politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » March’s Guardian ICM Poll is out
Comments
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A compelling argument no doubt.volcanopete said:On Europe,Ed is clearly concerned with the uncertainty a referendum would create for UK business.It must be remembered too Europe is way down the list of importance to them.It's only a minority issue for voters but for Tories it's the great obsession,which is why they keep on banging on about it.
Some people like referenda but so did Hitler.
In all seriousness the business uncertainty argument has some teeth, as fear and doubt are high in people's mind when it comes to the prospect of leaving the EU, and those two things normally win the day as SeanT says. It is likely the reason I would vote to stay in, out of fear of potential negative consequences, however much ardent europhiles do their best to make everyone even slightly ambiguous on the EU to became arch Euro-sceptics.
So of course Ed M will not offer a referendum as he gains nothing from doing so and probably won't be harmed by it, nor does he really want to offer one and be defined by having to make the actual case for the EU rather than just have it be a side issue as since there is to be no choice, why bang on about it.
But I feel very strongly a referendum should occur, even though I feel the outcome would be for us to leave and I think that we would come to regret that. The EU has changed markedly from what it was at the timethe UK joined, and EU officials and politicos show every sign that they want to accelerate the bits that the UK population dislikes, and no inclination to change anything substantive of the things they dislike, and that is not good for us or the EU.
You cannot just ignore such an issue, as the EU would clearly prefer. It may not be a core issue for most people outside of UKIP and the Tories, but very few people seem to approve of the EU and at best the majority have a grudging acceptance of the situation. It means there is no passion for the EU and its ideals, meaning they get hijacked by a small elite not in touch with the people, which furthers the disillusionment.
Without a referendum the UK will increasingly be a bitter to hostile member of the union, as the eurosceptics view is the common one, hence Labour not wishing to be seen as pro-EU while not wishing to suggest they are anti it either, and so any pro-EU measures will be halfhearted. That is not good for the UK or the EU, as the sides will resent each other, holding back them and upsetting us both.
If there is a referendum and we stay in, many will not like it but the question is settled and people will have given consent in general to the EU's continued mission and development. If we are out the EU gets to be free of us as an anchor, and if we come crawling back they can make us pay through the nose for that, or we will both do fine and be very happy.
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While both coalition parties will rightly be feeling good about this poll, they should consider (especially the LDs) what that says about their position in itself. The Blues are cheering a poll which shows them in the mid-30s and Labour still within the MOE of 40. The Yellows are cheering a poll from their most generous pollster which has them on 12!
That isn't to say that this isn't good news for them, given their current positions, but it's important to keep perspective.0 -
It's the triangulation that is the worst bit. It makes him look duplicitous, lacking in conviction and fails to achieve the Labour goal of closing the subject down for them.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, why do you say that (the worst decision bit, not the triangulation)?
Labour should have gone for either no referendum or to offer one to clear the air. Hedging pleases no one.
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Hat's off to Ravi Bopara. 10 runs in 4 overs. Derbach rarely gives less than that every 6 balls.0
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Worst - so far. Wait until he has to talk to us about his plans for the future direction of the economy....antifrank said:Ed Miliband has stupidly triangulated on the EU. Comfortably the worst decision of his leadership.
Still holding that there is a 15% chance the Labour election campaign will explode horribly on the economy...one of those presentational disasters that people will still study 50 years hence.0 -
Bresnan on a Hat Trick. But no.
Bravo's about to go nuts, I think.0 -
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh at Leeds United taking a severe beating....0
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Mr. Antifrank, fair enough.0
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Oh crap mr mark ;-)MarqueeMark said:It takes a heart of stone not to laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh at Leeds United taking a severe beating....
Sunder Katwala @sundersays · 4 mins
Leeds have just scored two in a couple of minutes. But trail 2-4. Almost 20,000 at Elland Road
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Didn't get on, but laying Munich was obviously THE football bet for tonight.0
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He has a reputation as the 'Always interpret any event as bad for Ed M' to maintain after all, but I suspect you are correct. It's an issue that some people get very very incensed about, and most people when pressed might be unhappy about, but if it truly moved the electorate in a significant fashion, we'd have seen a UKIP surge even greater that the past year, and a lot sooner as well.SeanT said:
Hodges getting it wrong again. This will not significantly affect votes either way. Sadly.Tykejohnno said:For all ye hodges fans ;-)
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 30 secs
That noise you hear is the champagne corks popping in No.10 at Ed Miliband's decision to rule out a Euro referendum0 -
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Labour wants to hand the Tories the rope; make Europe and issue with which Labour simply isn't concerned. I think it'll work.Tykejohnno said:For all ye hodges fans ;-)
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 30 secs
That noise you hear is the champagne corks popping in No.10 at Ed Miliband's decision to rule out a Euro referendum0 -
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Miliband's stance is interesting. He claims that:
[T]he next Labour government will legislate for a new lock: there would be no transfer of powers from the UK to the EU without a referendum on our continued membership of the EU.
Under the provisions of the European Union Act 2011, most major transfers of powers to Brussels cannot happen without a referendum on that proposal. So, in effect, what Miliband proposes is making referenda on such proposals referenda on EU membership. As a result, people who dislike the proposal but support, however inchoately, membership of the EU, and under the current framework could vote to reject the proposal, would be forced to choose between "In" and "Out". Every proposal of further transfers of power to the EU is therefore more likely to be ratified under a Labour government, because opponents of the transfer will be forced to vote in favour of it, for fear of negativing the United Kingdom's membership of the EU.0 -
A future Labour government would call an in/out referendum on the UK's membership of the EU - but only if it was being asked to transfer more powers to Brussels, Ed Miliband has said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26538420
Spin me round, right round baby....spin me...0 -
Under the provisions of the European Union Act 2011, most major transfers of powers to Brussels cannot happen without a referendum on that proposal. So, in effect, what Miliband proposes is making referenda on such proposals referenda on EU membership. As a result, people who dislike the proposal but support, however inchoately, membership of the EU, and under the current framework could vote to reject the proposal, would be forced to choose between "In" and "Out". Every proposal for further transfers of power to the EU is therefore more likely to be ratified under a Labour government, because opponents of the transfer will be forced to vote in favour of it, for fear of negativing the United Kingdom's membership of the EU.Life_ina_market_town said:Miliband's stance is interesting. He claims that:
[T]he next Labour government will legislate for a new lock: there would be no transfer of powers from the UK to the EU without a referendum on our continued membership of the EU.
Sneaky. But effective I would guess. He is a canny one, Ed M.
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Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 7s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down to four points: CON 34%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%0 -
Keith Vaz MP @Keith_VazMP · 5m
Delighted to hear that Labour will have an in-out referendum. A giant step forward #onthe roadtodamascus
LOL,someone better tell keith ;-)0 -
Ozil or Dernbach... SPOTY?0
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The current government intend to transfer powers over Justice and Home Affairs to the EU after the May elections. Will Labour push for a referendum over that?FrancisUrquhart said:A future Labour government would call an in/out referendum on the UK's membership of the EU - but only if it was being asked to transfer more powers to Brussels, Ed Miliband has said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26538420
Spin me round, right round baby....spin me...
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100260182/the-next-tory-plot-to-embarrass-david-cameron-on-europe-is-already-taking-shape/
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There are a group of voters who wake up in the morning and, after they have wondered, sometimes aloud, how we might roll back the state today, turn to leaving the EU while munching on their cornflakes. They assume most other men breakfast like they do. But we don't. We drain a coffee and wonder why the BBC had to give Susanna Reid gardening leave.0
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Oops....Tykejohnno said:Keith Vaz MP @Keith_VazMP · 5m
Delighted to hear that Labour will have an in-out referendum. A giant step forward #onthe roadtodamascus
LOL,someone better tell keith ;-)0 -
It's not the policy. It's the mess.BobaFett said:@Antifrank
No-one cares.
@SeanT is right.0 -
"Current Affair’s exclusive on the “astounding breaches of security” evinced in the encounter featured one of the girl’s firsthand accounts of being invited into the cockpit by the pilots, one of which included a co-pilot of Flight 370.
'Throughout the entire flight they were talking to us. They were actually smoking, which I don’t think they were allowed to be doing. And they were taking photos with us in the cockpit while we were flying. I was just completely shocked. I couldn’t believe it'.
One the way back from a vacation in Thailand, the teen girls had been spotted at the boarding gate by the pilots and asked if they would like to join them in the cockpit. There the pilots smoked and took pictures with the girls. The teens remained in the cockpit for the entirety of the international flight, from take-off to landing.
The young woman described the intentions of the pilots as “possibly a little bit sleazy,” stating that they had asked the girls to change their flight plans when they arrived so the pilots could take them out."
http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/co-pilot-flight-370-invited-teen-girls-cabin-entire-flight#.Ux9_uzpSQ4U.twitter0 -
Most of my mornings are spent looking for the f*cking keys and phone. Both are often found in the bin, which my son appears to think is the storage container for anything and everything he gets his sticky mitts on.BobaFett said:There are a group of voters who wake up in the morning and, after they have wondered, sometimes aloud, how we might roll back the state today, turn to leaving the EU while munching on their cornflakes. They assume most other men breakfast like they do. But we don't. We drain a coffee and wonder why the BBC had to give Susanna Reid gardening leave.
Musings on EU membership, not so much.0 -
It's a straight fight between Lamela and Soldado.Scrapheap_as_was said:Ozil or Dernbach... SPOTY?
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Many interested in politics attribute to the average member of the public a far higher level of interest in politics than he/she actually has. It is a habit by no means confined to opponents of the European Union.BobaFett said:There are a group of voters who wake up in the morning and, after they have wondered, sometimes aloud, how we might roll back the state today, turn to leaving the EU while munching on their cornflakes. They assume most other men breakfast like they do. But we don't. We drain a coffee and wonder why the BBC had to give Susanna Reid gardening leave.
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It's neither. It's nowt.antifrank said:
It's not the policy. It's the mess.BobaFett said:@Antifrank
No-one cares.
@SeanT is right.
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Under the provisions of the European Union Act 2011, most major transfers of powers to Brussels cannot happen without a referendum on that proposal. So, in effect, what Miliband proposes is making referenda on such proposals referenda on EU membership. As a result, people who dislike the proposal but support, however inchoately, membership of the EU, and under the current framework could vote to reject the proposal, would be forced to choose between "In" and "Out". Every proposal of further transfers of power to the EU is therefore more likely to be ratified under a Labour government, because opponents of the transfer will be forced to vote in favour of it, for fear of negativing the United Kingdom's membership of the EU.Life_ina_market_town said:Miliband's stance is interesting. He claims that:
[T]he next Labour government will legislate for a new lock: there would be no transfer of powers from the UK to the EU without a referendum on our continued membership of the EU.
People might resent being backed into a corner, and vote No, anyway, particularly if the Referendum was at a time of mid-term unpopularity.
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Christ, Spurs spent £56 million on Lamela and Soldado.
Liverpool spent the same signing Suarez and Carroll.0 -
@DPJHodges: Becoming pretty clear Labour have messed up on this EU announcement. Wanted the headline to be "Ed promises referendum".Tykejohnno said:Keith Vaz MP @Keith_VazMP · 5m
Delighted to hear that Labour will have an in-out referendum. A giant step forward #onthe roadtodamascus
LOL,someone better tell keith ;-)
@SkyNews: FINANCIAL TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Miliband rules out early EU poll" #skypapers http://t.co/hYGRTB4Dgc
@Spectator_CH: Ed Miliband rules out EU referendum http://t.co/oT1nPBhXB1
@TelePolitics: Ed Miliband will not hold an EU referendum http://t.co/odRxJnfiSS
@DanHannanMEP: Labour: "We'll do anything for The People except ask their opinion". http://t.co/QLlgzub8b50 -
New Zealand PM John Key wants to change the national flag despite polls showing 72% of people are happy with the current version:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-265241320 -
That is true, but I have little faith in "the people". Miliband has adopted the Liberal Democrats' policy at the time of Lisbon, which was to conflate rejecting an unpopular transfer of powers to the European Union with secession therefrom.Sean_F said:People might resent being backed into a corner, and vote No, anyway, particularly if the Referendum was at a time of mid-term unpopularity.
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Is he related to Alex Salmond?AndyJS said:New Zealand PM John Key wants to change the national flag despite polls showing 72% of people are happy with the current version:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-265241320 -
Its ok, the BBC are still on message...Scott_P said:
@DPJHodges: Becoming pretty clear Labour have messed up on this EU announcement. Wanted the headline to be "Ed promises referendum".Tykejohnno said:Keith Vaz MP @Keith_VazMP · 5m
Delighted to hear that Labour will have an in-out referendum. A giant step forward #onthe roadtodamascus
LOL,someone better tell keith ;-)
@SkyNews: FINANCIAL TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Miliband rules out early EU poll" #skypapers http://t.co/hYGRTB4Dgc
@Spectator_CH: Ed Miliband rules out EU referendum http://t.co/oT1nPBhXB1
@TelePolitics: Ed Miliband will not hold an EU referendum http://t.co/odRxJnfiSS
@DanHannanMEP: Labour: "We'll do anything for The People except ask their opinion". http://t.co/QLlgzub8b50 -
Tim has won a bet.
Will he come back now?0 -
Quite so - by refusing to countenance the possibility now, while doing next to nothing to address the concerns many people have about the EU, it just gives more time for that discomfort to transform into a desire to leave. Lip service about the need for reform, when the bureaucrats and arch europhiles' words indicate they do not truly believe there should be change away from the things the UK public at least does not like - and in fact they are insulted at the very idea - and therefore no such reform will take place of any substance, will do nothing but save the problem up for a future goverment.SeanT said:Re Red's EU roundabout.
I have a strange feeling the europhiles - who would surely have won an in/out referendum at any point in the last 3 decades, and probably would win one in the next five years - will, in their cowardice and pusillanimity, delay a vote so long, and annoy the voters so much by their delay, that in the end they will be forced to call a vote at the worst possible time for their cause - and thus they will lose. And we will quit.
But then what politician/person would not put off a problem today to be dealt with tomorrow? That's future them's problem.0 -
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So weird - it's an issue for which apparently there is little appetite, and it is planned 'within three years', which may as well be 100 in terms of political relevance for minor plans, so why announce it now anyway?AndyJS said:New Zealand PM John Key wants to change the national flag despite polls showing 72% of people are happy with the current version:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26524132
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I must admit that my position on the fence is unsteady, and I'm veering towards BOO. But not at any cost, and not until there is a firm vision of what exactly BOO means.SeanT said:Re Red's EU roundabout.
I have a strange feeling the europhiles - who would surely have won an in/out referendum at any point in the last 3 decades, and probably would win one in the next five years - will, in their cowardice and pusillanimity, delay a vote so long, and annoy the voters so much by their delay, that in the end they will be forced to call a vote at the worst possible time for their cause - and thus they will lose. And we will quit.
And I speak as an ex eurosceptic who is now more euro-agnostic; though I agree with kle that, morally, we should have a vote.0 -
By reporting his plan accurately apparently.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its ok, the BBC are still on message...Scott_P said:
@DPJHodges: Becoming pretty clear Labour have messed up on this EU announcement. Wanted the headline to be "Ed promises referendum".Tykejohnno said:Keith Vaz MP @Keith_VazMP · 5m
Delighted to hear that Labour will have an in-out referendum. A giant step forward #onthe roadtodamascus
LOL,someone better tell keith ;-)
@SkyNews: FINANCIAL TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Miliband rules out early EU poll" #skypapers http://t.co/hYGRTB4Dgc
@Spectator_CH: Ed Miliband rules out EU referendum http://t.co/oT1nPBhXB1
@TelePolitics: Ed Miliband will not hold an EU referendum http://t.co/odRxJnfiSS
@DanHannanMEP: Labour: "We'll do anything for The People except ask their opinion". http://t.co/QLlgzub8b5
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The Guardian have published some more polling here
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/11/lib-dems-recover-third-place-ukip-guardian-icm-poll
I would update the thread header, but I'm having some technical issues at the moment.0 -
Sean
I think you are clutching at straws. 38% with ICM is job done. Any Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.0 -
kle4 said:
One of the few things I've been interested in Gove's world of schools, is where is the money coming from for these independent flagship not for profit schools. Seems to be a special fund of some sort that doesn't need Parliamentary approval or oversight.compouter2 said:Further comment on Mr Gove flagship for-profit school from Oftsed who has classed it inadequate and placed it in special measures after it's first inspection
Sorry, if there is no profit, why do they exist? (Puhleeze, don't tell me that the gratitude of the capitalist system is to dispense freebies so that the bosses can enter the Gates of Heaven with a clear conscience or similar rubbish)
Gove seems to be very reticent about this, which is very unusual for him.
And Gove's Dark Master, the Dreaded Murdoch, has his fingers in many Educational Electronic Pies in the US. Some of the Privatised Schools in the US are using Murdoch's technology have reduced the teacher to pupil ratio and increased the remaining teacher wages because the teachers can have more control over their pupils/students and get better results.
eg: Homework can be set to done on an iPad (other os's are available), the teacher can find out how long the student has worked, what problems they had, and can award "points" on the work delivered. The teacher can aggregate the work of the class and can decide how to improve understanding of the work to be delivered or to give special attention to one or more of the class to bring the entire class up to the acceptable standard required of them, plus get increased wages for doing so.
To be honest, I can see the benefits of such a system. I can just about remember my schooling and apart from different ways of saying things, nothing much seems to have changed over the years.
Now (and then): Teacher enter class room prepared for battle, or not, gives the same lesson as last year, sets the same homework, marks homework, goes to the pub for a pint/gin and tonic or two and complains that the students are the worst they have ever had to deal with.
Perhaps the time has come for a change.
To be honest, I would be proud to announce such a change. It would leapfrog the UK in nearly all of the educational leagues.
Plus explaining to teachers that they had a good chance of doubling their wages and doing less work would get their interest over any left wing politics.0 -
It regularly buries the post comment button under the links running down the side, which means instead of getting to geek out with Josias over the minutiae of rail reform I end up with a PB thread from 1988.SeanT said:BTW - mods, Vanilla is almost unusable at the mo. On PC, iPad or iPhone. Nightmare.
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I see the minister of defence(Hammond)as made the mirrors front page.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/94385/daily_mirror_wednesday_12th_march_2014.html0 -
I doubt if this will ever be legislated, anyway.Life_ina_market_town said:
That is true, but I have little faith in "the people". Miliband has adopted the Liberal Democrats' policy at the time of Lisbon, which was to conflate rejecting an unpopular transfer of powers to the European Union with secession therefrom.Sean_F said:People might resent being backed into a corner, and vote No, anyway, particularly if the Referendum was at a time of mid-term unpopularity.
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I find that very hard to believe. Labour have a vastly easier task to get a majority than the Tories do, but their polling is really not that bad given how openly divided they are, and the unpopularity of years of (inevitable) austerity.IOS said:Sean
I think you are clutching at straws. 38% with ICM is job done. Any Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.
The Tories will lose in 2015, and will either lurch right or purch its right in response given how much the right seems to detest Cameron, but really the party should not lose by too much, and that should keep its internal divisions from fracturing too spectacularly, so I cannot see how Cameron has been that disastrous. Disasppointing, divisive and ineffectual, yes, but not disastrous.
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I tend to use politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com to access the site, as it gets around the vodafone block.0
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Agreed. Labour's strategy is to keep cool and hope that, by the summer, the Tories start panicking. But until they hit the panic button it's still in play.SeanT said:
Nah. It's not over. Miliband is likely the next PM - but it's far from a done deal.IOS said:Sean
I think you are clutching at straws. 38% with ICM is job done. Any Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.
Look at how Fear and Doubt is winning the Scottish referendum.
The next GE should be, for the Tories, a case of using exactly the same recipe vis a vis Miliband and Labour: i.e. make people fearful and doubtful - about a future, spend-and-borrow Labour government putting us right back in the poo, just as the British economy is reviving.
Happily for Tories, Labour are led by Miliband and Balls, who are enough to make anyone a bit nervous.
The electoral maths is negative for Cameron, which makes me favour a small Miliband majority. But the game is not finished.
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Twitter
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant 5m
Labour will give an In/Out EU Referendum BUT ONLY if more powers are transferred to EU from UK and EdM says THAT is unlikely.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 5m
Also spot on; RT @JohnRentoul I think EdM can hold that line on an EU referendum as long as Labour is ahead in the polls.
David Cameron @David_Cameron 40m
1/2 By his own admission, Ed Miliband says it's unlikely there'll be an in-out referendum on Europe under Labour.
David Cameron @David_Cameron 40m
2/2 Only the Conservative Party can guarantee and deliver that in-out referendum.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP 6m
Clegg and Miliband keep saying the EU needs reform. Name a single reform they have successfully pursued.0 -
The Tories aren't panicking already? Their flailings may have calmed somewhat, but their continual self harming suggests to me they are desperate and unable to focus as a result.BobaFett said:
Agreed. Labour's strategy is to keep cool and hope that, by the summer, the Tories start panicking. But until they hit the panic button it's still in play.SeanT said:
Nah. It's not over. Miliband is likely the next PM - but it's far from a done deal.IOS said:Sean
I think you are clutching at straws. 38% with ICM is job done. Any Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.
Look at how Fear and Doubt is winning the Scottish referendum.
The next GE should be, for the Tories, a case of using exactly the same recipe vis a vis Miliband and Labour: i.e. make people fearful and doubtful - about a future, spend-and-borrow Labour government putting us right back in the poo, just as the British economy is reviving.
Happily for Tories, Labour are led by Miliband and Balls, who are enough to make anyone a bit nervous.
The electoral maths is negative for Cameron, which makes me favour a small Miliband majority. But the game is not finished.
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For the LDs, 12% from ICM is a bad result.SeanT said:
More importantly, there are now tiny signs of a Lib Dem revival.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm0 -
Last week the Osborne/Boris spat was presented as leadership manoeuvring indicating the Conservatives (including Top Cameroon George!) had given up on 2015 as a lost cause.kle4 said:
The Tories aren't panicking already? Their flailings may have calmed somewhat, but their continual self harming suggests to me they are desperate and unable to focus as a result.BobaFett said:
Agreed. Labour's strategy is to keep cool and hope that, by the summer, the Tories start panicking. But until they hit the panic button it's still in play.SeanT said:
Nah. It's not over. Miliband is likely the next PM - but it's far from a done deal.IOS said:Sean
I think you are clutching at straws. 38% with ICM is job done. Any Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.
Look at how Fear and Doubt is winning the Scottish referendum.
The next GE should be, for the Tories, a case of using exactly the same recipe vis a vis Miliband and Labour: i.e. make people fearful and doubtful - about a future, spend-and-borrow Labour government putting us right back in the poo, just as the British economy is reviving.
Happily for Tories, Labour are led by Miliband and Balls, who are enough to make anyone a bit nervous.
The electoral maths is negative for Cameron, which makes me favour a small Miliband majority. But the game is not finished.
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Just in.
Has Nick Palmer phoned home?0 -
@fitalass
While Miliband's proposal is superficial, it is hardly worse than Cameron's specious attempt at Wilsonism.0 -
Or this confirmation by miliband that only one party who could win power will offer a referendum might galvanise the tories and focus on keeping in Government.kle4 said:
The Tories aren't panicking already? Their flailings may have calmed somewhat, but their continual self harming suggests to me they are desperate and unable to focus as a result.BobaFett said:
Agreed. Labour's strategy is to keep cool and hope that, by the summer, the Tories start panicking. But until they hit the panic button it's still in play.SeanT said:
Nah. It's not over. Miliband is likely the next PM - but it's far from a done deal.IOS said:Sean
I think you are clutching at straws. 38% with ICM is job done. Any Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.
Look at how Fear and Doubt is winning the Scottish referendum.
The next GE should be, for the Tories, a case of using exactly the same recipe vis a vis Miliband and Labour: i.e. make people fearful and doubtful - about a future, spend-and-borrow Labour government putting us right back in the poo, just as the British economy is reviving.
Happily for Tories, Labour are led by Miliband and Balls, who are enough to make anyone a bit nervous.
The electoral maths is negative for Cameron, which makes me favour a small Miliband majority. But the game is not finished.
Or if they have a bad euro elections and still trailing badly in polls,cameron better watch his back ;-)
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SeanT
The Tories don't have a party left. The fact that they have people like Sean Fear joining UKIP shows how they are a spent force.
In my opinion a new right wing, working people orientated party. That focused on making sure the labourer from Sheffield got his two weeks abroad every year. That looked at how it could help every bright kid make it to the top regardless of who they are could win a majority in this country.
But not Dave. Not Dave and his 6 other Etonians writing his manifesto.0 -
And that the key figures in EU officialdom and cheerleading react with barely contained disgust at the suggestion of anything beyond superficial change.john_zims said:@fitalass
'Clegg and Miliband keep saying the EU needs reform. Name a single reform they have successfully pursued.'
They must have forgotten that we've been told that for at least the past 10 years.
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Key ICM finding:
"All told, the poll suggests that the number of voters that the Tories might hope to snatch from Labour and the Lib Dems is roughly four times larger than the number of Ukip voters who might embrace David Cameron – which highlights the dangers for him in obsessing about his right flank at the expense of the middle ground."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/11/lib-dems-recover-third-place-ukip-guardian-icm-poll0 -
A great night to be a eurosceptic. Labour have turned the debate back to members of the European Union, have made it politically impossible for any future government to transfer power to the EU without a referendum, AND come over as duplicitous and weaselling Europhiles.0
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This stuff Miliband is saying about the EU referendum is a perfect example of why he's struggling so much: he just can't give a straight, simple answer on anything. "We don't want a referendum but we might have one in certain circumstances if the sun rises to the east on the 10th of the month, and we're in favour of the EU but at the same time we're not".
It's a typical New Labour tactic of trying to square all the circles and not try to offend anyone, but it just looks like insincere waffle. If he just said "sorry, I want to stay in the EU and don't want a referedum", he would probably win a degree of kudos even from people who disagree with him for atleast being straight and honest.0 -
He will ignore it. Half his party are obsessed with the idea that if they lurch right they will be swept to a majority with ease, and while he seems to have resisted doing so too overtly, if he tries to woo anyone from the centre or centre left at the expense of the right, he will be crucified/unable to follow through due to outrage from the right.MikeL said:Key ICM finding:
"All told, the poll suggests that the number of voters that the Tories might hope to snatch from Labour and the Lib Dems is roughly four times larger than the number of Ukip voters who might embrace David Cameron – which highlights the dangers for him in obsessing about his right flank at the expense of the middle ground."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/11/lib-dems-recover-third-place-ukip-guardian-icm-poll
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Some polling by YouGov in the Times.
Respondents were asked to imagine which of the likely leader contenders would improve their chances of winning the 2020 ballot.
Increase/Decrease
BoJo 43/24 - Net +19
May 30/35 - Net -5
Osborne 7/56 - Net - 49
Gove and Hunt increase figures are 5%, no decrease figure given0 -
'Typical New Labour Tactics' worked though didn't they? Why wouldn't Ed M adopt them.Danny565 said:This stuff Miliband is saying about the EU referendum is a perfect example of why he's struggling so much: he just can't give a straight, simple answer on anything. "We don't want a referendum but we might have one in certain circumstances if the sun rises to the east on the 10th of the month, and we're in favour of the EU but at the same time we're not".
It's a typical New Labour tactic of trying to square all the circles and not try to offend anyone, but it just looks like insincere waffle. If he just said "sorry, I want to stay in the EU and don't want a referedum", he would probably win a degree of kudos even from people who disagree with him for atleast being straight and honest.
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You've back tracked a bit here SeanT. You yourself has said that Cammo could never be trusted to keep his promises re the EU. Kippers still believe that this is still true today, even more so.SeanT said:
SeanF - you're a smart and honest Kipper, I'd be interested in yr opinion. Does Miliband's dismissal of an in/out vote make you more likely to vote Tory?Sean_F said:
I doubt if this will ever be legislated, anyway.Life_ina_market_town said:
That is true, but I have little faith in "the people". Miliband has adopted the Liberal Democrats' policy at the time of Lisbon, which was to conflate rejecting an unpopular transfer of powers to the European Union with secession therefrom.Sean_F said:People might resent being backed into a corner, and vote No, anyway, particularly if the Referendum was at a time of mid-term unpopularity.
I believe it should, if you are intellectually honest - and if getting a vote on Europe is so important to you.
Cameron is now the only leader promising an EU referendum. He may be lying outright (though I don't think he is), he would, I agree, surely campaign for IN after a feeble & fake renegotiation, nonetheless he is the ONLY party leader who will give you what you want. A vote on Europe.
How can you therefore damage the Tory chances of winning in 2015 by voting UKIP? What do you expect to happen after Miliband wins in 2015? Do you think that the defeated Tories will swing right and be even more sceptic and make an alliance with you? Why? The electoral maths will tell them to be MORE centrist and focus less on Europe.
I agree with much of your disdain for posho Cameroons etc. I empathise hugely with your position on Europe. But an honest analysis of politics, as it is, should lead you and your fellow Kippers to cast a reluctant Tory vote in 2015.
By all means vote UKIP in your trillions in May. I will probably do the same just for the hell of it. But if you are logical you have to bite the bullet and give Cameron yr vote at the next General Elex.
Cammo has turned out to be a cheap liar on anything from Pasties to Floods to the EU Referendums. Kippers believe that you can't trust any of the Lab/Lib/Con parties ever again.
What I can't understand is why your complete 190º turn in only a few weeks. Who's money are you taking now?0 -
Not at all. The next transfer of power will simply be explained away as a 'tidying up exercise'. Again. Not a transfer of power at all.Socrates said:A great night to be a eurosceptic. Labour have turned the debate back to members of the European Union, have made it politically impossible for any future government to transfer power to the EU without a referendum, AND come over as duplicitous and weaselling Europhiles.
These are not the droids you're looking for.
0 -
Forgotten John Major? They haven't won a majority since he won in 1992, even against Gordon Brown in 2010.IOS said:
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.0 -
A Labour lead down to 3-4%, the Tories hitting 35% and over a year to go.IOS said:SeanT
The Tories don't have a party left. The fact that they have people like Sean Fear joining UKIP shows how they are a spent force.
In my opinion a new right wing, working people orientated party. That focused on making sure the labourer from Sheffield got his two weeks abroad every year. That looked at how it could help every bright kid make it to the top regardless of who they are could win a majority in this country.
But not Dave. Not Dave and his 6 other Etonians writing his manifesto.
Cheltenham Hill? What hill?
Cameron = Golden Miller, Arkle and Best Mate blended.
0 -
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Or they could just flat-out change their position before 2020 or 2025. These parliamentary "locks" don't actually do anything substantial even if they actually pass them, because if you can pass the treaty legislation you can also pass legislation saying the "lock" doesn't apply to the treaty.anotherDave said:
Not at all. The next transfer of power will simply be explained away as a 'tidying up exercise'. Again. Not a transfer of power at all.Socrates said:A great night to be a eurosceptic. Labour have turned the debate back to members of the European Union, have made it politically impossible for any future government to transfer power to the EU without a referendum, AND come over as duplicitous and weaselling Europhiles.
These are not the droids you're looking for.
You don't generally want to believe things politicians say they'll do in the next parliament, but you certainly shouldn't take any notice of things they say they'll do in the one after that.0 -
They worked briefly, but people can see through the tactics now. One of the things people hate most about politicians these days is when they can't tell you plainly what they believe, and are just out to get votes rather than acting for what they believe in.kle4 said:
'Typical New Labour Tactics' worked though didn't they? Why wouldn't Ed M adopt them.Danny565 said:This stuff Miliband is saying about the EU referendum is a perfect example of why he's struggling so much: he just can't give a straight, simple answer on anything. "We don't want a referendum but we might have one in certain circumstances if the sun rises to the east on the 10th of the month, and we're in favour of the EU but at the same time we're not".
It's a typical New Labour tactic of trying to square all the circles and not try to offend anyone, but it just looks like insincere waffle. If he just said "sorry, I want to stay in the EU and don't want a referedum", he would probably win a degree of kudos even from people who disagree with him for atleast being straight and honest.
That's why Nigel Farage is so popular: in any previous era of politics, he wouldn't be considered particularly "charismatic" or a good communicator at all, but he stands out among the current crop of politicians simply because, unlike most of them, he actually gives straightforward answers and policies and always gives you the sense that he genuinely believes what he's saying.0 -
I agree that that is why Farage is pretty popular...but come 2015 people will still vote Labour in comfortably, so while people may express frustration that most of our political classes are bland, deliberately obfuscating political tacticians with little natural charisma, they apparently keep voting for them. We'll get what we deserve.Danny565 said:
They worked briefly, but people can see through the tactics now. One of the things people hate most about politicians these days is when they can't tell you plainly what they believe, and are just out to get votes rather than acting for what they believe in.kle4 said:
'Typical New Labour Tactics' worked though didn't they? Why wouldn't Ed M adopt them.Danny565 said:This stuff Miliband is saying about the EU referendum is a perfect example of why he's struggling so much: he just can't give a straight, simple answer on anything. "We don't want a referendum but we might have one in certain circumstances if the sun rises to the east on the 10th of the month, and we're in favour of the EU but at the same time we're not".
It's a typical New Labour tactic of trying to square all the circles and not try to offend anyone, but it just looks like insincere waffle. If he just said "sorry, I want to stay in the EU and don't want a referedum", he would probably win a degree of kudos even from people who disagree with him for atleast being straight and honest.
That's why Nigel Farage is so popular: in any previous era of politics, he wouldn't be considered particularly "charismatic" or a good communicator at all, but he stands out among the current crop of politicians simply because, unlike most of them, he actually gives straightforward answers and policies and always gives you the sense that he genuinely believes what he's saying.
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Can I just have one bloody 36-36 outlier !TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 7s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down to four points: CON 34%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%0 -
@SeanT
I don't think the Tories to swing hard right after Cameron loses, but I think they will put a genuinely more eurosceptic guy in. All that voting for Cameron would do at this point would reduce UKIP's vote share, while, at best getting the Tories to a position where they can't make a deal with the Lib Dems and we get a Lib-Lab coalition despite the fact the Tories are the largest party.0 -
You think it is bad for you?Pulpstar said:
Can I just have one bloody 36-36 outlier !TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 7s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down to four points: CON 34%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%
http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3095/2443730019_5e4ac5b8ba_z.jpg0 -
When I posted about it could galvanise the tories ,it's working already ;-)
Nadine Dorries MP @NadineDorriesMP · 29 secs
Today, Ed Milliband lost Labour a shed load of votes - no wonder John Mann MP is so mad!
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Inverted snobbery is a horrible trait.IOS said:SeanT
The Tories don't have a party left. The fact that they have people like Sean Fear joining UKIP shows how they are a spent force.
In my opinion a new right wing, working people orientated party. That focused on making sure the labourer from Sheffield got his two weeks abroad every year. That looked at how it could help every bright kid make it to the top regardless of who they are could win a majority in this country.
But not Dave. Not Dave and his 6 other Etonians writing his manifesto.0 -
It makes no difference. I've already said that UKIP won't feature in Luton South, in 2015, and I'd marginally prefer Cameron to Milliband.SeanT said:
SeanF - you're a smart and honest Kipper, I'd be interested in yr opinion. Does Miliband's dismissal of an in/out vote make you more likely to vote Tory?Sean_F said:
I doubt if this will ever be legislated, anyway.Life_ina_market_town said:
That is true, but I have little faith in "the people". Miliband has adopted the Liberal Democrats' policy at the time of Lisbon, which was to conflate rejecting an unpopular transfer of powers to the European Union with secession therefrom.Sean_F said:People might resent being backed into a corner, and vote No, anyway, particularly if the Referendum was at a time of mid-term unpopularity.
I believe it should, if you are intellectually honest - and if getting a vote on Europe is so important to you.
Cameron is now the only leader promising an EU referendum. He may be lying outright (though I don't think he is), he would, I agree, surely campaign for IN after a feeble & fake renegotiation, nonetheless he is the ONLY party leader who will give you what you want. A vote on Europe.
How can you therefore damage the Tory chances of winning in 2015 by voting UKIP? What do you expect to happen after Miliband wins in 2015? Do you think that the defeated Tories will swing right and be even more sceptic and make an alliance with you? Why? The electoral maths will tell them to be MORE centrist and focus less on Europe.
I agree with much of your disdain for posho Cameroons etc. I empathise hugely with your position on Europe. But an honest analysis of politics, as it is, should lead you and your fellow Kippers to cast a reluctant Tory vote in 2015.
By all means vote UKIP in your trillions in May. I will probably do the same just for the hell of it. But if you are logical you have to bite the bullet and give Cameron yr vote at the next General Elex.
As to the wider issue, UKIP must do what the SNP have done. Maximise support, membership, and electoral representation, in order to optimise their chances of securing EU withdrawal.
Had another party offered a referendum on Scottish independence 10 years ago, the SNP would have dismissed any suggestion they should disband and transfer their support to that party. So it is with UKIP.0 -
I think you may be being a little arrogant here.IOS said:Sean
I think you are clutching at straws. 38% with ICM is job done. Any Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.
38% a year out is a long way from job done! and only a blinkered Labour supporter would seriously believe a Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
I have never voted Tory in all my life but I would now consider it if it made any difference in my constituency, I regard Miliband as so dangerous he must be kept out at all costs.0 -
Wouldn't it though? The majority of LD seats in England at least have Con in second place I had thought, in which case a LD revival would increase the liklihood that the Tories do not manage to win enough seats to remain largest party by depriving them of a lot of what had looked like easy pickings from the LDs.nigel4england said:
I think you may be being a little arrogant here.IOS said:Sean
I think you are clutching at straws. 38% with ICM is job done. Any Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
The Tories need to get this parliament over with and regroup after David Cameron's disastrous tenure as leader. Never has a British leader done so much to destroy one party.
38% a year out is a long way from job done! and only a blinkered Labour supporter would seriously believe a Lib Dem revival will hit the Tories harder.
As I have never voted Labour before, if I am wrong about the LDs hitting the Tories harder, it is as least proof not only blinkered Labour supporters believe so.0 -
I tend to think the Tories will still be the largest party after the next election, but nothing would induce the Lib Dems to let an EU referendum bill to pass.Socrates said:@SeanT
I don't think the Tories to swing hard right after Cameron loses, but I think they will put a genuinely more eurosceptic guy in. All that voting for Cameron would do at this point would reduce UKIP's vote share, while, at best getting the Tories to a position where they can't make a deal with the Lib Dems and we get a Lib-Lab coalition despite the fact the Tories are the largest party.
0 -
SeanT
There is your answer from SeanF. It does not matter. The fact that Cameron has failed to take sean with him shows just how poor he is as a leader.0 -
As I said, in a seat like Luton South, where it's a binary choice between Conservative and Labour, I'd vote Conservative.IOS said:SeanT
There is your answer from SeanF. It does not matter. The fact that Cameron has failed to take sean with him shows just how poor he is as a leader.
But, in the 500 or so seats that are safe, why should a UKIP supporter vote tactically?0 -
And the alternatives are good, is that what you are seriously suggesting?IOS said:SeanT
There is your answer from SeanF. It does not matter. The fact that Cameron has failed to take sean with him shows just how poor he is as a leader.0 -
Yes, and yet still at 35 in today's poll. He's a bad leader, and the Tories are divided as all hell, but they retain significant base support and suggesting they are all but gone as a party is as preposterous as UKIPers who claim Lib/Lab/Con are no longer relevant despite together capturing 80% or so in the polls.IOS said:SeanT
There is your answer from SeanF. It does not matter. The fact that Cameron has failed to take sean with him shows just how poor he is as a leader.
Night all
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SeanF
The fact you aren't actively working for the Tories is a loss to them. Considering their ground game people who "get it" going to an opposing party is a double blow.
Blair may have been a poor PM in many ways. But he still delivered another 2 big wins after his first election. Cameron cannot do that - because he is a poor leader.0 -
"Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 search crowdsourced by U.S. firm
Internet users can search for the missing plane in satellite images of ocean"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-crowdsourced-by-u-s-firm-1.2568677?cmp=rss0 -
I prefer to call him a "special" leader. Only a "special" leader could cut his membership in half in his tenure.IOS said:SeanF
The fact you aren't actively working for the Tories is a loss to them. Considering their ground game people who "get it" going to an opposing party is a double blow.
Blair may have been a poor PM in many ways. But he still delivered another 2 big wins after his first election. Cameron cannot do that - because he is a poor leader.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2424282/Tories-admit-HALF-members-quit-party-David-Cameron-leader-2005.html
No wonder he has to pay for people to "Like" him on Facebook ;-)0 -
To be fair IOS, we do not yet know how Cameron will do in the next election yet. He gained more than 100 seats last election and formed a government.
It does not look likely that he will do so again, but it is not yet certain that he will not!IOS said:SeanF
The fact you aren't actively working for the Tories is a loss to them. Considering their ground game people who "get it" going to an opposing party is a double blow.
Blair may have been a poor PM in many ways. But he still delivered another 2 big wins after his first election. Cameron cannot do that - because he is a poor leader.0 -
AndyAndyJS said:"Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 search crowdsourced by U.S. firm
Internet users can search for the missing plane in satellite images of ocean"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-crowdsourced-by-u-s-firm-1.2568677?cmp=rss
This Tomnod crowdsourced satellite pic is causing a big twitter flutter at present:
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1103537
Is it MH370 or a ship?
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I fear Nick Palmer's Russian hosts have poured him into bed.0
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To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.AveryLP said:
AndyAndyJS said:"Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 search crowdsourced by U.S. firm
Internet users can search for the missing plane in satellite images of ocean"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-crowdsourced-by-u-s-firm-1.2568677?cmp=rss
This Tomnod crowdsourced satellite pic is causing a big twitter flutter at present:
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1103537
Is it MH370 or a ship?0 -
Congrats to SeanT on reaching 2,000 Twitter followers. And the book deal.0
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Agree, it's probably a ship.compouter2 said:
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.AveryLP said:
AndyAndyJS said:"Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 search crowdsourced by U.S. firm
Internet users can search for the missing plane in satellite images of ocean"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-crowdsourced-by-u-s-firm-1.2568677?cmp=rss
This Tomnod crowdsourced satellite pic is causing a big twitter flutter at present:
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1103537
Is it MH370 or a ship?
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.0 -
'poutercompouter2 said:
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.AveryLP said:
AndyAndyJS said:"Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 search crowdsourced by U.S. firm
Internet users can search for the missing plane in satellite images of ocean"
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-crowdsourced-by-u-s-firm-1.2568677?cmp=rss
This Tomnod crowdsourced satellite pic is causing a big twitter flutter at present:
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1103537
Is it MH370 or a ship?
We have found something on which we can agree!
But enough there to warrant an expert opinion.
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International airline pilot Karlene Petitt gives her theory on MH370:
"My Theory:
I think the flight deck was compromised. The terrorists turned the transponder off. They told the captain to fly the plane toward a different city. Hong Kong comes to mind, but they could have turned back to Singapore, or head anywhere in range with one mission in mind: Create another 911 event.
I believe that captain initially followed their directions and when he realized what was about to happen, he put the plane into the ocean to save thousands of lives on the ground. If I were in that seat and they decided they didn't need me anymore, I would click off the autopilot and push the nose over in descent during my final breath.
The reason we cannot find this plane is we are looking in the wrong place.
The search crew should draw a line from the point of disappearance, incorporating the turning radius of the plane, to all major cities that could have been a target. Then they need to take the trajectory with the speed and altitude and look in those locations with a 30 mile width."
http://karlenepetitt.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/mh-370-time-to-speculate.html?m=1
https://mobile.twitter.com/KarlenePetitt0
