Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
The rest of the world will look aghast and say,
"At least its not Trump, Putin, Erdogan......."
Low bar, admittedly....but since the widely predicted "collapse" of British soft power since the Brexit vote....its held remarkably steady..."There's a lot of ruin in a nation..."
I'm considering a comparable hedge by putting some on Boris at 4 for 50-60% of the vote and 2.5 for 60-70% (I'm considerable greener on Hunt than Boris and am thinking of trying to get a more balanced result).
There's a non trivial chance he'll be on 70-80% as per the Yougov polling. Currently 50-80% is a 99.76% chance on the back side for Betfair.
Just back Boris in the Tory leader market at 1.15 till your greens are levelled up.
1.15 makes for very expensive hedging
He's a country mile ahead with the membership and going to win.
1.15 is the 1.03 real chance + the risk of it emerging that he's a murderer or something.
Have we ever seen Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson in the same room together?
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Not post-Brexit.
You're assuming the EU will offer UK citizens less generous access than US, Australian, Mexican or Argentinian citizens?
Why?
They've said they will.
but to get a better one we’ll need to offer better for EU citizens, too.
We already have:
EU citizens arriving in the UK who wish to stay longer than 3 months and apply for European Temporary Leave to Remain will be subject to identity, criminality and security checks before being granted permission to stay for three years.
That’s a transitional arrangement, not a permanent one. The government has made clear there will be no special treatment for EU citizens after 2021. It can, of course, change its mind.
If Biden underperformed last night then the biggest winner from that is President Trump as Biden is the candidate his team most fears and who has the broadest appeal in the swing states.
Those who are seen to have done best from the debates are Warren, Harris and Buttigieg and that means Warren has done best of all as she is competing with Sanders to be the top tier left liberal candidate while Harris, Buttigieg and Biden are all competing to be the top tier centrist candidate
I thought about laying Harris at 7 before the debate, I also considered levelling my books up.
I didn't do either so that's a wash. Anyway I'll repeat a candidate polling 7% who has Bernie, Warren and Biden above her (With Biden near 30 odd) should not be the 7-2 favourite at this point no matter how much of a twitter storm she's creating. If twitter was the sole guide, Bernie would have won the 2016 Democrat primary 80-20 or something like that.
The movement in the odds is probably overdone for now, but there is a bit more to it than that. Polling has consistently shown her as one of the most popular Democrats, and a large majority of the selectorate have yet to make up their minds. And my impression (FWIW) is that she is cautious rather than dull; last night indicated she's prepared to take risks. If Biden stops looking inevitable, then she has a real shot.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Totally agree. But neither Johnson nor his electorate give a damn about that. The latter is largely xenophobic and Johnson is very happy to pander to their prejudices. He’s been doing it his entire career.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Not post-Brexit.
You're assuming the EU will offer UK citizens less generous access than US, Australian, Mexican or Argentinian citizens?
Why?
They've said they will.
but to get a better one we’ll need to offer better for EU citizens, too.
We already have:
EU citizens arriving in the UK who wish to stay longer than 3 months and apply for European Temporary Leave to Remain will be subject to identity, criminality and security checks before being granted permission to stay for three years.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
The rest of the world can get over it.
I’m sure they will. It’s a shame that Boris is turning himself into a human English stereotype - seeming to confirm everything others think about us that’s false but nasty. As a patriot I find that regrettable.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.
Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.
No bad thing. In the last 12 months there's been a massive surge in residency permits issued as people have normalised their positions - a huge boost for private health insurers too as this is needed for under 65s now. However, Spain is taking a very positive and moderate approach to all these matters.
Yep, Sanchez is very good on this. But his hands are tied with regard to non-residents - and future would-be residents. The EU has agreed a pan-EU strategy on FoM for UK citizens post-Brexit, so Spain cannot act unilaterally.
Laying the favo(u)rite generally makes sense early on in crowded races.
Harris is now the favourite.
No, Warren
@HYUFD I don't agree with them hence the red next number next to her but as of right now
Harris is 4.2/4.5 Biden 4.7/5.0 Warren 6/6.2
She is the favourite.
Well those odds are absurd, given Warren and Sanders are the only candidates over 10% other than Biden in the national Democratic primary polls and Harris is not even over 10% and Harris is nowhere in Iowa and New Hampshire polls neither.
Get on Warren fast, if she has got the left liberal vote after last night's debate when she promised universal public healthcare amongst other things she will be Biden's biggest rival, not Harris who will have damaged Biden a bit with out improving her own vote much other than maybe with the black vote in South Carolina
Laying the favo(u)rite generally makes sense early on in crowded races.
Harris is now the favourite.
No, Warren
@HYUFD I don't agree with them hence the red next number next to her but as of right now
Harris is 4.2/4.5 Biden 4.7/5.0 Warren 6/6.2
She is the favourite.
Well those odds are absurd, given Warren and Sanders are the only candidates over 10% other than Biden in the national Democratic primary polls and Harris is not even over 10% and Harris is nowhere in Iowa and New Hampshire neither.
Get on Warren fast, if she has got the left liberal vote after last night's debate when she promised universal public healthcare amongst other things she will be Biden's biggest rival, not Harris who will have damaged Biden a bit with out improving her own vote much other than maybe with the black vote in South Carolina
The question is whether Biden’s campaign can survive the loss of inevitability. He could fade away leaving a Warren v Harris final two.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
The rest of the world can get over it.
I’m sure they will. It’s a shame that Boris is turning himself into a human English stereotype - seeming to confirm everything others think about us that’s false but nasty. As a patriot I find that regrettable.
Indeed - but xenophobes will xenophobe. Ignorance is bliss, as someone once said. What makes Johnson so despicable, though, is he is not ignorant. He knows exactly what he’s doing.
I'm considering a comparable hedge by putting some on Boris at 4 for 50-60% of the vote and 2.5 for 60-70% (I'm considerable greener on Hunt than Boris and am thinking of trying to get a more balanced result).
I think Mr Brisk is a returner rather than a newbie , nice name mind you
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
The rest of the world will look aghast and say,
"At least its not Trump, Putin, Erdogan......."
Low bar, admittedly....but since the widely predicted "collapse" of British soft power since the Brexit vote....its held remarkably steady..."There's a lot of ruin in a nation..."
LOL, "Soft Power" , if you mean being ignored and ridiculed I might agree, soft in the head would be better description.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.
Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.
No bad thing. In the last 12 months there's been a massive surge in residency permits issued as people have normalised their positions - a huge boost for private health insurers too as this is needed for under 65s now. However, Spain is taking a very positive and moderate approach to all these matters.
Yep, Sanchez is very good on this. But his hands are tied with regard to non-residents - and future would-be residents. The EU has agreed a pan-EU strategy on FoM for UK citizens post-Brexit, so Spain cannot act unilaterally.
I thought nothing was agreed until....... Look there are still plenty of Brits moving to Spain happy to comply with the arrangements required. There is little sign of that changing. It may become a little more cumbersome and may help root out those whose means would leave them a burden on the Spanish system. We also still do not know what the final arrangements will be post-Brexit. I'd just gently say that the constant doom-mongering about the end of days , etc has long since only served to harden attitudes and really doesn't help the debate at all.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
The rest of the world can get over it.
I cannot stand Boris but nations elect leaders others dislike or mock all the time. It doesnt feel great but the world is a practical place and they deal with far worse. I wouldn't say no impact but worrying about how it reflects on the nation is way down the list of concerns, people over egg it because of their own embarrassment and want that shared.
Laying the favo(u)rite generally makes sense early on in crowded races.
Harris is now the favourite.
No, Warren
@HYUFD I don't agree with them hence the red next number next to her but as of right now
Harris is 4.2/4.5 Biden 4.7/5.0 Warren 6/6.2
She is the favourite.
Well those odds are absurd, given Warren and Sanders are the only candidates over 10% other than Biden in the national Democratic primary polls and Harris is not even over 10% and Harris is nowhere in Iowa and New Hampshire neither.
Get on Warren fast, if she has got the left liberal vote after last night's debate when she promised universal public healthcare amongst other things she will be Biden's biggest rival, not Harris who will have damaged Biden a bit with out improving her own vote much other than maybe with the black vote in South Carolina
The question is whether Biden’s campaign can survive the loss of inevitability. He could fade away leaving a Warren v Harris final two.
Which would be great for Trump but no I think Biden fades but remain the lead centrist
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
SA will be desperate not to finish the CWC without a win. Their last match is against Australia so there is no chance there. They hammered SL in a series in SA only a few months ago. SL have the pressure of a remote chance of qualifying. It really should be a SA win unless they are so utterly demoralised by their very poor form in this tournament. I'd make them slight favourites.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.
Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.
No bad thing. In the last 12 months there's been a massive surge in residency permits issued as people have normalised their positions - a huge boost for private health insurers too as this is needed for under 65s now. However, Spain is taking a very positive and moderate approach to all these matters.
The EU has agreed a pan-EU strategy on FoM for UK citizens post-Brexit, so Spain cannot act unilaterally.
Aren't visa requirements a country responsibility?
Are you sure you don't mean "pan-Schengen" rather than "pan-EU"?
I doubt the Irish are going to turn to the 250,000 Brits in Ireland and say "90 days and you're out". Might make life difficult for the 377,000 Irish in Britain!
The fact-check report that Biden was actually lying when he said he hadn't opposed busing ("only busing imposed by the Department of Education") is pretty damaging. Harris does a great job of making it personal to her. I've never thought much about busing as it hasn't been an issue over here, but I really felt for her.
That said, we all tend to overrate the importance of single exchanges on the race in the medium term. Laying the favo(u)rite generally makes sense early on in crowded races.
Segregated education is an issue in the UK. I remember it being highlighted in the enquiry after the Bradford riots.
However, even when there is a mix the kids tend to self-segregate. Pockets of different ethnicities in each corner of the classroom.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.
Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.
No bad thing. In the last 12 months there's been a massive surge in residency permits issued as people have normalised their positions - a huge boost for private health insurers too as this is needed for under 65s now. However, Spain is taking a very positive and moderate approach to all these matters.
The EU has agreed a pan-EU strategy on FoM for UK citizens post-Brexit, so Spain cannot act unilaterally.
Aren't visa requirements a country responsibility?
Are you sure you don't mean "pan-Schengen" rather than "pan-EU"?
I doubt the Irish are going to turn to the 250,000 Brits in Ireland and say "90 days and you're out". Might make life difficult for the 377,000 Irish in Britain!
The relationship between the UK and ROI is different isn’t it?
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.
Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.
No bad thing. In the last 12 months there's been a massive surge in residency permits issued as people have normalised their positions - a huge boost for private health insurers too as this is needed for under 65s now. However, Spain is taking a very positive and moderate approach to all these matters.
Yep, Sanchez is very good on this. But his hands are tied with regard to non-residents - and future would-be residents. The EU has agreed a pan-EU strategy on FoM for UK citizens post-Brexit, so Spain cannot act unilaterally.
Have you got a source for that? I'd missed that, but it would be remarkable to insist that whilst non-EU migration is the business of individual member states, migration from an ex-member should be dictated by Brussels.
Cmon guys it’s all very good yous laying (or backing) Harris long term but I need some fast profits and 1.15 doesn’t make me 😀. So, South Africa have been playing shit but they did beat Sl 5-0 recently. I ve already laid the draw and my gf doesn’t like me supporting SA.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement
Johnson is very much despised in the rest of the EU, certainly here in Germany. It will not help the UK and the EU27 negotiate a deal having him as PM.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
Cmon guys it’s all very good yous laying (or backing) Harris long term but I need some fast profits and 1.15 doesn’t make me 😀. So, South Africa have been playing shit but they did beat Sl 5-0 recently. I ve already laid the draw and my gf doesn’t like me supporting SA.
'Leaver' Tories are horrible. There is nothing else to be said.
What a fucked up country.
Maybe, but they're far nice than the 'cancel Brexit' brigade who take their ideals from North Korea. At least the Tory Brexiteers have democracy on their side.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.
Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.
No bad thing. In the last 12 months there's been a massive surge in residency permits issued as people have normalised their positions - a huge boost for private health insurers too as this is needed for under 65s now. However, Spain is taking a very positive and moderate approach to all these matters.
Yep, Sanchez is very good on this. But his hands are tied with regard to non-residents - and future would-be residents. The EU has agreed a pan-EU strategy on FoM for UK citizens post-Brexit, so Spain cannot act unilaterally.
Have you got a source for that? I'd missed that, but it would be remarkable to insist that whilst non-EU migration is the business of individual member states, migration from an ex-member should be dictated by Brussels.
Laying the favo(u)rite generally makes sense early on in crowded races.
Harris is now the favourite.
No, Warren
@HYUFD I don't agree with them hence the red next number next to her but as of right now
Harris is 4.2/4.5 Biden 4.7/5.0 Warren 6/6.2
She is the favourite.
Well those odds are absurd, given Warren and Sanders are the only candidates over 10% other than Biden in the national Democratic primary polls and Harris is not even over 10% and Harris is nowhere in Iowa and New Hampshire neither.
Get on Warren fast, if she has got the left liberal vote after last night's debate when she promised universal public healthcare amongst other things she will be Biden's biggest rival, not Harris who will have damaged Biden a bit with out improving her own vote much other than maybe with the black vote in South Carolina
The question is whether Biden’s campaign can survive the loss of inevitability. He could fade away leaving a Warren v Harris final two.
Biden is virtually certain to make the final 2 and it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days. Harris is very much a politician from the Clinton school, careerist who will do what it takes to climb the ladder, not so polished though when the questions are not pre prepared. Warren is a much more polished performer and I have long thought the opponent Trump would most not relish debating. However she has left herself wide open already so stupidly, even so Biden being so close to Obama will potentially help Trump even more as Spygate becomes the big story in the USA next year.
My money is on Warren ending up getting the gig and if the economy holds solid Trump winning 2020 by a similar margin to 2016.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.
Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.
No bad thing. In the last 12 months there's been a massive surge in residency permits issued as people have normalised their positions - a huge boost for private health insurers too as this is needed for under 65s now. However, Spain is taking a very positive and moderate approach to all these matters.
The EU has agreed a pan-EU strategy on FoM for UK citizens post-Brexit, so Spain cannot act unilaterally.
Aren't visa requirements a country responsibility?
Are you sure you don't mean "pan-Schengen" rather than "pan-EU"?
I doubt the Irish are going to turn to the 250,000 Brits in Ireland and say "90 days and you're out". Might make life difficult for the 377,000 Irish in Britain!
The relationship between the UK and ROI is different isn’t it?
The 'Yes Minister' style of sequential questioning worked really well there; a definite hesitation when asked to name the best PM immediately being asked who they would prefer for responsible roles like being their bank manager or driving their kids home.
it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days.
The question is whether Biden’s campaign can survive the loss of inevitability. He could fade away leaving a Warren v Harris final two.
Biden is virtually certain to make the final 2 and it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days. Harris is very much a politician from the Clinton school, careerist who will do what it takes to climb the ladder, not so polished though when the questions are not pre prepared. Warren is a much more polished performer and I have long thought the opponent Trump would most not relish debating. However she has left herself wide open already so stupidly, even so Biden being so close to Obama will potentially help Trump even more as Spygate becomes the big story in the USA next year.
My money is on Warren ending up getting the gig and if the economy holds solid Trump winning 2020 by a similar margin to 2016.
Interesting. Personally I currently also think Warren will win the nomination and go on to defeat Trump in 2020.
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.
Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.
No bad thing. In the last 12 months there's been a massive surge in residency permits issued as people have normalised their positions - a huge boost for private health insurers too as this is needed for under 65s now. However, Spain is taking a very positive and moderate approach to all these matters.
Yep, Sanchez is very good on this. But his hands are tied with regard to non-residents - and future would-be residents. The EU has agreed a pan-EU strategy on FoM for UK citizens post-Brexit, so Spain cannot act unilaterally.
Have you got a source for that? I'd missed that, but it would be remarkable to insist that whilst non-EU migration is the business of individual member states, migration from an ex-member should be dictated by Brussels.
It’s in the political declaration.
- will only apply if agreement is agreed - is only aspirational - seems to be talking about things like visa-free travel, rather than FoM or migration as such.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
The fact-check report that Biden was actually lying when he said he hadn't opposed busing ("only busing imposed by the Department of Education") is pretty damaging. Harris does a great job of making it personal to her. I've never thought much about busing as it hasn't been an issue over here, but I really felt for her.
That said, we all tend to overrate the importance of single exchanges on the race in the medium term. Laying the favo(u)rite generally makes sense early on in crowded races.
Segregated education is an issue in the UK. I remember it being highlighted in the enquiry after the Bradford riots.
However, even when there is a mix the kids tend to self-segregate. Pockets of different ethnicities in each corner of the classroom.
The point of busing wasn't to make all the kids join hands and sing kumbaya, it was to make sure that black and white kids got the same quality of education, because "separate but equal" was and always will be a charade.
The question is whether Biden’s campaign can survive the loss of inevitability. He could fade away leaving a Warren v Harris final two.
Biden is virtually certain to make the final 2 and it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days. Harris is very much a politician from the Clinton school, careerist who will do what it takes to climb the ladder, not so polished though when the questions are not pre prepared. Warren is a much more polished performer and I have long thought the opponent Trump would most not relish debating. However she has left herself wide open already so stupidly, even so Biden being so close to Obama will potentially help Trump even more as Spygate becomes the big story in the USA next year.
My money is on Warren ending up getting the gig and if the economy holds solid Trump winning 2020 by a similar margin to 2016.
Interesting. Personally I currently also think Warren will win the nomination and go on to defeat Trump in 2020.
Depends on the economy in my opinion, if it holds steady I can't see Trump losing, if there is a dip it opens up and then Warren has the best chance by far of beating Trump in the Dem field.
it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days.
it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days.
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement
Johnson is very much despised in the rest of the EU, certainly here in Germany. It will not help the UK and the EU27 negotiate a deal having him as PM.
Putin is despised outside Russia but the death squads run on time.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Apart from a few things such as wine most of those goods could be produced in the UK.
And while consumers might not like any change and disruption at some point this country will have to live within its means.
If No Deal Brexit means more people drinking good British ale instead of poncy foreign wine then we have at least one upside.
There was the story of Agent Garbo who convinced the Nazis he was running two dozen spies in Britain. Unsurprisingly, considering that he had never visited the UK, he made some factual mistakes. One of the best known was his remark to his German controller that on a visit to Glasgow he had found men who "would do anything for a litre of wine". Fortunately it appears that the Germans were equally unaware of Glaswegian drinking habits. https://www.mi5.gov.uk/agent-garbo
The question is whether Biden’s campaign can survive the loss of inevitability. He could fade away leaving a Warren v Harris final two.
Biden is virtually certain to make the final 2 and it only takes some very basic research to find Harris was lying about her Berkeley schooling history at the debate last night, which Biden can use in the coming days. Harris is very much a politician from the Clinton school, careerist who will do what it takes to climb the ladder, not so polished though when the questions are not pre prepared. Warren is a much more polished performer and I have long thought the opponent Trump would most not relish debating. However she has left herself wide open already so stupidly, even so Biden being so close to Obama will potentially help Trump even more as Spygate becomes the big story in the USA next year.
My money is on Warren ending up getting the gig and if the economy holds solid Trump winning 2020 by a similar margin to 2016.
Interesting. Personally I currently also think Warren will win the nomination and go on to defeat Trump in 2020.
Warren is Kerry in a skirt except more left liberal.
Trump likely beats her, Warren and Harris poll significantly worse v Trump head to head than Biden and Sanders
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
Surely in terms of "calling it", the only ones that matter are the Tory members? (I'm assuming not all your friends are Tory members, both from common sense and because you mention they include some "normal people").
Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.
US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?
If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.
I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.
They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.
Not post-Brexit.
You're assuming the EU will offer UK citizens less generous access than US, Australian, Mexican or Argentinian citizens?
Why?
They've said they will.
but to get a better one we’ll need to offer better for EU citizens, too.
We already have:
EU citizens arriving in the UK who wish to stay longer than 3 months and apply for European Temporary Leave to Remain will be subject to identity, criminality and security checks before being granted permission to stay for three years.
Once the UK becomes a third country each EU nation can decide by itself what immigration rules to apply . On one hand Leavers moan about the alleged lack of democracy but then moan when the EU can’t tell the other 27 what rules to apply for immigration from third countries .
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
Did you read the attachment about the steps each business will have to have gone through in order to be allowed on the ferry?
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
And you think this is good?
Salvini, Orban, Putin, Bolsonaro, Modi, Netanyahu etc are strong leaders whether you like them or not and Boris will be a stronger leader than May was
Apart from a few things such as wine most of those goods could be produced in the UK.
And while consumers might not like any change and disruption at some point this country will have to live within its means.
A goods trade deficit is not evidence of a country living beyond its means. It is indicative of a country that makes its living through services and by earning money on its foreign assets. If we were living beyond our means then our net international investment position (difference between assets and liabilities) would have been becoming more negative. In fact, since 2012 it has become less negative by around £340bn and is at around the same level as a decade ago. This obsession with the pursuit of autarky is ridiculous, although like Mr Rentoul I agree that British beer is superior to any of this foreign grape based muck.
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
So, a few days before GE2017 while out canvassing (in what was then a super-marginal) it became obvious that something was going very wrong with the Cons vote. Erstwhile supporters, a lot of them, were particularly vituperative speaking out against the party. I didn't post anything here because we had been asked to keep any campaign news out of social media. Instead, @david_herdson posted his findings and people here saw just that view.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
Surely in terms of "calling it", the only ones that matter are the Tory members? (I'm assuming not all your friends are Tory members, both from common sense and because you mention they include some "normal people").
haha no this is amongst Tory members. The conversation is actually quite funny, not quite AA type enquiry but at some point, someone, sotto voce, will ask "do you have a vote?".
So exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
And you think this is good?
Salvini, Orban, Putin, Bolsonaro, Modi, Netanyahu etc are strong leaders whether you like them or not and Boris will be a stronger leader than May was
Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him
To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.
Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.
Ha Ha. The rest of the world which has recently elected Bolsonaro, Modi, Putin, Lopez Obrador, Trump, Orban , Salvini etc you mean. What an absurd statement
Johnson is very much despised in the rest of the EU, certainly here in Germany. It will not help the UK and the EU27 negotiate a deal having him as PM.
Salvini likes Boris so not all the EU and we already have a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU, once Boris wins a majority he can pass it and move to the FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum
Yes indeed. Bottom line: The EU ports are prepared and ready to go; we are not, and are unlikely to be ready in time. He's suggesting the crunch will come seven days after no deal day.
Doesn't sound like something that can't be sorted out in a few weeks.
Did you read the attachment about the steps each business will have to have gone through in order to be allowed on the ferry?
I'd trust Tesco procurement to expedite anything quicker than central government.
If cucumbers grown in Egypt and Mexico can come in easier and more economically via Southampton than Polish ones via Holland well guess what ..
Comments
Low bar, admittedly....but since the widely predicted "collapse" of British soft power since the Brexit vote....its held remarkably steady..."There's a lot of ruin in a nation..."
Those who are seen to have done best from the debates are Warren, Harris and Buttigieg and that means Warren has done best of all as she is competing with Sanders to be the top tier left liberal candidate while Harris, Buttigieg and Biden are all competing to be the top tier centrist candidate
Polling has consistently shown her as one of the most popular Democrats, and a large majority of the selectorate have yet to make up their minds. And my impression (FWIW) is that she is cautious rather than dull; last night indicated she's prepared to take risks.
If Biden stops looking inevitable, then she has a real shot.
Harris is 4.2/4.5
Biden 4.7/5.0
Warren 6/6.2
She is the favourite.
And the race will likely get rather less crowded in the next month.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
Get on Warren fast, if she has got the left liberal vote after last night's debate when she promised universal public healthcare amongst other things she will be Biden's biggest rival, not Harris who will have damaged Biden a bit with out improving her own vote much other than maybe with the black vote in South Carolina
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/trolls-target-online-polls-following-first-democratic-presidential-debate-n1023406
She topped the Drudge Report instant "poll" of the first deviate.
She has the full backing of the Russian state behind her so don't count here out (count her out she has less than zero chance).
The rollacoaster begins.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/l87q/mret
Apart from a few things such as wine most of those goods could be produced in the UK.
And while consumers might not like any change and disruption at some point this country will have to live within its means.
Look there are still plenty of Brits moving to Spain happy to comply with the arrangements required. There is little sign of that changing. It may become a little more cumbersome and may help root out those whose means would leave them a burden on the Spanish system. We also still do not know what the final arrangements will be post-Brexit. I'd just gently say that the constant doom-mongering about the end of days , etc has long since only served to harden attitudes and really doesn't help the debate at all.
What a fucked up country.
The Ukraine has even elected a comedian President and the current largest party in Italy was founded by a comedian
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rosiegray/tulsi-gabbard-maga-debate
Are you sure you don't mean "pan-Schengen" rather than "pan-EU"?
I doubt the Irish are going to turn to the 250,000 Brits in Ireland and say "90 days and you're out". Might make life difficult for the 377,000 Irish in Britain!
However, even when there is a mix the kids tend to self-segregate. Pockets of different ethnicities in each corner of the classroom.
SL or SA???
Despicable.
Won: Manchester Gorton, Wythenshawe & Sale East, Oldham East & Saddleworth, Wigan, Denton & Reddish, Stalybridge & Hyde, Manchester Withington (7)
Lost: Manchester Central, Heywood & Middleton (2)
Still to go/unknown: Altrincham & Sale West, Ashton, Blackley & Broughton, Bolton West, Bolton North East, Bolton South East, Bury North, Bury South, Hazel Grove, Leigh, Makerfield, Rochdale, Oldham West, Salford & Eccles, Worsley & Eccles South, Cheadle, Stretford & Urmstom, Stockport
He needs to win 19 CLPs in total to be automatically reselected, if all 27 CLPs take part in the trigger ballot.
My money is on Warren ending up getting the gig and if the economy holds solid Trump winning 2020 by a similar margin to 2016.
I think I ll hedge with that boris 50-60 bet
Australian and Chilean are fine for my taste per cost ratio.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7143909/AMANDA-PLATELL-says-Marina-Wheeler-steadfast-support-despite-tried-limit.html
https://www.factcheck.org/2018/07/sen-harris-didnt-lie-about-integration/
- is only aspirational
- seems to be talking about things like visa-free travel, rather than FoM or migration as such.
OK, so in my travels around my associates, friends, acquaintances, I have yet to find any Boris supporters. Now of course mine is by definition a self-selecting group but I can assure you it comprises mustard keen Brexiters, normal people, provincial Tories, county poshos, you name it. All against Boris. Some more in sorrow than in anger, others in anger. The letterbox comment in particular has made people angry, including those close to Party HQ. Whatever their feelings on the burka, they believe Boris set back the Cons reach out to the "Muslim vote" by years.
So, am I calling it against Boris? Only a madman would do that, but there is definitely that feeling out there. I am red on him as people may be aware but that is an emotional vote. Wonder how many others with a vote on it, that said, feel the same as me. We shall see.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1144517503701397504
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1144519804734361600?s=20
Unsurprisingly, considering that he had never visited the UK, he made some factual mistakes. One of the best known was his remark to his German controller that on a visit to Glasgow he had found men who "would do anything for a litre of wine". Fortunately it appears that the Germans were equally unaware of Glaswegian drinking habits.
https://www.mi5.gov.uk/agent-garbo
Trump likely beats her, Warren and Harris poll significantly worse v Trump head to head than Biden and Sanders
Too late now
C mon the rainbow nation
Now 2.9 on Exchange.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:EU_mobile_citizens_of_working_age_(20-64)_by_country_of_citizenship,_%_of_their_home-country_resident_population_.png
So exactly yes, I am talking about Tory members.
Edit: I do though have friends who are not Tory members also. I should have used an asterisk after "normal"
The bets been placed
If cucumbers grown in Egypt and Mexico can come in easier and more economically via Southampton than Polish ones via Holland well guess what ..