politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson
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I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
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Mr. Dadge, unlikely perhaps, but not impossible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Timms#Murder_attempt0 -
It happens every friday and Saturday night in pubs and clubs around the country when those acting like twats are removed from the premises.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
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Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=190 -
NickNickPalmer said:A curious incident this morning (I stress that this is nothing to do with the Field thing). A police officer (with EMERGENCY flak jacket, baton, etc.) called and politely said he was there to serve a criminal restraint order on me. I expressed surprise, and he looked a bit confused and asked if I was Martin N*** (I won't put the name here, but nobody I've heard of - however, a letter for him had arrived yesterday which I returned to sender). I said no and suggested he ask my landlord if they'd heard of him. He said "Oh, OK", and went off to ring my landlord's bell.
On reflection, several thoughts:
1. He should have asked who I was before announcing that he wanted to serve an order on me. If I had a nervous disposition I might have found it alarming.
2. On the other hand, he shouldn't have accepted my word that I wasn't Martin N***, and could reasonably have asked for ID.
3. It's a bit odd that he didn't show me identification himself. Anyone can dress up as an officer.
All minor stuff, but I do wonder whether I'd have been treated as deferentially if I'd been a black teenager.
no ID ? it was a strippogram
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Conservative minister struggles with angora management.isam said:
Tory MP in bust up with fluffy bunny murdererAlastairMeeks said:
Angora.rottenborough said:Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"
That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?3 -
FFS - why does Osborne write Tweets that could easily be misinterpreted.MikeSmithson said:0 -
Maybe Osborne has an interest in the Cities of London seat! It was recently said he wanted to try Kensington at the next election.MikeSmithson said:0 -
And at Labour Party conferences:FrancisUrquhart said:
It happens every friday and Saturday night in pubs and clubs around the country when those acting like twats are removed from the premises.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1499466/Heckler-82-who-dared-called-Straw-a-liar-is-held-under-terrorist-law.html0 -
Important wicket for england.0
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On full pay? I can't recall a minister being suspended before.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
If she really cared about the planet she;d lose a few poundsRichard_Nabavi said:
I think you might have found the fatal flaw in her plan to save the world.rottenborough said:Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"
That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?
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So we have weeks of politicians being attacked (and the reaction on social media is lol) and people joke about throwing acid in their face and then shock and outrage when one reacts.0
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Or 'disappeared' if it had been in certain other countries. But the good news is this is Britain.Philip_Thompson said:Intruder gets past security is heading to the Chancellor, gets stopped and escorted out. That clip?
In the USA she could have been shot.
"Stopped" is the word doing the heavy lifting for you there.
Love that phrase - 'doing the heavy lifting'. Came across it on here, never heard it before, can't get enough if it now.1 -
I don't know if it is pride so much as self interest. You'd assume that for example the prime ministers constiuency would be safe from hospital closure proposals for instance. Or that some eager to please junior housing minister wouldnt come up with a plan to build all over the green belt in the PM's home turf.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
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He was talking to me yesterday evening. Well, mostly listening, actually.AlastairMeeks said:
That would have been the pro response.GIN1138 said:Rory would have sat down with her, held her hand and talked through all of her concerns.
The photos are a hoot.
PS I once wrote to Mark Field about one of his constituents who was breaking the law on the minimum wage. Bastard never replied. Perhaps I should have gone to his office and clipped him round the ear to get him to pay attention.0 -
So in the week that the Chancellor pledged that the UK would be the first (and so far only) major industrial economy in the entire world to have zero carbon emissions these protestors "were defending our right to live ..." how exactly?OnlyLivingBoy said:
They were Greenpeace activists protesting against the climate emergency, so actually I would say they were defending our right to live in a world not being destroyed by rising temperatures and sea levels. But congratulations, you win today's award for pedantry, always a hard-fought category on PB.Philip_Thompson said:
These protestors weren't human rights defenders.OnlyLivingBoy said:
If you follow the link his speech contains so many platitudes at odds with his actual behaviour, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. For instance:Dura_Ace said:https://twitter.com/MarkFieldUK/status/1126432512727764992
LOL. What a twat.
"the UK remains committed to helping women all over the world to feel safe in the work they do, so that they can speak freely and be part of the change we all want."
Or
"we want a world in which... those fighting to improve human rights can do so without fear of discrimination, violence or intimidation."
Or
"human rights defenders often operate in the most difficult environments, and by exposing issues that the powerful would prefer to keep hidden, their work puts them in constant danger."
Oh dear.0 -
Probably, although it'll depend on the numbers counting the vote.tlg86 said:
Presumably the longer the delay the more likely it has succeeded.MikeSmithson said:
Still countingGIN1138 said:What was the upshot of the recall petition in Brecon?
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How do numbers count voters? I thought they used real peopleJackW said:
Probably, although it'll depend on the numbers counting the vote.tlg86 said:
Presumably the longer the delay the more likely it has succeeded.MikeSmithson said:
Still countingGIN1138 said:What was the upshot of the recall petition in Brecon?
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it made me groan so it must be good!AlastairMeeks said:
Conservative minister struggles with angora management.isam said:
Tory MP in bust up with fluffy bunny murdererAlastairMeeks said:
Angora.rottenborough said:Daily Mail: "A protester forcefully grabbed by Tory MP Mark Field at a dinner for City grandees is a rabbit wool knitter"
That's a job new to me. Do rabbits even have wool?0 -
Yep, so inconsequential that you're briging it up 14 years later. A point well made.Richard_Nabavi said:
And at Labour Party conferences:FrancisUrquhart said:
It happens every friday and Saturday night in pubs and clubs around the country when those acting like twats are removed from the premises.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1499466/Heckler-82-who-dared-called-Straw-a-liar-is-held-under-terrorist-law.html0 -
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On topic*
The case of the cyclist who was ruled against for hitting a woman who was on her phone is an interesting one. It seems that on the one hand she was on her phone and not looking at the road, while on the other he was barrelling down the road while there were people (rightly or wrongly) on the road, of which she was one and that meant she had right of way or precedence. It seems this latter point was germane to the case.
*just kidding, don't tell me off please @NickPalmer0 -
TBF the condemnation would have been more muted if he was responding to an attack.FrancisUrquhart said:So we have weeks of politicians being attacked (and the reaction on social media is lol) and people joke about throwing acid in their face and then shock and outrage when one reacts.
I think Mark Field knows he behaved badly.
'Norfolk Passmore's' summary down the thread is IMO a very fair and accurate one.0 -
Sky News - Brecon & Radnor heads for by-election as recall vote passes.0
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Shouldn't they count as the recall votes come in? They could have one of those thermometers like they used to have outside churches so we could see how it was going.MikeSmithson said:
Still countingGIN1138 said:What was the upshot of the recall petition in Brecon?
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Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?0
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The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=190 -
Osborne in touch with Londoners concerns judging by the importance allocated to each front page storyMikeSmithson said:0 -
Oh I don't think the risk to himself will be at the forefront of his thoughts so much as the risk to his govt/party. Certainly I don't think there's any chance of his wanting a GE until the Farage threat has been neutralised.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=190 -
by-election in Brecon0
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Way more than I expected. Looks like almost all recall petitions will be successful.tlg86 said:https://tinyurl.com/y4nq3b42
10,005 (19%) signed it.0 -
That's the wrong way round.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dadge, unlikely perhaps, but not impossible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Timms#Murder_attempt0 -
They were drawing attention to the most pressing issue of our time in a reasonable and nonviolent fashion. They even put on nice frocks so as not to upset the chichi vibe. I don't think they deserved to be body slammed by a pumped up Tory MP.Philip_Thompson said:
So in the week that the Chancellor pledged that the UK would be the first (and so far only) major industrial economy in the entire world to have zero carbon emissions these protestors "were defending our right to live ..." how exactly?OnlyLivingBoy said:
They were Greenpeace activists protesting against the climate emergency, so actually I would say they were defending our right to live in a world not being destroyed by rising temperatures and sea levels. But congratulations, you win today's award for pedantry, always a hard-fought category on PB.Philip_Thompson said:
These protestors weren't human rights defenders.OnlyLivingBoy said:
If you follow the link his speech contains so many platitudes at odds with his actual behaviour, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. For instance:Dura_Ace said:https://twitter.com/MarkFieldUK/status/1126432512727764992
LOL. What a twat.
"the UK remains committed to helping women all over the world to feel safe in the work they do, so that they can speak freely and be part of the change we all want."
Or
"we want a world in which... those fighting to improve human rights can do so without fear of discrimination, violence or intimidation."
Or
"human rights defenders often operate in the most difficult environments, and by exposing issues that the powerful would prefer to keep hidden, their work puts them in constant danger."
Oh dear.
Greenpeace would no doubt say that whatever the UK has promised is not enough, and they are probably right.1 -
11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.Nigel_Foremain said:
The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
Also, fewer.0 -
I wonder if he'll stand in the By Election.JackW said:Sky News - Brecon & Radnor heads for by-election as recall vote passes.
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LD winning there? They presumably start favorite, Jack?JackW said:Sky News - Brecon & Radnor heads for by-election as recall vote passes.
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I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.Philip_Thompson said:
The voice of sanity.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.0 -
That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.tlg86 said:Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?
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Well, if you want a more recent example, here you go:Theuniondivvie said:
Yep, so inconsequential that you're briging it up 14 years later. A point well made.Richard_Nabavi said:
And at Labour Party conferences:FrancisUrquhart said:
It happens every friday and Saturday night in pubs and clubs around the country when those acting like twats are removed from the premises.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1499466/Heckler-82-who-dared-called-Straw-a-liar-is-held-under-terrorist-law.html
https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/journalist-ejected-like-sack-of-potatoes-from-jewish-labour-groups-event-with-john-mcdonnell-over-accreditation-dispute/
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I would usually agree. But in this case I think the "important MP premium" is already priced in. Boris already has a few thousand on his majority because he's Boris, previously the Mayor of London, mega-celebrity etc. etc. I don't see that going up any further because he's PM.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
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The ES runs a lot on knife crime.isam said:
Osborne in touch with Londoners concerns judging by the importance allocated to each front page storyMikeSmithson said:
But it's easy to see why the Field probe is top story. It's got a compelling image, which is vital for a front page. It's being talked about around the water-cooler and people have starkly differing opinions as this thread illustrates. It involves a fairly prominent figure in London and UK politics, and has a tangential relationship to the Tory leadership scrap. It's a developing story.
Of course it's the ES lead today - total no-brainer.0 -
Good point. I like a bit of pedantry, and indeed 11% is even better news!Endillion said:
11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.Nigel_Foremain said:
The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
Also, fewer.0 -
the public like kicking out policiticans shocker....OblitusSumMe said:
Way more than I expected. Looks like almost all recall petitions will be successful.tlg86 said:https://tinyurl.com/y4nq3b42
10,005 (19%) signed it.0 -
Two thirds of the size of the Peterborough recall. Do you think that's due to the rural nature of the seat or does it suggest the constituents aren't quite as pissed off about it as they were with Onasanya?AlastairMeeks said:
That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.tlg86 said:Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?
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Four parties within 3% of each other. Should make an FPTP election even more of a lottery than usual.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=190 -
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?0 -
Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?kjh said:
I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.Philip_Thompson said:
The voice of sanity.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.0 -
Mr. Song, if things stay like that *and* the polls are more or less correct.
Given current turbulence, I'm glad not to have any bets on the next election.0 -
Hopefully it will be the nail in the coffin of a ludicrous system that should have been reformed long agological_song said:
Four parties within 3% of each other. Should make an FPTP election even more of a lottery than usual.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=190 -
Thick as mince, British schooling isn't what it used to be.Nigel_Foremain said:
The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
As for the recall petitions I think they are a great idea and I'm glad they are working.0 -
New thread folks0
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Hold on when was the fieldwork? Does this blow @HYUFD's theory of Boris reclaiming BXP voters back to the fold. I'm sure the number he had was higher than 3% though...Nigel_Foremain said:
The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=190 -
3% fewer fascist? What grammar planet does that come from?Endillion said:
11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.Nigel_Foremain said:
The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
Also, fewer.1 -
Abba-tastic as Fernando falls :FrancisUrquhart said:Important wicket for england.
Can you hear the wicket fall Fernando?
I remember long ago another starry match like this
In the firelight Fernando
You were humming to yourself and softly stroked the ball
You couldn't see the distant Rashid
And the sounds of cat calls were coming from afar0 -
Absolument non! Philip wants to hold England at its current borders. And everyone else can F*ck Off.Nigel_Foremain said:
Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?kjh said:
I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.Philip_Thompson said:
The voice of sanity.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.0 -
Anyone still supporting Brexit and calling someone thick as mince is hilarious. Do you still believe in Santa also? (Sorry to break it to you Brexit supporters)Brom said:
Thick as mince, British schooling isn't what it used to be.Nigel_Foremain said:
The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
As for the recall petitions I think they are a great idea and I'm glad they are working.0 -
https://me.me/embed/i/8356152TOPPING said:
3% fewer fascist? What grammar planet does that come from?Endillion said:
11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.Nigel_Foremain said:
The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
Also, fewer.
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I think when England was last England it also included Calais, so I thought he might want to claim it. If they refused to cooperate this would be his casus bellend.TOPPING said:
Absolument non! Philip wants to hold England at its current borders. And everyone else can F*ck Off.Nigel_Foremain said:
Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?kjh said:
I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.Philip_Thompson said:
The voice of sanity.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.0 -
Ah Soz. Hadn't seen that v funny.logical_song said:
https://me.me/embed/i/8356152TOPPING said:
3% fewer fascist? What grammar planet does that come from?Endillion said:
11.5%. Alternatively, 3% of the country used to be fascist but no longer are.Nigel_Foremain said:
The country has become 3% less fascist! That is a tiny bit of good news.Foxy said:
Yes, but with the latest Yougov anything could happen. The very risk may tilt him to the WA (plus bullshit justification) rather than GE.Dadge said:
I'd put the chance of BJ losing his seat at less than 10%. Historically, electors have exhibited pride in having the PM as their MP, and their vote share has been boosted accordingly. For Labour to waste resources on attempts to oust BJ from his seat would be foolhardy.isam said:
You’re on 👍🏻El_Capitano said:
Excellent. Let's put a fiver on it.isam said:
I’ll lay you evens. How much?El_Capitano said:So I believe it's very plausible, maybe even probable, that Boris will lose his seat at the next election. Like @Mysticrose, if I could find anywhere to put money on it, I would.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080?s=19
Also, fewer.0 -
Phil explained to us yesterday that he was happy to hold England's border "as is".Nigel_Foremain said:
I think when England was last England it also included Calais, so I thought he might want to claim it. If they refused to cooperate this would be his casus bellend.TOPPING said:
Absolument non! Philip wants to hold England at its current borders. And everyone else can F*ck Off.Nigel_Foremain said:
Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?kjh said:
I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.Philip_Thompson said:
The voice of sanity.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.0 -
There would be something quite amusing about Osborne becoming MP for the City of London.0
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has he started to wear purple yet and claim to be the Son of God?TOPPING said:
Phil explained to us yesterday that he was happy to hold England's border "as is".Nigel_Foremain said:
I think when England was last England it also included Calais, so I thought he might want to claim it. If they refused to cooperate this would be his casus bellend.TOPPING said:
Absolument non! Philip wants to hold England at its current borders. And everyone else can F*ck Off.Nigel_Foremain said:
Agreeing with Philip_Thompson is very worrying for you. When will you be calling for the invasion of Calais?kjh said:
I'm getting seriously worried about this but I agree with you again. When I read the report it sounded awful, but what I saw seemed ok to me. He wasn't violent, but just held her and then escorted her out. She must have expected to be removed. He didn't hold her in a way that would have been too familiar. If he had held her arms tight it could have caused bruising. I'm obviously missing something but what he did seemed effective with minimum trauma.Philip_Thompson said:
The voice of sanity.Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth is the Mark Field fuss about? He grabbed a disrupting trespasser and escorted her out. He wasn't hitting her or putting a stranglehold on her or pushing her to the ground. The world has gone completely mad if this is seen as an excessive reaction.
Seriously if you invade someone else's space then being escorted out is reasonable. He didn't punch her or anything like that.0 -
I suspect the emotional triggers to vote aren't quite as strong (both around the nature of the offence and the person). That said, six voting places across a constituency that size isn't much.tlg86 said:
Two thirds of the size of the Peterborough recall. Do you think that's due to the rural nature of the seat or does it suggest the constituents aren't quite as pissed off about it as they were with Onasanya?AlastairMeeks said:
That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.tlg86 said:Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?
Either way, I agree with Alistair that it would take some courage to readopt him. It's not a nailed on Tory-hold. There's a strong LD presence there, and although there's not much Brexit/UKIP history I think it's a leave area. Tories' best hope is to find a strong mainstream local candidate, probably malleable enough to sign up to whatever the party line ends up being on Brexit while making some nice noises about farmers.
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It could be either of those. But note that both the Conservatives and Labour were working for a recall in Peterborough, while only the Lib Dems were in Brecon & Radnor. That might be part of it.tlg86 said:
Two thirds of the size of the Peterborough recall. Do you think that's due to the rural nature of the seat or does it suggest the constituents aren't quite as pissed off about it as they were with Onasanya?AlastairMeeks said:
That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.tlg86 said:Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?
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That was a bog standard negligence and contributory negligence case.TOPPING said:On topic*
The case of the cyclist who was ruled against for hitting a woman who was on her phone is an interesting one. It seems that on the one hand she was on her phone and not looking at the road, while on the other he was barrelling down the road while there were people (rightly or wrongly) on the road, of which she was one and that meant she had right of way or precedence. It seems this latter point was germane to the case.
*just kidding, don't tell me off please @NickPalmer
In the particular circumstances, the judge decided that the cyclist should really have avoided her if he'd been a competent cyclist, and she should really have avoided him if she'd been a competent pedestrian. So the negligence of both contributed to the accident. As it happened, she was the one injured, although the same would have applied if he'd fallen off and broken his collarbone while she'd been unscathed - she'd have owed him for part but not all of the costs incurred.
It's interesting enough but not in any way groundbreaking law.0 -
Thanks for that Gin. 5th Sept for a 17th Oct election sounds like a plan.
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He assaulted her several times , a real nasty piece of work, not surprisingly the toffs support him beating up a commoner.Charles said:
It wasn’t “grabbing someone by the neckydoethur said:
I think however that 'using reasonable force' does not include grabbing someone by the neck, which is a very stupid and risky (in all senses of that word) thing to do. It's doubly so given he was not security and had no actual standing in the case. I don't think he'll be charged, because it seems unlikely he would be convicted on this evidence, but I reckon he'll be given a very strong telling off.JackW said:I'd have carried out a citizens arrest and accordingly used reasonable force to remove the threat and in short order transfer the potential attacker from my lawful custody to the first available constable.
At the same time, Greenpeace are a bunch of fat, pompous, hypocritical and often violent toadies who are absolutely unfit to lecture anyone else on violence or over-reaction, so they are unlikely to get much sympathy. Meanwhile Aaron Bastani, who under his real name Aaron Peters has a criminal record for violence and public disorder, is worse.
He held the back of her neck with one hand in the standard method to control movement without injuring someone0 -
I have £2 on Betfair exchange on J. Hunt to win ( small change I know, just learning the ropes ) winning £25 , what do I do now ? Thanks for any answers.0
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Welcome, @flagman. Depends what you want to achieve! It’s probably worth asking on the new thread about the by-election, otherwise your post here might get lost.flagman said:I have £2 on Betfair exchange on J. Hunt to win ( small change I know, just learning the ropes ) winning £25 , what do I do now ? Thanks for any answers.
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