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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to

SystemSystem Posts: 11,916
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to remain

I like this YouGov approach to discerning public opinion on Brexit – set out the four main option and get people to rank them.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,756
    First
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,491
    edited June 2019
    Only 20% of 2017 Tory voters put Remain as their first choice but 36% of Labour voters and 31% of LD voters put a Brexit option as their first choice
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    edited June 2019
    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    Only 20% of 2017 Tory voters put Remain as their first choice but 36% of Labour voters and 31% of LD voters put a Brexit option as their first choice

    But there are three Brexit options - so which one?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    Meanwhile Pakistan have NZ under the pump, suboptimal for England.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,491
    Remainers 1st preference Remain, 2nd preference Deal plus Customs Union and Single Market, 3rd preference May's Deal and 4th preference No Deal.

    Leavers 1st preference No Deal, 2nd preference May's Deal, 3rd preference Deal plus Single Market and Customs Union and 4th preference Remain
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    HYUFD said:

    Only 20% of 2017 Tory voters put Remain as their first choice but 36% of Labour voters and 31% of LD voters put a Brexit option as their first choice

    But it will come down to 1 Brexit option so for this to have any meaning we need to know where those that wanted the unsuccessful Brexit option go when their preferred option no longer exists.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,280
    The @HYUFD spin operation is going into overdrive.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited June 2019
    Of the three Brexit options No Deal is simultaneously the most popular* for all demographics (except Remain) and also the least popular# for all demographics (bar none+).

    * Judged using first choice.
    # Judged using fourth choice.
    + Of those shown in the tweet.

    Good luck to all of us.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,764
    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    Only 20% of 2017 Tory voters put Remain as their first choice but 36% of Labour voters and 31% of LD voters put a Brexit option as their first choice

    You are shameless. More Tory voters want to remain than non-Tory voters preferring no deal.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    The women/men difference would seem to be about risk tolerance and there's nothing new in saying that women are less risk tolerant than men - certainly the evidence that I've seen supports that view. When one looks at the identity of leading Brexit-enthusasists, there's no real surprise.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
    No - 57% have ranked leaving in some form as their First Preference
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,756

    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
    What part of "Remaining in the EU after all" isn't giving them that choice?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959
    Phillip Lee agrees with Daveys GNU idea on WATO. "About time anti-No Dealers adopted the ERG strategy."
    "No Deal will not happen."
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    dixiedean said:

    Phillip Lee agrees with Daveys GNU idea on WATO. "About time anti-No Dealers adopted the ERG strategy."
    "No Deal will not happen."

    GNU will lead to Nigel Farage PM and the end of the Tory party
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
    No - 57% have ranked leaving in some form as their First Preference
    But you can only actually leave in one form. And - as the ERG has already demonstrated - when leavers are denied their preferred form they don’t necessarily embrace other forms.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    Can someone link the tables ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,764
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
    No - 57% have ranked leaving in some form as their First Preference
    People are ranking outcomes, not what they would want if given a concrete choice. There's a subtle difference.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,129
    Mirroring IanB2 in the old thread.
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Here's one for HYUFD to get his head round from today's YouGov:
    * 28% of respondents make No Deal their 1st choice, 39% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 54% make it their first, second, or third choice; leaving 46% making it their worst choice.
    * 43% of respondents make remain their 1st choice; 50% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 58% make it their 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice; leaving 42% making it their worst choice.
    * So, head to head, Remain is the most favoured 1st, 2nd and 3rd combination choice, while No Deal is seen as worst choice by most people.
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1143846391095144448

    All the Brexit options combined beat Remain at every stage.


    Remain is not over 50% as a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice.

    54% of voters do not rank No Deal last and as their 4th choice
    Dangerous to conflate Brexit and No Deal in your answer. People want to respect the democratic mandate, but that's very different to a (non-elected) PM pushing through No Deal against the wishes of the HoC and 72% of the country.
    The very problem of Brexit is that you cannot have all the Brexits at the same time. The superposition must at some point collapse, so the polling superposition can only take you so far.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    kjohnw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Phillip Lee agrees with Daveys GNU idea on WATO. "About time anti-No Dealers adopted the ERG strategy."
    "No Deal will not happen."

    GNU will lead to Nigel Farage PM and the end of the Tory party
    Not if the Tories die nice and slowly.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    dixiedean said:

    Phillip Lee agrees with Daveys GNU idea on WATO. "About time anti-No Dealers adopted the ERG strategy."
    "No Deal will not happen."

    I have said before and will say again...

    It's time to ride the Gnu.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,288
    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
    No - 57% have ranked leaving in some form as their First Preference

    The most popular leave is one that involves staying i the customs union and single market. Do you think that is a leave the ERG would support? I would take it.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    Never mind Little Englanders, Hunt should have said works for the 100% not just...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Pro_Rata said:

    Mirroring IanB2 in the old thread.

    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Here's one for HYUFD to get his head round from today's YouGov:
    * 28% of respondents make No Deal their 1st choice, 39% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 54% make it their first, second, or third choice; leaving 46% making it their worst choice.
    * 43% of respondents make remain their 1st choice; 50% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 58% make it their 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice; leaving 42% making it their worst choice.
    * So, head to head, Remain is the most favoured 1st, 2nd and 3rd combination choice, while No Deal is seen as worst choice by most people.
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1143846391095144448

    All the Brexit options combined beat Remain at every stage.


    Remain is not over 50% as a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice.

    54% of voters do not rank No Deal last and as their 4th choice
    Dangerous to conflate Brexit and No Deal in your answer. People want to respect the democratic mandate, but that's very different to a (non-elected) PM pushing through No Deal against the wishes of the HoC and 72% of the country.
    The very problem of Brexit is that you cannot have all the Brexits at the same time. The superposition must at some point collapse, so the polling superposition can only take you so far.
    And is of course why deciding how many candidates to field in an STV election is such a fine art. It’s well known that the more candidates you field, the higher the total aggregate party vote, but every time someone is eliminated you lose a slice of support that transfers to your opponents for myriad reasons.

    Taking a poll that contains three leave options and adding these up to compete against a single remain option is proper dodgy.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,288
    HYUFD said:

    Remainers 1st preference Remain, 2nd preference Deal plus Customs Union and Single Market, 3rd preference May's Deal and 4th preference No Deal.

    Leavers 1st preference No Deal, 2nd preference May's Deal, 3rd preference Deal plus Single Market and Customs Union and 4th preference Remain

    Head to Head, Remain bbeast No Deal.

    The most popular Leave involves remaining in the single market and the customs union. What are the chances of the ERG buying that?

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,208
    Is a new poll out today showing conservatives 2% ahead of labour

    Amazing if so
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,865

    Is a new poll out today showing conservatives 2% ahead of labour

    Amazing if so

    That is know as the HYUFD effect.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,208
    Nigelb said:

    Is a new poll out today showing conservatives 2% ahead of labour

    Amazing if so

    That is know as the HYUFD effect.
    If so first time in ages
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    Scott_P said:
    Is it bollocks "picking up steam" only in the tightly controlled twittersphere of political geeks.

    That said, Hunt is nearly right - not sure where Little England is but plenty, arguably the majority of Leave voters are indeed Little Englanders. Why we have one such right here on PB. Loud and proud.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    ;)
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Mirroring IanB2 in the old thread.

    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Here's one for HYUFD to get his head round from today's YouGov:
    * 28% of respondents make No Deal their 1st choice, 39% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 54% make it their first, second, or third choice; leaving 46% making it their worst choice.
    * 43% of respondents make remain their 1st choice; 50% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 58% make it their 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice; leaving 42% making it their worst choice.
    * So, head to head, Remain is the most favoured 1st, 2nd and 3rd combination choice, while No Deal is seen as worst choice by most people.
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1143846391095144448

    All the Brexit options combined beat Remain at every stage.


    Remain is not over 50% as a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice.

    54% of voters do not rank No Deal last and as their 4th choice
    Dangerous to conflate Brexit and No Deal in your answer. People want to respect the democratic mandate, but that's very different to a (non-elected) PM pushing through No Deal against the wishes of the HoC and 72% of the country.
    The very problem of Brexit is that you cannot have all the Brexits at the same time. The superposition must at some point collapse, so the polling superposition can only take you so far.
    And is of course why deciding how many candidates to field in an STV election is such a fine art. It’s well known that the more candidates you field, the higher the total aggregate party vote, but every time someone is eliminated you lose a slice of support that transfers to your opponents for myriad reasons.

    Taking a poll that contains three leave options and adding these up to compete against a single remain option is proper dodgy.
    If I were to implement STV as an electoral system I'd be tempted to insist that parties standing candidates had to offer N+1 candidates, where N is the number of seats, so that the voters would be guaranteed a choice of candidates from each party, rather than manipulated by the number of candidates the party chooses to offer.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,865

    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
    And indeed we do know that some people would accept Norway, or even May's deal, but would have no truck whatsoever with no deal Brexit.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Mirroring IanB2 in the old thread.

    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Here's one for HYUFD to get his head round from today's YouGov:
    * 28% of respondents make No Deal their 1st choice, 39% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 54% make it their first, second, or third choice; leaving 46% making it their worst choice.
    * 43% of respondents make remain their 1st choice; 50% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 58% make it their 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice; leaving 42% making it their worst choice.
    * So, head to head, Remain is the most favoured 1st, 2nd and 3rd combination choice, while No Deal is seen as worst choice by most people.
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1143846391095144448

    All the Brexit options combined beat Remain at every stage.


    Remain is not over 50% as a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice.

    54% of voters do not rank No Deal last and as their 4th choice
    Dangerous to conflate Brexit and No Deal in your answer. People want to respect the democratic mandate, but that's very different to a (non-elected) PM pushing through No Deal against the wishes of the HoC and 72% of the country.
    The very problem of Brexit is that you cannot have all the Brexits at the same time. The superposition must at some point collapse, so the polling superposition can only take you so far.
    And is of course why deciding how many candidates to field in an STV election is such a fine art. It’s well known that the more candidates you field, the higher the total aggregate party vote, but every time someone is eliminated you lose a slice of support that transfers to your opponents for myriad reasons.

    Taking a poll that contains three leave options and adding these up to compete against a single remain option is proper dodgy.
    If I were to implement STV as an electoral system I'd be tempted to insist that parties standing candidates had to offer N+1 candidates, where N is the number of seats, so that the voters would be guaranteed a choice of candidates from each party, rather than manipulated by the number of candidates the party chooses to offer.
    But winning every seat in an STV election is as good as impossible (in any healthy democracy) and the optimum strategy is usually to guess how many seats you might win and field at least one more candidate than that.

    So you have no need to worry,
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,865
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    We'll probably find out.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it bollocks "picking up steam" only in the tightly controlled twittersphere of political geeks.

    That said, Hunt is nearly right - not sure where Little England is but plenty, arguably the majority of Leave voters are indeed Little Englanders. Why we have one such right here on PB. Loud and proud.
    It is a good job Hunt is not running for leader under a process where political geeks who have signed up to a party get to vote then isn't it?
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2019
    GIN1138 said:


    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...


    Baxtered for fun: BXP 207 seats, Lab 181, Con 129, Lib 71.

    BXP/Con coalition govt, PM Farage. Boris would have to resign after those results, but his replacement would presumably get Chancellor.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    _Anazina_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Phillip Lee agrees with Daveys GNU idea on WATO. "About time anti-No Dealers adopted the ERG strategy."
    "No Deal will not happen."

    I have said before and will say again...

    It's time to ride the Gnu.
    It won't happen because Corbyn won't let it and without his support, it's a dead idea.

    The closest you will get is an all-Remain party/Inds support for a short-term Corbyn government who purpose is to extend A50 for 12+ months, and then to collapse this parliament.

    There is no way a Corbyn govt could last in this parliament (not least because it would want to do things other than Brexit), but there is also, IMO, no other way to punt Brexit past Oct 31 now. The Revoke Act option which might have been a runner has fallen away now that parliament probably no longer has the chance to take control of its own order paper.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,223
    Women less likely to like -

    Hard Brexit.
    Donald Trump.
    Top Gear.
    Simplistic overarching theories of how the world works.
    Red meat.
    Sex with no emotional connection.
    Fisticuffs.

    Viva la femme!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Remainers 1st preference Remain, 2nd preference Deal plus Customs Union and Single Market, 3rd preference May's Deal and 4th preference No Deal.

    Leavers 1st preference No Deal, 2nd preference May's Deal, 3rd preference Deal plus Single Market and Customs Union and 4th preference Remain

    Head to Head, Remain bbeast No Deal.

    The most popular Leave involves remaining in the single market and the customs union. What are the chances of the ERG buying that?

    I didn't see a Head to Head Remain vs No Deal question in that. What were the Head to Head binary choice figures?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it bollocks "picking up steam" only in the tightly controlled twittersphere of political geeks.

    That said, Hunt is nearly right - not sure where Little England is but plenty, arguably the majority of Leave voters are indeed Little Englanders. Why we have one such right here on PB. Loud and proud.
    It is a good job Hunt is not running for leader under a process where political geeks who have signed up to a party get to vote then isn't it?
    Again, the majority of whom are indeed Little Englanders. Still, I'm not giving up on the Party yet - plenty of anecdata over the past few days and weeks suggesting that Boris is an equal-opportunities and loathed twat.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    edited June 2019
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    We'll probably find out.

    Electoral Calculus suggests Brexit Party Brexit Party largest party on 208 seats short 118 of a majority.

    Con are on 128 seats with Lab 181 seats and Lib-Dems on 71 seats.

    Brexit Con would have a majority.

    Could it be the case of NFICIPM ??? :open_mouth:
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    edited June 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Electoral Calculus suggests Brexit Party Brexit Party largest party on 208 seats short 118 of a majority.

    Con are on 128 seats with Lab 181 seats and Lib-Dems on 71 seats.

    Brexit Con would have a majority.

    Could it be the case of NFICIPM ??? :open_mouth:

    Boris will start to eat the BREX vote. Right up till 31st October. After that it'll be errm err bus painting in Uxbridge classes...
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,336

    Is a new poll out today showing conservatives 2% ahead of labour

    Amazing if so

    I guess they're already getting a bit of a Boris bounce. He's box office. Until about three days in, when we start to get heart-rending reports of unicorns being slain.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,107
    Hilarious the number of alternative spins that can be put on those numbers. Only HYUFD (aka Comical Ali) thinks there is only one interpretation. Compromise is needed. I think Brexit is pointless, but I can live with us leaving if is done under a proper deal that preserves our economy and some vestige of our international reputation.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,441
    Andrew said:

    GIN1138 said:


    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...


    Baxtered for fun: BXP 207 seats, Lab 181, Con 129, Lib 71.

    BXP/Con coalition govt, PM Farage. Boris would have to resign after those results, but his replacement would presumably get Chancellor.
    I think it must be making the BXP vote "flatter" than it should/would be, because of UKIP's flat performance in % terms in 2017, hence more seats on the same votes.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    Very funny poll. Nigel Farage cementing his position as one of if not the most effective politician of the last 50 years.

    My every fibre makes me think that when it comes to it, in a real election, far fewer people will vote for BXP than say they will or than did at the euros but we are in very, very strange times.

    Politics, bloody hell.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,107

    Is a new poll out today showing conservatives 2% ahead of labour

    Amazing if so

    Is it Tories 2%, Labour Zero?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    We'll probably find out.

    Electoral Calculus suggests Brexit Party Brexit Party largest party on 208 seats short 118 of a majority.

    Con are on 128 seats with Lab 181 seats and Lib-Dems on 71 seats.

    Brexit Con would have a majority.

    Could it be the case of NFICIPM ??? :open_mouth:
    The Tories would be willing to be junior coalition partners to a far right party? Yeah, right. That isn’t the way things tend to pan out in the rest of Europe.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2019
    Pulpstar said:


    Boris will start to eat the BREX vote. Right up till 31st October. After that it'll be errm err bus painting in Uxbridge classes...

    Indeed, I'd assume so. If he took 5% off BXP, we end up with Con 310, Lab 203, Lib 59, BXP 18.

    This of course is the Bozo supporter hope - that he takes a few % from Farage, and Labour doesn't get much back from LD/Green, and he ends up with an insanely efficient vote, 300-320 seats on 27%/28% of the vote.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kinabalu said:

    Women less likely to like -

    Hard Brexit.
    Donald Trump.
    Top Gear.
    Simplistic overarching theories of how the world works.
    Red meat.
    Sex with no emotional connection.
    Fisticuffs.

    Viva la femme!

    Lead the Labour Party.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,336
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it bollocks "picking up steam" only in the tightly controlled twittersphere of political geeks.

    That said, Hunt is nearly right - not sure where Little England is but plenty, arguably the majority of Leave voters are indeed Little Englanders. Why we have one such right here on PB. Loud and proud.
    I would have thought the one more seriously countenancing No Deal on Oct 31 is the one writing off the 52 per cent as Little Englanders. Hunt's approach is aimed just as much at the substantial fraction of leavers who think No Deal is madness and we should keep a highly-integrated economic relationship with the EU.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:
    I'm not sure insulting the people who you want to vote is a good idea. Didn't work for Cameron in 2016.

    Interesting also that Hunt is basically saying the 48% still exist and he presumably is still one of them.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Those are good points. On the other hand, tactical voting by remain supporters would be very effective in a GE scenario with those numbers. I have a feeling that Brexit Party supporters might be less inclined to sacrifice their vote to help the Conservatives - but even if they are there isn't the track record to spot which leave party has the best chances in your particular constituency.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited June 2019

    Andrew said:

    GIN1138 said:


    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...


    Baxtered for fun: BXP 207 seats, Lab 181, Con 129, Lib 71.

    BXP/Con coalition govt, PM Farage. Boris would have to resign after those results, but his replacement would presumably get Chancellor.
    I think it must be making the BXP vote "flatter" than it should/would be, because of UKIP's flat performance in % terms in 2017, hence more seats on the same votes.
    Yep, UNS is bust. You can’t model a party going from nowhere to 20-25% like that. It would be worthwhile one of the geeks coming up with a more sophisticated model feeding in the latest Euro election and local election results, and making some broad assumptions. But it would be a lot of work.

    Edit/ and probably pointless given YouGov’s huge panel, which got pretty close last time by asking actual people in every location and then doing some modelling from that.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,865
    Some very interesting comments from the campaign managers of some of Trump's primary opponents, on the Democratic contest:
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/06/26/trump-2020-democrats-campaign-election-strategy-227210

    I'm inclined to treat Republican commentary on Democrats with disdain - it's usually full of crap - but there's some interesting stuff in there.
    I was particularly amused by their approval of Biden embracing his inner creepy old man.... 'authenticity' !
    The point about the ability to dominate the news cycle is well made, too.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,633

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Spot on Mr H. It is very lazy thinking to lump Green and LD voters together merely because of similar Brexit policies.

    Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,895
    So, cumulative first and second choices ("this is what I want" plus "okay, I'll accept this"; noting third is "Oh, God, if you absolutely must" and fourth is "No, nay, never"):

    SM+CU ("Brexit in Name Only"): 66%
    Remain: 50%
    Withdrawal Agreement: 45%
    No Deal: 39%

    Yet we can see which of those the Tory minority would prefer to inflict upon the majority. Compromise, healing, coming together... all concepts completely irrelevant, it appears. One of those options would be acceptable to a supermajority of the country, a clear majority of Leavers and a clear majority of Remainers alike.

    But no, we have to crash out, lose all our agreements and interactions, damage our supply lines and businesses, and end up needing to spend decades picking up the pieces, just because the Blond Bumbler needs to get us out by Hallowe'en this year, come what may, and the Leaver persecution narrative is that we have to do it now or "they" will "take our Brexit away"
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Nobody prefers No Deal, but without the realistic prospect of No Deal being on the table there is no chance of getting a decent deal.

    The Remainers know that, and that's why they are desperate to take No Deal off the table.

    The next Tory leader's only hope of a way out of this mess is to negotiate with a serious willingness to leave with No Deal. The Remainers will fight tooth and claw and make it extremely difficult (Bercow particularly) for No Deal to be left on the table, but it has to be in order for a resolution to be possible.
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    tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352

    So, cumulative first and second choices ("this is what I want" plus "okay, I'll accept this"; noting third is "Oh, God, if you absolutely must" and fourth is "No, nay, never"):

    SM+CU ("Brexit in Name Only"): 66%
    Remain: 50%
    Withdrawal Agreement: 45%
    No Deal: 39%

    Yet we can see which of those the Tory minority would prefer to inflict upon the majority. Compromise, healing, coming together... all concepts completely irrelevant, it appears. One of those options would be acceptable to a supermajority of the country, a clear majority of Leavers and a clear majority of Remainers alike.

    But no, we have to crash out, lose all our agreements and interactions, damage our supply lines and businesses, and end up needing to spend decades picking up the pieces, just because the Blond Bumbler needs to get us out by Hallowe'en this year, come what may, and the Leaver persecution narrative is that we have to do it now or "they" will "take our Brexit away"

    +1
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,107
    TOPPING said:

    Very funny poll. Nigel Farage cementing his position as one of if not the most effective politician of the last 50 years.

    My every fibre makes me think that when it comes to it, in a real election, far fewer people will vote for BXP than say they will or than did at the euros but we are in very, very strange times.

    Politics, bloody hell.

    You could probably put Putin and Trump alongside Farage as most effective politicians since a certain Austrian corporal. Interesting they are all admirers of each other, but most of all themselves
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,107

    TOPPING said:

    Very funny poll. Nigel Farage cementing his position as one of if not the most effective politician of the last 50 years.

    My every fibre makes me think that when it comes to it, in a real election, far fewer people will vote for BXP than say they will or than did at the euros but we are in very, very strange times.

    Politics, bloody hell.

    You could probably put Putin and Trump alongside Farage as most effective politicians since a certain Austrian corporal. Interesting they are all admirers of each other, but most of all themselves
    PS, I wonder what Putin thinks of Boris?
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Spot on Mr H. It is very lazy thinking to lump Green and LD voters together merely because of similar Brexit policies.

    Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
    Very true. Though tomatoes often start off green but end up red.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    Obviously you can think about these figures in all sorts of ways, particularly to prove or disprove where the majority or the plurality lies. But there is a constant and basic asymmetry in that Remain is presented as a single group, and leave is split into options. Now in a sense it is obvious why this is the case, but it is worth clarifying, since it isn't really true.

    Remain is not split into options even though options exist. People may want remain and closer integration, remain and join the Euro, remain and dissolve the Euro, remain and join Schengen, remain and invite Turkey in as well, remain but abolish the European Parliament and so on. Once you go through this process it is obvious that there can be no majority for anything.

    The reason this attracts no attention is not because it is unimportant, but because no-one thinks what we want will make a scrap of difference. Remain = no serious power over important issues. Leave means actual voice over decisions.

    Which is why, having had the referendum, as approved by parliament, it can only be for parliament to decide how to implement it.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    There really is some desperate spin from a section of Leavers .

    The poll shows one thing . No deal is not the preferred option of 72% of the country.

    If Bozo thinks he will unite the country by leaving with no deal on 31 October he’s deluded .

    All he cares about is sucking up to a demented membership and keeping pondscum like Francois on side .
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,895
    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Mirroring IanB2 in the old thread.

    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Here's one for HYUFD to get his head round from today's YouGov:
    * 28% of respondents make No Deal their 1st choice, 39% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 54% make it their first, second, or third choice; leaving 46% making it their worst choice.
    * 43% of respondents make remain their 1st choice; 50% make it their 1st or 2nd choice; 58% make it their 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice; leaving 42% making it their worst choice.
    * So, head to head, Remain is the most favoured 1st, 2nd and 3rd combination choice, while No Deal is seen as worst choice by most people.
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1143846391095144448

    All the Brexit options combined beat Remain at every stage.


    Remain is not over 50% as a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice.

    54% of voters do not rank No Deal last and as their 4th choice
    Dangerous to conflate Brexit and No Deal in your answer. People want to respect the democratic mandate, but that's very different to a (non-elected) PM pushing through No Deal against the wishes of the HoC and 72% of the country.
    The very problem of Brexit is that you cannot have all the Brexits at the same time. The superposition must at some point collapse, so the polling superposition can only take you so far.
    And is of course why deciding how many candidates to field in an STV election is such a fine art. It’s well known that the more candidates you field, the higher the total aggregate party vote, but every time someone is eliminated you lose a slice of support that transfers to your opponents for myriad reasons.

    Taking a poll that contains three leave options and adding these up to compete against a single remain option is proper dodgy.
    That's one reason I'm not that fond of STV.
    Open List County-PR is the way to go: gives people a choice (open list) and each county (or similar area) gives (local) representation approximately equivalent to support.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,895
    Nigelb said:

    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
    And indeed we do know that some people would accept Norway, or even May's deal, but would have no truck whatsoever with no deal Brexit.
    Yet HYUFD handwaves frantically to "explain" that such is exactly what the people want, as demonstrated in this poll.

    What's the old saying? Using polls like the drunk uses a lamp-post: for support rather than illumination.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,865

    Nigelb said:

    kjohnw said:

    So basically 57% want to leave in some form vs 43% wanting to remain

    57% will accept leaving in some form, but 43% will not. You can't conclude from these figures that 57% want to leave - indeed other polls from YouGov show that the majority would want to Remain if given that choice.
    And indeed we do know that some people would accept Norway, or even May's deal, but would have no truck whatsoever with no deal Brexit.
    Yet HYUFD handwaves frantically to "explain" that such is exactly what the people want, as demonstrated in this poll.

    What's the old saying? Using polls like the drunk uses a lamp-post: for support rather than illumination.
    I prefer to think of him as a talented surrealist, expressing himself in a novel medium.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Spot on Mr H. It is very lazy thinking to lump Green and LD voters together merely because of similar Brexit policies.

    Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
    Nevertheless if they had a formal deal, in the context of an election that would decide the future of Brexit, on a common platform of Remain, Reform and Climate, with Labour still wobbly on its fence, I reckon they could do quite well.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,523
    This poll is very interesting. The option that has the fewest 4th choices d the most combined 1st and second choices is also the most logical way of fulfilling the referendum result. It's also the option that almost no politicians have been arguing for.

    Imagine how much support it would have if the leader of the opposition had been arguing for it since the referendum result instead of idiotically calling for Article 50 to be immediately triggered without a plan. And imagine how far ahead in the opinion polls they would be if they had had such a coherent policy.
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    So, cumulative first and second choices ("this is what I want" plus "okay, I'll accept this"; noting third is "Oh, God, if you absolutely must" and fourth is "No, nay, never"):

    SM+CU ("Brexit in Name Only"): 66%
    Remain: 50%
    Withdrawal Agreement: 45%
    No Deal: 39%

    Yet we can see which of those the Tory minority would prefer to inflict upon the majority. Compromise, healing, coming together... all concepts completely irrelevant, it appears. One of those options would be acceptable to a supermajority of the country, a clear majority of Leavers and a clear majority of Remainers alike.

    But no, we have to crash out, lose all our agreements and interactions, damage our supply lines and businesses, and end up needing to spend decades picking up the pieces, just because the Blond Bumbler needs to get us out by Hallowe'en this year, come what may, and the Leaver persecution narrative is that we have to do it now or "they" will "take our Brexit away"

    With respect, the ongoing uncertainty is at least - if not more - damaging to business investment than the impact of a no deal Brexit. The City is already having to adjust to this reality, but significant investment is on hold until we see exactly which way we go (and no, it will not all vanish in the wake of even a hard Brexit). Either way, resolution is necessary, and soon, as a practical imperative.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    We'll probably find out.

    Electoral Calculus suggests Brexit Party Brexit Party largest party on 208 seats short 118 of a majority.

    Con are on 128 seats with Lab 181 seats and Lib-Dems on 71 seats.

    Brexit Con would have a majority.

    Could it be the case of NFICIPM ??? :open_mouth:
    The Tories would be willing to be junior coalition partners to a far right party? Yeah, right. That isn’t the way things tend to pan out in the rest of Europe.
    Not to mention who the heck Farage would put in his Cabinet?
    PM Nigel Farage.
    DPM. Nige F Arage.
    CoE Mr N Farage
    HS N Farage, esq.
    Leader of H of L Lord Farage of the Red Lion.
    FS no time for foreigners...
    Education Prof. Farage
    Equalities Anne Widdecombe.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    An interesting poll question would be:

    Would you prefer No Deal or another three years of uncertainty.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Spot on Mr H. It is very lazy thinking to lump Green and LD voters together merely because of similar Brexit policies.

    Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
    Nevertheless if they had a formal deal, in the context of an election that would decide the future of Brexit, on a common platform of Remain, Reform and Climate, with Labour still wobbly on its fence, I reckon they could do quite well.
    Hopefully, Labour's natural tribal gravity to the left makes me roll my eyes.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Spot on Mr H. It is very lazy thinking to lump Green and LD voters together merely because of similar Brexit policies.

    Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
    Nevertheless if they had a formal deal, in the context of an election that would decide the future of Brexit, on a common platform of Remain, Reform and Climate, with Labour still wobbly on its fence, I reckon they could do quite well.
    Perhaps. But there is a reason why people are choosing to back the Greens (who have very little chance of winning more than the smallest handful of seats), over the Lib Dems (who would be in contention in scores of them).
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    We'll probably find out.

    Electoral Calculus suggests Brexit Party Brexit Party largest party on 208 seats short 118 of a majority.

    Con are on 128 seats with Lab 181 seats and Lib-Dems on 71 seats.

    Brexit Con would have a majority.

    Could it be the case of NFICIPM ??? :open_mouth:
    The Tories would be willing to be junior coalition partners to a far right party? Yeah, right. That isn’t the way things tend to pan out in the rest of Europe.
    Not to mention who the heck Farage would put in his Cabinet?
    PM Nigel Farage.
    DPM. Nige F Arage.
    CoE Mr N Farage
    HS N Farage, esq.
    Leader of H of L Lord Farage of the Red Lion.
    FS no time for foreigners...
    Education Prof. Farage
    Equalities Anne Widdecombe.
    Richard Tice would be chancellor.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,865
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Spot on Mr H. It is very lazy thinking to lump Green and LD voters together merely because of similar Brexit policies.

    Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
    Nevertheless if they had a formal deal, in the context of an election that would decide the future of Brexit, on a common platform of Remain, Reform and Climate, with Labour still wobbly on its fence, I reckon they could do quite well.
    I think any formal need might need also to include the immediate introduction of PR in its platform.
    Whether that would prove electorally popular is an ... interesting question.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Spot on Mr H. It is very lazy thinking to lump Green and LD voters together merely because of similar Brexit policies.

    Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
    Nevertheless if they had a formal deal, in the context of an election that would decide the future of Brexit, on a common platform of Remain, Reform and Climate, with Labour still wobbly on its fence, I reckon they could do quite well.
    Perhaps. But there is a reason why people are choosing to back the Greens (who have very little chance of winning more than the smallest handful of seats), over the Lib Dems (who would be in contention in scores of them).
    In the majority of seats neither of them are in contention, and it’s simply a matter of preference. The question is what proportion would transfer.
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    tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    Fenster said:

    An interesting poll question would be:

    Would you prefer No Deal or another three years of uncertainty.

    No Deal is surely 3 years (or more) of uncertainty! With the markets / economy suffering....
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Fenster said:

    An interesting poll question would be:

    Would you prefer No Deal or another three years of uncertainty.


    Like anything’s going to be certain after a no deal crashout.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,107

    Scott_P said:
    I'm not sure insulting the people who you want to vote is a good idea. Didn't work for Cameron in 2016.

    Interesting also that Hunt is basically saying the 48% still exist and he presumably is still one of them.
    With regards to your second point, I would think so, he is clearly an intelligent man with a good knowledge of business.

    Boris also knows Father Christmas isn't real, but he doesn't want to break it to you.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    I suspect a LD-Green pact would do a lot worse in reality than in projection. They're quite different parties with different traditions, policies and attitudes. Much of the Green share has come from Lab and in the absence of a Green candidate, might well go back there or abstain, rather than transfer to the LDs.

    Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
    Spot on Mr H. It is very lazy thinking to lump Green and LD voters together merely because of similar Brexit policies.

    Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
    Nevertheless if they had a formal deal, in the context of an election that would decide the future of Brexit, on a common platform of Remain, Reform and Climate, with Labour still wobbly on its fence, I reckon they could do quite well.
    I think any formal need might need also to include the immediate introduction of PR in its platform.
    Whether that would prove electorally popular is an ... interesting question.
    By reform I meant political reform, not EU reform. Although the platform could usefully sign up to both.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,959
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    We'll probably find out.

    Electoral Calculus suggests Brexit Party Brexit Party largest party on 208 seats short 118 of a majority.

    Con are on 128 seats with Lab 181 seats and Lib-Dems on 71 seats.

    Brexit Con would have a majority.

    Could it be the case of NFICIPM ??? :open_mouth:
    The Tories would be willing to be junior coalition partners to a far right party? Yeah, right. That isn’t the way things tend to pan out in the rest of Europe.
    Not to mention who the heck Farage would put in his Cabinet?
    PM Nigel Farage.
    DPM. Nige F Arage.
    CoE Mr N Farage
    HS N Farage, esq.
    Leader of H of L Lord Farage of the Red Lion.
    FS no time for foreigners...
    Education Prof. Farage
    Equalities Anne Widdecombe.
    Richard Tice would be chancellor.
    Wonderful!
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,814
    Andrew said:

    GIN1138 said:


    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...


    Baxtered for fun: BXP 207 seats, Lab 181, Con 129, Lib 71.

    BXP/Con coalition govt, PM Farage. Boris would have to resign after those results, but his replacement would presumably get Chancellor.
    With 4 parties within 3% of each other and margin of error around 3% you could swap those labels around in any permutation.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,633
    Fenster said:

    An interesting poll question would be:

    Would you prefer No Deal or another three years of uncertainty.

    How many years of uncertainty would No Deal result in?
  • Options
    tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    An interesting poll question would be:

    Would you prefer No Deal or another three years of uncertainty.


    Like anything’s going to be certain after a no deal crashout.
    Exactly. This line is insane. No Deal isn't an end point.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,107
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)

    A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.

    How the hell FPTP would cope with that who know...
    We'll probably find out.

    Electoral Calculus suggests Brexit Party Brexit Party largest party on 208 seats short 118 of a majority.

    Con are on 128 seats with Lab 181 seats and Lib-Dems on 71 seats.

    Brexit Con would have a majority.

    Could it be the case of NFICIPM ??? :open_mouth:
    The Tories would be willing to be junior coalition partners to a far right party? Yeah, right. That isn’t the way things tend to pan out in the rest of Europe.
    Not to mention who the heck Farage would put in his Cabinet?
    PM Nigel Farage.
    DPM. Nige F Arage.
    CoE Mr N Farage
    HS N Farage, esq.
    Leader of H of L Lord Farage of the Red Lion.
    FS no time for foreigners...
    Education Prof. Farage
    Equalities Anne Widdecombe.
    Richard Tice would be chancellor.
    Mark Francois would be running the intelligence service
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    I mean, this poll pretty much tells us what we knew. I've said from the beginning, as a Remainer, if May had done a charm offensive towards fellow Remainers for her Brexit plan (maybe keep FoM or CU or something else), it would have happened and would have 66% of people behind it. That half think leaving whilst remaining in the SM and CU is the 2nd best option shows that would have been the best point to head towards from the beginning, and had more political will been put to reach across that divide, more Remainers would probably have willingly backed it. By going for the hardest of Brexits, many Remainers have also entrenched themselves to staying. On a 52/48 margin that was always going to be the case.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kamski said:

    This poll is very interesting. The option that has the fewest 4th choices d the most combined 1st and second choices is also the most logical way of fulfilling the referendum result. It's also the option that almost no politicians have been arguing for.

    Imagine how much support it would have if the leader of the opposition had been arguing for it since the referendum result instead of idiotically calling for Article 50 to be immediately triggered without a plan. And imagine how far ahead in the opinion polls they would be if they had had such a coherent policy.

    But Labour's policy at the 2017 GE was for a softer Brexit with CU though not FM.
    With the benefit of hindsight we can say that Labour should perhaps have adopted SM/CU in 2016 though many MPs would have objected, even Chuka Umunna was saying at that time that FM had to end.

    But it is too late now, the argument has become polarised. The choice is no deal or remain.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,288
    Animal_pb said:

    So, cumulative first and second choices ("this is what I want" plus "okay, I'll accept this"; noting third is "Oh, God, if you absolutely must" and fourth is "No, nay, never"):

    SM+CU ("Brexit in Name Only"): 66%
    Remain: 50%
    Withdrawal Agreement: 45%
    No Deal: 39%

    Yet we can see which of those the Tory minority would prefer to inflict upon the majority. Compromise, healing, coming together... all concepts completely irrelevant, it appears. One of those options would be acceptable to a supermajority of the country, a clear majority of Leavers and a clear majority of Remainers alike.

    But no, we have to crash out, lose all our agreements and interactions, damage our supply lines and businesses, and end up needing to spend decades picking up the pieces, just because the Blond Bumbler needs to get us out by Hallowe'en this year, come what may, and the Leaver persecution narrative is that we have to do it now or "they" will "take our Brexit away"

    With respect, the ongoing uncertainty is at least - if not more - damaging to business investment than the impact of a no deal Brexit. The City is already having to adjust to this reality, but significant investment is on hold until we see exactly which way we go (and no, it will not all vanish in the wake of even a hard Brexit). Either way, resolution is necessary, and soon, as a practical imperative.

    No Deal is not resolution.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    TOPPING said:

    Very funny poll. Nigel Farage cementing his position as one of if not the most effective politician of the last 50 years.

    My every fibre makes me think that when it comes to it, in a real election, far fewer people will vote for BXP than say they will or than did at the euros but we are in very, very strange times.

    Politics, bloody hell.

    You could probably put Putin and Trump alongside Farage as most effective politicians since a certain Austrian corporal. Interesting they are all admirers of each other, but most of all themselves
    PS, I wonder what Putin thinks of Boris?
    That all his Christmases have come? Boris, as a person who agrees with whoever is in front of him, would be welcomed by Putin.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The latest guff from Leave .

    Let’s give business certainty by crashing out with no deal . Business want Brexit ditched not a no deal certainty .
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,107
    148grss said:

    I mean, this poll pretty much tells us what we knew. I've said from the beginning, as a Remainer, if May had done a charm offensive towards fellow Remainers for her Brexit plan (maybe keep FoM or CU or something else), it would have happened and would have 66% of people behind it. That half think leaving whilst remaining in the SM and CU is the 2nd best option shows that would have been the best point to head towards from the beginning, and had more political will been put to reach across that divide, more Remainers would probably have willingly backed it. By going for the hardest of Brexits, many Remainers have also entrenched themselves to staying. On a 52/48 margin that was always going to be the case.

    Agreed. Compromise will need to be found in the end. I hope so anyway. The problem with Brexit is that there has been massive mission creep. Most of those in favour of it never explicitly said it would be outside the CU at the time of the referendum for fear of scaring the horses . Brexiters have simply made their position more and more extreme.
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