politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brecon & Radnor recall petition succeeds and an early by-e
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brecon & Radnor recall petition succeeds and an early by-election test for the new CON leader is in prospect
The result for the Chris Davies by election vote is announced. More on @ITVWales later pic.twitter.com/PC24Ex9XqM
Comments
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1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?0 -
Second... like the Conservatives. If they're lucky.0
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0
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4th like the Tories0
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It will fall to 2 if an opposition party wins the by-election (though a Brexit Party MP would quite likely support the government in a VONC)Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?0 -
If the Tories lose the seat the opposition parties gain it and that reduces the overall majority by two.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?0 -
3 surely?not_on_fire said:
It will fall to 2 if an opposition party wins the by-election.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
It was 5 this morning wasn't it? Or not. It's getting so tight it's quite hard to work out!0 -
Indeed. But didn't they start on 5 this morning Mike? Or do you make it 4 before the recall?MikeSmithson said:
If the Tories lose the seat the opposition parties gain it and that reduces the overall majority by two.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?0 -
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?0 -
Off topic: Just rescued another brood of mallard ducklings from our back garden. Just two this time. Mother and babies doing well, heading across the field in the general direction of water.2
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I thought the working majority was 4, though as you say it's constantly changing!Mysticrose said:
3 surely?not_on_fire said:
It will fall to 2 if an opposition party wins the by-election.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
It was 5 this morning wasn't it? Or not. It's getting so tight it's quite hard to work out!0 -
I also assume Mark Field will be under IMMENSE pressure to NOT resign as an MP.
Where he actually to do so, and the both By-elections lost, the government majority would fall to zero.0 -
Isn't the seat already lost following the success of the recall and Davies now no longer the MP- seat is vacant ?MikeSmithson said:
If the Tories lose the seat the opposition parties gain it and that reduces the overall majority by two.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?0 -
Important wicket for england.
Abba-tastic as Fernando falls :
Can you hear the wicket fall Fernando?
I remember long ago another starry match like this
In the firelight Fernando
You were humming to yourself and softly stroked the ball
You couldn't see the distant Rashid
And the sounds of cat calls were coming from afar0 -
The banter heuristic suggests that Theresa May will withdraw the whip from him the day before Boris becomes prime minister.TheValiant said:I also assume Mark Field will be under IMMENSE pressure to NOT resign as an MP.
Where he actually to do so, and the both By-elections lost, the government majority would fall to zero.0 -
With this and mark field....and the sandbach complaint.
A good look for the modern tory party.0 -
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?0 -
Could be in for a Lib-Dem "spectacular" - just like in the old days.
Time to party like its 1993.
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Hopefully they don't encounter any murderous cats like Palmerston.SandyRentool said:Off topic: Just rescued another brood of mallard ducklings from our back garden. Just two this time. Mother and babies doing well, heading across the field in the general direction of water.
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I expect that Labour would go for it, but they would be in danger of losing 60 or so seats at the moment, so that could be a deterrent.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
The independents will only go for it if they want to do something else with their lives than be MP's.0 -
It's a really awkward seat for the Conservatives to have a by-election in. Their first objective must be to stay ahead of the Brexit party. I wonder if one of the bookies will offer a market on a head to head between them.1
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Labour will point to Peterborough. Whether they're right to I don't know but they will.Sean_F said:
I expect that Labour would go for it, but they would be in danger of losing 60 or so seats at the moment, so that could be a deterrent.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
The independents will only go for it if they want to do something else with their lives than be MP's.
The independents, I guess you're right. Sigh.0 -
Not sure if that table is up to date. I think the LD seats total should be 11, one down from the GE - didn't the Lib Dem MP for Eastbourne resign the whip?Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?0 -
Have there been any Westminster voting intention polls for NI? Curious as to whether any of the DUP's 10 seats might be vulnerable - could matter a lot if there is another close result.0
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They've got Chuka Umunna now.not_on_fire said:
Not sure if that table is up to date. I think the LD seats total should be 11, one down from the GE - didn't the Lib Dem MP for Eastbourne resign the whip?Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?0 -
Yes but he was re-set by Chuka I think, so 12not_on_fire said:
Not sure if that table is up to date. I think the LD seats total should be 11, one down from the GE - didn't the Lib Dem MP for Eastbourne resign the whip?Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?0 -
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.0 -
Sure, but even if the Peterborough result were repeated nationwide, Labour would go significantly backwards in net terms.Mysticrose said:
Labour will point to Peterborough. Whether they're right to I don't know but they will.Sean_F said:
I expect that Labour would go for it, but they would be in danger of losing 60 or so seats at the moment, so that could be a deterrent.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
The independents will only go for it if they want to do something else with their lives than be MP's.
The independents, I guess you're right. Sigh.0 -
Ah of courseAlastairMeeks said:
They've got Chuka Umunna now.not_on_fire said:
Not sure if that table is up to date. I think the LD seats total should be 11, one down from the GE - didn't the Lib Dem MP for Eastbourne resign the whip?Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?0 -
What if he is facing charges for assault, as looks quite possible?TheValiant said:I also assume Mark Field will be under IMMENSE pressure to NOT resign as an MP.
Where he actually to do so, and the both By-elections lost, the government majority would fall to zero.0 -
Absolutely.Peter_the_Punter said:
LD winning there? They presumably start favorite, Jack?JackW said:Sky News - Brecon & Radnor heads for by-election as recall vote passes.
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If you believe this, you should bet on the Conservatives:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1142026414927089664
I don't believe this.0 -
It'd be really great actually if someone nerdy wanted to go into this thoroughly and set out the numbers with position viz a viz WA / Brexit and the Conservatives. Maybe even a spreadsheet? It's not a given that all the opposition would support a VONC. But if they did, it's very close to curtains for this Government.0
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‘Make sure Boris doesn’t betray us’ is going to be quite a persuasive argument for them.AlastairMeeks said:It's a really awkward seat for the Conservatives to have a by-election in. Their first objective must be to stay ahead of the Brexit party. I wonder if one of the bookies will offer a market on a head to head between them.
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Excellent. A bit of by-election fun for the slow mid summer period.0
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Because there's nothing else happening now?rottenborough said:Excellent. A bit of by-election fun for the slow mid summer period.
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Number of Labour MPs unwilling to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister?TheValiant said:
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.0 -
Great, that's really helpful. Thank you.TheValiant said:
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.
All eyes on Phillip Lee ...
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By letting in the Lib Dems? Seems a hard way to ensure Boris does it, by gifting the seat to the Lib Dems.Nigelb said:
‘Make sure Boris doesn’t betray us’ is going to be quite a persuasive argument for them.AlastairMeeks said:It's a really awkward seat for the Conservatives to have a by-election in. Their first objective must be to stay ahead of the Brexit party. I wonder if one of the bookies will offer a market on a head to head between them.
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I can see why some hope for an election but there are many mps seats under threat including labour ones and all the independents. I cannot see a vonc being an attractive proposition across the HOC excluding the SNP0
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A remarkably defeatist line for the Brexit party to adopt.Philip_Thompson said:
By letting in the Lib Dems? Seems a hard way to ensure Boris does it, by gifting the seat to the Lib Dems.Nigelb said:
‘Make sure Boris doesn’t betray us’ is going to be quite a persuasive argument for them.AlastairMeeks said:It's a really awkward seat for the Conservatives to have a by-election in. Their first objective must be to stay ahead of the Brexit party. I wonder if one of the bookies will offer a market on a head to head between them.
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Would imagine that South Belfast would be very vulnerable, esp given Brexit.not_on_fire said:Have there been any Westminster voting intention polls for NI? Curious as to whether any of the DUP's 10 seats might be vulnerable - could matter a lot if there is another close result.
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Of course, but this is the problem with the FTPA.Mysticrose said:
Labour will point to Peterborough. Whether they're right to I don't know but they will.Sean_F said:
I expect that Labour would go for it, but they would be in danger of losing 60 or so seats at the moment, so that could be a deterrent.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
The independents will only go for it if they want to do something else with their lives than be MP's.
The independents, I guess you're right. Sigh.
Government proposes legislation (any legislation - doesn't matter - it could be the 'don't pick your nose at a bus stop Act) = defeated as only get 312 votes FOR. The DUP agreement is only C&S.
Labour table No Confidence vote, and it fails because DUP suddenly switch to support and a lot of independents find themselves washing their hair that night.
Rinse and repeat (no pun intended).
How long can a Government REALLY go on, not able to get ANYTHING passed but surviving any VoNC thrown their way? Three years of zombie government. I can't see it.
This is the problem with the FTPA. Confidence motions are not coupled with legislation, so people like Sammy Wilson can vote against the government on everything all day long, but then support them on the VoNC later that night.
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Isn't that 30.9% at a General Election?AlastairMeeks said:If you believe this, you should bet on the Conservatives:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1142026414927089664
I don't believe this.
This is a by-election. So must be much lower surely?0 -
Afternoon all
I'd caution against LD over-confidence in this by-election. Against the apparently national euphoria that will greet Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister (and I imagine he'll pay a couple of visits to the constituency in the campaign), the LDs will need to be at the top of their game.
It will be a real test for the Party's new leader and it's always good to get that by-election win whatever the circumstances.
Meanwhile, in other areas:
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2019/06/nao-rubbishes-government-over-data-usage-and-storage?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
How can Governments and indeed Councils take the right decisions if they don't have the right information? My experience of local Government information systems is they are clogged with information but none of it is much use for (and very often the authority doesn't have the tools to carry out) proper data analysis and forecasting.
One or two examples of good practice exist but I suspect local and central Government is drowning in a porridge of useless information.0 -
IMHO, the government will survive a Vote of Confidence if the Conservatives have 307 or more MPs.TheValiant said:
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.
307 plus DUP plus Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, minus one Deputy Speaker is 319
That leaves 321 who could vote against, but I expect Austin and some of CHUK would abstain.
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Gotta pick your battles I guess. Lib Dems got mauled in Peterborough, I dont think Brecon is very fertile for the BXP.Nigelb said:
A remarkably defeatist line for the Brexit party to adopt.Philip_Thompson said:
By letting in the Lib Dems? Seems a hard way to ensure Boris does it, by gifting the seat to the Lib Dems.Nigelb said:
‘Make sure Boris doesn’t betray us’ is going to be quite a persuasive argument for them.AlastairMeeks said:It's a really awkward seat for the Conservatives to have a by-election in. Their first objective must be to stay ahead of the Brexit party. I wonder if one of the bookies will offer a market on a head to head between them.
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Have to say that from an objective POV as opposed to someone caring about the state of the nation, the next best thing to a General Election is a true minority Government. I remember Jim Callaghan's final months and the problems John Major had even starting out with a 21 seat majority.
But this is something else. At a critical juncture in this nation's history, with the governing party about to elect someone massively divisive, the Government is almost bereft of its working majority.
It's a fantastic spectacle.0 -
FPT
It could be either of those. But note that both the Conservatives and Labour were working for a recall in Peterborough, while only the Lib Dems were in Brecon & Radnor. That might be part of it.tlg86 said:
Two thirds of the size of the Peterborough recall. Do you think that's due to the rural nature of the seat or does it suggest the constituents aren't quite as pissed off about it as they were with Onasanya?AlastairMeeks said:
That would be brave given the size of the recall. The Conservatives must be staring down the barrel of a gun on this one.tlg86 said:Is Davies going to be the Tory candidate?
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He’d still probably not resign - and I think charges are very unlikely.not_on_fire said:
What if he is facing charges for assault, as looks quite possible?TheValiant said:I also assume Mark Field will be under IMMENSE pressure to NOT resign as an MP.
Where he actually to do so, and the both By-elections lost, the government majority would fall to zero.
A civil case is a possibility, I suppose.0 -
Can’t see them not seriously contesting it, though.Brom said:
Gotta pick your battles I guess. Lib Dems got mauled in Peterborough, I dont think Brecon is very fertile for the BXP.Nigelb said:
A remarkably defeatist line for the Brexit party to adopt.Philip_Thompson said:
By letting in the Lib Dems? Seems a hard way to ensure Boris does it, by gifting the seat to the Lib Dems.Nigelb said:
‘Make sure Boris doesn’t betray us’ is going to be quite a persuasive argument for them.AlastairMeeks said:It's a really awkward seat for the Conservatives to have a by-election in. Their first objective must be to stay ahead of the Brexit party. I wonder if one of the bookies will offer a market on a head to head between them.
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Whoever gets to be next Conservative leader is going to have to think very carefully about what they say in hustings if they want to be next Prime Minister too.Sean_F said:
IMHO, the government will survive a Vote of Confidence if the Conservatives have 307 or more MPs.TheValiant said:
I think Nick Boles ISN'T in the Con total, whilst Mercer is.Mysticrose said:
Actually that looks right: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/TheValiant said:
I make it three? 312 CON MPs. 10 DUP = 322.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?
1 vacant. 7 not attending. 1 Speaker.
Opposed 319 [1] [2]
[1] I always get confused with Deputy Speakers - are they allowed to vote or not?
[2] I realise Nick Boles and Lady Herman may be counted upon to support the government, but not technically?
322 v 319
So if the tories lose the by election it will be 322 v 320
This really is starting to enter endgame territory for this parliament. Surely?
Mind you, a successful VONC does depend on the independents & even Labour MPs falling into line and that's by no means a given. Where are Nick Boles and Johnny Mercer in these figures? They surely won't support a VONC?
I always work back from the General Election.
318 Con win - Bercow is counted as 'Con', so then goes to Speaker = 317
Three (Allen, Wollaston and Soubry) to CUK = 314
Boles walks = 313
Davies unseated = 312
Mercer? If you don't count him, then its 311.
If somehow Field also decides to fall on his sword, its 310.
The 'government' can survive for a bit longer if it is really 312.
If it really becomes 310, I think they're heading for toastville.
307 plus DUP plus Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, minus one Deputy Speaker is 319
That leaves 321 who could vote against, but I expect Austin and some of CHUK would abstain.0 -
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Blimey. LibDems have opened as 1/5 red hot favourites. Their Welsh leader is candidate.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1142022855753916416
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Thought I'd drive by and inflict this on everyone. Not even sorry.
https://twitter.com/bexin2d/status/11420264472903475210 -
Losing an MP here and an MP there makes a huge difference in a hung parliament with a divisive PM.0
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IndeedJonathan said:Losing an MP here and an MP there makes a huge difference in a hung parliament with a divisive PM.
I can think of a handful of Cons MPs who might not support him even in a VONC. I mean, in one way why on earth would Dominic Grieve have any incentive to do so?0 -
True, but normally by-elections are seen as a harmless way to send a message to the government without changing anything. If this byelection could bring down the government it is a different state of affairsPhilip_Thompson said:
Isn't that 30.9% at a General Election?AlastairMeeks said:If you believe this, you should bet on the Conservatives:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1142026414927089664
I don't believe this.
This is a by-election. So must be much lower surely?0 -
Yep that lot looks about right, BRP and the outsiders Lab, Plaid, Green probably all too short.MikeSmithson said:0 -
And here is the funny bit. You're probably right about 307MPs.Sean_F said:
IMHO, the government will survive a Vote of Confidence if the Conservatives have 307 or more MPs.
307 plus DUP plus Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, minus one Deputy Speaker is 319
That leaves 321 who could vote against, but I expect Austin and some of CHUK would abstain.
We here are talking about making a minority government work with just 307 Conservative MPs.
David Cameron, and no one on this site, believed they could with 307 in May 2010.
It comes to something when you are basically relying on the ill-discipline of opposition MPs and the goodwill of former Conservative MPs.
It's why I can't see them managing to 2022. We're in deadsville territory. A government surviving only because the opposition can't be bothered opposing!
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Adrian Chiles on R5 doing a good job right now on the Field thing.0
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And a parliament even more paralysed than under Theresa May.TheValiant said:Sean_F said:
IMHO, the government will survive a Vote of Confidence if the Conservatives have 307 or more MPs.
307 plus DUP plus Woodcock, Lewis, Hermon, minus one Deputy Speaker is 319
That leaves 321 who could vote against, but I expect Austin and some of CHUK would abstain.
It's why I can't see them managing to 2022. We're in deadsville territory. A government surviving only because the opposition can't be bothered opposing!
Can anyone really see Boris Johnson putting up with this? I think he will pre-empt and go to the country.0 -
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That's certainly another factor. Grieve and Lee have broken with their party, emotionally. OTOH, voting against your own side in a vote of confidence ends friendships forever.Mysticrose said:
IndeedJonathan said:Losing an MP here and an MP there makes a huge difference in a hung parliament with a divisive PM.
I can think of a handful of Cons MPs who might not support him even in a VONC. I mean, in one way why on earth would Dominic Grieve have any incentive to do so?0 -
If a General Election is called then the by-election is cancelled even if the writ has been moved already right?0
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I'd make the Lib Dems favourites, certainly, but I wouldn't but their chances at 85%.Pulpstar said:
Yep that lot looks about right, BRP and the outsiders Lab, Plaid, Green probably all too short.MikeSmithson said:0 -
0
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The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-3100
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That's what happened with Gorton in 2017Philip_Thompson said:If a General Election is called then the by-election is cancelled even if the writ has been moved already right?
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-19/johnson-s-backers-eye-early-u-k-election-despite-brexit-crisis
I think this is the way it will go. It's Boris' best chance of success, especially if he does a tie-in with Farage.
It will be an incredible General Election. I expect something sensational from the LibDems. But there might well be a Cons-BXP majority because Corbyn is so toxic.0 -
With an untested controversial opposition leader waiting in the wings ready to take the country in a different direction.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
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Will Mark Reckless stand for the Brexit Party just make TSE's dreams come true? 1
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Remember it so well. It was live on Radio 4. At the last minute Jim appealed in his speech to successive members opposite. A lot of commentators thought he'd swung it back. But as you say, sensationally, he lost by 1 vote and the rest, as they say, is history.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
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Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
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Field’s prompt statement has probably averted any chance of a assault charge:
“In the confusion many guests understandably felt threatened and when one protester rushed past me towards the top table I instinctively reacted.
"There was no security present and I was for a split second genuinely worried she might have been armed.
"As a result I grasped the intruder firmly in order to remove her from the room as swiftly as possible."
He added: "I deeply regret this episode and unreservedly apologise to the lady concerned for grabbing her but in the current climate I felt the need to act decisively to close down the threat to the safety of those present."
He has at the very least established reasonable doubt.0 -
That's my view.GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.0 -
Got our polling cards through the door today for the annoying Northumbria Police and Crime Commissioner by-election. I can imagine turnout will be total dog poo.0
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Was it The Fast Show that had a sketch of a Tory MP speaking to the press with his wife at his side to explain away some misdeed or other with a cock-and-bull story, and then saying that he hopes it is the end of the matter?Nigelb said:Field’s prompt statement has probably averted any chance of a assault charge:
“In the confusion many guests understandably felt threatened and when one protester rushed past me towards the top table I instinctively reacted.
"There was no security present and I was for a split second genuinely worried she might have been armed.
"As a result I grasped the intruder firmly in order to remove her from the room as swiftly as possible."
He added: "I deeply regret this episode and unreservedly apologise to the lady concerned for grabbing her but in the current climate I felt the need to act decisively to close down the threat to the safety of those present."
He has at the very least established reasonable doubt.0 -
I think he'll announce it on 5th September (first day back after summer recess) and hold it on 17th October.Mysticrose said:
That's my view.GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.
This will also be enough to get the EU to push back our "departure" date to 31st December I'd have thought...0 -
8/1 the Cons is a great price. I'm having that.0
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That is a definite cock & balls voting opportunity!Gallowgate said:Got our polling cards through the door today for the annoying Northumbria Police and Crime Commissioner by-election. I can imagine turnout will be total dog poo.
I have a 100% record of spoiling my ballot in PCC elections (but with nothing quite so graphic!).0 -
Looks like it's already come in to 4/1 sadly.kinabalu said:8/1 the Cons is a great price. I'm having that.
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Don't tell @HYUFD that!!GIN1138 said:
I think he'll announce it on 5th September (first day back after summer recess) and hold it on 17th October.Mysticrose said:
That's my view.GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.
This will also be enough to get the EU to push back our "departure" date to 31st December I'd have thought...0 -
Little Britain, IIRC, where he was explaining away his encounter with a rent boy.SandyRentool said:
Was it The Fast Show that had a sketch of a Tory MP speaking to the press with his wife at his side to explain away some misdeed or other with a cock-and-bull story, and then saying that he hopes it is the end of the matter?Nigelb said:Field’s prompt statement has probably averted any chance of a assault charge:
“In the confusion many guests understandably felt threatened and when one protester rushed past me towards the top table I instinctively reacted.
"There was no security present and I was for a split second genuinely worried she might have been armed.
"As a result I grasped the intruder firmly in order to remove her from the room as swiftly as possible."
He added: "I deeply regret this episode and unreservedly apologise to the lady concerned for grabbing her but in the current climate I felt the need to act decisively to close down the threat to the safety of those present."
He has at the very least established reasonable doubt.0 -
Looks like Rashid just sealed the game.0
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Thanks for that Gin. 5th Sept for a 17th Oct election sounds like a plan0
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Last night, I witnessed the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tory arch-sycophants Mortimer and Carlotta defending the response of Mark Field MP.
I hope they have now come to whatever sense they have left.0 -
Someone should ask Johnson if this is a waste of police resources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-487056210 -
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6mi4f8Sean_F said:
Little Britain, IIRC, where he was explaining away his encounter with a rent boy.SandyRentool said:
Was it The Fast Show that had a sketch of a Tory MP speaking to the press with his wife at his side to explain away some misdeed or other with a cock-and-bull story, and then saying that he hopes it is the end of the matter?Nigelb said:Field’s prompt statement has probably averted any chance of a assault charge:
“In the confusion many guests understandably felt threatened and when one protester rushed past me towards the top table I instinctively reacted.
"There was no security present and I was for a split second genuinely worried she might have been armed.
"As a result I grasped the intruder firmly in order to remove her from the room as swiftly as possible."
He added: "I deeply regret this episode and unreservedly apologise to the lady concerned for grabbing her but in the current climate I felt the need to act decisively to close down the threat to the safety of those present."
He has at the very least established reasonable doubt.0 -
Does the writ for the by election get moved immediately? Or can it be delayed a while until the leadership contest is over and potentially a General Election is called?MikeSmithson said:
That's what happened with Gorton in 2017Philip_Thompson said:If a General Election is called then the by-election is cancelled even if the writ has been moved already right?
I seem to recall a by-election writ in late 2009 or early 2010 not being moved for about 6 months until it became moot.0 -
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So Boris is going to run in an election where the Brexit advert will be Boris confirming we leave on October 31st Deal or No Deal with us now leaving in December.GIN1138 said:
I think he'll announce it on 5th September (first day back after summer recess) and hold it on 17th October.Mysticrose said:
That's my view.GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.
This will also be enough to get the EU to push back our "departure" date to 31st December I'd have thought...
That just doesn't work for the Tories...0 -
Further Tory defections in the wake of Boris being elected could effectively provide the coup de grace to this Government. I also doubt that Lady Hermon would be inclined to support a Boris-led Government in a VNOC.Mysticrose said:1st unlike the Tories in the Brecon & Radnor by election
So that's another Cons out.
I make the current Cons-DUP working majority 4. Can anyone disabuse me of that?
Will probably fall to 3 with the by-election. It'll only take two tories to vote against the Gov't ...
Is there any reason why the Opposition shouldn't table a vote of No Confidence now to test the arithmetic?0 -
I think that the writ is automatically triggered by the Speaker when is he is formally informed of the petition outcome.Philip_Thompson said:
Does the writ for the by election get moved immediately? Or can it be delayed a while until the leadership contest is over and potentially a General Election is called?MikeSmithson said:
That's what happened with Gorton in 2017Philip_Thompson said:If a General Election is called then the by-election is cancelled even if the writ has been moved already right?
I seem to recall a by-election writ in late 2009 or early 2010 not being moved for about 6 months until it became moot.0 -
Surely if he goes to the country on the basis that the only way to deliver Brexit is to give him a Commons majority that will work?eek said:
So Boris is going to run in an election where the Brexit advert will be Boris confirming we leave on October 31st Deal or No Deal with us now leaving in December.GIN1138 said:
I think he'll announce it on 5th September (first day back after summer recess) and hold it on 17th October.Mysticrose said:
That's my view.GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize the day before he's VONC and call a general election IMO.JackW said:The HoC numbers looks more and more like the fag end of the last months of the Callaghan government. Lost by-election, and the government majority melting away as the Lib-Lab pact confidence and supply and unofficial Unionist and SNP support ceased. The opposition tabled a VONC and won by 311-310
Question I have, is that going to be prior to Oct 31st? Surely yes?
Well, TSE wanted the excitement of Boris v Gove but the build up to a General Election would be even more so.
This will also be enough to get the EU to push back our "departure" date to 31st December I'd have thought...
That just doesn't work for the Tories...
Well, if they really believe the country wants Brexit.
Which I don't.0
