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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The YouGov discrepancy: just how badly is LAB doing?
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People who don't like Corbyn can just pay attention to the regular YouGov polls and celebrate Labour being in 4th and doomed, the people who like Corbyn can just pay attention to other polls and celebrate Labour being in 1st and well positioned for the next election.
It doesn't help in terms of arguments though, especially if you have people arguing 'dishonestly' or maybe from genuine ignorance...
Received my letter from the Beeb yesterday, telling me about the new arrangements for over-75's TV licences. For some reason it's in printed in fairly large print; looks about a 20 font!
It also seems to say that although my previous licence year was March to February the new one will be June to May, as will be everyone else.
Why do I wonder about the system coping?
Polling's been tricky in this country even when there were just two large parties vying for government. With a quartet of large parties, plus the SNP in Scotland, it's going to be very hard indeed.
Hmmm.
The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.
The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.
Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
Bullying, plots and paranoia . . . inside his chaotic bunker
‘He doesn’t seem all there’ - taxing regime raises fear for Labour leader’s health
Labour finances head into the red as members rush for exit
Rebecca Long Bailey: Corbyn loyalist seen as heir apparent
Corbyn’s close ally Chris Williamson is suspended again over antisemitism claims
Meanwhile, over at Mail Online we have...
Jeremy Corbyn, 70, is 'too frail' to be PM and may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not 'physically or mentally' up to the job, senior civil servants fear
The big issue, I suspect, having 'watched' GP's at work is that you don't know what's going to walk through the surgery door next, and each time you've 10 minutes to assess and make a decision about whatever it is.
And many of the patients will expect you to have instant recall of the issues involved.
Could still be stressful but they do get paid shedloads and can afford to take several nice holidays as per original post.
I very much doubt it will not continue one way or another. Seems politicians of all parties are demanding the matter to be resolved in favour of pensioners, but of course it has absolutely nothing to do with the fact pensioners vote !!!!!!!
Last week I was watching Essex cricket and Essex won with a day and a half to spare. I was chatting to the lads running the bar, who told me that they were on 'hours worked' contracts so that was a day and a half's pay lost.
When I had a summer job as a student, on a seaside candy floss stall, we worked a standard day, whether it was raining or not. That, of course, was 60+ years ago.
(Imagine that said with a Yorkshire accent, while I'm sipping a brandy.)
(References lakes and gravel)
Which all GPs have to do on a regular - even daily - basis.
Must be soul destroying. I work long hours under difficult conditions but no way could I deal with that.
One of my colleagues does indeed have a two hour commute into work and the same home again.
Yes, I think he's mad as well.
For example, from the YouGov figures it looks as if BXP support has drifted a little during the month, which seems reasonable given their prominence in late May’s political headlines compared to near absence from the news this last month. Mori as good as admitted they need to change their prompting after their last poll, and their 12% looks like an outlier (although the fact that its rating depends so heavily on prompting suggests that BXP support may be rather fragile). Otherwise the 20-23% range seems credible. Say 21%.
If Mori is low on BXP, their ratings for other parties are going to be too high and need to be shaded down. On this basis the end month position for the Tories looks 20-24%, with all recent polls within MoE of 22%.
As David highlights, we are left with the single anomaly that YouGov scores Labour lower and the LibDems (and marginally the Greens) higher. The people YouGov is polling appear more energised by the EU/remain issue, by switching from Lab to LD/Green, than are those captured by other pollsters. YouGov can’t avoid polling people who spend more time online, however hard they try to slip political questions in at the end of surveys on skin conditions or shopping habits, and my guess is that these people are following the twists and turns of Brexit more closely than are people responding to the occasional polls from the other companies, some of which use the telephone (weren’t the more accurate EU election polls done by phone)?
My instinct is that the other companies are nearer the mark and we are probably looking at Lab 25%, Con 22%, BXP 21%, LibDem 17%, Green 7%. So one small consolation for the principal opposition party is that they are, just, in the lead, as they ought to be right now.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-supreme-court-stopped-the-census-citizenship-question-for-now/
The political effects (and, cynics would argue, why the GOP wants it there) are that it would reduce the apparent size of Democrat-leaning areas before seat boundaries are drawn.
This is interesting as it closely parallels what the 2010 government did here (some posters complained when I called it gerrymandering). Purge electoral rolls and make registration harder in order to reduce the apparent size of Labour-leaning towns and cities, then use it as the basis for redrawing boundaries. In order to make sure that every constituency is revisited and redrawn, reduce the number of seats to 600.
One irony is that collateral damage might have included ending Cameron and Osborne's political careers by disproportionately removing Remain-leaning voters before the Brexit referendum. A danger the government belatedly realised, organising a rushed registration campaign in the last days before voting.
Therefore analysis degenerates rapidly into 'how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?'
No way do I ever want to go back to the long distance commutes I had in my 20s.
ETA posh schools reverse this by having parents live outside the catchment area.
Corbyn too frail to be PM, fears civil service
Labour leader ‘propped up’ by advisers
Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.
This story could change everything:: Brexit, Next GE, Next Labour Leader, etc, etc.
I did however work at a school in South Wales near Chepstow where the majority of the staff commuted in from Cardiff. That was kind of interesting the day a motorcyclist got killed at Magor and the M4 was shut for five hours.
Now that really would be a hell of a commute!
Has pb's on-staff medical team noticed Corbyn looking particularly knackered at PMQs?
Cannock is not near a major airport, so I told them 'no.'
Putin is looking old (and more weird than normal) at the G20.
Cf teaching...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/29/labour-to-propose-wellbeing-law
Labour did this in Wales,. They introduced a Wellbeing of Future Generations Act, which requires decisions to be measured against a range of long-term outcomes, including public health, the environment and social cohesion.
It has been used in the most ridiculous cases.
In my North Walian home town, a empty bulding was bought by an English property rapist who wanted to turn into a vast hostel for drunken stag party and hen nights.
It was properly & promptly turned down at Planning Committee. For a start, the building is listed and in a National Park.
The property developer appealed to the Welsh Government, who promptly cited the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act as a reason to force it through.
It is a truly ridiculous piece of posturing, that is so vaguely framed and vaguely intentioned that it can be used to justify almost anything.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/48806595
Silverstone's future as a venue is at risk because the bigwigs idiotically want a race in (or just outside) London. Yeah, let's risk a good circuit for an identikit street track in the same sodding country.
Morons.
The tough stuff is psychological. The dread of missing something serious, constant attention to get at the underlying issues, the massive amount of mental distress, the perpetual queue outside the door, breaking bad news then greeting the next patient with a smile.
I work in the hospital sector, but take my cap off to my GP colleagues, who have to work across all specialities and with a minimum of investigations. To do it well requires great clinical skills.
From my point of view this trend is one of the biggest factors warping the U.K. economy. The need for offices to be near airports forces them into fewer big cities. This creating hotspots of wealth and rural ghost towns.
Brexit ironically has made that worse.
Edited extra bit: to clarify, we live in unusual times and many old conventions and etiquette seems to be getting jettisoned.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-40945691
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48807161
:"George Osborne plots political comeback as he sets sights on marginal seat"
The seat in question is Kensinton, where Labour currently has a majority of 20.
I would really struggle working regular hours again. Its one of the reasons (apart from incompetence) that I have not sought judicial office of any kind. I am fortunate and from my fortunate vantage find it bizarre that so many employers still focus on attendance instead of results. I have noted more employers accepting more flexible arrangements but it is still an absurdly rare exception.
There are many reasons to think Jezza is unsuited to be PM, but physical health and mental stamina are not amongst them. He has a healthy lifestyle and appears to be in robust health.
Moreover, even speaking as somebody who is hardly Corbyn's biggest fan, how would they know and at this moment, why would his health be any of their damn business?