Just incase anyone was feeling good about the figures...
0957: Stephanie Flanders Economics editor tweets: Figures are good news but also show how far UK is from re-balancing. It was the services sector that won it. Manufacturing and exports feeble.
Wrong leaves on the line time for the left ..
Growth is based on services and increased govt spending, and further growth is predicated on house price inflation.
The index of production was up 0.2% (same as business services and finance), it was just construction (and agriculture) down.
I'm assuming agriculture has been badly affected by the weather this spring.
I hope I can claim with a straight face that if the GDP figure had been for a 0.3% decline that I would have accorded it with the same relative lack of importance that I do the +0.3% figure. The inaccuracy in the data means that all we can say is that growth is not significantly different to zero, which has been the case for two years now.
That said, I can't help feeling quite a bit more optimistic with a +0.3% figure than I would have been with -0.3%. One can hope that this will be the year when Osborne's luck starts to change and the economy exceeds expectations.
Thing is Pork, no offence, but you are no rhetorician. Your constant whine about fops this, PB Tories that is welcome colour on the site but, of course, asinine..
Thing is Topping, no offence, but all you have done is highlight something that those who aren't PB tories spotted long before you did.
As a second hand poster with zero original insight you are indeed best suited to whining about those posters on here who aren't PB tories and should stick to that 'crucial' task. Sadly for you there is no shortage of inept tory spinners doing that with even more dedication to petulant tantrums and incompetent spinning that even you are capable. But at least you will be another drone to keep them company.
If I were you Pork (pauses...slightly sick feeling...regains composure...) I would ponder on the nuances of the discussion.
You were certainly pointing out the image problem but then it had and has a tendency to come across as standard lefty bile rather than acute insight.
I find it more interesting to look at this recent appointment to try to determine what the strategy is behind it because to me it seems like a quadruple bluff or I am missing something. A bit like EdM's interaction with the Unions. And I'm happy to have a nuanced discussion about it (there's that word again). Even with a lefty.
Anyway - I realise that we aren't MFEO on this site so I bid you well on your journey.
A nuanced discussion with Pork?
A triumph of hope over experience, Sir Topping.
If you throw him some extra acorns, he is known to roll on his back and grunt the word "Lansley" in delirious satisfaction.
Mark Easton @BBCMarkEaston 2m Adult violent crime victims in 2012 in Eng/Wales the lowest since records began in 1981 - fewer than 2m. (In '95 it was 4.2m)
Looks like mass immigration finally nailed Thatchers legacy on crime
Do you have any evidence to support the link between immigration and falling crime levels?
Henry Samuel @H_E_Samuel France could beat all-time unemployment record of 3.195 million today, last met in 1997. Counting jobless who worked this month, makes 5mil
@Tim You mean you aren't pleased with good news on crime figures?
I've been pleased with the crime figures for a decade, back in the days before the 2010 election when the PB Tories didn't believe them and Cameron was milking child crime victims for his Broken Britain meme.
My name is Ed Conway and I would like to report a crime.
My headlines have been stolen by an Irish baronet fop.
Do you have any evidence to support the link between immigration and falling crime levels?
Given that educated people are less likely to commit crime and immigrants are much more educated than Brits then thats a factor, as it is in Londons massive school improvement. And of course much of the immigration from the A8 countries brought in people from low crime countries with a very low tendency to claim benefits.
Whatever the reasons mass immigration and the end of Thatchers crime legacy are two things to celebrate.
The absolute number of crimes has fallen, and in any case way beyond what it would be plausible to suggest was due to 1% of the population coming from A8 countries, particularly since Poland reports an almost identical number of per capita homicides as the United Kingdom.
Richard @richie_1994wale UK GDP in 2011 revised upwards. Originally estimated economy grew by 0.8% in that year, new estimate today says it grew by 1.1% #UKeconomy
Just incase anyone was feeling good about the figures...
0957: Stephanie Flanders Economics editor tweets: Figures are good news but also show how far UK is from re-balancing. It was the services sector that won it. Manufacturing and exports feeble.
Wrong leaves on the line time for the left ..
Growth is based on services and increased govt spending, and further growth is predicated on house price inflation.
The index of production was up 0.2% (same as business services and finance), it was just construction (and agriculture) down.
I'm assuming agriculture has been badly affected by the weather this spring.
I spoke to a farmer yesterday who had re-plowed his fields of oilseed rape as it had not germinated.
mind you farmers are famous for finding things to grumble over. Just look at tim.
Just incase anyone was feeling good about the figures...
0957: Stephanie Flanders Economics editor tweets: Figures are good news but also show how far UK is from re-balancing. It was the services sector that won it. Manufacturing and exports feeble.
Wrong leaves on the line time for the left ..
Growth is based on services and increased govt spending, and further growth is predicated on house price inflation.
The index of production was up 0.2% (same as business services and finance), it was just construction (and agriculture) down.
I'm assuming agriculture has been badly affected by the weather this spring.
I spoke to a farmer yesterday who had re-plowed his fields of oilseed rape as it had not germinated.
mind you farmes are famous for finding things to grumble over. Just look at tim.
HA! The fields round here haven't germinated either - horses/sheep/cattle are being fed on hay as the grass isn't growing either - its a mess. My daffodils haven't flowered and its May next week...and I'm in Sussex. You can't get more southerly than 6 miles from the Channel.
If I were you Pork (pauses...slightly sick feeling...regains composure...) I would ponder on the nuances of the discussion.
You were certainly pointing out the image problem but then it had and has a tendency to come across as standard lefty bile rather than acute insight.
I find it more interesting to look at this recent appointment to try to determine what the strategy is behind it because to me it seems like a quadruple bluff or I am missing something. A bit like EdM's interaction with the Unions. And I'm happy to have a nuanced discussion about it (there's that word again). Even with a lefty.
Anyway - I realise that we aren't MFEO on this site so I bid you well on your journey
Very little posted on here by most PB tories doesn't come across as standard right wing bile and right wing posters outnumber left wing posters on here quite considerably and always have. So you'll pardon me if I don't take that 'critique' very seriously.
The strategy, such as it is, is best seen in conjunction with another bit of news which was astutely highlighted last night by anotherDave. He's not a left wing poster so no need to panic.
I'm not sure if its just Mr Cameron desperately sucking up to Conservative MPs, or if they really are going to have some input into government policy making. I suspect the former.
He is quite correct. Another showdown between Cammie and his backbenchers is definitely brewing. Ironically the growth figures today may have given Osbrowne a little breathing room but in doing so it simply means that any May local election bloodbath will put the focus firmly on Cameron instead of Osborne. Not something he will relish as the Kippers park ever more tanks on the tory marginal lawns.
Whatever your views on Boris he is a very influential figure in the tory party so Cammie naturally wants to nullify him and keep him on side lest any more leadership speculation begin. Thus in the short term giving Boris's brother a position of power is a good way to keep Boris happy even if that position may be as token and as much desperate window dressing as the 'conservative parliamentary advisory board'.
In the longer term it may be a mistake because what Boris needs is someone close to number 10 and the chumocracy to keep him up to date on the latest comings and goings as he considers his options for 2015 and beyond.
For Cammie and Osbrowne short term 'fixes' always trump longer term strategy. Hence the Cast Iron EU Referendum promise with little thought given to what would happen if it unravels and now little thought also given to how this appointment looks.
Do you have any evidence to support the link between immigration and falling crime levels?
Given that educated people are less likely to commit crime and immigrants are much more educated than Brits then thats a factor, as it is in Londons massive school improvement. And of course much of the immigration from the A8 countries brought in people from low crime countries with a very low tendency to claim benefits.
Whatever the reasons mass immigration and the end of Thatchers crime legacy are two things to celebrate.
The absolute number of crimes has fallen, and in any case way beyond what it would be plausible to suggest was due to 1% of the population coming from A8 countries, particularly since Poland reports an almost identical number of per capita homicides as the United Kingdom.
Violent crime is dropping internationally; just more so in the UK, perhaps simply that we started with a higher level than most of Europe. The drop probably has little to do with any domestic policy or immigration.
The good news on the economy may produce an upward tick though, through increasing confidence in the night time economy.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress 1st law of Cameronism: whatever the crisis its resolution shall always entail at least one Etonian getting a promotion.
It is rather unfair on the minor public schools, tim.
Still the girls can always marry the Etonians.
Should get Dave a fillip in the gender approval ratings.
I seriously believe crime is falling due to smartphones/Facebook. Even kids nowadays have Facebook-connected phones and why get into gateway crimes like vandalism etc when you can instead post on someone's wall 24/7?
People are too sucked into the internet to be bothered to commit crimes.
Not a fan of Claire Perry but this pithy summary is spot on.
Claire Perry @claire4devizes So: growth up,deficit down, 1.25m new jobs, crime down, immigration down, NHS protected, schools+welfare reformed. After 3 years. Good.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress OMG Sunny Hundal has tweeted something really funny - shall RT it now to mark the auspicious occasion...
Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal Osborne's management of the UK economy is like that child so shit at sport, if he just about manages to kick the ball everyone claps #GDP
How offensively old fashioned and sexist that tweet is.. Surely in the modern world it should be "Osborne's management of the UK economy is like that child so shit at sport, if they just about manage to dance a step of gangnam style everyone claps"
Well done Clegg for killing the "snooper's charter". Should put a spring in the step of Lib Dem activists.
Assuming he really has. If it merely comes back in a rebranded form, (like control orders and T-Pims) and the lib dems realise this, then I fear Clegg will find himself in a far more trouble than he did even over the 'secret courts' fiasco.
I doubt even Clegg could get away with that so the lib dems are probably right to celebrate. And indeed everyone else who opposed this ludicrous authoritarian nonsense from the start.
If you throw him some extra acorns, he is known to roll on his back and grunt the word "Lansley" in delirious satisfaction.
Poor old Seth. After your inept Lansley spin failed so miserably you now consider his very name to be a sore point.
It is indeed gratifying that you have moved your spinning 'talent' over to Osbrowne. Though I fear it doesn't bode well for his future prospects as PM any more than it did for Lansley.
Does he think that the number of children dying violently falling by 40% is a cover-up of some sort?
On MMR, doesnt he just think that as a lot of parents were scared by the rumours of side effects, the government should have allowed a single jab as well, and the straight MMR or nothing choice made people take their chances with no immunisation? I dont think he was saying MMR caused anything, but could be wrong.
Anyway here is his account of why crime is "falling"....
So rEd's bad week got worse - not much point in a Labour government unless you are a rampant Europhile or on benefits and you want a nice inflation linked payrise.
A few months ago I was chatting to a supporter of David Miliband. “I think Ed might actually make it,” he said. “He’s useless, but he’s lucky.”
Today may well prove to be the day Ed Miliband’s luck ran out. Had the economy plunged back into a triple-dip recession, the developing narrative of a turning of the political tide would have come to a juddering halt. As it is, GDP growth of 0.3 per cent – at the top end of most economist’s expectations – guarantees that narrative additional momentum.
A few months ago I was chatting to a supporter of David Miliband. “I think Ed might actually make it,” he said. “He’s useless, but he’s lucky.”
Today may well prove to be the day Ed Miliband’s luck ran out. Had the economy plunged back into a triple-dip recession, the developing narrative of a turning of the political tide would have come to a juddering halt. As it is, GDP growth of 0.3 per cent – at the top end of most economist’s expectations – guarantees that narrative additional momentum.
Will he still give away £50 for Ed being next PM ? Might tweet him..
I can't work out whether he's incredibly astute in getting paid to play court jester to his gullible anti-Labour target audience, or whether he's genuinely a bit unhinged.
On topic, although I realise it is a very unlikely event, it is slightly unfair on UKIP voters in that there is no option to say you would prefer a UKIP presence in the next Government.
It might give the impression that they want someone else in charge.
So rEd's bad week got worse - not much point in a Labour government unless you are a rampant Europhile or on benefits and you want a nice inflation linked payrise.
It's been a bad week for EdM whichever way you look at it. He's been rubbished by Blairites and McCluskey, the GDP figs are good and there's been no serious hits to HMG - Qatada doesn't count as he's been here for donkeys and HMG appear thwarted by others.
That his polling is crap and the party lead has narrowed for whatever reason doesn't help with morale either.
I hope Tory activists are as full of zeal as Kippers on the doorstep...
Does he think that the number of children dying violently falling by 40% is a cover-up of some sort?
Large falls in almost every category of crime in the last decade, across both recorded and surveyed crime; supporting falls in drink and drug use shown by a wide array of methodologies. The Conservatives were wrong to suggest crime was rising under the last Labour government, although in my opinion government policy (to the extent it differs between parties) has made little difference.
Dan Hodges overstates his case. But Labour certainly need to do some hard thinking now about why they are suddenly running into unfavourable media headwinds.
The dropping of the Snooper's Bill is excellent. Let's hope they don't try and sneak it back in through some other route.
Wakefield should be thoroughly ashamed of what he did. He caused real harm.
I also hope that the man who was convicted of selling pretendy bomb detectors gets the maximum possible sentence.
0.3% growth in Q1 is better than nothing. The revision of the 2011 figures is interesting: 1.1%. What were the growth figures for 2010?
(In any case the elections next week will teach the Tories the perils of hubris, I suspect.)
My daffodils are now coming out; the scillas and muscari are also out and the yellow/blue combination is lovely. Also the apricot is beginning to blossom so - fingers crossed - it will fruit. But everything is very much later than normal. One year I had my roses (Mme Alfred Carriere) out on 23 April.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics 2m Odds of a Tory majority at next election cut from 5/1 to 4/1
Lab MAJ 11/10 NOM 6/4 Con MAJ 4/1 UKIP MAJ 100/1 LD MAJ 200/1
NOM looking attractive if Ed Miliband's path turns out not to be entirely strewn with roses. For the Tories to gain seats against their performance vs Brown while lefty Libs go Lab is a very big ask, and there's very little sign they can do it. But shifting all those first-time incumbents will be hard for Labour, too.
The dropping of the Snooper's Bill is excellent. Let's hope they don't try and sneak it back in through some other route.
Wakefield should be thoroughly ashamed of what he did. He caused real harm.
I also hope that the man who was convicted of selling pretendy bomb detectors gets the maximum possible sentence.
0.3% growth in Q1 is better than nothing. The revision of the 2011 figures is interesting: 1.1%. What were the growth figures for 2010?
(In any case the elections next week will teach the Tories the perils of hubris, I suspect.)
My daffodils are now coming out; the scillas and muscari are also out and the yellow/blue combination is lovely. Also the apricot is beginning to blossom so - fingers crossed - it will fruit. But everything is very much later than normal. One year I had my roses (Mme Alfred Carriere) out on 23 April.
And the sun is shining today....!
Clegg seems to be doing better all round and has timed it well for the May local elections.
Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg says his sons have had the MMR jab: "This was the right thing to do" http://itv.co/11RWPYR
Of course it won't nullify his dire approval ratings and like the Cameron the May local elections is still unlikely to be great news for him. Yet compared to his handling of the media around Rennard and the extremely near miss he had in Eastleigh he has improved vastly and seems to be winning the PR battle between the two coalition partners just when he needs to.
It's a good thing that Labour is getting some unfavourable press at the moment. The Party needs to be in training for the predictable bad press in the run up to the 2015 election. As for Lynton Crosby, he didn't do well with a previous Tory prime ministerial candidate.
Cameron is a coalition prime Minister not a Tory one. It's a long time since we've had an elected Tory PM.
Last night's You Gov may indicate that the Maggie love in is all but over with a rise in the Labour figure.
Some PBers will have noted that there is a bear market for gold bullion. Gold prices peaked at $1,921.15 an ounce in September 2011. Over the course of this year prices have fallen by 15% to $1,446.47 (12 April) and are forecast to end the year at around $1,390 [Goldman Sachs].
One person who might be welcoming this news is our former Chancellor Gordon Brown, but even so the price falls still can't eradicate the damage his sale of gold did to the UK economy,
The U.K. had the world’s second-biggest [gold] reserves in 1958 and now ranks 18th. Gordon Brown, the [UK's former] finance minister, sold about 400 tons in auctions from 1999 to 2002, getting no more than $296.50 and as little as $255.75. The nation raised almost $3.5 billion, which was invested in dollars, euros and yen. The gold is now valued at about $18.4 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Good old Gord. Now being used by economists as a. case study in how not to manage gold reserves
Sarah Wollaston doing a good job on the TV of slamming dodgy single vaccine clinics, irresponsible media reporting of MMR and ridiculous alternative therapies.
Sorry Im being argumentative, but maybe they shouldnt have to go to "dodgy clinics" and it should be available on the NHS
Sarah Wollaston doing a good job on the TV of slamming dodgy single vaccine clinics, irresponsible media reporting of MMR and ridiculous alternative therapies.
B-b-b-b-b-but she's a Tory! And you're agreeing with her!!!!!
*checks window for plague of locusts and/or rain of frogs*
Are the "media headwinds" that unfavourable for Labour at the moment?
The Blairite / Union to-and-fro is probably something that will crop up occasionally for some time yet, no matter who is Labour leader.
Aside from that, I've seen a few anti-Labour articles from predictably and reliably Tory sources like Ben Brogan, which is something Labour will not be able to avoid anyway.
Sarah Wollaston doing a good job on the TV of slamming dodgy single vaccine clinics, irresponsible media reporting of MMR and ridiculous alternative therapies.
Sorry Im being argumentative, but maybe they shouldnt have to go to "dodgy clinics" and it should be available on the NHS
Maybe they should spend the resources they have in the most efficient way possible, rather than pandering to idiots. See also: NHS homeopathy.
Just incase anyone was feeling good about the figures...
0957: Stephanie Flanders Economics editor tweets: Figures are good news but also show how far UK is from re-balancing. It was the services sector that won it. Manufacturing and exports feeble.
Wrong leaves on the line time for the left ..
Growth is based on services and increased govt spending, and further growth is predicated on house price inflation.
The index of production was up 0.2% (same as business services and finance), it was just construction (and agriculture) down.
I'm assuming agriculture has been badly affected by the weather this spring.
I spoke to a farmer yesterday who had re-plowed his fields of oilseed rape as it had not germinated.
mind you farmes are famous for finding things to grumble over. Just look at tim.
HA! The fields round here haven't germinated either - horses/sheep/cattle are being fed on hay as the grass isn't growing either - its a mess. My daffodils haven't flowered and its May next week...and I'm in Sussex. You can't get more southerly than 6 miles from the Channel.
The Central England Temperature (CET) for 2013 is currently 1.12C below the 1961-1990 average, nearly one-third of the way through the year. If it stays at this anomaly it will be the coldest year in the CET record since 1892. The coldest year of all was in 1740 and the warmest in 2006 - which also had the warmest July and September.
March was so cold this year that it was colder than February, defying the normal annual cycle in temperatures. This has happened surprisingly often in the 354 year long record: 64 times, or an average of twice every eleven years, by my reckoning. While it was only the joint 12th coldest March in the record, it was the coldest March since 1892 (that year again).
April is currently on course to also roughly match 1892 (7.2C vs 7.3C) so if we allow ourselves the fantasy that the temperatures will follow 1892's course for the rest of the year we can look forward to an unusually cold October - 1892's was the tenth coldest. A cold October would be unusual for another reason - it is the only month in the CET record where the warmest three years have all been in the 2000s.
Well. I hope Sunil finds that interesting, anyway.
As she pointed out single vaccines haven't been subject to the same research as MMR, they are less effective, they are more expensive and leave gaps in protection due to six separate jabs instead of two. Oh, and their isn't a single mumps vaccine available.
So why on earth should they be available on the NHS?
oh ok fair enough. Not something I ever really thought about.
I seriously believe crime is falling due to smartphones/Facebook. Even kids nowadays have Facebook-connected phones and why get into gateway crimes like vandalism etc when you can instead post on someone's wall 24/7?
People are too sucked into the internet to be bothered to commit crimes.
There was an entire article on the BBC t'other day, asking Why Crime Is Falling Across the Developed World, it's actually called The Riddle of Peacefulness.
The poor journalist can't think of a single reason why crime might be falling across the West. Not a sausage. He wonders vaguely if it is related to sunspots, or the work of little baby Jesus.
Repeat slowly after me.
Crime is committed by young people.
The. Western. World. Is. Ageing.
Heh fair point, well made.
Though ageing would explain why crime rates are falling, but not why absolute levels of crime are falling (if indeed they are?).
I seriously believe crime is falling due to smartphones/Facebook. Even kids nowadays have Facebook-connected phones and why get into gateway crimes like vandalism etc when you can instead post on someone's wall 24/7?
People are too sucked into the internet to be bothered to commit crimes.
There was an entire article on the BBC t'other day, asking Why Crime Is Falling Across the Developed World, it's actually called The Riddle of Peacefulness.
The poor journalist can't think of a single reason why crime might be falling across the West. Not a sausage. He wonders vaguely if it is related to sunspots, or the work of little baby Jesus.
Repeat slowly after me.
Crime is committed by young people.
The. Western. World. Is. Ageing.
I posted the England and Wales demography before, here it is again:
The only category of adults to be falling is 30-44. The age bands most associated with crime (15-30) have got bigger in percentage terms and therefore quite a lot larger in absolute terms. And yet crime has fallen substantially.
You'll need to come up with some variant in order to explain the falling crime rate.
Many thanks - I didn't really understand the correlation between grass growth and temp until a farmer friend of mine chatted about it a couple of years ago - it very tight and when it fails , it really hurts.
I seriously believe crime is falling due to smartphones/Facebook. Even kids nowadays have Facebook-connected phones and why get into gateway crimes like vandalism etc when you can instead post on someone's wall 24/7?
People are too sucked into the internet to be bothered to commit crimes.
There was an entire article on the BBC t'other day, asking Why Crime Is Falling Across the Developed World, it's actually called The Riddle of Peacefulness.
The poor journalist can't think of a single reason why crime might be falling across the West. Not a sausage. He wonders vaguely if it is related to sunspots, or the work of little baby Jesus.
Repeat slowly after me.
Crime is committed by young people.
The. Western. World. Is. Ageing.
Not the mention the relative appeals of easily accessible internet porn and Call of Duty versus hanging around a street corner, freezing your nuts off, waiting for someone to mug.
I can't bear Russell Brand - he's a self-absorbed narcissist who apes a Jesus look for extra effect.
I cant watch more than 10 secs of him unless he is being ripped by Hitchens. Never uses a short word when a long one will do, and about as funny as rabies in a guide dogs home.
Good old Gord. Now being used by economists as a. case study in how not to manage gold reserves
What economists would they be? Conventionally it's not considered the job of the government to speculate on the commodity markets. If they're holding assets they don't need they should assume the markets are pricing them efficiently and sell them.
That said, UK taxpayers continue to pay the price for Osborne's failure to buy Bitcoins at 0.5 cents immediately on taking office.
Then of course the Airbus jets with British wings (±half the fuselage value) and British engines (±half the aircraft value) count as a British export to France when they go to Toulouse for final assembly - and a French export to China when they go to China....
Thanks, learnt something today about diamonds!
I am not trying to talk us down, but looking to the future we need to be selling more to the emerging markets and need to be less reliant on Europe as our main market. Do you not agree? The EU is not going to be a powerhouse of growth any time soon let's face it.
(Sorry i can't work out how to selectively quote without c0cking up the HTML)
If I were you Pork (pauses...slightly sick feeling...regains composure...) I would ponder on the nuances of the discussion.
You were certainly pointing out the image problem but then it had and has a tendency to come across as standard lefty bile rather than acute insight.
I find it more interesting to look at this recent appointment to try to determine what the strategy is behind it because to me it seems like a quadruple bluff or I am missing something. A bit like EdM's interaction with the Unions. And I'm happy to have a nuanced discussion about it (there's that word again). Even with a lefty.
Anyway - I realise that we aren't MFEO on this site so I bid you well on your journey
Very little posted on here by most PB tories doesn't come across as standard right wing bile and right wing posters outnumber left wing posters on here quite considerably and always have. So you'll pardon me if I don't take that 'critique' very seriously.
The strategy, such as it is, is best seen in conjunction with another bit of news which was astutely highlighted last night by anotherDave. He's not a left wing poster so no need to panic.
I'm not sure if its just Mr Cameron desperately sucking up to Conservative MPs, or if they really are going to have some input into government policy making. I suspect the former.
He is quite correct. Another showdown between Cammie and his backbenchers is definitely brewing. Ironically the growth figures today may have given Osbrowne a little breathing room but in doing so it simply means that any May local election bloodbath will put the focus firmly on Cameron instead of Osborne. Not something he will relish as the Kippers park ever more tanks on the tory marginal lawns.
Whatever your views on Boris he is a very influential figure in the tory party so Cammie naturally wants to nullify him and keep him on side lest any more leadership speculation begin. Thus in the short term giving Boris's brother a position of power is a good way to keep Boris happy even if that position may be as token and as much desperate window dressing as the 'conservative parliamentary advisory board'.
In the longer term it may be a mistake because what Boris needs is someone close to number 10 and the chumocracy to keep him up to date on the latest comings and goings as he considers his options for 2015 and beyond.
For Cammie and Osbrowne short term 'fixes' always trump longer term strategy. Hence the Cast Iron EU Referendum promise with little thought given to what would happen if it unravels and now little thought also given to how this appointment looks.
Cui Bono? If Cons win in 2015 (not impossible, not likely) there's an issue with BoJo. If they lose Cam goes Boris comes in we move on.
If Cam wins, and wants an “historic third term” Boris must be dealt with. But that's eight years away and meanwhile he lit a bonfire underneath the Toffs not all in it together debate.
I refuse to believe there's no one from Bolton who could give Cam as good advice as JJohnson. Occam’s razor dictates it is as you say to appease the backbenchers and appease Boris. But it's weak. I can't believe Lynton is saying do this for that reason.
I can't bear Russell Brand - he's a self-absorbed narcissist who apes a Jesus look for extra effect.
I cant watch more than 10 secs of him unless he is being ripped by Hitchens. Never uses a short word when a long one will do, and about as funny as rabies in a guide dogs home.
I tried to read his autobiog and gave in half way through - its just a tale of how AMAZING ZANY and OUT THERE he is. It makes Max Clifford's hagiography about himself and his clients look modest. I didn't get to the end of that one either.
Dare I say even Piers Morgan was more self-critical than these two and that's seriously saying something. Katie Price's autobiog was a great deal more interesting by comparison. Hard to beat Paul Gascoigne's if you want microscopic analysis - Hunter Davis did a superb job there [and BTW is a very nice chap - met him several times].
As for Lynton Crosby, he didn't do well with a previous Tory prime ministerial candidate.
He was also given far too much credit for the Boris win when it is self-evident that Boris himself was the primary cause in what was a personality based contest between a still feisty Boris and a fading and lackluster Livingstone.
Crosby's immigration and welfare dog whistling also isn't going to look too smart if all it does is help the Kippers. Which it has been.
Good old Gord. Now being used by economists as a. case study in how not to manage gold reserves
What economists would they be? Conventionally it's not considered the job of the government to speculate on the commodity markets. If they're holding assets they don't need they should assume the markets are pricing them efficiently and sell them.
That said, UK taxpayers continue to pay the price for Osborne's failure to buy Bitcoins at 0.5 cents immediately on taking office.
Best not to pre-announce your Gold sale and crash the market. Its not called the Brown Bottom for nothing.
Isn't the falling crime rate down to an increased availability of abortions?
That's the very plausible reasoning by Freakonomics = another less likely but equally out there cause is lead in petrol that matches behaviour remarkably closely. I've no idea.
Good old Gord. Now being used by economists as a. case study in how not to manage gold reserves
What economists would they be? Conventionally it's not considered the job of the government to speculate on the commodity markets. If they're holding assets they don't need they should assume the markets are pricing them efficiently and sell them.
That said, UK taxpayers continue to pay the price for Osborne's failure to buy Bitcoins at 0.5 cents immediately on taking office.
And yet isn't that [selling gold] precisely what Brown was doing, trading a commodity for alternative assets? There was no reason to sell the gold - the best transferable ultra-long term store of money there is - so why did he do it?
@david_herdson The government shouldn't be storing a lot of money until it's paid off its debts, and I don't think anyone's going to accuse Gordon Brown of doing that.
Then of course the Airbus jets with British wings (±half the fuselage value) and British engines (±half the aircraft value) count as a British export to France when they go to Toulouse for final assembly - and a French export to China when they go to China....
I am not trying to talk us down, but looking to the future we need to be selling more to the emerging markets and need to be less reliant on Europe as our main market. Do you not agree?
Absolutely! But as I pointed out in aerospace much of our export to 'Europe' is in fact en-route to the rest of the world, just via France....
@Topping: "I refuse to believe there's no one from Bolton who could give Cam as good advice as JJohnson. "
Agree wholeheartedly. It's voices from the areas/groups where the Tories are at their weakest they should be listening to not people like them whose views they can probably work out without even speaking to them.
Cui Bono? If Cons win in 2015 (not impossible, not likely) there's an issue with BoJo. If they lose Cam goes Boris comes in we move on.
Boris is by no means an automatic sure thing if Cam loses. Boris will need to plot his route back carefully. He has shrewdly built an influential power base around his London Mayoralship but that is not quite the same as having enough tory backbenchers on-side. He needs to know what is happening at the heart of the chumocracy to best court those who may still be suspicious of someone who hasn't been in parliament for quite some time.
If Cam wins, and wants an “historic third term” Boris must be dealt with. But that's eight years away and meanwhile he lit a bonfire underneath the Toffs not all in it together debate.
If Cam wins he then has to deal with the most divisive and damaging tory issue or recent times. Europe. Boris has influence there and once the BOOers and tory IN battles starts Boris will choose sides and likely choose IN. Even if it's complete carnage Boris will still want to be right at the heart of things shaping future tory policy and his brother is there already to help.
I refuse to believe there's no one from Bolton who could give Cam as good advice as JJohnson. Occam’s razor dictates it is as you say to appease the backbenchers and appease Boris. But it's weak. I can't believe Lynton is saying do this for that reason.
Keep in mind that the tory backbenchers have already proven they can and will simply block Cam if they think he has overstepped his bounds. That's why Lords reform failed even though Cam wanted it so he could get boundary changes. They like that power and with the lib dems and Clegg likely to block ever more things they don't like Cammie has to try something to try to appease their anger. It is not a small problem but one likely to get far more acute with such things as the IN/OUT referendum also causing them immense disquiet.
I seriously believe crime is falling due to smartphones/Facebook. Even kids nowadays have Facebook-connected phones and why get into gateway crimes like vandalism etc when you can instead post on someone's wall 24/7?
People are too sucked into the internet to be bothered to commit crimes.
There was an entire article on the BBC t'other day, asking Why Crime Is Falling Across the Developed World, it's actually called The Riddle of Peacefulness.
The poor journalist can't think of a single reason why crime might be falling across the West. Not a sausage. He wonders vaguely if it is related to sunspots, or the work of little baby Jesus.
Repeat slowly after me.
Crime is committed by young people.
The. Western. World. Is. Ageing.
I posted the England and Wales demography before, here it is again:
The only category of adults to be falling is 30-44. The age bands most associated with crime (15-30) have got bigger in percentage terms and therefore quite a lot larger in absolute terms. And yet crime has fallen substantially.
You'll need to come up with some variant in order to explain the falling crime rate.
But the median age is rising fast - even in England and Wales. Society is getting older. Older societies - societies with more grannies hanging around talking about their bladders - are less likely to breed crime.
Imagine a street largely full of British teenagers, and a street filled with even more people - but a mix of teenagers, mums, and pensioners.
In which street would you expect to see more crime?
Sean, didn't you make a run of posts a while back about how the younger generations are just much nicer than the preceding ones?
March was so cold this year that it was colder than February, defying the normal annual cycle in temperatures. This has happened surprisingly often in the 354 year long record: 64 times, or an average of twice every eleven years, by my reckoning. While it was only the joint 12th coldest March in the record, it was the coldest March since 1892 (that year again).
April is currently on course to also roughly match 1892 (7.2C vs 7.3C) so if we allow ourselves the fantasy that the temperatures will follow 1892's course for the rest of the year we can look forward to an unusually cold October - 1892's was the tenth coldest. A cold October would be unusual for another reason - it is the only month in the CET record where the warmest three years have all been in the 2000s.
Well. I hope Sunil finds that interesting, anyway.
It will keep getting worse right up until the Euro falls apart. Never underestimate the absolute determination of Brussels to see the Euro and 'ever closer' carry on. But also never underestimate the power of economics to brush away the power of politics when they collide. That denouement in the Eurozone is still a year or three away. But it will come.
Good old Gord. Now being used by economists as a. case study in how not to manage gold reserves
What economists would they be? Conventionally it's not considered the job of the government to speculate on the commodity markets. If they're holding assets they don't need they should assume the markets are pricing them efficiently and sell them.
That said, UK taxpayers continue to pay the price for Osborne's failure to buy Bitcoins at 0.5 cents immediately on taking office.
And yet isn't that [selling gold] precisely what Brown was doing, trading a commodity for alternative assets? There was no reason to sell the gold - the best transferable ultra-long term store of money there is - so why did he do it?
It was to buy Euros, wasn't it?
I would suspect that Blair asked him to do it, but if he had done that would have made it less likely to happen.
I seriously believe crime is falling due to smartphones/Facebook. Even kids nowadays have Facebook-connected phones and why get into gateway crimes like vandalism etc when you can instead post on someone's wall 24/7?
People are too sucked into the internet to be bothered to commit crimes.
There was an entire article on the BBC t'other day, asking Why Crime Is Falling Across the Developed World, it's actually called The Riddle of Peacefulness.
The poor journalist can't think of a single reason why crime might be falling across the West. Not a sausage. He wonders vaguely if it is related to sunspots, or the work of little baby Jesus.
Repeat slowly after me.
Crime is committed by young people.
The. Western. World. Is. Ageing.
I posted the England and Wales demography before, here it is again:
The only category of adults to be falling is 30-44. The age bands most associated with crime (15-30) have got bigger in percentage terms and therefore quite a lot larger in absolute terms. And yet crime has fallen substantially.
You'll need to come up with some variant in order to explain the falling crime rate.
But the median age is rising fast - even in England and Wales. Society is getting older. Older societies - societies with more grannies hanging around talking about their bladders - are less likely to breed crime.
Imagine a street largely full of British teenagers, and a street filled with even more people - but a mix of teenagers, mums, and pensioners.
In which street would you expect to see more crime?
All the figures quoted are percentages. There are more grannies (except in London), more young adults, and fewer people in between. More potential victims of crime, more typical perpetrators - even proportionately - and fewer others to keep an eye on them. Even if you read it differently, many types of crime have fallen more than a third in ten years, when the demographic shift is subtle.
The median age of the population in 2011 England and Wales was 39. For men, the median age was 38 and for women it was 40. In 2001, the median age was 37.00.
I seriously believe crime is falling due to smartphones/Facebook. Even kids nowadays have Facebook-connected phones and why get into gateway crimes like vandalism etc when you can instead post on someone's wall 24/7?
People are too sucked into the internet to be bothered to commit crimes.
There was an entire article on the BBC t'other day, asking Why Crime Is Falling Across the Developed World, it's actually called The Riddle of Peacefulness.
The poor journalist can't think of a single reason why crime might be falling across the West. Not a sausage. He wonders vaguely if it is related to sunspots, or the work of little baby Jesus.
Repeat slowly after me.
Crime is committed by young people.
The. Western. World. Is. Ageing.
I posted the England and Wales demography before, here it is again:
The only category of adults to be falling is 30-44. The age bands most associated with crime (15-30) have got bigger in percentage terms and therefore quite a lot larger in absolute terms. And yet crime has fallen substantially.
You'll need to come up with some variant in order to explain the falling crime rate.
But the median age is rising fast - even in England and Wales. Society is getting older. Older societies - societies with more grannies hanging around talking about their bladders - are less likely to breed crime.
Imagine a street largely full of British teenagers, and a street filled with even more people - but a mix of teenagers, mums, and pensioners.
In which street would you expect to see more crime?
All the figures quoted are percentages. There are more grannies (except in London), more young adults, and fewer people in between. More potential victims of crime, more typical perpetrators - even proportionately - and fewer others to keep an eye on them. Even if you read it differently, many types of crime have fallen more than a third in ten years, when the demographic shift is subtle.
The median age of the population in 2011 England and Wales was 39. For men, the median age was 38 and for women it was 40. In 2001, the median age was 37.00.
Why is the 30-44 range three times the size of the others?
Note that the population of London according to the census went from 7.1 to 8.1m.
Thanks, bears out your earlier point about the age cohorts most likely to be involved in crime growing while crime has declined. And the extremely low and declining number of pensioners destroys the ageing point SeanT just made.
The median age of Londoners is also rising. Go check. Duh.
@Plato: "HA! The fields round here haven't germinated either - horses/sheep/cattle are being fed on hay as the grass isn't growing either - its a mess. My daffodils haven't flowered and its May next week...and I'm in Sussex. You can't get more southerly than 6 miles from the Channel."
Daffs are going over here, and fruit trees just out in blossom, but beware the cold spell starting at the weekend.
The primroses in the hedge banks are magnificent and best for years - must be the late Spring.
Farmers are having problems with little grass growth but as they first made silage in April last year ( and then thrice more) then they have a good stock. However it looks like June for their first silage cut this year. Farmers are under severe pressure as costs of fertilizers and solid feed has gone up by 10% but milk prices are level or lower. Many dairy farmers are selling up.
"Although the number of persons aged 65 and over in London increased slightly from 892,000 in 2001 to 905,000 in 2011, the proportion of persons aged 65 and over made up only 11.1 per cent of London’s population in 2011 (down from 12.4 per cent in 2001)."
Comments
Will Straw @wdjstraw
UK economy still 2.6% below 2008 peak making this the longest recovery since records began.
That said, I can't help feeling quite a bit more optimistic with a +0.3% figure than I would have been with -0.3%. One can hope that this will be the year when Osborne's luck starts to change and the economy exceeds expectations.
A triumph of hope over experience, Sir Topping.
If you throw him some extra acorns, he is known to roll on his back and grunt the word "Lansley" in delirious satisfaction.
Henry Samuel @H_E_Samuel
France could beat all-time unemployment record of 3.195 million today, last met in 1997. Counting jobless who worked this month, makes 5mil
My headlines have been stolen by an Irish baronet fop.
Huzzah .. Huzzah
Coalitionistas might incline to a small dry sherry before luncheon .... and then revert to the important work of ruining the rest of "tim's" day !!
@richie_1994wale
UK GDP in 2011 revised upwards. Originally estimated economy grew by 0.8% in that year, new estimate today says it grew by 1.1% #UKeconomy
mind you farmers are famous for finding things to grumble over. Just look at tim.
The strategy, such as it is, is best seen in conjunction with another bit of news which was astutely highlighted last night by anotherDave. He's not a left wing poster so no need to panic. He is quite correct.
Another showdown between Cammie and his backbenchers is definitely brewing.
Ironically the growth figures today may have given Osbrowne a little breathing room but in doing so it simply means that any May local election bloodbath will put the focus firmly on Cameron instead of Osborne. Not something he will relish as the Kippers park ever more tanks on the tory marginal lawns.
Whatever your views on Boris he is a very influential figure in the tory party so Cammie naturally wants to nullify him and keep him on side lest any more leadership speculation begin. Thus in the short term giving Boris's brother a position of power is a good way to keep Boris happy even if that position may be as token and as much desperate window dressing as the 'conservative parliamentary advisory board'.
In the longer term it may be a mistake because what Boris needs is someone close to number 10 and the chumocracy to keep him up to date on the latest comings and goings as he considers his options for 2015 and beyond.
For Cammie and Osbrowne short term 'fixes' always trump longer term strategy. Hence the Cast Iron EU Referendum promise with little thought given to what would happen if it unravels and now little thought also given to how this appointment looks.
Nick de Bois MP @nickdebois
Very pleased to read reports that Queens Speech will not contain #CommsData Bill - await confirmation
The good news on the economy may produce an upward tick though, through increasing confidence in the night time economy.
Still the girls can always marry the Etonians.
Should get Dave a fillip in the gender approval ratings.
Always looking for bad news I think, some - no most of them.
People are too sucked into the internet to be bothered to commit crimes.
Anyway, the daffs are out in Yorkshire so I don't know what wimpy kind you have in Sussex?
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2013/04/peace-perfect-peace-is-the-uk-peace-index-right.html
Claire Perry
@claire4devizes
So: growth up,deficit down, 1.25m new jobs, crime down, immigration down, NHS protected, schools+welfare reformed. After 3 years. Good.
Odds of a Tory majority at next election cut from 5/1 to 4/1
Lab MAJ 11/10
NOM 6/4
Con MAJ 4/1
UKIP MAJ 100/1
LD MAJ 200/1
I doubt even Clegg could get away with that so the lib dems are probably right to celebrate.
And indeed everyone else who opposed this ludicrous authoritarian nonsense from the start.
http://s15.postimg.org/6b9pp7ta3/image.png
The idea that Osborne is so crap, has set the bar so low, that any non-terrible news is amplified has some validity I think.
It is indeed gratifying that you have moved your spinning 'talent' over to Osbrowne. Though I fear it doesn't bode well for his future prospects as PM any more than it did for Lansley.
Anyway here is his account of why crime is "falling"....
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2013/01/should-we-trust-official-crime-figures.html
Genuine question, is there any ever record of crime increasing, or has it been falling forever?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100213791/the-gdp-figures-show-that-ed-milibands-luck-has-run-out/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
A few months ago I was chatting to a supporter of David Miliband. “I think Ed might actually make it,” he said. “He’s useless, but he’s lucky.”
Today may well prove to be the day Ed Miliband’s luck ran out. Had the economy plunged back into a triple-dip recession, the developing narrative of a turning of the political tide would have come to a juddering halt. As it is, GDP growth of 0.3 per cent – at the top end of most economist’s expectations – guarantees that narrative additional momentum.
lol!
What a strange little person Dan Hodges is.
I can't work out whether he's incredibly astute in getting paid to play court jester to his gullible anti-Labour target audience, or whether he's genuinely a bit unhinged.
It might give the impression that they want someone else in charge.
That his polling is crap and the party lead has narrowed for whatever reason doesn't help with morale either.
I hope Tory activists are as full of zeal as Kippers on the doorstep...
Thus spake a "floating voter".
Wakefield should be thoroughly ashamed of what he did. He caused real harm.
I also hope that the man who was convicted of selling pretendy bomb detectors gets the maximum possible sentence.
0.3% growth in Q1 is better than nothing. The revision of the 2011 figures is interesting: 1.1%. What were the growth figures for 2010?
(In any case the elections next week will teach the Tories the perils of hubris, I suspect.)
My daffodils are now coming out; the scillas and muscari are also out and the yellow/blue combination is lovely. Also the apricot is beginning to blossom so - fingers crossed - it will fruit. But everything is very much later than normal. One year I had my roses (Mme Alfred Carriere) out on 23 April.
And the sun is shining today....!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22277954
trans. 'Calm down dears.....'
Urgh etc. ;^)
Cameron is a coalition prime Minister not a Tory one. It's a long time since we've had an elected Tory PM.
Last night's You Gov may indicate that the Maggie love in is all but over with a rise in the Labour figure.
I also love the fact that Brand thinks he is some kind of rebel when he is in fact securely part of the establishment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsMU77TwYM0
Also here are some great PH 'moments', I think he is hilarious and misunderstood
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WI4cE1iHER0
One person who might be welcoming this news is our former Chancellor Gordon Brown, but even so the price falls still can't eradicate the damage his sale of gold did to the UK economy,
The U.K. had the world’s second-biggest [gold] reserves in 1958 and now ranks 18th. Gordon Brown, the [UK's former] finance minister, sold about 400 tons in auctions from 1999 to 2002, getting no more than $296.50 and as little as $255.75. The nation raised almost $3.5 billion, which was invested in dollars, euros and yen. The gold is now valued at about $18.4 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Good old Gord. Now being used by economists as a. case study in how not to manage gold reserves
I can't bear Russell Brand - he's a self-absorbed narcissist who apes a Jesus look for extra effect.
*checks window for plague of locusts and/or rain of frogs*
The Blairite / Union to-and-fro is probably something that will crop up occasionally for some time yet, no matter who is Labour leader.
Aside from that, I've seen a few anti-Labour articles from predictably and reliably Tory sources like Ben Brogan, which is something Labour will not be able to avoid anyway.
March was so cold this year that it was colder than February, defying the normal annual cycle in temperatures. This has happened surprisingly often in the 354 year long record: 64 times, or an average of twice every eleven years, by my reckoning. While it was only the joint 12th coldest March in the record, it was the coldest March since 1892 (that year again).
April is currently on course to also roughly match 1892 (7.2C vs 7.3C) so if we allow ourselves the fantasy that the temperatures will follow 1892's course for the rest of the year we can look forward to an unusually cold October - 1892's was the tenth coldest. A cold October would be unusual for another reason - it is the only month in the CET record where the warmest three years have all been in the 2000s.
Well. I hope Sunil finds that interesting, anyway.
Though ageing would explain why crime rates are falling, but not why absolute levels of crime are falling (if indeed they are?).
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/526/demographictrend2001201.png/
The only category of adults to be falling is 30-44. The age bands most associated with crime (15-30) have got bigger in percentage terms and therefore quite a lot larger in absolute terms. And yet crime has fallen substantially.
You'll need to come up with some variant in order to explain the falling crime rate.
Many thanks - I didn't really understand the correlation between grass growth and temp until a farmer friend of mine chatted about it a couple of years ago - it very tight and when it fails , it really hurts.
That said, UK taxpayers continue to pay the price for Osborne's failure to buy Bitcoins at 0.5 cents immediately on taking office.
I am not trying to talk us down, but looking to the future we need to be selling more to the emerging markets and need to be less reliant on Europe as our main market. Do you not agree? The EU is not going to be a powerhouse of growth any time soon let's face it.
(Sorry i can't work out how to selectively quote without c0cking up the HTML)
If Cam wins, and wants an “historic third term” Boris must be dealt with. But that's eight years away and meanwhile he lit a bonfire underneath the Toffs not all in it together debate.
I refuse to believe there's no one from Bolton who could give Cam as good advice as JJohnson. Occam’s razor dictates it is as you say to appease the backbenchers and appease Boris. But it's weak. I can't believe Lynton is saying do this for that reason.
Dare I say even Piers Morgan was more self-critical than these two and that's seriously saying something. Katie Price's autobiog was a great deal more interesting by comparison. Hard to beat Paul Gascoigne's if you want microscopic analysis - Hunter Davis did a superb job there [and BTW is a very nice chap - met him several times].
Crosby's immigration and welfare dog whistling also isn't going to look too smart if all it does is help the Kippers. Which it has been.
Best not to pre-announce your Gold sale and crash the market. Its not called the Brown Bottom for nothing.
Edit: May have been an option with the Bitcoins...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9790009/Was-lead-pollution-behind-the-baby-boomer-crime-wave.html
This is London:
http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/7262/demographlondon.png
Note that the population of London according to the census went from 7.1 to 8.1m.
Agree wholeheartedly. It's voices from the areas/groups where the Tories are at their weakest they should be listening to not people like them whose views they can probably work out without even speaking to them.
It will keep getting worse right up until the Euro falls apart. Never underestimate the absolute determination of Brussels to see the Euro and 'ever closer' carry on. But also never underestimate the power of economics to brush away the power of politics when they collide. That denouement in the Eurozone is still a year or three away. But it will come.
I would suspect that Blair asked him to do it, but if he had done that would have made it less likely to happen.
The median age of the population in 2011 England and Wales was 39. For men, the median age was 38 and for women it was 40. In 2001, the median age was 37.00.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_Structure_of_Nucleic_Acids:_A_Structure_for_Deoxyribose_Nucleic_Acid
Why is the 30-44 range three times the size of the others?
http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/services/environment-and-planning/planning/development-and-population-information/demography-and-housing/Documents/DP_PL_demographicC[1] Demographic.pdf
Gives 2001 figures (matching with the census I built the table from on total pops.)
Inner London: 32
Greater London: 38
2011 figures can be found if you google "2011 Census: Age structure, local authorities in England and Wales"
Inner London: 32
"London": 33
"HA! The fields round here haven't germinated either - horses/sheep/cattle are being fed on hay as the grass isn't growing either - its a mess. My daffodils haven't flowered and its May next week...and I'm in Sussex. You can't get more southerly than 6 miles from the Channel."
Daffs are going over here, and fruit trees just out in blossom, but beware the cold spell starting at the weekend.
The primroses in the hedge banks are magnificent and best for years - must be the late Spring.
Farmers are having problems with little grass growth but as they first made silage in April last year ( and then thrice more) then they have a good stock. However it looks like June for their first silage cut this year. Farmers are under severe pressure as costs of fertilizers and solid feed has gone up by 10% but milk prices are level or lower. Many dairy farmers are selling up.
http://data.london.gov.uk/datastorefiles/documents/2011-census-first-results.pdf
"Although the number of persons aged 65 and over in London increased slightly from 892,000 in 2001 to 905,000 in 2011, the proportion of persons aged 65 and over made up only 11.1 per cent of London’s population in 2011 (down from 12.4 per cent
in 2001)."
Apols Telegraph readers!