Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
And you think this is good?
Salvini, Orban, Putin, Bolsonaro, Modi, Netanyahu etc are strong leaders whether you like them or not and Boris will be a stronger leader than May was
You mean Salvini the deputy leader?
I mean Salvini whose coalition has most seats with Berlusconi and whose party leads Italian polls
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
And you think this is good?
Salvini, Orban, Putin, Bolsonaro, Modi, Netanyahu etc are strong leaders whether you like them or not and Boris will be a stronger leader than May was
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days.
The story debunked by the factcheck piece I linked???
No you demonstrate the unreliability of so called fact check. Harris should have said she was in the second class of kids that were bussed to different schools to make racial % quota's which is true. Berkeley school district integrated in the early 60's but started bussing kids to schools outside the normal school lines to make higher % of each race at each of their schools. Fact check will say she told the truth even though the schools were already integrated. Berkeley was forced to meet racial quota's in 1968, not that the schools were totally segregated in 1968 like she implied.
it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days.
The story debunked by the factcheck piece I linked???
No you demonstrate the unreliability of so called fact check. Harris should have said she was in the second class of kids that were bussed to different schools to make racial % quota's which is true. Berkeley school district integrated in the early 60's but started bussing kids to schools outside the normal school lines to make higher % of each race at each of their schools. Fact check will say she told the truth even though the schools were already integrated. Berkeley was forced to meet racial quota's in 1968, not that the schools were totally segregated in 1968 like she implied.
This sounds so obtuse. It's like you are trying to fit a smear piece from Fringe site Gateway Pundit to the facts.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
Did you read the attachment about the steps each business will have to have gone through in order to be allowed on the ferry?
I'd trust Tesco procurement to expedite anything quicker than central government.
If cucumbers grown in Egypt and Mexico can come in easier and more economically via Southampton than Polish ones via Holland well guess what ..
As it says in the thread, the big firms like the supermarkets aren't likely to be the problem, although their lorries would still be in the queue.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
Did you read the attachment about the steps each business will have to have gone through in order to be allowed on the ferry?
I'd trust Tesco procurement to expedite anything quicker than central government.
If cucumbers grown in Egypt and Mexico can come in easier and more economically via Southampton than Polish ones via Holland well guess what ..
As it says in the thread, the big firms like the supermarkets aren't likely to be the problem, although their lorries would still be in the queue.
And other suppliers are available - outside the EU.
The EU may put up barriers but others will fill the void.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
And you think this is good?
Salvini, Orban, Putin, Bolsonaro, Modi, Netanyahu etc are strong leaders whether you like them or not and Boris will be a stronger leader than May was
So you do.
With such extreme views, the mystery is how you came to vote Remain.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Not post-Brexit.
You're assuming the EU will offer UK citizens less generous access than US, Australian, Mexican or Argentinian citizens?
Why?
They've said they will.
but to get a better one we’ll need to offer better for EU citizens, too.
We already have:
EU citizens arriving in the UK who wish to stay longer than 3 months and apply for European Temporary Leave to Remain will be subject to identity, criminality and security checks before being granted permission to stay for three years.
Apart from a few things such as wine most of those goods could be produced in the UK.
And while consumers might not like any change and disruption at some point this country will have to live within its means.
A goods trade deficit is not evidence of a country living beyond its means. It is indicative of a country that makes its living through services and by earning money on its foreign assets. If we were living beyond our means then our net international investment position (difference between assets and liabilities) would have been becoming more negative. In fact, since 2012 it has become less negative by around £340bn and is at around the same level as a decade ago. This obsession with the pursuit of autarky is ridiculous, although like Mr Rentoul I agree that British beer is superior to any of this foreign grape based muck.
But the UK's surplus in services is far smaller than its deficit in goods.
Which is why the UK has an overall trade deficit and has done so for the last 22 consecutive years.
Likewise the UK has an even larger balance of payments deficit.
Fabulous news! Kamala is my bet and it's a big one. I got 8/1 and was starting to hate it as she drifted to double that - but now she strikes and she makes it count. All of my confidence has returned. Only wish I had topped up yesterday at the 16s. Hard to see her not getting the nomination now and she will massacre the rancid old incumbent in the general. It's going to be President Harris. What an improvement that will be. Morning has broken in America. The torch has passed. Here comes the sun. We are the World, we are the ...
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been to lay 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' at around the 3.5 mark on Betfair on the grounds that 3.5 is absurdly short for something which is quite simply not happening. The price ought to be much much bigger and my opinion on this has now been validated by no less a figure than the man who is about to be our Prime Minister. According to Boris Johnson the odds of a No Deal should realistically be ONE MILLION to one. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
Next Wednesday the first sitting of the 2019-2024 EU Parliament term will take place.
Political groups formed
European People's Party: 182 MEPs. Chair: Manfred Weber (Germany)
Socialists and Democrats: 154 MEPs. Chair: Iratxe García (Spain)
Renew Europe (ex ALDE) 108 MEPs. Chair: Dacian Cioloș (Romania)
Greens/European Free Alliance: 75 MEPs. Co-chairs: Ska Keller (Germany) and Philippe Lamberts (Belgium)
Identity and Democracy: 73 MEPs. Chair: Marco Zanni (Italy)
European Conservatives and Democrats: 62 MEPs. Co-chairs: Ryszard Legutko (Poland) and Raffaelle Fitto (Italy)
European United Left-Nordic Green Left: 41 MEPs. Interim co-chairs: João Ferreira (Portugal), Marisa Matias (Portugal), Martin Schirdewan (Germany) and Nikolaj Villumsen (Denmark)
Not attached: 56 MEPs They are: 1 Germany's Die Partei, 2 Greek Communists, 2 Golden Dawn, 2 Junts per Catalunya, 2 from Croatia (ŽIVI ZID and Mislav Kolakušić), 1 Hungary's Jobbik, 14 Italy's 5 Stars, 2 Slovakia's ĽSNS, 29 Brexit Party, 1 DUP
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
Did you read the attachment about the steps each business will have to have gone through in order to be allowed on the ferry?
I'd trust Tesco procurement to expedite anything quicker than central government.
If cucumbers grown in Egypt and Mexico can come in easier and more economically via Southampton than Polish ones via Holland well guess what ..
As it says in the thread, the big firms like the supermarkets aren't likely to be the problem, although their lorries would still be in the queue.
The strawberries in my fridge are grown in Kent. I thought @another_richard would like to know that.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
And you think this is good?
Salvini, Orban, Putin, Bolsonaro, Modi, Netanyahu etc are strong leaders whether you like them or not and Boris will be a stronger leader than May was
So you do.
With such extreme views, the mystery is how you came to vote Remain.
He is a Tory loyalist IMO. If he thought Rory Stewart was the answer to the Conservatives problems he would back him... he is more arguing for the position of Boris as leader than his belief that these people are great leaders he would like to emulate...
That is the impression I get anyway, happy to be corrected.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
The bigger picture is that regardless of rights and wrongs, the market will adapt and the long term trends could change the status quo.
Uk haulage firms may lose out to EU firms.
EU cold chain suppliers may lose out to global or Uk suppliers.
Some Uk ports may have to increase capacity - some may wither.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
So sort out the correct paperwork. FFS its not rocket science.
From when the new PM is elected there will be 3 months and 1 week until Halloween. No reason paperwork can't be resolved in that time.
Apart from a few things such as wine most of those goods could be produced in the UK.
And while consumers might not like any change and disruption at some point this country will have to live within its means.
A goods trade deficit is not evidence of a country living beyond its means. It is indicative of a country that makes its living through services and by earning money on its foreign assets. If we were living beyond our means then our net international investment position (difference between assets and liabilities) would have been becoming more negative. In fact, since 2012 it has become less negative by around £340bn and is at around the same level as a decade ago. This obsession with the pursuit of autarky is ridiculous, although like Mr Rentoul I agree that British beer is superior to any of this foreign grape based muck.
But the UK's surplus in services is far smaller than its deficit in goods.
Which is why the UK has an overall trade deficit and has done so for the last 22 consecutive years.
Likewise the UK has an even larger balance of payments deficit.
And that's why the UK's net international investment position has been in decline throughout that period - RCS will give you the details.
This casual complacency that the UK can continually consume more wealth than it creates is ridiculous.
What is odd is that all the talk from May's WA onwards is of getting an FTA in goods, where we are in deficit, and nothing about services.
What does not help though is selling everything off, from trains to Legoland, to foreign investors, because, all other things being equal, it means their profits flow out of the country.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
Did you read the attachment about the steps each business will have to have gone through in order to be allowed on the ferry?
I'd trust Tesco procurement to expedite anything quicker than central government.
If cucumbers grown in Egypt and Mexico can come in easier and more economically via Southampton than Polish ones via Holland well guess what ..
As it says in the thread, the big firms like the supermarkets aren't likely to be the problem, although their lorries would still be in the queue.
The strawberries in my fridge are grown in Kent. I thought @another_richard would like to know that.
Surely eating strawberries from the Uk is better for global warming than shipping cucumbers in from Poland and Holland ? Seems odd to champion such wasteful transportation.
Perhaps we may end up eating more British produce - can only be a good thing.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
And you think this is good?
Salvini, Orban, Putin, Bolsonaro, Modi, Netanyahu etc are strong leaders whether you like them or not and Boris will be a stronger leader than May was
So you do.
With such extreme views, the mystery is how you came to vote Remain.
Boris will be stronger than May! More faint praise, though even this is probably an exaggeration. Assuming the party faithful + entryists do vote for him, he will have an even weaker position in parliament with a large group that despise him far more than May was despised.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
So sort out the correct paperwork. FFS its not rocket science.
From when the new PM is elected there will be 3 months and 1 week until Halloween. No reason paperwork can't be resolved in that time.
And software bought (not written it will need ready made) and users trained to use it and manually transfer data from system 1 to system 2 (integrations couldn't be created in time).
For most transport companies Brexit will be a transformation event.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
The bigger picture is that regardless of rights and wrongs, the market will adapt and the long term trends could change the status quo.
Uk haulage firms may lose out to EU firms.
EU cold chain suppliers may lose out to global or Uk suppliers.
Some Uk ports may have to increase capacity - some may wither.
Interesting times ahead.
The problem is that the ports we use for rapid delivery (drive on drive off) already run at full capacity continually..
it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days.
The story debunked by the factcheck piece I linked???
No you demonstrate the unreliability of so called fact check. Harris should have said she was in the second class of kids that were bussed to different schools to make racial % quota's which is true. Berkeley school district integrated in the early 60's but started bussing kids to schools outside the normal school lines to make higher % of each race at each of their schools. Fact check will say she told the truth even though the schools were already integrated. Berkeley was forced to meet racial quota's in 1968, not that the schools were totally segregated in 1968 like she implied.
What's interesting is her claim that this had a meaningful effect on her career:
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
So sort out the correct paperwork. FFS its not rocket science.
It should have been sorted out by the end of March - but wasn't. Boris "no-deal is 1,000,000 to 1" isn't exactly going to encourage them to get on with it.....
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
More wings, more prayers. Brexit; the most pointless futile exercise since politicians invented pointless futile exercises to keep them looking important in the eyes of the supremely gullible.
The question is whether Biden’s campaign can survive the loss of inevitability. He could fade away leaving a Warren v Harris final two.
Biden is virtually certain to make the final 2 and it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days. Harris is very much a politician from the Clinton school, careerist who will do what it takes to climb the ladder, not so polished though when the questions are not pre prepared. Warren is a much more polished performer and I have long thought the opponent Trump would most not relish debating. However she has left herself wide open already so stupidly, even so Biden being so close to Obama will potentially help Trump even more as Spygate becomes the big story in the USA next year.
My money is on Warren ending up getting the gig and if the economy holds solid Trump winning 2020 by a similar margin to 2016.
Interesting. Personally I currently also think Warren will win the nomination and go on to defeat Trump in 2020.
The question the Dems need to focus on is who will GOTV. The Midterms showed that even with the country doing quite well, they do have a majority if the base is energised. Warren is a tad Northern/intellectual, but she is popular with young activists, so perhaps that can be counteracted.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
The bigger picture is that regardless of rights and wrongs, the market will adapt and the long term trends could change the status quo.
Uk haulage firms may lose out to EU firms.
EU cold chain suppliers may lose out to global or Uk suppliers.
Some Uk ports may have to increase capacity - some may wither.
Interesting times ahead.
The problem is that the ports we use for rapid delivery (drive on drive off) already run at full capacity continually..
As mentioned - we are having a meltdown over single use plastic bags and a third runway but care not about the environmental impact of haulage firms transporting chilled produce for thousands of miles just so we can have perfect cucumbers.
Apart from a few things such as wine most of those goods could be produced in the UK.
And while consumers might not like any change and disruption at some point this country will have to live within its means.
If No Deal Brexit means more people drinking good British ale instead of poncy foreign wine then we have at least one upside.
There was the story of Agent Garbo who convinced the Nazis he was running two dozen spies in Britain. Unsurprisingly, considering that he had never visited the UK, he made some factual mistakes. One of the best known was his remark to his German controller that on a visit to Glasgow he had found men who "would do anything for a litre of wine". Fortunately it appears that the Germans were equally unaware of Glaswegian drinking habits. https://www.mi5.gov.uk/agent-garbo
And that's why the UK's net international investment position has been in decline throughout that period - RCS will give you the details.
This casual complacency that the UK can continually consume more wealth than it creates is ridiculous.
Have you read my comments? I pointed out that the UK's net International investment position has increased over the last 6 years and is the same as it was a decade ago, so your statement that the NIIP "has been in decline throughout that period" is simply not correct. The secret to understanding the UK's international transactions is to recognise that it has extremely high gross asset and liability positions, and its foreign assets are riskier and higher return overall. Moreover, some of this return is delivered via capital gains rather than coupons or dividends, and so does not affect the BOP. Hence our consistent current account deficits but stable NIIP. To be honest I would rather the UK's economy was more balanced and we had a smaller trade deficit, but I don't think the current situation is unsustainable - even if it is suboptimal in many ways. One technical point: you cannot have a balance of payments deficit: by construction the balance of payments sums to zero. One final point - we have a floating currency which adjusts to maintain equilibrium. When things happen to affect our ability to earn foreign currency, it adjusts. Hence the move in 2016.
Fabulous news! Kamala is my bet and it's a big one. I got 8/1 and was starting to hate it as she drifted to double that - but now she strikes and she makes it count. All of my confidence has returned. Only wish I had topped up yesterday at the 16s. Hard to see her not getting the nomination now and she will massacre the rancid old incumbent in the general. It's going to be President Harris. What an improvement that will be. Morning has broken in America. The torch has passed. Here comes the sun. We are the World, we are the ...
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been to lay 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' at around the 3.5 mark on Betfair on the grounds that 3.5 is absurdly short for something which is quite simply not happening. The price ought to be much much bigger and my opinion on this has now been validated by no less a figure than the man who is about to be our Prime Minister. According to Boris Johnson the odds of a No Deal should realistically be ONE MILLION to one. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
The question the Dems need to focus on is who will GOTV. The Midterms showed that even with the country doing quite well, they do have a majority if the base is energised. Warren is a tad Northern/intellectual, but she is popular with young activists, so perhaps that can be counteracted.
Trump has the Dem base sufficiently riled up, they'll turn out for anybody.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
Did you read the attachment about the steps each business will have to have gone through in order to be allowed on the ferry?
I'd trust Tesco procurement to expedite anything quicker than central government.
If cucumbers grown in Egypt and Mexico can come in easier and more economically via Southampton than Polish ones via Holland well guess what ..
As it says in the thread, the big firms like the supermarkets aren't likely to be the problem, although their lorries would still be in the queue.
The strawberries in my fridge are grown in Kent. I thought @another_richard would like to know that.
Surely eating strawberries from the Uk is better for global warming than shipping cucumbers in from Poland and Holland ? Seems odd to champion such wasteful transportation.
Perhaps we may end up eating more British produce - can only be a good thing.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
The bigger picture is that regardless of rights and wrongs, the market will adapt and the long term trends could change the status quo.
Uk haulage firms may lose out to EU firms.
EU cold chain suppliers may lose out to global or Uk suppliers.
Some Uk ports may have to increase capacity - some may wither.
Interesting times ahead.
The problem is that the ports we use for rapid delivery (drive on drive off) already run at full capacity continually..
As mentioned - we are having a meltdown over single use plastic bags and a third runway but care not about the environmental impact of haulage firms transporting chilled produce for thousands of miles just so we can have perfect cucumbers.
Fabulous news! Kamala is my bet and it's a big one. I got 8/1 and was starting to hate it as she drifted to double that - but now she strikes and she makes it count. All of my confidence has returned. Only wish I had topped up yesterday at the 16s. Hard to see her not getting the nomination now and she will massacre the rancid old incumbent in the general. It's going to be President Harris. What an improvement that will be. Morning has broken in America. The torch has passed. Here comes the sun. We are the World, we are the ...
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been to lay 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' at around the 3.5 mark on Betfair on the grounds that 3.5 is absurdly short for something which is quite simply not happening. The price ought to be much much bigger and my opinion on this has now been validated by no less a figure than the man who is about to be our Prime Minister. According to Boris Johnson the odds of a No Deal should realistically be ONE MILLION to one. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
If you think hitting back hard will be over the technical minutia of what does and doesn't count as segregated schooling and bussing then you are crazy.
One thought on the pmdfoster thread . . . all the issues appear to be specific to exporting. If there's an inconvenience to exporters they can and will have to deal with it and sort their paperwork out.
The idea that the supermarket shelves will run dry is unlikely if the Calais are waving through European exporters.
The question is whether Biden’s campaign can survive the loss of inevitability. He could fade away leaving a Warren v Harris final two.
Biden is virtually certain to make the final 2 and it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days. Harris is very much a politician from the Clinton school, careerist who will do what it takes to climb the ladder, not so polished though when the questions are not pre prepared. Warren is a much more polished performer and I have long thought the opponent Trump would most not relish debating. However she has left herself wide open already so stupidly, even so Biden being so close to Obama will potentially help Trump even more as Spygate becomes the big story in the USA next year.
My money is on Warren ending up getting the gig and if the economy holds solid Trump winning 2020 by a similar margin to 2016.
Interesting. Personally I currently also think Warren will win the nomination and go on to defeat Trump in 2020.
Warren is Kerry in a skirt except more left liberal.
Trump likely beats her, Warren and Harris poll significantly worse v Trump head to head than Biden and Sanders
Head to head polling for next year's election at this stage of the contest is essentially.... meaningless.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
Surely in terms of "calling it", the only ones that matter are the Tory members? (I'm assuming not all your friends are Tory members, both from common sense and because you mention they include some "normal people").
haha no this is amongst Tory members. The conversation is actually quite funny, not quite AA type enquiry but at some point, someone, sotto voce, will ask "do you have a vote?".
So exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
I haven't canvassed all the members I know who are members, but anecdotally from a very small sample I can say the majority think like me, that he is highly unsuitable and will damage the party and the country.
Fabulous news! Kamala is my bet and it's a big one. I got 8/1 and was starting to hate it as she drifted to double that - but now she strikes and she makes it count. All of my confidence has returned. Only wish I had topped up yesterday at the 16s. Hard to see her not getting the nomination now and she will massacre the rancid old incumbent in the general. It's going to be President Harris. What an improvement that will be. Morning has broken in America. The torch has passed. Here comes the sun. We are the World, we are the ...
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been to lay 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' at around the 3.5 mark on Betfair on the grounds that 3.5 is absurdly short for something which is quite simply not happening. The price ought to be much much bigger and my opinion on this has now been validated by no less a figure than the man who is about to be our Prime Minister. According to Boris Johnson the odds of a No Deal should realistically be ONE MILLION to one. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
If you think hitting back hard will be over the technical minutia of what does and doesn't count as segregated schooling and bussing then you are crazy.
I think they make a fair point about the fact checkers. There was that case over here where they censured The Times for saying foreign rather than foreign-born, when in reality the difference would have been minimal. I'm not sure how segregated the neighborhoods were in 1960s, but she did give the impression that the schools were exclusively white/black pre-1968 which I don't think is the case.
Fabulous news! Kamala is my bet and it's a big one. I got 8/1 and was starting to hate it as she drifted to double that - but now she strikes and she makes it count. All of my confidence has returned. Only wish I had topped up yesterday at the 16s. Hard to see her not getting the nomination now and she will massacre the rancid old incumbent in the general. It's going to be President Harris. What an improvement that will be. Morning has broken in America. The torch has passed. Here comes the sun. We are the World, we are the ...
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been to lay 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' at around the 3.5 mark on Betfair on the grounds that 3.5 is absurdly short for something which is quite simply not happening. The price ought to be much much bigger and my opinion on this has now been validated by no less a figure than the man who is about to be our Prime Minister. According to Boris Johnson the odds of a No Deal should realistically be ONE MILLION to one. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
Not to be confused with the Biden who flopped in his last two primary campaigns?
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
The bigger picture is that regardless of rights and wrongs, the market will adapt and the long term trends could change the status quo.
Uk haulage firms may lose out to EU firms.
EU cold chain suppliers may lose out to global or Uk suppliers.
Some Uk ports may have to increase capacity - some may wither.
Interesting times ahead.
The problem is that the ports we use for rapid delivery (drive on drive off) already run at full capacity continually..
They put all their eggs in one basket ( port ) as they , as usual , only consider the south east of England. Now they will pay for it big time. PS:the public will of course
it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days.
The story debunked by the factcheck piece I linked???
No you demonstrate the unreliability of so called fact check. Harris should have said she was in the second class of kids that were bussed to different schools to make racial % quota's which is true. Berkeley school district integrated in the early 60's but started bussing kids to schools outside the normal school lines to make higher % of each race at each of their schools. Fact check will say she told the truth even though the schools were already integrated. Berkeley was forced to meet racial quota's in 1968, not that the schools were totally segregated in 1968 like she implied.
This sounds so obtuse. It's like you are trying to fit a smear piece from Fringe site Gateway Pundit to the facts.
No the timeline clearly says she was lying and it isn't just one fringe site that has picked up on this. Biden will use this if he needs to the facts yet again are not the real facts.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
The bigger picture is that regardless of rights and wrongs, the market will adapt and the long term trends could change the status quo.
Uk haulage firms may lose out to EU firms.
EU cold chain suppliers may lose out to global or Uk suppliers.
Some Uk ports may have to increase capacity - some may wither.
Interesting times ahead.
The problem is that the ports we use for rapid delivery (drive on drive off) already run at full capacity continually..
As mentioned - we are having a meltdown over single use plastic bags and a third runway but care not about the environmental impact of haulage firms transporting chilled produce for thousands of miles just so we can have perfect cucumbers.
No you demonstrate the unreliability of so called fact check. Harris should have said she was in the second class of kids that were bussed to different schools to make racial % quota's which is true. Berkeley school district integrated in the early 60's but started bussing kids to schools outside the normal school lines to make higher % of each race at each of their schools. Fact check will say she told the truth even though the schools were already integrated. Berkeley was forced to meet racial quota's in 1968, not that the schools were totally segregated in 1968 like she implied.
Fact check says:
le it’s true that the high school was integrated, the rest of the district wasn’t, according to a report commissioned by the school board that was completed in 1963 and led to the full integration of the district in 1968. The report itself isn’t available online, but at least two academic studies that rely heavily on it are available.
The high school was integrated before the rest of the district because there was only one high school. All students — regardless of race — went there for high school.
The 14 elementary schools in the Berkeley Unified School District were a different story. They each drew students from the neighborhoods they were in. Those neighborhoods were segregated. So, while the schools didn’t have an official segregation policy, they were, effectively, segregated.
Are you taking issue with the factual claim that although the elementary schools didn’t have an official segregation policy, they were segregated in practice? Or are you saying that's correct, but Harris used some form of words that claims that they were *officially* segregated?
I mean, the whole point of the "bussing in" concept is that the schools aren't officially segregated, but because different racial groups live in different areas they effectively are, so if you want to avoid that you have to put some of the kids on buses and get them to schools in areas where they don't live. [*]
[*] Or you could repeal the town planning laws that have the practical effect of keeping black families out of white areas, but that will upset the nimbies.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
Yeah let’s get this thread back on track. Harris is like 800/1 shot. Anyone who isn’t t laying her right now must have only 10 quid bankroll (I spent 10 on SA)
Fabulous news! Kamala is my bet and it's a big one. I got 8/1 and was starting to hate it as she drifted to double that - but now she strikes and she makes it count. All of my confidence has returned. Only wish I had topped up yesterday at the 16s. Hard to see her not getting the nomination now and she will massacre the rancid old incumbent in the general. It's going to be President Harris. What an improvement that will be. Morning has broken in America. The torch has passed. Here comes the sun. We are the World, we are the ...
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been to lay 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' at around the 3.5 mark on Betfair on the grounds that 3.5 is absurdly short for something which is quite simply not happening. The price ought to be much much bigger and my opinion on this has now been validated by no less a figure than the man who is about to be our Prime Minister. According to Boris Johnson the odds of a No Deal should realistically be ONE MILLION to one. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
Not to be confused with the Biden who flopped in his last two primary campaigns?
Against much higher quality fields, that he even feels the need to run at his age says an awful lot. Biden has the big advantage in this race as he is best known so he has a head start.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton by 3m but fluked the electoral college with those wafer thin majorities in the rust belt.
If he faces a 'super Clinton' - female, mixed race, competent AND charismatic - I cannot see him winning. I will go further. It will not even be close.
Mr. kinabalu, I think it'd take some doing to lose to Trump next time.
Not only did he narrowly win a number of states, now he has a record to defend. Plus, we aren't at the height of an anti-Establishment wave as we were last time. And the Democrat nominee is unlikely to make Clinton's mistake of wasting resources on safe states and neglecting battlegrounds.
And that's why the UK's net international investment position has been in decline throughout that period - RCS will give you the details.
This casual complacency that the UK can continually consume more wealth than it creates is ridiculous.
Have you read my comments? I pointed out that the UK's net International investment position has increased over the last 6 years and is the same as it was a decade ago, so your statement that the NIIP "has been in decline throughout that period" is simply not correct. The secret to understanding the UK's international transactions is to recognise that it has extremely high gross asset and liability positions, and its foreign assets are riskier and higher return overall. Moreover, some of this return is delivered via capital gains rather than coupons or dividends, and so does not affect the BOP. Hence our consistent current account deficits but stable NIIP. To be honest I would rather the UK's economy was more balanced and we had a smaller trade deficit, but I don't think the current situation is unsustainable - even if it is suboptimal in many ways. One technical point: you cannot have a balance of payments deficit: by construction the balance of payments sums to zero. One final point - we have a floating currency which adjusts to maintain equilibrium. When things happen to affect our ability to earn foreign currency, it adjusts. Hence the move in 2016.
I did read your comment and it directly contradicts what RCS told us in, as an example, this comment yesterday:
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
So sort out the correct paperwork. FFS its not rocket science.
It should have been sorted out by the end of March - but wasn't. Boris "no-deal is 1,000,000 to 1" isn't exactly going to encourage them to get on with it.....
Indeed it should have been and that was a ridiculous comment by Boris. Hence what I said, the day he is made PM the first thing he should do is audit No Deal preparations and plug any deficiencies.
From that PMDFoster thread I actually think there's little reason to worry. If the issue is one of paperwork that can be fixed and if the issue is exports over imports that is less critical. We want exports to go smoothly but all the Project Fear scare stories are for an inability to import as that could be disastrous. But that's not the case.
If No Deal happens then companies will need to deal with their paperwork rapidly. If the "real worry" is No Deal + 21 days then by 3 weeks after No Deal occurs companies really ought to have figured out what paperwork they require and got on top of it.
And by a few months after Brexit we will have moved on.
Heck, I confidently forecast that by December the general public will be more bothered by Christmas and the Festive Season than having had no deal. November may have some bumps but people's real lives will move on.
Is Corbyn supposed to get involved with internal discipline matters or not
'Yes/No' and his 'refusal/insistence' on doing so is a sign he is 'unfit to be leader/unfit to be leader' and should 'stand down/stand down'
He shouldn't intervene in individul cases. Where it's clear that the underlying disciplinary process is not fit for purpose, he should do something about that.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
Surely in terms of "calling it", the only ones that matter are the Tory members? (I'm assuming not all your friends are Tory members, both from common sense and because you mention they include some "normal people").
haha no this is amongst Tory members. The conversation is actually quite funny, not quite AA type enquiry but at some point, someone, sotto voce, will ask "do you have a vote?".
So exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
I haven't canvassed all the members I know who are members, but anecdotally from a very small sample I can say the majority think like me, that he is highly unsuitable and will damage the party and the country.
yep - super small sample but surprisingly uniform. And surely Boris supporters wouldn't be shy. Plus in any case it's that look in their eye when they talk of Boris.
Still, the BBC manages to wheel on the various chairmen of XYZ-shire Conservative Associations who seem as frothing and Boris-supporting as anyone. Just that 99% of the Cons members I have met despise or at least have given up on him.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton by 3m but fluked the electoral college with those wafer thin majorities in the rust belt.
If he faces a 'super Clinton' - female, mixed race, competent AND charismatic - I cannot see him winning. I will go further. It will not even be close.
President Harris. Take it to the bank.
I agree with one thing there it won't be close but not the result you would want. Clinton 2 is going to be less of a success than the original, who lost even without a successful economy behind the opponent.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
Surely in terms of "calling it", the only ones that matter are the Tory members? (I'm assuming not all your friends are Tory members, both from common sense and because you mention they include some "normal people").
haha no this is amongst Tory members. The conversation is actually quite funny, not quite AA type enquiry but at some point, someone, sotto voce, will ask "do you have a vote?".
So exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
I haven't canvassed all the members I know who are members, but anecdotally from a very small sample I can say the majority think like me, that he is highly unsuitable and will damage the party and the country.
Not saying you're not telling the truth, but this would mean more coming from someone like Mr Herdson who isn't a die-hard Remainer.
One thought on the pmdfoster thread . . . all the issues appear to be specific to exporting. If there's an inconvenience to exporters they can and will have to deal with it and sort their paperwork out.
The idea that the supermarket shelves will run dry is unlikely if the Calais are waving through European exporters.
So the lorry arrives in the UK and delivers its goods. It then joins the queue at Dartford for Dover to collect the next load..
it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days.
The story debunked by the factcheck piece I linked???
No you demonstrate the unreliability of so called fact check. Harris should have said she was in the second class of kids that were bussed to different schools to make racial % quota's which is true. Berkeley school district integrated in the early 60's but started bussing kids to schools outside the normal school lines to make higher % of each race at each of their schools. Fact check will say she told the truth even though the schools were already integrated. Berkeley was forced to meet racial quota's in 1968, not that the schools were totally segregated in 1968 like she implied.
This sounds so obtuse. It's like you are trying to fit a smear piece from Fringe site Gateway Pundit to the facts.
No the timeline clearly says she was lying and it isn't just one fringe site that has picked up on this. Biden will use this if he needs to the facts yet again are not the real facts.
Was Kamala bussed to scholl. Yes. Was Biden working with segregationists who opposed bussing. Yes.
Fabulous news! Kamala is my bet and it's a big one. I got 8/1 and was starting to hate it as she drifted to double that - but now she strikes and she makes it count. All of my confidence has returned. Only wish I had topped up yesterday at the 16s. Hard to see her not getting the nomination now and she will massacre the rancid old incumbent in the general. It's going to be President Harris. What an improvement that will be. Morning has broken in America. The torch has passed. Here comes the sun. We are the World, we are the ...
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been to lay 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' at around the 3.5 mark on Betfair on the grounds that 3.5 is absurdly short for something which is quite simply not happening. The price ought to be much much bigger and my opinion on this has now been validated by no less a figure than the man who is about to be our Prime Minister. According to Boris Johnson the odds of a No Deal should realistically be ONE MILLION to one. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
Not to be confused with the Biden who flopped in his last two primary campaigns?
Against much higher quality fields, that he even feels the need to run at his age says an awful lot. Biden has the big advantage in this race as he is best known so he has a head start.
That is why Biden has led the polls. He was VP for eight years. Most of the others aren't even household names in their own households. When the polls are dominated for months by Biden and Sanders, it is about name recognition.
But as the debates and campaign move on, and the field thins a bit, that advantage will evaporate. So far it is all fluff: name recognition and some media attention for people like Beto and Mayor Pete who speak well in controlled, friendly environments.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
Surely in terms of "calling it", the only ones that matter are the Tory members? (I'm assuming not all your friends are Tory members, both from common sense and because you mention they include some "normal people").
haha no this is amongst Tory members. The conversation is actually quite funny, not quite AA type enquiry but at some point, someone, sotto voce, will ask "do you have a vote?".
So exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
I haven't canvassed all the members I know who are members, but anecdotally from a very small sample I can say the majority think like me, that he is highly unsuitable and will damage the party and the country.
Not saying you're not telling the truth, but this would mean more coming from someone like Mr Herdson who isn't a die-hard Remainer.
You are the very (self-identified) definition of a Little Englander plus not a Party member so, with all due respect an' all, we (I dare to speak for @Nigel_Foremain here) don't give a flying fuck what it means to you.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
I haven't canvassed all the members I know who are members, but anecdotally from a very small sample I can say the majority think like me, that he is highly unsuitable and will damage the party and the country.
Not saying you're not telling the truth, but this would mean more coming from someone like Mr Herdson who isn't a die-hard Remainer.
It is a very small sample, and is of, shall I say, the more educated type of member who have been members for a very long time, so probably not representative . My dislike of Boris Johnson isn't just his lies relating to Brexit> it is because he is fundamentally unsuited and unqualified for the job. The only real job he has done was Mayor of London where he really achieved nothing remarkable, and where there are numerous stories of idiocy and incompetence. Hunt is far from perfect in my view, but he has a good track record in running things and is clearly not a buffoon.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the UK hauliers - 40% have (one of) their ducks in a row - and Calais (not unreasonably) has said to the ferry operators "don't board anyone without the correct paperwork" - so those without the correct paperwork will end up queuing in Kent while its sorted out.....It's hardly the EU's fault if the UK has not prepared properly.....
So sort out the correct paperwork. FFS its not rocket science.
From when the new PM is elected there will be 3 months and 1 week until Halloween. No reason paperwork can't be resolved in that time.
And software bought (not written it will need ready made) and users trained to use it and manually transfer data from system 1 to system 2 (integrations couldn't be created in time).
For most transport companies Brexit will be a transformation event.
Indeed. But, as patriots have pointed out, the country will survive.
Oh, companies may crash and burn. But that won't destroy us. Some people will lose their jobs. And that's regrettable, of course, but not everyone will be affected. There may well be disruption in several areas - possibly severe disruption in some areas. But it won't kill us - think of how many died in World War 2. We won't have those mass deaths, so it'll be okay.
We have to believe in Britain and be positive. Oh, maybe we'll have less fresh fruit and vegetables for a while. Our kids will survive - they may even be happier! (Possibly a little less healthy for a while, but never mind).
Supply chain disruption and economic adjustment may make things a bit more expensive while we have less money anyway, but I'm sure no-one will mind that too much. Whoever got a bit annoyed at a little austerity?
And, yes, our children may have reduced prospects for a generation or so - but it's not like aerial bombing of our main cities, the deaths of millions, rationing for a decade, and state control of the economy to a degree that would reduce Corbyn to gasping awe, so it's not that bad, really.
Now I'll let you and Robert discuss the technicalities and the numbers as I have to do some work.
In 2008 we had a positive NIIP which was largely a currency effect (weaker GBP increased the GBP value of our mostly foreign currency assets). Other than that spike, our NIIP has been negative since 2004, but it has been on an improving trend since 2012, partly reflecting the impact of a weaker GBP post 2016 and partly thanks to better performance of the EU economy, where many of our foreign assets earn their returns. These numbers are very uncertain and revision prone because the NIIP is the relatively small difference between two big numbers. But there is no evidence it is getting worse. The key thing is watch GBP - if we were not paying our way, it would be going down.
With perfect timing this will be backed up this evening from the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury by Stormzy. The same message - Labour must adopt Ref/Remain - but rapped.
The pivot is coming. Battle lines being drawn.
Leave with Boris or Remain with Jeremy? I can't call it.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
If the EU ports are prepared theres no excuse why we can't or shouldn't be.
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Its not so much the Ports its the U new PM is elected there will be 3 months and 1 week until Halloween. No reason paperwork can't be resolved in that time.
And software bought (not written it will need ready made) and users trained to use it and manually transfer data from system 1 to system 2 (integrations couldn't be created in time).
For most transport companies Brexit will be a transformation event.
Indeed. But, as patriots have pointed out, the country will survive.
Oh, companies may crash and burn. But that won't destroy us. Some people will lose their jobs. And that's regrettable, of course, but not everyone will be affected. There may well be disruption in several areas - possibly severe disruption in some areas. But it won't kill us - think of how many died in World War 2. We won't have those mass deaths, so it'll be okay.
We have to believe in Britain and be positive. Oh, maybe we'll have less fresh fruit and vegetables for a while. Our kids will survive - they may even be happier! (Possibly a little less healthy for a while, but never mind).
Supply chain disruption and economic adjustment may make things a bit more expensive while we have less money anyway, but I'm sure no-one will mind that too much. Whoever got a bit annoyed at a little austerity?
And, yes, our children may have reduced prospects for a generation or so - but it's not like aerial bombing of our main cities, the deaths of millions, rationing for a decade, and state control of the economy to a degree that would reduce Corbyn to gasping awe, so it's not that bad, really.
(Did I do that right?)
And for what benefit to anyone pray? Are these the same "patriots" who seem to be happy to support the foreign policy agenda of a hostile foreign power? Maybe they don't see Russia as such? I am sure Farage and banks don't.
With perfect timing this will be backed up this evening from the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury by Stormzy. The same message - Labour must adopt Ref/Remain - but rapped.
The pivot is coming. Battle lines being drawn.
Leave with Boris or Remain with Jeremy? I can't call it.
It's not quite Remain with Jeremy - it's another (definitive) referendum with Labour / Jeremy. To ensure he doesn't upset Northern MP's too much...
Just curious, as the nun said to the hockey team, but what's your take on Remain type MPs who voted against the deal?
The biggest reason we're at an impasse is that a majority of MPs appears to be against every single option.
Mr. kinabalu, depends a lot on how other Remain parties, especially the Lib Dems fare and if there's going to be official candidates for a Remain/Second Referendum alliance.
Fabulous news! Kamala is my bet and it's a big one. I got 8/1 and was starting to hate it as she drifted to double that - but now she strikes and she makes it count. All of my confidence has returned. Only wish I had topped up yesterday at the 16s. Hard to see her not getting the nomination now and she will massacre the rancid old incumbent in the general. It's going to be President Harris. What an improvement that will be. Morning has broken in America. The torch has passed. Here comes the sun. We are the World, we are the ...
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been e. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
You may as well have thrown your money down the nearest drain, Harris isn't winning the Dem nomination, aligned herself too close to Clinton, with so many ex Clinton staffers now working for her. 100% certain if Harris was the opponent Trump would win in 2020, a gift the Dem's won't give. Biden and Warren will be the last 2 standing, Biden is a tough individual he will hit back hard.
Not to be confused with the Biden who flopped in his last two primary campaigns?
Against much higher quality fields, that he even feels the need to run at his age says an awful lot. Biden has the big advantage in this race as he is best known so he has a head start.
That is why Biden has led the polls. He was VP for eight years. Most of the others aren't even household names in their own households. When the polls are dominated for months by Biden and Sanders, it is about name recognition.
But as the debates and campaign move on, and the field thins a bit, that advantage will evaporate. So far it is all fluff: name recognition and some media attention for people like Beto and Mayor Pete who speak well in controlled, friendly environments.
Quite - and that is why the debates matter. Harris is already in the small pack polling more than 2% - that it’s such a low hurdle indicates how hard it is going to be to break from the field - and getting an early boost may well make the difference between staying in the race and crashing out. O’Rourke, for instance, is now on borrowed time despite his acknowledged campaigning skills and committed supporters. Unlike many, he has the funds to stay in the race for many months, but I suspect it might look increasingly pointless.
Gateway Pundit, of course, published a Podesta e-mail loudly proclaiming it showed Clinton held deeply racist views.
It was a spam newsletter that Podesta received from some racist in the Netherlands. Clinton wasn't even a recipient never mind sent it.
Also that site was pretty spot on with the Mueller report, timeline, conclusions and what will come next, which is likely to be very important for the 2020 election. That is my reason for betting on Warren to beat Biden for the Dem nomination.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
You mean there's hope?
Like the South African beggar said to me when I gave him £2
With perfect timing this will be backed up this evening from the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury by Stormzy. The same message - Labour must adopt Ref/Remain - but rapped.
The pivot is coming. Battle lines being drawn.
Leave with Boris or Remain with Jeremy? I can't call it.
It's not quite Remain with Jeremy - it's another (definitive) referendum with Labour / Jeremy. To ensure he doesn't upset Northern MP's too much...
Hmm. Not convinced myself. Jezza is playing for time under orders from Seamus and Len. Labour will not come out for 2nd vote before conference imho.
Johnson is very much despised in the rest of the EU, certainly here in Germany. It will not help the UK and the EU27 negotiate a deal having him as PM.
With perfect timing this will be backed up this evening from the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury by Stormzy. The same message - Labour must adopt Ref/Remain - but rapped.
The pivot is coming. Battle lines being drawn.
Leave with Boris or Remain with Jeremy? I can't call it.
Stormzy? Not sure he givesa damn about Brexit and I'm not sure a rapper aimed at teenage girls has any influence. The 2nd referendum ship long since sailed IMO hence the huge odds. It's mad that people keep banging the same tired drum.
Mr. kinabalu, I think it'd take some doing to lose to Trump next time.
Not only did he narrowly win a number of states, now he has a record to defend. Plus, we aren't at the height of an anti-Establishment wave as we were last time. And the Democrat nominee is unlikely to make Clinton's mistake of wasting resources on safe states and neglecting battlegrounds.
Yes, that's my take.The stars aligned for Trump last time in a quite freakish way.
I would be just a bit more relaxed, however, if the US economy would play ball and take a dive.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
Surely in terms of "calling it", the only ones that matter are the Tory members? (I'm assuming not all your friends are Tory members, both from common sense and because you mention they include some "normal people").
haha no this is amongst Tory members. The conversation is actually quite funny, not quite AA type enquiry but at some point, someone, sotto voce, will ask "do you have a vote?".
So exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
I haven't canvassed all the members I know who are members, but anecdotally from a very small sample I can say the majority think like me, that he is highly unsuitable and will damage the party and the country.
yep - super small sample but surprisingly uniform. And surely Boris supporters wouldn't be shy. Plus in any case it's that look in their eye when they talk of Boris.
Still, the BBC manages to wheel on the various chairmen of XYZ-shire Conservative Associations who seem as frothing and Boris-supporting as anyone. Just that 99% of the Cons members I have met despise or at least have given up on him.
Given your taste in wine I'm guessing you're more Cotswold than Canvey?
I only know a few Tories nowadays but they are sadly Borisinis. I served with lots on my old council and they were all Boris fans back then.
One thought on the pmdfoster thread . . . all the issues appear to be specific to exporting. If there's an inconvenience to exporters they can and will have to deal with it and sort their paperwork out.
The idea that the supermarket shelves will run dry is unlikely if the Calais are waving through European exporters.
So the lorry arrives in the UK and delivers its goods. It then joins the queue at Dartford for Dover to collect the next load..
Which will be an inconvenience but it won't have on board any fresh stock heading to our Supermarkets. It may take slightly longer to get back to the continent and the hauliers there can figure out how best to deal with that but once fresh stock departs to come here it will get here fine.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
Surely in terms of "calling it", the only ones that matter are the Tory members? (I'm assuming not all your friends are Tory members, both from common sense and because you mention they include some "normal people").
haha no this is amongst Tory members. The conversation is actually quite funny, not quite AA type enquiry but at some point, someone, sotto voce, will ask "do you have a vote?".
So exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
I haven't canvassed all the members I know who are members, but anecdotally from a very small sample I can say the majority think like me, that he is highly unsuitable and will damage the party and the country.
yep - super small sample but surprisingly uniform. And surely Boris supporters wouldn't be shy. Plus in any case it's that look in their eye when they talk of Boris.
Still, the BBC manages to wheel on the various chairmen of XYZ-shire Conservative Associations who seem as frothing and Boris-supporting as anyone. Just that 99% of the Cons members I have met despise or at least have given up on him.
This is amongst people you know?
If you speak to them the way you speak here about the "lunacy" of No Deal etc then yes they might be shy.
If I'm honest my initial thought is that Kamala Harris is less likely to beat Trump. Yes it was powerful but it was also straightforward moralism that might put off 'moderate' voters.
The obvious temptation is to fight fire with fire. But maybe that's what Trump wants?
I agree with one thing there it won't be close but not the result you would want. Clinton 2 is going to be less of a success than the original, who lost even without a successful economy behind the opponent.
TBF, 'super Clinton' not 'Clinton 2' is how I'm putting it.
But, OK, in return I will agree with you on one thing. The economy. That is a worry. It's pretty much my only worry, but it's a big one. A downturn would be very handy.
If I'm honest my initial thought is that Kamala Harris is less likely to beat Trump. Yes it was powerful but it was also straightforward moralism that might put off 'moderate' voters.
The obvious temptation is to fight fire with fire. But maybe that's what Trump wants?
I think Harris a rather subtler politician than one can usefully conclude from a single debate.
Not to be confused with the Biden who flopped in his last two primary campaigns?
Against much higher quality fields, that he even feels the need to run at his age says an awful lot. Biden has the big advantage in this race as he is best known so he has a head start.
That is why Biden has led the polls. He was VP for eight years. Most of the others aren't even household names in their own households. When the polls are dominated for months by Biden and Sanders, it is about name recognition.
But as the debates and campaign move on, and the field thins a bit, that advantage will evaporate. So far it is all fluff: name recognition and some media attention for people like Beto and Mayor Pete who speak well in controlled, friendly environments.
That is very true but when this happens there are only a small number who have a chance to catch up on Biden. The fact the media have pulled towards the lightweight's you mention demonstrate the paucity of quality.
It will only be Sanders/Warren and Harris who has the power of Clinton's machine behind her but has Clinton's exact same personal weakness, not likeable, suspect outside controlled media, no humour. So Biden only really has Harris to beat to get to the last 2, so really a shoe in to get there.
Given that she doesn't know what the EHRC does or why it is investigating Labour, she should really keep her ill-informed mouth shut.
She is used by Corbyn as someone to have sat next to him during PMQs. That is not because of her skills, experience, intellect or political intelligence.
It's not quite Remain with Jeremy - it's another (definitive) referendum with Labour / Jeremy. To ensure he doesn't upset Northern MP's too much...
Yes, there'll be some careful language. But so long as the commitment to a Referendum with Remain as an option is clear and unambiguous I think this will be sufficient to harness enough of the Remainer vote to make the election winnable for Labour.
That's if we get the election, of course, which I doubt. I think Johnson is likely to bottle it. I see him taking an extension and trying to get the WA through in 2020.
If you speak to them the way you speak here about the "lunacy" of No Deal etc then yes they might be shy.
LOL
We don't really discuss it at all. Last night I met a friend who I had a great discussion with pre-Ref (he is a Leaver). I didn't dare ask what he thought about it all now but I guess he would be in the @DavidL@rcs1000 camp. But it's not something we discuss, frankly.
We did get round to Boris, however, and hence my first post.
There's another headline about proroguing parliament. Apparently Boris has refused to deny he would do it.
Can someone please point out that a Prime minister cannot prorogue parliament but merely request to the Queen that she do so? I'm afraid it is part of our constitutional problem that so much power is effectively invested in the PM because the Monarch never goes against their wishes. However conservatives are supposed to care for constitutional niceties. Boris as we know wants to be world king. Perhaps HMQ ought to look out?
Given your taste in wine I'm guessing you're more Cotswold than Canvey?
I only know a few Tories nowadays but they are sadly Borisinis. I served with lots on my old council and they were all Boris fans back then.
I think this was my point. Previous pro-Borisites (and I campaigned extensively for him for his London Mayor attempts) have become sick of him. Or the controversy around him. But mainly him.
It's not quite Remain with Jeremy - it's another (definitive) referendum with Labour / Jeremy. To ensure he doesn't upset Northern MP's too much...
Yes, there'll be some careful language. But so long as the commitment to a Referendum with Remain as an option is clear and unambiguous I think this will be sufficient to harness enough of the Remainer vote to make the election winnable for Labour.
That's if we get the election, of course, which I doubt. I think Johnson is likely to bottle it. I see him taking an extension and trying to get the WA through in 2020.
I could easily see Boris doing that. Risking everything in a GE will require the sort of fortitude he has never thus far demonstrated. Even a big polling lead won't soothe his fears as Corbo is a campaigning machine and Boris knows it.
They delay could be couched as unavoidable and necessary in order to achieve Proper British Brexit and everything is May's fault anyway.
There's another headline about proroguing parliament. Apparently Boris has refused to deny he would do it.
Can someone please point out that a Prime minister cannot prorogue parliament but merely request to the Queen that she do so? I'm afraid it is part of our constitutional problem that so much power is effectively invested in the PM because the Monarch never goes against their wishes. However conservatives are supposed to care for constitutional niceties. Boris as we know wants to be world king. Perhaps HMQ ought to look out?
I was against proroguing Parliament until Grieve came up with his latest wheeze to shutdown the government if he doesn't get his way. Now it seems like a good idea.
Comments
The new PM should make preparing the ports etc their number one priority while holding an olive branch out for a backstop less WDA or GATT24 agreement IF the EU agrees to either.
Biden: "...and my time's up - I'm sorry."
Yep.
The EU may put up barriers but others will fill the void.
Facts get in the way of Brexit
Therefore facts are FAKE NEWS....
With such extreme views, the mystery is how you came to vote Remain.
Which is why the UK has an overall trade deficit and has done so for the last 22 consecutive years.
Likewise the UK has an even larger balance of payments deficit.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
And that's why the UK's net international investment position has been in decline throughout that period - RCS will give you the details.
This casual complacency that the UK can continually consume more wealth than it creates is ridiculous.
And in further great betting news, people will be aware that my nap in recent times has been to lay 'No Deal Brexit in 2019' at around the 3.5 mark on Betfair on the grounds that 3.5 is absurdly short for something which is quite simply not happening. The price ought to be much much bigger and my opinion on this has now been validated by no less a figure than the man who is about to be our Prime Minister. According to Boris Johnson the odds of a No Deal should realistically be ONE MILLION to one. How about that? So you can lay at 3.5 something that should be 1,000,001. Fill your boots if you have any sense whatsoever.
Political groups formed
European People's Party: 182 MEPs. Chair: Manfred Weber (Germany)
Socialists and Democrats: 154 MEPs. Chair: Iratxe García (Spain)
Renew Europe (ex ALDE) 108 MEPs. Chair: Dacian Cioloș (Romania)
Greens/European Free Alliance: 75 MEPs. Co-chairs: Ska Keller (Germany) and Philippe Lamberts (Belgium)
Identity and Democracy: 73 MEPs. Chair: Marco Zanni (Italy)
European Conservatives and Democrats: 62 MEPs. Co-chairs: Ryszard Legutko (Poland) and Raffaelle Fitto (Italy)
European United Left-Nordic Green Left: 41 MEPs. Interim co-chairs: João Ferreira (Portugal), Marisa Matias (Portugal), Martin Schirdewan (Germany) and Nikolaj Villumsen (Denmark)
Not attached: 56 MEPs
They are: 1 Germany's Die Partei, 2 Greek Communists, 2 Golden Dawn, 2 Junts per Catalunya, 2 from Croatia (ŽIVI ZID and Mislav Kolakušić), 1 Hungary's Jobbik, 14 Italy's 5 Stars, 2 Slovakia's ĽSNS, 29 Brexit Party, 1 DUP
That is the impression I get anyway, happy to be corrected.
Uk haulage firms may lose out to EU firms.
EU cold chain suppliers may lose out to global or Uk suppliers.
Some Uk ports may have to increase capacity - some may wither.
Interesting times ahead.
From when the new PM is elected there will be 3 months and 1 week until Halloween. No reason paperwork can't be resolved in that time.
What does not help though is selling everything off, from trains to Legoland, to foreign investors, because, all other things being equal, it means their profits flow out of the country.
Perhaps we may end up eating more British produce - can only be a good thing.
For most transport companies Brexit will be a transformation event.
https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1016502769493168128
Personally I think secondary school is much more important in this regard, and from Wiki it looks like Kamala did that in Canada.
That's not to say that reducing racial segregation at primary schools isn't necessarily a good thing to do.
The secret to understanding the UK's international transactions is to recognise that it has extremely high gross asset and liability positions, and its foreign assets are riskier and higher return overall. Moreover, some of this return is delivered via capital gains rather than coupons or dividends, and so does not affect the BOP. Hence our consistent current account deficits but stable NIIP.
To be honest I would rather the UK's economy was more balanced and we had a smaller trade deficit, but I don't think the current situation is unsustainable - even if it is suboptimal in many ways.
One technical point: you cannot have a balance of payments deficit: by construction the balance of payments sums to zero.
One final point - we have a floating currency which adjusts to maintain equilibrium. When things happen to affect our ability to earn foreign currency, it adjusts. Hence the move in 2016.
The idea that the supermarket shelves will run dry is unlikely if the Calais are waving through European exporters.
PS:the public will of course
I mean, the whole point of the "bussing in" concept is that the schools aren't officially segregated, but because different racial groups live in different areas they effectively are, so if you want to avoid that you have to put some of the kids on buses and get them to schools in areas where they don't live. [*]
[*] Or you could repeal the town planning laws that have the practical effect of keeping black families out of white areas, but that will upset the nimbies.
If he faces a 'super Clinton' - female, mixed race, competent AND charismatic - I cannot see him winning. I will go further. It will not even be close.
President Harris. Take it to the bank.
Not only did he narrowly win a number of states, now he has a record to defend. Plus, we aren't at the height of an anti-Establishment wave as we were last time. And the Democrat nominee is unlikely to make Clinton's mistake of wasting resources on safe states and neglecting battlegrounds.
From that PMDFoster thread I actually think there's little reason to worry. If the issue is one of paperwork that can be fixed and if the issue is exports over imports that is less critical. We want exports to go smoothly but all the Project Fear scare stories are for an inability to import as that could be disastrous. But that's not the case.
If No Deal happens then companies will need to deal with their paperwork rapidly. If the "real worry" is No Deal + 21 days then by 3 weeks after No Deal occurs companies really ought to have figured out what paperwork they require and got on top of it.
And by a few months after Brexit we will have moved on.
Heck, I confidently forecast that by December the general public will be more bothered by Christmas and the Festive Season than having had no deal. November may have some bumps but people's real lives will move on.
Still, the BBC manages to wheel on the various chairmen of XYZ-shire Conservative Associations who seem as frothing and Boris-supporting as anyone. Just that 99% of the Cons members I have met despise or at least have given up on him.
Was Biden working with segregationists who opposed bussing. Yes.
What is Biden going to hit back with?
But as the debates and campaign move on, and the field thins a bit, that advantage will evaporate. So far it is all fluff: name recognition and some media attention for people like Beto and Mayor Pete who speak well in controlled, friendly environments.
But, as patriots have pointed out, the country will survive.
Oh, companies may crash and burn. But that won't destroy us.
Some people will lose their jobs. And that's regrettable, of course, but not everyone will be affected.
There may well be disruption in several areas - possibly severe disruption in some areas. But it won't kill us - think of how many died in World War 2. We won't have those mass deaths, so it'll be okay.
We have to believe in Britain and be positive. Oh, maybe we'll have less fresh fruit and vegetables for a while. Our kids will survive - they may even be happier! (Possibly a little less healthy for a while, but never mind).
Supply chain disruption and economic adjustment may make things a bit more expensive while we have less money anyway, but I'm sure no-one will mind that too much. Whoever got a bit annoyed at a little austerity?
And, yes, our children may have reduced prospects for a generation or so - but it's not like aerial bombing of our main cities, the deaths of millions, rationing for a decade, and state control of the economy to a degree that would reduce Corbyn to gasping awe, so it's not that bad, really.
(Did I do that right?)
It was a spam newsletter that Podesta received from some racist in the Netherlands. Clinton wasn't even a recipient never mind sent it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/27/soft-brexit-dead-labour-peoples-vote-referendum-remain
With perfect timing this will be backed up this evening from the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury by Stormzy. The same message - Labour must adopt Ref/Remain - but rapped.
The pivot is coming. Battle lines being drawn.
Leave with Boris or Remain with Jeremy? I can't call it.
Just curious, as the nun said to the hockey team, but what's your take on Remain type MPs who voted against the deal?
The biggest reason we're at an impasse is that a majority of MPs appears to be against every single option.
Mr. kinabalu, depends a lot on how other Remain parties, especially the Lib Dems fare and if there's going to be official candidates for a Remain/Second Referendum alliance.
Harris is already in the small pack polling more than 2% - that it’s such a low hurdle indicates how hard it is going to be to break from the field - and getting an early boost may well make the difference between staying in the race and crashing out.
O’Rourke, for instance, is now on borrowed time despite his acknowledged campaigning skills and committed supporters. Unlike many, he has the funds to stay in the race for many months, but I suspect it might look increasingly pointless.
Like the South African beggar said to me when I gave him £2
You're Jesus Man!
I would be just a bit more relaxed, however, if the US economy would play ball and take a dive.
I only know a few Tories nowadays but they are sadly Borisinis. I served with lots on my old council and they were all Boris fans back then.
Labours politicking should be more shocking than it appears to be swalllowed
If you speak to them the way you speak here about the "lunacy" of No Deal etc then yes they might be shy.
The obvious temptation is to fight fire with fire. But maybe that's what Trump wants?
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1144529592264396801
But, OK, in return I will agree with you on one thing. The economy. That is a worry. It's pretty much my only worry, but it's a big one. A downturn would be very handy.
Not to be confused with the Biden who flopped in his last two primary campaigns?
Against much higher quality fields, that he even feels the need to run at his age says an awful lot. Biden has the big advantage in this race as he is best known so he has a head start.
That is why Biden has led the polls. He was VP for eight years. Most of the others aren't even household names in their own households. When the polls are dominated for months by Biden and Sanders, it is about name recognition.
But as the debates and campaign move on, and the field thins a bit, that advantage will evaporate. So far it is all fluff: name recognition and some media attention for people like Beto and Mayor Pete who speak well in controlled, friendly environments.
That is very true but when this happens there are only a small number who have a chance to catch up on Biden. The fact the media have pulled towards the lightweight's you mention demonstrate the paucity of quality.
It will only be Sanders/Warren and Harris who has the power of Clinton's machine behind her but has Clinton's exact same personal weakness, not likeable, suspect outside controlled media, no humour. So Biden only really has Harris to beat to get to the last 2, so really a shoe in to get there.
She is used by Corbyn as someone to have sat next to him during PMQs. That is not because of her skills, experience, intellect or political intelligence.
That's if we get the election, of course, which I doubt. I think Johnson is likely to bottle it. I see him taking an extension and trying to get the WA through in 2020.
We don't really discuss it at all. Last night I met a friend who I had a great discussion with pre-Ref (he is a Leaver). I didn't dare ask what he thought about it all now but I guess he would be in the @DavidL @rcs1000 camp. But it's not something we discuss, frankly.
We did get round to Boris, however, and hence my first post.
I've got a feeling they're saving the REALLY heavy guns till they see the whites of Bori's eyes in a couple of weeks time.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7143283/Is-Carrie-Symonds-descended-Downing-Street.html
Can someone please point out that a Prime minister cannot prorogue parliament but merely request to the Queen that she do so? I'm afraid it is part of our constitutional problem that so much power is effectively invested in the PM because the Monarch never goes against their wishes. However conservatives are supposed to care for constitutional niceties. Boris as we know wants to be world king. Perhaps HMQ ought to look out?
They delay could be couched as unavoidable and necessary in order to achieve Proper British Brexit and everything is May's fault anyway.