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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 ou

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 outcome

Today’s YouGov poll sees an MOE change with LAB is increasing its lead over the Tories by 1%.Nothing much there except that once again EdM’s party is in single figures.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IcaRed falls to earth - flew too far away from the Sun reader.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    Curious lower enthusiasm for Maj Lab govt amang Lab VI than for Con among Con.

    Cool graphic!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Unite Political Fund Ballot for 2013:

    http://www.learnwithunite.org/pluginfile.php/94/mod_forum/attachment/4184/Political fund ballot.ppt
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751
    FPT

    There's no reason why anyone would be able to guess it but I am pretty much as far right a Cons supporter as it is possible to be (Cons < me < UKIP).

    But what the chuffing hell are they up to appointing another Etonian (and Oxford...and...) to a high-profile position of power? Is this Lynton's work? Does BoJo have compromising pictures of Dave with Carole Thatcher?

    Please someone explain to me.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Carlotta

    If anyone wants to bet on it I'll entertain anyone wanting to be on a 'no' result ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TOPPING said:

    Please someone explain to me.

    Brogan's take:

    Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Re A&E figs and pressures - these are pretty striking numbers. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10016521/GPs-blamed-for-crisis-in-out-of-hours-health-care.html

    When the contract was initially renegotiated in 2004, GPs had their salaries reduced by £6,000 if they stopped providing care out of hours. However, other changes to the contract meant that average pay rose by a third, with many GPs earning six-figure salaries.

    Following the changes, 90 per cent of family doctors stopped providing emergency cover, leaving patients to rely on phone services, agency doctors or hospital visits. In 2004/05, 17.7 million people used England’s A&E departments. By last year, that had risen to 21.7 million.

    In opposition, the Conservatives pledged to renegotiate the contracts. However, attempts to change them have proved difficult, and the Government is scrutinising other ways of improving the out-of-hours service. The official review on the issue is expected to report at the end of the May.

    Senior Government figures hope that highlighting the failures will add to the pressure for change...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751
    edited April 2013
    CarlottaVance said:

    TOPPING said:

    Please someone explain to me.

    Brogan's take:

    Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.
    And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

    He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

    If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    At what time do we get the preliminary guess from the ONS, based on 40% of the data, of whether the economy expanded in Q1 by one part in a thousand or contracted by one part in a thousand, with error bars of ten parts in a thousand?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Thanks Carlotta. I've been playing about with the visual presentation of party splits and this one seems to work.
    CarlottaVance said:



    Cool graphic!

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RichardNabavi said:

    At what time do we get the preliminary guess from the ONS, based on 40% of the data, of whether the economy expanded in Q1 by one part in a thousand or contracted by one part in a thousand, with error bars of ten parts in a thousand?

    0930 - and it'll get a single mention on R5 as surprising or all month on a TRIPLE DIP even if its 0.1%...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    TOPPING said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TOPPING said:

    Please someone explain to me.

    Brogan's take:

    Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.
    And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

    He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

    If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.
    What's wrong with being hardworking and smart enough to get into Eton? or Oxford? The Johnsons IIRC re Boris got a scholarship. There are no waiting lists for either and are dependent on merit.

    I hate class war - its going back to the 70s in a very negative way. The only acceptable form of prejudice now is class - and its wrong.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Ouch. Spanish unemployment reaches 27.2%.

    It rather puts our own troubles in perspective.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22290422
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    TOPPING said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TOPPING said:

    Please someone explain to me.

    Brogan's take:

    Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.
    And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

    He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

    If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.
    You seem amusingly confused considering it was myself who first highlighted that fop chumocracy story on here that seemingly disgusts you so much.

    No matter. The idea that the PB tories are an asset to their party is even funnier. ;^)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    edited April 2013
    Is it me, or is this bloody silly (again)?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22280078

    A separate Scottish coronation if the Scots separate. But then, the argument will go, why not a separate Canadian coronation? Or Jamaican? Or Fijiian [the monarch is paramount chief of Fiji]?

    Edited extra bit: rare moment as I think Sturgeon's speaking sense on this:
    "Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who also speaks for the Scottish government on the constitution, said: "I don't think that is necessary, if you take the Queen just now she is head of state of many different Commonwealth countries, there doesn't require to be separate coronations in each of these. "
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751
    Mick_Pork said:

    TOPPING said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TOPPING said:

    Please someone explain to me.

    Brogan's take:

    Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.
    And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

    He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

    If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.
    You seem amusingly confused considering it was myself who first highlighted that fop chumocracy story on here that seemingly disgusts you so much.

    No matter. The idea that the PB tories are an asset to their party is even funnier. ;^)
    QED

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751
    Plato said:

    TOPPING said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TOPPING said:

    Please someone explain to me.

    Brogan's take:

    Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.
    And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

    He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

    If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.
    What's wrong with being hardworking and smart enough to get into Eton? or Oxford? The Johnsons IIRC re Boris got a scholarship. There are no waiting lists for either and are dependent on merit.

    I hate class war - its going back to the 70s in a very negative way. The only acceptable form of prejudice now is class - and its wrong.
    Of course it's wrong of course it's fantastic that bright people get on and of course they should get on.

    But this is politics.

    The Cons have an image problem whether we like it or not. People perceive them to be out of touch and an elite (notwithstanding that 90% of people who took that new class test ended up as being elite).

    So they appoint an Etonian to a high-profile position of power.

    If nothing else it is just bad politics.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2013
    Jo Johnson - First in Modern History, MBA Insead, fluent in French but an Etonian, ex banker and Bullingdon Club - has talent.

    Whilst the anti-Thatcher rants of John O'Farrell are a mere outbreaks of immature rage of a lefty luvvie.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Topping, I'd sooner the Conservatives opposed class war than appeased it.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    TOPPING said:

    And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

    He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

    Even small children can understand that having a site full of tories who deny that obvious image problem is counterproductive yet you save your ire for those who spotted it long before you did.

    Keep up the good work.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2013
    What will Jo Johnson do if Boris ran against Dave, would he do an Ed Miliband and knife his brother or walk away from Cameron?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    They should employ a street urchin in a shell suit to do the job.

    Preferably effnik and perhaps homosexual.

    Office nickname could be Token.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Good morning. Just a reminder

    Scoring Guide to the UK Masters 
    +0.6% up         Hole in One, Drinks all round
    +0.4% to +0.5%   Eagle
    +0.2% to +0.3%   Birdie
    --------------------------------------
    +0.1% to -0.1%   Par
    --------------------------------------
    -0.2% to -0.3%   Bogey
    -0.3% to -0.5%   Double Bogey
    -0.6% down       George loses PGA card
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Johnson like you and me, can't choose his parents. He has had a hugely expensive education, beyond the reach of most individuals, but hasn't wasted his opportunities.

    Eton, Oxford, higher degree at Insead - not places where a fool can thrive for too long and not be found out.

    If only there was a budding chemist from Grantham being remade instead.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    -0.1% would not be a par ALP - not even at the stroke index 1 hole that Gordon left behind.

    Needs to be 0.00000% or higher.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Perhaps all chav shortlists for government jobs ?

    I'm sure the cry would be "what no travellers in no 10 ?"

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Poll tax was simply following the licence fee model tim - why no complaints for that to be changed away from a flat fee ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Jo Jo on aid to India:

    Britain needs a new 'special relationship' with India. We should start by ending overseas aid.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/6157763/cameron-wants-a-new-special-relationship-but-does-india/
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @mickPork

    I think we'll enjoy the PB Tories trying to argue that Osborne, Letwin, Johnson et al have been promoted on their merits

    And of course Tanni Grey-Thompson was turned down by this tiny circle logically

    Osbrowne ruling out the disability campaigner Tammi Grey for no good reason is pure nasty party stuff.

    The interesting thing about Jo Johnson (apart from confirming the chumocracy) is that his policy work would almost certainly be financial considering his interests like previously working as an investment banker at Deutsche Bank. Those who think Osbrowne is about to give up all his master strategising power to this newcomer are as gullible as those who thought the flounce that wasn't was a triumph or that Cammie's Cast Iron referendum pledge is anything other than flimsy desperate posturing.

  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Could a triple dip chancellor survive in the job ? If the ONS announces a significant negative figure (more than -0.2%), then I think it will be difficult for Cameron to allow Osborne to continue. I am sensing a mutiny on the Tory backbenches.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    You seem to be under the impression that I'm somehow against Cameron stuffing his govt with the incompetent male products of one school/drinking club

    I'm sure you'd be offended/outraged at whoever he appointed. Which kind of devalues your input.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Balls Oxford,no more boom or bust,no structural deficit, just economic crash.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751
    edited April 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    TOPPING said:

    And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

    He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

    Even small children can understand that having a site full of tories who deny that obvious image problem is counterproductive yet you save your ire for those who spotted it long before you did.

    Keep up the good work.

    Thing is Pork, no offence, but you are no rhetorician. Your constant whine about fops this, PB Tories that is welcome colour on the site but, of course, asinine.

    The site works best when people engage each other with vigour, imagination and thrust. You are unable to do this so your admittedly trivial points get lost.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    An interesting article on innovation in industry.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22291280

    Britain has traditionally been brilliant at research. We are fairly crummy at development of the resultant ideas, with some exceptions.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT - I think it was DaveB who suggested Southland - I've tried it again and after most of S1 - I can't bear another episode, even if a bit tiddly - its just too shouty and macho...

    I'm trying Continuum and that's proving rather hard work as well - I'm now watching Grimm again for the 3rd time, its pacey, fun, dramatic and clever. Let's hope it gets renewed. We've 4 episodes to go in S2.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    I'm not outraged or offended that Cameron draws from one tiny sliver of society, it's what I expect him to do, it's what he is.

    So run of the mill stuff requires 30 posts ? Strange logic.

    Poor chap hasn't even started and you are abusing him because of your prejudices - more shame on you than Cameron.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    TGOHF said:

    -0.1% would not be a par ALP - not even at the stroke index 1 hole that Gordon left behind.

    Needs to be 0.00000% or higher.

    +/- 0.1 represemts the consensus of economic forecasters.

    Bearing in mind that Spanish GDP is forecast to fall by -0.5% in Q1 2013; Germany is forecast to only grow over the whole of 2013 by 0.4%; Italy's economy hasn't grown for ten years; and France contracted in 2012 and is (optimistically) forecasting growth of 0.1% in Q1 2013, then I think the range of +/- 0.1% is a fair par.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    BBC Live Text

    09:16: Mick in Leeds emails:

    I heard a company director on 5 Live this morning talking about his business. He hit the nail on the head. He said these figures have no impact on the strategy of his business and are completely meaningless as they are not based on all the information that affects GDP. Too true. Something for the press to get their knickers in a twist over.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    Wow

    Declan Lyons @DeclanLyons
    23% in Spain didn't trust the EU in 2007, up to 72% by November 2012:

    https://twitter.com/DeclanLyons/status/327338265864716288/photo/1
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BIRDIE

    BOY GENIUS!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    6 inch tap in for birdie :)

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    BOOM!!!! 0.3 positive....

    Osborne you wonder!!!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013
    Any other revisions ?

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Poor old BBC - its up 0.3%

    *rewriting of daily woe scripts in progress*

    "This is surprising... but sector XYZ is suffering so let's talk about that for the next 48hrs..."
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited April 2013
    "Eton, Oxford, higher degree at Insead - not places where a fool can thrive for too long and not be found out."

    The school of hard knocks! I couldn't agree with you less.

    .03% sounds poor to average


  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    TOPPING said:


    Thing is Pork, no offence, but you are no rhetorician. Your constant whine about fops this, PB Tories that is welcome colour on the site but, of course, asinine..

    Thing is Topping, no offence, but all you have done is highlight something that those who aren't PB tories spotted long before you did.

    As a second hand poster with zero original insight you are indeed best suited to whining about those posters on here who aren't PB tories and should stick to that 'crucial' task. Sadly for you there is no shortage of inept tory spinners doing that with even more dedication to petulant tantrums and incompetent spinning that even you are capable. But at least you will be another drone to keep them company.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    tim set to go into mass 'oh look a squirrel' posting spam...
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "UK economy expanded 0.3% in first quarter of 2013, says the ONS."

    Relief on the government benches.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Grandiose said:

    "UK economy expanded 0.3% in first quarter of 2013, says the ONS."

    Relief on the government benches.

    Interestingly, and looking at previous adjustments, the 'real' figure could be even higher
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    tim said:

    @mickPork

    I think we'll enjoy the PB Tories trying to argue that Osborne, Letwin, Johnson et al have been promoted on their merits

    And of course Tanni Grey-Thompson was turned down by this tiny circle logically

    Osbrowne ruling out the disability campaigner Tammi Grey for no good reason is pure nasty party stuff.
    SmearLink?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Took Labour 10 years to get no growth tim, George has done it in 2...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    JosiasJessop said:

    An interesting article on innovation in industry.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22291280

    Britain has traditionally been brilliant at research. We are fairly crummy at development of the resultant ideas, with some exceptions.

    I worked in the BT Innovation Unit for a while and with the likes of Clay Christiansen - the trick is to fail early and often if you want to find winners that actually work both technically and have a real market.

    If you haven't read his stuff - he's very good.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    +0.3

    Flatline 6 months

    A staggeringly good performance compared to the UK's main EU competitors, which when matched with the rapid underlying deficit reduction experienced over Q1 2013 (see this week's Public Finances Bulletin), means that we will now see large revisions to the medium term forecasts of deficit reduction. The new forecasts will certainly not show the same flat-lining in deficit reduction to 2015 shown in OBR's March EFO.

    Remember tim that last month the OBR forecast total growth this year for the UK of 0.6%, with most backloaded to the last two quarters (OBR forecast only 0.1% for Q1). Already half the year's forecast growth has been achieved in Q1.
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    Given the news from the Eurozone which is pretty much all dire, this number is actually fairly decent.

    Sadly the main thing that makes sense to explain it is continued strength of government spending, since our exports are dire and consumption pretty flat on the back of personal debt.

    Let's hope Osborne has learnt his lesson and doesn't go all triumphalist, no drivel about the "march of the makers" or "putting fuel in the tank of the economy" blah blah

    long way to go before we're back to steady growth - still years IMHO.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Annualised GDP +1.2% better than France, Germany, Spain , Italy...
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Blue_rog said:

    Grandiose said:

    "UK economy expanded 0.3% in first quarter of 2013, says the ONS."

    Relief on the government benches.

    Interestingly, and looking at previous adjustments, the 'real' figure could be even higher
    Maybe. At 0.3% it is unlikely it will be revised into negative territory.

    Outperforming expectations is probably a sign that March was strong (since we had a pretty good idea of Jan + Feb coming into today) but construction and manufactoring still poor, which @tim is right to point out is a worry. The export stats should be able to show whether we're exporting more to the non-Eurozone, which would be a rebalancing in itself. IIRC there has been a small but noticable increase in that percentage in recent quarters.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    On a scale of 1-10 for good news - the 0.3% in Q1 rates perhaps a low 6.

    It is growth we badly need, but only in the services sector, so no rebalancing.

    Still, I'd say politically the chancellor has had a much better week after last week's disaster.

    Economically we are no better off, but perhaps we've now hit the floor?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Using the interactive chart above you can see how each set of party supporters responded and one that stands out for me is the Ukip split with 40% saying they’d prefer a CON majority.

    That still, however, leaves 60% not saying that.

    The LD split is, as you’d expect more in favour of coalition with a deal with LAB preferred over one with CON by 45% to 36%.
    'oh look a squirrel' Mr Smithson 'oh look a squirrel'

    When the 'oh look a squirrel' May Local Election 'oh look a squirrel' results come in 'oh look a squirrel' the PB Tories 'oh look a squirrel' had better find 'oh look a squirrel' some far more 'oh look a squirrel' convincing excuses and spin.

    LOL

    ;^)

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Oh dear - lefties not celebrating good growth news ? Anyone would think they'd have preferred a negative figure:)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @JonC

    "exports are dire"

    They're up 0.6%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Roger said:

    "Eton, Oxford, higher degree at Insead - not places where a fool can thrive for too long and not be found out."

    The school of hard knocks! I couldn't agree with you less.

    .03% sounds poor to average


    It is ten times as good as that.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Off topic but from a previous thread.

    Is this how you get through your dog's door Plato?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2314257/Sara-Elizabeth-Soto-Naked-woman-crawls-doggie-door-bath.html
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Steve Rose ‏@steveplrose

    Thompson gets dumped from a panel show with George Osborne, now David Cameron blocks her from taking a job. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/10011572/Tanni-Grey-Thompson-was-offered-Sport-England-role-but-appointment-was-vetoed-by-Number-10.html?fb …
    The odious chumocracy in all it's nasty party 'glory'.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Encouraging to see BenM taking a non-partisan line.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    No need to worry, Browns record of zero growth over 5 years is safe.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    RichardNabavi said:

    At what time do we get the preliminary guess from the ONS, based on 40% of the data, of whether the economy expanded in Q1 by one part in a thousand or contracted by one part in a thousand, with error bars of ten parts in a thousand?

    We've just had it. Unfortunate that some of the PB tories PR spinners agreed with your assessment of it's importance, isn't it? ;^)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Can't find any revisions on the ONS site for previous quarters ?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    PARIS: The Bank of France forecast on Tuesday [two weeks ago] that the French economy posted growth of 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year, unchanged from its previous estimate.
    BERLIN: Economists polled by Reuters expect it to grow by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, thereby avoiding recession.
    MADRID: Spain's recession continued in the first three months of the year, with the economy shrinking by 0.5% its seventh quarterly contraction, the Bank of Spain said Tuesday.

    Struggling to find Dublin.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Output of North Sea Oil and Gas has been a critical determinant of growth over the past few quarters.

    It is therefore interesting to note the changes in forecasts of investment in the sector made by the OBR between 2010 and 2013 (March EFO). 
    Forecast Investment in UK Oil and Gas Production
    (All figures £ billion)  Outturn|Forecast
    June 2010 Forecast                       
                      2009|2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
    Capital exp.       7.5| 8.2  8.3  7.8  5.5  7.5  7.4 
    Exploration        0.5| 0.5  0.5  0.5  0.9  0.5  0.5 
    Operating exp.     7.3| 6.6  6.3  6.2  7.7  6.0  5.8 

    Mar 2013 EFO                2011 2012|2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
    Capital exp.                 9.4 12.3|15.4 14.6 14.1 12.2 11.2
     Decommiss.                  0.5  0.7| 1.1  1.0  1.4  1.4  1.3
    Exploration                  1.4  1.7| 1.6  1.7  1.7  1.7  1.8
    Operating exp.               7.2  7.8| 9.0  9.2  9.3  9.5  9.7
    What is clear from these figures is that the Coalition has worked very hard with the oil companies to increase investment in the North Sea. The benefits of the additional investment are not due to be reflected in increased output until late 2013 and 2014, so this underpins the general forecasts of stronger growth in 2014-15 seen in recent forecasts.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The kippers seem ever more confident. Wonder what their campaigning on the ground is telling them?
    UKIP ‏@UKIP 12m

    "We have more candidates in the county council elections than the LibDems, a party whose heartbeat is local gov." http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nigel-farage-ukip-is-bringing-the-local-people-back-to-politics-8586192.html …
  • Bob_SykesBob_Sykes Posts: 11
    We know Ed Balls cries at the Antiques Roadshow. Do we suppose he's having a blub at these disappointing (for him) better than most expectations growth figures and the absence of a triple dip?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013
    Still at the top the GDP LIVE!!!!! page at the BBC, these are three of the four "key points":
    1) If the economy shrank between January and March, the UK will be back in recession for the third time since 2008
    2) This is known as a triple-dip recession, which has not happened in the UK since records began in the 1950s
    3) The UK economy is still smaller than it was before the onset of the financial crisis five years ago
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22288585
    And live coverage of the GDP figures?! WTF? Lot of gutted people and gritted teeth in the newsroom right now. Arf.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    I note that the Lefties Look Squirrel!!! subject is Jo Johnson's parents' choice of school...

    Really - voters don't care as polling has shown. Only those who are Class Warriors and wouldn't vote Tory in a million years are bothered.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2013
    @scampi

    'Oh dear - lefties not celebrating good growth news ? Anyone would think they'd have preferred a negative figure:)

    Their day has been wrecked,whining for the rest of the day.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    AveryLP said:

    Output of North Sea Oil and Gas has been a critical determinant of growth over the past few quarters.

    It is therefore interesting to note the changes in forecasts of investment in the sector made by the OBR between 2010 and 2013 (March EFO).

    Forecast Investment in UK Oil and Gas Production
    (All figures £ billion)  Outturn|Forecast
    June 2010 Forecast                       
                      2009|2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
    Capital exp.       7.5| 8.2  8.3  7.8  5.5  7.5  7.4 
    Exploration        0.5| 0.5  0.5  0.5  0.9  0.5  0.5 
    Operating exp.     7.3| 6.6  6.3  6.2  7.7  6.0  5.8 

    Mar 2013 EFO                2011 2012|2013 2014 2015 2016 2017                 
    Capital exp.                 9.4 12.3|15.4 14.6 14.1 12.2 11.2 
     Decommiss.                  0.5  0.7| 1.1  1.0  1.4  1.4  1.3    
    Exploration                  1.4  1.7| 1.6  1.7  1.7  1.7  1.8      
    Operating exp.               7.2  7.8| 9.0  9.2  9.3  9.5  9.7
    What is clear from these figures is that the Coalition has worked very hard with the oil companies to increase investment in the North Sea. The benefits of the additional investment are not due to be reflected in increased output until late 2013 and 2014, so this underpins the general forecasts of stronger growth in 2014-15 seen in recent forecasts.
    Does this keep pump prices and/or fuel bills relatively benign ? That could be a big factor politically going into the next GE. Sub £1.40 is excellent for the coalition, £1.45 is probably par, £1.50+ and people are going to feel poor and is bad news in my book.
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    Plato said:

    @JonC

    "exports are dire"

    They're up 0.6%.

    The countries we should be exporting to have much bigger growth than that.

    We export more to Ireland than we do to China.
    Belgium exports more to China than we do.

    Sorry but that is a dire situation. And our balance of payments is awful, something like the 3rd or 4th worst since the war.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    French unemployment figures out later - will show how the rEd/Hollande approach is faring.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Anorak said:

    Lot of gutted people and gritted teeth in the newsroom right now. Arf.

    And, of course, on PB. Double arf.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    @Tim: if the reports from Clegg that the Snooping Bill is going to be dropped, come to pass, that's good news.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    tim said:

    How funny

    Brian Strutton GMB ‏@BrianStrutton 4m
    @paulwaugh ONS data shows last quarter 0.5% growth in 'government services' . Public sector prevents the triple dip !

    As the ONS tables show, they weight government services at 23.3% of output, meaning the 0.5% rise was worth about 0.12 percentage points of growth, not nearly enough to bring us up to the 0.3% recorded.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Anorak

    It hasn't been mentioned at all on R5 after the ONS at 0930 - and was described as *dodged a triple dip*.

    It's all very amusing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,150
    0.3% growth is pretty good given that horrendously cold March, Presumably with a "normal" spring-like March we'd have been looking at 0.5%?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Well, well, well.

    What do we have here?
    Stephen Tall ‏@stephentall 12m

    .@JulianHuppert celebrates Nick Clegg's decision to kill Snoopers’ Charter http://bit.ly/15IVWJj ("Rejoice! Just rejoice at that news!")
    Poor old incompetent fops. Stymied by the lib dems from their authoritarian stupidity.

    The lib dems are going to make a huge deal of this with their supporters and on the doorstep.

    It's all very amusing. ;^)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Just incase anyone was feeling good about the figures...

    0957: Stephanie Flanders Economics editor tweets: Figures are good news but also show how far UK is from re-balancing. It was the services sector that won it. Manufacturing and exports feeble.

    Wrong leaves on the line time for the left ..
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    According to the BBC crime is down 8%. Maybe we should have cut the Police more - it's clearly working:)
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Very interesting to see that a PB leftie doesn't believe his own rhetoric and cashed in on the excellent performance of our government!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    scampi said:

    According to the BBC crime is down 8%. Maybe we should have cut the Police more - it's clearly working:)

    The Plod are on a very sticky wicket - crime is falling like a stone across the West - the notion that its all related to lead in petrol seems far fetched to me but there is something very wide going on that's unrelated to national issues. I remain intrigued.

    Whatever the cause - we don't need as many police given that crime is falling across the board bar pick-pocketing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    JonC said:

    Plato said:

    @JonC

    "exports are dire"

    They're up 0.6%.

    Belgium exports more to China than we do.
    Belgian exports are massively distorted by the Antwerp diamond trade.

    See this Fact Check on Belgium-India trade:

    http://fullfact.org/factchecks/does_belgium_trade_more_with_india_than_the_uk_does-28785

    Then of course the Airbus jets with British wings (±half the fuselage value) and British engines (±half the aircraft value) count as a British export to France when they go to Toulouse for final assembly - and a French export to China when they go to China....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2013
    More gritted teeth as well as Stephanie's:
    Hugh Pym: triple dip averted according to these GDP figures - 0.3% growth - though could be revised when new data comes in.
    Paul Mason: The GDP tell us that if we fix construction we could be having an actual recovery.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Nick Clegg said:

    The Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, has just announced that the Communications Data Bill will not appear in the Queen’s speech and that he is blocking the Bill. He said on LBC : “What people dub the snoopers’ charter, that’s not going to happen – certainly with Lib Dems in government.”

    Not that Clegg had much choice after the pounding he personally took from the lib dem conference on the 'secret courts' fiasco. Also a very good indication of just how little is going to go through parliament now unless the lib dems are completely happy with it.

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    @Tim
    How's it doing in areas of mass immigration, up?

    Dunno wtf has that got to do with the price of bread? You mean you aren't pleased with good news on crime figures?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So unless growth is from hoary handed men in the midlands drilling out more castings for truck engine parts it's not "propah growth".

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Just incase anyone was feeling good about the figures...

    0957: Stephanie Flanders Economics editor tweets: Figures are good news but also show how far UK is from re-balancing. It was the services sector that won it. Manufacturing and exports feeble.

    Wrong leaves on the line time for the left ..

    Growth is based on services and increased govt spending, and further growth is predicated on house price inflation.


    The index of production was up 0.2% (same as business services and finance), it was just construction (and agriculture) down.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Anorak said:

    More gritted teeth as well as Stephanie's:

    Hugh Pym: triple dip averted according to these GDP figures - 0.3% growth - though could be revised when new data comes in.
    Paul Mason: The GDP tell us that if we fix construction we could be having an actual recovery.
    Every sunny day has a cloud of anticipation... the ONS on average only downgrade figs by 0.1% according to their blurb today.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Blue_rog

    If you believe it.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    How funny

    Brian Strutton GMB ‏@BrianStrutton 4m
    @paulwaugh ONS data shows last quarter 0.5% growth in 'government services' . Public sector prevents the triple dip !

    Very funny tim except:

    1) it wasn't a 0.5% growth in government services
    2) it didn't make the difference between a triple dip or not

    Once again you retweet without checking, an increasing bad habit of yours
    Are you still insisting that the £2,000 NI reduction for business in the budget isn't worth £2,000? Arf.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Grandiose said:

    PARIS: The Bank of France forecast on Tuesday [two weeks ago] that the French economy posted growth of 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year, unchanged from its previous estimate.
    BERLIN: Economists polled by Reuters expect it to grow by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, thereby avoiding recession.
    MADRID: Spain's recession continued in the first three months of the year, with the economy shrinking by 0.5% its seventh quarterly contraction, the Bank of Spain said Tuesday.

    Struggling to find Dublin.

    That figure for Germany looks optimistic Grandiose. The Federal Government are due to uprate their forecast growth for the year from 0.4% to 0.5% today, but they have stated they believe their figures to lag those of the independent German economic institutes. The forecasts of the institutes are pessimistic for Q1 growth with a significant minority even estimating no growth in Q1,

    The French figure also looks a touch optimistic too given leading indicators.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited April 2013
    TGOHF said:

    So unless growth is from hoary handed men in the midlands drilling out more castings for truck engine parts it's not "propah growth".


    Poor tim thinks that manufacturing and construction were booming under Labour. Between the start of 2000 to the end of 2009 manufacturing/production fell by about 16% and construction by 1%.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,751
    Mick_Pork said:

    TOPPING said:


    Thing is Pork, no offence, but you are no rhetorician. Your constant whine about fops this, PB Tories that is welcome colour on the site but, of course, asinine..

    Thing is Topping, no offence, but all you have done is highlight something that those who aren't PB tories spotted long before you did.

    As a second hand poster with zero original insight you are indeed best suited to whining about those posters on here who aren't PB tories and should stick to that 'crucial' task. Sadly for you there is no shortage of inept tory spinners doing that with even more dedication to petulant tantrums and incompetent spinning that even you are capable. But at least you will be another drone to keep them company.
    If I were you Pork (pauses...slightly sick feeling...regains composure...) I would ponder on the nuances of the discussion.

    You were certainly pointing out the image problem but then it had and has a tendency to come across as standard lefty bile rather than acute insight.

    I find it more interesting to look at this recent appointment to try to determine what the strategy is behind it because to me it seems like a quadruple bluff or I am missing something. A bit like EdM's interaction with the Unions. And I'm happy to have a nuanced discussion about it (there's that word again). Even with a lefty.

    Anyway - I realise that we aren't MFEO on this site so I bid you well on your journey.



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