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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in that other leadership race…
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in that other leadership race…
Understandably the focus of political interest and betting is on the contest to succeed Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party, and most likely Prime Minister. This does rather overshadow the ongoing contest for the leadership of the Liberal Democrat Party, which finds itself in the rather unfamiliar position of rude health. Having had some excellent results in both Local Elections and in the recent Euro elections, Vince Cable contrasts sharply with Theresa May by leaving the role on a high, with the party polling at its best for nearly a decade, and united over the major issues of the day.
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In passing, does a private company count as a political party?
Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.
If the broadcasting market is one in which commercial companies can perform well compared to the state broadcaster then these companies have to be good at their job to be sucessfull and survive. Hindering the state provider just so that private companies can make a profit is a bad idea.
Now let's think of the startling political success of a recent political leader named Ed ....
Where's my owl ?!? ....
It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.
Any exciting conclusions from the debate last night?
Ed was one of the original Orange Bookers, and that was always something that I was in tune with. I think the Coalition years are getting distant enough for a more objective evaluation, and seen as better than the current blue and red menaces.
That said, I rather liked Jo Swinson too. She doesn't seem to have quite the same CV of achievement, but surely one has to allow for relative youth as well as maternity breaks? She has great potential, and could perhaps reach a wider audience.
Mentioning Brexit did get a rather pantomime response from the audience, but I was relieved to have a much wider discussion of issues facing the country.
All in all an enjoyable evening, and pleasing to mert @Icarus in fleshworld
Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.
...and I find ALL awards ghastly, The Brits, The Oscars , Emmys and so on and so forth. Its the so called stars congratulating themselves..
Yet it’s not a good basis for choosing a leader, and although I would be willing to give either of them a try my view is as Foxy’s that Davey is the better candidate this time. He has something to say on the big issues, economy, climate, whereas Swinson has tended to focus on less heavyweight concerns. Backing him as a trading bet makes sense as the odds are likely to narrow given that it is hard to see a knockout blow.
Perhaps another cruise is due.
Same with Bojo, him lending out votes in round 1 makes a lot of sense.
Vote lending seems a bad plan for any other candidate.
I topped up on him last night for final two and, gasp, leader.
It was the Lord Nelson.
Only low-class persons like Boris go to the Admiral Duncan.
He's also joint favourite to get fewest votes in the second round, at 2.5 (tied with Raab, whom I mentioned but decided not to back at 5).
Hunt is 2.25 to make the final two, shortest non-Boris candidate, but 17 to be next leader.
Boris to get under 120 votes is 21. Hmm.
which would make all the MP's think it was great and rush to vote for it. Then all 16 year olds were to be forced to be Boy Scouts and sing round the campfire so that the Empire would be great again.
God help us if he is the solution.
A Sir Vince aping of Collins would answer your question, sat on his bench in the Commons - "I used to be in the Labour Party until I left because of the egregiously commie Michael Foot. WIth respect to the Right Honourable Member for Islington North whilst I see that he copies the same insane policies as the Right Honourable former member for Blaenau Gwent he is barely even a smear of dog mess on a shoe compared to the intellectual prowess of the former editor of Tribune. I and indeed everyone in my party turn to the Right Honourable gentleman and say Bollocks." [long pause] "to Brexit"
The first Democratic debate will be interesting, as it seems likely the other candidates on stage will be taking shots at the absent Biden rather than her. The second debate could be a real scrap.
Does it make much of a difference this time though?
It is probably Boris but would Swinson or Davey be a terrible/great choice if it ends up as Gove or Hunt instead?
I might be missing something but there isn't an obvious difference in choice of Lib Dem leader depending on the Tories choice...
Good read from Foxy.
Lib Dem contest doesn't seem to have the same blood and thunder as a modern Tory or Labour one, no threats of resignation or factional warfare, bit too tame for the neutrals IMO!
Littlejohn 'Tone.....A Knight to remember?'
Liz.W. 'Do me a f****** favour'
The LDs should choose their Leader by tossing a coin and donate the losing Candidate to the Conservatives.
Nothing wrong by with that, but he thought that public service in the Lords would restrict his ability to do so.
And would oblige him to identify his clients...
Maybe Vince thought he should go before these "Incomers" arived and diluted Liberal Democray...?
It is always interesting to see how a private education is finessed.
Let me try.
"Ruislip and Uxbridge is local ground for Boris Johnston. His constituency is just over 10 miles away from his Slough educational roots."
No more scary camera staring please Michael.
Think Jo's approach might be more use to us.
Anyone but Boris, eh? Makes sense.
Some crap is nasty.
Some crap is ugly.
Some crap is literally a relief
Moving off the scatological, I'd argue that saying someone is 'crap' is rather one-dimensional: we are all crap at some things, and most of us are good at other things. I'd play a crap piano concerto, but I can (hopefully!) code reasonably well.
Blithely saying "He's crap!" without a "at (insert topic here)" clause probably reflects more on the person saying it than the target.
Except for Chris Grayling. He's 100% crap.
Unless we LDs win a working majority, we will have to work with other parties, or remain in opposition. I wouldn't want to be in perpetual opposition as there are too many important things to do.
A busy day ahead, so will drop by much later.
Greens 27%
CDU 24%
AfD 13%
SPD 11%
FDP 9%
Linke 8%
The SPD appear to be heading for oblivion as the Greens nick their voters.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/habeck-haengt-kramp-karrenbauer-in-kanzlerfrage-ab-16238856.html
You are left with a handful of voters, who mainly vote for much more minor crazies... like Change UK!
The 'sensible' majority would reject every single party for undefined other in a straight choice but not then not agree on who that other is.
I see Raab also lost his father at age 12, interesting how some senior politicians lost at least one parent relatively young, May and Blair too. It may add to drive
On the long shot part it is by no means guaranteed but Labour stand a decent chance at 'winning' (if winning is defined as being the main governing party) arguably saying there will be a role for the Lib Dems is the longer shot?
I'm guessing betting odds would reflect that but this site knows that isn't a perfect reflection of actual chance, so there is value in your eyes in betting on that?
This site "Sonntagsfrage", Sunday's Question "If there was an election this coming Sunday, ....", is a great summary of all german political polling.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
CDU + SPD = 35%.
Greens + CDU = 51% ie the only option now with a majority