This suggests Brexit would be delivered without negative consequence, which is, of course, the naïve belief of the average Brexit supporter. Possible, but very unlikely.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
If Boris wants a quick GE, can he wait till after the summer recess - means calling it in early September for a mid October GE? That is surely going to look odd, so close to the Brexit deadline.
So might he call it immediately on taking office - on say 24 July for GE in first week in September? If necessary, summer recess could be delayed for a day or two in order to hold the vote and do any other necessary formalities.
The latter seems much more credible re Brexit. Two other advantages:
- No time for any cock-ups / other problems / other narratives to throw him off course
- Labour likely to still be sitting on fence re Brexit - with no time for any Conference to change party policy
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Interesting to have seen the reaction of Chinese security if she tried to pull a similar stunt there. At least though it would have been directed at the right people.
[begin hyperbole]
"Mark Field would have delighted in gunning down people in Tiananmen Square!"
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June. This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Could FPTP survive Labour or the Conservatives forming a governemnt on such a result?
Well good point... I guess not, but how that change comes is a very open question.
Why should FPTP change - we had a referendum about changing it and that was overwhelmingly rejected.
No, we had a referendum on changing from FPTP to AV, that was rejected, because AV is sh*t.
AV is not much of an improvement on FPTP, I agree, but it ought to have passed, because support for AV was in the previous Labour Party manifesto. The problem is that the Labour Party have promised absolutely everything in their manifesto in recent years, and then ignore it totally after the election. You most certainly cannot trust Labour with anything.
This suggests Brexit would be delivered without negative consequence, which is, of course, the naïve belief of the average Brexit supporter. Possible, but very unlikely.
Another naive belief is that Brexit supporters will blame the government for negative consequences.
Funny how people routinely branded as thick xenophobes are expected to become wise after Brexit....
It would be rather sweet if they went on an anger management course together. He could learn techniques for controlling himself better in situations which look threatening, and she could learn to reflect on the idiocy of getting angry against politicians who are working to find solutions to the issue she's rightly identified as crucially important.
Peaceful protest is not 'getting angry', it is shaping the discourse.
Sorry, I’ve had enough of this. Peaceful protest doesn’t mean a right to free-reign anarchic protest whenever it takes people’s fancy.
If someone broke into your private home or club and interrupted you to rant and rave at will in front of your friends and family, with no right for you to intervene or eject them on the grounds of “peaceful protest”, would that be acceptable?
Peaceful protest means the right for people to express their opposition to policy without being shot, suppressed or intimidated. There have always been rules on it and notifications required, which is why the police regulate marches and approval is needed to fly the Trump baby.
It doesn’t mean you can do whatever you like whenever you like through trespass on private property, with everyone else having to sit there and suffer in silence until you’re done, on the grounds of free expression.
Sometimes people are out of line actively committing a civil or criminal offence and if they won’t leave when asked, regardless of their motive, can be quite rightly made to leave. That doesn’t cut across the right to peaceful protest and is not in conflict with it.
"I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection."
No offence but that is a cut above your normal stuff!
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
That is your best attempt at positive spin. My view is that those polls demonstrate that even if Brexit is benign (very unlikely), the whole anti-EU direction that the Party has taken has fucked it, and probably the country, for years to come. I will keep saying I told you so, but it will give me no pleasure.
This suggests Brexit would be delivered without negative consequence, which is, of course, the naïve belief of the average Brexit supporter. Possible, but very unlikely.
I'm not sure the effect of a Deal would be such. Indeed I think there would be a small bounce associated with delayed investment, while we entered the transition period.
Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
Seems even among the lefties is my office Mark Field is getting huge support. I think the main consideration is the 'victim' is a professional protester not a member of the public.
Reckon the hand wringers and Theresa May have misjudged the public mood on this one (again).
The media and Westminster bubble react to Twatter not public opinion.
Their mutual reactions form a self-perpetuating bedwetting loop as they try and raise and kill stories off the back of it.
Normal people look on in bafflement and amusement.
I said this last night - two guesses how The Poster Formally Known as Bobajob and Ishmael responded....
This suggests Brexit would be delivered without negative consequence, which is, of course, the naïve belief of the average Brexit supporter. Possible, but very unlikely.
Another naive belief is that Brexit supporters will blame the government for negative consequences.
Funny how people routinely branded as thick xenophobes are expected to become wise after Brexit....
Good point. They will continue to be thick xenophobes. They will probably blame those dastardly remainers.
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Interesting - 80 LD seats only for coming 2nd! Labour get about 100 more with fewer votes, and BXP nearly 200 more seats with only an extra 2% Great system
Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.
Seems even among the lefties is my office Mark Field is getting huge support. I think the main consideration is the 'victim' is a professional protester not a member of the public.
Reckon the hand wringers and Theresa May have misjudged the public mood on this one (again).
The media and Westminster bubble react to Twatter not public opinion.
Their mutual reactions form a self-perpetuating bedwetting loop as they try and raise and kill stories off the back of it.
Normal people look on in bafflement and amusement.
I said this last night - two guesses how The Poster Formally Known as Bobajob and Ishmael responded....
I wonder if they are feeling as foolish as they look?
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Interesting - 80 LD seats only for coming 2nd! Labour get about 100 more with fewer votes, and BXP nearly 200 more seats with only an extra 2% Great system
Electoral Calculus is not very good, is it?
It's not great at stupid results, for obvious reasons
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
On B,) No one - firstly which party is going to accept anything that isn't Revoke or a second referendum? And secondly did you see what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015?
Dr. Foxy, just because the others did nothing doesn't mean they're right. I remember a chap fighting for his life (and winning) against a knife-toting lunatic, who was livid with the many onlookers, half of whom had time to film it on their smartphones but none of whom deigned to intervene.
Also, psychologists have found that people are less likely to intervene (including in clear-cut cases where intervention is necessary, such as trying to help someone who's on fire) the more numerous they are.
This suggests Brexit would be delivered without negative consequence, which is, of course, the naïve belief of the average Brexit supporter. Possible, but very unlikely.
I'm not sure the effect of a Deal would be such. Indeed I think there would be a small bounce associated with delayed investment, while we entered the transition period.
I agree, if we can exit with a deal. Most of the negative effects of Brexit with a deal have probably already been absorbed. Without a deal is another matter. Question is, is there any likelihood Bozo can get a deal through? Zero I would have thought.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
Nobody beyond the DUP will want to support the Tories - particularly when led by Boris.
yebbut they haven't opened the comments on the piece as he would get slaughtered.
By you, you mean? OK, but I bet you would be outnumbered.
What's happened to your wokeness? - didn't last very long.
Not by me and if I did I'm sure I would be outnumbered, but as with many of his articles, there are usually plenty of people making sensible points which contradict him and render his arguments worthless.
Such as this line of his: "No one appears threatened by a young Greenpeace activist in a red dress". Echoed by many elsewhere including on here. I will not make a comment on Field's actions but this line is bollocks of the purest order. No one is a threat until they are a threat.
Plenty of people have watched the video 20x and have determined that she wasn't a threat. Absolute bollocks.
Here's some specialist security training for those types:
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
Nobody beyond the DUP will want to support the Tories - particularly when led by Boris.
I do wonder if the DUP deal is still valid with a new Tory Leader...
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
That is your best attempt at positive spin. My view is that those polls demonstrate that even if Brexit is benign (very unlikely), the whole anti-EU direction that the Party has taken has fucked it, and probably the country, for years to come. I will keep saying I told you so, but it will give me no pleasure.
No, they show that regardless of the Brexit outcome either the Tories or the Brexit Party will be largest party, with Labour even more screwed than the Tories with a Tory majority if Brexit delivered by October and Labour falling behind both the Brexit Party and LDs if there is further extension
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
On B,) No one - firstly which party is going to accept anything that isn't Revoke or a second referendum? And secondly did you see what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015?
In 2015 the Lib Dems were knifed in the back by their Conservative partners. They were just practising their dirty tricks, which have recently done for Gove and Stewart, who are members of the Conservative Cabinet. The Conservatives are, quite simply, untrustworthy.
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
Nobody beyond the DUP will want to support the Tories - particularly when led by Boris.
On today's Yougov it will be the Tories supporting Farage or Corbyn as the Brexit Party will be largest party but the Tories with 60 MPs holding the balance of power
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
That is your best attempt at positive spin. My view is that those polls demonstrate that even if Brexit is benign (very unlikely), the whole anti-EU direction that the Party has taken has fucked it, and probably the country, for years to come. I will keep saying I told you so, but it will give me no pleasure.
No, they show that regardless of the Brexit outcome either the Tories or the Brexit Party will be largest party, with Labour even more screwed than the Tories with a Tory majority if Brexit delivered by October and Labour falling behind both the Brexit Party and LDs if there is further extension
As I say, it simplistically assumes Brexit will be benign. Very unlikely with Johnson as PM. As one other poster put it, it is hardly landslide territory for your hero.
The BXP are hardly likely to resist fighting it and will split the Tory vote which ever way it goes. Additionally, if Labour wake up and remove Mr. Thicky and replace with a normal human being the Tories won't stand a chance. It is only Corbyn that are keeping them in contention.
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
On B,) No one - firstly which party is going to accept anything that isn't Revoke or a second referendum? And secondly did you see what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015?
In 2015 the Lib Dems were knifed in the back by their Conservative partners. They were just practising their dirty tricks, which have recently done for Gove and Stewart, who are members of the Conservative Cabinet. The Conservatives are, quite simply, untrustworthy.
Knifed in the back? There was no intention to keep the coalition going indefinitely.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
YouGov poll shows Con at least have the potential to significantly increase their vote share if Brexit happens - but of course if disaster strikes well then they might lose it again.
But what about Lab? YouGov suggests that if Brexit happens Lab share goes up approx 3% at the expense of the LDs - presumably as those 3% think there is no longer any point in voting LD to stop Brexit - as it's then no longer an issue. But how does Lab significantly increase its support?
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
Nobody beyond the DUP will want to support the Tories - particularly when led by Boris.
On today's Yougov it will be the Tories supporting Farage or Corbyn as the Brexit Party will be largest party but the Tories with 60 MPs holding the balance of power
If the Tories have 60 MPs they won't be in a position to support anyone - the party will be dead due to infighting within a week...
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
On B,) No one - firstly which party is going to accept anything that isn't Revoke or a second referendum? And secondly did you see what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015?
In 2015 the Lib Dems were knifed in the back by their Conservative partners. They were just practising their dirty tricks, which have recently done for Gove and Stewart, who are members of the Conservative Cabinet. The Conservatives are, quite simply, untrustworthy.
Hang on while I get a tissue, so I can have a jolly good cry on your behalf..
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
You put a lot of faith in your hero. It is quite quaint. What is the evidence for this? His record as Foreign Secretary? Mayor of London? Everything suggests he probably could organise a piss-up in a brewery, and a very entertaining one it would be (with lots of wife swapping no doubt). But a serious politician and statesman he is not and will never be. The only good thing about his election will be the fact that he will have to own the shitstorm that he created
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Of course, the chaotic situation (in the mathematical tense), coupled with the lack of Brexit Party ground game historically and local factors plus tactical voting would probably result in four parties between 100 and 200 seats. Best guess would be Labour on high hundreds (170-195), Brexit Party mid-to-high hundreds (155-180), Lib Dems low-to-mid hundreds (110-135), Cons low hundreds (100-125). Or thereabouts.
The justice system is one of those unseen, not much loved but utterly essential parts of a civilised society. It is a disgrace that we are neglecting it and, worse, that there is little chance that any available government will do anything about this.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
You put a lot of faith in your hero. It is quite quaint. What is the evidence for this? His record as Foreign Secretary? Mayor of London? Everything suggests he probably could organise a piss-up in a brewery, and a very entertaining one it would be (with lots of wife swapping no doubt). But a serious politician and statesman he is not and will never be. The only good thing about his election will be the fact that he will have to own the shitstorm that he created
Parliamentary tactical genius Mr Shut-up-and-go-away will sort it out for him.
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Of course, the chaotic situation (in the mathematical tense), coupled with the lack of Brexit Party ground game historically and local factors plus tactical voting would probably result in four parties between 100 and 200 seats. Best guess would be Labour on high hundreds (170-195), Brexit Party mid-to-high hundreds (155-180), Lib Dems low-to-mid hundreds (110-135), Cons low hundreds (100-125). Or thereabouts.
Can't see it myself. FPTP is unlikely to give a result as (vaguely) proportional as that.
Suspect Con and TBP will be fishing in the same pool to a larger extent than LAB and LDs.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
That is your best attempt at positive spin. My view is that those polls demonstrate that even if Brexit is benign (very unlikely), the whole anti-EU direction that the Party has taken has fucked it, and probably the country, for years to come. I will keep saying I told you so, but it will give me no pleasure.
No, they show that regardless of the Brexit outcome either the Tories or the Brexit Party will be largest party, with Labour even more screwed than the Tories with a Tory majority if Brexit delivered by October and Labour falling behind both the Brexit Party and LDs if there is further extension
As I say, it simplistically assumes Brexit will be benign. Very unlikely with Johnson as PM. As one other poster put it, it is hardly landslide territory for your hero.
The BXP are hardly likely to resist fighting it and will split the Tory vote which ever way it goes. Additionally, if Labour wake up and remove Mr. Thicky and replace with a normal human being the Tories won't stand a chance. It is only Corbyn that are keeping them in contention.
On that poll actually it would a Tory landslide under FPTP with a 12% Tory lead over Labour under Boris if Brexit delivered with the Brexit Party vote collapsing to the Tories.
Labour is of course now in the grip of Corbynism from the NEC down
YouGov poll shows Con at least have the potential to significantly increase their vote share if Brexit happens - but of course if disaster strikes well then they might lose it again.
But what about Lab? YouGov suggests that if Brexit happens Lab share goes up approx 3% at the expense of the LDs - presumably as those 3% think there is no longer any point in voting LD to stop Brexit - as it's then no longer an issue. But how does Lab significantly increase its support?
At a GE I would expect the Green vote share to fall back sharply to Labour's advantage. Unlikely that Labour would fail to poll 35% at a GE IMHO - LibDems circa 12%
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
Nobody beyond the DUP will want to support the Tories - particularly when led by Boris.
On today's Yougov it will be the Tories supporting Farage or Corbyn as the Brexit Party will be largest party but the Tories with 60 MPs holding the balance of power
If the Tories have 60 MPs they won't be in a position to support anyone - the party will be dead due to infighting within a week...
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
So, 'May's Deal minus' then - i.e. with a customs border in the Irish Sea?
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
So, 'May's Deal minus' then - i.e. with a customs border in the Irish Sea?
Yes, with the temporary Customs Union for GB removed.
Boris is not bothered by the NI backstop and with a majority can ignore the DUP and accept it until a technical solution is found to the Irish border, even with a confirmatory referendum in NI if need be
Cant see it being held July 25 as that is Royal Welsh Show week in the constituency so will be too busy - Government have up to 3 months to serve the writ
The justice system is one of those unseen, not much loved but utterly essential parts of a civilised society. It is a disgrace that we are neglecting it and, worse, that there is little chance that any available government will do anything about this.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
You put a lot of faith in your hero. It is quite quaint. What is the evidence for this? His record as Foreign Secretary? Mayor of London? Everything suggests he probably could organise a piss-up in a brewery, and a very entertaining one it would be (with lots of wife swapping no doubt). But a serious politician and statesman he is not and will never be. The only good thing about his election will be the fact that he will have to own the shitstorm that he created
Parliamentary tactical genius Mr Shut-up-and-go-away will sort it out for him.
1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
Further Tory defections in the wake of Boris being elected could effectively provide the coup de grace to this Government. I also doubt that Lady Hermon would be inclined to support a Boris-led Government in a VNOC.
Potential defectors will probably wait to see what Johnson actually looks like doing on October 31st. No Deal and I think some will jump.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
What do you mean by a FTA?
Free Trade Agreement
And what exactly is one of those when it's at home - hint I know I want to see what your definition is in as much detail as you care to give me...
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
What do you mean by a FTA?
Free Trade Agreement
And what exactly is one of those when it's at home - hint I know I want to see what your definition is in as much detail as you care to give me...
Probably similar to what is already in place, just without all the political crap
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Of course, the chaotic situation (in the mathematical tense), coupled with the lack of Brexit Party ground game historically and local factors plus tactical voting would probably result in four parties between 100 and 200 seats. Best guess would be Labour on high hundreds (170-195), Brexit Party mid-to-high hundreds (155-180), Lib Dems low-to-mid hundreds (110-135), Cons low hundreds (100-125). Or thereabouts.
Can't see it myself. FPTP is unlikely to give a result as (vaguely) proportional as that.
Suspect Con and TBP will be fishing in the same pool to a larger extent than LAB and LDs.
Could be, but at this point we're looking at Labour right down to their most solid redoubts. Otherwise they'd have fallen yet further. Brexit Party should be further up on "normal" FPTP, but Peterborough-like ground-game failure drops them down a decent chunk, mainly to the benefit of the Tories, who would otherwise, on these sorts of figures and a swing from now, be on mid-double-figures. Lib Dems benefiting from a lot of coming-through-the-middle in those BXP/Con fights and places where Labour have vapourised.
To be fair, on the proportionality front, the party who came third in votes would be first or second on seats, the one second in votes would be third or fourth in seats, the one who came first in votes would be second or third in seats, and the one fourth in votes would be third or fourth in seats.
I see all the toffs were out supporting the Tory lout. I bet he would not have been so handy if it had been a guy. Nasty piece of work , if a pleb did that in the street they would be in the slammer pronto.
1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
Further Tory defections in the wake of Boris being elected could effectively provide the coup de grace to this Government. I also doubt that Lady Hermon would be inclined to support a Boris-led Government in a VNOC.
Potential defectors will probably wait to see what Johnson actually looks like doing on October 31st. No Deal and I think some will jump.
But it is not purely a question of Brexit for several Tory MPs. Some see him - in a similar way to Max Hastings - as so fundamentally amoral and disreputable that they really have no wish to be associated with him. Almost a matter of honour and self respect.
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
At present, I'd suggest the government has a majority of 10 - 20 on a confidence motion.
From the detailed poll tables, we can conclude that Continuity Change were supported by one person out of the 1641 they polled. That person was a Londoner, male, aged between 25-34, voted Remain in 2016 and Conservative in 2017, social group ABC1.
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
At present, I'd suggest the government has a majority of 10 - 20 on a confidence motion.
Well four Tory MPs have crossed the floor since the January vote and Labour has two new MPs. Now we have a vacancy in a Tory held seat. Those changes alone could knock 11 off the Government's 19 majority in January. Lady Hermon much less likely to support Boris than May. Woodcock and Lewis probably less likely to abstain too.
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
I must confess I share your bewilderment. Why Barclays directors were in the dock and RBS directors were not really defies understanding.
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
I must confess I share your bewilderment. Why Barclays directors were in the dock and RBS directors were not really defies understanding.
All of these feckers should have been up against the metaphorical wall.
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
I must confess I share your bewilderment. Why Barclays directors were in the dock and RBS directors were not really defies understanding.
An opinion which conservatively must unite a good two thirds of the electorate.
It would be rather sweet if they went on an anger management course together. He could learn techniques for controlling himself better in situations which look threatening, and she could learn to reflect on the idiocy of getting angry against politicians who are working to find solutions to the issue she's rightly identified as crucially important.
Peaceful protest is not 'getting angry', it is shaping the discourse.
Breaking into a private event and disrupting proceedings is not peaceful in my view
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
At present, I'd suggest the government has a majority of 10 - 20 on a confidence motion.
At present, I'd agree. But if Boris wobbles back towards No Deal after his wobble away on Tuesday, that could reduce quite sharply from the point of his victory. The ChUKs et al (and probably Grieves etc) who might have hung on for a few more months' salary will happily go down in flames if they see a chance of Thwarting The Will Of The People (TM)
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
At present, I'd suggest the government has a majority of 10 - 20 on a confidence motion.
I respect you Sean but that figure is pure guesswork: just plucked out of thin air.
The actual arithmetic is that currently the Conservatives hold a working majority of 3 (or 4).
We simply don't know which way the various floaters on either side might break but I would say one thing fairly confidently. Boris isn't going to be a happy selection for lots of Tory MP's and he's likewise a great unity candidate for Labour.
It would be rather sweet if they went on an anger management course together. He could learn techniques for controlling himself better in situations which look threatening, and she could learn to reflect on the idiocy of getting angry against politicians who are working to find solutions to the issue she's rightly identified as crucially important.
Peaceful protest is not 'getting angry', it is shaping the discourse.
Breaking into a private event and disrupting proceedings is not peaceful in my view
Standing outside and protesting is fine
They didn't break in. They walked in. And it wasn't really all that private either. It's a public building, with public servants, talking about public policy.
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Interesting - 80 LD seats only for coming 2nd! Labour get about 100 more with fewer votes, and BXP nearly 200 more seats with only an extra 2%
Great system
In two senses it would be an awesome result - it leaves Brexit as difficult as it is now, and it makes socialism impossible. Crap for my side otherwise, but frankly they should have made Boris leader in 2016, they should have passed the boundary changes before calling another GE, May should have produced a populist manifesto in 2017, etc, etc, etc.
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
I must confess I share your bewilderment. Why Barclays directors were in the dock and RBS directors were not really defies understanding.
An opinion which conservatively must unite a good two thirds of the electorate.
It should but sadly I think Sandy will reflect more not discerning between any of them.
Barclays made some mistakes but sorted themselves out without taxpayers funds.
On a different note, there's another problem for Boris with the timing of this election.
Every new PM enjoys a honeymoon. Even in normal circumstances Boris would enjoy less of one than most. To add to this, almost as soon as he's in post everyone is off on holiday, taking all momentum out of it. Meanwhile, the clock will be ticking down again to the deadline.
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Of course, the chaotic situation (in the mathematical tense), coupled with the lack of Brexit Party ground game historically and local factors plus tactical voting would probably result in four parties between 100 and 200 seats. Best guess would be Labour on high hundreds (170-195), Brexit Party mid-to-high hundreds (155-180), Lib Dems low-to-mid hundreds (110-135), Cons low hundreds (100-125). Or thereabouts.
Can't see it myself. FPTP is unlikely to give a result as (vaguely) proportional as that.
Suspect Con and TBP will be fishing in the same pool to a larger extent than LAB and LDs.
Could be, but at this point we're looking at Labour right down to their most solid redoubts. Otherwise they'd have fallen yet further. Brexit Party should be further up on "normal" FPTP, but Peterborough-like ground-game failure drops them down a decent chunk, mainly to the benefit of the Tories, who would otherwise, on these sorts of figures and a swing from now, be on mid-double-figures. Lib Dems benefiting from a lot of coming-through-the-middle in those BXP/Con fights and places where Labour have vapourised.
To be fair, on the proportionality front, the party who came third in votes would be first or second on seats, the one second in votes would be third or fourth in seats, the one who came first in votes would be second or third in seats, and the one fourth in votes would be third or fourth in seats.
Yes but four parties with between 100-200 seats?
Not at all likely imho - but really, who tf knows?
Not by me and if I did I'm sure I would be outnumbered, but as with many of his articles, there are usually plenty of people making sensible points which contradict him and render his arguments worthless.
Such as this line of his: "No one appears threatened by a young Greenpeace activist in a red dress". Echoed by many elsewhere including on here. I will not make a comment on Field's actions but this line is bollocks of the purest order. No one is a threat until they are a threat.
Plenty of people have watched the video 20x and have determined that she wasn't a threat. Absolute bollocks.
Here's some specialist security training for those types:
Very good. One forgets that Izzard was once a major league comic.
Jones, though, like I say, can be OTT - maybe is a bit here - and he has become too slavishly Corbynite for my taste, but he is intelligent and articulate (in print and in person) and he is effective. Just as importantly, a good heart. Written a couple of excellent books too.
I think people on the right are unable to appreciate his qualities precisely BECAUSE he is effective. This annoys them - as does his slightly 'cocky' manner and aura of yoof.
Fair enough, it's hard to be objective. I can do it but I realize that makes me a bit odd.
For example, I cannot abide Rod Liddle but I recognise the skill of his writing and the presence of comic talent there. He can get me chuckling whilst at the same time utterly despising the message he is putting across.
They didn't break in. They walked in. And it wasn't really all that private either. It's a public building, with public servants, talking about public policy.
So is No 10 Downing Street. I think you'd be escorted out pretty sharpish and without much fuss about whether you were gripped lightly by the neck if you found a way to walk in there.
Not by me and if I did I'm sure I would be outnumbered, but as with many of his articles, there are usually plenty of people making sensible points which contradict him and render his arguments worthless.
Such as this line of his: "No one appears threatened by a young Greenpeace activist in a red dress". Echoed by many elsewhere including on here. I will not make a comment on Field's actions but this line is bollocks of the purest order. No one is a threat until they are a threat.
Plenty of people have watched the video 20x and have determined that she wasn't a threat. Absolute bollocks.
Here's some specialist security training for those types:
Very good. One forgets that Izzard was once a major league comic.
Jones, though, like I say, can be OTT - maybe is a bit here - and he has become too slavishly Corbynite for my taste, but he is intelligent and articulate (in print and in person) and he is effective. Just as importantly, a good heart. Written a couple of excellent books too.
I think people on the right are unable to appreciate his qualities precisely BECAUSE he is effective. This annoys them - as does his slightly 'cocky' manner and aura of yoof.
Fair enough, it's hard to be objective. I can do it but I realize that makes me a bit odd.
For example, I cannot abide Rod Liddle but I recognise the skill of his writing and the presence of comic talent there. He can get me chuckling whilst at the same time utterly despising the message he is putting across.
Yes I appreciate the rhetoric (cf La Toynbee); he knows how to rouse the rabble and present a position. Trouble is that it is very often based on a false premise and hence relies on preaching to the converted. If he had thought about the Field issue he might have written a more balanced article. But to dismiss any possibility of red dress woman being a threat is facile, if we're talking threat assessment for example and hence Jones almost forfeits the indulgence you afford him.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
What do you mean by a FTA?
Free Trade Agreement
And what exactly is one of those when it's at home - hint I know I want to see what your definition is in as much detail as you care to give me...
You do assume that contributors here are willing to indulge you. Why don't you first tell us in copious detail what your definition of a FTA is.
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
I must confess I share your bewilderment. Why Barclays directors were in the dock and RBS directors were not really defies understanding.
There were people at RBS and at some other entities who should have had action taken against them though not perhaps for what you might think. That they weren't is down to the utter feebleness of the authorities at the time who were very clearly told what was going on and why it was wrong.
They didn't break in. They walked in. And it wasn't really all that private either. It's a public building, with public servants, talking about public policy.
So is No 10 Downing Street. I think you'd be escorted out pretty sharpish and without much fuss about whether you were gripped lightly by the neck if you found a way to walk in there.
The fact no10 is now a fortress is a bad thing. We would be better off if there were serious discussions about climate change behind that black door.
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
Enjoy the show. If PB readers can't enjoy a lengthy period, with no end in sight, of no-one having a clue what is going to happen or how to sort it out and every possibility (and lots of impossibilities) on the table, then what could they enjoy? I prefer this to living in North Korea, China, or Corbyn's UK.
They didn't break in. They walked in. And it wasn't really all that private either. It's a public building, with public servants, talking about public policy.
So is No 10 Downing Street. I think you'd be escorted out pretty sharpish and without much fuss about whether you were gripped lightly by the neck if you found a way to walk in there.
The fact no10 is now a fortress is a bad thing. We would be better off if there were serious discussions about climate change behind that black door.
Hasn’t the U.K. already done more than most on this front?
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
They didn't break in. They walked in. And it wasn't really all that private either. It's a public building, with public servants, talking about public policy.
So is No 10 Downing Street. I think you'd be escorted out pretty sharpish and without much fuss about whether you were gripped lightly by the neck if you found a way to walk in there.
The fact no10 is now a fortress is a bad thing. We would be better off if there were serious discussions about climate change behind that black door.
Hasn’t the U.K. already done more than most on this front?
If you believe the spin. The latest is Tories for wind-farms. The truth is there is yet more to do. And Brexit is not helping.
The fact no10 is now a fortress is a bad thing. We would be better off if there were serious discussions about climate change behind that black door.
Of course it's a bad thing, but there are serious discussions about climate change there, as is witnessed by the remarkable progress the UK has made on this issue. The protestors aren't interested in serious discussions, unfortunately.
We were discussing earlier whether Bojo might lose his seat at the GE. It's since occured to me that Jeremy Hunt is also in a somewhat precarious position - his seat is a high LD target, and the way things are going I wouldn't put money on him surviving.
They didn't break in. They walked in. And it wasn't really all that private either. It's a public building, with public servants, talking about public policy.
So is No 10 Downing Street. I think you'd be escorted out pretty sharpish and without much fuss about whether you were gripped lightly by the neck if you found a way to walk in there.
The fact no10 is now a fortress is a bad thing. We would be better off if there were serious discussions about climate change behind that black door.
They didn't break in. They walked in. And it wasn't really all that private either. It's a public building, with public servants, talking about public policy.
So is No 10 Downing Street. I think you'd be escorted out pretty sharpish and without much fuss about whether you were gripped lightly by the neck if you found a way to walk in there.
The fact no10 is now a fortress is a bad thing. We would be better off if there were serious discussions about climate change behind that black door.
Hasn’t the U.K. already done more than most on this front?
If you believe the spin. The latest is Tories for wind-farms. The truth is there is yet more to do. And Brexit is not helping.
So if Boris or Hunt delivers Brexit by October the Tories win a clear majority with the Brexit Party collapsing to 9% or 12%. If not the Brexit Party is largest party with the Tories collapsing to 4th under Hunt though still level with Labour under Boris
Maybe, maybe not - misleading to assume this poll is accurate or that those polled are accurately predicting what they will do in 9 months time.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
A Boris majority then FTA for GB and backstop for NI
What do you mean by a FTA?
Free Trade Agreement
And what exactly is one of those when it's at home - hint I know I want to see what your definition is in as much detail as you care to give me...
You do assume that contributors here are willing to indulge you. Why don't you first tell us in copious detail what your definition of a FTA is.
HYUFD has continually stated that we need an FTA for the last few days. Why should I provide my definition for something that he is insisting on?
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
It's the SFO taking action. Not the FCA.
Of course, my mistake. I get so used to the FCA screwing everything up that I misremembered this one!
I don't think any of the ex-Labour Independents would support a Boris Govt in a VNOC - none voted for May in January. Doubtful too that Lady Hermon will remain on board .
Hence why I think its fair to say we don't know where we really are at the moment.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose. On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins? What if Sinn Fein rock up? What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all? Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there? What if Mark Field does resign as an MP? What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems? What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time? What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal? What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will) B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
Enjoy the show. If PB readers can't enjoy a lengthy period, with no end in sight, of no-one having a clue what is going to happen or how to sort it out and every possibility (and lots of impossibilities) on the table, then what could they enjoy? I prefer this to living in North Korea, China, or Corbyn's UK.
I was with you...
...and then you go and spoil it by lumping N Korea, China and a Labour led UK together as if they were all of a muchness. Corbyn's Labour would be pretty standard Scandanavian social democrats. Project Fear.
I see another YouGov has the Lib Dems above Labour and the Tories and only a couple of points behind TBP...
TBP. 23 LD 21 Lab 20 Con 20 Grn 9
Fieldwork 18-19 June.
This is going to be one of the most unpredictable GEs in UK history.
Electoral Calculus makes the Brexit Party largest party in another hung parliament on 265 MPs on that Yougov with Labour second on 178 and LDs third on 80, the Tories on 60 and SNP on 42
The Tories would fall to 4th but still be Kingmakers between a Farage or Corbyn premiership
Of course, the chaotic situation (in the mathematical tense), coupled with the lack of Brexit Party ground game historically and local factors plus tactical voting would probably result in four parties between 100 and 200 seats. Best guess would be Labour on high hundreds (170-195), Brexit Party mid-to-high hundreds (155-180), Lib Dems low-to-mid hundreds (110-135), Cons low hundreds (100-125). Or thereabouts.
Can't see it myself. FPTP is unlikely to give a result as (vaguely) proportional as that.
Suspect Con and TBP will be fishing in the same pool to a larger extent than LAB and LDs.
Could be, but at this point we're looking at Labour right down to their most solid redoubts. Otherwise they'd have fallen yet further. Brexit Party should be further up on "normal" FPTP, but Peterborough-like ground-game failure drops them down a decent chunk, mainly to the benefit of the Tories, who would otherwise, on these sorts of figures and a swing from now, be on mid-double-figures. Lib Dems benefiting from a lot of coming-through-the-middle in those BXP/Con fights and places where Labour have vapourised.
To be fair, on the proportionality front, the party who came third in votes would be first or second on seats, the one second in votes would be third or fourth in seats, the one who came first in votes would be second or third in seats, and the one fourth in votes would be third or fourth in seats.
Yes but four parties with between 100-200 seats?
Not at all likely imho - but really, who tf knows?
Comments
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/21/is-it-bye-bye-to-by-elections/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/27/bye-bye-by-elections-part-2-mps-who-resigned-their-seats-and-stood-in-the-ensuing-by-election/
https://twitter.com/smartysue/status/1142046497950838784
(but the point is I think solid)
If Boris wants a quick GE, can he wait till after the summer recess - means calling it in early September for a mid October GE? That is surely going to look odd, so close to the Brexit deadline.
So might he call it immediately on taking office - on say 24 July for GE in first week in September? If necessary, summer recess could be delayed for a day or two in order to hold the vote and do any other necessary formalities.
The latter seems much more credible re Brexit. Two other advantages:
- No time for any cock-ups / other problems / other narratives to throw him off course
- Labour likely to still be sitting on fence re Brexit - with no time for any Conference to change party policy
Great system
"Mark Field would have delighted in gunning down people in Tiananmen Square!"
[end hyperbole]
Funny how people routinely branded as thick xenophobes are expected to become wise after Brexit....
If someone broke into your private home or club and interrupted you to rant and rave at will in front of your friends and family, with no right for you to intervene or eject them on the grounds of “peaceful protest”, would that be acceptable?
Peaceful protest means the right for people to express their opposition to policy without being shot, suppressed or intimidated. There have always been rules on it and notifications required, which is why the police regulate marches and approval is needed to fly the Trump baby.
It doesn’t mean you can do whatever you like whenever you like through trespass on private property, with everyone else having to sit there and suffer in silence until you’re done, on the grounds of free expression.
Sometimes people are out of line actively committing a civil or criminal offence and if they won’t leave when asked, regardless of their motive, can be quite rightly made to leave. That doesn’t cut across the right to peaceful protest and is not in conflict with it.
Message from me is that Sam White seems to be a pillock.
What's happened to your wokeness? - didn't last very long.
Today, right now, there is a Conservative led government. They have only 312 MPs supporting them on all legislative matters. There are (potentially) up to 337 MPs who might oppose.
On the same basis, we have a government who can count on the Confidence of 322 MPs, with potentially 327MPs who might oppose such Confidence.
On the raw numbers, the Conservatives are deep in the red, running a minority administration day to day by luck and prayer.
After that, we get into all sorts of 'what about?' 'what if?' territory.
What if Nick Boles rejoins?
What if Sinn Fein rock up?
What if Johnny Mercer won't support the Cons after all?
Which independents might be tempted to support the government? How many are there?
What if Mark Field does resign as an MP?
What if the Brecon by-election is lost to the Lib Dems?
What other skeletons does any Con MP have in the closet that might come out at any point in time?
What if Grieve, Lee and Greening leave and join the Lib Dems if the PM goes for No Deal?
What if the ERG leave and join the BXP if the PM goes for revoke?
Some of the above are more or less likely to happen. I can't really see Sinn Fein attending, but can you guarantee they won't?
It's not a way to run a government. We can't go on like this for much longer. Either:
A) We need a General Election to try to clarify the mess; or
B.) The Conservatives need to approach another party with sufficient MPs for a formal coalition mid-parliament (like the Lib-Lab pact) to get through.
A) may produce chaos (probably will)
B.) isn't a bad idea, but who?
Needed one by the looks of it.
Also, psychologists have found that people are less likely to intervene (including in clear-cut cases where intervention is necessary, such as trying to help someone who's on fire) the more numerous they are.
In any event, how is Boris going to deliver Brexit by 31st October? I can see no path to that.
Such as this line of his: "No one appears threatened by a young Greenpeace activist in a red dress". Echoed by many elsewhere including on here. I will not make a comment on Field's actions but this line is bollocks of the purest order. No one is a threat until they are a threat.
Plenty of people have watched the video 20x and have determined that she wasn't a threat. Absolute bollocks.
Here's some specialist security training for those types:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UobUoZClKG0
The BXP are hardly likely to resist fighting it and will split the Tory vote which ever way it goes. Additionally, if Labour wake up and remove Mr. Thicky and replace with a normal human being the Tories won't stand a chance. It is only Corbyn that are keeping them in contention.
But what about Lab? YouGov suggests that if Brexit happens Lab share goes up approx 3% at the expense of the LDs - presumably as those 3% think there is no longer any point in voting LD to stop Brexit - as it's then no longer an issue. But how does Lab significantly increase its support?
But supposedly on superior terms.
Best guess would be Labour on high hundreds (170-195), Brexit Party mid-to-high hundreds (155-180), Lib Dems low-to-mid hundreds (110-135), Cons low hundreds (100-125). Or thereabouts.
The justice system is one of those unseen, not much loved but utterly essential parts of a civilised society. It is a disgrace that we are neglecting it and, worse, that there is little chance that any available government will do anything about this.
Suspect Con and TBP will be fishing in the same pool to a larger extent than LAB and LDs.
Labour is of course now in the grip of Corbynism from the NEC down
Boris is not bothered by the NI backstop and with a majority can ignore the DUP and accept it until a technical solution is found to the Irish border, even with a confirmatory referendum in NI if need be
Unless we’re going to transform into the Japan of three decades ago...
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/15/national/media-national/lawyerlessness-luxury-japan-can-no-longer-afford/
Brexit Party should be further up on "normal" FPTP, but Peterborough-like ground-game failure drops them down a decent chunk, mainly to the benefit of the Tories, who would otherwise, on these sorts of figures and a swing from now, be on mid-double-figures. Lib Dems benefiting from a lot of coming-through-the-middle in those BXP/Con fights and places where Labour have vapourised.
To be fair, on the proportionality front, the party who came third in votes would be first or second on seats, the one second in votes would be third or fourth in seats, the one who came first in votes would be second or third in seats, and the one fourth in votes would be third or fourth in seats.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/21/ex-barclays-boss-acquitted-over-qatari-deal
About time too. It beggars belief that the only senior bank executives prosecuted for events related to the financial crisis have been Barclays executives who took action to keep the bank solvent, saved taxpayers from having to bail them out, and who avoided their shareholders being wiped out.
It seems to me a breach of natural justice that the other three face a retrial, following the utterly incompetent handling of the case by the FCA.
That person was a Londoner, male, aged between 25-34, voted Remain in 2016 and Conservative in 2017, social group ABC1.
Not quite the cakewalk it looked for England.
Instead, they are on their yachts.
Standing outside and protesting is fine
Characteristic Rashid over; two wickets and two boundaries.
Vince.... two boundaries, and his wicket.
The actual arithmetic is that currently the Conservatives hold a working majority of 3 (or 4).
We simply don't know which way the various floaters on either side might break but I would say one thing fairly confidently. Boris isn't going to be a happy selection for lots of Tory MP's and he's likewise a great unity candidate for Labour.
Barclays made some mistakes but sorted themselves out without taxpayers funds.
Every new PM enjoys a honeymoon. Even in normal circumstances Boris would enjoy less of one than most. To add to this, almost as soon as he's in post everyone is off on holiday, taking all momentum out of it. Meanwhile, the clock will be ticking down again to the deadline.
It's far from ideal.
Not at all likely imho - but really, who tf knows?
Jones, though, like I say, can be OTT - maybe is a bit here - and he has become too slavishly Corbynite for my taste, but he is intelligent and articulate (in print and in person) and he is effective. Just as importantly, a good heart. Written a couple of excellent books too.
I think people on the right are unable to appreciate his qualities precisely BECAUSE he is effective. This annoys them - as does his slightly 'cocky' manner and aura of yoof.
Fair enough, it's hard to be objective. I can do it but I realize that makes me a bit odd.
For example, I cannot abide Rod Liddle but I recognise the skill of his writing and the presence of comic talent there. He can get me chuckling whilst at the same time utterly despising the message he is putting across.
Alas, I can say no more.
...and then you go and spoil it by lumping N Korea, China and a Labour led UK together as if they were all of a muchness. Corbyn's Labour would be pretty standard Scandanavian social democrats. Project Fear.