To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.
Agree, it's probably a ship.
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.
It is all a bit weird how it has just dissapeared without trace (up to now). No SOS, no distress call, nothing. Doesn't bode well for the families when the airlines are already offering them compensation.
Is it really likely to be a terrorist attack? Surely if some organisation was behind it then they would've wanted to publicly lay claim to it to drum up publicity?
International airline pilot Karlene Petitt gives her theory on MH370:
"My Theory:
I think the flight deck was compromised. The terrorists turned the transponder off. They told the captain to fly the plane toward a different city. Hong Kong comes to mind, but they could have turned back to Singapore, or head anywhere in range with one mission in mind: Create another 911 event.
I believe that captain initially followed their directions and when he realized what was about to happen, he put the plane into the ocean to save thousands of lives on the ground. If I were in that seat and they decided they didn't need me anymore, I would click off the autopilot and push the nose over in descent during my final breath.
The reason we cannot find this plane is we are looking in the wrong place.
The search crew should draw a line from the point of disappearance, incorporating the turning radius of the plane, to all major cities that could have been a target. Then they need to take the trajectory with the speed and altitude and look in those locations with a 30 mile width."
Norman Tebbit thinks hijacking is the most likely answer too.
"It is unlikely in the extreme that the aircraft suffered some catastrophic failure, as no debris has been found on its intended route. It now seems that it was under control but turned off its route and descended to a lower level. It is possible but very unlikely that one or both of the pilots became unhinged and that they were responsible. It is possible and more likely that one or more passengers – not necessarily those travelling on false passports – forced the pilots at gunpoint to do so and prevented them from making distress calls.
Sooner or later the remains of the aircraft will be found. Then the black boxes, the flight recorded and the cockpit voice recorded will give up their secrets and we shall find out what did happen."
Is it really likely to be a terrorist attack? Surely if some organisation was behind it then they would've wanted to publicly lay claim to it to drum up publicity?
Karlene Petitt answers that point: if it failed, as she theorises, they wouldn't want to claim responsibility. They'll try again at some point and want to remain anonymous until then.
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.
Agree, it's probably a ship.
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.
It is all a bit weird how it has just dissapeared without trace (up to now). No SOS, no distress call, nothing. Doesn't bode well for the families when the airlines are already offering them compensation.
In this day and age it is surprising that there is not continual information being relayed from the plane to a satellite or listening post. I imagine this disaster will spur the development of such technologies.
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.
Agree, it's probably a ship.
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.
It is all a bit weird how it has just dissapeared without trace (up to now). No SOS, no distress call, nothing. Doesn't bode well for the families when the airlines are already offering them compensation.
In this day and age it is surprising that there is not continual information being relayed from the plane to a satellite or listening post. I imagine this disaster will spur the development of such technologies.
Especially when passengers can often access real-time technologies in their seats.
IMO there should be cameras in the cockpit, with the pictures being relayed instantly to air traffic control.
International airline pilot Karlene Petitt gives her theory on MH370:
"My Theory:
I think the flight deck was compromised. The terrorists turned the transponder off. They told the captain to fly the plane toward a different city. Hong Kong comes to mind, but they could have turned back to Singapore, or head anywhere in range with one mission in mind: Create another 911 event.
I believe that captain initially followed their directions and when he realized what was about to happen, he put the plane into the ocean to save thousands of lives on the ground. If I were in that seat and they decided they didn't need me anymore, I would click off the autopilot and push the nose over in descent during my final breath.
The reason we cannot find this plane is we are looking in the wrong place.
The search crew should draw a line from the point of disappearance, incorporating the turning radius of the plane, to all major cities that could have been a target. Then they need to take the trajectory with the speed and altitude and look in those locations with a 30 mile width."
A bit too much imaginative speculation here, methinks.
The key question being addressed at the moment is whether the airline changed track and flew back over the North of the Malaysian peninsular.
This possibility is definitely being taken seriously as an extensive search and rescue operation is being conducted in the Malaccan Straights West of Malaysia as well as in the South China Sea, East of the peninsular, where the last (publicly?) known location was established.
The turn west theory is supported by villagers reporting unusual sounds of a low flying aeroplane at a time which would be consistent. It is also based on speculation that military radar has tracked the plane on this path.
On military radar detection, the Chief of the Royal Malaysian Air Force has just issued an official statement denying press reports that he stated the MH370 had been detected. But it is clear he is denying that he made the statement rather than that there is no radar evidence. His line was that official announcements will only be made after all facts have been verified.
If the Sky News speculation that decompression knocked out the crew is correct, then it is possible that, after making a turn, the plane would have continued on autopilot at a stable altitude until its fuel ran out (remember the golfer Payne Stewart incident, albeit in a Learjet). If Sky's speculation is right MH370 could be anywhere in the Indian ocean!
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.
Agree, it's probably a ship.
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.
It is all a bit weird how it has just dissapeared without trace (up to now). No SOS, no distress call, nothing. Doesn't bode well for the families when the airlines are already offering them compensation.
In this day and age it is surprising that there is not continual information being relayed from the plane to a satellite or listening post. I imagine this disaster will spur the development of such technologies.
Especially when passengers can often access real-time technologies in their seats.
IMO there should be cameras in the cockpit, with the pictures being relayed instantly to air traffic control.
Do you know if the plane was wifi enabled? If it was that would lend weight to the rapid disintegration theory, if no passenger had time to post to twitter or fb.
Andy JS & Rob D - It absolutely bamboozles me in this day and age with such advanced technology that a plane can literally dissappear into thin air and publically no one seems to have a clue what happened to it, where it is and what happened to the passengers. By the way there are loads of different theories in the comment section of Karlene Petitt blog, even UFO abduction.
How about this for confusion from the Malaysian authorities:
"On Monday, the civil aviation chief said five people checked in but did not board and their baggage was removed accordingly. On Tuesday, the inspector general of police said that everyone who was booked on to the flight had boarded - though he then contradicted himself by saying one person had missed the flight because they got the wrong day. Malaysia Airlines says that four people were booked but never checked in."
How about this for confusion from the Malaysian authorities:
"On Monday, the civil aviation chief said five people checked in but did not board and their baggage was removed accordingly. On Tuesday, the inspector general of police said that everyone who was booked on to the flight had boarded - though he then contradicted himself by saying one person had missed the flight because they got the wrong day. Malaysia Airlines says that four people were booked but never checked in."
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.
Agree, it's probably a ship.
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.
It is all a bit weird how it has just dissapeared without trace (up to now). No SOS, no distress call, nothing. Doesn't bode well for the families when the airlines are already offering them compensation.
In this day and age it is surprising that there is not continual information being relayed from the plane to a satellite or listening post. I imagine this disaster will spur the development of such technologies.
Especially when passengers can often access real-time technologies in their seats.
IMO there should be cameras in the cockpit, with the pictures being relayed instantly to air traffic control.
Do you know if the plane was wifi enabled? If it was that would lend weight to the rapid disintegration theory, if no passenger had time to post to twitter or fb.
"There’s considerable confusion around the theory that flight MH370 veered back towards Malaysia after it stopped communicating with ground controllers. The Malaysian air force chief, General Rodzali Daud, has been quoted as saying that the flight made a sharp left turn, and headed back across Malaysia and out over the Malacca strait.
The New York Times quotes Tengku Sariffuddin Tengku Ahmad, spokesman for the prime minister’s office, as contradicting that account. He said that senior military officials, with whom he had checked, said there was no no evidence that the plane had crossed back over the Malaysian peninsula, only that it may have attempted to do so."
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.
Agree, it's probably a ship.
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.
It is all a bit weird how it has just dissapeared without trace (up to now). No SOS, no distress call, nothing. Doesn't bode well for the families when the airlines are already offering them compensation.
In this day and age it is surprising that there is not continual information being relayed from the plane to a satellite or listening post. I imagine this disaster will spur the development of such technologies.
Especially when passengers can often access real-time technologies in their seats.
IMO there should be cameras in the cockpit, with the pictures being relayed instantly to air traffic control.
Do you know if the plane was wifi enabled? If it was that would lend weight to the rapid disintegration theory, if no passenger had time to post to twitter or fb.
One theory which could answer many questions, though not all is that it was a terrorist attack, but using a chemical that killed all the passengers and pilots very quickly. It would explain why there was no sos etc. The terrorist organisation would not take responsibility for it as it could be a dry run for something bigger elsewhere and would hope that nothing does get found. Does beg the question though, where is the plane now and why has there been no debris?
Do you know if the plane was wifi enabled? If it was that would lend weight to the rapid disintegration theory, if no passenger had time to post to twitter or fb.
I don't know that for sure, but after dipping into the now over 100 page Professional Pilots Rumour Network ('PRuNe') thread, my understanding is that it was WiFi enabled. The reason for this understanding is that there is frequent questioning of why no mobile phone calls were made by passengers when, or if, the plane was overland.
The answer to this may lie in decompression theory. The following chart (from the same blog) illustrates the amount of time available to respond to catastrophic decompression:
Average Effective Performance Time for flying personnel without supplemental oxygen: 15,000 to 18,000 feet ..........30 minutes or more 22,000 feet ...............................5 to 10 minutes 25,000 feet .................................3 to 5 minutes 28,000 feet............................2 1/2 to 3 minutes 30,000 feet .................................1 to 2 minutes 35,000 feet ............................30 to 60 seconds 40,000 feet ............................15 to 20 seconds 45,000 feet ..............................9 to 15 seconds
At the last known location (over the South China Sea) the plane was flying at 35,000 feet.
The pilots on PRuNe believe that a West Turn would normally lead to a descent to 25,000-28,000 feet.
They also report that emergency oxygen supplies to the cabin crew and passenger cabins are on different supplies. The speculation is that a catastrophic event leading to sudden decompression might have not have left enough time for the oxygen supplies to be deployed to passengers and only enough time for the crew to change the path of the plane. The credence being given to this speculation is enhanced by similar problems causing the AF447 (?) Rio-Paris flight going down in the mid-Atlantic.
Do you know if the plane was wifi enabled? If it was that would lend weight to the rapid disintegration theory, if no passenger had time to post to twitter or fb.
I don't know that for sure, but after dipping into the now over 100 page Professional Pilots Rumour Network ('PRuNe') thread, my understanding is that it was WiFi enabled. The reason for this understanding is that there is frequent questioning of why no mobile phone calls were made by passengers when, or if, the plane was overland.
The answer to this may lie in decompression theory. The following chart (from the same blog) illustrates the amount of time available to respond to catastrophic decompression:
Average Effective Performance Time for flying personnel without supplemental oxygen: 15,000 to 18,000 feet ..........30 minutes or more 22,000 feet ...............................5 to 10 minutes 25,000 feet .................................3 to 5 minutes 28,000 feet............................2 1/2 to 3 minutes 30,000 feet .................................1 to 2 minutes 35,000 feet ............................30 to 60 seconds 40,000 feet ............................15 to 20 seconds 45,000 feet ..............................9 to 15 seconds
At the last known location (over the South China Sea) the plane was flying at 35,000 feet.
The pilots on PRuNe believe that a West Turn would normally lead to a descent to 25,000-28,000 feet.
They also report that emergency oxygen supplies to the cabin crew and passenger cabins are on different supplies. The speculation is that a catastrophic event leading to sudden decompression might have not have left enough time for the oxygen supplies to be deployed to passengers and only enough time for the crew to change the path of the plane. The credence being given to this speculation is enhanced by similar problems causing the AF447 (?) Rio-Paris flight going down in the mid-Atlantic.
I read the same theory elsewhere, however, the person who promoted the theory did say that it still doesn't answer the question of where the plane is and why is there no debris(which is the same question to so many of the other theories)?
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.
Agree, it's probably a ship.
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.
It is all a bit weird how it has just dissapeared without trace (up to now). No SOS, no distress call, nothing. Doesn't bode well for the families when the airlines are already offering them compensation.
In this day and age it is surprising that there is not continual information being relayed from the plane to a satellite or listening post. I imagine this disaster will spur the development of such technologies.
Especially when passengers can often access real-time technologies in their seats.
IMO there should be cameras in the cockpit, with the pictures being relayed instantly to air traffic control.
Do you know if the plane was wifi enabled? If it was that would lend weight to the rapid disintegration theory, if no passenger had time to post to twitter or fb.
International airline pilot Karlene Petitt gives her theory on MH370:
"My Theory:
I think the flight deck was compromised. The terrorists turned the transponder off. They told the captain to fly the plane toward a different city. Hong Kong comes to mind, but they could have turned back to Singapore, or head anywhere in range with one mission in mind: Create another 911 event.
I believe that captain initially followed their directions and when he realized what was about to happen, he put the plane into the ocean to save thousands of lives on the ground. If I were in that seat and they decided they didn't need me anymore, I would click off the autopilot and push the nose over in descent during my final breath.
The reason we cannot find this plane is we are looking in the wrong place.
The search crew should draw a line from the point of disappearance, incorporating the turning radius of the plane, to all major cities that could have been a target. Then they need to take the trajectory with the speed and altitude and look in those locations with a 30 mile width."
Sooner or later the remains of the aircraft will be found. Then the black boxes, the flight recorded and the cockpit voice recorded will give up their secrets and we shall find out what did happen."
To my untrained eye that quite clearly looks like a ship.
Agree, it's probably a ship.
I must say, the mood of the Malaysian authorities won't be improved much if internet users discover the location of the plane before they do.
It is all a bit weird how it has just dissapeared without trace (up to now). No SOS, no distress call, nothing. Doesn't bode well for the families when the airlines are already offering them compensation.
In this day and age it is surprising that there is not continual information being relayed from the plane to a satellite or listening post. I imagine this disaster will spur the development of such technologies.
Again some apparently reliable information from the pilots forum.
The main airline manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, install a systems monitoring system on their aircraft as an airline option. Known as "Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System" or "ACARS", an onboard computer and software programme monitors the performance of key systems and transmits reports by satellite to the manufacturer's base,
In theory the satellite reports can be continuous but in practice they are batch reports. The main reason being that each call costs the airline around $2 dollars a minute (not sure of the charging period here). So in normal configuration ACARS will only transmit if a significant change event has taken place or at preset intervals (the pilots were suggesting 20 minutes).
What we do know (if the PRuNe sources are correct) is that no ACARS transmissions were received by Boeing after the Last Recorded Position at 1.21 am local time (i.e mid South China Sea).
Why there were no further ACARS transmissions, which in the case of the Air France mid Atlantic crash provided key information after the start of the crisis, is one of many unknowns in the MH370 story.
The cell phone ringing reports have also been thoroughly discussed on the PRuNe thread.
The answer, which is lightly stated in the Mail article in their 'blue box', is that ring tones are returned to the caller by the service provider when an attempt is being made to connect to a cellphone by polling local cells to see if a connection can be made. When all local cells fail to make a connection the central system will then route the call to a voice message system (if so configured by receiving cellphone user). The voicemail system connection can also take time to respond and therefore the service provider will continue or activate the ring tone to prevent the caller aborting the call.
In areas of high cell coverage the delays are often minimal and no ringtone will be heard by the caller. In areas where there is low coverage (obviously applying in the case of passengers on the MH370 wherever it is likely to be) a ring tone is more likely to be returned.
All this means that the reports of ringing cellphones can easily be explained. They are not a response from the passenger's cellphone but from the central system.
The Mail knows and states this but buries the information to let the 'human story' take precedence.
Looks like the Malacca strait theory has now been pooh poohed, so the last confirmed 'sighting' was on the flight path, not several hundred miles off course.
Looks like the Malacca strait theory has now been pooh poohed, so the last confirmed 'sighting' was on the flight path, not several hundred miles off course.
Are you basing the "pooh-poohing" on the RMAF Chief's Official Statement? Or new information.
It does appear that the authorities have no certain indication of what the actual flight path was.
Take this latest announcement for example:
KUALA LUMPUR: The international search for a missing Malaysian airliner has been expanded into the Andaman Sea, hundreds of kilometres (miles) to the northwest of the original search radius, an official said Wednesday. “Yes, above Sumatra is the Andaman Sea,” Malaysian civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman told AFP when asked to confirm whether ships and planes were searching for missing flight MH370 there.
Sumatra is a large Indonesian island south of the Andaman Sea. The body of water is off Thailand’s west coast. -- AFP
Something is still telling them to look West (or at least North West)!
Either the PRuNe fraternity missed this, or I missed it by just dipping in, or it explains why they talk of cellphone/wireless contact only in the context of flying overland.
But the absence of airline provided WiFi support does go a long way to explaining why no one has heard from the passengers.
Looks like the Malacca strait theory has now been pooh poohed, so the last confirmed 'sighting' was on the flight path, not several hundred miles off course.
Are you basing the "pooh-poohing" on the RMAF Chief's Official Statement? Or new information.
It does appear that the authorities have no certain indication of what the actual flight path was.
Take this latest announcement for example:
KUALA LUMPUR: The international search for a missing Malaysian airliner has been expanded into the Andaman Sea, hundreds of kilometres (miles) to the northwest of the original search radius, an official said Wednesday. “Yes, above Sumatra is the Andaman Sea,” Malaysian civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman told AFP when asked to confirm whether ships and planes were searching for missing flight MH370 there.
Sumatra is a large Indonesian island south of the Andaman Sea. The body of water is off Thailand’s west coast. -- AFP
Something is still telling them to look West (or at least North West)!
Indeed I was. Looking back I can see where I went wrong!
One of the reports said that Bob Crow "insisted on living in a council house", "despite" his salary of £XYZ,000.
I presume that he chose to live in one, not that he insisted.
It reminds me of the unconscious right-wing bias of the media report during the miners' strike in 1984-85 when it was reported that Ian MacGregor "declined to comment" but that Arthur Scargill "refused to say anything".
Furthermore, as someone right of centre, I feel immense sadness that someone(in fact anyone)( like Bob Crow) should die so young. My wife was taken from me at 57 so I understand how it affects people. I many not have agreed with Crow, but may he rest in peace and may the family find peace.
That's right - it's when politics trumps normal human sympathy that politics goes off the rails. Your personal tragedy sounds appalling.
On the polls, I don't think anything is actually changing, as I said when Labour had 7 and 9 point leads. We get too excited by tiny movements. Labour is 5-6 ahead, or 3 if you accept the ICM assumptions about non-voters and don't know. It's not a vast lead but a very stable one.
Avery - as you predicted I wasn't able to resist hospitality. I got taken to the Cafe Chekhov for dinner - so stylish as to be almost camp. My offer to pay was greeted with horror - this is Russia, you're a guest!
Incidentally I'm sending this from a plane which has wifi. PB will be the first to know if something goes amiss! :')
I recently travelled on MAS twice. October and January. Some planes do not even have an Entertainment system. They just hand over a portable cassette system. There are some movies etc. in them.
Furthermore, as someone right of centre, I feel immense sadness that someone(in fact anyone)( like Bob Crow) should die so young. My wife was taken from me at 57 so I understand how it affects people. I many not have agreed with Crow, but may he rest in peace and may the family find peace.
That's right - it's when politics trumps normal human sympathy that politics goes off the rails. Your personal tragedy sounds appalling.
On the polls, I don't think anything is actually changing, as I said when Labour had 7 and 9 point leads. We get too excited by tiny movements. Labour is 5-6 ahead, or 3 if you accept the ICM assumptions about non-voters and don't know. It's not a vast lead but a very stable one.
Avery - as you predicted I wasn't able to resist hospitality. I got taken to the Cafe Chekhov for dinner - so stylish as to be almost camp. My offer to pay was greeted with horror - this is Russia, you're a guest!
Nick
You were very close to where my last apartment was in Moscow and close to Tverskaya!
Café Chekhov wasn't open in my time but it follows in the tme honoured Moscow tradition of oligarch bling. An awful lot of Moscow is very camp: the Kremlin interiors for example and St Basil's Cathedral. Nothing underdone in Moscow!
If you are still in Moscow tonight and are at a loose end you could do worse than attend the following concert:
Svyato-Danilov Monastery Patriarchy Men's Choir performs Russian spiritual music, romances and folk songs. Dom Muzyki Svetlanov Hall. 7 p.m.
Russian Orthodox music and male church choirs may not sound immediately appealing but hearing the bass voice live is one of those experiences that will remain with you forever.
Avery - concert sounds wonderful, but sadly I fly back tonight. Next time!
You've not said what you were doing in Moscow - it'd be interesting, if not confidential. Embassy?
In a break from the reason I was here (animal tests), I talked about the Ukraine with a senior LibDem (=pro-Putin populist) Duma member. His stated view FWIW was that if there wasn't a major bust-up over Crimea splitting off, everything else would get settled - wasn't expecting a row over the rest of Eastern Ukraine. My impression (from public sources rather than the conversation) is that the the non-Crimean east is too much in two minds to make an effective challenge to Kiev likely, with even much of the Russian minority not really sold on a split. But even most Putin critics here are baffled why Crimea shouldn't be allowed to join Russia if it wants to, though there's a minority view that Russia just shouldn't throw its weight about.
The Moscow Times is virulently anti-Putin and anti-Crimean split, incidentally. Presumably their audience is mainly expats, and the publication has the usual expat air of slightly peevish superiority about local affairs, but good to see it uncensored anyway.
Comments
"It is unlikely in the extreme that the aircraft suffered some catastrophic failure, as no debris has been found on its intended route. It now seems that it was under control but turned off its route and descended to a lower level. It is possible but very unlikely that one or both of the pilots became unhinged and that they were responsible. It is possible and more likely that one or more passengers – not necessarily those travelling on false passports – forced the pilots at gunpoint to do so and prevented them from making distress calls.
Sooner or later the remains of the aircraft will be found. Then the black boxes, the flight recorded and the cockpit voice recorded will give up their secrets and we shall find out what did happen."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100263248/malaysia-airlines-mystery-why-todays-aircraft-are-quite-unlike-the-planes-i-flew/
IMO there should be cameras in the cockpit, with the pictures being relayed instantly to air traffic control.
The key question being addressed at the moment is whether the airline changed track and flew back over the North of the Malaysian peninsular.
This possibility is definitely being taken seriously as an extensive search and rescue operation is being conducted in the Malaccan Straights West of Malaysia as well as in the South China Sea, East of the peninsular, where the last (publicly?) known location was established.
The turn west theory is supported by villagers reporting unusual sounds of a low flying aeroplane at a time which would be consistent. It is also based on speculation that military radar has tracked the plane on this path.
On military radar detection, the Chief of the Royal Malaysian Air Force has just issued an official statement denying press reports that he stated the MH370 had been detected. But it is clear he is denying that he made the statement rather than that there is no radar evidence. His line was that official announcements will only be made after all facts have been verified.
If the Sky News speculation that decompression knocked out the crew is correct, then it is possible that, after making a turn, the plane would have continued on autopilot at a stable altitude until its fuel ran out (remember the golfer Payne Stewart incident, albeit in a Learjet). If Sky's speculation is right MH370 could be anywhere in the Indian ocean!
"On Monday, the civil aviation chief said five people checked in but did not board and their baggage was removed accordingly. On Tuesday, the inspector general of police said that everyone who was booked on to the flight had boarded - though he then contradicted himself by saying one person had missed the flight because they got the wrong day. Malaysia Airlines says that four people were booked but never checked in."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/11/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-search-missing-plane-balotelli
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370#Aircraft
"There’s considerable confusion around the theory that flight MH370 veered back towards Malaysia after it stopped communicating with ground controllers. The Malaysian air force chief, General Rodzali Daud, has been quoted as saying that the flight made a sharp left turn, and headed back across Malaysia and out over the Malacca strait.
The New York Times quotes Tengku Sariffuddin Tengku Ahmad, spokesman for the prime minister’s office, as contradicting that account. He said that senior military officials, with whom he had checked, said there was no no evidence that the plane had crossed back over the Malaysian peninsula, only that it may have attempted to do so."
Link = Guardian live blog
Do you know if the plane was wifi enabled? If it was that would lend weight to the rapid disintegration theory, if no passenger had time to post to twitter or fb.
I don't know that for sure, but after dipping into the now over 100 page Professional Pilots Rumour Network ('PRuNe') thread, my understanding is that it was WiFi enabled. The reason for this understanding is that there is frequent questioning of why no mobile phone calls were made by passengers when, or if, the plane was overland.
The answer to this may lie in decompression theory. The following chart (from the same blog) illustrates the amount of time available to respond to catastrophic decompression:
Average Effective Performance Time for flying
personnel without supplemental oxygen:
15,000 to 18,000 feet ..........30 minutes or more
22,000 feet ...............................5 to 10 minutes
25,000 feet .................................3 to 5 minutes
28,000 feet............................2 1/2 to 3 minutes
30,000 feet .................................1 to 2 minutes
35,000 feet ............................30 to 60 seconds
40,000 feet ............................15 to 20 seconds
45,000 feet ..............................9 to 15 seconds
At the last known location (over the South China Sea) the plane was flying at 35,000 feet.
The pilots on PRuNe believe that a West Turn would normally lead to a descent to 25,000-28,000 feet.
They also report that emergency oxygen supplies to the cabin crew and passenger cabins are on different supplies. The speculation is that a catastrophic event leading to sudden decompression might have not have left enough time for the oxygen supplies to be deployed to passengers and only enough time for the crew to change the path of the plane. The credence being given to this speculation is enhanced by similar problems causing the AF447 (?) Rio-Paris flight going down in the mid-Atlantic.
According to the Daily Mail, 20 passengers on board were "experts in electronic warfare":
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2578020/Why-cellphones-missing-Malaysian-Airlines-passengers-ringing-Family-members-claim-loved-ones-smartphones-active.html
The main airline manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, install a systems monitoring system on their aircraft as an airline option. Known as "Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System" or "ACARS", an onboard computer and software programme monitors the performance of key systems and transmits reports by satellite to the manufacturer's base,
In theory the satellite reports can be continuous but in practice they are batch reports. The main reason being that each call costs the airline around $2 dollars a minute (not sure of the charging period here). So in normal configuration ACARS will only transmit if a significant change event has taken place or at preset intervals (the pilots were suggesting 20 minutes).
What we do know (if the PRuNe sources are correct) is that no ACARS transmissions were received by Boeing after the Last Recorded Position at 1.21 am local time (i.e mid South China Sea).
Why there were no further ACARS transmissions, which in the case of the Air France mid Atlantic crash provided key information after the start of the crisis, is one of many unknowns in the MH370 story.
ICM March 2012: Con 39%, Lab 36%, LD 15%, UKIP 4% (18 March)
ICM March 2012: Con 37%, Lab 38%, LD 13%, UKIP 4% (22 March)
ICM March 2013: Con 31%, Lab 39%, LD 15%, UKIP 7%
ICM March 2014: Con 35%, Lab 38%, LD 12%, UKIP 9%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
http://english.martinvarsavsky.net/general/aviation-is-stuck-in-the-60s-a-reflection-on-mh-370.html#sthash.ZtGZFe19.dpuf
The answer, which is lightly stated in the Mail article in their 'blue box', is that ring tones are returned to the caller by the service provider when an attempt is being made to connect to a cellphone by polling local cells to see if a connection can be made. When all local cells fail to make a connection the central system will then route the call to a voice message system (if so configured by receiving cellphone user). The voicemail system connection can also take time to respond and therefore the service provider will continue or activate the ring tone to prevent the caller aborting the call.
In areas of high cell coverage the delays are often minimal and no ringtone will be heard by the caller. In areas where there is low coverage (obviously applying in the case of passengers on the MH370 wherever it is likely to be) a ring tone is more likely to be returned.
All this means that the reports of ringing cellphones can easily be explained. They are not a response from the passenger's cellphone but from the central system.
The Mail knows and states this but buries the information to let the 'human story' take precedence.
Looks like no WIFI on Malaysian Airline planes:
http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Malaysia_Airlines/fleetinfo.php
It does appear that the authorities have no certain indication of what the actual flight path
was.
Take this latest announcement for example:
KUALA LUMPUR: The international search for a missing Malaysian airliner has been expanded into the Andaman Sea, hundreds of kilometres (miles) to the northwest of the original search radius, an official said Wednesday.
“Yes, above Sumatra is the Andaman Sea,” Malaysian civil aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman told AFP when asked to confirm whether ships and planes were searching for missing flight MH370 there.
Sumatra is a large Indonesian island south of the Andaman Sea. The body of water is off Thailand’s west coast. -- AFP
Something is still telling them to look West (or at least North West)!
Either the PRuNe fraternity missed this, or I missed it by just dipping in, or it explains why they talk of cellphone/wireless contact only in the context of flying overland.
But the absence of airline provided WiFi support does go a long way to explaining why no one has heard from the passengers.
But the crew?
I presume that he chose to live in one, not that he insisted.
It reminds me of the unconscious right-wing bias of the media report during the miners' strike in 1984-85 when it was reported that Ian MacGregor "declined to comment" but that Arthur Scargill "refused to say anything".
On the polls, I don't think anything is actually changing, as I said when Labour had 7 and 9 point leads. We get too excited by tiny movements. Labour is 5-6 ahead, or 3 if you accept the ICM assumptions about non-voters and don't know. It's not a vast lead but a very stable one.
Avery - as you predicted I wasn't able to resist hospitality. I got taken to the Cafe Chekhov for dinner - so stylish as to be almost camp. My offer to pay was greeted with horror - this is Russia, you're a guest!
Nothing like the Emirates for diversity.
You were very close to where my last apartment was in Moscow and close to Tverskaya!
Café Chekhov wasn't open in my time but it follows in the tme honoured Moscow tradition of oligarch bling. An awful lot of Moscow is very camp: the Kremlin interiors for example and St Basil's Cathedral. Nothing underdone in Moscow!
PBers can share in your dining experience by travelling to:
http://www.cafe-chekhov.ru/sites/default/files/interior/pano_chekhov_posled1.swf
[A 360 degree virtual panorama so play to see the full glory!. Although the monochrome white means this is understated by Moscow standards].
If you are still in Moscow tonight and are at a loose end you could do worse than attend the following concert:
Svyato-Danilov Monastery Patriarchy Men's Choir performs Russian spiritual music, romances and folk songs. Dom Muzyki Svetlanov Hall. 7 p.m.
Russian Orthodox music and male church choirs may not sound immediately appealing but hearing the bass voice live is one of those experiences that will remain with you forever.
You've not said what you were doing in Moscow - it'd be interesting, if not confidential. Embassy?
In a break from the reason I was here (animal tests), I talked about the Ukraine with a senior LibDem (=pro-Putin populist) Duma member. His stated view FWIW was that if there wasn't a major bust-up over Crimea splitting off, everything else would get settled - wasn't expecting a row over the rest of Eastern Ukraine. My impression (from public sources rather than the conversation) is that the the non-Crimean east is too much in two minds to make an effective challenge to Kiev likely, with even much of the Russian minority not really sold on a split. But even most Putin critics here are baffled why Crimea shouldn't be allowed to join Russia if it wants to, though there's a minority view that Russia just shouldn't throw its weight about.
The Moscow Times is virulently anti-Putin and anti-Crimean split, incidentally. Presumably their audience is mainly expats, and the publication has the usual expat air of slightly peevish superiority about local affairs, but good to see it uncensored anyway.