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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Welcome to PB, Mr. Jamei.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Do you anticipate standing again?
    I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Scott_P said:
    What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. L, it's also possible he thinks that if he loses then Boris will be so bloody awful that criticism of Boris will end up vindicated.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.
    Beaconsfield?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    Jonathan said:

    The responsibility of May (and indeed the new Tory leader and others) is to avoid putting the Queen in a difficult position. May should only resign when she has a clear successor as PM.

    I would hope that whoever becomes Tory leader quickly stomps on any howls of conspiracy and thanks May publicly for providing the space for him to form a government.

    Fat chance of that if it's Boris and the crazy gang. But it's a nice idea.
    The responsibility also rests imho on the likely Tory rebel MPs. It would be extremely discourteous to the Queen to say the least to indicate that they will not bring down the new PM within days via Jezza's VONC, and then do precisely that.

    In the end this may rest on the semantics of the wording, which iirc is "highly likely to command" confidence.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.

    If BoZo wins and goes for No Deal, maybe Hunt will vote for the VONC :smile:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.
    Well good luck
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    Mr. L, it's also possible he thinks that if he loses then Boris will be so bloody awful that criticism of Boris will end up vindicated.

    Nah, it is more that a successful entrepreneur did not come into politics to prance about on the back benches being ignored. He will want a top job, possible the top job, or I suspect he will be gone.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    The issue is that not all independents/CHUK will vote down the Government. Nobody knows how many will, but some will be thinking they will be out of a job by autumn.
    If the VONC is to stop a no deal brexit then all the independents will certainly support it. They've already left their original party because it was too Brexity for them, they are certainly not going to abstain on a VONC if the result would be a no deal whatever the cost to their career.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    justin124 said:

    Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.
    If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.

    And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18

    ... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8

    ... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    tlg86 said:

    Beaconsfield?
    I wouldn't say no. They might!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,969
    So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited June 2019
    nichomar said:

    I suspect you’re two years younger than me.
    10 th Oct 1974 was first day of lectures for me in Durham. Arrived for Freshers' on 5th.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Scott_P said:

    If BoZo wins and goes for No Deal, maybe Hunt will vote for the VONC :smile:
    I think that he thinks that no deal is irresponsible. Perfectly acceptable as a negotiating tactic but ultimately just stupid. I don't think he would back it even if he is hinting otherwise for the purposes of the campaign.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525
    DavidL said:

    What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.
    And/or that he's convinced Boris wouldn't last long as PM so wants to become the heir apparent.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155

    If the VONC is to stop a no deal brexit then all the independents will certainly support it. They've already left their original party because it was too Brexity for them, they are certainly not going to abstain on a VONC if the result would be a no deal whatever the cost to their career.
    Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.

    I have been arguing for a while on here that Boris will not become PM, but the holiday argument that someone posted here today has given me pause for thought. Do enough of them want a GE in August? Maybe they will hang fire until 5th September.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,969

    If the VONC is to stop a no deal brexit then all the independents will certainly support it. They've already left their original party because it was too Brexity for them, they are certainly not going to abstain on a VONC if the result would be a no deal whatever the cost to their career.
    It may depend on whether there's "a plan" - such as a cross-party candidate as an alternative. That is safer ground for many MPs (even if the initiative subsequently comes to nothing) than a VONC aimed straight at a GE. Another attraction is that it pre-empts Corbyn insisting he be given a chance, which would be the normal next step if the Tory PM has been rejected by the House.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155

    Well good luck
    Might be one in Beaconsfield soon :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    And/or that he's convinced Boris wouldn't last long as PM so wants to become the heir apparent.
    Maybe. After the excitement of Boris a safe pair of hands might look a better option. Will probably be in opposition though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525

    Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.

    The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IanB2 said:

    So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.

    I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. B2, at the risk of depressing everyone, I think Grayling is a shoo-in.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    DavidL said:

    What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.
    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1143131549929562112
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.
    Really?

    Stewart was pretty definitive that he would not serve. Are Rudd and Boris not pretty much polar opposites? Not at all sure about Gove. Their relationship is also poisonous.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.
    What do you think the consequences of such a vote would be ?

    A GE - won by who ?

  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.
    I think I'm right (?) that an incoming PM doesn't have to submit him/herself to a vote of confidence (ie the Queen's appointment being formally ratified by parliament)? So it's basically a case of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough"?

    My uninformed reckon is that if Boris arrives mumbling about doing what he can to get a better deal, he'll be given a chance to see what happens. If he turns up in "full steam ahead to the sunlit uplands/cliff edge " mode.. not so much.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The issue is that not all independents/CHUK will vote down the Government. Nobody knows how many will, but some will be thinking they will be out of a job by autumn.
    If Tory MPs are resigning the Whip or witholding their support, it would be difficult for ex-Labour Independents not to support a VNOC. I doubt that Lady Hermon would support Boris either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1143131549929562112
    I hadn't seen that when I made my comment but it is obvious that this campaign is going to be a lot sharper than once thought.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    DavidL said:

    Really?

    Stewart was pretty definitive that he would not serve. Are Rudd and Boris not pretty much polar opposites? Not at all sure about Gove. Their relationship is also poisonous.

    Ah yes, I forgot Rory said he wouldn't serve. He'd have a job if he wanted one. Rudd has some time for "liberal" Boris: she clearly flirted with endorsing him. Not picking Gove just prolongs the psychodrama - personally I'd leave him where he is. Forming a Cabinet is a balancing act - it's the lower ranks that you stuff with your supporters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1143166670036295680

    Not sure that tweet reads exactly as Owen intended.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525
    TGOHF said:

    What do you think the consequences of such a vote would be ?

    A GE - won by who ?

    If it led to a Farage majority, so what? He would face exactly the same issues.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440
    I am shocked, you've said something uncomplimentary about a a Unionist politician.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,969
    edited June 2019

    I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.
    I'd be surprised. Gove and him don't exactly get on. Rory wont serve. I cant see him being best pals with Hunt after this contest. And the zealots will be calling for a sweep out and jobs for 'real' leavers.

    Quite possibly he'll be down there with Corbyn with the incredulity of some of his appointments.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155

    I think I'm right (?) that an incoming PM doesn't have to submit him/herself to a vote of confidence (ie the Queen's appointment being formally ratified by parliament)? So it's basically a case of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough"?

    My uninformed reckon is that if Boris arrives mumbling about doing what he can to get a better deal, he'll be given a chance to see what happens. If he turns up in "full steam ahead to the sunlit uplands/cliff edge " mode.. not so much.
    No need for a vote. Queen takes advice of out-going PM who has to recommend someone likely to command confidence.

    In this case though, seems a good chance that Jezza will attempt a VONC on day one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525

    No need for a vote. Queen takes advice of out-going PM who has to recommend someone likely to command confidence.

    In this case though, seems a good chance that Jezza will attempt a VONC on day one.
    If enough Conservative/DUP MPs publicly said before his appointment that they wouldn't back him, then May and the Queen would be in a difficult position.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    Ah yes, I forgot Rory said he wouldn't serve. He'd have a job if he wanted one. Rudd has some time for "liberal" Boris: she clearly flirted with endorsing him. Not picking Gove just prolongs the psychodrama - personally I'd leave him where he is. Forming a Cabinet is a balancing act - it's the lower ranks that you stuff with your supporters.
    I think picking a cabinet is also a lot easier when you have a 50+ majority rather than no majority at all. Excluding people at the moment looks unwise and self indulgent. That said May had a lot of dead and dull wood which really should be axed.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019

    I am shocked, you've said something uncomplimentary about a a Unionist politician.
    Your concern is “touching”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/ross-thomson-mp-denies-sexual-assaults-house-of-commons-bar
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.
    IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office, offering leaving with renegotiated deal or no deal and no £39billion by 31/10. if he wins majority then we leave on 31/10 come what may. if he loses JC goes 2ref, and IMO will lose such a ref.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    DavidL said:

    Really?

    Stewart was pretty definitive that he would not serve. Are Rudd and Boris not pretty much polar opposites? Not at all sure about Gove. Their relationship is also poisonous.

    Stewart would look a bit of a dick if he took a job.. though it may be smart of Boris to offer one of he's going to try to heal the party (along with the Rudds and Goves). But I've seen plenty of people recommending he goes full-steam Leaver fantasy cabinet.

    Admittedly I'm from the Blairite/Cameroon/Stewarty/Cable-ite mushy middle.. but I see that course of action worsening rather than alleviating party discipline problems in the Commons, and also alienating moderate voters in the battle ahead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    Stewart would look a bit of a dick if he took a job.. though it may be smart of Boris to offer one of he's going to try to heal the party (along with the Rudds and Goves). But I've seen plenty of people recommending he goes full-steam Leaver fantasy cabinet.

    Admittedly I'm from the Blairite/Cameroon/Stewarty/Cable-ite mushy middle.. but I see that course of action worsening rather than alleviating party discipline problems in the Commons, and also alienating moderate voters in the battle ahead.
    I come from the same place so not surprisingly I agree!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440
    edited June 2019
    kjohnw said:

    IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office, offering leaving with renegotiated deal or no deal and no £39billion by 31/10. if he wins majority then we leave on 31/10 come what may. if he loses JC goes 2ref, and IMO will lose such a ref.
    Bottler Boris cannot go for a snap election without two thirds of Parliament consenting.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.

    And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18

    ... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8

    ... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.
    I don't disagree with most of that. My point really was that Labour's wobble in Scotland reflects what has happened in GB as a whole. If Labour's national vote share recovers - as I expect - to at least 35%/36% , that is likely to be also reflected in its vote share in Scotland.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    You really want to go down that route? REALLY?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-46856934
    There is a difference between fact and fiction.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    edited June 2019
    We already know Boris is going to say on Day 1 that he is going to renegotiate a deal.

    Surely all Con MPs will wait until at least September and probably early October before supporting a VONC. There have no need to support a VONC on 25 July - that's more than three months before the earliest possible leaving date.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Divvie, so, what you're saying is that Boris is the political equivalent of new recipe Irn-Bru?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Today so far we have had @isam arguing in favour of the reliability of opinion polls and @StuartDickson arguing against relying on Scottish subsamples. What fresh treats do we have in store?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440

    There is a difference between fact and fiction.
    Indeed, one has been charged and one has not.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Bottler Boris cannot go for a snap election without two thirds of Parliament consenting.
    If Boris proposes a motion to hold General Election I dont think Corbyn would turn down the opportunity
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    No need for a vote. Queen takes advice of out-going PM who has to recommend someone likely to command confidence.

    In this case though, seems a good chance that Jezza will attempt a VONC on day one.
    If I was him, I'd wait until BJ makes some definite No Deal noises, unless the DUP immediately disown him.

    Given the strength of his victory in phase one of the leadership election, I think BJ will arrive with a healthy if potentially short honeymoon period on his own benches.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440

    Today so far we have had @isam arguing in favour of the reliability of opinion polls and @StuartDickson arguing against relying on Scottish subsamples. What fresh treats do we have in store?

    I'm going to write a thread praising Mark Reckless.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    justin124 said:

    I don't disagree with most of that. My point really was that Labour's wobble in Scotland reflects what has happened in GB as a whole. If Labour's national vote share recovers - as I expect - to at least 35%/36% , that is likely to be also reflected in its vote share in Scotland.
    What gives you ground for expecting that Labour GB-wide are going to recover to 35%? You haven’t even got a cohesive Brexit policy, and don’t look like getting one any time soon.

    Only way you might recover fast is if the Tories bounce up to MAJ levels. Ain’t gonna happen.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,800
    MikeL said:

    We already know Boris is going to say on Day 1 that he is going to renegotiate a deal.

    Surely all Con MPs will wait until at least September and probably early October before supporting a VONC. There have no need to support a VONC on 25 July - that's more than three months before the earliest possible leaving date.

    Exactly. Everyone is getting over-excited.

    Nothing happens until 5th September... But then things get interesting. ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,132

    Mr. Divvie, so, what you're saying is that Boris is the political equivalent of new recipe Irn-Bru?

    You wouldn't want it in your mouth and you certainly wouldn't swallow?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Meeks, I'm going to attempt mending two socks.

    All the sewn-up bits I did a year or so ago have stayed solid, but a couple of larger holes in other socks have developed. I'm contemplating using intertwined thicker, woollen thread for one, and attempting a patch for the other, though I'm undecided.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,800
    kjohnw said:

    IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,
    That would be a bad decision by Boris.

    The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.

    Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Today so far we have had @isam arguing in favour of the reliability of opinion polls and @StuartDickson arguing against relying on Scottish subsamples. What fresh treats do we have in store?

    My position on sub-samples has been gravely mid-represented here at PB over many, many years. It has moved from Straw Man to Tradition, and is therefore something I feel disinclined to counter.

    Folk hear what they want to hear. And remember what they want to remember.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    What gives you ground for expecting that Labour GB-wide are going to recover to 35%? You haven’t even got a cohesive Brexit policy, and don’t look like getting one any time soon.

    Only way you might recover fast is if the Tories bounce up to MAJ levels. Ain’t gonna happen.
    I have never been persuaded that the next election will be Brexit dominated in the way assumed by the commentariat. 2017 certainly wasn't - despite that being May's justification for calling it. Other issues will come to the fore with a likely receptive audience - long sick to death of Brexit.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    GIN1138 said:

    That would be a bad decision by Boris.

    The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.

    Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
    So, the summer hols of NUJ members takes priority over economic and social misery and the demise of the Union.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    GIN1138 said:

    That would be a bad decision by Boris.

    The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.

    Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
    An October election means an extension to December 31st and Nigel going you promised October 31st every time Boris appears anywhere.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    justin124 said:

    I have never been persuaded that the next election will be Brexit dominated in the way assumed by the commentariat. 2017 certainly wasn't - despite that being May's justification for calling it. Other issues will come to the fore with a likely receptive audience - long sick to death of Brexit.
    I’ve got to admire an optimist.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,132
    I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440
    Lordy

    Chris Davies: Tories choose sacked MP to fight seat despite expenses conviction

    Chris Davies lost his seat after a recall petition when he was convicted of faking expense claims, but his party still backs him.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chris-davies-ex-mp-sacked-for-faking-expenses-chosen-by-tories-to-fight-for-seat-11747921
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I’ve got to admire an optimist.
    It just happens to be my view - of course, I may be proved wrong.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,800
    eek said:

    An October election means an extension to December 31st and Nigel going you promised October 31st every time Boris appears anywhere.

    Yes probably but the timetable doesn't work any other way.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,057
    IanB2 said:

    I'd be surprised. Gove and him don't exactly get on. Rory wont serve. I cant see him being best pals with Hunt after this contest. And the zealots will be calling for a sweep out and jobs for 'real' leavers.

    Quite possibly he'll be down there with Corbyn with the incredulity of some of his appointments.
    I think it will be a very London cabinet for a government which will be hated in London and trying to appeal to the shires. Not very joined up thinking but we should get used to that.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    GIN1138 said:

    That would be a bad decision by Boris.

    The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.

    Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
    The issue with October election is he can’t campaign on renegotiating. He at least needs the possibility of renegotiation to win over moderate leavers . O/T I do wonder if Boris has something on Hunt and is holding back and is keeping his powder dry until Hunt has let off his big guns . I’m sure Boris is waiting his ideal moment to fire back
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Eagles, the upside, such as it is, is that if the blues lose, as seems probable, they can blame it on the candidate and not the party collectively.

    Mr. Divvie, possible. Could be a combination of that and realising he's promised jam tomorrow, even though the jam will be ready next year at the earliest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440

    Mr. Eagles, the upside, such as it is, is that if the blues lose, as seems probable, they can blame it on the candidate and not the party collectively.

    Mr. Divvie, possible. Could be a combination of that and realising he's promised jam tomorrow, even though the jam will be ready next year at the earliest.

    This election might end up rivalling the ‘Don’t vote for the Wizard, vote for the Lizard’ campaign.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited June 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    That would be a bad decision by Boris.

    The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.

    Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
    A VNOC passed in last week of July would still require a further 14 day delay prior to Dissolution. Polling Day could well be 19th September - beyond the main holiday period.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    Lordy

    Chris Davies: Tories choose sacked MP to fight seat despite expenses conviction

    Chris Davies lost his seat after a recall petition when he was convicted of faking expense claims, but his party still backs him.

    https://news.sky.com/story/chris-davies-ex-mp-sacked-for-faking-expenses-chosen-by-tories-to-fight-for-seat-11747921

    Well. I think all we can say about that is that loyalty is a virtue.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.

    He just doesn’t look happy.

    All these years scheming, conniving, lying, distorting, spinning and positioning; and pretending to like some of the biggest turds in London; and suddenly he realises that his brief term in office is going to be excruciating torture. He’ll wake up in a cold sweat every day.

    Even the hopeless Brown took a little pleasure when he finally reached the top of the pole.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Eagles, sounds as bad as being lost in a blizzard, then stabbed in the gizzards.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,800
    justin124 said:

    A VNOC passed in last week of July would still require a further 14 day delay prior to Dissolution. Polling Day could well be 19th September - beyond the main holiday period.
    Yes but effectively everyone would still have to cancel their holidays to deal with the aftermath of VONC.

    I just don't see anything happening before September.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1143171216439685122

    Please reply by 23rd July at the latest...
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.

    I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.

    An interesting article along those lines

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7173247/DOMINIC-LAWSON-super-sensitive-Boris-Johnson-learn-Margaret-Thatcher.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010
    DavidL said:

    What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.

    Johnson’s pitch is his character. Hunt is fighting on the territory his opponent has always chosen to fight on.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kjohnw said:

    The issue with October election is he can’t campaign on renegotiating. He at least needs the possibility of renegotiation to win over moderate leavers . O/T I do wonder if Boris has something on Hunt and is holding back and is keeping his powder dry until Hunt has let off his big guns . I’m sure Boris is waiting his ideal moment to fire back
    The issue is that Boris is completely incapable of campaigning. As the last week's events have proved. Just imagine that this had been the first week of a general election campaign - even Theresa May wasn't this bad.

    Boris' previous campaigns have consisted of nothing more than mouthing a few fatuous slogans - he has never faced a serious challenge until now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440
    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1143113796774502401

    This is why I will always be convinced Brexit is a disaster, the French are laughing at us.

    THE FRENCH ARE LAUGHING AT US FERFUXSAKE.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    edited June 2019
    There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.

    I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?

    Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    GIN1138 said:

    Yes but effectively everyone would still have to cancel their holidays to deal with the aftermath of VONC.

    I just don't see anything happening before September.
    We are going to have to agree to diagree as I don’t see anything happening in September it doesn’t work out for campaign reasons for all the reasons I’ve outlined over the past 2 weeks.

    If Boris is stupid enough to use an election to resolve the impasse he will need to do pit in July. As soon as you hit September the required extension destroys the Tory’s campaign
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440
    TOPPING said:

    There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.

    I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?

    Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.

    Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.

    I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,132
    PeterC said:

    An interesting article along those lines

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7173247/DOMINIC-LAWSON-super-sensitive-Boris-Johnson-learn-Margaret-Thatcher.html
    Ah, thanks.
    It certainly rings true (though I might quibble with the description of Gove as 'that brilliant Scot').
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155

    The issue is that Boris is completely incapable of campaigning. As the last week's events have proved. Just imagine that this had been the first week of a general election campaign - even Theresa May wasn't this bad.

    Boris' previous campaigns have consisted of nothing more than mouthing a few fatuous slogans - he has never faced a serious challenge until now.
    It gets better. Seems he is planning not to face MPs until September.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440

    Mr. Eagles, sounds as bad as being lost in a blizzard, then stabbed in the gizzards.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_Edwards#Second_comeback:_Edwards_vs._Duke,_1991
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,932

    I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.
    Might I suggest my seat of Bootle?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440

    Might I suggest my seat of Bootle?
    I've been urging him to fight a seat in Glasgow given the huge swings Ruth D achieved in 2017 he could easily win a Glasgow seat.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    edited June 2019

    Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.

    I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.
    Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't know :smile: )
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440
    edited June 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't know :smile: )
    I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.

    He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647

    I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.

    He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'
    Does that keep him as PM?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.

    I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.
    Hunt should prepare an advert showing the various contradictory positions Boris has taken recently. Hunt needs to drive a wedge between Boris's support factions, and he can't do that in debate if Boris won't show up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440
    TOPPING said:

    Does that keep him as PM?
    Possibly.

    I suspect Parliament will not try and replace him with Ken Clarke but instruct him to sign up to a/the customs union and/or membership of the single market.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Eagles, sounds about right given how politicians have generally been making the worst possible decision.

    We'd be better off staying than 'leaving' in such a feeble way, retaining the costs and losing the benefits. It's idiotic to leave the EU but remain in their customs union.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,932

    I'm going to write a thread praising Mark Reckless.

    It’s end of days here!!!!

    Who’s up for a pineapple pizza?
This discussion has been closed.