politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LD battle is a lot tighter than the current betting sugges
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I think funds and personnel limit targeting to about 50 seats, though of course it is possible to win non -target seats as indeed did Davey.IanB2 said:
I'd be starting to think about targeting rather more, if things stay as they are. If they don't and start to fade, then yes 30-40 is a decent betting range.Foxy said:
1/3Charles said:
What odds will you give me for the LD on less than 50 seats (allowing margin of error for SNP)?Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.
While 50 is a reasonable target, 30 -40 is more realistic.0 -
I suspect that while some people have a full- and a part-time job....... I did for a while.........many others have two or more part-time ones.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Surely it's not surprising that most second jobs are part time. How could you work two full time jobs?Alistair said:
Not even close to peak WaPo "fact" check.TheJezziah said:I don't have much of a preference from the outside, hard to tell them much apart as Lib Dem leaders although I haven't really paid any attention.
Going off topic I enjoyed this 'fact' check
twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1145747419264503808
https://twitter.com/spectreofmarx/status/1145914694189768704?s=19
Because part-time, or 'reduced hours' is all that's available.0 -
It was unfortunately a small group to choose a leader from. The Lib Dems would have been wise to have opened up the leadership contest at least to any ex-MP.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems' choice is more difficult than it looks. They need to decide in essence whether they want to look like the establishment, since no one else wants to, or whether they want to look like yet another type of insurgent disruptor. Given that their recent success has basically come from pursuing the second option, they should go for the candidate who is less worried about looking Prime Ministerial and more able to play unfair and dirty.
That suggests Jo Swinson to me.0 -
But isnt this just jobs miracle denialism? We get it here in the UK which also has full employment. Its the left's answer to good news 'yeah but...'OnlyLivingBoy said:
Surely it's not surprising that most second jobs are part time. How could you work two full time jobs?Alistair said:
Not even close to peak WaPo "fact" check.TheJezziah said:I don't have much of a preference from the outside, hard to tell them much apart as Lib Dem leaders although I haven't really paid any attention.
Going off topic I enjoyed this 'fact' check
twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1145747419264503808
https://twitter.com/spectreofmarx/status/1145914694189768704?s=190 -
I’m confused. You said they are “likely to be the third party in Westminster” unless you are expecting one party to have 500+ seats that doesn’t happen at 30-40 seats. 50 is possible if the SNP slip back.Foxy said:
1/3Charles said:
What odds will you give me for the LD on less than 50 seats (allowing margin of error for SNP)?Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.
While 50 is a reasonable target, 30 -40 is more realistic.
So you are being very greedy on your margin!0 -
Turnips put down roots as @malcolmg would advise us .... however I'm unsure, as he is a PRAT, (President Regius Ayrshire Turnipholders ) whether being a turnip is a dire insult or a fawning compliment ....Foxy said:Once Chukka has been a Lib Dem for 5 years then he could be worth considering, but not before. He is a welcome addition, but needs to put down roots.
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Or that system, watchamacallit, where people vote, and their votes are reflected in political representation. You know, democracy.DecrepitJohnL said:
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
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HYUFD said:
No he isn't as he is soon likely to earning hundreds of thousands of dollars in a Wall Street law firmnotme2 said:
A Harvard law graduate with $120,000 of student loan debt is much worse off than a subsistence farming villager in India....edmundintokyo said:
Dunno, it could easily be half; I mean I guess pretty much anyone with a mortgage is going to have negative assets until it's pretty close to paid off, not to mention anyone youngish with student loan debt. It just makes sense for large parts of the population who still have a lot of earning ahead of them to borrow against their future earnings. Then even as you get older, a lot of your wealth should be building up in your pension, and I'm not sure if they count that...TheJezziah said:
Maybe I've badly got the wrong end of this but surely then he would pick a higher percentage... if 50% own nothing then the bottom positive 20 or so would probably still not add up to those top 3...
The tweet itself is badly worded as he implies the whole 50% has no assets (net) but if you click the article it actually says some of those 50% have no assets.
But doesn't this show you how arbitrary and pointless this whole exercise is???
A somewhat less useless way of looking at it is that the top 3 people have (don't bet too much on my maths) basically $1000 per American, which is a sign of fairly humongous inequality, and also feels like something you could be taxing some more without doing too much damage to Jeff's incentive to get up and go into work tomorrow morning. They might also like to consider putting a windfall tax on exceedingly large divorce settlements...
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Have the LibDems seen a surge in funds over the past year commensurate with their resurrection from the political dead?Foxy said:
I think funds and personnel limit targeting to about 50 seats, though of course it is possible to win non -target seats as indeed did Davey.IanB2 said:
I'd be starting to think about targeting rather more, if things stay as they are. If they don't and start to fade, then yes 30-40 is a decent betting range.Foxy said:
1/3Charles said:
What odds will you give me for the LD on less than 50 seats (allowing margin of error for SNP)?Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.
While 50 is a reasonable target, 30 -40 is more realistic.0 -
Aaargh!!!!Scott_P said:0 -
There are only two parties now. Pro Brexit and anti. Being pro Brexit means you stand in line behind Boris Johnson Nigel Farage and Arlene Foster. You are therefore a nationalist and a xenophobe. Anything else is the Mussolini 'making the trains run on time gambit' and It doesn't wash.old_labour said:
Her natural home is in the Tory Party going by her record. I suspect she has not become a member because she is too grand for them.ydoethur said:
I can understand why under those circumstances you would find her annoying. A refusal to go to her natural home in the Labour Party must rankle.old_labour said:Whenever Jo Swinson is on TV, I have to press the mute button. I find her screeching voice very disagreeable plus she comes across as supercilious.
The only parties guaranteed not to line up behind the Johnson/Farage/Foster flag are the Lib Dems the Greens and the SNP. Someone claiming the moral high ground should ponder what their leader was doing when 'Screaching Swinson' was standing up against the xenophobes because he sure as Hell was nowhere anyone could see him.
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She sums up everything that is ghastly about the Brexit PartyOldKingCole said:
Aaargh!!!!Scott_P said:0 -
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Construction PMI plunges to 43 well into recession territory .
#Sunny Uplands!0 -
It will cause their pea brained editorial team a great headache. How will they decide between Princess Diana, Brexit and negative stories about immigrants?TheScreamingEagles said:
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Too early to tell...Benpointer said:
Yes that's correct.Nigelb said:
Does the GDPR not give you that right, irrespective of whether it is for "necessary business purposes" ?eek said:
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...
Whilst on the subject of GDPR... how did all the doom-mongers' predictions about how GDPR was going to wipe out legitimate businesses work out?0 -
Disgraceful behaviour by BP MEPs .
If they don’t want to be there then don’t turn up.0 -
That's fair - I just don't think she's nailed on as the favourite yet. I could be wrong.DecrepitJohnL said:
The big difference of opinion between the books and Betfair is Joe Biden who is generally 4/1 but 11/2 on the exchange after the gilt came off his gingerbread at the debate.Nigelb said:
Not unexpected, given how recent the debate was.NickPalmer said:Two more US polls, one of them showing Harris and Warren bouncing, the other not. Confusing:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Give it a few days.
I note Harris is below 4 on Betfair, which is just about as short as any candidate has yet been. Seems a bit overdone to me for now, FWIW.
Take Shadsy's prices: Harris 3/1; Warren 4/1; Biden 4/1; Buttigieg 6/1; Sanders 8/1; 20/1 or bigger the rest. That is an implied probability of 90 per cent one of the named candidates will win. If you think Harris is too short at 3/1 then who is too long? Maybe there is value in the rags and Amy Klobuchar will break through at the next debate. But if Biden drops out before Iowa (still eight months off), as some think he will (witness his longer price on Betfair) then Harris and all the others might be too long.0 -
TOPPING said:
Silly? SILLY? ME??????Nigelb said:
Which is pretty silly, as it implies that a centre party cannot accommodate anyone even slightly to the right of centre.TOPPING said:
It is characteristic of the two major parties under our FPTP system to believe that they have an automatic right to be the two largest coalitions of interests. It is also incredibly arrogant and undemocratic.
Well not quite at Boris levels.0 -
Speaking as a scientist using (pseudonymised) routine health records for epidemiology, GDPR actually simplified things for us by making the legal basis for what we do clearer and removing some of the grey areas where previously consent might have been sought 'just in case'.Nigelb said:
Too early to tell...Benpointer said:
Yes that's correct.Nigelb said:
Does the GDPR not give you that right, irrespective of whether it is for "necessary business purposes" ?eek said:
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...
Whilst on the subject of GDPR... how did all the doom-mongers' predictions about how GDPR was going to wipe out legitimate businesses work out?0 -
There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/biden_still_leads_among_democrats_but_support_is_down0 -
Agreed - in many respects, the GDPR is a very good idea, but no doubt there will be a lot of rough edges which will take forever to smooth out.Selebian said:
Speaking as a scientist using (pseudonymised) routine health records for epidemiology, GDPR actually simplified things for us by making the legal basis for what we do clearer and removing some of the grey areas where previously consent might have been sought 'just in case'.Nigelb said:
Too early to tell...Benpointer said:
Yes that's correct.Nigelb said:
Does the GDPR not give you that right, irrespective of whether it is for "necessary business purposes" ?eek said:
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...
Whilst on the subject of GDPR... how did all the doom-mongers' predictions about how GDPR was going to wipe out legitimate businesses work out?
Actual privacy is extremely difficult to ensure in the digital age - making it a legal right/obligation is essential if the term is to retain any meaning at all.0 -
In a head to head this polo had Harris ahead of BidenPulpstar said:There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/biden_still_leads_among_democrats_but_support_is_down0 -
Which leaves around 30% to play for in any event...Pulpstar said:There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/biden_still_leads_among_democrats_but_support_is_down0 -
The LDs know that if they elect a woman as leader they will get that particular monkey off their back. In Jo Swinson they have a suitable candidate of the female gender available. Therefore she would only be passed over if her male opponent was an utterly compelling proposition. Sir Ed Davey, for all his qualities, is not that.
My conclusion? Swinson is nailed on.1 -
For that relief...Nigelb said:TOPPING said:
Silly? SILLY? ME??????Nigelb said:
Which is pretty silly, as it implies that a centre party cannot accommodate anyone even slightly to the right of centre.TOPPING said:
It is characteristic of the two major parties under our FPTP system to believe that they have an automatic right to be the two largest coalitions of interests. It is also incredibly arrogant and undemocratic.
Well not quite at Boris levels.0 -
Can you imagine being so obsessed that you are triggered by Beethoven’s Ninth?1
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William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:0 -
There's a hole in your statement there.MikeSmithson said:
In a head to head this polo had Harris ahead of BidenPulpstar said:There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/biden_still_leads_among_democrats_but_support_is_down1 -
I think ultimately it could be a 4 way contest with Warren, Harris, Biden and Sanders.MikeSmithson said:
In a head to head this poll had Harris ahead of BidenPulpstar said:There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/biden_still_leads_among_democrats_but_support_is_down
The poll entrails seem to be paywalled.0 -
It's difficult for non Tory politicians to get air time while the leadership campaign is going on. Does any Labour supporter think it advances their cause to use any space they do get with Laura Pidcock?1
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You forget the next heatwave, flood, snowstorm FOR 10 DAYS, as predicted by their dedicated team of Russian mail order brides / meteorogolists.Nigel_Foremain said:
It will cause their pea brained editorial team a great headache. How will they decide between Princess Diana, Brexit and negative stories about immigrants?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Hague stood for the leadership before he was readyNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
He would have walked it now1 -
dont need to imagine I just read William GlennAlastairMeeks said:Can you imagine being so obsessed that you are triggered by Beethoven’s Ninth?
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Are they putting her on the TV more ? I bought £12 @ 51.25 and note she has shortened to 32/34.Roger said:It's difficult for non Tory politicians to get air time while the leadership campaign is going on. Does any Labour supporter think it advances their cause to use any space they do get with Laura Pidcock?
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A heart warming story. The antithesis of the xenophobia expressed by so many in this country recently. It is good to know there are some genuinely good people out there: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-480244700
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Their plans have more than a touch of "Take me to the emerald city, wizards will give us lemonade"* about them.AlastairMeeks said:Can you imagine being so obsessed that you are triggered by Beethoven’s Ninth?
* probably not the most obscuritan reference on PB today.0 -
SomeJackW said:
Have the LibDems seen a surge in funds over the past year commensurate with their resurrection from the political dead?Foxy said:
I think funds and personnel limit targeting to about 50 seats, though of course it is possible to win non -target seats as indeed did Davey.IanB2 said:
I'd be starting to think about targeting rather more, if things stay as they are. If they don't and start to fade, then yes 30-40 is a decent betting range.Foxy said:
1/3Charles said:
What odds will you give me for the LD on less than 50 seats (allowing margin of error for SNP)?Foxy said:
Times they are a changing...DecrepitJohnL said:
The LibDems are irrelevant at Westminster because they have only a handful of MPs. They are the fifth party (with the DUP's C&S agreement putting them a nose ahead).Foxy said:
Brexit make coalition with the Tories impossible, Corbyn makes coalition with Labour impossible. Corbyn and his clique are easier to change. Either way, lessons have been learnt from the previous Westminster Coalition. Worth noting that in devolved parliaments and local government, working with other parties is unremarkable. Why should Westminster be different? We do not need to restrict ourselves to the two seatbelts on offer.kle4 said:I think stodge makes an important point about the lds and coalition and not perpetuating paralysis, though I think he underestimates the trouble they could get in. The lds would prefer not to have to even deal with anyone else, in a way an extreme view as a rejection of compromise, because they get punished for doing so. But it will probably be unavoidable. What the members do this time as they cut deals will be interesting.
As the third party, LibDems would be on almost every news and current affairs programme for balance. Now they are not.
Nick Clegg's disastrous coalition agreement, where he prostituted the party's programme and principles for an AV referendum which he promptly lost, was one nail in the LibDems' coffin but the other is the rise of the SNP, who have five times as many MPs. That is the reality and worrying about yellow dresses and reaching out to other parties misses the point that until there is a recovery, they will remain irrelevant.
What they need is another Chat Show Charlie, and they ain't got one.
LDs are likely to be the third party in Westminster after the next election.
While 50 is a reasonable target, 30 -40 is more realistic.0 -
I am not sure. The membership are not interested in capability. They are obsessed by what they believe to be purity with respect to one subject. It is why they will put a muppet in charge who is the antithesis to what a true leader is; a man without principles who will say anything to advance the needs of his insatiable ego.Alanbrooke said:
Hague stood for the leadership before he was readyNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
He would have walked it now0 -
Well, it always makes me remember that scene from Die Hard; does that count?AlastairMeeks said:Can you imagine being so obsessed that you are triggered by Beethoven’s Ninth?
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Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.0
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Just saw the European Parliament coverage of BXP MEPs all turning their backs on the anthem during the opening ceremony.....it made me quite sad and frustrated as to the message it has sent....how have we got to this situation....0
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The fisherfolk all voted for self immolation.Scott_P said:
Why should my tax money bail out those fuckers?0 -
I think they will claim they only listen to Elgar. I imagine El Duce probably secretly listens to a bit of Tchaikovsky when he is reporting into Arron Banks, or possibly a bit of Wagner when he is dressing up.AlastairMeeks said:Can you imagine being so obsessed that you are triggered by Beethoven’s Ninth?
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Exactly . Same as the farmers , time to own the consequences of their votes .Gardenwalker said:
The fisherfolk all voted for self immolation.Scott_P said:
Why should my tax money bail out those fuckers?0 -
the Tories got rid of Osborne, who are you referring to ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not sure. The membership are not interested in capability. They are obsessed by what they believe to be purity with respect to one subject. It is why they will put a muppet in charge who is the antithesis to what a true leader is; a man without principles who will say anything to advance the needs of his insatiable ego.Alanbrooke said:
Hague stood for the leadership before he was readyNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
He would have walked it now0 -
A principle certainly held to previously by their glorious leader.nico67 said:Disgraceful behaviour by BP MEPs .
If they don’t want to be there then don’t turn up.0 -
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1145774857377984518
Why? Why do his supporters not see this? Labour under an effective, combative leader like Brown or Smith would be taking this shower apart at the dispatch box every day.0 -
just wait until Mcdonnell gets his hand on your walletGardenwalker said:
The fisherfolk all voted for self immolation.Scott_P said:
Why should my tax money bail out those fuckers?0 -
I understand the sentiment, but the farming community was certainly not unanimous in its' support of the madnessnico67 said:
Exactly . Same as the farmers , time to own the consequences of their votes .Gardenwalker said:
The fisherfolk all voted for self immolation.Scott_P said:
Why should my tax money bail out those fuckers?0 -
Claire Fox has a problem with Ode to Joy.AlastairMeeks said:Can you imagine being so obsessed that you are triggered by Beethoven’s Ninth?
It's genocide that she's fine with.0 -
Blame the voters, not the media or politicians who misled them?nico67 said:
Exactly . Same as the farmers , time to own the consequences of their votes .Gardenwalker said:
The fisherfolk all voted for self immolation.Scott_P said:
Why should my tax money bail out those fuckers?0 -
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. Hague fed the Eurosceptic beast with his "save the pound" campaign and created the conditions which led to the election of IDS as Tory leader. He also urged Cameron to hold the referendum, according to Tim Shipman's book.Nigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:0 -
51.25 to be what? To keep her seat? She makes the Labour Party sound moronic.Pulpstar said:
Are they putting her on the TV more ? I bought £12 @ 51.25 and note she has shortened to 32/34.Roger said:It's difficult for non Tory politicians to get air time while the leadership campaign is going on. Does any Labour supporter think it advances their cause to use any space they do get with Laura Pidcock?
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This may help:TheWhiteRabbit said:
I'm not sure I understand the Estonian set up.Benpointer said:
Yes that's correct.Nigelb said:
Does the GDPR not give you that right, irrespective of whether it is for "necessary business purposes" ?eek said:
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...
Whilst on the subject of GDPR... how did all the doom-mongers' predictions about how GDPR was going to wipe out legitimate businesses work out?
There's a database, presumably I consent to people checking it when I do things. What things? Is it available to my Landlord? My airline? Or is it just police?
https://www.aki.ee/en/inspectorate
Please note though that there is not one database, the system functions like a LAN with common secure access protocols, it is impossible to access any of the data without leaving a trace- its blockchain enabled. An individual owns their data and can challenge any access that is deemed to be illegitimate. There is a physical card, because it is a token plus two PIN access, but many now store their token on their mobile phones so the X-Road can be accessed without a physical ID.0 -
Mr. Voter, quite childish to turn their backs.
Such is politics.0 -
I'm not tempted to make a move now.Pulpstar said:Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.
Labour could be facing a GE in the autumn; or in 2022;
It could embrace Remain against No Deal, or the whole thing could be done and dusted by Xmas
Too many variables I think.0 -
Isn't she even lighter weight than the average in the current crop of politicians? I suppose there is a reasonable chance she will have a higher IQ than the current LoTO though, due to the bar being very low, so it would be a minor improvementPulpstar said:Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.
0 -
It isRoger said:
51.25 to be what? To keep her seat? She makes the Labour Party sound moronic.Pulpstar said:
Are they putting her on the TV more ? I bought £12 @ 51.25 and note she has shortened to 32/34.Roger said:It's difficult for non Tory politicians to get air time while the leadership campaign is going on. Does any Labour supporter think it advances their cause to use any space they do get with Laura Pidcock?
0 -
Sorry they could have done the research and realized they were being duped . I have zero sympathy for people who vote against their own interest . And don’t want tax payers money propping them up.DecrepitJohnL said:
Blame the voters, not the media or politicians who misled them?nico67 said:
Exactly . Same as the farmers , time to own the consequences of their votes .Gardenwalker said:
The fisherfolk all voted for self immolation.Scott_P said:
Why should my tax money bail out those fuckers?
Time to accept the consequences of their vote . If they go to the wall , tough !0 -
Reminds me of the BNP et al turning their backs to Sadiq Khan in 2016.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Voter, quite childish to turn their backs.
Such is politics.
Started a meme that they were facing Mecca to pray.0 -
Good one. I think GO is a paragon of capability and principle compared to the Charlatan-in-Chief. What I find should find staggering is that Brexit supporters are gullible enough to think Bozo really believes in it, but then I think about it and I remember that to be a Brexit supporter you have to believe in Brexit being a sensible thing to do, and there lies the answer.Alanbrooke said:
the Tories got rid of Osborne, who are you referring to ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not sure. The membership are not interested in capability. They are obsessed by what they believe to be purity with respect to one subject. It is why they will put a muppet in charge who is the antithesis to what a true leader is; a man without principles who will say anything to advance the needs of his insatiable ego.Alanbrooke said:
Hague stood for the leadership before he was readyNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
He would have walked it now0 -
Mr. 67, and what of those fishermen who voted Remain? Or the fact not one of them got to negotiate the deal or to vote for or against it?
Surely you want the best result for the national interest to come about, rather than wishing harm on one's countrymen because they happened to vote a different way at the ballot box?
Difference of opinion is the beating heart of democracy, and it's disturbing that small but increasing numbers of people are viewing those who vote differently as 'the enemy'.
In happier news, I darned a sock yesterday. It looked alright, and if it survives the wash then I shall be very pleased.1 -
Interesting...Pulpstar said:Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.
0 -
You only think that because you agree over BrexitNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now.Scott_P said:
I bet in 2001 you thought he was a moron and voted for Blair!
0 -
I mused on this a couple of days backTheWhiteRabbit said:
I'm not tempted to make a move now.Pulpstar said:Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.
Labour could be facing a GE in the autumn; or in 2022;
It could embrace Remain against No Deal, or the whole thing could be done and dusted by Xmas
Too many variables I think.Pulpstar said:On another potential contest, I don't see any reason particularly Emily Thornberry should be 7-1 for the Labour leadership
She is even airbrushed out of https://labour.org.uk/people/shadow-cabinet/ top picture at the moment !
Corbyn's chosen one looks to be Long Bailey, and a remainer challenge could just as equally emerge from Tom Watson who is currently 20-1 as Thornberry.
Anyhow Thornberry now looks too short to me, Long Bailey should have favoritism I think - Not that I think she's good to back at current odds of around 9-1... very much a laying game still.0 -
I think that is a fair criticism. He is still a colossus compared to Bozo though.anothernick said:
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. Hague fed the Eurosceptic beast with his "save the pound" campaign and created the conditions which led to the election of IDS as Tory leader. He also urged Cameron to hold the referendum, according to Tim Shipman's book.Nigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:0 -
Mr. Eagles, I hadn't heard that, but good that their support has since collapsed.
I am concerned, though, that we'll end up with the far right rising (indeed, we already have the far left squatting on the front bench of the Opposition).
How do you rate Hunt's chances?0 -
you repeatedly seem to miss that people are capable of defining what is in their interest differently to you. They live their lives and have different priorities.Nigel_Foremain said:
Good one. I think GO is a paragon of capability and principle compared to the Charlatan-in-Chief. What I find should find staggering is that Brexit supporters are gullible enough to think Bozo really believes in it, but then I think about it and I remember that to be a Brexit supporter you have to believe in Brexit being a sensible thing to do, and there lies the answer.Alanbrooke said:
the Tories got rid of Osborne, who are you referring to ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not sure. The membership are not interested in capability. They are obsessed by what they believe to be purity with respect to one subject. It is why they will put a muppet in charge who is the antithesis to what a true leader is; a man without principles who will say anything to advance the needs of his insatiable ego.Alanbrooke said:
Hague stood for the leadership before he was readyNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
He would have walked it now0 -
if we had gone in to the Euro at that time subsequent events have shown we would have been irredeemably screwed.anothernick said:
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. Hague fed the Eurosceptic beast with his "save the pound" campaign and created the conditions which led to the election of IDS as Tory leader. He also urged Cameron to hold the referendum, according to Tim Shipman's book.Nigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:0 -
My apologies it was Britain First.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I hadn't heard that, but good that their support has since collapsed.
I am concerned, though, that we'll end up with the far right rising (indeed, we already have the far left squatting on the front bench of the Opposition).
How do you rate Hunt's chances?
They sound like a Batten’s UKIP
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/britain-first-candidate-turns-back-79151200 -
One of my happier candidates. I got on her on Betfair at 350.Pulpstar said:Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.
0 -
This is all old history now, but it's worth remembering that in 2016 it was widely believed that the domestic fishing industry had been damaged by the EU membership, in fact I can't remember Remain campaigning at all on the basis that Remain was great for fishing; and also that it was, and is, perfectly reasonable for us simple folk to expect that when the government gives you two choices that they are properly prepared for each of them.Scott_P said:0 -
Well I agree with you re GO, though his economic policy was one of many factors which led to Brexit. He had the good sense to oppose the referendum though. But I see no way back for him in today's Tory Party.Nigel_Foremain said:
Good one. I think GO is a paragon of capability and principle compared to the Charlatan-in-Chief. What I find should find staggering is that Brexit supporters are gullible enough to think Bozo really believes in it, but then I think about it and I remember that to be a Brexit supporter you have to believe in Brexit being a sensible thing to do, and there lies the answer.Alanbrooke said:
the Tories got rid of Osborne, who are you referring to ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not sure. The membership are not interested in capability. They are obsessed by what they believe to be purity with respect to one subject. It is why they will put a muppet in charge who is the antithesis to what a true leader is; a man without principles who will say anything to advance the needs of his insatiable ego.Alanbrooke said:
Hague stood for the leadership before he was readyNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
He would have walked it now0 -
Because he is the messiah.....rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1145774857377984518
Why? Why do his supporters not see this? Labour under an effective, combative leader like Brown or Smith would be taking this shower apart at the dispatch box every day.0 -
There are a whole stack of people who simply believe what they chose to believe and if the facts disagree then down with facts. They insist that Brexit will be positive. When it negatively impact them their anger will be a sight to behold...Alanbrooke said:
you repeatedly seem to miss that people are capable of defining what is in their interest differently to you. They live their lives and have different priorities.Nigel_Foremain said:
Good one. I think GO is a paragon of capability and principle compared to the Charlatan-in-Chief. What I find should find staggering is that Brexit supporters are gullible enough to think Bozo really believes in it, but then I think about it and I remember that to be a Brexit supporter you have to believe in Brexit being a sensible thing to do, and there lies the answer.Alanbrooke said:
the Tories got rid of Osborne, who are you referring to ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not sure. The membership are not interested in capability. They are obsessed by what they believe to be purity with respect to one subject. It is why they will put a muppet in charge who is the antithesis to what a true leader is; a man without principles who will say anything to advance the needs of his insatiable ego.Alanbrooke said:
Hague stood for the leadership before he was readyNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
He would have walked it now0 -
That's a counter factual too far, Alan. We have no idea what would have happened if we'd gone in to the Euro.Alanbrooke said:
if we had gone in to the Euro at that time subsequent events have shown we would have been irredeemably screwed.anothernick said:
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. Hague fed the Eurosceptic beast with his "save the pound" campaign and created the conditions which led to the election of IDS as Tory leader. He also urged Cameron to hold the referendum, according to Tim Shipman's book.Nigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:0 -
Very much suck it and see, at the moment.Alistair said:
There's a hole in your statement there.MikeSmithson said:
In a head to head this polo had Harris ahead of BidenPulpstar said:There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/biden_still_leads_among_democrats_but_support_is_down0 -
Nope, I think you are possibly a moron because your political instinct/frame of reference can't recognise a Tory, just because I don't agree with the un-Conservative policy of Brexit. I have been a member for over 20 years, and an activist (though not now).GIN1138 said:
You only think that because you agree over BrexitNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now.Scott_P said:
I bet in 2001 you thought he was a moron and voted for Blair!
I loathed Blair, his petty cool Britannia, his irritating style of speech, his persecution of people in the countryside, his use of the military to suck up to George W Bush and his general hypocrisy. In spite of all of this comparative awfulness he will be seen as a brilliant PM compared to Bozo. As a genuine Conservative (rather than the Johnny come lately variety) I find that regrettable.1 -
AlastairMeeks said:
One of my happier candidates. I got on her on Betfair at 350.Pulpstar said:Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.
I'm hopeful of the Dawn Butler train pulling into 20ish for a tale like that yet. 0 -
RochdalePioneers said:
There are a whole stack of people who simply believe what they chose to believe and if the facts disagree then down with facts. They insist that Brexit will be positive. When it negatively impact them their anger will be a sight to behold...Alanbrooke said:
you repeatedly seem to miss that people are capable of defining what is in their interest differently to you. They live their lives and have different priorities.Nigel_Foremain said:
Good one. I think GO is a paragon of capability and principle compared to the Charlatan-in-Chief. What I find should find staggering is that Brexit supporters are gullible enough to think Bozo really believes in it, but then I think about it and I remember that to be a Brexit supporter you have to believe in Brexit being a sensible thing to do, and there lies the answer.Alanbrooke said:
the Tories got rid of Osborne, who are you referring to ?Nigel_Foremain said:
I am not sure. The membership are not interested in capability. They are obsessed by what they believe to be purity with respect to one subject. It is why they will put a muppet in charge who is the antithesis to what a true leader is; a man without principles who will say anything to advance the needs of his insatiable ego.Alanbrooke said:
Hague stood for the leadership before he was readyNigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
He would have walked it now
I coiuld happily argue thats the basis of voting Labour, tribal voting hasnt made Labour voters better off0 -
I'd forgotten about theseNigelb said:
Very much suck it and see, at the moment.Alistair said:
There's a hole in your statement there.MikeSmithson said:
In a head to head this polo had Harris ahead of BidenPulpstar said:There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/biden_still_leads_among_democrats_but_support_is_down
https://marketingweek.com/1996/02/16/nestle-adds-holes-to-the-polo-range-2/0 -
So the DUP support no deal .
They really are a disgrace .0 -
No real reason for Buttigieg (for instance) to drop out if he can continue raising campaign cash.Pulpstar said:
I think ultimately it could be a 4 way contest with Warren, Harris, Biden and Sanders.MikeSmithson said:
In a head to head this poll had Harris ahead of BidenPulpstar said:There's a Quinnipiac poll out today, could shed more light - or more heat...
In addition to the RCP polls there was a Rasmussen poll out showing Biden in the low 30s with the rest of the big 4 on 13. It wasn't quite a VI poll though so maybe that's why it isn't in the RCP average.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/biden_still_leads_among_democrats_but_support_is_down
The poll entrails seem to be paywalled.
If we do get a contested convention, he'd want his handful of delegates.0 -
we have no certainty what would have happened but looking at free wheeling anglo saxon economy Ireland I think we have a good ideaTOPPING said:
That's a counter factual too far, Alan. We have no idea what would have happened if we'd gone in to the Euro.Alanbrooke said:
if we had gone in to the Euro at that time subsequent events have shown we would have been irredeemably screwed.anothernick said:
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. Hague fed the Eurosceptic beast with his "save the pound" campaign and created the conditions which led to the election of IDS as Tory leader. He also urged Cameron to hold the referendum, according to Tim Shipman's book.Nigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:
odds are we would have bust ithe Euro or ourselves.0 -
RLB is a continuity Corbynite and hence a palatable choice to the current regime. It has to be a woman and Labour would be best served by Jess Rodham Philips but she has no chance.nico67 said:
I’d rather have Corbyn . Are the Labour Party mad . Long Bailey is hopeless .Pulpstar said:Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.
1 -
Look at Ireland and multiple it by 20.... Our housing market would have gone the same way as theirs did and would have blown up our banks far more than even 2008 did...TOPPING said:
That's a counter factual too far, Alan. We have no idea what would have happened if we'd gone in to the Euro.Alanbrooke said:
if we had gone in to the Euro at that time subsequent events have shown we would have been irredeemably screwed.anothernick said:
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. Hague fed the Eurosceptic beast with his "save the pound" campaign and created the conditions which led to the election of IDS as Tory leader. He also urged Cameron to hold the referendum, according to Tim Shipman's book.Nigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:0 -
I've just asked Betfair to add her to the Next PM market. I now have £37 @ 1000 on her.Pulpstar said:AlastairMeeks said:
One of my happier candidates. I got on her on Betfair at 350.Pulpstar said:Long Bailey now favourite for Labour leader.
I'm hopeful of the Dawn Butler train pulling into 20ish for a tale like that yet.0 -
I wasn't in favour of it at the time, but I suspect we would have found it very helpful for our economy, but as you say, we have no idea, except that it would have made Brexit even more damaging than it already will beTOPPING said:
That's a counter factual too far, Alan. We have no idea what would have happened if we'd gone in to the Euro.Alanbrooke said:
if we had gone in to the Euro at that time subsequent events have shown we would have been irredeemably screwed.anothernick said:
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. Hague fed the Eurosceptic beast with his "save the pound" campaign and created the conditions which led to the election of IDS as Tory leader. He also urged Cameron to hold the referendum, according to Tim Shipman's book.Nigel_Foremain said:
William Hague. One of the most underrated men in British politics. He now looks a complete colossus compared to the idiots on offer now. There was a time when the Tory faithful would have taken heed of his warnings, but now, who knows? The entryists will no doubt claim he is not a proper Tory.Scott_P said:0 -
Bear in mind they have a population just a bit bigger than Birmingham.Cicero said:
This may help:TheWhiteRabbit said:
I'm not sure I understand the Estonian set up.Benpointer said:
Yes that's correct.Nigelb said:
Does the GDPR not give you that right, irrespective of whether it is for "necessary business purposes" ?eek said:
Nope - it's data for necessary business purposes so GDPR wouldn't apply.Nigelb said:
Does not the GDPR apply ?ydoethur said:
Can't claim credit. It's the Estonian system.Gallowgate said:
Agreed. That sounds very sensible.ydoethur said:
I would only be willing to accept them, even under those circumstances, if I had complete access to the database behind it including a mechanism for seeing who was looking at my data.Gallowgate said:I have no problem with being required to hold government ID as long as you are not required to carry it on your person at all times.
And I think it's perfectly acceptable that I can check exactly who looked at my data - for fraud prevention if nothing else...
Whilst on the subject of GDPR... how did all the doom-mongers' predictions about how GDPR was going to wipe out legitimate businesses work out?
There's a database, presumably I consent to people checking it when I do things. What things? Is it available to my Landlord? My airline? Or is it just police?
https://www.aki.ee/en/inspectorate
Please note though that there is not one database, the system functions like a LAN with common secure access protocols, it is impossible to access any of the data without leaving a trace- its blockchain enabled. An individual owns their data and can challenge any access that is deemed to be illegitimate. There is a physical card, because it is a token plus two PIN access, but many now store their token on their mobile phones so the X-Road can be accessed without a physical ID.0
This discussion has been closed.