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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020 could be the election that the US finally chooses a wom
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020 could be the election that the US finally chooses a woman
Over the past couple of nights we had the first tv debates of the battle in the Democratic party to secure the nomination for next year’s White House election to come up presumably against Donald Trump .
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Biden and Sanders poll much better v Trump than Warren or Harris do.
However the US arguably already has chosen a woman to lead them already, Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the House of Representatives which is US equivalent of the UK Prime Minister, even if there has been no female President as US Head of State yet
https://twitter.com/CMonaghanSNP/status/1144480185472843776
I can't even begin to describe how far this statement gets ahead of itself
I must confess I've not given the 2020 WH election much thought though I can obviously see the many trading opportunities for the more devoted players as fortunes wax and wane and gaffes are made and forgotten.
Slightly closer to home, the Greek GE is just over a week away and two new polls show New Democracy maintaining a solid 10 point lead over Syriza leading 39-29. That's a 9% swing to ND from last time and more than enough to put Mitsotakis into power and slightly redressing the European balance after the recent centre-left win in Denmark.
The latest German polls show the CDU/CSU and the Greens locked together at 25-27% each.
Back home, fascinating to read the Times front page and some sense of where a Johnson Government will take us. Clearly, he and his advisers have decided the threat of a No Deal economic slowdown can only be countered by a large dose of fiscal stimulus so "aggressive" tax cuts and the abolition of stamp duty for properties over £500k look options.
I'm opposed to all of this - if we have spare funds we should be paying down the debt and reducing interest payments so future generations aren't saddled with our profligacy. I'm also far from convinced a debt-fuelled consumption-led boom is going to be of any use except in terms of Johnson's short term political prospects - they've rarely ended well before.
But it some respects that's a bit meaningless, as the more ambitious ideas of the candidates (if elected) would run into Congress and go no further.
:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/the-shocking-inequality-between-kim-jong-un-and-his-people-laid-bare/ss-AADvvHk?ocid=spartanntp
Also like Bernie and Kamala she appears to have committed to banning private health insurance.
Fox has Warren ahead of Trump by 2% in the popular vote, same as Hillary, Harris is only up 1%, Biden leads Trump by 10% and Sanders by 9%
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-6-16.print
But it's definitely way more left-wing than anything Hillary ran on.
And it's rapidly approaching 40% if you include Employers NI...
There must be a decent chunk of swing voters who aren't going to want to lose their current private insurance. Even worse if it means things like people potentially having to go to a new consultant etc.
And for major treatment rich people will probably just go and get it done somewhere else like Canada.
But to suggest that head to head presidential polling against Democratic candidates - some of whom have been national politicians for years, even decades, and others who are at this stage barely known - holds any predictive meaning for the general election at the end of next year, is simply delusional.
What is of interest is how that head to head polling for each candidate changes over time.
Reducing employers’ NI would be more constructive than reducing corporation tax.
Raise NI on 50 to 65 year olds, Japan, the Netherlands etc fund social care through National Insurance largely
The other problem is that medicare rates are way lower than the rates insurance companies pay, so you end up bankrupting a bunch of hospitals.
I think it will turn out to be a problem even among Democratic primary voters, if some feisty centrist with a folksy manner and a strong sarcasm game starts going after the Bernie imitators.
Though probably not Bernie's.
Although the land taxation is good policy.
Should Bottas really be double Hamilton's odds for Austria quality ?
It'a been quite a good track for him.
That's why when we are looking at things for 2020 we are no longer looking at sheer number of votes and swing states it's the electoral collage and fly over states that are important...
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1144584397187944455
For Vladimir.
& Was it a good or a bad thing ?
This will be one of the key battlegrounds of the campaign (both nomination and general election). Threading the needle to win both is going to be tough going.
Though it's helped by Trump essentially not having a healthcare policy.
Larry Sabato's take on the issue as raised last night is interesting:
Harris powerfully reproached Biden for his opposition to school busing to achieve racial balance in the 1970s, noting that she had benefitted from busing. It was another time and place, and older observers (including one of us) recall that plenty of Democrats were damaged or defeated because of their support of busing, which was greatly unpopular among whites and also disliked by many blacks, because it limited extracurricular activities and resulted in many students leaving home very early and returning home after dark. But none of that matters now, and Biden is paying a price. Biden didn’t answer these criticisms well, and some of his staff privately said he hadn’t followed the script they’d devised.
http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2-debates-20-candidates-26-hours/
I think after the July 30th debate, things will solidify, and it will be time to place longer term bets, but for now I'm still ducking and diving.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1144597440475148289
a. A promotion of racial integration by moving ethnic children to a predominantly white school by bus.
Or
b. Cardboard modelling of transportation systems by B. Johnson Esq.
That it was unpopular at the time isn't really the point today.
Fantastic.
(Busing is mentioned.)
"A Frenchman who killed his parents, wife and children after pretending for two decades to be a successful doctor, in a case that inspired a book and films, has been released on parole after 26 years in jail, his lawyer said Friday.
Jean-Claude Romand murdered his parents, wife and two children in 1993 as they were about to learn about his double life."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/28/notorious-fake-doctor-killed-entire-family-found-freed-26-years/
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bussing
Biden should say he thought they were talking about that.
Where's your British spirit ?
As to bankrupting hospitals due to lower rates, no-one in the US actually pays the hospitals' sticker prices, insurance co.s "negotiate" massive discounts and even private payers can arrive at payment plans which usually result in a hefty wedge off the notional price.
And most ordinary peoples' employer-provided insurance plans are becoming junk insurance, Obamacare minimums not withstanding, with huge deductibles heading towards $10k per person per year and < 100% reimbursement. Typically you have to pay 10-20% "co-insurance" even after the deductible has been met. So great, the insurance company pays for 90% of your (negotiated down) $150k hospital stay after a bad accident but you're still on the hook for $15k. 4/5s of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, and they aren't going to be able to afford that. This is exactly the situation my wife's cousin is in and his family have had to resort to a GoFundMe to pay his bills.
So it ought to be pretty easy for the Democrats to point out how much better universal healthcare would be, but whether they can actually pull that off is another matter.
That was not a well timed suggestion.
Just stuffed it into the wall.
Got the tee shirt.
But I do try to stay in touch with ordinary people. Indeed I have conversed with them on several occasions.
(And his response was pretty 'shouty', too.)
54% Clinton 41% Bush
56% Clinton 37% Christie
56% Clinton 39% Rubio
57% Clinton 38% Walker
59% Clinton 34% Trump
In fact I think Clinton would have won against any of the other candidates, and Trump was always likely to be her toughest opponent.
https://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/01/politics/donald-trump-poll-hillary-clinton-jeb-bush/index.html
And does one good debate performance really justify making her the 3-1 favourite ?
Barely-related PS: My friend's mother died in the ambulance on the way to hospital. The hospital sent the estate a bill for $60,000 for preparing the room and the people who would have tried to treat her if she'd made it there.