politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros
With the Tory leadership race taking place and the unique situation where party members will be electing a new PM there’s increasing focus on the polls and the possibility that the new leader could seek to call a general election.
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Greening, Lee and Grieve sacrificing their Tory careers could well be the best route out to break the deadlock.
People might not like the future parliament either but it'll probably give us the votes for either a revocation/another referendum or just to leave come what may.
Can I have some research money, please?
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.
A third of the party joined in the past year. Whether entryists or not, they presumably differ in their thinking from longer-established members.
The panels are, one imagines, already full to the brim with old-school Conservative members, so will miss out the entryists.
Guess so. The Kippers in particular have been joining in droves exactly for this moment.
Both major parties will probably be looking to defend themselves against this better in future.
Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>
Malcolmg said:
'Labour well on way to recovery I see '
In the context of the wider GB polling , those figures are not surprising. On the basis of the weekend polls which showed Labour on 26% , their GB share has dropped 14% since 2017. Panelbase shows a 10% drop in Scotland.
What was the rhyming slang for a 2:1?
A First was a Geoff (Hurst)
A 2:2 was a Desmond
A Third was a Douglas (Hurd)
But was a 2:1?
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.
And if we’re talking about a snap election, wholly impractical to agree nationally; the rushed negotiations would be incredibly divisive.
I don’t particularly care about the Conservative party, but nor do I wish to see it supplanted (or taken over) by a Faragist vehicle.
Well he’s been offered a £12 million a year deal out there but Rafa wants to remain in England/or a big European league.
Drifts with the tide, and you can see right through him.
Occasionally venomous.
https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/1143130190966611968
I like 'Jitters Johnson'.
Or 'Barking Boris'.
As for renegotiation, what renegotiation? The Tory pitch will be "vote Conservative this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). That way the train leavers mentioned in the tweet all vote Tory instead of Farage to get it done.
2 women, 1 man. All under 40. The man was a Muslim.
Highly representative I thought to myself - not.
The country won't tolerate what the Tory membership are demanding, another facet of the total impasse.
In any vaguely rational country it would be unthinkable. But given where we are..
As Boris is such a fine hider, perhaps we should have Wally stand against Hunt?
And I expect the Stop Brexit tactical voting sites are already in progress..
Someone like Hillary Benn or Ken Clarke.
If she tries to cling on in Parliament rather than resign then Corbyn would table a VONC and Tory MPs could justifiably back it/abstain since the government would not be one led by the party anymore.
Could a moderate tradition pull us back from the brink before we become the USA?
To be honest I dont think much of his strategist.
All Boris is doing is reinforcing he has something to hide. He is giving politicians a bad name!
His inadequecy for leadership of the country is glearingly obvious. Hunt is by far the best candidate. I would advise any Tory member to vote for Hunt...
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.
Edit - For epic trolling they should take their seats on July 12th,
So anyone who votes against him is committing career suicide. The whole thing this becomes a high stakes game of chicken. On present form, Johnson is ill equipped to win.
If it wasn't for Brexit I'd be voting for Hunt but genuinely undecided at the moment.
I would hope that whoever becomes Tory leader quickly stomps on any howls of conspiracy and thanks May publicly for providing the space for him to form a government.
Fat chance of that if it's Boris and the crazy gang. But it's a nice idea.