politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brecon & Radnor recall petition succeeds and an early by-e
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The government whips knew the numbers were within a few votes and tried all sorts of blandishments to get Frank Maguire (Independent Nationalist for Fermanagh and South Tyrone) to vote for the government. He abstained in person. Had Maguire voted for the government a tie would have had the Speaker vote to maintain the status quo.Mysticrose said:
Remember it so well. It was live on Radio 4. At the last minute Jim appealed in his speech to successive members opposite. A lot of commentators thought he'd swung it back. But as you say, sensationally, he lost by 1 vote and the rest, as they say, is history.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
A counter factual looms ....0 -
I think your figures are correct given that Labour supplies two Deputy Speakers with the Tories supplying just one.Mysticrose said:
3 surely?not_on_fire said:
It will fall to 2 if an opposition party wins the by-election.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
It was 5 this morning wasn't it? Or not. It's getting so tight it's quite hard to work out!0 -
Seems even among the lefties is my office Mark Field is getting huge support. I think the main consideration is the 'victim' is a professional protester not a member of the public._Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
Reckon the hand wringers and Theresa May have misjudged the public mood on this one (again).0 -
No - Nick Brown moved the writ for Peterborough.MikeSmithson said:
I think that the writ is automatically triggered by the Speaker when is he is formally informed of the petition outcome.Philip_Thompson said:
Does the writ for the by election get moved immediately? Or can it be delayed a while until the leadership contest is over and potentially a General Election is called?MikeSmithson said:
That's what happened with Gorton in 2017Philip_Thompson said:If a General Election is called then the by-election is cancelled even if the writ has been moved already right?
I seem to recall a by-election writ in late 2009 or early 2010 not being moved for about 6 months until it became moot.0 -
I've never understood why political parties get to decide the date of by-elections.MikeSmithson said:
I think that the writ is automatically triggered by the Speaker when is he is formally informed of the petition outcome.Philip_Thompson said:
Does the writ for the by election get moved immediately? Or can it be delayed a while until the leadership contest is over and potentially a General Election is called?MikeSmithson said:
That's what happened with Gorton in 2017Philip_Thompson said:If a General Election is called then the by-election is cancelled even if the writ has been moved already right?
I seem to recall a by-election writ in late 2009 or early 2010 not being moved for about 6 months until it became moot.0 -
Thanks. Just watched all three. As far as I am concerned, that is the end of the matter.Mysticrose said:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvLI_S7vN_8
There you go. Edit: this is it. Bad quality though.0 -
Chucka Umunna has restored the LDs to 12!not_on_fire said:
Not sure if that table is up to date. I think the LD seats total should be 11, one down from the GE - didn't the Lib Dem MP for Eastbourne resign the whip?Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?0 -
Somehow, I don't think twitter is representative of public reaction on this._Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.2 -
Have you seen his statement?_Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
May has 'suspended' him - not sacked him - so the confident predictions of 'sacked and resigned as an MP by the end of the day' may have been a tad premature.
Lets also wait to see what emerges about the 'innocent member of the public'....
And if you'd ever read anything I'd written on Boris your definition of sycophant is shall we say, curious.0 -
Brexit Party have no chance.Pulpstar said:
Yep that lot looks about right, BRP and the outsiders Lab, Plaid, Green probably all too short.MikeSmithson said:0 -
They even organised MP's to drink in relays with Maguire (they knew no single MP could match him).JackW said:
The government whips knew the numbers were within a few votes and tried all sorts of blandishments to get Frank Maguire (Independent Nationalist for Fermanagh and South Tyrone) to vote for the government. He abstained in person. Had Maguire voted for the government a tie would have had the Speaker vote to maintain the status quo.Mysticrose said:
Remember it so well. It was live on Radio 4. At the last minute Jim appealed in his speech to successive members opposite. A lot of commentators thought he'd swung it back. But as you say, sensationally, he lost by 1 vote and the rest, as they say, is history.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
A counter factual looms ....1 -
Given the Tories need those Brexit votes - Boris isn't going to win those votes if Nigel spends the entire campaign shouting October 31st and liar....Mysticrose said:
Surely if he goes to the country on the basis that the only way to deliver Brexit is to give him a Commons majority that will work?eek said:
So Boris is going to run in an election where the Brexit advert will be Boris confirming we leave on October 31st Deal or No Deal with us now leaving in December.GIN1138 said:
I think he'll announce it on 5th September (first day back after summer recess) and hold it on 17th October.Mysticrose said:
That's my view.GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.
This will also be enough to get the EU to push back our "departure" date to 31st December I'd have thought...
That just doesn't work for the Tories...
Well, if they really believe the country wants Brexit.
Which I don't.
As I've stated for over a week if Boris is going to call an election he needs to be it during the week beginning July 22nd otherwise it's just not possible...0 -
But Mercer had a vote in the leadership election , so has clearly not resigned the Whip.TheValiant said:
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.0 -
The Tories should stand aside to give them a clear run against the Lib Dems.Artist said:
Brexit Party have no chance.Pulpstar said:
Yep that lot looks about right, BRP and the outsiders Lab, Plaid, Green probably all too short.MikeSmithson said:0 -
It was the mad look on his face as he pushed her her out. Why did none of the other 350 guests take action?CarlottaVance said:
Have you seen his statement?_Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
May has 'suspended' him - not sacked him - so the confident predictions of 'sacked and resigned as an MP by the end of the day' may have been a tad premature.
Lets also wait to see what emerges about the 'innocent member of the public'....
And if you'd ever read anything I'd written on Boris your definition of sycophant is shall we say, curious.0 -
Everything turns on whether one of the four parties can break out of the pack, towards the end.eek said:
Given the Tories need those Brexit votes - Boris isn't going to win those votes if Nigel spends the entire campaign shouting October 31st and liar....Mysticrose said:
Surely if he goes to the country on the basis that the only way to deliver Brexit is to give him a Commons majority that will work?eek said:
So Boris is going to run in an election where the Brexit advert will be Boris confirming we leave on October 31st Deal or No Deal with us now leaving in December.GIN1138 said:
I think he'll announce it on 5th September (first day back after summer recess) and hold it on 17th October.Mysticrose said:
That's my view.GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.
This will also be enough to get the EU to push back our "departure" date to 31st December I'd have thought...
That just doesn't work for the Tories...
Well, if they really believe the country wants Brexit.
Which I don't.0 -
If we’re going to criminalise Tory MPs for looking mad.....MikeSmithson said:
It was the mad look on his face as he pushed her her out. Why did none of the other 350 guests take action?CarlottaVance said:
Have you seen his statement?_Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
May has 'suspended' him - not sacked him - so the confident predictions of 'sacked and resigned as an MP by the end of the day' may have been a tad premature.
Lets also wait to see what emerges about the 'innocent member of the public'....
And if you'd ever read anything I'd written on Boris your definition of sycophant is shall we say, curious.
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Maybe they'd had so much to drink they didn't notice what was going on.MikeSmithson said:
It was the mad look on his face as he pushed her her out. Why did none of the other 350 guests take action?CarlottaVance said:
Have you seen his statement?_Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
May has 'suspended' him - not sacked him - so the confident predictions of 'sacked and resigned as an MP by the end of the day' may have been a tad premature.
Lets also wait to see what emerges about the 'innocent member of the public'....
And if you'd ever read anything I'd written on Boris your definition of sycophant is shall we say, curious.0 -
The question is how do you call an election in September for October (5-7 weeks required) and still leave the EU on October 31st. If Boris doesn't leave on October 31st he's screwed and to call an election that late requires an extension...Sean_F said:
Everything turns on whether one of the four parties can break out of the pack, towards the end.eek said:
Given the Tories need those Brexit votes - Boris isn't going to win those votes if Nigel spends the entire campaign shouting October 31st and liar....Mysticrose said:
Surely if he goes to the country on the basis that the only way to deliver Brexit is to give him a Commons majority that will work?eek said:
So Boris is going to run in an election where the Brexit advert will be Boris confirming we leave on October 31st Deal or No Deal with us now leaving in December.GIN1138 said:
I think he'll announce it on 5th September (first day back after summer recess) and hold it on 17th October.Mysticrose said:
That's my view.GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.
This will also be enough to get the EU to push back our "departure" date to 31st December I'd have thought...
That just doesn't work for the Tories...
Well, if they really believe the country wants Brexit.
Which I don't.0 -
https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1142000684583329793MikeSmithson said:
It was the mad look on his face as he pushed her her out. Why did none of the other 350 guests take action?CarlottaVance said:
Have you seen his statement?_Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
May has 'suspended' him - not sacked him - so the confident predictions of 'sacked and resigned as an MP by the end of the day' may have been a tad premature.
Lets also wait to see what emerges about the 'innocent member of the public'....
And if you'd ever read anything I'd written on Boris your definition of sycophant is shall we say, curious.0 -
I reckon Field was the only one with ninja trainingSean_F said:
Maybe they'd had so much to drink they didn't notice what was going on.MikeSmithson said:
It was the mad look on his face as he pushed her her out. Why did none of the other 350 guests take action?CarlottaVance said:
Have you seen his statement?_Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
May has 'suspended' him - not sacked him - so the confident predictions of 'sacked and resigned as an MP by the end of the day' may have been a tad premature.
Lets also wait to see what emerges about the 'innocent member of the public'....
And if you'd ever read anything I'd written on Boris your definition of sycophant is shall we say, curious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sovzZiSVjBE&feature=youtu.be0 -
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .Sean_F said:
IMHO, the government will survive a Vote of Confidence if the Conservatives have 307 or more MPs.TheValiant said:
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.
307 plus DUP plus Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, minus one Deputy Speaker is 319
That leaves 321 who could vote against, but I expect Austin and some of CHUK would abstain.0 -
Poor result I was 1% out yesterday when I predicted 18% yesterday.0
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I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
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If they do give the Lib Dems a clear run, they shouldn't expect any favours in return.rottenborough said:0 -
Any election before the 31st October would have a very odd dynamic. A lot of Conservative MPs seem to making the assumption that either the Brexit Party would either voluntarily stand aside, or that, because Boris is promising all sorts of unicorns, TBP voters would flock back in droves to the Tories. Both assumptions look very wrong to me.eek said:Given the Tories need those Brexit votes - Boris isn't going to win those votes if Nigel spends the entire campaign shouting October 31st and liar....
As I've stated for over a week if Boris is going to call an election he needs to be it during the week beginning July 22nd otherwise it's just not possible...0 -
Why is everyone referring to her as 'the lady involved'?
She may be a woman, but she may not be a lady!
Of course Field was hardly gentlemanly either...0 -
There have been local deals.tlg86 said:
If they do give the Lib Dems a clear run, they shouldn't expect any favours in return.rottenborough said:0 -
But, a lot of them may abstain. They really don't like Corbyn, and probably quite a few of them do like being MP's. If you don't want Boris as PM, then it's PM Corbyn or an election.justin124 said:
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .Sean_F said:
IMHO, the government will survive a Vote of Confidence if the Conservatives have 307 or more MPs.TheValiant said:
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.
307 plus DUP plus Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, minus one Deputy Speaker is 319
That leaves 321 who could vote against, but I expect Austin and some of CHUK would abstain.0 -
Depends on whether Dissolution has taken place. The Liverpool Edge Hill by election still took place at the end of March 1979 - a few days after the fall of the Callaghan Government.Philip_Thompson said:If a General Election is called then the by-election is cancelled even if the writ has been moved already right?
0 -
We should not be assuming her gender.PeterMannion said:Why is everyone referring to her as 'the lady involved'?
She may be a woman, but she may not be a lady!
Of course Field was hardly gentlemanly either...0 -
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Oh.Stereotomy said:Looks like it's already come in to 4/1 sadly.
4/1 is a different matter. That is not tickling my cockles to anything like the same extent.
Let's see what the Exchange does.0 -
Field spaffed her up against the column?Nigelb said:Someone should ask Johnson if this is a waste of police resources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-487056210 -
People such as Woodcock and Lewis will have no more time for Boris than for Corbyn , and must surely know that their careers are effectively over.Sean_F said:
But, a lot of them may abstain. They really don't like Corbyn, and probably quite a few of them do like being MP's. If you don't want Boris as PM, then it's PM Corbyn or an election.justin124 said:
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .Sean_F said:
IMHO, the government will survive a Vote of Confidence if the Conservatives have 307 or more MPs.TheValiant said:
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.
307 plus DUP plus Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, minus one Deputy Speaker is 319
That leaves 321 who could vote against, but I expect Austin and some of CHUK would abstain.0 -
More correctly, we shouldn't be letting the gender of either of the participants affect our judgment of whether or not the behaviour was appropriate.Sean_F said:
We should not be assuming her gender.PeterMannion said:Why is everyone referring to her as 'the lady involved'?
She may be a woman, but she may not be a lady!
Of course Field was hardly gentlemanly either...0 -
Brecon and Radnor could be a chance for Chuka now he's joined Plaid.3
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At the last GE there was no LD in Skip & Rip in return for the Greens giving them a clear run in next-door Harrogate.rottenborough said:
There have been local deals.tlg86 said:
If they do give the Lib Dems a clear run, they shouldn't expect any favours in return.rottenborough said:0 -
Yes, and if even if the Tories and TBP did a deal then there would be many who would be put off by the obvious attempt at a stich-up.Richard_Nabavi said:
Any election before the 31st October would have a very odd dynamic. A lot of Conservative MPs seem to making the assumption that either the Brexit Party would either voluntarily stand aside, or that, because Boris is promising all sorts of unicorns, TBP voters would flock back in droves to the Tories. Both assumptions look very wrong to me.eek said:Given the Tories need those Brexit votes - Boris isn't going to win those votes if Nigel spends the entire campaign shouting October 31st and liar....
As I've stated for over a week if Boris is going to call an election he needs to be it during the week beginning July 22nd otherwise it's just not possible...0 -
Good point Sean.Sean_F said:
We should not be assuming her gender.PeterMannion said:Why is everyone referring to her as 'the lady involved'?
She may be a woman, but she may not be a lady!
Of course Field was hardly gentlemanly either...
The protester might have self declared as transgender on the steps of the Mansion House, then a woman inside the entrance and as a man as she closed in on Hammond.
We just need a judge led inquiry to establish all the facts.0 -
You have to wonder whether MPs would even vote for an election under these circumstances. I mean, Lab and Con would whip for one, but would their MPs follow? All these people must have thought they had safe seats for life. Do they really want to roll the dice on trying to hold them in this weird situation?Richard_Nabavi said:
Any election before the 31st October would have a very odd dynamic. A lot of Conservative MPs seem to making the assumption that either the Brexit Party would either voluntarily stand aside, or that, because Boris is promising all sorts of unicorns, TBP voters would flock back in droves to the Tories. Both assumptions look very wrong to me.eek said:Given the Tories need those Brexit votes - Boris isn't going to win those votes if Nigel spends the entire campaign shouting October 31st and liar....
As I've stated for over a week if Boris is going to call an election he needs to be it during the week beginning July 22nd otherwise it's just not possible...0 -
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
The Tories will beat the Brexit Party here.Stereotomy said:
Looks like it's already come in to 4/1 sadly.kinabalu said:8/1 the Cons is a great price. I'm having that.
0 -
Not so sure about that. Neckgate has managed to unite Owen Jones and Piers Morgan in condemnation - this does not happen too often.Brom said:Seems even among the lefties is my office Mark Field is getting huge support. I think the main consideration is the 'victim' is a professional protester not a member of the public.
Reckon the hand wringers and Theresa May have misjudged the public mood on this one (again).0 -
0
-
It should be noted that this is an extremely difficult seat to fight because of the geographical factors. It covers a huge area and no town is bigger the 10k population. Mobile phone coverage I am told can be pretty terrible in places some of which have unpronounceable names.
It was one of the last areas in Wales to allow Sunday pub opening and I wonder how Boris will go down.0 -
I see that Hunt has gone full hi-viz already in his campaign.0
-
Off-topic:
I just went into St Neots to do a few little errands, and did a short stroll. I overheard two noteworthy snippets of conversation:
*) A young boy being dragged along the pavement by his mother: "I don't want to go and see Baby Jesus!"
*) An obese middle-aged man waddling along a riverside path, to another man: "If your partner hits you, you get our gun and shoot her."
The first perplexed me. The second is much darker - and I can only hope I misheard!0 -
She has suggested that he goes on an anger management course.CarlottaVance said:Puncture on the OUTRAGE!!! bus:
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/11420355077251973130 -
Just to add, a new election needs 2/3 of the total membership, including vacant seats and absent MPs. So they don't have to vote against to stop the job-threatening election from happening, they just need to find some other place they urgently need to be.edmundintokyo said:You have to wonder whether MPs would even vote for an election under these circumstances. I mean, Lab and Con would whip for one, but would their MPs follow? All these people must have thought they had safe seats for life. Do they really want to roll the dice on trying to hold them in this weird situation?
0 -
Au contraire .... If Owen Jones and Piers Morgan agree then it's a sure fire winner to be on the other side of the dispute.kinabalu said:
Not so sure about that. Neckgate has managed to unite Owen Jones and Piers Morgan in condemnation - this does not happen too often.Brom said:Seems even among the lefties is my office Mark Field is getting huge support. I think the main consideration is the 'victim' is a professional protester not a member of the public.
Reckon the hand wringers and Theresa May have misjudged the public mood on this one (again).
Somewhat like a Rogerdamus but with knobs on .... and what a pair of knobs those two make !!0 -
Bit of a difference from a right-winger and a facist.isam said:0 -
I remember it so well as a Labour PPC at the time. I have never quite worked out why Callaghan - in the days immediately prior to that VNOC - did not simply troop along to the Palace when defeat in VNOC appeared likely and simply obtain a public announcement of a General Election to be held on June 7th. That would likely have defused the VNOC because Polling Day had already been announced, given Labour a further five weeks to put the Winter of Discontent behind them - and also enabled the Government to fight the election on the same day as first direct EU elections. Labour was the more eurosceptic party at the time and would probably have benefitted from that.Mysticrose said:
Remember it so well. It was live on Radio 4. At the last minute Jim appealed in his speech to successive members opposite. A lot of commentators thought he'd swung it back. But as you say, sensationally, he lost by 1 vote and the rest, as they say, is history.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
0 -
If she had a knife then he just got himself stabbed because he didn't control the individual. He chose a level of force that would only worked if the protestor was non-violent.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1142000684583329793MikeSmithson said:
It was the mad look on his face as he pushed her her out. Why did none of the other 350 guests take action?CarlottaVance said:
Have you seen his statement?_Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
May has 'suspended' him - not sacked him - so the confident predictions of 'sacked and resigned as an MP by the end of the day' may have been a tad premature.
Lets also wait to see what emerges about the 'innocent member of the public'....
And if you'd ever read anything I'd written on Boris your definition of sycophant is shall we say, curious.0 -
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
More tragically, if Airey Neave's murder had occurred 48 hours earlier it could have proved decisive.JackW said:
The government whips knew the numbers were within a few votes and tried all sorts of blandishments to get Frank Maguire (Independent Nationalist for Fermanagh and South Tyrone) to vote for the government. He abstained in person. Had Maguire voted for the government a tie would have had the Speaker vote to maintain the status quo.Mysticrose said:
Remember it so well. It was live on Radio 4. At the last minute Jim appealed in his speech to successive members opposite. A lot of commentators thought he'd swung it back. But as you say, sensationally, he lost by 1 vote and the rest, as they say, is history.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
A counter factual looms ....0 -
OT 1962 Motor Show -- forecast to be the last with Britain outside the Common Market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sItz5ZO2b9Y0 -
Result from Forest of Dean - I Ind and 2 LDs elected. A new ward but that could be classed as an Ind hold and 2 LD gains0
-
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
No, we had a referendum on changing from FPTP to AV, that was rejected, because AV is sh*t.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.1 -
'When a young lad rushed past me in pvc trousers and ripped t-shirt I instinctively reacted.'Sean_F said:
Little Britain, IIRC, where he was explaining away his encounter with a rent boy.SandyRentool said:
Was it The Fast Show that had a sketch of a Tory MP speaking to the press with his wife at his side to explain away some misdeed or other with a cock-and-bull story, and then saying that he hopes it is the end of the matter?Nigelb said:Field’s prompt statement has probably averted any chance of a assault charge:
“In the confusion many guests understandably felt threatened and when one protester rushed past me towards the top table I instinctively reacted.
"There was no security present and I was for a split second genuinely worried she might have been armed.
"As a result I grasped the intruder firmly in order to remove her from the room as swiftly as possible."
He added: "I deeply regret this episode and unreservedly apologise to the lady concerned for grabbing her but in the current climate I felt the need to act decisively to close down the threat to the safety of those present."
He has at the very least established reasonable doubt.0 -
I'm merely following the logic of those saying 52% agreed to leave the EU no a No Deal basis...Gallowgate said:
No, we had a referendum on changing from FPTP to AV, that was rejected, because AV is sh*t.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.1 -
It would be a naive assumption anyway in that Brexit Party voters would not switch en bloc to the Tories - regardless of what Farage might say. The Tories overinvested their hopes in UKIP withdrawals in 2017!Richard_Nabavi said:
Any election before the 31st October would have a very odd dynamic. A lot of Conservative MPs seem to making the assumption that either the Brexit Party would either voluntarily stand aside, or that, because Boris is promising all sorts of unicorns, TBP voters would flock back in droves to the Tories. Both assumptions look very wrong to me.eek said:Given the Tories need those Brexit votes - Boris isn't going to win those votes if Nigel spends the entire campaign shouting October 31st and liar....
As I've stated for over a week if Boris is going to call an election he needs to be it during the week beginning July 22nd otherwise it's just not possible...0 -
Sorry, my sarcasm-o-meter is clearly on the blink!eek said:
I'm merely following the logic of those saying 52% agreed to leave the EU no a No Deal basis...Gallowgate said:
No, we had a referendum on changing from FPTP to AV, that was rejected, because AV is sh*t.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
So this reflects the Boris bounce as he was locked in winner as the field work took placeCicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
That is a classic of its genre. One of the all time great spins.Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Brexit Party, zero MPs, six months old, leading in the polls, & the hot take is the LDs are only just behind them0 -
One of the few sensible things said on the matter.SandyRentool said:
She has suggested that he goes on an anger management course.CarlottaVance said:Puncture on the OUTRAGE!!! bus:
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1142035507725197313
But surely she was going to press charges, call for him to be sacked and stand down as an MP.
By the end of today?
I read it here, so it must be true....0 -
The case wasn't made to the electorate, but it doesn't make FPTPright. A vote in my area for anyone else other than a Conservative is pretty much a wasted vote under FPTP. The only citizens that have any real voting power are those who live in marginal constituencies. There needs to be at least an element of proportionality about it to redress the "no point in voting here" syndrome. This could be done by having a proportion of seats that relate to proportion of votes cast. It would mean we end up with tossers like Farage in parliament, but I believe that is a price worth paying.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
Has he took her advice about going on a gammon course?CarlottaVance said:Puncture on the OUTRAGE!!! bus:
https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/11420355077251973131 -
Well quite - we have no idea what kind of Leave people wanted.eek said:
I'm merely following the logic of those saying 52% agreed to leave the EU no a No Deal basis...Gallowgate said:
No, we had a referendum on changing from FPTP to AV, that was rejected, because AV is sh*t.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
Good god man, much more importantly we should not be assuming her class, or ascribing to her a status to which she is not entitled.Sean_F said:
We should not be assuming her gender.PeterMannion said:Why is everyone referring to her as 'the lady involved'?
She may be a woman, but she may not be a lady!
Of course Field was hardly gentlemanly either...
She actually sounded pretty sensible and down to earth on R4, much more so than that whiny old fart Bob Stewart who preceded (or followed) her.0 -
I'm sure HYUFD will be along with a poll shortly that shows all the Brexit voters switching en masse to the Conservativesnichomar said:
So this reflects the Boris bounce as he was locked in winner as the field work took placeCicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
Well 1 of those 52% wanted a soft deal - I just want to be as far away from the Euro as possible for when it all blows up... I definitely don't want a No Deal FTA created by people who don't understand the first thing about WTO tariffs...not_on_fire said:
Well quite - we have no idea what kind of Leave people wanted.eek said:
I'm merely following the logic of those saying 52% agreed to leave the EU no a No Deal basis...Gallowgate said:
No, we had a referendum on changing from FPTP to AV, that was rejected, because AV is sh*t.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
It would be rather sweet if they went on an anger management course together. He could learn techniques for controlling himself better in situations which look threatening, and she could learn to reflect on the idiocy of getting angry against politicians who are working to find solutions to the issue she's rightly identified as crucially important.0
-
Equally it would mean other MPs would learn how to deal with tossers like Farage so might handle their more insane but vocal constituents a bit better...Nigel_Foremain said:
The case wasn't made to the electorate, but it doesn't make FPTPright. A vote in my area for anyone else other than a Conservative is pretty much a wasted vote under FPTP. The only citizens that have any real voting power are those who live in marginal constituencies. There needs to be at least an element of proportionality about it to redress the "no point in voting here" syndrome. This could be done by having a proportion of seats that relate to proportion of votes cast. It would mean we end up with tossers like Farage in parliament, but I believe that is a price worth paying.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
4 members of the 52% in chez BJO.eek said:
Well 1 of those 52% wanted a soft deal - I just want to be as far away from the Euro as possible for when it all blows up... I definitely don't want a No Deal FTA created by people who don't understand the first thing about WTO tariffs...not_on_fire said:
Well quite - we have no idea what kind of Leave people wanted.eek said:
I'm merely following the logic of those saying 52% agreed to leave the EU no a No Deal basis...Gallowgate said:
No, we had a referendum on changing from FPTP to AV, that was rejected, because AV is sh*t.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
None of us want WTO0 -
I doubt that will be true in the next election unless you are really unlucky....Nigel_Foremain said:
A vote in my area for anyone else other than a Conservative is pretty much a wasted vote under FPTP.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
On today's Yougov poll the LDs would gain Brecon and Radnor so they should be favourites.
However I would not rule the Tories out if Boris leader by then and winning back Brexit Party voters to the Tories and if the Tories pick a good candidate e.g. a local farmer0 -
If the Tories have already decided on an Autumn election, there has to be the possibility that no writ will be moved. Any attempt by the LibDems to do so could be voted down.0
-
Theresa May is still leader and Hunt could still win but of course even a 3% Brexit Party lead over the Tories and the Tories tied with Labour is better than the Tories were doing a month agonot_on_fire said:
I'm sure HYUFD will be along with a poll shortly that shows all the Brexit voters switching en masse to the Conservativesnichomar said:
So this reflects the Boris bounce as he was locked in winner as the field work took placeCicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
Must admit, my heart sank when I checked Morgan's twitter and found him on the same side as me on a 'culture war' issue. Cannot remember the last time that happened. Perhaps because there isn't a last time.JackW said:Au contraire .... If Owen Jones and Piers Morgan agree then it's a sure fire winner to be on the other side of the dispute.
Owen, OTOH, can be OTT but I like most of his stuff. Great pundit and journalist. Will be a National Treasure in 30 years. (Unless he's very careful).
Here's his take on Neckgate -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/21/mark-field-conservative-grabs-climate-protester-neck-far-right-cheer0 -
So the protestor (from Wigan) lives off-grid in rural Waves with rabbits, kitting articles from rabbit wool with her husband. How lucky Wales is that England is willing to export such people to help the Welsh economy.
And here is a discharged vet from Essex assisting the Welsh economy with off-grid chickens in a rural slum
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48621886
Here are some people from Islington (Alpay Torgut) helping the Welsh economy
https://www.westerntelegraph.co.uk/news/17556445.cardigans-naturewise-community-forest-garden-to-take-root/
Ever wondered why so many English people are living off-grid in rural Wales, knitting rabbit wool or hatching chickens ?
Why are these developments not occurring in ... err ... England?
Some fuckwit called Jane Davidson, a former Labour Minister in the Welsh Assembly government for Sustainable Development, introduced legislation that implemented the document "One World, One Planet: Sustainable Development"
The One Planet legislation was supplemented with Technical Advice Note (TAN) 6 and the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.
Amongst other things, One Word Developments do not go through the normal planning procedure, even in National Parks.
So, if you want to move to Pembrokeshire and live off-grid in a rural slum, harvesting adder eggs or making clothing from spider web silk, then One World Developments are ideal.
And you can patronise the Welsh at the same time.1 -
Yes, the remainder of the diners don't look in fear of their safety. Mildly peeved perhaps...CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/Barristerblog/status/1142000684583329793MikeSmithson said:
It was the mad look on his face as he pushed her her out. Why did none of the other 350 guests take action?CarlottaVance said:
Have you seen his statement?_Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
May has 'suspended' him - not sacked him - so the confident predictions of 'sacked and resigned as an MP by the end of the day' may have been a tad premature.
Lets also wait to see what emerges about the 'innocent member of the public'....
And if you'd ever read anything I'd written on Boris your definition of sycophant is shall we say, curious.
August 1st for the election so as to not clash with the Royal Welsh Show conclusion on 25th July?0 -
Having watched it he looks a bit of a plonker, angrily manhandling a slightly built woman in a dress, but she shouldn't have been a able to get there in the first place, so she has no moral right to complaint IMOkinabalu said:
Not so sure about that. Neckgate has managed to unite Owen Jones and Piers Morgan in condemnation - this does not happen too often.Brom said:Seems even among the lefties is my office Mark Field is getting huge support. I think the main consideration is the 'victim' is a professional protester not a member of the public.
Reckon the hand wringers and Theresa May have misjudged the public mood on this one (again).0 -
And indeed she is not pressing charges.Nigel_Foremain said:Having watched it he looks a bit of a plonker, angrily manhandling a slightly built woman in a dress, but she shouldn't have been a able to get there in the first place, so she has no moral right to complaint IMO
0 -
Peaceful protest is not 'getting angry', it is shaping the discourse.Richard_Nabavi said:It would be rather sweet if they went on an anger management course together. He could learn techniques for controlling himself better in situations which look threatening, and she could learn to reflect on the idiocy of getting angry against politicians who are working to find solutions to the issue she's rightly identified as crucially important.
0 -
So as someone at the more sensible end of the 52%, what is your feeling about it all now? Was it worth it?eek said:
Well 1 of those 52% wanted a soft deal - I just want to be as far away from the Euro as possible for when it all blows up... I definitely don't want a No Deal FTA created by people who don't understand the first thing about WTO tariffs...not_on_fire said:
Well quite - we have no idea what kind of Leave people wanted.eek said:
I'm merely following the logic of those saying 52% agreed to leave the EU no a No Deal basis...Gallowgate said:
No, we had a referendum on changing from FPTP to AV, that was rejected, because AV is sh*t.eek said:
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.Cicero said:
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.not_on_fire said:
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.0 -
God, 34/22/20 would be landslide!!!CarlottaVance said:0 -
yebbut they haven't opened the comments on the piece as he would get slaughtered.kinabalu said:
Must admit, my heart sank when I checked Morgan's twitter and found him on the same side as me on a 'culture war' issue. Cannot remember the last time that happened. Perhaps because there isn't a last time.JackW said:Au contraire .... If Owen Jones and Piers Morgan agree then it's a sure fire winner to be on the other side of the dispute.
Owen, OTOH, can be OTT but I like most of his stuff. Great pundit and journalist. Will be a National Treasure in 30 years. (Unless he's very careful).
Here's his take on Neckgate -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/21/mark-field-conservative-grabs-climate-protester-neck-far-right-cheer0 -
"I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection."SandyRentool said:
Peaceful protest is not 'getting angry', it is shaping the discourse.Richard_Nabavi said:It would be rather sweet if they went on an anger management course together. He could learn techniques for controlling himself better in situations which look threatening, and she could learn to reflect on the idiocy of getting angry against politicians who are working to find solutions to the issue she's rightly identified as crucially important.
1 -
1% would vote for Labour if Hunt rather than Boris was PM?????TheWhiteRabbit said:
God, 34/22/20 would be landslide!!!CarlottaVance said:0 -
She seems fairly meek, didn't even fight back or try to escape. Anger management is really about stopping people acting out their anger as aggression.Richard_Nabavi said:It would be rather sweet if they went on an anger management course together. He could learn techniques for controlling himself better in situations which look threatening, and she could learn to reflect on the idiocy of getting angry against politicians who are working to find solutions to the issue she's rightly identified as crucially important.
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Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42Cicero said:I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23
LD 21
Lab 20
Con 20
Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=20&LIB=21&Brexit=23&Green=9&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
Interesting to have seen the reaction of Chinese security if she tried to pull a similar stunt there. At least though it would have been directed at the right people.0
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These are fantasy figures - no way the Greens will poll 9% in a GE . They would do well to exceed 2%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
God, 34/22/20 would be landslide!!!CarlottaVance said:0 -
The media and Westminster bubble react to Twatter not public opinion.Brom said:
Seems even among the lefties is my office Mark Field is getting huge support. I think the main consideration is the 'victim' is a professional protester not a member of the public._Anazina_ said:Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
Reckon the hand wringers and Theresa May have misjudged the public mood on this one (again).
Their mutual reactions form a self-perpetuating bedwetting loop as they try and raise and kill stories off the back of it.
Normal people look on in bafflement and amusement.0
