politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how well each pollster did at last month’s Euros
With the Tory leadership race taking place and the unique situation where party members will be electing a new PM there’s increasing focus on the polls and the possibility that the new leader could seek to call a general election.
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First like Remain!0
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Last like Newcastle United.0
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One day someone will do their Psychology PhD on why grown men do "First!" posts on new forum threads.0
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A late Autumn election might be best for everyone. There aren't the votes for anything in this parliament so sans proroguing, nothing will get through.
Greening, Lee and Grieve sacrificing their Tory careers could well be the best route out to break the deadlock.
People might not like the future parliament either but it'll probably give us the votes for either a revocation/another referendum or just to leave come what may.0 -
In the old days, the mods used to have a test post, which they'd delete an hour or so later, consequently buggering up all the post numbers. Jumpers for goalposts.Dadge said:One day someone will do their Psychology PhD on why grown men do "First!" posts on new forum threads.
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FPT
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.0 -
@Dadge is one of the best odds on bettors here so follow him and you'll make some..Endillion said:
It's to let everyone else know that they made the first post on the thread.Dadge said:One day someone will do their Psychology PhD on why grown men do "First!" posts on new forum threads.
Can I have some research money, please?0 -
Polling of Tory members. There is a problem here, isn't there?
A third of the party joined in the past year. Whether entryists or not, they presumably differ in their thinking from longer-established members.
The panels are, one imagines, already full to the brim with old-school Conservative members, so will miss out the entryists.0 -
DecrepitJohnL said:
Polling of Tory members. There is a problem here, isn't there?
Guess so. The Kippers in particular have been joining in droves exactly for this moment.
Both major parties will probably be looking to defend themselves against this better in future.
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Plaudits to Ipsos Mori on this occasion. Have any of the long-term pollsters never come out best in this sort of comparison?0
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H
Sheffield United and Norwich will save you that pain. 3rd from bottom though....Gallowgate said:Last like Newcastle United.
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StuartDickson said:
Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>
Malcolmg said:
'Labour well on way to recovery I see '
In the context of the wider GB polling , those figures are not surprising. On the basis of the weekend polls which showed Labour on 26% , their GB share has dropped 14% since 2017. Panelbase shows a 10% drop in Scotland.0 -
Talking of firsts...
What was the rhyming slang for a 2:1?
A First was a Geoff (Hurst)
A 2:2 was a Desmond
A Third was a Douglas (Hurd)
But was a 2:1?0 -
'Bottler Boris' isn't very good. Too hackneyed and the wrong connotations. No-one thinks Boris is like Gordon Brown, you'd be hard-pressed to think of two more different people.
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.0 -
I don’t disagree. But from the POV of the Tories, any proposed electoral pact is mischief making, and very much to their future disadvantage.Pulpstar said:(FPT)Farage has about 20% of the electorate who wish to vote for the Brexit party at the next election. What he does or doesn't do is as important as any of the other (Or presumptive other) actors leading the parties with substantial support and/or seat potential in the next GE - Corbyn, Johnson, Swinson, Sturgeon & Foster...
And if we’re talking about a snap election, wholly impractical to agree nationally; the rushed negotiations would be incredibly divisive.
I don’t particularly care about the Conservative party, but nor do I wish to see it supplanted (or taken over) by a Faragist vehicle.
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SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.malcolmg said:
Labour well on way to recovery I seeStuartDickson said:Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>0 -
Where is Rafa off to? Jim White reckons LFC with Klopp to Barca!0
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Neck and neck with the Tories. I noticed that the Survation subsample came up with - SNP 35 Lab 24 Con 8.StuartDickson said:
SLab look well and truly shafted. Unbelievably weak leadership in Scotland, unfit to govern in London, and 10 points down on UK GE 2017, with another UK GE imminent. Add in demotivated, talentless, decimated ground troops and they are about to lie back and think of England.malcolmg said:
Labour well on way to recovery I seeStuartDickson said:Panelbase have now published the detailed tables from yesterday’s Sunday Times poll of Scottish voters (sample: 1,024). Great poll for the SLDs who have the only statistically significant change in VI.
Westminster VI - Scotland
SNP 38% (nc)
Con 18% (nc)
Lab 17% (-2)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Brexit Party 9% (nc)
Greens 2%
UKIP <1%
Change UK <1%
https://www.drg.global/wp-content/uploads/ST-Tables-for-publication-200619.pdf
ElectoralCalculus gives following seat distribution:
SNP 50 seats (+15)
Lib Dems 5 seats (+1)
Con 3 seats (-10)
Lab 1 seat (-6)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?SCOTCON=18&SCOTLAB=17&SCOTLIB=13&SCOTNAT=38&SCOTBrexit=9&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&type=scotland&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base</p>0 -
China.dixiedean said:Where is Rafa off to? Jim White reckons LFC with Klopp to Barca!
Well he’s been offered a £12 million a year deal out there but Rafa wants to remain in England/or a big European league.0 -
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Election campaigns were much shorter in those days - in both 1974 elections there was only 3 weeks from announcement to polling day.stodge said:FPT
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.0 -
Jellyfish Johnson.Richard_Nabavi said:'Bottler Boris' isn't very good. Too hackneyed and the wrong connotations. No-one thinks Boris is like Gordon Brown, you'd be hard-pressed to think of two more different people.
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.
Drifts with the tide, and you can see right through him.
Occasionally venomous.
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Wasn't expecting this from publicity shy Paddy Power
https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/11431301909666119680 -
Does he still live on the Wirral? Know he has a pad in Gosforth.TheScreamingEagles said:
China.dixiedean said:Where is Rafa off to? Jim White reckons LFC with Klopp to Barca!
Well he’s been offered a £12 million a year deal out there but Rafa wants to remain in England/or a big European league.0 -
He does, his wife and daughters still live on the Wirral.dixiedean said:
Does he still live on the Wirral? Know he has a pad in Gosforth.TheScreamingEagles said:
China.dixiedean said:Where is Rafa off to? Jim White reckons LFC with Klopp to Barca!
Well he’s been offered a £12 million a year deal out there but Rafa wants to remain in England/or a big European league.0 -
Doesn't start with a Bee.Richard_Nabavi said:'Bottler Boris' isn't very good. Too hackneyed and the wrong connotations. No-one thinks Boris is like Gordon Brown, you'd be hard-pressed to think of two more different people.
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.
I like 'Jitters Johnson'.
Or 'Barking Boris'.0 -
Or vice versa.DecrepitJohnL said:Polling of Tory members. There is a problem here, isn't there?
A third of the party joined in the past year. Whether entryists or not, they presumably differ in their thinking from longer-established members.
The panels are, one imagines, already full to the brim with old-school Conservative members, so will miss out the entryists.0 -
It'll either be the 17th or the 24th. Simply put the Tories won't have the votes to do anything at all, hence the need for a fresh mandate. The idea being that wets like Grieve will either (a) be deselected or (b) be outvoted post election.stodge said:FPT
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.
As for renegotiation, what renegotiation? The Tory pitch will be "vote Conservative this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). That way the train leavers mentioned in the tweet all vote Tory instead of Farage to get it done.0 -
Boris has thought this through like a master tactician then?RochdalePioneers said:
It'll either be the 17th or the 24th. Simply put the Tories won't have the votes to do anything at all, hence the need for a fresh mandate. The idea being that wets like Grieve will either (a) be deselected or (b) be outvoted post election.stodge said:FPT
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.
As for renegotiation, what renegotiation? The Tory pitch will be "vote Conservative this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). That way the train leavers mentioned in the tweet all vote Tory instead of Farage to get it done.0 -
Fraught with danger I would have thought...RochdalePioneers said:
It'll either be the 17th or the 24th. Simply put the Tories won't have the votes to do anything at all, hence the need for a fresh mandate. The idea being that wets like Grieve will either (a) be deselected or (b) be outvoted post election.stodge said:FPT
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.
As for renegotiation, what renegotiation? The Tory pitch will be "vote Conservative this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). That way the train leavers mentioned in the tweet all vote Tory instead of Farage to get it done.0 -
I caught a segment on TV last week (forget which channel) and they had rounded up 3 Tory members to speak about the leadership.DecrepitJohnL said:Polling of Tory members. There is a problem here, isn't there?
A third of the party joined in the past year. Whether entryists or not, they presumably differ in their thinking from longer-established members.
The panels are, one imagines, already full to the brim with old-school Conservative members, so will miss out the entryists.
2 women, 1 man. All under 40. The man was a Muslim.
Highly representative I thought to myself - not.0 -
Thursday October 10th 1974 was my first day at university (I'd voted at home that morning). Can remember almost everything, including staying up all night for the results. 45 years ago.....I'm old.stodge said:FPT
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.1 -
I'm reminded of Camerons description of UKIP members as "Fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" Looking at the recent polling of Tory members, in particular about giving up the union, economic stability and the Tory party just to secure their precious Brexit, I find I'm seeing the Tory membership that way. How are they any different - I know several will read this so I wonder if they feel the same way about their fellow travellers.
The country won't tolerate what the Tory membership are demanding, another facet of the total impasse.0 -
AttilaTheScreamingEagles said:Talking of firsts...
What was the rhyming slang for a 2:1?
A First was a Geoff (Hurst)
A 2:2 was a Desmond
A Third was a Douglas (Hurd)
But was a 2:1?0 -
You might well be right, but if you are that really would be taking a disaster and doing everything in our power to make it much worse. Not only would it maximise the uncertainty so that businesses wouldn't even have a week's notice, it would also mean that there would be zero parliamentary time and no functioning government to set up the emergency legislation, regulatory changes, and international notifications which would be indispensable in the event of a no-deal crash-out.RochdalePioneers said:
It'll either be the 17th or the 24th. Simply put the Tories won't have the votes to do anything at all, hence the need for a fresh mandate. The idea being that wets like Grieve will either (a) be deselected or (b) be outvoted post election.
As for renegotiation, what renegotiation? The Tory pitch will be "vote Conservative this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). That way the train leavers mentioned in the tweet all vote Tory instead of Farage to get it done.
In any vaguely rational country it would be unthinkable. But given where we are..0 -
Thanks.Tissue_Price said:
AttilaTheScreamingEagles said:Talking of firsts...
What was the rhyming slang for a 2:1?
A First was a Geoff (Hurst)
A 2:2 was a Desmond
A Third was a Douglas (Hurd)
But was a 2:1?0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
As Boris is such a fine hider, perhaps we should have Wally stand against Hunt?0 -
You can't go into a No Deal Brexit without a lot of legal paperwork which hasn't been done yet. Any idea that we will have an election in October is pie in the sky.Richard_Nabavi said:
You might well be right, but if you are that really would be taking a disaster and doing everything in our power to make it much worse. Not only would it maximise the uncertainty so that businesses wouldn't even have a week's notice, it would also mean that there would be zero parliamentary time and no functioning government to set up the emergency legislation, regulatory changes, and international notifications which would be indispensable in the event of a no-deal crash-out.RochdalePioneers said:
It'll either be the 17th or the 24th. Simply put the Tories won't have the votes to do anything at all, hence the need for a fresh mandate. The idea being that wets like Grieve will either (a) be deselected or (b) be outvoted post election.
As for renegotiation, what renegotiation? The Tory pitch will be "vote Conservative this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). That way the train leavers mentioned in the tweet all vote Tory instead of Farage to get it done.
In any vaguely rational country it would be unthinkable. But given where we are..
And I expect the Stop Brexit tactical voting sites are already in progress..0 -
A Monty would rhyme better.Tissue_Price said:
AttilaTheScreamingEagles said:Talking of firsts...
What was the rhyming slang for a 2:1?
A First was a Geoff (Hurst)
A 2:2 was a Desmond
A Third was a Douglas (Hurd)
But was a 2:1?
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Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General ElectionScott_P said:0 -
I think it's quite smart - he's talking about bottling the debates, but he's really saying that Boris won't really dare to go for no-deal in October, which is supposedly Boris's main selling point. Uses a very present issue to tap into the membership priority.Richard_Nabavi said:'Bottler Boris' isn't very good. Too hackneyed and the wrong connotations. No-one thinks Boris is like Gordon Brown, you'd be hard-pressed to think of two more different people.
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.
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They seek him here, they seek him there ...Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
As Boris is such a fine hider, perhaps we should have Wally stand against Hunt?0 -
I suspect you’re two years younger than me.JohnO said:
Thursday October 10th 1974 was my first day at university (I'd voted at home that morning). Can remember almost everything, including staying up all night for the results. 45 years ago.....I'm old.stodge said:FPT
Afternoon all
Just to note - the last time we had an October election was 1974.
Wilson announced via a live tv and radio address on September 18th he was going to the country and the vote took place on October 10th.
Curiously, October 10th is a Thursday this year as well but the Conservatives lost the 1974 contest.
One option might be to call the election for Thursday October 17th so that would mean a truncated Party Conference season and the new Government would have two weeks (and presumably a mandate) to tell the EU what would happen next.0 -
Or in language he might understand, Boris the Caitiff Recreant.kinabalu said:
Doesn't start with a Bee.Richard_Nabavi said:'Bottler Boris' isn't very good. Too hackneyed and the wrong connotations. No-one thinks Boris is like Gordon Brown, you'd be hard-pressed to think of two more different people.
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.
I like 'Jitters Johnson'.
Or 'Barking Boris'.
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Ballsup Boris.Nigelb said:
Or in language he might understand, Boris the Caitiff Recreant.kinabalu said:
Doesn't start with a Bee.Richard_Nabavi said:'Bottler Boris' isn't very good. Too hackneyed and the wrong connotations. No-one thinks Boris is like Gordon Brown, you'd be hard-pressed to think of two more different people.
'Frit Boris' might be better. The faithful would pick up the echo.
I like 'Jitters Johnson'.
Or 'Barking Boris'.0 -
If Parliament votes him down a general election might not happen, we'd have 14 days for someone else to try and cobble together a majority in the Commons.kjohnw said:
Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General ElectionScott_P said:
Someone like Hillary Benn or Ken Clarke.0 -
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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Like Donald Trump there's always a tweet that makes Boris Johnson look like such a hypocrite.Tissue_Price said:1 -
But that will no stop people complaining (like 2010). The howling will be deafening. May will have to have serious support from her ex cabinet to carry on.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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The 22 have no rules they'd need to change. Boris would be Tory leader and May won't be. The 22 have no jurisdiction on anything other than that.kjohnw said:
Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General ElectionScott_P said:
If she tries to cling on in Parliament rather than resign then Corbyn would table a VONC and Tory MPs could justifiably back it/abstain since the government would not be one led by the party anymore.0 -
I'm not sure she particularly needs Cabinet support. She has nothing to lose; and the default position is that she remains in place until either someone can be recommended, or a GE is held, as said above.Jonathan said:
But that will no stop people complaining (like 2010). The howling will be deafening. May will have to have serious support from her ex cabinet to carry on.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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That would take about 300 MPs defecting from the Labour and Tory parties.TheScreamingEagles said:
If Parliament votes him down a general election might not happen, we'd have 14 days for someone else to try and cobble together a majority in the Commons.kjohnw said:
Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General ElectionScott_P said:
Someone like Hillary Benn or Ken Clarke.0 -
That’s not referring to Miliband ducking a debate though is it?Tissue_Price said:0 -
Nope, presumably it's the best Matt Chorley could findisam said:
That’s not referring to Miliband ducking a debate though is it?Tissue_Price said:
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The membership are deciding who will be the leader of the Conservative Party. If the person elected by the membership cannot command a majority in the House of Commons they will not be Prime Minister. This isn't a matter of Theresa May overturning the choice of the membership. It is the way our politics works. If the candidate chosen by the membership cannot command a majority they would face an immediate VONC in the Commons. Nothing the membership or the 1922 Committee can do about that. And if Theresa May tells the Queen that her successor as party leader cannot command a majority and recommends seeing if Corbyn can put a government together, there is nothing the 1922 Committee can do about that either.kjohnw said:
Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General ElectionScott_P said:0 -
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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Whatever happened to the Henry VIII powers to smooth regulatory changes that were mooted?Richard_Nabavi said:
You might well be right, but if you are that really would be taking a disaster and doing everything in our power to make it much worse. Not only would it maximise the uncertainty so that businesses wouldn't even have a week's notice, it would also mean that there would be zero parliamentary time and no functioning government to set up the emergency legislation, regulatory changes, and international notifications which would be indispensable in the event of a no-deal crash-out.RochdalePioneers said:
It'll either be the 17th or the 24th. Simply put the Tories won't have the votes to do anything at all, hence the need for a fresh mandate. The idea being that wets like Grieve will either (a) be deselected or (b) be outvoted post election.
As for renegotiation, what renegotiation? The Tory pitch will be "vote Conservative this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). That way the train leavers mentioned in the tweet all vote Tory instead of Farage to get it done.
In any vaguely rational country it would be unthinkable. But given where we are..0 -
We are in uncharted waters here, but bear in mind that it's ultimately the Queen who appoints the new PM, on the advice of the outgoing PM and if necessary palace officials. The test that the palace will apply is who can command a majority. If it looks as though no-one can, which seems quite possible, then it's unclear what happens (especially with the complication of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act), but the default is that the existing PM remains in post.Jonathan said:But that will no stop people complaining (like 2010). The howling will be deafening. May will have to have serious support from her ex cabinet to carry on.
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Perusing Ladbrokes. Boris is 9 to withdraw. Not tempted myself but I know some here think he might.0
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Shadsy's Christmas Bonus fund.Morris_Dancer said:Perusing Ladbrokes. Boris is 9 to withdraw. Not tempted myself but I know some here think he might.
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2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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Even Henry VIII needed more than a week!Philip_Thompson said:
Whatever happened to the Henry VIII powers to smooth regulatory changes that were mooted?Richard_Nabavi said:
You might well be right, but if you are that really would be taking a disaster and doing everything in our power to make it much worse. Not only would it maximise the uncertainty so that businesses wouldn't even have a week's notice, it would also mean that there would be zero parliamentary time and no functioning government to set up the emergency legislation, regulatory changes, and international notifications which would be indispensable in the event of a no-deal crash-out.RochdalePioneers said:
It'll either be the 17th or the 24th. Simply put the Tories won't have the votes to do anything at all, hence the need for a fresh mandate. The idea being that wets like Grieve will either (a) be deselected or (b) be outvoted post election.
As for renegotiation, what renegotiation? The Tory pitch will be "vote Conservative this Thursday (24th) and we leave the EU next Thursday (31st). That way the train leavers mentioned in the tweet all vote Tory instead of Farage to get it done.
In any vaguely rational country it would be unthinkable. But given where we are..0 -
That's three proven liars whose evidence we are asked to choose betweenAlastairMeeks said:0 -
Shadsy was offering 10/1 on Andrea Leadsom withdrawing one day before she did.Morris_Dancer said:Perusing Ladbrokes. Boris is 9 to withdraw. Not tempted myself but I know some here think he might.
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Very interesting. Hilary Benn or Kenneth Clarke may be as likely as JC to find a majority, in both cases as a GNU. Suspect there are lots of people who would be delighted to be party to stopping Boris running the country - about as many as there are determined to stop JC doing so.Scott_P said:
Could a moderate tradition pull us back from the brink before we become the USA?
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What is today's Tory Government majority (isn't it 3)...noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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I actually think Boris is being badly advised in not doing the debates.
To be honest I dont think much of his strategist.
All Boris is doing is reinforcing he has something to hide. He is giving politicians a bad name!
His inadequecy for leadership of the country is glearingly obvious. Hunt is by far the best candidate. I would advise any Tory member to vote for Hunt...0 -
This is not doing Hunt any good. He needs to think about spending some of his squillions on advertising, otherwise he is just letting Boris run down the clock.kinabalu said:
They seek him here, they seek him there ...Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
As Boris is such a fine hider, perhaps we should have Wally stand against Hunt?0 -
Surely Gove at 180 is a better trading option...TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy was offering 10/1 on Andrea Leadsom withdrawing one day before she did.Morris_Dancer said:Perusing Ladbrokes. Boris is 9 to withdraw. Not tempted myself but I know some here think he might.
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Gavin Esler is still a thing?Scott_P said:0 -
I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.0 -
400 MPs willing to ditch their own careers and able to agree amongst themselves that today is Monday. Good luck finding those unicorns.algarkirk said:
Very interesting. Hilary Benn or Kenneth Clarke may be as likely as JC to find a majority, in both cases as a GNU. Suspect there are lots of people who would be delighted to be party to stopping Boris running the country - about as many as there are determined to stop JC doing so.Scott_P said:
Could a moderate tradition pull us back from the brink before we become the USA?0 -
No, if cowardly Boris Johnson did pull out then Jeremy Hunt wins as per the precedent set in 2016.eek said:
Surely Gove at 180 is a better trading option...TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy was offering 10/1 on Andrea Leadsom withdrawing one day before she did.Morris_Dancer said:Perusing Ladbrokes. Boris is 9 to withdraw. Not tempted myself but I know some here think he might.
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Mr. Eagles, I would be surprised if Boris' self-awareness could break free of the all-consuming gravity exerted by his ego.0
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Has anyone checked the 1922 rules governing this contest?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, if cowardly Boris Johnson did pull out then Jeremy Hunt wins as per the precedent set in 2016.eek said:
Surely Gove at 180 is a better trading option...TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy was offering 10/1 on Andrea Leadsom withdrawing one day before she did.Morris_Dancer said:Perusing Ladbrokes. Boris is 9 to withdraw. Not tempted myself but I know some here think he might.
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That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.0 -
Though Sir Percy was notoriously faithful...kinabalu said:
They seek him here, they seek him there ...Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
As Boris is such a fine hider, perhaps we should have Wally stand against Hunt?
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The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.0 -
Tribal loyalties have a remarkable power in stopping people vote for what they would themselves want, though.algarkirk said:
Very interesting. Hilary Benn or Kenneth Clarke may be as likely as JC to find a majority, in both cases as a GNU. Suspect there are lots of people who would be delighted to be party to stopping Boris running the country - about as many as there are determined to stop JC doing so.Scott_P said:
Could a moderate tradition pull us back from the brink before we become the USA?
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It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.0 -
Around that officially (3 or 4?) but effective majority a bit bigger.eek said:
What is today's Tory Government majority (isn't it 3)...noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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For the LOLs Sinn Fein should turn up and take their seats on July 22nd.
Edit - For epic trolling they should take their seats on July 12th,0 -
I'd like to see a market on how many Tory MPs resign the whip/defect/VONC their own government this year.0
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I think so. It gives him the excuse he needs to deselect the hardline Remainers.Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.
So anyone who votes against him is committing career suicide. The whole thing this becomes a high stakes game of chicken. On present form, Johnson is ill equipped to win.0 -
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.
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New Tory member here, joined last September. I'm not even 40 yet, voted remain but not that bothered about Brexit, I joined to choose a leader who can stop Corbyn. Previously voted LibDem in more than one election, so I'm certainly not an entryist Farage supporter. Briefly looked into joining the ConHome panel but couldn't see how to do so.DecrepitJohnL said:Polling of Tory members. There is a problem here, isn't there?
A third of the party joined in the past year. Whether entryists or not, they presumably differ in their thinking from longer-established members.
The panels are, one imagines, already full to the brim with old-school Conservative members, so will miss out the entryists.
If it wasn't for Brexit I'd be voting for Hunt but genuinely undecided at the moment.
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Welcome @Jamei, on both fronts.Jamei said:
New Tory member here, joined last September. I'm not even 40 yet, voted remain but not that bothered about Brexit, I joined to choose a leader who can stop Corbyn. Previously voted LibDem in more than one election, so I'm certainly not an entryist Farage supporter. Briefly looked into joining the ConHome panel but couldn't see how to do so.DecrepitJohnL said:Polling of Tory members. There is a problem here, isn't there?
A third of the party joined in the past year. Whether entryists or not, they presumably differ in their thinking from longer-established members.
The panels are, one imagines, already full to the brim with old-school Conservative members, so will miss out the entryists.
If it wasn't for Brexit I'd be voting for Hunt but genuinely undecided at the moment.0 -
Do you anticipate standing again?Tissue_Price said:
It's a way in for some of usPulpstar said:
It's a way out for frankly everyone ^_^;;Tissue_Price said:
The irony is that Boris is best off being VONC'ed into an election, isn't he?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's probably right. If however the DUP were to pop up and say 'Never! Never! Never!', then we'd be in a different situation.Pulpstar said:I expect when push and shove come all Tories less perhaps Lee (The sole abstention ?) will allow Boris to become PM - but several will reserve the right to VONC should he go for "No deal".
The renegotiation fiction will hold for kissing hands.0 -
The responsibility of May (and indeed the new Tory leader and others) is to avoid putting the Queen in a difficult position. May should only resign when she has a clear successor as PM.Richard_Nabavi said:
We are in uncharted waters here, but bear in mind that it's ultimately the Queen who appoints the new PM, on the advice of the outgoing PM and if necessary palace officials. The test that the palace will apply is who can command a majority. If it looks as though no-one can, which seems quite possible, then it's unclear what happens (especially with the complication of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act), but the default is that the existing PM remains in post.Jonathan said:But that will no stop people complaining (like 2010). The howling will be deafening. May will have to have serious support from her ex cabinet to carry on.
I would hope that whoever becomes Tory leader quickly stomps on any howls of conspiracy and thanks May publicly for providing the space for him to form a government.
Fat chance of that if it's Boris and the crazy gang. But it's a nice idea.0 -
The issue is that not all independents/CHUK will vote down the Government. Nobody knows how many will, but some will be thinking they will be out of a job by autumn.noneoftheabove said:
Around that officially (3 or 4?) but effective majority a bit bigger.eek said:
What is today's Tory Government majority (isn't it 3)...noneoftheabove said:
2 is not enough, probably need closer to 10.eek said:
I think if Boris is elected and no one resigns the Tory whip - TM will step down. The problem occurs if 2 (or more) MP's resign the whip as Boris is elected - that puts May in a very difficult position.Richard_Nabavi said:
It wouldn't be her 'trying' anything, it is the constitutional position that a new PM is appointed only if it looks as though he or she will command the confidence of the House. Until such a person emerges, the previous PM remains in post, as per 2010. And it has zilch to do with the 1922 committee.kjohnw said:Theresa May will not overturn the choice of the Tory Membership, if she tries this, she will find the 22 committee quickly changes the rules on VONC on her and we will have PM Boris and if parlaiment votes him down then we have a General Election
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Glad to see the Cabinet officials catching up with us on PBNigelb said:
Tribal loyalties have a remarkable power in stopping people vote for what they would themselves want, though.algarkirk said:
Very interesting. Hilary Benn or Kenneth Clarke may be as likely as JC to find a majority, in both cases as a GNU. Suspect there are lots of people who would be delighted to be party to stopping Boris running the country - about as many as there are determined to stop JC doing so.Scott_P said:
Could a moderate tradition pull us back from the brink before we become the USA? We've been debating this for days! 0
