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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » March’s Guardian ICM Poll is out

The March ICM phone poll for the Guardian is out, there’s some cheer for the Lib Dems and the Tories. The Lib Dems have regained third place from UKIP with the Gold Standard of polling.

Read the full story here

JackW

The first shall be the last

compouter2

Err....Show me the crossover!

Socrates

Let's hope the EU debate gives UKIP more coverage.

Morris_Dancer

Not too much change. Lib Dems must be happy to be ahead of UKIP, though. One wonders how much the debate will change things.

JackW

compouter2 said:

Err....Show me the crossover!

Lovely looking squirrel running along the goal bar ....

BobaFett

@TSE

Point of order: It's less than fourteen months to the election, not fifteen.

But still a bad poll for Labour.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fett, fewer*.

TheScreamingEagles

BobaFett said:

@TSE

Point of order: It's less than fourteen months to the election, not fifteen.

But still a bad poll for Labour.

Pedant.

Just for you, I've changed it to

with fewer than fifteen months to go until the election

compouter2

JackW said:

compouter2 said:

Err....Show me the crossover!

Lovely looking squirrel running along the goal bar ....

First rule of PB, any poll that is good for the Tories is relevant and is commented about, any poll that is not.........look, squirrel. We all know the rules.

compouter2

Lets play the spin game - "they will be happy at the Labour Party that with fewer than fifteen months to go until the election, their percentage for the purposes of comparison, is the joint highest they have received from ICM in the last twelve months".

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

BobaFett said:

@TSE

Point of order: It's less than fourteen months to the election, not fifteen.

But still a bad poll for Labour.

Pedant.

Just for you, I've changed it to

with fewer than fifteen months to go until the election

Actually being pedantastic you're both incorrect.

The 2015 general election is scheduled for 7th May but may be held up to two months later should the PM invoke the SI of the Act and if approved by both Houses of Parliament.

Nice squirrels ....

anotherDave

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

AlastairMeeks

It's just one poll. It doesn't seem too far away from the Populus polling run, or from a lot of the YouGov polls though.

There's something for almost every party in these figures. The Conservatives will be delighted to be as high as 35%, Labour will be delighted to remain on 38% and the Lib Dems will be delighted to have recovered third place (albeit with their most favourable pollsters). And UKIP will tell themselves that it's just one poll: which it is.

Mick_Pork

Clegg's 'Elvis Bus Pass Party' doing a tiny bit better and the kippers doing a bit worse.

Which would be just more MOE noise were it not for the fact that the kippers have simply failed so far to repeat the rise that preceded last May's local elections. Even worse for them, Farage somehow hasn't managed to capitalise on Cammie's Cast Iron Immigration pledge blowing up in his face.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

It's worth noting though that although the kippers have failed to repeat the solid rise upwards of last year the fact is they stilll finished last year up on where they started in 2013 so their level isn't that different to what it was this time last year. What they don't have is any momentum upwards yet.

An amusing irony then that it's calamity Clegg who's thrown Farage the lifeline of yet more publicity at the debate. It's usually Cammie, Osbrowne and Crosby that manage to boost the kippers fortunes with their incompetent 'master strategies' just like they did last May.

AlastairMeeks

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

taffys

We all know the rules.

Are we reading the same website? for me PB's headers for the last six months could have been renamed '100 reasons why the tories can't win'. And, given the polls and the election results, that is exactly how it should be.

Therefore, any poll that cuts across that narrative in any way is bound to be commented on.

BobaFett

@JJ FPT

This argument advanced by the privatisation fetishists (among whom I realise you are not) that the only way to get taxpayers to pay for the railways with their own money is to pay a private sector firm with, erm, taxpayers' money to beg them for even more money is both mind-bending, and bloody thin.

BR may have had a problem with lobbying for cash but, that ought not mean any public operator would. How do the very many countries who successfully retain their trains in the public sector cope without hiring a professional beggar?

AndyJS

Interesting poll. Slightly difficult to believe the Tories are only 2 points down on 2010 at this stage.

BobaFett

TheScreamingEagles said:

BobaFett said:

@TSE

Point of order: It's less than fourteen months to the election, not fifteen.

But still a bad poll for Labour.

Pedant.

Just for you, I've changed it to

with fewer than fifteen months to go until the election

Great. How about, "with still well over a year to go to secure their surge, the Tories are sitting in Labour's slipstream, wisely ensuring they don't peak too early, saving their fight for the ring".

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Fett, on slipstream: it's been suggested some may prefer to trundle around (in F1) in another's slipstream to reduce the amount of fuel burnt off.

The fuel load will be tricky, especially at certain tracks (such as Bahrain).

JackW

compouter2 said:

Lets play the spin game - "they will be happy at the Labour Party that with fewer than fifteen months to go until the election, their percentage for the purposes of comparison, is the joint highest they have received from ICM in the last twelve months".

Alternatively ....

Let's spin Ed Balls on a roasting spit .... medium rare .... much like the Shadow Chancellors accurate economic forecasts.

Sizzle .. sizzle .. crackle .. crackle ..

AndyJS

With ElectoralCalculus, this poll puts Labour over the top - but only by 14 seats:

Lab 340
Con 264
LD 21

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=35&TVCON=&LAB=38&TVLAB=&LIB=12&TVLIB=&UKIP=3.17&region=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--

Ishmael_X

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Fett, fewer*.

No, less. He is talking about a quantity (of time) which he happens to quantify in months, not about months as discrete entities. You wouldn't say "fifteen months is fewer than two years", you'd say "less than two years".

Substantively, with a three point lead at this stage of the game Labour must surely wake up to the fact that they elected the lesser, or fewer, of the Miliband brothers.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. X, bit sleepy, but months are a discrete rather than continuous variable, which is how I read it.

I agree that time is a continuous variable.

JosiasJessop

BobaFett said:

@JJ FPT

This argument advanced by the privatisation fetishists (among whom I realise you are not) that the only way to get taxpayers to pay for the railways with their own money is to pay a private sector firm with, erm, taxpayers' money to beg them for even more money is both mind-bending, and bloody thin.

BR may have had a problem with lobbying for cash but, that ought not mean any public operator would. How do the very many countries who successfully retain their trains in the public sector cope without hiring a professional beggar?

I'm guessing (and it is just a guess) that they manage because a) the image of railway travel is different in those countries; b) the culture is different in those countries, and c) it is not necessarily much better - apparently non-TGV travel in France can be terrible.

But the point remains: BR was starved of funds. I fail to see any evidence that the required funding would have arrived in anything like the scale it did except for privatisation. Perhaps you are right and it would; however that goes against the previous forty years of experience after the 1955 modernisation plan.

In the past I've talked extensively to some BR operations bods, and they all lambasted the way BR had to interact with the government. Thatcher's government perversely helped that a little by not caring about the railways and therefore allowing them to get on with what they wanted to a large degree. It should be noted that one of the best organisational changes to happen on BR occurred during her watch - sectorisation, which afaicr was fully a railway initiative.

Mick_Pork

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

It rose steadily across all the pollsters before last May's local elections once you cut out the noise of the outliers.

As for the 'recovery' spin, Balls and Osbrowne are both crap and pretty toxic while if the recovery is only felt in one or two places then most voters won't be rewarding anyone.

Danny565

This poll is pretty much exactly what I expect the election result to be, except perhaps with Lib/Lab/Con all pulled down a % each with all that going to UKIP.

Danny565

AndyJS said:

Interesting poll. Slightly difficult to believe the Tories are only 2 points down on 2010 at this stage.

Or to look at it another way, slightly difficult to believe the Tories are only 4 points up on their absolute nadir of the 1997 election result.

My point: "only" being a bit down on their poor 2010 performance is not good at all, as they needed to be building up support and pulling in people who haven't voted for them for 20+ years throughout this parliament.

Ishmael_X

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. X, bit sleepy, but months are a discrete rather than continuous variable, which is how I read it.

I agree that time is a continuous variable.

Mr Dancer

I thought true discrete variables had no "in between" states; you can drive your car in 4th or 5th gear but not 4.5th gear, whereas you can have a month and a half.

Carola

Very sad news (to me, anyway) about Bob Crow. I liked him.

AlastairMeeks

Danny565 said:

This poll is pretty much exactly what I expect the election result to be, except perhaps with Lib/Lab/Con all pulled down a % each with all that going to UKIP.

If I were guessing the next election result today, I'd guess Con 37, Lab 35, LD 15 and UKIP 7. I expect that would give Labour a reasonable seats lead. But the future is unwritten and much can still change.

JackW

One has to admire the sang-froid of both Labour and SNP wallers.

As they edge up the steps of the electoral scaffold with only the finest gallows humour to protect them from the drop of the voters scorn, their doughty countenance is an example to us all.

No show of emotion from Labour folk as a tiny lead begins to disappear quicker than OGH's hairline and could there be more stoic individuals then the YES bods as the referendum is lost to them by twenty points or more.

Such is their suffering, such is their hurt, such is their humiliation ....

Such is life ....

No_Offence_Alan

compouter2 said:

Err....Show me the crossover!

Crossover occurred yesterday. In the latest Yougov poll in Europe, "In" now leads "Out" for the first time since January 2013.

anotherDave

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

Life_ina_market_town

JosiasJessop said:

But the point remains: BR was starved of funds. I fail to see any evidence that the required funding would have arrived in anything like the scale it did except for privatisation. Perhaps you are right and it would; however that goes against the previous forty years of experience after the 1955 modernisation plan.

In the past I've talked extensively to some BR operations bods, and they all lambasted the way BR had to interact with the government. Thatcher's government perversely helped that a little by not caring about the railways and therefore allowing them to get on with what they wanted to a large degree. It should be noted that one of the best organisational changes to happen on BR occurred during her watch - sectorisation, which afaicr was fully a railway initiative

Isn't Charles Loft's argument, who is the only serious historian of the period to escape from transport antiquarianism, that the results of Beeching made British Rail the most efficient railway operator in Western Europe? He is supported by no less weighty an authority than Sir Brian Harrison.

AlastairMeeks

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

I think they were finding a group of people who had not considered voting UKIP before at the general election who in the wake of an impressive and widely reported local election result had reconsidered. That's not all that surprising for a fringe party.

JackW

No_Offence_Alan said:

compouter2 said:

Err....Show me the crossover!

Crossover occurred yesterday. In the latest Yougov poll in Europe, "In" now leads "Out" for the first time since January 2013.

Ah .... Euro Squirrels - Genus - Scuriolus Cleggus Debatum

Scrapheap_as_was

ICM = that'll do.

Banked and waiting for the Budget now hoping it doesn't fall apart.

GIN1138

Nice poll for the coalition.

anotherDave

Mick_Pork said:

Clegg's 'Elvis Bus Pass Party' doing a tiny bit better and the kippers doing a bit worse.

Which would be just more MOE noise were it not for the fact that the kippers have simply failed so far to repeat the rise that preceded last May's local elections. Even worse for them, Farage somehow hasn't managed to capitalise on Cammie's Cast Iron Immigration pledge blowing up in his face.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

It's worth noting though that although the kippers have failed to repeat the solid rise upwards of last year the fact is they stilll finished last year up on where they started in 2013 so their level isn't that different to what it was this time last year. What they don't have is any momentum upwards yet.

An amusing irony then that it's calamity Clegg who's thrown Farage the lifeline of yet more publicity at the debate. It's usually Cammie, Osbrowne and Crosby that manage to boost the kippers fortunes with their incompetent 'master strategies' just like they did last May.

UKIP Watch think a UKIP surge is still likely:

" We know from research across Europe that voters in most EU countries defect to more Eurosceptic parties at European elections, and regardless of the local political conditions. Moreover, studies also show how this switch of loyalty is not simply a response to ‘hard’ concerns over the economic cost of EU membership, but is motivated just as strongly, if not more so, by so-called ‘soft’ concerns over threats to national identity, values and the national community.

This matters because with immigration now back at the top of the British political agenda, and the increasing debate over Britain’s EU membership, the elections in May will actually offer Ukip a more fertile climate than the campaigns in 2004 and 2009.

The eurozone and financial crises have continued to erode public support for the EU, while voter dissatisfaction with how the main parties have handled these two issues –immigration and the economy- is intense. Even in the absence of a scandal, Ukip will campaign under very favourable conditions, and have plenty of potential to surge once again. "

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100260326/before-you-predict-defeat-for-ukip-in-the-euro-elections-remember-its-a-party-with-a-history-of-late-surges/

But it's worth noting that not all pollsters show UKIP support falling away after May 2013.

http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-25th-february-2014

anotherDave

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

I think they were finding a group of people who had not considered voting UKIP before at the general election who in the wake of an impressive and widely reported local election result had reconsidered. That's not all that surprising for a fringe party.

So you think UKIP support doubled in a month, and by coincidence, it then matched their local election vote share.

JackW

No news of Nick Palmer in Moscow. I'm a wee bit worried ....

Has he been turned again ?!?

Sean_F

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

Local and national elections are different beasts. ICM's polling techniques give UKIP the lowest score of any polling company. Despite that, UKIP are 2% up with ICM, compared to March 2013.

AlastairMeeks

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

I think they were finding a group of people who had not considered voting UKIP before at the general election who in the wake of an impressive and widely reported local election result had reconsidered. That's not all that surprising for a fringe party.

So you think UKIP support doubled in a month, and by coincidence, it then matched their local election vote share.

22 =/= 18

And yes, I think UKIP support had a brief surge in the wake of the local election results that has since slowly dwindled. I expect we'll see something similar this year too.

Sean_F

No_Offence_Alan said:

compouter2 said:

Err....Show me the crossover!

Crossover occurred yesterday. In the latest Yougov poll in Europe, "In" now leads "Out" for the first time since January 2013.

Yougov's series has been quite volatile. Since the start of 2013, Out has led by 6% on average, but that has ranged from a 6% lead for In, to a 17% lead for Out.

AndyJS

David Learmount:

"Malaysia is handling MH370 incompetently

It’s bad enough for a widebody jet to go missing with 239 people on board, but then for the responsible country’s government and aviation agencies to handle the associated information with total incompetence is unforgivable. China, which may have lost more of its nationals on board than any other single country, certainly thinks so."

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/learmount/2014/03/malaysia-handling-mh370-incompetently

CarlottaVance

JackW said:

compouter2 said:

Lets play the spin game - "they will be happy at the Labour Party that with fewer than fifteen months to go until the election, their percentage for the purposes of comparison, is the joint highest they have received from ICM in the last twelve months".

Alternatively ....

Let's spin Ed Balls on a roasting spit .... medium rare .... much like the Shadow Chancellors accurate economic forecasts.

Sizzle .. sizzle .. crackle .. crackle ..

Oi!

That metaphor has been reserved for September 19th! (Different cast)

Meanwhile:

Independent Scotland's deficit '£3 billion worse than Alex Salmond's worst case scenario'
The Treasury has published an analysis comparing the economic claims made by the Scottish Government with figures published by its own economists and independent analysts.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10690999/Independent-Scotlands-deficit-3-billion-worse-than-Alex-Salmonds-worst-case-scenario.html

Sean_F

Mick_Pork said:

Clegg's 'Elvis Bus Pass Party' doing a tiny bit better and the kippers doing a bit worse.

Which would be just more MOE noise were it not for the fact that the kippers have simply failed so far to repeat the rise that preceded last May's local elections. Even worse for them, Farage somehow hasn't managed to capitalise on Cammie's Cast Iron Immigration pledge blowing up in his face.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

It's worth noting though that although the kippers have failed to repeat the solid rise upwards of last year the fact is they stilll finished last year up on where they started in 2013 so their level isn't that different to what it was this time last year. What they don't have is any momentum upwards yet.

An amusing irony then that it's calamity Clegg who's thrown Farage the lifeline of yet more publicity at the debate. It's usually Cammie, Osbrowne and Crosby that manage to boost the kippers fortunes with their incompetent 'master strategies' just like they did last May.

In general UKIP's ratings are slightly up on March 2013.

AndyJS

O/T:

iOs 7.1 has been released.

anotherDave

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

I think they were finding a group of people who had not considered voting UKIP before at the general election who in the wake of an impressive and widely reported local election result had reconsidered. That's not all that surprising for a fringe party.

So you think UKIP support doubled in a month, and by coincidence, it then matched their local election vote share.

22 =/= 18

And yes, I think UKIP support had a brief surge in the wake of the local election results that has since slowly dwindled. I expect we'll see something similar this year too.

Allowing for variation in NEV and ICM calculations, I think 22==18.

I find it bizarre that you think think UKIP support could double in a month. Isn't it more likely that ICM were wrong?

Life_ina_market_town

Does anyone else get the impression that there is more than meets the eye to today's announcement by the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and Environment, Richard Lochhead MSP, that the Scottish Government intends to introduce legislation to repeal in Scotland the Crown exemption under section 42 of the Radioactive Substances Act 1993? It must be questionable whether such a proposal is within the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament*, and a cynic might think that the Scottish Government intends to engineer a constitutional dispute over the question ahead of the independence referendum.

*Subject, of course, to the all important pending decision of the Supreme Court in the Attorney General's Reference on the Agricultural Sector (Wales) Bill.

MikeK

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

I think they were finding a group of people who had not considered voting UKIP before at the general election who in the wake of an impressive and widely reported local election result had reconsidered. That's not all that surprising for a fringe party.

So you think UKIP support doubled in a month, and by coincidence, it then matched their local election vote share.

22 =/= 18

And yes, I think UKIP support had a brief surge in the wake of the local election results that has since slowly dwindled. I expect we'll see something similar this year too.

Allowing for variation in NEV and ICM calculations, I think 22==18.

I find it bizarre that you think think UKIP support could double in a month. Isn't it more likely that ICM were wrong?

Some people find it hard to admit that ICM was dead wrong about past UKIP polls/results, and are dead wrong again now. I am heartened on hearing from my son, today, that many in his village in Somerset are thinking of voting UKIP this coming May.

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

22 =/= 18

And yes, I think UKIP support had a brief surge in the wake of the local election results that has since slowly dwindled. I expect we'll see something similar this year too.

Allowing for variation in NEV and ICM calculations, I think 22==18.

I find it bizarre that you think think UKIP support could double in a month. Isn't it more likely that ICM were wrong?

At the time of ICM's 9% UKIP figure in April 2013 , Yougov's daily polls had UKIP consistently at 10 to 12 % little different . These polls were GE voting intention polls NOT council election VI polls .

MarkSenior

MikeK said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

too.

Allowing for variation in NEV and ICM calculations, I think 22==18.

I find it bizarre that you think think UKIP support could double in a month. Isn't it more likely that ICM were wrong?

Some people find it hard to admit that ICM was dead wrong about past UKIP polls/results, and are dead wrong again now. I am heartened on hearing from my son, today, that many in his village in Somerset are thinking of voting UKIP this coming May.

There are no local elections in any part of Somerset this May .

AlastairMeeks

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

I think they were finding a group of people who had not considered voting UKIP before at the general election who in the wake of an impressive and widely reported local election result had reconsidered. That's not all that surprising for a fringe party.

So you think UKIP support doubled in a month, and by coincidence, it then matched their local election vote share.

22 =/= 18

And yes, I think UKIP support had a brief surge in the wake of the local election results that has since slowly dwindled. I expect we'll see something similar this year too.

Allowing for variation in NEV and ICM calculations, I think 22==18.

I find it bizarre that you think think UKIP support could double in a month. Isn't it more likely that ICM were wrong?

No. This sort of thing happens with fringe parties that achieve notable successes. Especially when there are a lot of pissed off voters looking for a home for their pissed off votes.

And no, 22 really does not equal 18. That's one of the facts I'm more confident about asserting.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. X, must admit I haven't heard that before. Reminds me of the tedium of NOIR, though.

anotherDave

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

anotherDave said:

ICM poll, April 2013: UKIP 9%
Local elections May 2013: UKIP 22%
ICM poll, May 2013: UKIP 18%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013

Does anyone actually think UKIP's support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

ICM were polling for something different: what the parties would tally at the next general election.

Fine, ignore the election result. Just look at the ICM numbers.

Do you think UKIP support doubled in one month, or were ICM just not finding UKIP supporters?

I think they were finding a group of people who had not considered voting UKIP before at the general election who in the wake of an impressive and widely reported local election result had reconsidered. That's not all that surprising for a fringe party.

So you think UKIP support doubled in a month, and by coincidence, it then matched their local election vote share.

22 =/= 18

And yes, I think UKIP support had a brief surge in the wake of the local election results that has since slowly dwindled. I expect we'll see something similar this year too.

Allowing for variation in NEV and ICM calculations, I think 22==18.

I find it bizarre that you think think UKIP support could double in a month. Isn't it more likely that ICM were wrong?

No. This sort of thing happens with fringe parties that achieve notable successes. Especially when there are a lot of pissed off voters looking for a home for their pissed off votes.

And no, 22 really does not equal 18. That's one of the facts I'm more confident about asserting.

Polls typically have a margin of error of +/- 3%. One pollster finding 22% and another finding 18% are within that.

ICM's Nick Sparrow was kind enough to write an article for PB recently. He said:

"The established conventions for question design in market research would be to ask for a spontaneous response, i.e without mentioning any possible choices, or prompt with all the main alternatives. By this yardstick it becomes difficult to justify continuing to omit mention of UKIP "

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/07/take-polls-with-large-pinch-of-salt-do-not-consume-in-excess/

So he thinks ICM might be making a mistake. Yet you find it inconceivable.

AlastairMeeks

I don't find it inconceivable. But there's a simpler, more likely explanation. You just don't like it.

And I really don't need guidance on not taking polls seriously. No one on this site has less respect for polls than me.

anotherDave

antifrank said:

I don't find it inconceivable. But there's a simpler, more likely explanation. You just don't like it.

And I really don't need guidance on not taking polls seriously. No one on this site has less respect for polls than me.

?

The options are:
1. ICM was wrong.
2. UKIP's support doubled in one month.

I don't think option two is simpler, or more likely, than option one.

OldKingCole

Below par score by England. Depends on the bowlers now!!!!!

Tykejohnno

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

BREAKING: Ed Miliband rules out matching Cameron's pledge to give UK an in/out EU referendum no matter what; http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5501806/ed-miliband-rules-out-in-out-referendum-eu-membership.html

TheScreamingEagles

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

BREAKING: Ed Miliband rules out matching Cameron's pledge to give UK an in/out EU referendum no matter what;

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5501806/ed-miliband-rules-out-in-out-referendum-eu-membership.html …

TheScreamingEagles

OldKingCole said:

Below par score by England. Depends on the bowlers now!!!!!

Our bowlers include Jade Dernbach.

We're doomed, doomed.

Scott_P

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

BREAKING: Ed Miliband rules out matching Cameron's pledge to give UK an in/out EU referendum no matter what; http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5501806/ed-miliband-rules-out-in-out-referendum-eu-membership.html

The FT will be delighted to see that...

@GeorgeWParker: Yes, Ed Miliband reveals all on his long-awaited Europe strategy and referendum plan exclusively in FT tomorrow. Online before 10pm

Stark_Dawning

An interesting poll. Given that the political hot potato of recent weeks was Nannygate and Brokenshire's 'worst political speech in the history of the human race' one might have expected a UKIP surge on the back of the immigration issue. The other possibility is that an attack on the Metropolitan Elite didn't go down as badly with the non-Metropolitan Elite as the Metropolitan Elite in Telegraph and elsewhere assured us it would.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

BREAKING: Ed Miliband rules out matching Cameron's pledge to give UK an in/out EU referendum no matter what;

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5501806/ed-miliband-rules-out-in-out-referendum-eu-membership.html …

Well, IIRC correctly many UKIP voters - the latgest group of which remains former Con voters - have been pretty clear they won't vote for Cameron no matter what, and Lab has shored up its supporters to do anything to avoid Cameron remaining as leader of the largest party again, so Labour don't really have anything to lose by ruling out a referendum I suspect. Many in the party may not like it, but not enough to rock the boat, and any boost to UKIP will hurt the Tories before it hurts Labour. So at least this way Labour have set out their position clearly and cannot be accused of fomenting uncertainty or whatever that line is.

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

I don't find it inconceivable. But there's a simpler, more likely explanation. You just don't like it.

And I really don't need guidance on not taking polls seriously. No one on this site has less respect for polls than me.

?

The options are:
1. ICM was wrong.
2. UKIP's support doubled in one month.

I don't think option two is simpler, or more likely, than option one.

1 ICM was little different from Yougov polls for UKIP at the same time .
2 The UKIP support went up sharply and temporarily in response to the publicity they received after their CC results . This is similar to past increases in Lib Dem support after by election successes see after Brent East in 2003 LD VI went up from 22 to 31 % in ICM and from 20 to 30% with Yougov .

Tykejohnno

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

“My priorities for government after the next election are very different from those of the Conservatives." Ed on EU; http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage

anotherDave

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

BREAKING: Ed Miliband rules out matching Cameron's pledge to give UK an in/out EU referendum no matter what; http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5501806/ed-miliband-rules-out-in-out-referendum-eu-membership.html

Is that bad for the LD's "party of in" campaign?

anotherDave

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

I don't find it inconceivable. But there's a simpler, more likely explanation. You just don't like it.

And I really don't need guidance on not taking polls seriously. No one on this site has less respect for polls than me.

?

The options are:
1. ICM was wrong.
2. UKIP's support doubled in one month.

I don't think option two is simpler, or more likely, than option one.

1 ICM was little different from Yougov polls for UKIP at the same time .
2 The UKIP support went up sharply and temporarily in response to the publicity they received after their CC results . This is similar to past increases in Lib Dem support after by election successes see after Brent East in 2003 LD VI went up from 22 to 31 % in ICM and from 20 to 30% with Yougov .

ICM and YouGov showed one picture for UKIP in April 2013, Survation and Opinium showed another.

Scott_P

@bbclaurak: Also on #newsnight - what will Ed Miliband offer, or not, on EU referendum, and what really happened at the Co-op? 2230 BBC2

Stark_Dawning

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

BREAKING: Ed Miliband rules out matching Cameron's pledge to give UK an in/out EU referendum no matter what; http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5501806/ed-miliband-rules-out-in-out-referendum-eu-membership.html

No surprise there. Mrs Toynbee and co. had Ed's guts for garters after his one flirtation with Euro-scepticism, during the EU budget vote, and it was clear at the time that he wouldn't revisiting any of that.

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

I don't find it inconceivable. But there's a simpler, more likely explanation. You just don't like it.

And I really don't need guidance on not taking polls seriously. No one on this site has less respect for polls than me.

?

The options are:
1. ICM was wrong.
2. UKIP's support doubled in one month.

I don't think option two is simpler, or more likely, than option one.

1 ICM was little different from Yougov polls for UKIP at the same time .
2 The UKIP support went up sharply and temporarily in response to the publicity they received after their CC results . This is similar to past increases in Lib Dem support after by election successes see after Brent East in 2003 LD VI went up from 22 to 31 % in ICM and from 20 to 30% with Yougov .

ICM and YouGov showed one picture for UKIP in April 2013, Survation and Opinium showed another.

ICM and Yougov with their long track record v Opinium and Survation with their lack of one - not a difficult choice .

compouter2

Don't know if it has been mentioned on here today, however, IES Breckland School in Brandon, Mr Goves first for-profit Free School has been put into special measures by Ofsted and rated inadequate. Wonder how cost effective that school has been?

anotherDave

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

I don't find it inconceivable. But there's a simpler, more likely explanation. You just don't like it.

And I really don't need guidance on not taking polls seriously. No one on this site has less respect for polls than me.

?

The options are:
1. ICM was wrong.
2. UKIP's support doubled in one month.

I don't think option two is simpler, or more likely, than option one.

1 ICM was little different from Yougov polls for UKIP at the same time .
2 The UKIP support went up sharply and temporarily in response to the publicity they received after their CC results . This is similar to past increases in Lib Dem support after by election successes see after Brent East in 2003 LD VI went up from 22 to 31 % in ICM and from 20 to 30% with Yougov .

ICM and YouGov showed one picture for UKIP in April 2013, Survation and Opinium showed another.

ICM and Yougov with their long track record v Opinium and Survation with their lack of one - not a difficult choice .

Yes, the conversion was of course about why ICM offered a different UKIP picture in April and May. Why their UKIP picture changed to resemble that offered by Opinium and Survation. But hey-ho.

ICM FTW!

anotherDave

SeanT said:

Was it me recommending the Mini earlier?

Hmm. Maybe scrap that.

On examination, the new 2014 Mini - the 3rd generation - has crossed the line from pert and cheeky to cartoonish and weird. And maybe downright ugly.

http://static.autoexpress.co.uk/sites/autoexpressuk/files/styles/article_main_image/public/mini-hatchback-2014-front-quarter-static.jpg?itok=fdscWNZl

Horribly fussy front end. And the whole profile is ruined:

http://lh5.ggpht.com/-kyfNjpVxaiw/UdGlQiHJ-fI/AAAAAAANSRY/ZSuthJarWMI/s1600-h/2014-Mini-Cooper-S-4Carscoops%255B3%255D.jpg

Ugh.

Looks OK to me. The mk3 Clio however? Tragedy!

compouter2

Ofsted reported of the for-profit school “The school’s own evaluation of the quality of teaching and student achievement is inaccurate. The school has not been able to improve because school leaders have not assessed the school’s performance adequately or devised strategies to improve it.

“The management of teachers’ performance is ineffective. Improvement targets for individual teachers lack precision. Leaders rarely check whether teachers are making progress towards meeting their targets.”

I assume the company running it said "Feck the report....show me the money".

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

antifrank said:

I don't find it inconceivable. But there's a simpler, more likely explanation. You just don't like it.

And I really don't need guidance on not taking polls seriously. No one on this site has less respect for polls than me.

?

The options are:
1. ICM was wrong.
2. UKIP's support doubled in one month.

I don't think option two is simpler, or more likely, than option one.

1 ICM was little different from Yougov polls for UKIP at the same time .
2 The UKIP support went up sharply and temporarily in response to the publicity they received after their CC results . This is similar to past increases in Lib Dem support after by election successes see after Brent East in 2003 LD VI went up from 22 to 31 % in ICM and from 20 to 30% with Yougov .

ICM and YouGov showed one picture for UKIP in April 2013, Survation and Opinium showed another.

ICM and Yougov with their long track record v Opinium and Survation with their lack of one - not a difficult choice .

Yes, the conversion was of course about why ICM offered a different UKIP picture in April and May. Why their UKIP picture changed to resemble that offered by Opinium and Survation. But hey-ho.

ICM FTW!

And the reason for ICM giving a different UKIP picture in April and May 2013 has been explained quite simply . As already posted go back to the September 2003 polls and look at the Lib Dem polling in reaction to the Lib Dem win in the Brent East by election .

MarqueeMark

Why does Ed Miliband not trust the voters with the vote?

Scott_P

MarqueeMark said:

Why does Ed Miliband not trust the voters with the vote?

Because last time he trusted voters, they voted for his brother?

Anorak

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:

Why does Ed Miliband not trust the voters with the vote?

Because last time he trusted voters, they voted for his brother?

If ever you needed an example of the value of a true one-man-one-vote democracy...

compouter2

Further comment on Mr Gove flagship for-profit school from Oftsed who has classed it inadequate and placed it in special measures after it's first inspection "“Too many students have experienced frequent changes of teacher. In autumn 2013, the departure of some key staff, including the Principal, seriously disrupted the education provided by the school.”

It also said teaching and behaviour was inadequate and added: “Too many students fail to make sufficient progress and they do not attain the standards of which they are capable.”

Would Mr Gove shut his own flagship school down if no improvements were made or do you think he will just throw even more money at it?

kle4

compouter2 said:

Further comment on Mr Gove flagship for-profit school from Oftsed who has classed it inadequate and placed it in special measures after it's first inspection "“Too many students have experienced frequent changes of teacher. In autumn 2013, the departure of some key staff, including the Principal, seriously disrupted the education provided by the school.”

It also said teaching and behaviour was inadequate and added: “Too many students fail to make sufficient progress and they do not attain the standards of which they are capable.”

Would Mr Gove shut his own flagship school down if no improvements were made or do you think he will just throw even more money at it?

Moneymoneymoneymoneymoneymoneymoney

Actually, on second thoughts, governments of all stripes seem to reserve the totally irresponsible throwing money after it approach when it comes to IT projects more than anything else. Oh, and anything to do with defence procurement. The rest is hard to predict when that approach will be taken.

compouter2

kle4 said:

compouter2 said:

Further comment on Mr Gove flagship for-profit school from Oftsed who has classed it inadequate and placed it in special measures after it's first inspection "“Too many students have experienced frequent changes of teacher. In autumn 2013, the departure of some key staff, including the Principal, seriously disrupted the education provided by the school.”

It also said teaching and behaviour was inadequate and added: “Too many students fail to make sufficient progress and they do not attain the standards of which they are capable.”

Would Mr Gove shut his own flagship school down if no improvements were made or do you think he will just throw even more money at it?

Moneymoneymoneymoneymoneymoneymoney

Doubt he would tell us if he was throwing even more money at it and would fight any FOI requests to find out if he were, to protect the people working there.....obviously.

Tykejohnno

For all ye hodges fans ;-)

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges · 30 secs
That noise you hear is the champagne corks popping in No.10 at Ed Miliband's decision to rule out a Euro referendum

SquareRoot

Compouter, on the balance of probabilities and not having had time to read any of your comments ...
Goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal !!!

Apart from that, Labour are fecked.

volcanopete

On Europe,Ed is clearly concerned with the uncertainty a referendum would create for UK business.It must be remembered too Europe is way down the list of importance to them.It's only a minority issue for voters but for Tories it's the great obsession,which is why they keep on banging on about it.
Some people like referenda but so did Hitler.

Tykejohnno

Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband · 2 mins
Britain's future lies in the EU. The Tories can't be trusted on Europe and will damage the national interest. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/884d1a70-a92f-11e3-9b71-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2vgs8ZVuH …

Tykejohnno

Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband · 3 mins
The next Labour govt will legislate for a new lock: no transfer of powers to the EU without an in/out referendum. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/884d1a70-a92f-11e3-9b71-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2vgs8ZVuH …

SquareRoot

Furthermore, as someone right of centre, I feel immense sadness that someone(in fact anyone)( like Bob Crow) should die so young. My wife was taken from me at 57 so I understand how it affects people. I many not have agreed with Crow, but may he rest in peace and may the family find peace.

Tykejohnno

Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband · 2 mins
The next Labour government will work to make Europe work better for Britain. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/884d1a70-a92f-11e3-9b71-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2vgs8ZVuH …

Scott_P

SeanT said:

It was always PAINFULLY obvious that Miliband would never offer an in/out referendum.

It's a 50/50 chance...

Tykejohnno

Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole · 45 secs
Ed, with a straight face, "Labour’s position on Europe, by contrast, is clear"

Tykejohnno

Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole · 1 min
Here is Ed's 'clear' position on EU: Europe needs to work better for Britain. Britain needs to work more effectively for change". Got that?

compouter2

SquareRoot said:

Compouter, on the balance of probabilities and not having had time to read any of your comments ...
Goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal !!!

Apart from that, Labour are fecked.

No, this is a Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooal!

Local Tory MP visiting IES Breckland School meeting the soon to be leaving principal "The school has received very strong support from Matthew Hancock and from the Education Secretary Michael Gove from the beginning and Matthew is very proud to see it open so successfully."

18 months later classed as inadequate and in special measures.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--1MkNOFbbEg/Uop7Rgyw2DI/AAAAAAAAB88/gVcITE_6wfU/s1600/hancockzand.jpg

AlastairMeeks

Ed Miliband has stupidly triangulated on the EU. Comfortably the worst decision of his leadership.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Antifrank, why do you say that (the worst decision bit, not the triangulation)?

Tykejohnno

Sunder Katwala ‏@sundersays · 3 mins
Leeds Utd, having lost 1-5 at home on Saturday, are 0-4 down at home to Reading with half an hour to go ... + chaotic takeover. Sad to see

Sad to see ,not from my point of view ;-)

MarqueeMark

Nigel Farage must be utterly delighted. Go get them Labour eurosceptic votes, Nige!

SquareRoot

compouter2 said:

SquareRoot said:

Compouter, on the balance of probabilities and not having had time to read any of your comments ...
Goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal !!!

Apart from that, Labour are fecked.

No, this is a Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooal!

Local Tory MP visiting IES Breckland School meeting the soon to be leaving principal "The school has received very strong support from Matthew Hancock and from the Education Secretary Michael Gove from the beginning and Matthew is very proud to see it open so successfully."

18 months later classed as inadequate and in special measures.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--1MkNOFbbEg/Uop7Rgyw2DI/AAAAAAAAB88/gVcITE_6wfU/s1600/hancockzand.jpg

If you want a real "own" goal, I feel sure Scott P and others will supply numerous quotes about how Red ED thinks the idiot Hollande is the man to follow policy wise.. I mean the French economy is fucked and fucked directly as a result of Hollande's policies.. only now is he admitting it.