It wasnt that unexpected a gain for the LDs - Lab being second before was an aberration as the town itself has been LD before and lab weak, and a well known former Con stood as Ind. I'd still have had Con as favourites but either LD or Ind getting in would not have been massively surprising. But they did still need a big rise in their vote, it is true.
Yes, as I said. Former con split the vote (plus some local decisions not to their advantage) and a good performance by LD. It was not the likeliest outcome given where Con started, but it was always seen as winnable this time around.
Another result that rather undermines the narrative that the LD revival is fuelled by Labour defectors, and that Tory defectors are going to the Brexit Party.
The Rhondda result was good for Plaid Cymru, too. Pushing down into (very) Old Labour territory, although there have been one or two such results over the years, which have been reversed subsequently.
It is hard to disagree with that. I mean, one of the parties is led by a thicko who grew up in a mansion, went to boarding school, got a series of sinecure jobs and then a safe seat in Parliament through his dad's connections and ascended the leadership because he was friends with a rich and powerful outsider.
And to make matters worse, the Tories look set to elect Boris Johnson.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
The Rhondda result was good for Plaid Cymru, too. Pushing down into (very) Old Labour territory, although there have been one or two such results over the years, which have been reversed subsequently.
IIRC, they took the Assembly seat there in '99, but not since.
The problem with Plaid is that where the SNP have artfully become 'the Scottish party,' Plaid are handicapped by being the party of Welshness, especially the Welsh language, rather than Wales. It makes them totemic for maybe 20% of the population and toxic to 75%. That doesn't leave much room for expansion.
Perhaps Adam Price can change that (the circumstances could hardly be more propitious) but I don't quite credit him with that energy.
It is hard to disagree with that. I mean, one of the parties is led by a thicko who grew up in a mansion, went to boarding school, got a series of sinecure jobs and then a safe seat in Parliament through his dad's connections and ascended the leadership because he was friends with a rich and powerful outsider.
And to make matters worse, the Tories look set to elect Boris Johnson.
The public school Stalinists at the top of Labour are just another manifestation of the problem, you are quite right.
The Rhondda result was good for Plaid Cymru, too. Pushing down into (very) Old Labour territory, although there have been one or two such results over the years, which have been reversed subsequently.
IIRC, they took the Assembly seat there in '99, but not since.
The problem with Plaid is that where the SNP have artfully become 'the Scottish party,' Plaid are handicapped by being the party of Welshness, especially the Welsh language, rather than Wales. It makes them totemic for maybe 20% of the population and toxic to 75%. That doesn't leave much room for expansion.
Perhaps Adam Price can change that (the circumstances could hardly be more propitious) but I don't quite credit him with that energy.
Standing down in Brecon is a very encouraging move - certainly for anyone fearing some sort of Tory-BXP stitch up. For the by-election Plaid, as well as the Greens, the Indy MPs and Renew are all supporting the LibDem candidate.
I am sure there's a promise of a future quid pro in there for Plaid, and guess that their sitting MPs wont be facing a LibDem challenge next time.
The Rhondda result was good for Plaid Cymru, too. Pushing down into (very) Old Labour territory, although there have been one or two such results over the years, which have been reversed subsequently.
IIRC, they took the Assembly seat there in '99, but not since.
The problem with Plaid is that where the SNP have artfully become 'the Scottish party,' Plaid are handicapped by being the party of Welshness, especially the Welsh language, rather than Wales. It makes them totemic for maybe 20% of the population and toxic to 75%. That doesn't leave much room for expansion.
Perhaps Adam Price can change that (the circumstances could hardly be more propitious) but I don't quite credit him with that energy.
Standing down in Brecon is a very encouraging move - certainly for anyone fearing some sort of Tory-BXP stitch up. For the by-election Plaid, as well as the Greens, the Indy MPs and Renew are all supporting the LibDem candidate.
I am sure there's a promise of a future quid pro in there for Plaid, and guess that their sitting MPs wont be facing a LibDem challenge next time.
If the Liberal Democrats do not challenge in Ceredigion, there will be a riot. As for Plaid standing down, interesting though it is as I have said before I doubt if it will make any practical difference.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Under what circumstances could there NOT be a General Election in 2019 ?
Agreed. All roads lead there, theres too many crunch moments and not enough room to kick the can as easily. Simply not wanting one may not be enough when decisions which will lead to defeat are inevitable.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Is it just me but are the two main parties getting a disproportionately severe rollicking in the media? I mean sure, for them both to be polling 20% is bad and they've failed on brexit. But I don't feel BXP or LDs have had this level of scrutiny yet, and both of their brexit policies have their own problems...
The Rhondda result was good for Plaid Cymru, too. Pushing down into (very) Old Labour territory, although there have been one or two such results over the years, which have been reversed subsequently.
IIRC, they took the Assembly seat there in '99, but not since.
The problem with Plaid is that where the SNP have artfully become 'the Scottish party,' Plaid are handicapped by being the party of Welshness, especially the Welsh language, rather than Wales. It makes them totemic for maybe 20% of the population and toxic to 75%. That doesn't leave much room for expansion.
Perhaps Adam Price can change that (the circumstances could hardly be more propitious) but I don't quite credit him with that energy.
Standing down in Brecon is a very encouraging move - certainly for anyone fearing some sort of Tory-BXP stitch up. For the by-election Plaid, as well as the Greens, the Indy MPs and Renew are all supporting the LibDem candidate.
I am sure there's a promise of a future quid pro in there for Plaid, and guess that their sitting MPs wont be facing a LibDem challenge next time.
If the Liberal Democrats do not challenge in Ceredigion, there will be a riot. As for Plaid standing down, interesting though it is as I have said before I doubt if it will make any practical difference.
Have a good morning.
Maybe they'll get a free run in the Valleys, then, who knows? It's still good news, and wont do the campaign any harm at all.
If there is what would surely be a Brexit GE this year, a united front from the Remain parties will be a considerable help, not least in further sidelining Labour and highlighting their irrelevance.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
and they are not proven Tory members either...
The use of Conhome is highly questionable it's been UKIPhome for years.
Stunning result for the Lib Dems, overturning s 65% Con vote share last time. Arguably even worse for Labour who saw a decent 20% vote share all but wiped out.
The LDs have a real opportunity to displace Labour as the main opposition to the Conservatives, but they need to do a deal with the Greens.
Under what circumstances could there NOT be a General Election in 2019 ?
There will not be an election in 2019 if no-one calls one. Let us assume OGH's header is right and PM Boris will want to hang on to the job. That means no election from that quarter.
Which leaves us with the government losing a confidence vote. That might lead to PM Corbyn, who might also want to hang on for a bit, so no election.
Or it might lead to an election.
But there is not much time to call this vote (and win it). Boris (or Hunt) will become PM on 24th and recess begins on 25th July so that means he is safe till September (and has all summer to shore up DUP support) then there will be another week or two off for party conferences. So there are probably only about two months to steer through. An emergency budget can waste a week, and then there is Brexit itself, when there might be no appetite for piling on additional chaos.
ETA: and even calling an election in late Autumn might mean polling day is next year.
Is it just me but are the two main parties getting a disproportionately severe rollicking in the media? I mean sure, for them both to be polling 20% is bad and they've failed on brexit. But I don't feel BXP or LDs have had this level of scrutiny yet, and both of their brexit policies have their own problems...
Yes, although Cable and Swinson come off very badly in this story:
Is it just me but are the two main parties getting a disproportionately severe rollicking in the media? I mean sure, for them both to be polling 20% is bad and they've failed on brexit. But I don't feel BXP or LDs have had this level of scrutiny yet, and both of their brexit policies have their own problems...
BXP does not have a Brexit policy. Farage never has had one, and nor has the Conservative ERG. That is what got us into this mess. None of the groups advocating Brexit have a settled view of what post-Brexit Britain should look like or how to achieve it. It's either Brexit means Brexit or bloody unicorns.
My view is that whenever an election comes the Tories will be hammered.
So, if there is an election to come, it will be forced on Boris.
I can't argue with that Casino, but who do you see winning?
Labour, with a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the SNP and LibDems. I don't see the latter going anywhere near a 'proper' coalition for a while.
At least two major assumptions there - firstly that Labour wins more seats than the LibDems and secondly that The LibDems would be prepared to give their suppost to a Marxist Labour-led Government.
Lib Dems are going nowhere, small bunch of useless duffers. Anyone who thinks they are the answer needs locking up and the key thrown away.
In last night's other two by-elections, the Middlesborough one was the predicted Indyfest, with the two Indys taking 85% of the vote.
The Chorley one saw a Tory hold with 63% of the vote, up 17% (UKIP not standing lost 13%), in a ward where Labour has previously been in contention. Labour down 3%: a further crumb of evidence for its poor standing in latest polls.
Ummm: that chart shows that Labour has lost almost equal numbers of Remain and Leave voters.
25 percentage points of remainers vs 14 percentage points of leavers. Labour losing more remainer votes. Or. Two-thirds of the starting level of leavers vs half of the starting level of remainers. Labour losing proportionately more of its leaver support than remainer.
Perfectly balanced triangulation by the Dear Leader.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
and they are not proven Tory members either...
The use of Conhome is highly questionable it's been UKIPhome for years.
Swiveleyed Home would be more accurate. Moderate Tory members, councillors and MPs largely ignore it
My view is that whenever an election comes the Tories will be hammered.
So, if there is an election to come, it will be forced on Boris.
I can't argue with that Casino, but who do you see winning?
Labour, with a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the SNP and LibDems. I don't see the latter going anywhere near a 'proper' coalition for a while.
At least two major assumptions there - firstly that Labour wins more seats than the LibDems and secondly that The LibDems would be prepared to give their suppost to a Marxist Labour-led Government.
Lib Dems are going nowhere, small bunch of useless duffers. Anyone who thinks they are the answer needs locking up and the key thrown away.
Once upon a time, the SNP were a small group of bitter turnip throwers....
My view is that whenever an election comes the Tories will be hammered.
So, if there is an election to come, it will be forced on Boris.
I can't argue with that Casino, but who do you see winning?
Labour, with a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the SNP and LibDems. I don't see the latter going anywhere near a 'proper' coalition for a while.
At least two major assumptions there - firstly that Labour wins more seats than the LibDems and secondly that The LibDems would be prepared to give their suppost to a Marxist Labour-led Government.
Lib Dems are going nowhere, small bunch of useless duffers. Anyone who thinks they are the answer needs locking up and the key thrown away.
Once upon a time, the SNP were a small group of bitter turnip throwers....
Times change. malcolm.
Now they are a large group of bitter turnip throwers. The SNP is just the EDL in tartan.
It is hard to disagree with that. I mean, one of the parties is led by a thicko who grew up in a mansion, went to boarding school, got a series of sinecure jobs and then a safe seat in Parliament through his dad's connections and ascended the leadership because he was friends with a rich and powerful outsider.
And to make matters worse, the Tories look set to elect Boris Johnson.
It is hard to disagree with the article except that it does not really tell us much and since it could have been written almost any time in the past couple of centuries, has little explanatory power.
Isabel Hardman's Why We Get the Wrong Politicians blames the way parliament operates. James Ball's Bluffocracy blames PPE in politics and the media, with its emphasis on presenting a case rather than properly researching and establishing one. There may be much in this; it overlaps with Younge's piece but is perhaps more insightful.
My own view, for what little it is worth, is that the removal of policy debates from party conferences means bad policies are not examined before they are presented to parliament, and as Hardman notes, once a government bill is presented, that is usually it.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
and they are not proven Tory members either...
The use of Conhome is highly questionable it's been UKIPhome for years.
Yougov at the end of last month had it Boris 74% Hunt 26% in their Tory members' poll so Hunt has if anything narrowed the gap slightly.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
and they are not proven Tory members either...
The use of Conhome is highly questionable it's been UKIPhome for years.
Swiveleyed Home would be more accurate. Moderate Tory members, councillors and MPs largely ignore it
Which was why Hunt did a ConHome question and answer session yesterday and has paid for adverts on the site?
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
and they are not proven Tory members either...
The use of Conhome is highly questionable it's been UKIPhome for years.
Yougov at the end of last month had it Boris 74% Hunt 26% in their Tory members' poll so Hunt has if anything narrowed the gap slightly.
From the point of view of Conservative members, since neither man can be fully trusted on Brexit but there is barely a fag-paper between them anyway, the choice of new leader is down to electability.
GE polls (of all voters, not just Tory members) show Boris hammers Corbyn, so Boris it must be.
Until the polls showed Hunt catching and perhaps even overtaking Boris on electability. Fortunately for Boris, Hunt just sabotaged his chances with the wider public, so Eton will have its twentieth prime minister.
My view is that whenever an election comes the Tories will be hammered.
So, if there is an election to come, it will be forced on Boris.
I can't argue with that Casino, but who do you see winning?
Labour, with a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the SNP and LibDems. I don't see the latter going anywhere near a 'proper' coalition for a while.
At least two major assumptions there - firstly that Labour wins more seats than the LibDems and secondly that The LibDems would be prepared to give their suppost to a Marxist Labour-led Government.
Lib Dems are going nowhere, small bunch of useless duffers. Anyone who thinks they are the answer needs locking up and the key thrown away.
Once upon a time, the SNP were a small group of bitter turnip throwers....
Times change. malcolm.
Now they are a large group of bitter turnip throwers. The SNP is just the EDL in tartan.
I've faced the EDL on the streets in an attempt to stop them intimidating people who look different to them. My local MP is now from the SNP (I moved). The idea of any equivalence between the two is more risible than even the most risible madness to emerge from Brexit.
Edit: Unless, of course, you were referring to the English Disco Lovers, in which case I withdraw my comment.
My view is that whenever an election comes the Tories will be hammered.
So, if there is an election to come, it will be forced on Boris.
I can't argue with that Casino, but who do you see winning?
Labour, with a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the SNP and LibDems. I don't see the latter going anywhere near a 'proper' coalition for a while.
At least two major assumptions there - firstly that Labour wins more seats than the LibDems and secondly that The LibDems would be prepared to give their suppost to a Marxist Labour-led Government.
Lib Dems are going nowhere, small bunch of useless duffers. Anyone who thinks they are the answer needs locking up and the key thrown away.
Once upon a time, the SNP were a small group of bitter turnip throwers....
Times change. malcolm.
Now they are a large group of bitter turnip throwers. The SNP is just the EDL in tartan.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
and they are not proven Tory members either...
The use of Conhome is highly questionable it's been UKIPhome for years.
Yougov at the end of last month had it Boris 74% Hunt 26% in their Tory members' poll so Hunt has if anything narrowed the gap slightly.
From the point of view of Conservative members, since neither man can be fully trusted on Brexit but there is barely a fag-paper between them anyway, the choice of new leader is down to electability.
GE polls (of all voters, not just Tory members) show Boris hammers Corbyn, so Boris it must be.
Until the polls showed Hunt catching and perhaps even overtaking Boris on electability. Fortunately for Boris, Hunt just sabotaged his chances with the wider public, so Eton will have its twentieth prime minister.
Yougov yesterday also had Boris with higher favourables than Hunt, May, Corbyn and the Labour and Tory parties
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
Do you think that either Conhome or the Tory party may have altered a smidgen in the last 14 years?
Ummm: that chart shows that Labour has lost almost equal numbers of Remain and Leave voters.
25 percentage points of remainers vs 14 percentage points of leavers. Labour losing more remainer votes. Or. Two-thirds of the starting level of leavers vs half of the starting level of remainers. Labour losing proportionately more of its leaver support than remainer.
Perfectly balanced triangulation by the Dear Leader.
The trend is clear though - labour is becoming a Remain party...
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
Do you think that either Conhome or the Tory party may have altered a smidgen in the last 14 years?
Yes, the Tory Party has become even more Eurosceptic, especially the membership and as Yougov had Boris on 74% ConHome looks entirely within the right ball park.
My view is that whenever an election comes the Tories will be hammered.
So, if there is an election to come, it will be forced on Boris.
I can't argue with that Casino, but who do you see winning?
Labour, with a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the SNP and LibDems. I don't see the latter going anywhere near a 'proper' coalition for a while.
At least two major assumptions there - firstly that Labour wins more seats than the LibDems and secondly that The LibDems would be prepared to give their suppost to a Marxist Labour-led Government.
Lib Dems are going nowhere, small bunch of useless duffers. Anyone who thinks they are the answer needs locking up and the key thrown away.
Once upon a time, the SNP were a small group of bitter turnip throwers....
Times change. malcolm.
They do indeed, but the current bunch of Lib Dems have shown ho talent that would encourage anyone to think they could run a bath , never mind the country. Only desperation could make you choose them at this point. When they started their rise the SNP were showing talent and promise that they could indeed tie their own shoelaces. Even they are getting frayed at the moment, they need to up their game.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
Why are you so desperate to publish anything that has an optimistic outlook for your Chosen One? Surely if you are so certain it is not necessary. Quoting polls that are not polls and referring to ConHome when it used to be followed by moderate Tories in 2005, and isn't now, just makes you look silly
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
No-one is objecting to your "reporting" them.
But you should report them for what they are, not try and misrepresent them as polls, which the site itself does not do.
Since you present yourself as some sort of polling expert, you ought to see the point right away.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
No-one is objecting to your "reporting" them.
But you should report them for what they are, not try and misrepresent them as polls, which the site itself does not do.
Since you present yourself as some sort of polling expert, you ought to see the point right away.
Given on its record so far ConHome has a better record than most pollsters and records full data on whether participants are members or not and their level of activity how or what I report them as really makes little difference other than to those who dislike their results.
My view is that whenever an election comes the Tories will be hammered.
So, if there is an election to come, it will be forced on Boris.
I can't argue with that Casino, but who do you see winning?
Labour, with a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the SNP and LibDems. I don't see the latter going anywhere near a 'proper' coalition for a while.
At least two major assumptions there - firstly that Labour wins more seats than the LibDems and secondly that The LibDems would be prepared to give their suppost to a Marxist Labour-led Government.
Lib Dems are going nowhere, small bunch of useless duffers. Anyone who thinks they are the answer needs locking up and the key thrown away.
Once upon a time, the SNP were a small group of bitter turnip throwers....
Times change. malcolm.
They do indeed, but the current bunch of Lib Dems have shown ho talent that would encourage anyone to think they could run a bath , never mind the country. Only desperation could make you choose them at this point. When they started their rise the SNP were showing talent and promise that they could indeed tie their own shoelaces. Even they are getting frayed at the moment, they need to up their game.
They have a lot more talent in their ranks than twelve Tory or Labour MPs chosen at random. Largely because they have all fought their way to election; the LibDems don't have the sort of safe seats that provide the big parties' numpties with jobs for life.
The same probably goes for the SNP, given that most of their seats were won relatively recently, but I don't know the individuals well enough to comment. The few that are prominent in parliament seem decent and capable enough.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
Why are you so desperate to publish anything that has an optimistic outlook for your Chosen One? Surely if you are so certain it is not necessary. Quoting polls that are not polls and referring to ConHome when it used to be followed by moderate Tories in 2005, and isn't now, just makes you look silly
Rubbish, I know you are a diehard Remainer throwing your toys out the pram this morning and having a big tantrum because your man Hunt is not ahead and looks set to be well beaten but no apologies from me, I report data and as Yougov has showed ConHome is entirely within the right ball park for this leadership race
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
No-one is objecting to your "reporting" them.
But you should report them for what they are, not try and misrepresent them as polls, which the site itself does not do.
Since you present yourself as some sort of polling expert, you ought to see the point right away.
Given on its record so far ConHome has a better record than most pollsters and records full data on whether participants are members or not and their level of activity how or what I report them as really makes little difference other than to those who dislike their results.
Or pedants.
Reporting them as polls will upset pedants because they literally are not polls.
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
No-one is objecting to your "reporting" them.
But you should report them for what they are, not try and misrepresent them as polls, which the site itself does not do.
Since you present yourself as some sort of polling expert, you ought to see the point right away.
Given on its record so far ConHome has a better record than most pollsters and records full data on whether participants are members or not and their level of activity how or what I report them as really makes little difference other than to those who dislike their results.
If you think passing off fake polls as polls on this site "makes little difference", you haven't been paying attention. Polling companies are covered by standards and codes of conduct that do not apply to the likes of ConHome.
Anyway, what is the point of your presenting endless poll and survey findings down to the last per cent if you can't be bothered to describe them accurately in the first place?
Ummm: that chart shows that Labour has lost almost equal numbers of Remain and Leave voters.
25 percentage points of remainers vs 14 percentage points of leavers. Labour losing more remainer votes. Or. Two-thirds of the starting level of leavers vs half of the starting level of remainers. Labour losing proportionately more of its leaver support than remainer.
Perfectly balanced triangulation by the Dear Leader.
The trend is clear though - labour is becoming a Remain party...
I think the challenge that Mr. Thicky isn't able to understand is that it is perhaps the case that Brexit is not that important an issue for his tribal base, so he might not lose support from labour supporters who voted to leave if the party moves to Remain, but he loses shedloads of more liberally minded labour supporters who voted Remain if he carries on his ambiguous fence sitting
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
Why are you so desperate to publish anything that has an optimistic outlook for your Chosen One? Surely if you are so certain it is not necessary. Quoting polls that are not polls and referring to ConHome when it used to be followed by moderate Tories in 2005, and isn't now, just makes you look silly
Rubbish, I know you are a diehard Remainer throwing your toys out the pram this morning and having a big tantrum because your man Hunt is not ahead and looks set to be well beaten but no apologies from me, I report data and as Yougov has showed ConHome is entirely within the right ball park for this leadership race
You "diehard Tories" have a surprise coming. You might even discover what diehard means.
Ummm: that chart shows that Labour has lost almost equal numbers of Remain and Leave voters.
25 percentage points of remainers vs 14 percentage points of leavers. Labour losing more remainer votes. Or. Two-thirds of the starting level of leavers vs half of the starting level of remainers. Labour losing proportionately more of its leaver support than remainer.
Perfectly balanced triangulation by the Dear Leader.
The trend is clear though - labour is becoming a Remain party...
If the trend is followed then Labour are becoming the third largest Remain party...
I can’t see how a general election can work well for the Conservatives at present, being torn apart by the wild horses of the Brexit party and the Lib Dems. But since every decision they’ve made recently has been the worst one possible for themselves, perhaps they will go for it anyway.
Ummm: that chart shows that Labour has lost almost equal numbers of Remain and Leave voters.
25 percentage points of remainers vs 14 percentage points of leavers. Labour losing more remainer votes. Or. Two-thirds of the starting level of leavers vs half of the starting level of remainers. Labour losing proportionately more of its leaver support than remainer.
Perfectly balanced triangulation by the Dear Leader.
The trend is clear though - labour is becoming a Remain party...
If the trend is followed then Labour are becoming the third largest Remain party...
If the trend continues, Labour will be extinct by Christmas!
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
Why are you so desperate to publish anything that has an optimistic outlook for your Chosen One? Surely if you are so certain it is not necessary. Quoting polls that are not polls and referring to ConHome when it used to be followed by moderate Tories in 2005, and isn't now, just makes you look silly
Rubbish, I know you are a diehard Remainer throwing your toys out the pram this morning and having a big tantrum because your man Hunt is not ahead and looks set to be well beaten but no apologies from me, I report data and as Yougov has showed ConHome is entirely within the right ball park for this leadership race
Well unlike your idol, I have principles. My dear old Mum, used to say, you judge a person by the company they keep. I guess you can use a similar approach to the people who follow political figures. So what do you like best about Mr. Johnson? His lies, his treatment of women, his abject incompetence? Maybe it is all these things that you identify with. You could maybe in fact be a Labour troll who know that putting a moron in charge of the Tory party is the best way to kill it. Boris Johnson is the Tory equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn. Unfit for office, high or low.
In last night's other two by-elections, the Middlesborough one was the predicted Indyfest, with the two Indys taking 85% of the vote.
The Chorley one saw a Tory hold with 63% of the vote, up 17% (UKIP not standing lost 13%), in a ward where Labour has previously been in contention. Labour down 3%: a further crumb of evidence for its poor standing in latest polls.
The Tory was the deceased Councillors wife which often produces a sympathy vote
I can’t see how a general election can work well for the Conservatives at present, being torn apart by the wild horses of the Brexit party and the Lib Dems. But since every decision they’ve made recently has been the worst one possible for themselves, perhaps they will go for it anyway.
The Tories lead both the most recent polls, Labour are 4th in the latest
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
No-one is objecting to your "reporting" them.
But you should report them for what they are, not try and misrepresent them as polls, which the site itself does not do.
Since you present yourself as some sort of polling expert, you ought to see the point right away.
Given on its record so far ConHome has a better record than most pollsters and records full data on whether participants are members or not and their level of activity how or what I report them as really makes little difference other than to those who dislike their results.
If you think passing off fake polls as polls on this site "makes little difference", you haven't been paying attention. Polling companies are covered by standards and codes of conduct that do not apply to the likes of ConHome.
Anyway, what is the point of your presenting endless poll and survey findings down to the last per cent if you can't be bothered to describe them accurately in the first place?
Don't come out with that rubbish, ConHome is a perfectly accurate survey as shown by 2005 when it got the result spot on, if it was so hard right biases it would have had Davis ahead.
Despite your patronising diehard Remainer tone ConHome will be proved right by the end of the month
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
Survey!
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
Given ConHome were spot on in their final 2005 Cameron v Davis Tory members' survey I will keep reporting them whether people like it or not as ConHome has a record of accuracy when surveying Tory members as shown by their accuracy in 2005
Why are you so desperate to publish anything that has an optimistic outlook for your Chosen One? Surely if you are so certain it is not necessary. Quoting polls that are not polls and referring to ConHome when it used to be followed by moderate Tories in 2005, and isn't now, just makes you look silly
Rubbish, I know you are a diehard Remainer throwing your toys out the pram this morning and having a big tantrum because your man Hunt is not ahead and looks set to be well beaten but no apologies from me, I report data and as Yougov has showed ConHome is entirely within the right ball park for this leadership race
Well unlike your idol, I have principles. My dear old Mum, used to say, you judge a person by the company they keep. I guess you can use a similar approach to the people who follow political figures. So what do you like best about Mr. Johnson? His lies, his treatment of women, his abject incompetence? Maybe it is all these things that you identify with. You could maybe in fact be a Labour troll who know that putting a moron in charge of the Tory party is the best way to kill it. Boris Johnson is the Tory equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn. Unfit for office, high or low.
What will kill the Tories and replace them with the Brexit Party is refusing to.commit to deliver Brexit as you seem determined to do
The Rhondda result was good for Plaid Cymru, too. Pushing down into (very) Old Labour territory, although there have been one or two such results over the years, which have been reversed subsequently.
IIRC, they took the Assembly seat there in '99, but not since.
The problem with Plaid is that where the SNP have artfully become 'the Scottish party,' Plaid are handicapped by being the party of Welshness, especially the Welsh language, rather than Wales. It makes them totemic for maybe 20% of the population and toxic to 75%. That doesn't leave much room for expansion.
Perhaps Adam Price can change that (the circumstances could hardly be more propitious) but I don't quite credit him with that energy.
Standing down in Brecon is a very encouraging move - certainly for anyone fearing some sort of Tory-BXP stitch up. For the by-election Plaid, as well as the Greens, the Indy MPs and Renew are all supporting the LibDem candidate.
I am sure there's a promise of a future quid pro in there for Plaid, and guess that their sitting MPs wont be facing a LibDem challenge next time.
Including Ben Lake? Ceredigion was a Lib & LibDem seat from way back, although Plaid held it for a couple of Parliaments.
Comments
Its originator didn’t factor in the level of panic in the ranks at the end of her own spell in the job.
60-70% 11/8
50-60% 11/4
70-80% 3/1
40-50% 8/1
over 80% 20/1
Under 40% 33/1
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/05/britain-run-self-serving-clique-crisis-narrow-section
And to make matters worse, the Tories look set to elect Boris Johnson.
Boris 67% Hunt 29%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/07/our-last-next-tory-leader-survey-before-ballot-papers-arrive-finds-johnson-on-67-per-cent-and-hunt-on-29-per-cent.html
So a resounding Boris win if true and he beats Hunt by more than the 61% to 39% IDS beat Clarke in 2001 and by about the same margin as the 68% to 32% by which Cameron beat Davis in 2005.
The problem with Plaid is that where the SNP have artfully become 'the Scottish party,' Plaid are handicapped by being the party of Welshness, especially the Welsh language, rather than Wales. It makes them totemic for maybe 20% of the population and toxic to 75%. That doesn't leave much room for expansion.
Perhaps Adam Price can change that (the circumstances could hardly be more propitious) but I don't quite credit him with that energy.
I am sure there's a promise of a future quid pro in there for Plaid, and guess that their sitting MPs wont be facing a LibDem challenge next time.
Have a good morning.
Otherwise, Shadsy knows what he’s doing. As usual.
Repeat after me: A survey is not a poll.
It's probably right. But it's still not a poll and you shouldn't be misrepresenting it as such.
If there is what would surely be a Brexit GE this year, a united front from the Remain parties will be a considerable help, not least in further sidelining Labour and highlighting their irrelevance.
Stunning result for the Lib Dems, overturning s 65% Con vote share last time. Arguably even worse for Labour who saw a decent 20% vote share all but wiped out.
The LDs have a real opportunity to displace Labour as the main opposition to the Conservatives, but they need to do a deal with the Greens.
Which leaves us with the government losing a confidence vote. That might lead to PM Corbyn, who might also want to hang on for a bit, so no election.
Or it might lead to an election.
But there is not much time to call this vote (and win it). Boris (or Hunt) will become PM on 24th and recess begins on 25th July so that means he is safe till September (and has all summer to shore up DUP support) then there will be another week or two off for party conferences. So there are probably only about two months to steer through. An emergency budget can waste a week, and then there is Brexit itself, when there might be no appetite for piling on additional chaos.
ETA: and even calling an election in late Autumn might mean polling day is next year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/05/how-britain-can-help-you-get-away-with-stealing-millions-a-five-step-guide
The Chorley one saw a Tory hold with 63% of the vote, up 17% (UKIP not standing lost 13%), in a ward where Labour has previously been in contention. Labour down 3%: a further crumb of evidence for its poor standing in latest polls.
Or.
Two-thirds of the starting level of leavers vs half of the starting level of remainers. Labour losing proportionately more of its leaver support than remainer.
Perfectly balanced triangulation by the Dear Leader.
Times change. malcolm.
Isabel Hardman's Why We Get the Wrong Politicians blames the way parliament operates. James Ball's Bluffocracy blames PPE in politics and the media, with its emphasis on presenting a case rather than properly researching and establishing one. There may be much in this; it overlaps with Younge's piece but is perhaps more insightful.
My own view, for what little it is worth, is that the removal of policy debates from party conferences means bad policies are not examined before they are presented to parliament, and as Hardman notes, once a government bill is presented, that is usually it.
Still a resounding Boris win of course
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/25/incredible-rise-and-fall-and-rise-boris-johnson
GE polls (of all voters, not just Tory members) show Boris hammers Corbyn, so Boris it must be.
Until the polls showed Hunt catching and perhaps even overtaking Boris on electability. Fortunately for Boris, Hunt just sabotaged his chances with the wider public, so Eton will have its twentieth prime minister.
Edit: Unless, of course, you were referring to the English Disco Lovers, in which case I withdraw my comment.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/04/voting-intention-labour-falls-4th-place
As MalcG says, Boris landslide
Only desperation could make you choose them at this point.
When they started their rise the SNP were showing talent and promise that they could indeed tie their own shoelaces. Even they are getting frayed at the moment, they need to up their game.
But you should report them for what they are, not try and misrepresent them as polls, which the site itself does not do.
Since you present yourself as some sort of polling expert, you ought to see the point right away.
Nothing seems to move the odds though.
The same probably goes for the SNP, given that most of their seats were won relatively recently, but I don't know the individuals well enough to comment. The few that are prominent in parliament seem decent and capable enough.
Reporting them as polls will upset pedants because they literally are not polls.
Anyway, what is the point of your presenting endless poll and survey findings down to the last per cent if you can't be bothered to describe them accurately in the first place?
New Thread
Despite your patronising diehard Remainer tone ConHome will be proved right by the end of the month