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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539
    IanB2 said:

    The Tories have drawn the wrong lesson, seeing it and their partners as something to be killed off. If the Tories had celebrated it, we and they might all be in a much better position right now
    Had the Tories agreed to not stand against the Lib Dems in their seats, do you think the Lib Dems would have agreed to an In/Out referendum were the coalition to be returned to power?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Scott_P said:
    It’s s bit unfair on Javid to expect omniscience about financial matters. My MP was a manager at LIdl but I wouldn’t blame him for the failure or Woolworths.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    JackW said:

    I'd certainly like to see Stewart in the next round. He's shaken the race up and taken other candidates out of their comfort zone.

    What I thought was instructive last night was the reaction of the other candidates. They couldn't understand why Stewart wasn't following normal debate tactics and were off balance as he poured forth and took the audience with him. Hunt eventually realized this and improved through the debate.

    On Hunt I've been surprised by his lack of traction. Low first round total, indifferent campaign and little momentum.
    Hunt probably looked the most prime ministerial in the debate, even if Rory was more interesting.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Channel 4 has put the debate on Youtube.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWdRE0XyecA
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    JackW said:

    I'd certainly like to see Stewart in the next round. He's shaken the race up and taken other candidates out of their comfort zone.

    What I thought was instructive last night was the reaction of the other candidates. They couldn't understand why Stewart wasn't following normal debate tactics and were off balance as he poured forth and took the audience with him. Hunt eventually realized this and improved through the debate.

    On Hunt I've been surprised by his lack of traction. Low first round total, indifferent campaign and little momentum.

    Yes, Hunt has been a disappointment. Like Boris he's trying to be all things to all men, with the difference that he's a little more realistic. He hasn't really made the case for being more realistic, though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    Yes, Hunt has been a disappointment. Like Boris he's trying to be all things to all men, with the difference that he's a little more realistic. He hasn't really made the case for being more realistic, though.
    ...and he wants to kill old people!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197
    eristdoof said:

    Please, please, please next time take at least a month to draw up a legally binding coalition contract for the whole parliamentary term. Don't be dazzled by the bright headlights of power and essentially sign away power to the major party.

    Don't listen to the right wing press who will say the country is in a rudderless crisis. The previous government functioned perfectly well for the 6 weeks with no parliamentary support during the GE campaign and can easily cope with another couple of months with no new legislation.
    I think that the Coalition Agreement was a remarkable document and fairly even in the concessions made by both sides. Where the problem arose was governing and events after the CA was in force. The Lib Dems rolled over much too readily to stay in government. The quad gave an element of stability to the government but Osborne in particular seemed to run rings around Clegg and Alexander. As the SPD in Germany are finding to their cost the priority for the minority party in a coalition is to retain their identity and voice. They should watch and learn from how the DUP have performed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    isam said:

    Amazing this is dismissed as hypothetical, when leave won three years ago, while the actual hypothetical is "eminently possible"!!!

    I wasn't dismissing anything. Just pointing out that there is non trivial possibility that Labour win a pre-Brexit election, hold a 2nd referendum which Remain wins, and as a consequence Brexit is cancelled - in which case the debate around what kind of post-Brexit policies our governments pursue becomes a hypothetical one. Statement of cold hard fact, that is.

    But my main point is that if Brexit does happen, and these post-Brexit policies end up being of the centrist sort that could just as easily have been implemented as an EU member, then it could well be argued that leaving had proved a monumental waste of time and money and energy.

    FWIW, I think the Cons and DUP should have supported their government and voted Brexit through. The 2016 referendum was a clear instruction to leave.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    justin124 said:

    I disagree re- Swinson's performance on the Local Election results programme. Thought she was very unimpressive and lightweight - indeed more so than Tim Farron.
    I think Swinson is always unimpressive and don't get the hype about her at all
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited June 2019

    Yes, Hunt has been a disappointment. Like Boris he's trying to be all things to all men, with the difference that he's a little more realistic. He hasn't really made the case for being more realistic, though.
    The value bet from here is probably Gove. I think he's best placed to make the runoff.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    isam said:

    ...and he wants to kill old people!
    Well at least it's a distinctive policy!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Scott_P said:
    More likely Hanky Panky has sniffed which way the wind is blowing, knows its a done deal for Boris and wants to keep his job in the Cabinet... ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,361
    Meanwhile the top dawg of snowflakey, right wing victimhood is at it again.

    https://twitter.com/ktumulty/status/1140440538266648576
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137
    tlg86 said:

    Had the Tories agreed to not stand against the Lib Dems in their seats, do you think the Lib Dems would have agreed to an In/Out referendum were the coalition to be returned to power?
    Neither side would have wanted an electoral pact. Nevertheless only Cameron really saw the historic opportunity the coalition presented the Tories, and he threw it away and broke his promise to Clegg by fighting the AV referendum in a cynical, negative and highly personal way.

    It is remarkable that it never occurred to Cammo that he might lose his own referendum to similarly dishonest tactics.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The Lib Dem problem with the Coalition is that the Tories took the credit for popular Lib Dem policies that they were forced to implement, like increasing the personal allowance and the pupil premium, and the Lib Dems took the blame for unpopular Tory policies that they had to accept, like tuition fees and austerity in general.

    The one policy that the Lib Dems won from the Coalition that the Tories weren't happy about was electoral reform, and they botched that by having it contingent on a referendum which they then lost.

    Next time they would need to have some clear wins so that they could say to the electorate: You voted for us and in return you received these things, a, b and c, that you like that they didn't want you to have. Vote for us again and we'll force them to give you x, y and z and protect a, b and c.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    Not really. The LibDems had been saying for yonks that they wanted a new sort of politics, parties working together, that the sum would be better than the parts, that they didn't like governments to be formed with the support of only 35% or 40% of the electorate etc etc. That was the LibDem pitch, not the Conservative one. So, having finally got what they wanted after many decades, wouldn't you expect them to be pleased and positive about it?
    Again that is a very Conservative way of looking at it.

    I agree with your first part. I disagree with "having finally got what they wanted after many decades". They were utterly unprepared once the election result (not such a surprising one) was know and were steam-rollered by the Conservatives. They did not get much credit for the progressive policies they did get through (10K income tax threshold) and took "collective responsibility" for the tory policies on the chin (austerity and the 9K student fees).

    They have every reason to be sheepish about their coaltion years. Not for their motivation in forming a coalition but for their performance.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited June 2019

    Meanwhile the top dawg of snowflakey, right wing victimhood is at it again.

    https://twitter.com/ktumulty/status/1140440538266648576

    Given Lincoln was actually assassinated (rather than just being character assassinated) I'm not sure that's going to fly for The Donald... :D
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    kinabalu said:

    I wasn't dismissing anything. Just pointing out that there is non trivial possibility that Labour win a pre-Brexit election, hold a 2nd referendum which Remain wins, and as a consequence Brexit is cancelled - in which case the debate around what kind of post-Brexit policies our governments pursue becomes a hypothetical one. Statement of cold hard fact, that is.

    But my main point is that if Brexit does happen, and these post-Brexit policies end up being of the centrist sort that could just as easily have been implemented as an EU member, then it could well be argued that leaving had proved a monumental waste of time and money and energy.

    FWIW, I think the Cons and DUP should have supported their government and voted Brexit through. The 2016 referendum was a clear instruction to leave.
    It would be hard for a centrist govt who committed to reducing immigration to the tens of thousands to hide behind EU regulations when they increased it to record levels
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197

    Well at least it's a distinctive policy!
    Fiscally sound as well.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2019
    eristdoof said:

    Again that is a very Conservative way of looking at it.

    I agree with your first part. I disagree with "having finally got what they wanted after many decades". They were utterly unprepared once the election result (not such a surprising one) was know and were steam-rollered by the Conservatives. They did not get much credit for the progressive policies they did get through (10K income tax threshold) and took "collective responsibility" for the tory policies on the chin (austerity and the 9K student fees).

    They have every reason to be sheepish about their coaltion years. Not for their motivation in forming a coalition but for their performance.

    They didn't get credit for their contributions because they didn't celebrate them. They went around looking thoroughly miserable and saying how awful their coalition partners were. Unsurprisingly, that made voters think 'then why the hell are you in coalition with them?'.

    As for not being prepared for coalition, well, quite. Not being prepared for what you've been striving for for half a century is, shall we say, somewhat careless, especially given the polling after the Cleggasm.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    JackW said:

    An interesting positive straw in the wind for the Roryites hoping he'll make the 33 threshold has been the slow or lack of further endorsements for the second ballot of his rivals.

    Gove and Rabb have added one and Javid and Hunt none. Stewart has added four and he significantly outperformed his declared backers last time. He needs to do so again to progress.

    I was unimpressed by Hancock endorsing Johnson. Ambition is fine but this smacks of naked careerism. Perhaps that is why they get on, CTTOI.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    They didn't get credit for their contributions because they didn't celebrate them. The went around looking thoroughly miserable and saying how awful their coalition partners were. Unsurprisingly, that made voters think 'then why the hell are you in coalition with them?'.

    As for not being prepared for coalition, well, quite. Not being prepared for what you've been striving for for half a century is, shall we say, somewhat careless, especially given the polling after the Cleggasm.
    They didn't get through the parts of their legislative agenda they cared about most, and their vote was dedicated. Why wouldn't they be unhappy?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    DavidL said:

    Fiscally sound as well.
    I hear the policy is that you get 15 years after your state pension age, and that's your lot. It should sort out the WASPI problem as well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137

    I think Swinson is always unimpressive and don't get the hype about her at all
    Sadly it is mostly desperation to break the duck of female leadership (which they'll be happy to dump on Labour) and hoping for the best.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    I hear the policy is that you get 15 years after your state pension age, and that's your lot. It should sort out the WASPI problem as well.
    Engineering a Remain bias for the second referendum to boot
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197

    I hear the policy is that you get 15 years after your state pension age, and that's your lot. It should sort out the WASPI problem as well.
    Ah yes, the women fighting for inequality with men. You're tempting me now.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    kinabalu said:

    I was unimpressed by Hancock endorsing Johnson. Ambition is fine but this smacks of naked careerism. Perhaps that is why they get on, CTTOI.
    Not unduly surprised that a politician would be a naked careerist, although with the Rory campaign that would mean he'd be tweeting in the bath !!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137

    They didn't get credit for their contributions because they didn't celebrate them. They went around looking thoroughly miserable and saying how awful their coalition partners were. Unsurprisingly, that made voters think 'then why the hell are you in coalition with them?'.

    As for not being prepared for coalition, well, quite. Not being prepared for what you've been striving for for half a century is, shall we say, somewhat careless, especially given the polling after the Cleggasm.
    As I said, the good faith disappeared after Cammo's treachery on AV. That Cammo's EU deal was subsequently lost to equally ludicrous propaganda about the NHS was karma
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    I hear the policy is that you get 15 years after your state pension age, and that's your lot. It should sort out the WASPI problem as well.
    And the BBC licence fee issue.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,378
    It sounds like the LDs have a choice between a second class woman and a first class man. They'll go for the woman, because it's time they had one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539
    IanB2 said:

    Neither side would have wanted an electoral pact. Nevertheless only Cameron really saw the historic opportunity the coalition presented the Tories, and he threw it away and broke his promise to Clegg by fighting the AV referendum in a cynical, negative and highly personal way.

    It is remarkable that it never occurred to Cammo that he might lose his own referendum to similarly dishonest tactics.
    Not that I'm Cameron and Osborne's biggest fan, but that AV referendum was incidental to what happened in 2015. Unfortunately for the Lib Dems, simply going into coalition with the Tories cost them the NOTA vote, and I suspect the Scotland issue tempted some swing voters into backing the Tories.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,402

    Ah, so you're another unicorn hunter.
    You say unicorn I say normality. I used to live in Australia and have family in Canada. I compare us to them and say we should be like them. Independent nations with an FTA. What is unicorn about that?

    You put a 'good deal' first. You don't think May's deal is a good deal - in fact you think it's a 'bad deal'.

    The unicorn is that you apparently believe a 'good deal' is achievable when it clearly is not - especially in just a few months. That means that if you were honest 'good deal' isn't available, and you really want:

    No deal > Remain > Bad deal

    You are a no dealer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    isam said:

    It would be hard for a centrist govt who committed to reducing immigration to the tens of thousands to hide behind EU regulations when they increased it to record levels

    Indeed. But a UK government that really does implement stringent immigration controls - as opposed to just mouthing platitudes - will by definition not be a centrist one.

    This is my point.

    If we invest all of this time and resource into leaving the EU and then do NOT veer strongly either Right or Left, the whole undertaking will have failed the cost/benefit test by a large margin. Win our 'freedom' and then don't use it. Do the same old stuff but with inferior trade terms and a consequently smaller economy. Don't remember that on a bus or anywhere else.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    Hunt probably looked the most prime ministerial in the debate, even if Rory was more interesting.
    Yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Jonathan said:

    I agree with Roger that Sir Ed Davey has a bad ring to it. Can’t think of what he actually did to deserve it.
    Didn't various lds essentially get gongs as an apology for getting turfed out despite being loyal coalition members?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Rory Stewart holding an eve of vote rally at the "Underbelly Festival Garden" tonight at 6:00pm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Roger said:

    OT. Surprised no one has mentioned Tom Watson saying Labour should unequivocally REVERSE Brexit

    Well it's been the unspoken policy of most in labour for some time. Just a question if the great man himself will get there.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829

    Meanwhile the top dawg of snowflakey, right wing victimhood is at it again.

    Guy is beyond the pale. Promoting the overtly racist UK far right again the other day, I note. Amazeballs (in a bad way) that so many shrug it off.

    Just has to be beaten in 2020. Do not care who by. Far more important to me that Trump is ousted than to see Labour win here, or to see a No Deal Brexit thwarted - and those are both things I am very very keen on, trust me.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    That's possible.
    It's very possible.

    I'm pretty red on Stewart but will be reviewing my position after the 2nd vote.

    If he doesn't make it, I won't have to, but I suspect he probably will.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kinabalu said:

    Indeed. But a UK government that really does implement stringent immigration controls - as opposed to just mouthing platitudes - will by definition not be a centrist one.

    This is my point.

    If we invest all of this time and resource into leaving the EU and then do NOT veer strongly either Right or Left, the whole undertaking will have failed the cost/benefit test by a large margin. Win our 'freedom' and then don't use it. Do the same old stuff but with inferior trade terms and a consequently smaller economy. Don't remember that on a bus or anywhere else.
    Well that depends on your definition of "centrist". I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls. That's the centre-ground of British politics right there.

    You and I might not like it, but pretending it hasn't happened isn't going to win the argument with voters to change minds and move the centre ground to a position that supports immigration.

    A lot of the current talk about "centrism" sounds like a way to define what is right and proper without having to go to the effort of winning the political debate for people to support that. Extremes are bad, centrism is good, now listen to what I tell you centrism is.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,361
    kle4 said:

    Didn't various lds essentially get gongs as an apology for getting turfed out despite being loyal coalition members?
    The innovative 3 part Faustian pact deal:
    ministerial cars and a sniff of power>reputation fcucked>gong
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829

    Hunt probably looked the most prime ministerial in the debate, even if Rory was more interesting.

    I agree on Hunt. I am also less down on Gove than most. For me, those two are the credible PMs from the six. 'Rory' is now being overrated.
  • cossmanncossmann Posts: 14
    This is a short profile - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00060tf. Don’t expect to be gripped.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    It really is pathetic to see Priti, Esther and The Truss jostling to become Bozo's cabinet fluffer.

    Especially when Gavin Williamson seems to have the gig sown up.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Well at least it's a distinctive policy!
    Anything is better than our current policy - which is essentially to torture many old people for years as they live in pain and misery before they die. Often medical often social isolation - often both.

    Frankly we treat our dogs and horses more humanely than our elderly. Why not let elderly people choose how their own life ends - not doctors, lawyers, moralisers and politicians.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,813

    I hear the policy is that you get 15 years after your state pension age, and that's your lot. It should sort out the WASPI problem as well.
    Don't forget, Hunt was Health Secretary for quite some time, and never adequately solved the bed blocker problem...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197

    It really is pathetic to see Priti, Esther and The Truss jostling to become Bozo's cabinet fluffer.

    Especially when Gavin Williamson seems to have the gig sown up.

    I think you may be mistaken about who is getting fluffed in the new regime. The re-emergence of Williamson as a significant player is not an ideal development in my view.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    It really is pathetic to see Priti, Esther and The Truss jostling to become Bozo's cabinet fluffer.

    Especially when Gavin Williamson seems to have the gig sown up.

    Don't forget Matt!
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Another Brexidiot on Politics Live. 17,4 million voted for Brexit. Yes, love, so 46 million didn't.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    isam said:

    ...and he wants to kill old people!
    Yawn
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577

    I think Swinson is always unimpressive and don't get the hype about her at all
    Ditto.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Rory 17.5 to be next leader, Gove 50.0. Bonkers.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Rory 17.5 to be next leader, Gove 50.0. Bonkers.

    Gove "Bonkers" .... who knew ?!?! .... insert name .. :sunglasses:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829

    Well that depends on your definition of "centrist". I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls. That's the centre-ground of British politics right there.

    You and I might not like it, but pretending it hasn't happened isn't going to win the argument with voters to change minds and move the centre ground to a position that supports immigration.

    A lot of the current talk about "centrism" sounds like a way to define what is right and proper without having to go to the effort of winning the political debate for people to support that. Extremes are bad, centrism is good, now listen to what I tell you centrism is.

    StrongER, yes, but I was more thinking of a proper crackdown - the sort of thing that would really move the dial on this. In our politics, that is an outlier position.

    I agree with your comment on 'centrism'. A much abused term by both proponents and opponents of it.

    A fairly good definition of a 'centrist' policy, IMO, is anything that one can implement as a member of the European Union without causing a ruction.

    If you can do it in the EU it is most probably centrist.

    NB: The reverse does not follow. Something that is verboten to an EU member is not necessarily NOT centrist, i.e. extreme. But it often will be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Hard to see how Boris wins a GE. Maybe if Farage goes back on his word and does go for a pact, that could be enough, but even then, Labour will regain almost all of the green party vote and a large chunk of the lib dem vote that they are currently predicted to lose, even if Labour continue to offer equivocation on Brexit. Anyone opposed to a Boris Farage pact will reluctantly vote Labour much like in 2017. SNP likely to clean up again in Scotland removes a chunk of Scot Tory MPs and parliament ends up more hung than before.

    If there's no Farage Boris pact then all bets are off, the huge vote split would leave many Remainers feeling more comfortable denying Corbyn their vote, and we could see scenarios playing out like all the recent yougov polls.

    Boris wins majority with the latest Yougov and Comres polls, with the Brexit Party vote at least halving in the Tories favour
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    Fenman said:

    Another Brexidiot on Politics Live. 17,4 million voted for Brexit. Yes, love, so 46 million didn't.

    How many under 18 year olds are you counting in your "not Brexit" column?

  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    edited June 2019
    Swinson might lose her seat at the next election. Sure, her majority is better than Davey's, but I think the way the two seats will play out with Brexit churn will favour Davey and harm Swinson. Namely, The Conservative anti-SNP vote that helped Swinson will migrate back to Conservative and over to the Brexit Party. If the SNP can claw their way back up to 35% in the East Dumbartonshire, it might be enough.

    EDIT: in 2017 the Tory vote in E.D. went up, but less than the average Scottish rise: 6% vs 13%.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923

    Rory 17.5 to be next leader, Gove 50.0. Bonkers.

    You mean because it overestimates Rory and underestimates Gove?

    But in terms of percentages they're both very small, and the difference is only 3-4 points.

    I wouldn't bet on it, because it depends on evaluating just how mad the Tory party has become. In the words of Ted Heath, I am not a doctor.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Boris ducking the C4 debate was understandable, but chickening out of the press gallery hustings does look as though he's terrified of being asked awkward questions.

    I would be running a "Boris had withdrawn from the race" campaign if I was a rival
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    CD13 said:

    It sounds like the LDs have a choice between a second class woman and a first class man. They'll go for the woman, because it's time they had one.

    Labour are in the same boat. They MUST get a female leader after JC.

    Thankfully, there is talent of the required gender available.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,361
    edited June 2019
    cossmann said:

    This is a short profile - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00060tf. Don’t expect to be gripped.

    It was broadcast early on Sunday morning, listening to it was an added penance to insomnia. That level of smugness ensured I wouldn't get back to sleep.

    One thing that struck me was that it was suggested that Swinson's electoral rejection in 2015 was entirely down to coalition complicity rather than part of the SNP post indy ref tidal wave. I could see a case being made for elements of both being relevant, but odd to entirely ignore the latter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited June 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    Because many Germans have Ostalgie for the collective structures and communitarian principles of the DDR and the SED. Less so for the nazis.

    The AfD and Die Linke are not remotely comparable.
    They are, they are both the parties of extremist authoritarians just one is extreme right and one extreme left, there are Stalinists in Die Linke
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eristdoof said:

    How long did it take for Aus and Canada to negotiate their FTAs? And notice the use of the plural, you need an FTA with each major trading Nation/Block. Without a WA-Brexit the UK will be on WTO tariffs for years.
    That's fine so get on with negotiating then. My preffered solution is to have a transition period, but no backstop to it. The backstop is redundant to the transition (it doesn't kick in during transition) and is only for afterwards. Well afterwards should be for the future negotiations.

    If that can't be agreed then immediate no deal and there's still no backstop. But offer the olive branch of a backstopless transition and we pay the billions they want once they drop the backstop.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,361
    HYUFD said:

    Don't forget Matt!
    A Hancock becoming a fluffer is definitely a case of nominative determinism.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923
    HYUFD said:

    Boris wins majority with the latest Yougov and Comres polls, with the Brexit Party vote at least halving in the Tories favour
    I think you really need to be more cautious about these polls.

    In a real FPTP election, I think the Tories and Labour are bound to do better than they would indicate. The question is, how much better in each case.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited June 2019


    You say unicorn I say normality. I used to live in Australia and have family in Canada. I compare us to them and say we should be like them. Independent nations with an FTA. What is unicorn about that?

    How do Australia handle their EU land border?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Fenman said:

    Another Brexidiot on Politics Live. 17,4 million voted for Brexit. Yes, love, so 46 million didn't.

    You're the idiot. 16.14 million didn't.

    Non-voters don't count for either side.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    But he is also arrogant, remote and surrounded by a coterie of sycophants who keep away anyone who dares to question his bountiful wisdom. His relationship with colleagues is prickly and the closer you get to him the less attractive he seems.
    Sounds like Macron then and Cameron said Obama was 'a complete narcissist' after they first met, though to be fair Obama had said he was 'a lightweight' though they got on better afterwards
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137
    kinabalu said:

    Labour are in the same boat. They MUST get a female leader after JC.

    .
    So Mrs M does have a legacy, after all.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,402

    How do Australia handle their EU land border?
    That wasn't actually me - I mucked up the blockquotes. my bit was below that.

    Sorry.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2019

    How do Australia handle their EU land border?
    How do Norway? Switzerland? Ukraine? Russia? Albania? Serbia? Montenegro? Or many other examples.

    If the EU won't give us a deal that is how we should handle it. Simples.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited June 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    I think we could be seeing signs that British politics is going to "normalize" in the 2020's.

    Way I see things (possibly) panning out:

    1. Boris wins autumn general election and we Brexit.

    2. Jezza resigns. Labour elects a more centrist leader.

    3. Boris loses 2024 general election.

    4. Rory Stewart becomes Con leader.

    Suddenly by 2025 we're back Lab and Con being center left and center right parties and the previous ten years seems a bit like Pam's dream in Dallas. :D

    Sounds plausible but the Labour party is so dominated by Momentum and Corbynistas now I think the centrist leader in 2 will have to come from the LDs or another new party successor to CUK.

    It should be noted though that most parties that lose power elect a more left or right wing leader respectively e.g. Hague beat Clarke in 1997, Ed Miliband beat David Miliband in 2010, Foot beat Healey in 1980, Thatcher beat Heath in 1975 etc. So Stewart probably needs to wait a bit if he does not win this time
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132

    I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls.

    Supporting immigration controls that are stronger than... what exists in their imaginations.

    Trouble is, the great unwashed have totally unrealistic ideas of how many people in this country are from abroad. Ordinary voters know fuck all about what's really going on, they think that the stories told by Farage are somehow representative of reality, instead of scumbag lies told by scumbag liars.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1140581153302335489

    Yes, because thats the 'only' issue with NI....

    God help us..

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited June 2019

    Well that depends on your definition of "centrist". I think it's about 70% of the population that supports stronger immigration controls. That's the centre-ground of British politics right there.

    You and I might not like it, but pretending it hasn't happened isn't going to win the argument with voters to change minds and move the centre ground to a position that supports immigration.

    A lot of the current talk about "centrism" sounds like a way to define what is right and proper without having to go to the effort of winning the political debate for people to support that. Extremes are bad, centrism is good, now listen to what I tell you centrism is.
    Yes, exactly. ‘Centrism’ as currently defined by Centrists is actually what the vast majority of people call ‘elitism’
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712

    You're the idiot. 16.14 million didn't.

    Non-voters don't count for either side.
    Are you as thick as you seem?

    It's correct that 46 million DIDN'T

    That doesn't mean they voted for an alternative - that's what 16.14 million people did

    #Brexithickie
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    How do Norway? Switzerland? Ukraine? Russia? Albania? Serbia? Montenegro? Or many other examples.

    If the EU won't give us a deal that is how we should handle it. Simples.
    Border controls, but that's not compatible with the promises the Leave campaign made, as it potentially kicks the civil war off again. Also in the first two of those cases, following EU regulations, but that's not compatible with the current requirements of the people who campaigned for Leave, and potentially kicks the Conservative Party civil war off again.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    GIN1138 said:

    Given Lincoln was actually assassinated (rather than just being character assassinated) I'm not sure that's going to fly for The Donald... :D

    Here's hoping.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IanB2 said:

    So Mrs M does have a legacy, after all.
    Not so much a legacy, more of an aftermath.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,813
    Betfair spread on Sanders (8.4 / 23) gone a bit crazy.
    Warren now 6.2 / 6.6.

    Persistence clearly pays off.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    JackW said:

    Not unduly surprised that a politician would be a naked careerist, although with the Rory campaign that would mean he'd be tweeting in the bath !!

    :smile:

    It is the 'naked' bit that I object to. But if we have to have it, yes, let's have the actual variety.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592

    How do Norway? Switzerland? Ukraine? Russia? Albania? Serbia? Montenegro? Or many other examples.

    If the EU won't give us a deal that is how we should handle it. Simples.
    The idea that the road from Belfast to Dublin is going to become the smugglers route of choice to getting shoddy products in to the otherwise watertight single market is really quite amusing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:

    Betfair spread on Sanders (8.4 / 23) gone a bit crazy.
    Warren now 6.2 / 6.6.

    Persistence clearly pays off.

    It was a month or so ago that I was being assured that the eventual nominee would almost certainly be one of Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke or Kamala Harris. Now two of the three shortest priced candidates are from outside that gang of four. We haven't had the first debates yet, either.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Rory 17.5 to be next leader, Gove 50.0. Bonkers.

    At first glance, they make sense - Rory will fight and Gove will not.

    But there is a big difference between that and winning.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    IanB2 said:

    So Mrs M does have a legacy, after all.

    Yes - very good point!

    1/0 was OK. 2/0 becomes an embarrassment if unanswered with one back.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137

    Are you as thick as you seem?

    It's correct that 46 million DIDN'T

    That doesn't mean they voted for an alternative - that's what 16.14 million people did

    #Brexithickie
    The number of people who still want Brexit enough to make a trip to the polling station is down to six or seven million now anyway
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Phukov said:

    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    We want an FTA.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Are you as thick as you seem?

    It's correct that 46 million DIDN'T

    That doesn't mean they voted for an alternative - that's what 16.14 million people did

    #Brexithickie
    No it isnt correct to lump in non voters it never is. It is a moronic attempt by losers to pretend they have a silent majority on their side. Idiots.

    People vote, we count the votes. Anyone who doesn't vote doesn't matter.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    HYUFD said:
    Guido is really spinning for Boris, they must be concerned.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Phukov said:

    There isn't any deal that "we" want. We don't want to be in the EU, and we don't want any of the alternatives. How the fuck can the EU give us something "we" want when "we" don't even know?
    Tough Guy!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    HYUFD said:
    The 17.4 million voters weren't ignored, three years have been devoted to giving them Brexit whilst trying not to damage the country too much. It's the 16.1 million that have been ignored.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    HYUFD said:
    They really need to be careful with this hyperbole. Project Fear did not work in the EU referendum... Have they learnt nothing?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,866

    Yes it is.

    It takes two to tango. If the EU wants a deal then they should give us one we want. If they don't, so be it, that is their choice and NI gets a hard border because they don't budge.
    The endless argument of the moron. "We don't need a hard border - technology will fix it. No I can't tell you what that technology is. No we can't wait for the technology to actually exist just get on with it. No that doesn't mean a hard border. If that does mean a hard border its their fault."

    We know how the world works. We know how the EU works and how the UK works. We cannot decide to leave the EU to better control our border, then solve the issue of an open land border with some techno-thriller fantasy solution.

    As for its their fault" that is the basic problem. Never mind the absurd suggestion that defaulting on our deal with the EU will allow us to do better deals with other countries (who presumably would definitely be able to trust the UK not to default on the deal). Its the idea that having left the EU in a way that imposes a physical border AND defaulted on the EU that the US would then do a brilliant trade deal with us.

    They cannot be clearer in Congress. No deal if we screw Ireland.

    You can sit and whine about blame. It would be our fault. Our doing. And our loss when the rest of the world treats us like a trade leper.

    Seriously, how fucking stupid are some people? You want to know why Boris is leading and why most of the others are promising they have a huge set of balls that will magically make the EU change its mind? Its in posts like the above - they do so knowing their target electorate are morons.
This discussion has been closed.