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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds just 28% wanting a no deal against 43% wanting to remain
I like this YouGov approach to discerning public opinion on Brexit – set out the four main option and get people to rank them.
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CON: 22% (+2)
LAB: 20% (-)
LDEM: 19% (-2)
GRN: 10% (+1)
A Green-Lib Dem remain pact could do well here.
Leavers 1st preference No Deal, 2nd preference May's Deal, 3rd preference Deal plus Single Market and Customs Union and 4th preference Remain
* Judged using first choice.
# Judged using fourth choice.
+ Of those shown in the tweet.
Good luck to all of us.
"No Deal will not happen."
It's time to ride the Gnu.
Taking a poll that contains three leave options and adding these up to compete against a single remain option is proper dodgy.
The most popular Leave involves remaining in the single market and the customs union. What are the chances of the ERG buying that?
Amazing if so
That said, Hunt is nearly right - not sure where Little England is but plenty, arguably the majority of Leave voters are indeed Little Englanders. Why we have one such right here on PB. Loud and proud.
So you have no need to worry,
Baxtered for fun: BXP 207 seats, Lab 181, Con 129, Lib 71.
BXP/Con coalition govt, PM Farage. Boris would have to resign after those results, but his replacement would presumably get Chancellor.
The closest you will get is an all-Remain party/Inds support for a short-term Corbyn government who purpose is to extend A50 for 12+ months, and then to collapse this parliament.
There is no way a Corbyn govt could last in this parliament (not least because it would want to do things other than Brexit), but there is also, IMO, no other way to punt Brexit past Oct 31 now. The Revoke Act option which might have been a runner has fallen away now that parliament probably no longer has the chance to take control of its own order paper.
Hard Brexit.
Donald Trump.
Top Gear.
Simplistic overarching theories of how the world works.
Red meat.
Sex with no emotional connection.
Fisticuffs.
Viva la femme!
Electoral Calculus suggests Brexit Party Brexit Party largest party on 208 seats short 118 of a majority.
Con are on 128 seats with Lab 181 seats and Lib-Dems on 71 seats.
Brexit Con would have a majority.
Could it be the case of NFICIPM ???
Note also that YouGov routinely reports higher Green and lower Lab shares (by about 4%) than other pollsters.
My every fibre makes me think that when it comes to it, in a real election, far fewer people will vote for BXP than say they will or than did at the euros but we are in very, very strange times.
Politics, bloody hell.
This of course is the Bozo supporter hope - that he takes a few % from Farage, and Labour doesn't get much back from LD/Green, and he ends up with an insanely efficient vote, 300-320 seats on 27%/28% of the vote.
Interesting also that Hunt is basically saying the 48% still exist and he presumably is still one of them.
Edit/ and probably pointless given YouGov’s huge panel, which got pretty close last time by asking actual people in every location and then doing some modelling from that.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/06/26/trump-2020-democrats-campaign-election-strategy-227210
I'm inclined to treat Republican commentary on Democrats with disdain - it's usually full of crap - but there's some interesting stuff in there.
I was particularly amused by their approval of Biden embracing his inner creepy old man.... 'authenticity' !
The point about the ability to dominate the news cycle is well made, too.
Watermellons are not yellow in the middle!
SM+CU ("Brexit in Name Only"): 66%
Remain: 50%
Withdrawal Agreement: 45%
No Deal: 39%
Yet we can see which of those the Tory minority would prefer to inflict upon the majority. Compromise, healing, coming together... all concepts completely irrelevant, it appears. One of those options would be acceptable to a supermajority of the country, a clear majority of Leavers and a clear majority of Remainers alike.
But no, we have to crash out, lose all our agreements and interactions, damage our supply lines and businesses, and end up needing to spend decades picking up the pieces, just because the Blond Bumbler needs to get us out by Hallowe'en this year, come what may, and the Leaver persecution narrative is that we have to do it now or "they" will "take our Brexit away"
The Remainers know that, and that's why they are desperate to take No Deal off the table.
The next Tory leader's only hope of a way out of this mess is to negotiate with a serious willingness to leave with No Deal. The Remainers will fight tooth and claw and make it extremely difficult (Bercow particularly) for No Deal to be left on the table, but it has to be in order for a resolution to be possible.
Remain is not split into options even though options exist. People may want remain and closer integration, remain and join the Euro, remain and dissolve the Euro, remain and join Schengen, remain and invite Turkey in as well, remain but abolish the European Parliament and so on. Once you go through this process it is obvious that there can be no majority for anything.
The reason this attracts no attention is not because it is unimportant, but because no-one thinks what we want will make a scrap of difference. Remain = no serious power over important issues. Leave means actual voice over decisions.
Which is why, having had the referendum, as approved by parliament, it can only be for parliament to decide how to implement it.
The poll shows one thing . No deal is not the preferred option of 72% of the country.
If Bozo thinks he will unite the country by leaving with no deal on 31 October he’s deluded .
All he cares about is sucking up to a demented membership and keeping pondscum like Francois on side .
Open List County-PR is the way to go: gives people a choice (open list) and each county (or similar area) gives (local) representation approximately equivalent to support.
What's the old saying? Using polls like the drunk uses a lamp-post: for support rather than illumination.
Imagine how much support it would have if the leader of the opposition had been arguing for it since the referendum result instead of idiotically calling for Article 50 to be immediately triggered without a plan. And imagine how far ahead in the opinion polls they would be if they had had such a coherent policy.
PM Nigel Farage.
DPM. Nige F Arage.
CoE Mr N Farage
HS N Farage, esq.
Leader of H of L Lord Farage of the Red Lion.
FS no time for foreigners...
Education Prof. Farage
Equalities Anne Widdecombe.
Would you prefer No Deal or another three years of uncertainty.
Whether that would prove electorally popular is an ... interesting question.
Like anything’s going to be certain after a no deal crashout.
Boris also knows Father Christmas isn't real, but he doesn't want to break it to you.
With the benefit of hindsight we can say that Labour should perhaps have adopted SM/CU in 2016 though many MPs would have objected, even Chuka Umunna was saying at that time that FM had to end.
But it is too late now, the argument has become polarised. The choice is no deal or remain.
Let’s give business certainty by crashing out with no deal . Business want Brexit ditched not a no deal certainty .