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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harris and Warrnen now dominate the WH2020 Democratic betting following their performances in the first TV debates
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OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.0
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Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.0 -
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The headline numbers aren't the interesting ones, as they can wax and wane. The key is the probable permanent shift of some of those that wanted both unions for largely the same reason. Forced to make a choice, increasing numbers are choosing the European Union over the United Kingdom.HYUFD said:
Yet even as Curtice points out 64% of Scottish Leave voters would still vote No to independence in the latest polls and only 51% of Remain voting Scots would vote Yes even despite BrexitFF43 said:Proof that Brexit is pushing Scotland to independence
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/11455912210139299840 -
I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....HYUFD said:1 -
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Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?1
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She looks OKRoger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
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Indeed and both Biden and Sanders are still in front.NickPalmer said:Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.
Also the evidence is Biden and Sanders both beat Trump by a significantly bigger margin than Warren or Harris do, indeed the latest poll from Emerson has both Biden and Sanders leading Trump by 10%, Warren leading Trump by 6% and Harris leading Trump by just 4%
http://emersonpolling.com/2019/06/24/june-national-poll-all-eyes-on-the-democratic-debates-biden-sanders-and-warren-separate-from-the-field/0 -
Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.DougSeal said:Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?
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Yes!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.DougSeal said:Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?
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The only way the Tory Party is dead is if the Brexit Party replaces it as the main party of the right, however if Brexit is delivered and Labour refuse to back EUref2 there is more chance of the LDs replacing Laboureek said:
I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....HYUFD said:0 -
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.0 -
A few Scottish Remainers maybe but not a clear majority and Scottish Leavers remain strongly anti independenceFF43 said:
The headline numbers aren't the interesting ones, as they can wax and wane. The key is the probable permanent shift of some of those that wanted both unions for largely the same reason. Forced to make a choice, increasing numbers are choosing the European Union over the United Kingdom.HYUFD said:
Yet even as Curtice points out 64% of Scottish Leave voters would still vote No to independence in the latest polls and only 51% of Remain voting Scots would vote Yes even despite BrexitFF43 said:Proof that Brexit is pushing Scotland to independence
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/11455912210139299840 -
As a presumed diehard Remainer, I am really just waiting for a good reason to support Leave.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.DougSeal said:Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?
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Diehard Remainers are those who expect Brexit to outlast Christmas.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.DougSeal said:Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?
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Biden is only in this race because people think he will win against Trump. He has no other discernible characteristics. He's also extremely dependent on black Democratic voters: a group that might - ummm... - start questioning whether he's all he's cracked up to be.NickPalmer said:Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.
When I look at this campaign, Sanders, Harris, Warren and Buttigieg - they all seem to be enjoying the campaign. O'Rourke? Not so much. Biden? Definitely not.
If aura of invincibility starts to fade from Uncle Joe, then he's nothing. An elderly gaff prone cypher, with no ground game and no presence.
I don't think he'll make it to Iowa.0 -
Went for Davey after this mornings debate, whilst I liked Swinson I thought she was at times to shrill and would turn people off. Davey does need to look at his waistline image though either by clothes that cover it up a bit or lose weight.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.0 -
Duty Free back on cross channel ferries?FF43 said:
As a presumed diehard Remainer, I am really just waiting for a good reason to support Leave.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.DougSeal said:Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?
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I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.0 -
Incidentally, anecdata - I've had non-partisan work in Parliament twice in the last week, and chatted to people of various persuasions, including a senior Brexiteer, a May adviser, a Shadow Cabinet member and a ChangeUK guy - all of them people I personally respect as wanting to do their best for the country. They all described the Commons atmosphere at the moment as dreadful: "appalling" "horrible" "nighmarish".
"But surely it must be extremely interesting?" I said to two of them. They looked at me uncomprehendingly. "No, it's simply grim."0 -
I voted this morning. Davey for me, but happy with Swinson if she wins.MikeSmithson said:
I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.0 -
So glad you're here to unpick the complex subliminals we would otherwise miss.Roger said:I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
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Yeah, but your difficulty is too many good candidates whereas.......stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.0 -
"Ho ho ho! Now I have a Withdrawal Agreement!"Foxy said:
Diehard Remainers are those who expect Brexit to outlast Christmas.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.DougSeal said:Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?
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"The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition."MikeSmithson said:
I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
- Boris, 2003.0 -
Mordaunt hates Johnson. Woman of great discernment.HYUFD said:0 -
But they are not necessarily more right than you. Grimness or otherwise is a question on of persepective.NickPalmer said:Incidentally, anecdata - I've had non-partisan work in Parliament twice in the last week, and chatted to people of various persuasions, including a senior Brexiteer, a May adviser, a Shadow Cabinet member and a ChangeUK guy - all of them people I personally respect as wanting to do their best for the country. They all described the Commons atmosphere at the moment as dreadful: "appalling" "horrible" "nighmarish".
"But surely it must be extremely interesting?" I said to two of them. They looked at me uncomprehendingly. "No, it's simply grim."0 -
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:0 -
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:0 -
Totally O/T but a bit of excellent customer service. Confusing message re Granddaughters desires re presents on becoming a teenager from her mother so Grannie and Grandpa bought a voucher from an online store called Pink-Boutique. As fellow PB's will understand we are light years away from understanding teenage fashion or from where it ought to be purchased. Anyway it was a different Pink at which she wanted to shop. So I rang the P-B this morning and a charming young lady assured me no problem, we'll refund your money, and while it hasn't yet appeared on my credit card I have an email telling me that it will.
Must be something about the juxtaposition of the letters P & B.
And when I checked on something in my memory the founder of the Boutique had received a prize for business development. from my wife and I's alma mater.2 -
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
Except that Warren (like Harris) had a significant bump in her electability measure. And Biden a significant decline.NickPalmer said:Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.
If the electability argument goes, so does Biden’s candidature.
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Warren vs Kamala in debate will be very interesting. Looking forward to that. If the Dem race boils down to these two I will be happy and relaxed. Trump is toast against either but IMO marginally more crisp and burnt if the junior senator from California gets the nod. The fact that she is my main bet has absolutely nothing to do with this assessment. It is 100% objective based on the evidence of my eyes and ears.0
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I’m not sure you realize how true that statement is. The first time I stood as a liberal candidate in 1983 at the count the Tory leader told me that if I ever wanted to be a councilor I would have to join the conservatives, I told him that I disagreed with their politics and I could never join. He said ‘oh we’re not political you just have to vote as the leader tells you’. In 1997:two years after winning control of the council,I was voted n the pub and asked the same person why they were trying to block everything we were trying to do he replied ‘the programmer is brilliant but if we let you implement it we’ll never retake the council’ in the end they wore us down and went on to implement 90% of our plans. In hindsight I supposed we actually won because power was never our objective n itself.kjohnw said:0 -
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.1 -
What an utter delusional as well as meaningless statement.Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
So you were the guy who voted for Alan Beith!MikeSmithson said:
I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.1 -
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
No much better to buy duty paid than dirty free in a country where fags booze and perfume are cheaper by farFoxy said:
Duty Free back on cross channel ferries?FF43 said:
As a presumed diehard Remainer, I am really just waiting for a good reason to support Leave.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Diehard Remainers: (n.) Those people who want the Nakatomi Tower to remain in the EU.DougSeal said:Is there a Betfair market on how many times HYUFD will use the term “diehard remainers” tonight?
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Serbia and Montenegro are next up to join, "by 2025".Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
Boris Johnson -the man who is wrong about everything....Sunil_Prasannan said:
"The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition." - Boris, 2003.MikeSmithson said:
I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.0 -
The question for those wishing to rejoin the EU will be on what terms will our application to rejoin be considered. Even if we are forced to eat rats and scavenge for root vegetables (which we won't), there will be many who would rather eat dirt than use the Euro or join up to Schengen.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
OTOH, the EU could use our money but we may not wish to return simply as a contributor. A thoughtful EU might wish to come up with a set of terms - not so wish a WA as a JA - which would enable us to re-integrate economically but keep a degree of political distance. It would be a model for a multi-track EU and I fear it's beyond the EU's imagination.
So much will depend on the "experience" of being outside the EU. After the novelty wears off, will it be the catalyst to creating a modern 21st century nation state or are we so limited as to see ourselves either as Caracas-on-Thames or Singapore-on-Thames?0 -
Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
The Brexit Party has ensured this is now a culture war. The EU is the progressive future and 'Brexit' is the regressive past. That is not going away quickly. Scottish Independence soon follows.stodge said:
The question for those wishing to rejoin the EU will be on what terms will our application to rejoin be considered. Even if we are forced to eat rats and scavenge for root vegetables (which we won't), there will be many who would rather eat dirt than use the Euro or join up to Schengen.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
OTOH, the EU could use our money but we may not wish to return simply as a contributor. A thoughtful EU might wish to come up with a set of terms - not so wish a WA as a JA - which would enable us to re-integrate economically but keep a degree of political distance. It would be a model for a multi-track EU and I fear it's beyond the EU's imagination.
So much will depend on the "experience" of being outside the EU. After the novelty wears off, will it be the catalyst to creating a modern 21st century nation state or are we so limited as to see ourselves either as Caracas-on-Thames or Singapore-on-Thames?0 -
Scotland.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.Mexicanpete said:
Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?Luckyguy1983 said:
I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.Mexicanpete said:
Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?0
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Indeed and my view has always been that while I would prefer a Liberal Democrat Government to enact the policies I believe would be rest for the country and for all its people, I could hardly complain if a Conservative or Labour Government implemented those self-same policies.nichomar said:I’m not sure you realize how true that statement is. The first time I stood as a liberal candidate in 1983 at the count the Tory leader told me that if I ever wanted to be a councilor I would have to join the conservatives, I told him that I disagreed with their politics and I could never join. He said ‘oh we’re not political you just have to vote as the leader tells you’. In 1997:two years after winning control of the council,I was voted n the pub and asked the same person why they were trying to block everything we were trying to do he replied ‘the programmer is brilliant but if we let you implement it we’ll never retake the council’ in the end they wore us down and went on to implement 90% of our plans. In hindsight I supposed we actually won because power was never our objective n itself.
There are of course those for whom office or power is all that matters and their sole purpose is to maintain themselves in authority.0 -
Details here:Nigelb said:
Except that Warren (like Harris) had a significant bump in her electability measure. And Biden a significant decline.NickPalmer said:Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.
If the electability argument goes, so does Biden’s candidature.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/elizabeth-warren-kamala-harris-electability-poll_n_5d18ca8ae4b03d61163d2743
Of course there will be a backlash/reaction, so Harris’s odds in particular are a bit short right now.
0 -
I am not sure you can tar Corbyn's Labour with that brush, they seem to be doing everything in their power to avoid office. Likewise the Dems.stodge said:
Indeed and my view has always been that while I would prefer a Liberal Democrat Government to enact the policies I believe would be rest for the country and for all its people, I could hardly complain if a Conservative or Labour Government implemented those self-same policies.nichomar said:I’m not sure you realize how true that statement is. The first time I stood as a liberal candidate in 1983 at the count the Tory leader told me that if I ever wanted to be a councilor I would have to join the conservatives, I told him that I disagreed with their politics and I could never join. He said ‘oh we’re not political you just have to vote as the leader tells you’. In 1997:two years after winning control of the council,I was voted n the pub and asked the same person why they were trying to block everything we were trying to do he replied ‘the programmer is brilliant but if we let you implement it we’ll never retake the council’ in the end they wore us down and went on to implement 90% of our plans. In hindsight I supposed we actually won because power was never our objective n itself.
There are of course those for whom office or power is all that matters and their sole purpose is to maintain themselves in authority.0 -
I can't decide. I'm happy with either.MikeSmithson said:
I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
Davey is articulate, experienced, heavy weight. Swinson is energetic and enthusiastic but she's not a Nicola or a Ruth. Davey for the head. Swinson for the heart.
Who will appeal to more people? I suspect it's the heart. Who will do best against Johnson and Corbyn? I suspect it is the articulate experienced heavyweight. Can't decide.0 -
An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.williamglenn said:
Scotland.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
Evidence please? Or are you just displaying Anglo arrogance?Luckyguy1983 said:
An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.williamglenn said:
Scotland.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
So you have nothing.Mexicanpete said:
Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?Luckyguy1983 said:
I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.Mexicanpete said:
Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
0
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NoCasino_Royale said:Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?
0 -
It's Sherrod Brown I feel most sorry for. All setup to be Generic White Male Dem from the Midwest Who Would Totally Beat Trump and then Biden decides to run and suck alllllll that oxygen out of the room.rcs1000 said:
Biden is only in this race because people think he will win against Trump. He has no other discernible characteristics. He's also extremely dependent on black Democratic voters: a group that might - ummm... - start questioning whether he's all he's cracked up to be.NickPalmer said:Latest polls here - seem to suggest that Harris has had a bump but Warren hasn't, and both still well behind Biden and possibly Sanders:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.
When I look at this campaign, Sanders, Harris, Warren and Buttigieg - they all seem to be enjoying the campaign. O'Rourke? Not so much. Biden? Definitely not.
If aura of invincibility starts to fade from Uncle Joe, then he's nothing. An elderly gaff prone cypher, with no ground game and no presence.
I don't think he'll make it to Iowa.
Also I had had a speculative punt on him and had been ramping him since 2016.0 -
That's an interesting question: which was the last country to join the EU whose GDP per capitaLuckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
was higher than the average?
I'm guessing either Austria or Finland.2 -
Are you sure NI is richer than the south?Mexicanpete said:
Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?Luckyguy1983 said:
I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.Mexicanpete said:
Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
There will always be room for something on the centre right of wherever the Overton window is at the time, so there will always be room for what is now the Conservative party, even if it's eventually called something else.Cyclefree said:
At the moment there is no home for the centrist right pragmatist, and no-one is at work at Butskellism either on the left or the right, but they will be one day, it's the law of civilized society. The Conservatives have made the great mistake of believing and doing something specific and ideological: the set of beliefs and actions which got us into the Common Market in the first place (in the teeth of Labour opposition), and the set of beliefs which is now taking us out of the EU again (in the teeth of Labour opposition). As for the party, it works best when it is dedicated to the honourable task of winning elections and not getting things into a mess in the first place.
Sane Conservative (and Labour) governments from 1972 onwards, in the light of the EU's democratic deficiencies would have ruthlessly used the referendum as a device for both ensuring that we got out of europe what we wanted and at then same time secured cast iron democratic legitimacy what whatever outcome there was. In the long eye of history, this will be found to be the fatal error. It may not be repairable.
At the moment there is no room for the centrist because of the vital issue of the day to stay where we are is deeply undemocratic, and to exit is, obviously, risky and dangerous.
Open season for ideologues and fanatics.0 -
Name a rich European country that isn’t in the single market.Luckyguy1983 said:
So you have nothing.Mexicanpete said:
Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?Luckyguy1983 said:
I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.Mexicanpete said:
Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
No.Casino_Royale said:Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?
That said the market is so hard to predict because the polls that matter are early primary state polling but the polls that get publically done are national polls.0 -
So you still haven't identified that country, because there isn't one. Germany excepted the UK was the only country daft enough to be in the EU as a financial contributor.Gallowgate said:
Evidence please? Or are you just displaying Anglo arrogance?Luckyguy1983 said:
An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.williamglenn said:
Scotland.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
Depends which side of the divide- which I guess undermines my statement.Charles said:
Are you sure NI is richer than the south?Mexicanpete said:
Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?Luckyguy1983 said:
I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.Mexicanpete said:
Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
So true about labour nationally you only have to listen to the true believers that purity is more important than actually achieving anything. Never experienced labour in local government but have the impression that machine politics is the norm so probably true. It’s the failure of the electoral system that even in lib dem majority councils people will join them because they want to ‘serve’ it’s a laudable objective but you should be able to have some chance of getting elected without hiding you’re politics. Multi member stv would go some way to eliminate this.Mexicanpete said:
I am not sure you can tar Corbyn's Labour with that brush, they seem to be doing everything in their power to avoid office. Likewise the Dems.stodge said:
Indeed and my view has always been that while I would prefer a Liberal Democrat Government to enact the policies I believe would be rest for the country and for all its people, I could hardly complain if a Conservative or Labour Government implemented those self-same policies.nichomar said:I’m not sure you realize how true that statement is. The first time I stood as a liberal candidate in 1983 at the count the Tory leader told me that if I ever wanted to be a councilor I would have to join the conservatives, I told him that I disagreed with their politics and I could never join. He said ‘oh we’re not political you just have to vote as the leader tells you’. In 1997:two years after winning control of the council,I was voted n the pub and asked the same person why they were trying to block everything we were trying to do he replied ‘the programmer is brilliant but if we let you implement it we’ll never retake the council’ in the end they wore us down and went on to implement 90% of our plans. In hindsight I supposed we actually won because power was never our objective n itself.
There are of course those for whom office or power is all that matters and their sole purpose is to maintain themselves in authority.0 -
I tipped Kamala Harris here in January 2017 when she was 66/1
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/18/my-661-long-shot-bet-for-the-2020-white-house-race-demcratic-senator-kamala-harris-from-california/0 -
So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?0 -
No.Casino_Royale said:Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?
0 -
How many children does she have?Casino_Royale said:Is Kamala Harris the new Andrea Leadsom?
0 -
But which of the losing candidates did OGH Snr support in the 1967 Liberal leadership election - Eric Lubbock or Emlyn Hooson?rcs1000 said:
So you were the guy who voted for Alan Beith!MikeSmithson said:
I have now voted. Given that I have supported losers in every single leadership election in the party's history I won't reveal my choice for thr moment.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.0 -
I suspect that the North WAS richer once upon a time, but I doubt it is now.Mexicanpete said:
Depends which side of the divide- which I guess undermines my statement.Charles said:
Are you sure NI is richer than the south?Mexicanpete said:
Northern Ireland, as part of a United Ireland?Luckyguy1983 said:
I know. And I thought it would be quicker for you to name the country that wanted to join that is richer than the EU rather than wishing to be a beneficiary.Mexicanpete said:
Sorry. I was enquiring as to the name of the lofty journal that lead you to that conclusion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
What would drive that? I'm struggling to see the rationale (not that rationale is necessarily relevant when Trump's involved, I guess).TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?0 -
Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?0 -
What are they smoking over there at the Emirates?
£40 million for Zaha?
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/jul/01/arsenal-40m-approach-crystal-palace-wilfried-zaha0 -
Other net contributors are France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Ireland, but when you consider how much bang for their buck they get compared with duplicating the EU's functions at the national level, it's a good deal.Luckyguy1983 said:
So you still haven't identified that country, because there isn't one. Germany excepted the UK was the only country daft enough to be in the EU as a financial contributor.Gallowgate said:
Evidence please? Or are you just displaying Anglo arrogance?Luckyguy1983 said:
An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.williamglenn said:
Scotland.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
1
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France is a bigger net contributor than the UK and Italy is not far behind.Luckyguy1983 said:
So you still haven't identified that country, because there isn't one. Germany excepted the UK was the only country daft enough to be in the EU as a financial contributor.Gallowgate said:
Evidence please? Or are you just displaying Anglo arrogance?Luckyguy1983 said:
An independent Scotland would require significant financial support. Whether it would get it is another question entirely.williamglenn said:
Scotland.Luckyguy1983 said:
Country?Mexicanpete said:
Source?Luckyguy1983 said:
No country wants to join the EU unless they need the money.Gallowgate said:
There will be those of the view that no matter the end result, the Brexit will never be hard enough. There will be those who want to rejoin the EU. There will be those who want to rejoin EEA/The Single Market.Luckyguy1983 said:
Of course it won't. Our relationship with the continent will continue to be a big issue - as it has always been.Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with you people? Brexit does not 'end' once(if) we leave. This will dominate British politics for the next 20 years.kjohnw said:
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.0 -
Not sure, I was looking at Robert's earlier thread and trying to assess the odds on the GOP winning in 2020 without Trump and it got me thinking.Benpointer said:
What would drive that? I'm struggling to see the rationale (not that rationale is necessarily relevant when Trump's involved, I guess).TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?
Perhaps the tipping point might be if Mueller's evidence to Congress is awful for Trump.
Just imagine if Mueller absolutely tears Trump a new one.0 -
Perhaps I'm over estimating the power of Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress.Alistair said:
Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?0 -
Let's send some gunboats immediately!Viceroy_of_Orange said:Powerful image.
https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/11457127246237450250 -
Yes a reminder of the UK's shameful role in the global drugs war.Viceroy_of_Orange said:Powerful image.
https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1145712724623745025
#SayNoToDrugs0 -
If it is Warren v Harris Trump will be laughing all the way to re election, he probably wins the popular vote against either as well as likely increasing his Electoral College margin.kinabalu said:Warren vs Kamala in debate will be very interesting. Looking forward to that. If the Dem race boils down to these two I will be happy and relaxed. Trump is toast against either but IMO marginally more crisp and burnt if the junior senator from California gets the nod. The fact that she is my main bet has absolutely nothing to do with this assessment. It is 100% objective based on the evidence of my eyes and ears.
If the Democrats really think two left liberal coastal elitists stand a better chance of beating Trump in the Electoral College than a charismatic centrist from rustbelt Pennsylvania like Joe Biden then they deserve to lose in 20200 -
Remember this acronym: IOIYARTheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps I'm over estimating the power of Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress.Alistair said:
Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?
"Its Okay If You Are a Republican"
The only thing they care about is packing the Federal courts with activists judges. Turning against Trump would blow up that strategy.0 -
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I picked up a freesheet this morning which seemed determined to tell their readers that Boris had assaulted his first wife and her best friend. The paper seemed to be holding back details though their informant-the friend who had been assaulted-clearly wanted to get the information out. Could be tittle tattle or could be the sword of Damacles. These days that sort of thing can spell instant death to a candidate so don't spend your winnings yet.kinabalu said:
Mordaunt hates Johnson. Woman of great discernment.HYUFD said:0 -
Just corrected that for you.kjohnw said:
The Tory party is not dead , it will adapt and survive as it always has , its sole purpose is winning elections and the pursuit of power . It will all change once brexit is delivered cancelled.eek said:
I think the Tory party is dead - the only question is when it's death becomes obvious....HYUFD said:
You're welcome.
0 -
Me neither, but it's a great difficult decision to have.stodge said:
When I saw them last Monday, I also thought they were both very good. Davey is the more "activist" of the two with a proven track record in SW London and he's more in the Ashdown/Farron mode - plenty of energy and speaks to the activists but that is limiting.Roger said:OT Just seen the CH4 debate between Swinson and Davey. First time I've really seen Swinson. Liked them both. Great contrast to the trully horrible Tory obsessives. For Me Swinson just edged it. Slightly more presence and a Scottish accent is a big positive. I also liked the subtle choice of wearing yellow.
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.0 -
The problem with the EU going away as an issue is the same three year old Brexit contradiction.
There is no tolerable Brexit outcome for the UK as long as everyone else stays in the EU, except a close relationship, which will be on the EU's terms. The British won't be happy standing by their metaphorical fax machines waiting for the latest instruction from Brussels. The UK isn't Norway, that is willing to outsource a large part of its foreign and economic policy to third parties.
On the other hand, the option that is demonstrably better for UK interests is the one that has been rejected in a democratic vote.
Other options are difficult, time consuming, uncertain and will damage vested interests.0 -
Close to zero given he easily wins the GOP primaries again.TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?
Kasich may run on a centrist third party ticket though with Hickenlooper0 -
Rather, underestimating the thrall which has captured the party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps I'm over estimating the power of Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress.Alistair said:
Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?
0 -
Thanks.Alistair said:
Remember this acronym: IOIYARTheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps I'm over estimating the power of Robert Mueller's testimony to Congress.Alistair said:
Nae chance. The GOP have 100% hitched themselves to the Trump train.TheScreamingEagles said:So my strategy of laying the oldies in this market has proven to be wise.
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?
"Its Okay If You Are a Republican"
The only thing they care about is packing the Federal courts with activists judges. Turning against Trump would blow up that strategy.0
