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Comments
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Brexit and its aftermath will be the single most important factor affecting British politics for years to come.kinabalu said:
Yes exactly. The deed is done. Long years of UK/EU talks lie ahead but they will not be leading the news night after night. We will have 'moved on' in this sense, and it is a real sense of that term. Many analogies spring to mind but for once in my life I will refrain.TOPPING said:The biggest problem in perception of the WA (that it is the final deal, rather than a necessary first step towards a deal) would become its biggest strength - everyone would think we had left and that the WA was the "deal".
No, second thoughts, I won't. The Brexit Bomb will have been diffused.
Far from the EU becoming a side story, as Brexiteers fondly hope, it will be the opposite. The legacy of Brexit and how it is being handled will have a much greater impact than people imagine. All this “moving on” nonsense is delusional.0 -
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"Every shortage" - yes I predict the 2020 Tunbridge Wells 48hr cucumber famine will blight all of our lives for a generation.Scott_P said:
They really will though.kinabalu said:Long years of UK/EU talks lie ahead but they will not be leading the news night after night.
Every job loss, every shortage, every avoidable death, every riot, will lead the news, for months
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And increasingly itching to give the Tories an absolute kicking... I'm finding on the doorsteps that even in the strongest Tory areas (in a Tory held seat) people are incandescent. I don't think even rushing for the door will solve the Tories Brexit problems. They are headed into meltdown territory in Scotland.TGOHF said:0 -
And the "almost" in this case refers not to the teacup, but to probability of a transition from not unique >> uniqueOldKingCole said:0 -
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Unsurprising - been in power for 9 years and foisted a crap PM on us for the last 3.Cicero said:
And increasingly itching to give the Tories an absolute kicking... I'm finding on the doorsteps that even in the strongest Tory areas (in a Tory held seat) people are incandescent. I don't think even rushing for the door will solve the Tories Brexit problems. They are headed into meltdown territory in Scotland.TGOHF said:
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The Tory party is not dying. It is already dead. Johnson and Hunt are fighting over the corpse.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And yes. The Tory party is dying before our eyes. What rough beast is being born to replace it, who can say? At the moment it looks to have adopted Corbyn’s spending plans.SouthamObserver said:The Tories have gone full fruit-loop, batshit crazy, haven’t they? It’s quite extraordinary.
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Thanks for the thoughtful reply.kinabalu said:
I wonder how different in practice the objectives of Labour and Conservative would be as regards this? Perhaps not so much.Nigelb said:I don't disagree entirely - though the arguments about the future relationship would be intense.
EDIT:
From PT - Corbyn - I am not the biggest fan of his (wouldn't mind him being replaced by someone a bit brighter, frankly) but essentially I am happy to vote Labour because I support most of the policies and I share the principles underlying the policies. I think it is time for a serious attempt to tackle inequality (of both opportunity and outcome) in Britain. It will only get worse if we don't. I recognize the risk (to the economy and to the peace of mind of many people, including myself) which comes with a majority Labour government who are ideologically committed to this, but to my mind it is worth it. It passes the risk reward test.
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Brexit already features in just about every corporate bad news announcement. It is a catch-all excuse for everything that goes wrong, and will continue to be so. Car factory closing? Brexit. Steel company goes bankrupt? Brexit. Shortage of workers in catering/farming? Brexit. Pound falling, holidays more expensive? Brexit. Political paralysis? Brexit. Second referendum looms in Scotland? Brexit. No political progress in NI? Brexit. Foreign investment drying up? Brexit.Scott_P said:
They really will though.kinabalu said:Long years of UK/EU talks lie ahead but they will not be leading the news night after night.
Every job loss, every shortage, every avoidable death, every riot, will lead the news, for months
If the Tories think Johnson is going to wave a magic wand and make all this disappear they are even madder than we thought.1 -
None of their fe***ng business. It is for the people of Scotland to decide, not a pair of southern jessies.HYUFD said:0 -
Nobody is listening to Ivan Rogers: if we aim to be like Switzerland (FTA, special partnership, all that stuff lying Dan Hannan waxes about), and actually achieve it, we will spend the rest of our days negotiating with the EU, all day, every day.TOPPING said:
We're not going to move on from Brexit until the last i is dotted and t crossed on the FTA with the EU and that, my friend, is years and years away.
We will not move on from Brexit until we revoke or rejoin.0 -
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Probably a good headline for Hunt. He is showing creativity in his attempt to look tough on Brexit. Still feel though that he needs to go after Boris' character if he really wants to win.Scott_P said:0 -
Goodwin keeps arguing that there is a gap in UK politics for a socially conservative (tough on crime, tough on migrants, flag and family etc etc), but economically lefty (public spending on NHS, pensions, keeping British Steel etc etc).OnlyLivingBoy said:
The Tory party is not dying. It is already dead. Johnson and Hunt are fighting over the corpse.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And yes. The Tory party is dying before our eyes. What rough beast is being born to replace it, who can say? At the moment it looks to have adopted Corbyn’s spending plans.SouthamObserver said:The Tories have gone full fruit-loop, batshit crazy, haven’t they? It’s quite extraordinary.
Not sure whether the Boris tories are trying to get to that populist new point or have simply lost their minds.
Strikes me as odd that in order to win votes from the membership (generally southern-based, retired, well-off, small business, private sector backgrounds etc) they need to splash cash on public sector workers.0 -
The predicated event would result in an 'almost teacup', though!Charles said:
And the "almost" in this case refers not to the teacup, but to probability of a transition from not unique >> uniqueOldKingCole said:0 -
Poujadisme was rather more of a direct action movement (organised tax strikes, for example) - something which sees an echo in French fuel protests and perhaps the gilets jaunes - rather than a precise analogue for Faragism. But Charles is right that there are correspondences.OldKingCole said:
IIRC that's right. Poujade seemed to think CDG was 'his type of President'Charles said:I found this article interesting. On reading it, it seemed to me to be a very good description of Poujadism.
https://unherd.com/2019/07/farage-has-found-boriss-weak-spot/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
From Wiki
Poujadism flourished most vigorously in the last years of the Fourth Republic, and articulated the economic interests and grievances of shopkeepers and other proprietor-managers of small businesses facing economic and social change. The main themes of Poujadism concerned the defense of the common man against the elites.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poujade
May be this is a more apt comparison than with the BNP / Front Nationale, etc?
I don't remember enough of my studies of the Fifth Republic to know why it faded. Perhaps Charles de Gaulle was seen as enough of a strong/populist leader that the need for representation wasn't as strong?
I’m not sure how helpful they are, though.
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We will have to tune into the "Doom and Gloom at 10" every night to see whether it was Brexit or Climate Change to blame for the latest Cassandra warnings of the sky falling in.anothernick said:
Brexit already features in just about every corporate bad news announcement. It is a catch-all excuse for everything that goes wrong, and will continue to be so. Car factory closing? Brexit. Steel company goes bankrupt? Brexit. Shortage of workers in catering/farming? Brexit. Pound falling, holidays more expensive? Brexit. Political paralysis? Brexit. Second referendum looms in Scotland? Brexit. No political progress in NI? Brexit. Foreign investment drying up? Brexit.Scott_P said:
They really will though.kinabalu said:Long years of UK/EU talks lie ahead but they will not be leading the news night after night.
Every job loss, every shortage, every avoidable death, every riot, will lead the news, for months
If the Tories think Johnson is going to wave a magic wand and make all this disappear they are even madder than we thought.0 -
And thus.... The Day of the Jackal.Cyclefree said:
De Gaulle’s solution was to tell the pieds noir that he felt their pain and then promptly betray them once in office.Fenman said:
It had no answer to the Algeria War. Only De Gaulle offered a solution.Charles said:I found this article interesting. On reading it, it seemed to me to be a very good description of Poujadism.
https://unherd.com/2019/07/farage-has-found-boriss-weak-spot/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
From Wiki
Poujadism flourished most vigorously in the last years of the Fourth Republic, and articulated the economic interests and grievances of shopkeepers and other proprietor-managers of small businesses facing economic and social change. The main themes of Poujadism concerned the defense of the common man against the elites.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poujade
May be this is a more apt comparison than with the BNP / Front Nationale, etc?
I don't remember enough of my studies of the Fifth Republic to know why it faded. Perhaps Charles de Gaulle was seen as enough of a strong/populist leader that the need for representation wasn't as strong?
But he certainly had a solution to the impotence of parliament.0 -
Sri Lanka have set the West Indies 339 to win. I think that could be beyond them unless Gayle and someone else really get going.0
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No doubt voters will blame the government either way.TGOHF said:
We will have to tune into the "Doom and Gloom at 10" every night to see whether it was Brexit or Climate Change to blame for the latest Cassandra warnings of the sky falling in.anothernick said:
Brexit already features in just about every corporate bad news announcement. It is a catch-all excuse for everything that goes wrong, and will continue to be so. Car factory closing? Brexit. Steel company goes bankrupt? Brexit. Shortage of workers in catering/farming? Brexit. Pound falling, holidays more expensive? Brexit. Political paralysis? Brexit. Second referendum looms in Scotland? Brexit. No political progress in NI? Brexit. Foreign investment drying up? Brexit.Scott_P said:
They really will though.kinabalu said:Long years of UK/EU talks lie ahead but they will not be leading the news night after night.
Every job loss, every shortage, every avoidable death, every riot, will lead the news, for months
If the Tories think Johnson is going to wave a magic wand and make all this disappear they are even madder than we thought.0 -
Buttigieg raised around $25m last quarter. Will be in the contest for a while.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/01/pete-buttigieg-campaign-second-quarter-13914790 -
If Hunt wins, will he strike a more conciliatory tone, having secured the crown?0
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Yes but what about the presenters and commentators - they are what the News is all about these days.DecrepitJohnL said:
No doubt voters will blame the government either way.TGOHF said:
We will have to tune into the "Doom and Gloom at 10" every night to see whether it was Brexit or Climate Change to blame for the latest Cassandra warnings of the sky falling in.anothernick said:
Brexit already features in just about every corporate bad news announcement. It is a catch-all excuse for everything that goes wrong, and will continue to be so. Car factory closing? Brexit. Steel company goes bankrupt? Brexit. Shortage of workers in catering/farming? Brexit. Pound falling, holidays more expensive? Brexit. Political paralysis? Brexit. Second referendum looms in Scotland? Brexit. No political progress in NI? Brexit. Foreign investment drying up? Brexit.Scott_P said:
They really will though.kinabalu said:Long years of UK/EU talks lie ahead but they will not be leading the news night after night.
Every job loss, every shortage, every avoidable death, every riot, will lead the news, for months
If the Tories think Johnson is going to wave a magic wand and make all this disappear they are even madder than we thought.
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Hunt is doing with Boris what Boris is doing with Farage - seeking to out bonkers him.rkrkrk said:
Probably a good headline for Hunt. He is showing creativity in his attempt to look tough on Brexit. Still feel though that he needs to go after Boris' character if he really wants to win.Scott_P said:
Thing is I can't say it won't be successful. Those who won't vote for Boris won't vote for Boris; those who are wavering on the Boris side might be won over.
How good is all this for the country? No fucking good at all. What a tragedy.0 -
Brexit repeats itself. First as farce, then as tragedy.TOPPING said:
Hunt is doing with Boris what Boris is doing with Farage - seeking to out bonkers him.rkrkrk said:
Probably a good headline for Hunt. He is showing creativity in his attempt to look tough on Brexit. Still feel though that he needs to go after Boris' character if he really wants to win.Scott_P said:
Thing is I can't say it won't be successful. Those who won't vote for Boris won't vote for Boris; those who are wavering on the Boris side might be won over.
How good is all this for the country? No fucking good at all. What a tragedy.0 -
Either of them is going to go into a meeting with the EU's people, sit down and say 'Now about this Withdrawal Agreement' and whoever is leading on their side is going to say 'Same as the one we agreed to with Mrs May!'TOPPING said:
Hunt is doing with Boris what Boris is doing with Farage - seeking to out bonkers him.rkrkrk said:
Probably a good headline for Hunt. He is showing creativity in his attempt to look tough on Brexit. Still feel though that he needs to go after Boris' character if he really wants to win.Scott_P said:
Thing is I can't say it won't be successful. Those who won't vote for Boris won't vote for Boris; those who are wavering on the Boris side might be won over.
How good is all this for the country? No fucking good at all. What a tragedy.0 -
O/T
Why on earth are West Indies 2.78 with Betfair Exchange when they would need the highest ever run chase at a World Cup match?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.1593610391 -
Well that's in the real world. We are talking about the Conservative party leadership election here.OldKingCole said:
Either of them is going to go into a meeting with the EU's people, sit down and say 'Now about this Withdrawal Agreement' and whoever is leading on their side is going to say 'Same as the one we agreed to with Mrs May!'TOPPING said:
Hunt is doing with Boris what Boris is doing with Farage - seeking to out bonkers him.rkrkrk said:
Probably a good headline for Hunt. He is showing creativity in his attempt to look tough on Brexit. Still feel though that he needs to go after Boris' character if he really wants to win.Scott_P said:
Thing is I can't say it won't be successful. Those who won't vote for Boris won't vote for Boris; those who are wavering on the Boris side might be won over.
How good is all this for the country? No fucking good at all. What a tragedy.0 -
No he's written the history books and Culloden never happened.Mortimer said:0 -
Though everyone would know it’s coming.rcs1000 said:
He can always do the pardoning in the window between the election and the inauguration.Nigelb said:Pence would probably do worse than a generic Republican, though (particularly in the pardoning Trump scenario).
The only way I see it playing out is Trump actually dying, and with access to the best US healthcare, the odds are possibly a bit longer than actuarial tables suggest, despite his diet/obesity.
I like Romney at 1000/1.
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We're waiting to see Jeremy Hunt's Brexit deal "that works for the people of Culloden".SquareRoot said:
No he's written the history books and Culloden never happened.Mortimer said:0 -
Yes of course the negotiation of a new relationship with Europe will be massively important and will feature large and for a very long time in British political life. In life generally to some extent.Cyclefree said:Brexit and its aftermath will be the single most important factor affecting British politics for years to come.
Far from the EU becoming a side story, as Brexiteers fondly hope, it will be the opposite. The legacy of Brexit and how it is being handled will have a much greater impact than people imagine. All this “moving on” nonsense is delusional.
However the bitterly divisive EVENT will be history. And assuming the WA is ratified the chaos of No Deal will have been averted.
We will 'move on' from that is what I mean. Brexit will have been drained of much of its 'culture war' poison when the existential question - leave or not - is settled, provided that we leave in orderly fashion.
None of this is to say that the EFFECTS of Brexit will not be felt for generations. They will. But the 'war' will be over.
I would draw a comparison with a real war. WW2. It's undeniable that the ramifications of that are long lasting and enormous - they are still with us today - but this does not mean that the end of the event itself (peace) was not a genuine 'moving on' compared to what came before.0 -
Bad news for Klobuchar fans.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowans-wont-vote-for-you-just-because-youre-their-neighbor/0 -
No one lives at Culloden anymore. There is a large visitor centre to remind the Jocks that they lost.. and that the Jacobites were put to the sword. (paid for by the Scots)williamglenn said:
We're waiting to see Jeremy Hunt's Brexit deal "that works for the people of Culloden".SquareRoot said:
No he's written the history books and Culloden never happened.Mortimer said:0 -
Is there any provision that necessarily restricts impeachments to individuals *currently* serving in office at the time?rcs1000 said:
He can always do the pardoning in the window between the election and the inauguration.Nigelb said:Pence would probably do worse than a generic Republican, though (particularly in the pardoning Trump scenario).
As we're playing fantasy constitutional politics, is it - at least theoretically - possible that Congress could impeach Trump *after* he leaves office (and, hence , after a Pence pardon, which can't apply to impeachments), and which would then override the pardon and make Trump potentially subject to the normal process of the law?0 -
Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.0 -
I've mentally written the bet I placed on her off.Nigelb said:Bad news for Klobuchar fans.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowans-wont-vote-for-you-just-because-youre-their-neighbor/0 -
I don't think the WW2 analogy is correct in this case - at the end of WW2 it was clear who had won and who had lost and the defeated were crushed - they had little choice but to accept their defeat - they could not continue the struggle. But the forces for and against Brexit are much more evenly matched - neither side is likely to crush the other in the near future, and unless that happens the struggle will continue.kinabalu said:
Yes of course the negotiation of a new relationship with Europe will be massively important and will feature large and for a very long time in British political life. In life generally to some extent.Cyclefree said:Brexit and its aftermath will be the single most important factor affecting British politics for years to come.
Far from the EU becoming a side story, as Brexiteers fondly hope, it will be the opposite. The legacy of Brexit and how it is being handled will have a much greater impact than people imagine. All this “moving on” nonsense is delusional.
However the bitterly divisive EVENT will be history. And assuming the WA is ratified the chaos of No Deal will have been averted.
We will 'move on' from that is what I mean. Brexit will have been drained of much of its 'culture war' poison when the existential question - leave or not - is settled, provided that we leave in orderly fashion.
None of this is to say that the EFFECTS of Brexit will not be felt for generations. They will. But the 'war' will be over.
I would draw a comparison with a real war. WW2. It's undeniable that the ramifications of that are long lasting and enormous - they are still with us today - but this does not mean that the end of the event itself (peace) was not a genuine 'moving on' compared to what came before.
And the chances of "leaving in an orderly fashion," already pretty minimal IMO, get smaller each time a leadership candidate opens his mouth.0 -
Good call so farAndyJS said:O/T
Why on earth are West Indies 2.78 with Betfair Exchange when they would need the highest ever run chase at a World Cup match?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.1593610390 -
Tell Jeremy Hunt that.SquareRoot said:
No one lives at Culloden anymore. There is a large visitor centre to remind the Jocks that they lost.. and that the Jacobites were put to the sword. (paid for by the Scots)williamglenn said:
We're waiting to see Jeremy Hunt's Brexit deal "that works for the people of Culloden".SquareRoot said:
No he's written the history books and Culloden never happened.Mortimer said:
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/11349141582883962880 -
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.0 -
A more appropriate WW2 analogy might be Dunkirk.anothernick said:I don't think the WW2 analogy is correct in this case - at the end of WW2 it was clear who had won and who had lost and the defeated were crushed - they had little choice but to accept their defeat - they could not continue the struggle. But the forces for and against Brexit are much more evenly matched - neither side is likely to crush the other in the near future, and unless that happens the struggle will continue.
And the chances of "leaving in an orderly fashion," already pretty minimal IMO, get smaller each time a leadership candidate opens his mouth.
Actually leaving the EU will be the forces of "remain" being rescued on the beach, ready to regroup for the eventual victory.
Winning this skirmish in the culture war is not the end, and we will not move on...0 -
More importantly, it's a reserved power.not_on_fire said:0 -
Ironically, on that basis, the form guide would be Boris.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.0 -
Daily Mail reporters, you say?Gallowgate said:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2019/07/mailonline-s-i-love-brexit-glastonbury-source-reporter-behind-story
I wonder how many of the cult who were so enthusiastically tweeting about this over the weekend will comment on this update.0 -
On topic, the logic looks good.0
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Rather appropriate use of 'Cassandra'.TGOHF said:
We will have to tune into the "Doom and Gloom at 10" every night to see whether it was Brexit or Climate Change to blame for the latest Cassandra warnings of the sky falling in.anothernick said:
Brexit already features in just about every corporate bad news announcement. It is a catch-all excuse for everything that goes wrong, and will continue to be so. Car factory closing? Brexit. Steel company goes bankrupt? Brexit. Shortage of workers in catering/farming? Brexit. Pound falling, holidays more expensive? Brexit. Political paralysis? Brexit. Second referendum looms in Scotland? Brexit. No political progress in NI? Brexit. Foreign investment drying up? Brexit.Scott_P said:
They really will though.kinabalu said:Long years of UK/EU talks lie ahead but they will not be leading the news night after night.
Every job loss, every shortage, every avoidable death, every riot, will lead the news, for months
If the Tories think Johnson is going to wave a magic wand and make all this disappear they are even madder than we thought.
"a woman in Greek mythology cursed to utter prophecies that were true but that no one believed."0 -
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I expect most people seeing it would have assumed he'd lost a bet or some such.AlastairMeeks said:
Daily Mail reporters, you say?Gallowgate said:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2019/07/mailonline-s-i-love-brexit-glastonbury-source-reporter-behind-story
I wonder how many of the cult who were so enthusiastically tweeting about this over the weekend will comment on this update.0 -
Well cry wolf for long enough..logical_song said:
Rather appropriate use of 'Cassandra'.TGOHF said:
We will have to tune into the "Doom and Gloom at 10" every night to see whether it was Brexit or Climate Change to blame for the latest Cassandra warnings of the sky falling in.anothernick said:
Brexit already features in just about every corporate bad news announcement. It is a catch-all excuse for everything that goes wrong, and will continue to be so. Car factory closing? Brexit. Steel company goes bankrupt? Brexit. Shortage of workers in catering/farming? Brexit. Pound falling, holidays more expensive? Brexit. Political paralysis? Brexit. Second referendum looms in Scotland? Brexit. No political progress in NI? Brexit. Foreign investment drying up? Brexit.Scott_P said:
They really will though.kinabalu said:Long years of UK/EU talks lie ahead but they will not be leading the news night after night.
Every job loss, every shortage, every avoidable death, every riot, will lead the news, for months
If the Tories think Johnson is going to wave a magic wand and make all this disappear they are even madder than we thought.
"a woman in Greek mythology cursed to utter prophecies that were true but that no one believed."0 -
You beat me to it.Charles said:
Isn’t that because the candidate who was arrested for assaulting their partner didn’t stand?MikeSmithson said:The big difference with the Lib Dem leadership contest is that neither of the contenders have had to have the courts placing restraining orders on them.
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I disagree.Charles said:
“Almost unique” is a phrase that makes my teeth grate.HYUFD said:
You are unique. Or you are not.
There is no “almost”
Certainly, there is a binary distinction between 'unique' and 'not unique', but 'almost unique' has its place too.
In the absence of a useful word to mean "one of only '2|3|4 etc' examples", 'almost unique' helpfully implies 'extremely rare but not unique', especially when the example is out of a large set.0 -
4 of 12 isn't half it is 1/3.not_on_fire said:0 -
Yes. But for Switzerland, the EU is a chronic disease. They talk and they talk. And there are changes. But they are mostly imperceptible.Mango said:
Nobody is listening to Ivan Rogers: if we aim to be like Switzerland (FTA, special partnership, all that stuff lying Dan Hannan waxes about), and actually achieve it, we will spend the rest of our days negotiating with the EU, all day, every day.TOPPING said:
We're not going to move on from Brexit until the last i is dotted and t crossed on the FTA with the EU and that, my friend, is years and years away.
We will not move on from Brexit until we revoke or rejoin.
Switzerland has mastered gradualism. There are changes every year. (And not all in one direction, I would note.)
And because each change is so small, it doesn't utterly dominate politics to the exclusion of all other issues.0 -
Congress could - but the only impeachment penalty available is disbarment from office, so no.david_herdson said:
Is there any provision that necessarily restricts impeachments to individuals *currently* serving in office at the time?rcs1000 said:
He can always do the pardoning in the window between the election and the inauguration.Nigelb said:Pence would probably do worse than a generic Republican, though (particularly in the pardoning Trump scenario).
As we're playing fantasy constitutional politics, is it - at least theoretically - possible that Congress could impeach Trump *after* he leaves office (and, hence , after a Pence pardon, which can't apply to impeachments), and which would then override the pardon and make Trump potentially subject to the normal process of the law?
Bills of Attainder being something the Founders were not particularly fond of.0 -
Strange. You can be almost dead but not almost pregnant. And if you can be almost unique can you also be almost not unique?david_herdson said:
I disagree.Charles said:
“Almost unique” is a phrase that makes my teeth grate.HYUFD said:
You are unique. Or you are not.
There is no “almost”
Certainly, there is a binary distinction between 'unique' and 'not unique', but 'almost unique' has its place too.
In the absence of a useful word to mean "one of only '2|3|4 etc' examples", 'almost unique' helpfully implies 'extremely rare but not unique', especially when the example is out of a large set.0 -
Culloden is a good metaphor for the Brexit referendum - gullible fervent religious believers, agitated by a continental foe fought for these foreign interests before getting a damned good thrashing due to superior tactics and weaponry.SquareRoot said:
No one lives at Culloden anymore. There is a large visitor centre to remind the Jocks that they lost.. and that the Jacobites were put to the sword. (paid for by the Scots)williamglenn said:
We're waiting to see Jeremy Hunt's Brexit deal "that works for the people of Culloden".SquareRoot said:
No he's written the history books and Culloden never happened.Mortimer said:
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I was almost not unique - but my identical twin died.Stark_Dawning said:
Strange. You can be almost dead but not almost pregnant. And if you can be almost unique can you also be almost not unique?david_herdson said:
I disagree.Charles said:
“Almost unique” is a phrase that makes my teeth grate.HYUFD said:
You are unique. Or you are not.
There is no “almost”
Certainly, there is a binary distinction between 'unique' and 'not unique', but 'almost unique' has its place too.
In the absence of a useful word to mean "one of only '2|3|4 etc' examples", 'almost unique' helpfully implies 'extremely rare but not unique', especially when the example is out of a large set.
(Not really, in case you were worried.)0 -
If the WA is ratified Farage will go phoney berserk, betrayal will be screamed from the rooftops and 25% or so of people will buy it - plenty enough to continue the Tory psycho-drama.kinabalu said:
Yes of course the negotiation of a new relationship with Europe will be massively important and will feature large and for a very long time in British political life. In life generally to some extent.Cyclefree said:Brexit and its aftermath will be the single most important factor affecting British politics for years to come.
Far from the EU becoming a side story, as Brexiteers fondly hope, it will be the opposite. The legacy of Brexit and how it is being handled will have a much greater impact than people imagine. All this “moving on” nonsense is delusional.
However the bitterly divisive EVENT will be history. And assuming the WA is ratified the chaos of No Deal will have been averted.
We will 'move on' from that is what I mean. Brexit will have been drained of much of its 'culture war' poison when the existential question - leave or not - is settled, provided that we leave in orderly fashion.
None of this is to say that the EFFECTS of Brexit will not be felt for generations. They will. But the 'war' will be over.
I would draw a comparison with a real war. WW2. It's undeniable that the ramifications of that are long lasting and enormous - they are still with us today - but this does not mean that the end of the event itself (peace) was not a genuine 'moving on' compared to what came before.
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Londoners poorer than most British regions, only NE significantly poorer. Shows the lie about the metropolitan elite. People in cities are more educated and younger, not elites.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48759591
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That's very much @isam's view too. And, I think it's plausible.rottenborough said:
Goodwin keeps arguing that there is a gap in UK politics for a socially conservative (tough on crime, tough on migrants, flag and family etc etc), but economically lefty (public spending on NHS, pensions, keeping British Steel etc etc).OnlyLivingBoy said:
The Tory party is not dying. It is already dead. Johnson and Hunt are fighting over the corpse.Cyclefree said:
Yes. And yes. The Tory party is dying before our eyes. What rough beast is being born to replace it, who can say? At the moment it looks to have adopted Corbyn’s spending plans.SouthamObserver said:The Tories have gone full fruit-loop, batshit crazy, haven’t they? It’s quite extraordinary.
Not sure whether the Boris tories are trying to get to that populist new point or have simply lost their minds.
Strikes me as odd that in order to win votes from the membership (generally southern-based, retired, well-off, small business, private sector backgrounds etc) they need to splash cash on public sector workers.
Unfortunately, along with much of the rest of metropolitan liberal elite, I don't find it a particularly attractive proposition.0 -
Behold the rhetorical gift of Marcus Fysh.
https://twitter.com/marcusfysh/status/1145680873817292801?s=210 -
The interesting thing will be to find out what Johnson has been lying about. He clearly is lying, but we can't be certain how until he becomes PM.david_herdson said:
Ironically, on that basis, the form guide would be Boris.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.
Having outsourced Brexit policy to Nigel Farage, though, any backtracking on that will destroy him almost immediately.
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I wonder if the Brexit party will run against the likes of Fysh. It's difficult to get much more Brexity than him specifically.williamglenn said:Behold the rhetorical gift of Marcus Fysh.
https://twitter.com/marcusfysh/status/1145680873817292801?s=210 -
Gross failing in living up to party tradition there, surely?MikeSmithson said:The big difference with the Lib Dem leadership contest is that neither of the contenders have had to have the courts placing restraining orders on them.
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Other than Brexit itself, nothing they say is of any relevance. They will firefighting an incoming sh*tstorm from day one, day and night.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.
To be honest, neither of them can command the house anyway the way they are both going.0 -
The actual Boris restraining order looks to be #fakenews created by the New Statesman's front page and the social media equivalent of chinese whispers.david_herdson said:
Gross failing in living up to party tradition there, surely?MikeSmithson said:The big difference with the Lib Dem leadership contest is that neither of the contenders have had to have the courts placing restraining orders on them.
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Of course, federal pardons cut no ice with state prosecution of crimes under state law, and a) SCOTUS recently upheld the "dual sovereigns" doctrine that means double jeopardy does not apply, and b) NYS recently changed its law to make state prosecutions for the same facts as federal prosecutions much easier.Nigelb said:
Congress could - but the only impeachment penalty available is disbarment from office, so no.david_herdson said:
Is there any provision that necessarily restricts impeachments to individuals *currently* serving in office at the time?rcs1000 said:
He can always do the pardoning in the window between the election and the inauguration.Nigelb said:Pence would probably do worse than a generic Republican, though (particularly in the pardoning Trump scenario).
As we're playing fantasy constitutional politics, is it - at least theoretically - possible that Congress could impeach Trump *after* he leaves office (and, hence , after a Pence pardon, which can't apply to impeachments), and which would then override the pardon and make Trump potentially subject to the normal process of the law?
Bills of Attainder being something the Founders were not particularly fond of.0 -
Fake news? In this day and age?Pulpstar said:
The actual Boris restraining order looks to be #fakenews created by the New Statesman's front page and the social media equivalent of chinese whispers.david_herdson said:
Gross failing in living up to party tradition there, surely?MikeSmithson said:The big difference with the Lib Dem leadership contest is that neither of the contenders have had to have the courts placing restraining orders on them.
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Against some of those Tories even the Brexit Party might be able to run a saner candidate.Pulpstar said:
I wonder if the Brexit party will run against the likes of Fysh. It's difficult to get much more Brexity than him specifically.williamglenn said:Behold the rhetorical gift of Marcus Fysh.
https://twitter.com/marcusfysh/status/1145680873817292801?s=210 -
NYT: "Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., raised $24.8 million over the past three months, his campaign said on Monday, a head-turning total that is likely to be among the largest disclosed by any of the Democratic presidential candidates for the second quarter of the year."0
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Even FIA decisions are getting the treatment.RobD said:
Fake news? In this day and age?Pulpstar said:
The actual Boris restraining order looks to be #fakenews created by the New Statesman's front page and the social media equivalent of chinese whispers.david_herdson said:
Gross failing in living up to party tradition there, surely?MikeSmithson said:The big difference with the Lib Dem leadership contest is that neither of the contenders have had to have the courts placing restraining orders on them.
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Congress can also bar from the impeached person holding office in the future as well but it's the other part of Section 3, paragraph 7 which is the interesting one to me:Nigelb said:
Congress could - but the only impeachment penalty available is disbarment from office, so no.david_herdson said:
Is there any provision that necessarily restricts impeachments to individuals *currently* serving in office at the time?rcs1000 said:
He can always do the pardoning in the window between the election and the inauguration.Nigelb said:Pence would probably do worse than a generic Republican, though (particularly in the pardoning Trump scenario).
As we're playing fantasy constitutional politics, is it - at least theoretically - possible that Congress could impeach Trump *after* he leaves office (and, hence , after a Pence pardon, which can't apply to impeachments), and which would then override the pardon and make Trump potentially subject to the normal process of the law?
Bills of Attainder being something the Founders were not particularly fond of.
but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law
In other words, even if a President Pence were to pardon Trump (or, perhaps more realistically, if Trump were to issue blanket pardons to himself, his family and associates), it might be possible to override that with a subsequent impeachment, even if he had by then left office.0 -
I can't say I'm too optimistic but my scenario is predicated on us leaving via a deal into a lengthy transition period in which to negotiate the new relationship.anothernick said:I don't think the WW2 analogy is correct in this case - at the end of WW2 it was clear who had won and who had lost and the defeated were crushed - they had little choice but to accept their defeat - they could not continue the struggle. But the forces for and against Brexit are much more evenly matched - neither side is likely to crush the other in the near future, and unless that happens the struggle will continue.
And the chances of "leaving in an orderly fashion," already pretty minimal IMO, get smaller each time a leadership candidate opens his mouth.
In that case I think there is a good chance that a great deal of the political and cultural poison from the issue will be drained off. The 'Brexit Crisis' - the one that is right now paralysing our politics and threatening to tear the country apart - will be over.
My main point, however, is to make the distinction between the event of Brexit (leaving) and the ongoing process and ramifications of Brexit (the future relationship talks and the impact on the country over time).
Just because the latter will be important and ongoing for ever and a day does not mean that the former cannot be a meaningful end of the crisis. I think it can be and this, for me, is the USP of the Withdrawal Agreement.0 -
Name the last PM that didn't lie - Mrs Thatcher ?SouthamObserver said:
The interesting thing will be to find out what Johnson has been lying about. He clearly is lying, but we can't be certain how until he becomes PM.david_herdson said:
Ironically, on that basis, the form guide would be Boris.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.
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Would fall foul of the double jeopardy rule - and in any case that is not about Congressional powers, but merely a statement that impeachment does not affect criminal liability one way or the other.david_herdson said:
Congress can also bar from the impeached person holding office in the future as well but it's the other part of Section 3, paragraph 7 which is the interesting one to me:Nigelb said:
Congress could - but the only impeachment penalty available is disbarment from office, so no.david_herdson said:
Is there any provision that necessarily restricts impeachments to individuals *currently* serving in office at the time?rcs1000 said:
He can always do the pardoning in the window between the election and the inauguration.Nigelb said:Pence would probably do worse than a generic Republican, though (particularly in the pardoning Trump scenario).
As we're playing fantasy constitutional politics, is it - at least theoretically - possible that Congress could impeach Trump *after* he leaves office (and, hence , after a Pence pardon, which can't apply to impeachments), and which would then override the pardon and make Trump potentially subject to the normal process of the law?
Bills of Attainder being something the Founders were not particularly fond of.
but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law
In other words, even if a President Pence were to pardon Trump (or, perhaps more realistically, if Trump were to issue blanket pardons to himself, his family and associates), it might be possible to override that with a subsequent impeachment, even if he had by then left office.
Note any pardon does not affect criminal liability at the State level, and the SC recently ruled that trying different criminal charges relating to the same activities at the state level does not violate the rule. The decision was not one which liberals were particularly happy with, but it does leave Trump on the hook.0 -
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Belgrano....TGOHF said:
Name the last PM that didn't lie - Mrs Thatcher ?SouthamObserver said:
The interesting thing will be to find out what Johnson has been lying about. He clearly is lying, but we can't be certain how until he becomes PM.david_herdson said:
Ironically, on that basis, the form guide would be Boris.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.0 -
Why can't you be almost pregnant?Stark_Dawning said:
Strange. You can be almost dead but not almost pregnant. And if you can be almost unique can you also be almost not unique?david_herdson said:
I disagree.Charles said:
“Almost unique” is a phrase that makes my teeth grate.HYUFD said:
You are unique. Or you are not.
There is no “almost”
Certainly, there is a binary distinction between 'unique' and 'not unique', but 'almost unique' has its place too.
In the absence of a useful word to mean "one of only '2|3|4 etc' examples", 'almost unique' helpfully implies 'extremely rare but not unique', especially when the example is out of a large set.
Surely the period during which the sperm is swimming towards the egg, but has not yet - errr - joined with it counts as "almost pregnant".1 -
I thought she was vindicated after the release of the cabinet papers.Nigelb said:
Belgrano....TGOHF said:
Name the last PM that didn't lie - Mrs Thatcher ?SouthamObserver said:
The interesting thing will be to find out what Johnson has been lying about. He clearly is lying, but we can't be certain how until he becomes PM.david_herdson said:
Ironically, on that basis, the form guide would be Boris.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.0 -
Er no.Nigelb said:
Belgrano....TGOHF said:
Name the last PM that didn't lie - Mrs Thatcher ?SouthamObserver said:
The interesting thing will be to find out what Johnson has been lying about. He clearly is lying, but we can't be certain how until he becomes PM.david_herdson said:
Ironically, on that basis, the form guide would be Boris.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.
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No, because of the uncertainty involved. That would be more like a Schroedinger pregnancy.rcs1000 said:
Why can't you be almost pregnant?Stark_Dawning said:
Strange. You can be almost dead but not almost pregnant. And if you can be almost unique can you also be almost not unique?david_herdson said:
I disagree.Charles said:
“Almost unique” is a phrase that makes my teeth grate.HYUFD said:
You are unique. Or you are not.
There is no “almost”
Certainly, there is a binary distinction between 'unique' and 'not unique', but 'almost unique' has its place too.
In the absence of a useful word to mean "one of only '2|3|4 etc' examples", 'almost unique' helpfully implies 'extremely rare but not unique', especially when the example is out of a large set.
Surely the period during which the sperm is swimming towards the egg, but has not yet - errr - joined with it counts as "almost pregnant".0 -
I'm not sure that's a useful concept other than in the dynamic sort of sense that Robert suggests (i.e. an example that came close to matching a unique occurrence but failed to do so).Stark_Dawning said:
Strange. You can be almost dead but not almost pregnant. And if you can be almost unique can you also be almost not unique?david_herdson said:
I disagree.Charles said:
“Almost unique” is a phrase that makes my teeth grate.HYUFD said:
You are unique. Or you are not.
There is no “almost”
Certainly, there is a binary distinction between 'unique' and 'not unique', but 'almost unique' has its place too.
In the absence of a useful word to mean "one of only '2|3|4 etc' examples", 'almost unique' helpfully implies 'extremely rare but not unique', especially when the example is out of a large set.
The number of instances that form 'not unique' can be either anything upwards from 2, or zero (which is a different single-value definition of 'not existing'). Hence, 'nearly unique' can be a useful measure of a very small (but greater than one) sub-set of a large total.
By contrast, every unique item is potentially nearly not unique, either by increasing by any amount, or by decreasing by the only possible amount. 'Almost' implies a kind of relativism which is redundant here so in a static model, I don't think 'almost not unique' has any useful meaning.1 -
Westland, according to her official biographer.TGOHF said:
Er no.Nigelb said:
Belgrano....TGOHF said:
Name the last PM that didn't lie - Mrs Thatcher ?SouthamObserver said:
The interesting thing will be to find out what Johnson has been lying about. He clearly is lying, but we can't be certain how until he becomes PM.david_herdson said:
Ironically, on that basis, the form guide would be Boris.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.
And that was to Parliament.0 -
It might be a valid description of the situation in retrospect - once the pregnancy was known - but not at the time.Nigelb said:
No, because of the uncertainty involved. That would be more like a Schroedinger pregnancy.rcs1000 said:
Why can't you be almost pregnant?Stark_Dawning said:
Strange. You can be almost dead but not almost pregnant. And if you can be almost unique can you also be almost not unique?david_herdson said:
I disagree.Charles said:
“Almost unique” is a phrase that makes my teeth grate.HYUFD said:
You are unique. Or you are not.
There is no “almost”
Certainly, there is a binary distinction between 'unique' and 'not unique', but 'almost unique' has its place too.
In the absence of a useful word to mean "one of only '2|3|4 etc' examples", 'almost unique' helpfully implies 'extremely rare but not unique', especially when the example is out of a large set.
Surely the period during which the sperm is swimming towards the egg, but has not yet - errr - joined with it counts as "almost pregnant".0 -
I think up until Blair, lying was extremely rare among our Prime Ministers. (At least in public.)TGOHF said:
Name the last PM that didn't lie - Mrs Thatcher ?SouthamObserver said:
The interesting thing will be to find out what Johnson has been lying about. He clearly is lying, but we can't be certain how until he becomes PM.david_herdson said:
Ironically, on that basis, the form guide would be Boris.TOPPING said:
In effect the sane wing of the Conservative party (yes there are one or two of us) are hoping that, once in office, either of the candidates turns out to have been lying like a cheap NAAFI watch.SandyRentool said:Hunt hs surprised me twice over during his leadership campaign.
Firstly, in the prelims, he came across as a much stronger candidate than I was expecting, and earned his place in the final two.
Secondly, once he made the final two, he has turned totally bonkers. As others have said, perhaps trying to out-Bozo Bozo might work. If he has decided that all other options would be useless, then shit-or-bust is the way to go. If he does win, I hope it is all an act, and sane Hunt occupies No. 10.
0
