politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros
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Welcome to PB, Mr. Jamei.0
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I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you anticipate standing again?Tissue_Price said:
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.
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What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.Scott_P said:1 -
Mr. L, it's also possible he thinks that if he loses then Boris will be so bloody awful that criticism of Boris will end up vindicated.0
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Beaconsfield?Tissue_Price said:
I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you anticipate standing again?Tissue_Price said:
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.0 -
The responsibility also rests imho on the likely Tory rebel MPs. It would be extremely discourteous to the Queen to say the least to indicate that they will not bring down the new PM within days via Jezza's VONC, and then do precisely that.Jonathan said:
The responsibility of May (and indeed the new Tory leader and others) is to avoid putting the Queen in a difficult position. May should only resign when she has a clear successor as PM.Richard_Nabavi said:
We are in uncharted waters here, but bear in mind that it's ultimately the Queen who appoints the new PM, on the advice of the outgoing PM and if necessary palace officials. The test that the palace will apply is who can command a majority. If it looks as though no-one can, which seems quite possible, then it's unclear what happens (especially with the complication of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act), but the default is that the existing PM remains in post.Jonathan said:But that will no stop people complaining (like 2010). The howling will be deafening. May will have to have serious support from her ex cabinet to carry on.
I would hope that whoever becomes Tory leader quickly stomps on any howls of conspiracy and thanks May publicly for providing the space for him to form a government.
Fat chance of that if it's Boris and the crazy gang. But it's a nice idea.
In the end this may rest on the semantics of the wording, which iirc is "highly likely to command" confidence.0 -
If BoZo wins and goes for No Deal, maybe Hunt will vote for the VONCDavidL said:What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.
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Well good luckTissue_Price said:
I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you anticipate standing again?Tissue_Price said:
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.1 -
Nah, it is more that a successful entrepreneur did not come into politics to prance about on the back benches being ignored. He will want a top job, possible the top job, or I suspect he will be gone.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, it's also possible he thinks that if he loses then Boris will be so bloody awful that criticism of Boris will end up vindicated.
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If the VONC is to stop a no deal brexit then all the independents will certainly support it. They've already left their original party because it was too Brexity for them, they are certainly not going to abstain on a VONC if the result would be a no deal whatever the cost to their career.rottenborough said:
The issue is that not all independents/CHUK will vote down the Government. Nobody knows how many will, but some will be thinking they will be out of a job by autumn.noneoftheabove said:
Around that officially (3 or 4?) but effective majority a bit bigger.eek said:
What is today's Tory Government majority (isn't it 3)...noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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Trump's base won't believe it.TheScreamingEagles said:
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If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.justin124 said:
Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.StuartDickson said:
SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.malcolmg said:
Labour well on way to recovery I seeStuartDickson said:Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>
And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18
... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8
... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.0 -
I wouldn't say no. They might!tlg86 said:
Beaconsfield?Tissue_Price said:
I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you anticipate standing again?Tissue_Price said:
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.0 -
So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.0
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10 th Oct 1974 was first day of lectures for me in Durham. Arrived for Freshers' on 5th.nichomar said:
I suspect you’re two years younger than me.JohnO said:
Thursday October 10th 1974 was my first day at university (I'd voted at home that morning). Can remember almost everything, including staying up all night for the results. 45 years ago.....I'm old.stodge said:FPT
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.0 -
I think that he thinks that no deal is irresponsible. Perfectly acceptable as a negotiating tactic but ultimately just stupid. I don't think he would back it even if he is hinting otherwise for the purposes of the campaign.Scott_P said:
If BoZo wins and goes for No Deal, maybe Hunt will vote for the VONCDavidL said:What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.
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And/or that he's convinced Boris wouldn't last long as PM so wants to become the heir apparent.DavidL said:
What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.Scott_P said:0 -
Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.anothernick said:
If the VONC is to stop a no deal brexit then all the independents will certainly support it. They've already left their original party because it was too Brexity for them, they are certainly not going to abstain on a VONC if the result would be a no deal whatever the cost to their career.rottenborough said:
The issue is that not all independents/CHUK will vote down the Government. Nobody knows how many will, but some will be thinking they will be out of a job by autumn.noneoftheabove said:
Around that officially (3 or 4?) but effective majority a bit bigger.eek said:
What is today's Tory Government majority (isn't it 3)...noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
I have been arguing for a while on here that Boris will not become PM, but the holiday argument that someone posted here today has given me pause for thought. Do enough of them want a GE in August? Maybe they will hang fire until 5th September.0 -
It may depend on whether there's "a plan" - such as a cross-party candidate as an alternative. That is safer ground for many MPs (even if the initiative subsequently comes to nothing) than a VONC aimed straight at a GE. Another attraction is that it pre-empts Corbyn insisting he be given a chance, which would be the normal next step if the Tory PM has been rejected by the House.anothernick said:
If the VONC is to stop a no deal brexit then all the independents will certainly support it. They've already left their original party because it was too Brexity for them, they are certainly not going to abstain on a VONC if the result would be a no deal whatever the cost to their career.rottenborough said:
The issue is that not all independents/CHUK will vote down the Government. Nobody knows how many will, but some will be thinking they will be out of a job by autumn.noneoftheabove said:
Around that officially (3 or 4?) but effective majority a bit bigger.eek said:
What is today's Tory Government majority (isn't it 3)...noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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Might be one in Beaconsfield soonTheWhiteRabbit said:
Well good luckTissue_Price said:
I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you anticipate standing again?Tissue_Price said:
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.
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Maybe. After the excitement of Boris a safe pair of hands might look a better option. Will probably be in opposition though.williamglenn said:
And/or that he's convinced Boris wouldn't last long as PM so wants to become the heir apparent.DavidL said:
What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.Scott_P said:0 -
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
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I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.IanB2 said:So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
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Mr. B2, at the risk of depressing everyone, I think Grayling is a shoo-in.0
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https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1143131549929562112DavidL said:
What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.Scott_P said:0 -
Really?Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.IanB2 said:So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
Stewart was pretty definitive that he would not serve. Are Rudd and Boris not pretty much polar opposites? Not at all sure about Gove. Their relationship is also poisonous.
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What do you think the consequences of such a vote would be ?williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
A GE - won by who ?
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I think I'm right (?) that an incoming PM doesn't have to submit him/herself to a vote of confidence (ie the Queen's appointment being formally ratified by parliament)? So it's basically a case of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough"?noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
My uninformed reckon is that if Boris arrives mumbling about doing what he can to get a better deal, he'll be given a chance to see what happens. If he turns up in "full steam ahead to the sunlit uplands/cliff edge " mode.. not so much.0 -
If Tory MPs are resigning the Whip or witholding their support, it would be difficult for ex-Labour Independents not to support a VNOC. I doubt that Lady Hermon would support Boris either.rottenborough said:
The issue is that not all independents/CHUK will vote down the Government. Nobody knows how many will, but some will be thinking they will be out of a job by autumn.noneoftheabove said:
Around that officially (3 or 4?) but effective majority a bit bigger.eek said:
What is today's Tory Government majority (isn't it 3)...noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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I hadn't seen that when I made my comment but it is obvious that this campaign is going to be a lot sharper than once thought.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1143131549929562112DavidL said:
What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.Scott_P said:0 -
Ha ha. Barrel-scraping.Scott_P said:
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Ah yes, I forgot Rory said he wouldn't serve. He'd have a job if he wanted one. Rudd has some time for "liberal" Boris: she clearly flirted with endorsing him. Not picking Gove just prolongs the psychodrama - personally I'd leave him where he is. Forming a Cabinet is a balancing act - it's the lower ranks that you stuff with your supporters.DavidL said:
Really?Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.IanB2 said:So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
Stewart was pretty definitive that he would not serve. Are Rudd and Boris not pretty much polar opposites? Not at all sure about Gove. Their relationship is also poisonous.0 -
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1143166670036295680
Not sure that tweet reads exactly as Owen intended.0 -
If it led to a Farage majority, so what? He would face exactly the same issues.TGOHF said:
What do you think the consequences of such a vote would be ?williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
A GE - won by who ?0 -
I am shocked, you've said something uncomplimentary about a a Unionist politician.StuartDickson said:0 -
I'd be surprised. Gove and him don't exactly get on. Rory wont serve. I cant see him being best pals with Hunt after this contest. And the zealots will be calling for a sweep out and jobs for 'real' leavers.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.IanB2 said:So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
Quite possibly he'll be down there with Corbyn with the incredulity of some of his appointments.0 -
No need for a vote. Queen takes advice of out-going PM who has to recommend someone likely to command confidence.Harris_Tweed said:
I think I'm right (?) that an incoming PM doesn't have to submit him/herself to a vote of confidence (ie the Queen's appointment being formally ratified by parliament)? So it's basically a case of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough"?noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
My uninformed reckon is that if Boris arrives mumbling about doing what he can to get a better deal, he'll be given a chance to see what happens. If he turns up in "full steam ahead to the sunlit uplands/cliff edge " mode.. not so much.
In this case though, seems a good chance that Jezza will attempt a VONC on day one.0 -
If enough Conservative/DUP MPs publicly said before his appointment that they wouldn't back him, then May and the Queen would be in a difficult position.rottenborough said:
No need for a vote. Queen takes advice of out-going PM who has to recommend someone likely to command confidence.Harris_Tweed said:
I think I'm right (?) that an incoming PM doesn't have to submit him/herself to a vote of confidence (ie the Queen's appointment being formally ratified by parliament)? So it's basically a case of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough"?noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
My uninformed reckon is that if Boris arrives mumbling about doing what he can to get a better deal, he'll be given a chance to see what happens. If he turns up in "full steam ahead to the sunlit uplands/cliff edge " mode.. not so much.
In this case though, seems a good chance that Jezza will attempt a VONC on day one.0 -
I think picking a cabinet is also a lot easier when you have a 50+ majority rather than no majority at all. Excluding people at the moment looks unwise and self indulgent. That said May had a lot of dead and dull wood which really should be axed.Tissue_Price said:
Ah yes, I forgot Rory said he wouldn't serve. He'd have a job if he wanted one. Rudd has some time for "liberal" Boris: she clearly flirted with endorsing him. Not picking Gove just prolongs the psychodrama - personally I'd leave him where he is. Forming a Cabinet is a balancing act - it's the lower ranks that you stuff with your supporters.DavidL said:
Really?Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.IanB2 said:So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
Stewart was pretty definitive that he would not serve. Are Rudd and Boris not pretty much polar opposites? Not at all sure about Gove. Their relationship is also poisonous.0 -
Your concern is “touching”.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am shocked, you've said something uncomplimentary about a a Unionist politician.StuartDickson said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/ross-thomson-mp-denies-sexual-assaults-house-of-commons-bar0 -
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office, offering leaving with renegotiated deal or no deal and no £39billion by 31/10. if he wins majority then we leave on 31/10 come what may. if he loses JC goes 2ref, and IMO will lose such a ref.williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
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Stewart would look a bit of a dick if he took a job.. though it may be smart of Boris to offer one of he's going to try to heal the party (along with the Rudds and Goves). But I've seen plenty of people recommending he goes full-steam Leaver fantasy cabinet.DavidL said:
Really?Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.IanB2 said:So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
Stewart was pretty definitive that he would not serve. Are Rudd and Boris not pretty much polar opposites? Not at all sure about Gove. Their relationship is also poisonous.
Admittedly I'm from the Blairite/Cameroon/Stewarty/Cable-ite mushy middle.. but I see that course of action worsening rather than alleviating party discipline problems in the Commons, and also alienating moderate voters in the battle ahead.0 -
You really want to go down that route? REALLY?StuartDickson said:
Your concern is “touching”.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am shocked, you've said something uncomplimentary about a a Unionist politician.StuartDickson said:
https://www.google.se/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/ross-thomson-mp-denies-sexual-assaults-house-of-commons-bar
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-46856934
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/24/alex-salmond-arrested-charged-police-scotland/1 -
I come from the same place so not surprisingly I agree!Harris_Tweed said:
Stewart would look a bit of a dick if he took a job.. though it may be smart of Boris to offer one of he's going to try to heal the party (along with the Rudds and Goves). But I've seen plenty of people recommending he goes full-steam Leaver fantasy cabinet.DavidL said:
Really?Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.IanB2 said:So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
Stewart was pretty definitive that he would not serve. Are Rudd and Boris not pretty much polar opposites? Not at all sure about Gove. Their relationship is also poisonous.
Admittedly I'm from the Blairite/Cameroon/Stewarty/Cable-ite mushy middle.. but I see that course of action worsening rather than alleviating party discipline problems in the Commons, and also alienating moderate voters in the battle ahead.0 -
Bottler Boris cannot go for a snap election without two thirds of Parliament consenting.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office, offering leaving with renegotiated deal or no deal and no £39billion by 31/10. if he wins majority then we leave on 31/10 come what may. if he loses JC goes 2ref, and IMO will lose such a ref.williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
0 -
I don't disagree with most of that. My point really was that Labour's wobble in Scotland reflects what has happened in GB as a whole. If Labour's national vote share recovers - as I expect - to at least 35%/36% , that is likely to be also reflected in its vote share in Scotland.StuartDickson said:
If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.justin124 said:
Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.StuartDickson said:
SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.malcolmg said:
Labour well on way to recovery I seeStuartDickson said:Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>
And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18
... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8
... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.0 -
-
There is a difference between fact and fiction.TheScreamingEagles said:
You really want to go down that route? REALLY?StuartDickson said:
Your concern is “touching”.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am shocked, you've said something uncomplimentary about a a Unionist politician.StuartDickson said:
https://www.google.se/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/ross-thomson-mp-denies-sexual-assaults-house-of-commons-bar
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-468569340 -
We already know Boris is going to say on Day 1 that he is going to renegotiate a deal.
Surely all Con MPs will wait until at least September and probably early October before supporting a VONC. There have no need to support a VONC on 25 July - that's more than three months before the earliest possible leaving date.1 -
Mr. Divvie, so, what you're saying is that Boris is the political equivalent of new recipe Irn-Bru?0
-
Today so far we have had @isam arguing in favour of the reliability of opinion polls and @StuartDickson arguing against relying on Scottish subsamples. What fresh treats do we have in store?1
-
Indeed, one has been charged and one has not.StuartDickson said:
There is a difference between fact and fiction.TheScreamingEagles said:
You really want to go down that route? REALLY?StuartDickson said:
Your concern is “touching”.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am shocked, you've said something uncomplimentary about a a Unionist politician.StuartDickson said:
https://www.google.se/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/ross-thomson-mp-denies-sexual-assaults-house-of-commons-bar
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-468569341 -
If Boris proposes a motion to hold General Election I dont think Corbyn would turn down the opportunityTheScreamingEagles said:
Bottler Boris cannot go for a snap election without two thirds of Parliament consenting.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office, offering leaving with renegotiated deal or no deal and no £39billion by 31/10. if he wins majority then we leave on 31/10 come what may. if he loses JC goes 2ref, and IMO will lose such a ref.williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
0 -
If I was him, I'd wait until BJ makes some definite No Deal noises, unless the DUP immediately disown him.rottenborough said:
No need for a vote. Queen takes advice of out-going PM who has to recommend someone likely to command confidence.Harris_Tweed said:
I think I'm right (?) that an incoming PM doesn't have to submit him/herself to a vote of confidence (ie the Queen's appointment being formally ratified by parliament)? So it's basically a case of "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough"?noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
My uninformed reckon is that if Boris arrives mumbling about doing what he can to get a better deal, he'll be given a chance to see what happens. If he turns up in "full steam ahead to the sunlit uplands/cliff edge " mode.. not so much.
In this case though, seems a good chance that Jezza will attempt a VONC on day one.
Given the strength of his victory in phase one of the leadership election, I think BJ will arrive with a healthy if potentially short honeymoon period on his own benches.0 -
I'm going to write a thread praising Mark Reckless.AlastairMeeks said:Today so far we have had @isam arguing in favour of the reliability of opinion polls and @StuartDickson arguing against relying on Scottish subsamples. What fresh treats do we have in store?
0 -
What gives you ground for expecting that Labour GB-wide are going to recover to 35%? You haven’t even got a cohesive Brexit policy, and don’t look like getting one any time soon.justin124 said:
I don't disagree with most of that. My point really was that Labour's wobble in Scotland reflects what has happened in GB as a whole. If Labour's national vote share recovers - as I expect - to at least 35%/36% , that is likely to be also reflected in its vote share in Scotland.StuartDickson said:
If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.justin124 said:
Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.StuartDickson said:
SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.malcolmg said:
Labour well on way to recovery I seeStuartDickson said:Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>
And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18
... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8
... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.
Only way you might recover fast is if the Tories bounce up to MAJ levels. Ain’t gonna happen.0 -
Exactly. Everyone is getting over-excited.MikeL said:We already know Boris is going to say on Day 1 that he is going to renegotiate a deal.
Surely all Con MPs will wait until at least September and probably early October before supporting a VONC. There have no need to support a VONC on 25 July - that's more than three months before the earliest possible leaving date.
Nothing happens until 5th September... But then things get interesting.
0 -
You wouldn't want it in your mouth and you certainly wouldn't swallow?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Divvie, so, what you're saying is that Boris is the political equivalent of new recipe Irn-Bru?
0 -
Mr. Meeks, I'm going to attempt mending two socks.
All the sewn-up bits I did a year or so ago have stayed solid, but a couple of larger holes in other socks have developed. I'm contemplating using intertwined thicker, woollen thread for one, and attempting a patch for the other, though I'm undecided.0 -
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.0 -
My position on sub-samples has been gravely mid-represented here at PB over many, many years. It has moved from Straw Man to Tradition, and is therefore something I feel disinclined to counter.AlastairMeeks said:Today so far we have had @isam arguing in favour of the reliability of opinion polls and @StuartDickson arguing against relying on Scottish subsamples. What fresh treats do we have in store?
Folk hear what they want to hear. And remember what they want to remember.0 -
I have never been persuaded that the next election will be Brexit dominated in the way assumed by the commentariat. 2017 certainly wasn't - despite that being May's justification for calling it. Other issues will come to the fore with a likely receptive audience - long sick to death of Brexit.StuartDickson said:
What gives you ground for expecting that Labour GB-wide are going to recover to 35%? You haven’t even got a cohesive Brexit policy, and don’t look like getting one any time soon.justin124 said:
I don't disagree with most of that. My point really was that Labour's wobble in Scotland reflects what has happened in GB as a whole. If Labour's national vote share recovers - as I expect - to at least 35%/36% , that is likely to be also reflected in its vote share in Scotland.StuartDickson said:
If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.justin124 said:
Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.StuartDickson said:
SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.malcolmg said:
Labour well on way to recovery I seeStuartDickson said:Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>
And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18
... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8
... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.
Only way you might recover fast is if the Tories bounce up to MAJ levels. Ain’t gonna happen.0 -
So, the summer hols of NUJ members takes priority over economic and social misery and the demise of the Union.GIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.0 -
An October election means an extension to December 31st and Nigel going you promised October 31st every time Boris appears anywhere.GIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
0 -
I’ve got to admire an optimist.justin124 said:
I have never been persuaded that the next election will be Brexit dominated in the way assumed by the commentariat. 2017 certainly wasn't - despite that being May's justification for calling it. Other issues will come to the fore with a likely receptive audience - long sick to death of Brexit.StuartDickson said:
What gives you ground for expecting that Labour GB-wide are going to recover to 35%? You haven’t even got a cohesive Brexit policy, and don’t look like getting one any time soon.justin124 said:
I don't disagree with most of that. My point really was that Labour's wobble in Scotland reflects what has happened in GB as a whole. If Labour's national vote share recovers - as I expect - to at least 35%/36% , that is likely to be also reflected in its vote share in Scotland.StuartDickson said:
If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.justin124 said:
Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.StuartDickson said:
SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.malcolmg said:
Labour well on way to recovery I seeStuartDickson said:Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>
And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18
... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8
... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.
Only way you might recover fast is if the Tories bounce up to MAJ levels. Ain’t gonna happen.0 -
I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.1
-
Lordy
Chris Davies: Tories choose sacked MP to fight seat despite expenses conviction
Chris Davies lost his seat after a recall petition when he was convicted of faking expense claims, but his party still backs him.
https://news.sky.com/story/chris-davies-ex-mp-sacked-for-faking-expenses-chosen-by-tories-to-fight-for-seat-117479210 -
It just happens to be my view - of course, I may be proved wrong.StuartDickson said:
I’ve got to admire an optimist.justin124 said:
I have never been persuaded that the next election will be Brexit dominated in the way assumed by the commentariat. 2017 certainly wasn't - despite that being May's justification for calling it. Other issues will come to the fore with a likely receptive audience - long sick to death of Brexit.StuartDickson said:
What gives you ground for expecting that Labour GB-wide are going to recover to 35%? You haven’t even got a cohesive Brexit policy, and don’t look like getting one any time soon.justin124 said:
I don't disagree with most of that. My point really was that Labour's wobble in Scotland reflects what has happened in GB as a whole. If Labour's national vote share recovers - as I expect - to at least 35%/36% , that is likely to be also reflected in its vote share in Scotland.StuartDickson said:
If you’re happy being neck and neck with the useless Tories, in Scotland (!), then absolutely fine by me.justin124 said:
Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.StuartDickson said:
SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.malcolmg said:
Labour well on way to recovery I seeStuartDickson said:
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
And when given the choice between a full-sample, properly weighted poll showing SNP 38 Lab 17 Con 18
... or a small, unweighted sub-sample showing SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8
... even you must understand that most sane folk, and punters, will be trusting the full-sample poll.
Only way you might recover fast is if the Tories bounce up to MAJ levels. Ain’t gonna happen.0 -
Yes probably but the timetable doesn't work any other way.eek said:
An October election means an extension to December 31st and Nigel going you promised October 31st every time Boris appears anywhere.GIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.0 -
I think it will be a very London cabinet for a government which will be hated in London and trying to appeal to the shires. Not very joined up thinking but we should get used to that.IanB2 said:
I'd be surprised. Gove and him don't exactly get on. Rory wont serve. I cant see him being best pals with Hunt after this contest. And the zealots will be calling for a sweep out and jobs for 'real' leavers.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought the final 7 in the leadership (i.e. anyone who made the 5% cut) will be getting jobs. Of the rest (full Cabinet), Rudd, Mordaunt and perhaps Hinds are likeliest to stay on.IanB2 said:So who in the current cabinet do we think stands a chance of a job under Bottling Bozo? Mordaunt looks the only one completely safe? Lewis and the Saj maybe in with a chance.
Quite possibly he'll be down there with Corbyn with the incredulity of some of his appointments.0 -
The issue with October election is he can’t campaign on renegotiating. He at least needs the possibility of renegotiation to win over moderate leavers . O/T I do wonder if Boris has something on Hunt and is holding back and is keeping his powder dry until Hunt has let off his big guns . I’m sure Boris is waiting his ideal moment to fire backGIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.0 -
Mr. Eagles, the upside, such as it is, is that if the blues lose, as seems probable, they can blame it on the candidate and not the party collectively.
Mr. Divvie, possible. Could be a combination of that and realising he's promised jam tomorrow, even though the jam will be ready next year at the earliest.0 -
This election might end up rivalling the ‘Don’t vote for the Wizard, vote for the Lizard’ campaign.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the upside, such as it is, is that if the blues lose, as seems probable, they can blame it on the candidate and not the party collectively.
Mr. Divvie, possible. Could be a combination of that and realising he's promised jam tomorrow, even though the jam will be ready next year at the earliest.0 -
A VNOC passed in last week of July would still require a further 14 day delay prior to Dissolution. Polling Day could well be 19th September - beyond the main holiday period.GIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.0 -
Well. I think all we can say about that is that loyalty is a virtue.TheScreamingEagles said:Lordy
Chris Davies: Tories choose sacked MP to fight seat despite expenses conviction
Chris Davies lost his seat after a recall petition when he was convicted of faking expense claims, but his party still backs him.
https://news.sky.com/story/chris-davies-ex-mp-sacked-for-faking-expenses-chosen-by-tories-to-fight-for-seat-117479210 -
He just doesn’t look happy.Theuniondivvie said:I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.
All these years scheming, conniving, lying, distorting, spinning and positioning; and pretending to like some of the biggest turds in London; and suddenly he realises that his brief term in office is going to be excruciating torture. He’ll wake up in a cold sweat every day.
Even the hopeless Brown took a little pleasure when he finally reached the top of the pole.0 -
Mr. Eagles, sounds as bad as being lost in a blizzard, then stabbed in the gizzards.0
-
Yes but effectively everyone would still have to cancel their holidays to deal with the aftermath of VONC.justin124 said:
A VNOC passed in last week of July would still require a further 14 day delay prior to Dissolution. Polling Day could well be 19th September - beyond the main holiday period.GIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
I just don't see anything happening before September.0 -
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1143171216439685122
Please reply by 23rd July at the latest...0 -
Theuniondivvie said:
I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.
An interesting article along those linesTheuniondivvie said:I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7173247/DOMINIC-LAWSON-super-sensitive-Boris-Johnson-learn-Margaret-Thatcher.html0 -
Johnson’s pitch is his character. Hunt is fighting on the territory his opponent has always chosen to fight on.DavidL said:
What I find interesting about this is that Hunt is not showing any hesitation or reservations about blue on blue criticisms. This suggests to me that he thinks he has a genuine chance and is going for it. If he didn't I think he would be being more tactful and diplomatic about his future boss.Scott_P said:
0 -
The issue is that Boris is completely incapable of campaigning. As the last week's events have proved. Just imagine that this had been the first week of a general election campaign - even Theresa May wasn't this bad.kjohnw said:
The issue with October election is he can’t campaign on renegotiating. He at least needs the possibility of renegotiation to win over moderate leavers . O/T I do wonder if Boris has something on Hunt and is holding back and is keeping his powder dry until Hunt has let off his big guns . I’m sure Boris is waiting his ideal moment to fire backGIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
Boris' previous campaigns have consisted of nothing more than mouthing a few fatuous slogans - he has never faced a serious challenge until now.0 -
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1143113796774502401
This is why I will always be convinced Brexit is a disaster, the French are laughing at us.
THE FRENCH ARE LAUGHING AT US FERFUXSAKE.
1 -
There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.0 -
We are going to have to agree to diagree as I don’t see anything happening in September it doesn’t work out for campaign reasons for all the reasons I’ve outlined over the past 2 weeks.GIN1138 said:
Yes but effectively everyone would still have to cancel their holidays to deal with the aftermath of VONC.justin124 said:
A VNOC passed in last week of July would still require a further 14 day delay prior to Dissolution. Polling Day could well be 19th September - beyond the main holiday period.GIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
I just don't see anything happening before September.
If Boris is stupid enough to use an election to resolve the impasse he will need to do pit in July. As soon as you hit September the required extension destroys the Tory’s campaign0 -
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.TOPPING said:There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.0 -
Ah, thanks.PeterC said:Theuniondivvie said:I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.
An interesting article along those linesTheuniondivvie said:I wonder if Boris's malaise/lack of bounce/verge of a breakdown is his realisation that he's becoming genuinely unpopular and disliked among large swathes of the population? Dealing with unpopularity is part of the job description, but it's not something he's really had to encounter in large measures before. Depending on the likes of Pritti, Francois and Ross Thomson for his positive strokes is probably not how he envisaged his moment of triumph.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7173247/DOMINIC-LAWSON-super-sensitive-Boris-Johnson-learn-Margaret-Thatcher.html
It certainly rings true (though I might quibble with the description of Gove as 'that brilliant Scot').0 -
It gets better. Seems he is planning not to face MPs until September.anothernick said:
The issue is that Boris is completely incapable of campaigning. As the last week's events have proved. Just imagine that this had been the first week of a general election campaign - even Theresa May wasn't this bad.kjohnw said:
The issue with October election is he can’t campaign on renegotiating. He at least needs the possibility of renegotiation to win over moderate leavers . O/T I do wonder if Boris has something on Hunt and is holding back and is keeping his powder dry until Hunt has let off his big guns . I’m sure Boris is waiting his ideal moment to fire backGIN1138 said:
That would be a bad decision by Boris.kjohnw said:
IMO Boris will go for immediate snap election on taking office,williamglenn said:
The final chance to stop him no dealing will be at the end of October. If it really came down to it, an ad hoc parliamentary majority could depose him, choose a new PM and revoke Article 50.rottenborough said:Yes, but will they be sure enough on 23rd July that this is their final chance to stop Boris from No Dealing? That will be the gamble they need to think about.
The last thing he needs is loads of miserable and fed up journalists baying for his blood because they've all had to cancel their holidays in August.
Boris needs to let everyone go on holiday, spend August planning out his election campaign, writing his manifesto etc and then announce the election on 5th September for 17th October.
Boris' previous campaigns have consisted of nothing more than mouthing a few fatuous slogans - he has never faced a serious challenge until now.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_Edwards#Second_comeback:_Edwards_vs._Duke,_1991Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, sounds as bad as being lost in a blizzard, then stabbed in the gizzards.
1 -
Might I suggest my seat of Bootle?Tissue_Price said:
I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you anticipate standing again?Tissue_Price said:
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.
2 -
I've been urging him to fight a seat in Glasgow given the huge swings Ruth D achieved in 2017 he could easily win a Glasgow seat.TheValiant said:
Might I suggest my seat of Bootle?Tissue_Price said:
I hope so, but that will be up to local members in constituencies with vacancies (I think I am unlikely to stand in Don Valley again). Watch this space.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Do you anticipate standing again?Tissue_Price said:
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.2 -
Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't knowTheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.TOPPING said:There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership. ) 0 -
I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.TOPPING said:
Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't knowTheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.TOPPING said:There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership. )
He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'0 -
Does that keep him as PM?TheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.TOPPING said:
Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't knowTheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.TOPPING said:There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership. )
He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'0 -
Hunt should prepare an advert showing the various contradictory positions Boris has taken recently. Hunt needs to drive a wedge between Boris's support factions, and he can't do that in debate if Boris won't show up.TheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.TOPPING said:There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership.0 -
Possibly.TOPPING said:
Does that keep him as PM?TheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect Boris Johnson's plan is to go for No Deal but expect Parliament will put the kibosh on that.TOPPING said:
Not so sure - as we have seen as locally as here on PB, there is a very willing suspension of disbelief by all sides and I don't doubt Boris' ability to string each faction along until October 32nd. If I had to guess I would say that the anti No Dealers are on safer ground but who the hell knows (and no, @HYUFD you don't knowTheScreamingEagles said:
Boris Johnson is scared someone will ask him what did he offer/say to the anti No Dealers in the Parliamentary party to get them to back him.TOPPING said:There is no doubt that Hunt is getting a free hit on Boris every time he opens his mouth and at the same time is shaping the narrative.
I mean how lazy/complacent/confident is Boris' team? Hugely must be the answer. Does Boris really fear he will get slaughtered as soon as he opens his mouth?
Surely even they don't think that it can go on for much longer like this. Even Cons party members are not immune from one candidate relentlessly setting the agenda.
I suspect his answer will upset and enrage the pro No Deal membership. )
He'll be able to say to the ERG and the membership 'Well I tried for an October 31st exit but that perfidious Parliament....'
I suspect Parliament will not try and replace him with Ken Clarke but instruct him to sign up to a/the customs union and/or membership of the single market.0 -
Mr. Eagles, sounds about right given how politicians have generally been making the worst possible decision.
We'd be better off staying than 'leaving' in such a feeble way, retaining the costs and losing the benefits. It's idiotic to leave the EU but remain in their customs union.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to write a thread praising Mark Reckless.AlastairMeeks said:Today so far we have had @isam arguing in favour of the reliability of opinion polls and @StuartDickson arguing against relying on Scottish subsamples. What fresh treats do we have in store?
It’s end of days here!!!!
Who’s up for a pineapple pizza?0
