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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A majority LAB government no longer the preferred GE2015 outcome

Today’s YouGov poll sees an MOE change with LAB is increasing its lead over the Tories by 1%.Nothing much there except that once again EdM’s party is in single figures.

Read the full story here

TGOHF

IcaRed falls to earth - flew too far away from the Sun reader.

CarlottaVance

Curious lower enthusiasm for Maj Lab govt amang Lab VI than for Con among Con.

Cool graphic!

CarlottaVance

Unite Political Fund Ballot for 2013:

http://www.learnwithunite.org/pluginfile.php/94/mod_forum/attachment/4184/Political fund ballot.ppt

TOPPING

FPT

There's no reason why anyone would be able to guess it but I am pretty much as far right a Cons supporter as it is possible to be (Cons < me < UKIP).

But what the chuffing hell are they up to appointing another Etonian (and Oxford...and...) to a high-profile position of power? Is this Lynton's work? Does BoJo have compromising pictures of Dave with Carole Thatcher?

Please someone explain to me.

Neil

@Carlotta

If anyone wants to bet on it I'll entertain anyone wanting to be on a 'no' result

CarlottaVance

TOPPING said:

Please someone explain to me.

Brogan's take:

Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.

Plato

Re A&E figs and pressures - these are pretty striking numbers. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10016521/GPs-blamed-for-crisis-in-out-of-hours-health-care.html

When the contract was initially renegotiated in 2004, GPs had their salaries reduced by £6,000 if they stopped providing care out of hours. However, other changes to the contract meant that average pay rose by a third, with many GPs earning six-figure salaries.

Following the changes, 90 per cent of family doctors stopped providing emergency cover, leaving patients to rely on phone services, agency doctors or hospital visits. In 2004/05, 17.7 million people used England’s A&E departments. By last year, that had risen to 21.7 million.

In opposition, the Conservatives pledged to renegotiate the contracts. However, attempts to change them have proved difficult, and the Government is scrutinising other ways of improving the out-of-hours service. The official review on the issue is expected to report at the end of the May.

Senior Government figures hope that highlighting the failures will add to the pressure for change...

TOPPING

CarlottaVance said:

TOPPING said:

Please someone explain to me.

Brogan's take:

Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.

And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.

RichardNabavi

At what time do we get the preliminary guess from the ONS, based on 40% of the data, of whether the economy expanded in Q1 by one part in a thousand or contracted by one part in a thousand, with error bars of ten parts in a thousand?

MikeSmithson

Thanks Carlotta. I've been playing about with the visual presentation of party splits and this one seems to work.

CarlottaVance said:

Cool graphic!

Plato

RichardNabavi said:

At what time do we get the preliminary guess from the ONS, based on 40% of the data, of whether the economy expanded in Q1 by one part in a thousand or contracted by one part in a thousand, with error bars of ten parts in a thousand?

0930 - and it'll get a single mention on R5 as surprising or all month on a TRIPLE DIP even if its 0.1%...

Plato

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

TOPPING said:

Please someone explain to me.

Brogan's take:

Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.

And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.

What's wrong with being hardworking and smart enough to get into Eton? or Oxford? The Johnsons IIRC re Boris got a scholarship. There are no waiting lists for either and are dependent on merit.

I hate class war - its going back to the 70s in a very negative way. The only acceptable form of prejudice now is class - and its wrong.

JosiasJessop

Ouch. Spanish unemployment reaches 27.2%.

It rather puts our own troubles in perspective.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22290422

Mick_Pork

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

TOPPING said:

Please someone explain to me.

Brogan's take:

Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.

And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.

You seem amusingly confused considering it was myself who first highlighted that fop chumocracy story on here that seemingly disgusts you so much.

No matter. The idea that the PB tories are an asset to their party is even funnier. ;^)

Morris_Dancer

Is it me, or is this bloody silly (again)?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22280078

A separate Scottish coronation if the Scots separate. But then, the argument will go, why not a separate Canadian coronation? Or Jamaican? Or Fijiian [the monarch is paramount chief of Fiji]?

Edited extra bit: rare moment as I think Sturgeon's speaking sense on this:
"Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who also speaks for the Scottish government on the constitution, said: "I don't think that is necessary, if you take the Queen just now she is head of state of many different Commonwealth countries, there doesn't require to be separate coronations in each of these. "

TOPPING

Mick_Pork said:

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

TOPPING said:

Please someone explain to me.

Brogan's take:

Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.

And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.

You seem amusingly confused considering it was myself who first highlighted that fop chumocracy story on here that seemingly disgusts you so much.

No matter. The idea that the PB tories are an asset to their party is even funnier. ;^)

QED

TOPPING

Plato said:

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

TOPPING said:

Please someone explain to me.

Brogan's take:

Jo J has impressed his colleagues by being thoughtful, bright, smart. He's one of a handful tipped for great things by other peers, and some talk of him as a better leadership bet than his brother. His friends are working on improving his people skills. The question for Dave, though, is one of practical politics: he may be good, but he's new and untested. He's investing a lot of hope and responsibility in Johnson J, for an uncertain return. Given the need to improve the No 10 operation, and give it some edge, it's worth a try.

And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

If it wasn't for the likes of Carl and Pork on here who provide consant encouragement to remain a Tory I'm sure I'd give up.

What's wrong with being hardworking and smart enough to get into Eton? or Oxford? The Johnsons IIRC re Boris got a scholarship. There are no waiting lists for either and are dependent on merit.

I hate class war - its going back to the 70s in a very negative way. The only acceptable form of prejudice now is class - and its wrong.

Of course it's wrong of course it's fantastic that bright people get on and of course they should get on.

But this is politics.

The Cons have an image problem whether we like it or not. People perceive them to be out of touch and an elite (notwithstanding that 90% of people who took that new class test ended up as being elite).

So they appoint an Etonian to a high-profile position of power.

If nothing else it is just bad politics.

dr_spyn

Jo Johnson - First in Modern History, MBA Insead, fluent in French but an Etonian, ex banker and Bullingdon Club - has talent.

Whilst the anti-Thatcher rants of John O'Farrell are a mere outbreaks of immature rage of a lefty luvvie.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Topping, I'd sooner the Conservatives opposed class war than appeased it.

Mick_Pork

TOPPING said:

And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

Even small children can understand that having a site full of tories who deny that obvious image problem is counterproductive yet you save your ire for those who spotted it long before you did.

Keep up the good work.

dr_spyn

What will Jo Johnson do if Boris ran against Dave, would he do an Ed Miliband and knife his brother or walk away from Cameron?

TGOHF

They should employ a street urchin in a shell suit to do the job.

Preferably effnik and perhaps homosexual.

Office nickname could be Token.

AveryLP

Good morning. Just a reminder

Scoring Guide to the UK Masters

+0.6% up         Hole in One, Drinks all round
+0.4% to +0.5%   Eagle
+0.2% to +0.3%   Birdie
--------------------------------------
+0.1% to -0.1%   Par
--------------------------------------
-0.2% to -0.3%   Bogey
-0.3% to -0.5%   Double Bogey
-0.6% down       George loses PGA card

dr_spyn

Johnson like you and me, can't choose his parents. He has had a hugely expensive education, beyond the reach of most individuals, but hasn't wasted his opportunities.

Eton, Oxford, higher degree at Insead - not places where a fool can thrive for too long and not be found out.

If only there was a budding chemist from Grantham being remade instead.

TGOHF

-0.1% would not be a par ALP - not even at the stroke index 1 hole that Gordon left behind.

Needs to be 0.00000% or higher.

TGOHF

Perhaps all chav shortlists for government jobs ?

I'm sure the cry would be "what no travellers in no 10 ?"

TGOHF

Poll tax was simply following the licence fee model tim - why no complaints for that to be changed away from a flat fee ?

CarlottaVance

Jo Jo on aid to India:

Britain needs a new 'special relationship' with India. We should start by ending overseas aid.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/6157763/cameron-wants-a-new-special-relationship-but-does-india/

Mick_Pork

tim said:

@mickPork

I think we'll enjoy the PB Tories trying to argue that Osborne, Letwin, Johnson et al have been promoted on their merits

And of course Tanni Grey-Thompson was turned down by this tiny circle logically

Osbrowne ruling out the disability campaigner Tammi Grey for no good reason is pure nasty party stuff.

The interesting thing about Jo Johnson (apart from confirming the chumocracy) is that his policy work would almost certainly be financial considering his interests like previously working as an investment banker at Deutsche Bank. Those who think Osbrowne is about to give up all his master strategising power to this newcomer are as gullible as those who thought the flounce that wasn't was a triumph or that Cammie's Cast Iron referendum pledge is anything other than flimsy desperate posturing.

hucks67

Could a triple dip chancellor survive in the job ? If the ONS announces a significant negative figure (more than -0.2%), then I think it will be difficult for Cameron to allow Osborne to continue. I am sensing a mutiny on the Tory backbenches.

TGOHF

tim said:

@TGOHF

You seem to be under the impression that I'm somehow against Cameron stuffing his govt with the incompetent male products of one school/drinking club

I'm sure you'd be offended/outraged at whoever he appointed. Which kind of devalues your input.

john_zims

Balls Oxford,no more boom or bust,no structural deficit, just economic crash.

TOPPING

Mick_Pork said:

TOPPING said:

And quite frankly I couldn't give a tinker's cuss how bright or smart (or young or thingy) he is.

He is an etonian PPE-er when surely even small children in Henley can understand that the Cons have an image problem in that most people associate them with privelege, eton, you know that kind of thing.

Even small children can understand that having a site full of tories who deny that obvious image problem is counterproductive yet you save your ire for those who spotted it long before you did.

Keep up the good work.

Thing is Pork, no offence, but you are no rhetorician. Your constant whine about fops this, PB Tories that is welcome colour on the site but, of course, asinine.

The site works best when people engage each other with vigour, imagination and thrust. You are unable to do this so your admittedly trivial points get lost.

JosiasJessop

An interesting article on innovation in industry.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22291280

Britain has traditionally been brilliant at research. We are fairly crummy at development of the resultant ideas, with some exceptions.

Plato

OT - I think it was DaveB who suggested Southland - I've tried it again and after most of S1 - I can't bear another episode, even if a bit tiddly - its just too shouty and macho...

I'm trying Continuum and that's proving rather hard work as well - I'm now watching Grimm again for the 3rd time, its pacey, fun, dramatic and clever. Let's hope it gets renewed. We've 4 episodes to go in S2.

TGOHF

tim said:

@TGOHF

I'm not outraged or offended that Cameron draws from one tiny sliver of society, it's what I expect him to do, it's what he is.

So run of the mill stuff requires 30 posts ? Strange logic.

Poor chap hasn't even started and you are abusing him because of your prejudices - more shame on you than Cameron.

AveryLP

TGOHF said:

-0.1% would not be a par ALP - not even at the stroke index 1 hole that Gordon left behind.

Needs to be 0.00000% or higher.

+/- 0.1 represemts the consensus of economic forecasters.

Bearing in mind that Spanish GDP is forecast to fall by -0.5% in Q1 2013; Germany is forecast to only grow over the whole of 2013 by 0.4%; Italy's economy hasn't grown for ten years; and France contracted in 2012 and is (optimistically) forecasting growth of 0.1% in Q1 2013, then I think the range of +/- 0.1% is a fair par.

Financier

BBC Live Text

09:16: Mick in Leeds emails:

I heard a company director on 5 Live this morning talking about his business. He hit the nail on the head. He said these figures have no impact on the strategy of his business and are completely meaningless as they are not based on all the information that affects GDP. Too true. Something for the press to get their knickers in a twist over.

Plato

Wow

Declan Lyons @DeclanLyons
23% in Spain didn't trust the EU in 2007, up to 72% by November 2012:

https://twitter.com/DeclanLyons/status/327338265864716288/photo/1

AveryLP

BIRDIE

BOY GENIUS!

TGOHF

6 inch tap in for birdie

Slackbladder

BOOM!!!! 0.3 positive....

Osborne you wonder!!!

TGOHF

Any other revisions ?

Plato

Poor old BBC - its up 0.3%

*rewriting of daily woe scripts in progress*

"This is surprising... but sector XYZ is suffering so let's talk about that for the next 48hrs..."

Roger

"Eton, Oxford, higher degree at Insead - not places where a fool can thrive for too long and not be found out."

The school of hard knocks! I couldn't agree with you less.

.03% sounds poor to average

Mick_Pork

TOPPING said:

Thing is Pork, no offence, but you are no rhetorician. Your constant whine about fops this, PB Tories that is welcome colour on the site but, of course, asinine..

Thing is Topping, no offence, but all you have done is highlight something that those who aren't PB tories spotted long before you did.

As a second hand poster with zero original insight you are indeed best suited to whining about those posters on here who aren't PB tories and should stick to that 'crucial' task. Sadly for you there is no shortage of inept tory spinners doing that with even more dedication to petulant tantrums and incompetent spinning that even you are capable. But at least you will be another drone to keep them company.

Slackbladder

tim set to go into mass 'oh look a squirrel' posting spam...

Grandiose

"UK economy expanded 0.3% in first quarter of 2013, says the ONS."

Relief on the government benches.

Blue_rog

Grandiose said:

"UK economy expanded 0.3% in first quarter of 2013, says the ONS."

Relief on the government benches.

Interestingly, and looking at previous adjustments, the 'real' figure could be even higher

CarlottaVance

Mick_Pork said:

tim said:

@mickPork

I think we'll enjoy the PB Tories trying to argue that Osborne, Letwin, Johnson et al have been promoted on their merits

And of course Tanni Grey-Thompson was turned down by this tiny circle logically

Osbrowne ruling out the disability campaigner Tammi Grey for no good reason is pure nasty party stuff.

SmearLink?

TGOHF

Took Labour 10 years to get no growth tim, George has done it in 2...

Plato

JosiasJessop said:

An interesting article on innovation in industry.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22291280

Britain has traditionally been brilliant at research. We are fairly crummy at development of the resultant ideas, with some exceptions.

I worked in the BT Innovation Unit for a while and with the likes of Clay Christiansen - the trick is to fail early and often if you want to find winners that actually work both technically and have a real market.

If you haven't read his stuff - he's very good.

AveryLP

tim said:

+0.3

Flatline 6 months

A staggeringly good performance compared to the UK's main EU competitors, which when matched with the rapid underlying deficit reduction experienced over Q1 2013 (see this week's Public Finances Bulletin), means that we will now see large revisions to the medium term forecasts of deficit reduction. The new forecasts will certainly not show the same flat-lining in deficit reduction to 2015 shown in OBR's March EFO.

Remember tim that last month the OBR forecast total growth this year for the UK of 0.6%, with most backloaded to the last two quarters (OBR forecast only 0.1% for Q1). Already half the year's forecast growth has been achieved in Q1.

JonC

Given the news from the Eurozone which is pretty much all dire, this number is actually fairly decent.

Sadly the main thing that makes sense to explain it is continued strength of government spending, since our exports are dire and consumption pretty flat on the back of personal debt.

Let's hope Osborne has learnt his lesson and doesn't go all triumphalist, no drivel about the "march of the makers" or "putting fuel in the tank of the economy" blah blah

long way to go before we're back to steady growth - still years IMHO.

Slackbladder

The bitterness of the lefties grumbling is very very amusing...

Plato

Annualised GDP +1.2% better than France, Germany, Spain , Italy...

Grandiose

Blue_rog said:

Grandiose said:

"UK economy expanded 0.3% in first quarter of 2013, says the ONS."

Relief on the government benches.

Interestingly, and looking at previous adjustments, the 'real' figure could be even higher

Maybe. At 0.3% it is unlikely it will be revised into negative territory.

Outperforming expectations is probably a sign that March was strong (since we had a pretty good idea of Jan + Feb coming into today) but construction and manufactoring still poor, which @tim is right to point out is a worry. The export stats should be able to show whether we're exporting more to the non-Eurozone, which would be a rebalancing in itself. IIRC there has been a small but noticable increase in that percentage in recent quarters.

BenM

On a scale of 1-10 for good news - the 0.3% in Q1 rates perhaps a low 6.

It is growth we badly need, but only in the services sector, so no rebalancing.

Still, I'd say politically the chancellor has had a much better week after last week's disaster.

Economically we are no better off, but perhaps we've now hit the floor?

Mick_Pork

Using the interactive chart above you can see how each set of party supporters responded and one that stands out for me is the Ukip split with 40% saying they’d prefer a CON majority.

That still, however, leaves 60% not saying that.

The LD split is, as you’d expect more in favour of coalition with a deal with LAB preferred over one with CON by 45% to 36%.

'oh look a squirrel' Mr Smithson 'oh look a squirrel'

When the 'oh look a squirrel' May Local Election 'oh look a squirrel' results come in 'oh look a squirrel' the PB Tories 'oh look a squirrel' had better find 'oh look a squirrel' some far more 'oh look a squirrel' convincing excuses and spin.

LOL

;^)

[Deleted User]

Oh dear - lefties not celebrating good growth news ? Anyone would think they'd have preferred a negative figure:)

Plato

@JonC

"exports are dire"

They're up 0.6%.

Pulpstar

Roger said:

"Eton, Oxford, higher degree at Insead - not places where a fool can thrive for too long and not be found out."

The school of hard knocks! I couldn't agree with you less.

.03% sounds poor to average

It is ten times as good as that.

TCPoliticalBetting

Off topic but from a previous thread.

Is this how you get through your dog's door Plato?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2314257/Sara-Elizabeth-Soto-Naked-woman-crawls-doggie-door-bath.html

Mick_Pork

Steve Rose ‏@steveplrose

Thompson gets dumped from a panel show with George Osborne, now David Cameron blocks her from taking a job. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/10011572/Tanni-Grey-Thompson-was-offered-Sport-England-role-but-appointment-was-vetoed-by-Number-10.html?fb …

The odious chumocracy in all it's nasty party 'glory'.

[Deleted User]

Encouraging to see BenM taking a non-partisan line.

john_zims

@Tim

No need to worry, Browns record of zero growth over 5 years is safe.

Mick_Pork

RichardNabavi said:

At what time do we get the preliminary guess from the ONS, based on 40% of the data, of whether the economy expanded in Q1 by one part in a thousand or contracted by one part in a thousand, with error bars of ten parts in a thousand?

We've just had it. Unfortunate that some of the PB tories PR spinners agreed with your assessment of it's importance, isn't it? ;^)

TGOHF

Can't find any revisions on the ONS site for previous quarters ?

Grandiose

PARIS: The Bank of France forecast on Tuesday [two weeks ago] that the French economy posted growth of 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year, unchanged from its previous estimate.
BERLIN: Economists polled by Reuters expect it to grow by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, thereby avoiding recession.
MADRID: Spain's recession continued in the first three months of the year, with the economy shrinking by 0.5% its seventh quarterly contraction, the Bank of Spain said Tuesday.

Struggling to find Dublin.

AveryLP

Output of North Sea Oil and Gas has been a critical determinant of growth over the past few quarters.

It is therefore interesting to note the changes in forecasts of investment in the sector made by the OBR between 2010 and 2013 (March EFO).

Forecast Investment in UK Oil and Gas Production
(All figures £ billion)  Outturn|Forecast
June 2010 Forecast                       
                  2009|2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Capital exp.       7.5| 8.2  8.3  7.8  5.5  7.5  7.4 
Exploration        0.5| 0.5  0.5  0.5  0.9  0.5  0.5 
Operating exp.     7.3| 6.6  6.3  6.2  7.7  6.0  5.8 

Mar 2013 EFO                2011 2012|2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Capital exp.                 9.4 12.3|15.4 14.6 14.1 12.2 11.2
 Decommiss.                  0.5  0.7| 1.1  1.0  1.4  1.4  1.3
Exploration                  1.4  1.7| 1.6  1.7  1.7  1.7  1.8
Operating exp.               7.2  7.8| 9.0  9.2  9.3  9.5  9.7

What is clear from these figures is that the Coalition has worked very hard with the oil companies to increase investment in the North Sea. The benefits of the additional investment are not due to be reflected in increased output until late 2013 and 2014, so this underpins the general forecasts of stronger growth in 2014-15 seen in recent forecasts.

Mick_Pork

The kippers seem ever more confident. Wonder what their campaigning on the ground is telling them?

UKIP ‏@UKIP 12m

"We have more candidates in the county council elections than the LibDems, a party whose heartbeat is local gov." http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nigel-farage-ukip-is-bringing-the-local-people-back-to-politics-8586192.html …

Bob_Sykes

We know Ed Balls cries at the Antiques Roadshow. Do we suppose he's having a blub at these disappointing (for him) better than most expectations growth figures and the absence of a triple dip?

Anorak

Still at the top the GDP LIVE!!!!! page at the BBC, these are three of the four "key points":

1) If the economy shrank between January and March, the UK will be back in recession for the third time since 2008
2) This is known as a triple-dip recession, which has not happened in the UK since records began in the 1950s
3) The UK economy is still smaller than it was before the onset of the financial crisis five years ago

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22288585
And live coverage of the GDP figures?! WTF? Lot of gutted people and gritted teeth in the newsroom right now. Arf.

Plato

I note that the Lefties Look Squirrel!!! subject is Jo Johnson's parents' choice of school...

Really - voters don't care as polling has shown. Only those who are Class Warriors and wouldn't vote Tory in a million years are bothered.

john_zims

@scampi

'Oh dear - lefties not celebrating good growth news ? Anyone would think they'd have preferred a negative figure:)

Their day has been wrecked,whining for the rest of the day.

Pulpstar

AveryLP said:

Output of North Sea Oil and Gas has been a critical determinant of growth over the past few quarters.

It is therefore interesting to note the changes in forecasts of investment in the sector made by the OBR between 2010 and 2013 (March EFO).

Forecast Investment in UK Oil and Gas Production
(All figures £ billion)  Outturn|Forecast
June 2010 Forecast                       
                  2009|2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Capital exp.       7.5| 8.2  8.3  7.8  5.5  7.5  7.4 
Exploration        0.5| 0.5  0.5  0.5  0.9  0.5  0.5 
Operating exp.     7.3| 6.6  6.3  6.2  7.7  6.0  5.8 

Mar 2013 EFO                2011 2012|2013 2014 2015 2016 2017                 
Capital exp.                 9.4 12.3|15.4 14.6 14.1 12.2 11.2 
 Decommiss.                  0.5  0.7| 1.1  1.0  1.4  1.4  1.3    
Exploration                  1.4  1.7| 1.6  1.7  1.7  1.7  1.8      
Operating exp.               7.2  7.8| 9.0  9.2  9.3  9.5  9.7

What is clear from these figures is that the Coalition has worked very hard with the oil companies to increase investment in the North Sea. The benefits of the additional investment are not due to be reflected in increased output until late 2013 and 2014, so this underpins the general forecasts of stronger growth in 2014-15 seen in recent forecasts.

Does this keep pump prices and/or fuel bills relatively benign ? That could be a big factor politically going into the next GE. Sub £1.40 is excellent for the coalition, £1.45 is probably par, £1.50+ and people are going to feel poor and is bad news in my book.

JonC

Plato said:

@JonC

"exports are dire"

They're up 0.6%.

The countries we should be exporting to have much bigger growth than that.

We export more to Ireland than we do to China.
Belgium exports more to China than we do.

Sorry but that is a dire situation. And our balance of payments is awful, something like the 3rd or 4th worst since the war.

TGOHF

French unemployment figures out later - will show how the rEd/Hollande approach is faring.

Anorak

Anorak said:

Lot of gutted people and gritted teeth in the newsroom right now. Arf.

And, of course, on PB. Double arf.

Cyclefree

@Tim: if the reports from Clegg that the Snooping Bill is going to be dropped, come to pass, that's good news.

Grandiose

tim said:

How funny

Brian Strutton GMB ‏@BrianStrutton 4m
@paulwaugh ONS data shows last quarter 0.5% growth in 'government services' . Public sector prevents the triple dip !

As the ONS tables show, they weight government services at 23.3% of output, meaning the 0.5% rise was worth about 0.12 percentage points of growth, not nearly enough to bring us up to the 0.3% recorded.

Plato

@Anorak

It hasn't been mentioned at all on R5 after the ONS at 0930 - and was described as *dodged a triple dip*.

It's all very amusing.

GIN1138

0.3% growth is pretty good given that horrendously cold March, Presumably with a "normal" spring-like March we'd have been looking at 0.5%?

Mick_Pork

Well, well, well.

What do we have here?

Stephen Tall ‏@stephentall 12m

.@JulianHuppert celebrates Nick Clegg's decision to kill Snoopers’ Charter http://bit.ly/15IVWJj ("Rejoice! Just rejoice at that news!")

Poor old incompetent fops. Stymied by the lib dems from their authoritarian stupidity.

The lib dems are going to make a huge deal of this with their supporters and on the doorstep.

It's all very amusing. ;^)

TGOHF

Just incase anyone was feeling good about the figures...

0957: Stephanie Flanders Economics editor tweets: Figures are good news but also show how far UK is from re-balancing. It was the services sector that won it. Manufacturing and exports feeble.

Wrong leaves on the line time for the left ..

[Deleted User]

According to the BBC crime is down 8%. Maybe we should have cut the Police more - it's clearly working:)

Blue_rog

Very interesting to see that a PB leftie doesn't believe his own rhetoric and cashed in on the excellent performance of our government!

Plato

scampi said:

According to the BBC crime is down 8%. Maybe we should have cut the Police more - it's clearly working:)

The Plod are on a very sticky wicket - crime is falling like a stone across the West - the notion that its all related to lead in petrol seems far fetched to me but there is something very wide going on that's unrelated to national issues. I remain intrigued.

Whatever the cause - we don't need as many police given that crime is falling across the board bar pick-pocketing.

CarlottaVance

JonC said:

Plato said:

@JonC

"exports are dire"

They're up 0.6%.

Belgium exports more to China than we do.

Belgian exports are massively distorted by the Antwerp diamond trade.

See this Fact Check on Belgium-India trade:

http://fullfact.org/factchecks/does_belgium_trade_more_with_india_than_the_uk_does-28785

Then of course the Airbus jets with British wings (±half the fuselage value) and British engines (±half the aircraft value) count as a British export to France when they go to Toulouse for final assembly - and a French export to China when they go to China....

Anorak

More gritted teeth as well as Stephanie's:

Hugh Pym: triple dip averted according to these GDP figures - 0.3% growth - though could be revised when new data comes in.
Paul Mason: The GDP tell us that if we fix construction we could be having an actual recovery.

Mick_Pork

Nick Clegg said:

The Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, has just announced that the Communications Data Bill will not appear in the Queen’s speech and that he is blocking the Bill. He said on LBC : “What people dub the snoopers’ charter, that’s not going to happen – certainly with Lib Dems in government.”

Not that Clegg had much choice after the pounding he personally took from the lib dem conference on the 'secret courts' fiasco. Also a very good indication of just how little is going to go through parliament now unless the lib dems are completely happy with it.

[Deleted User]

@Tim
How's it doing in areas of mass immigration, up?

Dunno wtf has that got to do with the price of bread? You mean you aren't pleased with good news on crime figures?

TGOHF

So unless growth is from hoary handed men in the midlands drilling out more castings for truck engine parts it's not "propah growth".

Grandiose

tim said:

TGOHF said:

Just incase anyone was feeling good about the figures...

0957: Stephanie Flanders Economics editor tweets: Figures are good news but also show how far UK is from re-balancing. It was the services sector that won it. Manufacturing and exports feeble.

Wrong leaves on the line time for the left ..

Growth is based on services and increased govt spending, and further growth is predicated on house price inflation.

The index of production was up 0.2% (same as business services and finance), it was just construction (and agriculture) down.

Plato

Anorak said:

More gritted teeth as well as Stephanie's:

Hugh Pym: triple dip averted according to these GDP figures - 0.3% growth - though could be revised when new data comes in.
Paul Mason: The GDP tell us that if we fix construction we could be having an actual recovery.

Every sunny day has a cloud of anticipation... the ONS on average only downgrade figs by 0.1% according to their blurb today.

john_zims

@Blue_rog

If you believe it.

Rexel56

tim said:

How funny

Brian Strutton GMB ‏@BrianStrutton 4m
@paulwaugh ONS data shows last quarter 0.5% growth in 'government services' . Public sector prevents the triple dip !

Very funny tim except:

1) it wasn't a 0.5% growth in government services
2) it didn't make the difference between a triple dip or not

Once again you retweet without checking, an increasing bad habit of yours
Are you still insisting that the £2,000 NI reduction for business in the budget isn't worth £2,000? Arf.

AveryLP

Grandiose said:

PARIS: The Bank of France forecast on Tuesday [two weeks ago] that the French economy posted growth of 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year, unchanged from its previous estimate.
BERLIN: Economists polled by Reuters expect it to grow by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, thereby avoiding recession.
MADRID: Spain's recession continued in the first three months of the year, with the economy shrinking by 0.5% its seventh quarterly contraction, the Bank of Spain said Tuesday.

Struggling to find Dublin.

That figure for Germany looks optimistic Grandiose. The Federal Government are due to uprate their forecast growth for the year from 0.4% to 0.5% today, but they have stated they believe their figures to lag those of the independent German economic institutes. The forecasts of the institutes are pessimistic for Q1 growth with a significant minority even estimating no growth in Q1,

The French figure also looks a touch optimistic too given leading indicators.

JonathanD

TGOHF said:

So unless growth is from hoary handed men in the midlands drilling out more castings for truck engine parts it's not "propah growth".

Poor tim thinks that manufacturing and construction were booming under Labour. Between the start of 2000 to the end of 2009 manufacturing/production fell by about 16% and construction by 1%.

TOPPING

Mick_Pork said:

TOPPING said:

Thing is Pork, no offence, but you are no rhetorician. Your constant whine about fops this, PB Tories that is welcome colour on the site but, of course, asinine..

Thing is Topping, no offence, but all you have done is highlight something that those who aren't PB tories spotted long before you did.

As a second hand poster with zero original insight you are indeed best suited to whining about those posters on here who aren't PB tories and should stick to that 'crucial' task. Sadly for you there is no shortage of inept tory spinners doing that with even more dedication to petulant tantrums and incompetent spinning that even you are capable. But at least you will be another drone to keep them company.

If I were you Pork (pauses...slightly sick feeling...regains composure...) I would ponder on the nuances of the discussion.

You were certainly pointing out the image problem but then it had and has a tendency to come across as standard lefty bile rather than acute insight.

I find it more interesting to look at this recent appointment to try to determine what the strategy is behind it because to me it seems like a quadruple bluff or I am missing something. A bit like EdM's interaction with the Unions. And I'm happy to have a nuanced discussion about it (there's that word again). Even with a lefty.

Anyway - I realise that we aren't MFEO on this site so I bid you well on your journey.