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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harris and Warrnen now dominate the WH2020 Democratic betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harris and Warrnen now dominate the WH2020 Democratic betting following their performances in the first TV debates
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
I think that punters tend to overestimate debates, because they watch them (unlike most people) and they're hungry for hard data.
Also the evidence is Biden and Sanders both beat Trump by a significantly bigger margin than Warren or Harris do, indeed the latest poll from Emerson has both Biden and Sanders leading Trump by 10%, Warren leading Trump by 6% and Harris leading Trump by just 4%
http://emersonpolling.com/2019/06/24/june-national-poll-all-eyes-on-the-democratic-debates-biden-sanders-and-warren-separate-from-the-field/
Jo Swinson seems able to speak to the wider audience and would of course be the contrast to Johnson, Corbyn and even Farage. That's not a reason in and of itself for her to be Party leader of course but the LDs don't have the luxury of picking a leader that suits us but a leader likely to reach out to voters beyond the 20% (or 30%, or 10% or whatever).
I'm not finding this an easy decision at all.
When I look at this campaign, Sanders, Harris, Warren and Buttigieg - they all seem to be enjoying the campaign. O'Rourke? Not so much. Biden? Definitely not.
If aura of invincibility starts to fade from Uncle Joe, then he's nothing. An elderly gaff prone cypher, with no ground game and no presence.
I don't think he'll make it to Iowa.
"But surely it must be extremely interesting?" I said to two of them. They looked at me uncomprehendingly. "No, it's simply grim."
- Boris, 2003.
Must be something about the juxtaposition of the letters P & B.
And when I checked on something in my memory the founder of the Boutique had received a prize for business development. from my wife and I's alma mater.
People are kidding themselves if they think this all goes away.
If the electability argument goes, so does Biden’s candidature.
OTOH, the EU could use our money but we may not wish to return simply as a contributor. A thoughtful EU might wish to come up with a set of terms - not so wish a WA as a JA - which would enable us to re-integrate economically but keep a degree of political distance. It would be a model for a multi-track EU and I fear it's beyond the EU's imagination.
So much will depend on the "experience" of being outside the EU. After the novelty wears off, will it be the catalyst to creating a modern 21st century nation state or are we so limited as to see ourselves either as Caracas-on-Thames or Singapore-on-Thames?
There are of course those for whom office or power is all that matters and their sole purpose is to maintain themselves in authority.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/elizabeth-warren-kamala-harris-electability-poll_n_5d18ca8ae4b03d61163d2743
Of course there will be a backlash/reaction, so Harris’s odds in particular are a bit short right now.
Davey is articulate, experienced, heavy weight. Swinson is energetic and enthusiastic but she's not a Nicola or a Ruth. Davey for the head. Swinson for the heart.
Who will appeal to more people? I suspect it's the heart. Who will do best against Johnson and Corbyn? I suspect it is the articulate experienced heavyweight. Can't decide.
I think she will keep her job at Defence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdwPYuC5Y4k
Also I had had a speculative punt on him and had been ramping him since 2016.
was higher than the average?
I'm guessing either Austria or Finland.
At the moment there is no home for the centrist right pragmatist, and no-one is at work at Butskellism either on the left or the right, but they will be one day, it's the law of civilized society. The Conservatives have made the great mistake of believing and doing something specific and ideological: the set of beliefs and actions which got us into the Common Market in the first place (in the teeth of Labour opposition), and the set of beliefs which is now taking us out of the EU again (in the teeth of Labour opposition). As for the party, it works best when it is dedicated to the honourable task of winning elections and not getting things into a mess in the first place.
Sane Conservative (and Labour) governments from 1972 onwards, in the light of the EU's democratic deficiencies would have ruthlessly used the referendum as a device for both ensuring that we got out of europe what we wanted and at then same time secured cast iron democratic legitimacy what whatever outcome there was. In the long eye of history, this will be found to be the fatal error. It may not be repairable.
At the moment there is no room for the centrist because of the vital issue of the day to stay where we are is deeply undemocratic, and to exit is, obviously, risky and dangerous.
Open season for ideologues and fanatics.
That said the market is so hard to predict because the polls that matter are early primary state polling but the polls that get publically done are national polls.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/18/my-661-long-shot-bet-for-the-2020-white-house-race-demcratic-senator-kamala-harris-from-california/
In the humble opinion of PBers what are the odds of Trump splitting with the GOP and running as an Independent in 2020?
£40 million for Zaha?
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/jul/01/arsenal-40m-approach-crystal-palace-wilfried-zaha
https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1145712724623745025
Perhaps the tipping point might be if Mueller's evidence to Congress is awful for Trump.
Just imagine if Mueller absolutely tears Trump a new one.
#SayNoToDrugs
If the Democrats really think two left liberal coastal elitists stand a better chance of beating Trump in the Electoral College than a charismatic centrist from rustbelt Pennsylvania like Joe Biden then they deserve to lose in 2020
"Its Okay If You Are a Republican"
The only thing they care about is packing the Federal courts with activists judges. Turning against Trump would blow up that strategy.
You're welcome.
There is no tolerable Brexit outcome for the UK as long as everyone else stays in the EU, except a close relationship, which will be on the EU's terms. The British won't be happy standing by their metaphorical fax machines waiting for the latest instruction from Brussels. The UK isn't Norway, that is willing to outsource a large part of its foreign and economic policy to third parties.
On the other hand, the option that is demonstrably better for UK interests is the one that has been rejected in a democratic vote.
Other options are difficult, time consuming, uncertain and will damage vested interests.
Kasich may run on a centrist third party ticket though with Hickenlooper