politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile in that other leadership race…

asjohnstone said:

How many members are there?

105,480 members

Sandpit said:

Third, like, umm, the Lib Dems

So which parties do you think are first and second?

In passing, does a private company count as a political party?

Phukov said:

kinabalu said:

But it begs the same question you pose - Why?

Because the market drives up quality in spheres where competition is possible.
The BBC stifles competition.
Barriers to entry into "broadcasting" are historically low, and the consumer is the best judge of what she should consume (unlike, say, medical services).

The BBC being there by definition increases the competition for the commercial broadcasters.

If the broadcasting market is one in which commercial companies can perform well compared to the state broadcaster then these companies have to be good at their job to be sucessfull and survive. Hindering the state provider just so that private companies can make a profit is a bad idea.

I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

MikeL said:

People asking why Stewart's declared backers are so much less than his actual votes.

Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.

Good point. And the backing of the current PM and CoE would have given him a lot of confidence and explain the willingness to continue until eliminated.

IanB2 said:

MikeL said:

People asking why Stewart's declared backers are so much less than his actual votes.

Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.

Good point. And the backing of the current PM and CoE would have given him a lot of confidence and explain the willingness to continue until eliminated.

Possibly also that his voters include MPs hoping for jobs from Boris.

Torby_Fennel said:

I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.

Yes, it is hard to judge an audience at a party hustings as even these are not representative of the wider membership. Ed Davey was going down well though.

Ed was one of the original Orange Bookers, and that was always something that I was in tune with. I think the Coalition years are getting distant enough for a more objective evaluation, and seen as better than the current blue and red menaces.

That said, I rather liked Jo Swinson too. She doesn't seem to have quite the same CV of achievement, but surely one has to allow for relative youth as well as maternity breaks? She has great potential, and could perhaps reach a wider audience.

Mentioning Brexit did get a rather pantomime response from the audience, but I was relieved to have a much wider discussion of issues facing the country.

All in all an enjoyable evening, and pleasing to mert @Icarus in fleshworld

SquareRoot said:

Roger said:

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

"I'm immediately prejudiced" Says it all really.

Don't you find it even a tiny bit unsavoury the award givers giving awards to themselves?

Roger said:

SquareRoot said:

Roger said:

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

"I'm immediately prejudiced" Says it all really.

Don't you find it even a tiny bit unsavoury the award givers giving awards to themselves?

Technically, these awards are by the Queen.. Her Majesty decides, PM's can only recommend IIRC

...and I find ALL awards ghastly, The Brits, The Oscars , Emmys and so on and so forth. Its the so called stars congratulating themselves..

Icarus said:

Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

I expect you are right that the pressure to show the party can be led by a woman will swing the contest for Swinson - with the same dynamic facing Labour’s next contest.

Yet it’s not a good basis for choosing a leader, and although I would be willing to give either of them a try my view is as Foxy’s that Davey is the better candidate this time. He has something to say on the big issues, economy, climate, whereas Swinson has tended to focus on less heavyweight concerns. Backing him as a trading bet makes sense as the odds are likely to narrow given that it is hard to see a knockout blow.

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.

Did not go to the right school obviously, what a bunch of clowns they are with their Garter and their funny clubs and all awarding each other baubles to pretend they are anything other than inbred losers.

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.

Did not go to the right school obviously, what a bunch of clowns they are with their Garter and their funny clubs and all awarding each other baubles to pretend they are anything other than inbred losers.

Much the same with the Clans isn't it Malcy.

Calling up last night’s debate on All4, there’s a warning that the programme isn’t suitable for under 16s....

A plague on both their houses.

Foxy said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.

Yes, it is hard to judge an audience at a party hustings as even these are not representative of the wider membership. Ed Davey was going down well though.

Ed was one of the original Orange Bookers, and that was always something that I was in tune with. I think the Coalition years are getting distant enough for a more objective evaluation, and seen as better than the current blue and red menaces.

That said, I rather liked Jo Swinson too. She doesn't seem to have quite the same CV of achievement, but surely one has to allow for relative youth as well as maternity breaks? She has great potential, and could perhaps reach a wider audience.

Mentioning Brexit did get a rather pantomime response from the audience, but I was relieved to have a much wider discussion of issues facing the country.

All in all an enjoyable evening, and pleasing to mert @Icarus in fleshworld

Thanks Foxy for the article, very interesting. I agree Davey is the value bet (and, at 6/1, is the same price Brexit and Trump were on the day, if I remember...) but, judging from the comments, it seems like Swinson will win. Tend to agree with Malcolm though, I think she will be useless.

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.

Amazing what you can find out after a tipple with her Maj and Littlejohn at the Admiral Duncan.

Interestingly, Rory is now second favourite on Ladbrokes, at 11, to be next Con leader.

He's also joint favourite to get fewest votes in the second round, at 2.5 (tied with Raab, whom I mentioned but decided not to back at 5).

Hunt is 2.25 to make the final two, shortest non-Boris candidate, but 17 to be next leader.

Boris to get under 120 votes is 21. Hmm.

TOPPING said:

Alistair said:

If I was Rory Stewart and had, say, 40 backers in the bag I would have totally lent them out in the first round. If he bring them home in round 2 then people will be talking about only 1 thing.

Same with Bojo, him lending out votes in round 1 makes a lot of sense.

Vote lending seems a bad plan for any other candidate.

Rory for my money didn't knock it out of the park as much as I'd have liked but still proved himself the only realist and someone you look forward to hearing speak.

I topped up on him last night for final two and, gasp, leader.

I thought he was just soundbites and glossed over everything. He was going to just get May;s agreement signed after some pow - wow with Farage and unions
which would make all the MP's think it was great and rush to vote for it. Then all 16 year olds were to be forced to be Boy Scouts and sing round the campfire so that the Empire would be great again.
God help us if he is the solution.

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

According to rumour (a) what would usually be his joining of the Garter has been vetoed by the Queen and (b) he isn't very happy about it.

Did not go to the right school obviously, what a bunch of clowns they are with their Garter and their funny clubs and all awarding each other baubles to pretend they are anything other than inbred losers.

It is true alumni of Fettes normally get the Thistle.

No idea , a boot up the erse would be more appropriate though.

Sunday’s polls show Warren continuing to erode Sanders’ support in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The first Democratic debate will be interesting, as it seems likely the other candidates on stage will be taking shots at the absent Biden rather than her. The second debate could be a real scrap.

eristdoof said:

Phukov said:

kinabalu said:

But it begs the same question you pose - Why?

Because the market drives up quality in spheres where competition is possible.
The BBC stifles competition.
Barriers to entry into "broadcasting" are historically low, and the consumer is the best judge of what she should consume (unlike, say, medical services).

The BBC being there by definition increases the competition for the commercial broadcasters.

If the broadcasting market is one in which commercial companies can perform well compared to the state broadcaster then these companies have to be good at their job to be sucessfull and survive. Hindering the state provider just so that private companies can make a profit is a bad idea.

Do you know of the economic theory of crowding out?

MikeL said:

People asking why Stewart's declared backers are so much less than his actual votes.

Answer might well be that (for starters) TMay, Lidington and Hammond are all backing Stewart - and don't wish to declare it given their positions.

Quite likely, though it was true of all the candidates.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1140514262458294273

Charles said:

eristdoof said:

Phukov said:

kinabalu said:

But it begs the same question you pose - Why?

Because the market drives up quality in spheres where competition is possible.
The BBC stifles competition.
Barriers to entry into "broadcasting" are historically low, and the consumer is the best judge of what she should consume (unlike, say, medical services).

The BBC being there by definition increases the competition for the commercial broadcasters.

If the broadcasting market is one in which commercial companies can perform well compared to the state broadcaster then these companies have to be good at their job to be sucessfull and survive. Hindering the state provider just so that private companies can make a profit is a bad idea.

Do you know of the economic theory of crowding out?

Yes - it's a theory based on ideology rather than evidence.

AlastairMeeks said:

The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

Short of an influx of defections, the possible fish in their leadership pool is still very limited.

Maybe Vince thought he should go before these "Incomers" arived and diluted Liberal Democray...?

TheJezziah said:

malcolmg said:

TOPPING said:

malcolmg said:

Icarus said:

Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.

Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

Perhaps another cruise is due.

Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.

If they are 'all' crap then crap is average and only the very crap are actually below average.

Now you are splitting hairs. Crap is crap.

Dr Foxy sounds like a Greys Anatomy character.

malcolmg said:

Now you are splitting hairs. .....

"Splitting hairs" is almost a red card comment on Mike Smithson's site !!

TOPPING said:

malcolmg said:

Icarus said:

Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.

Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

Perhaps another cruise is due.

Please don't try deter the Site's very own Malcolm Tucker. Site wouldn't be the same without him.

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1140518855413944321

TheJezziah said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

Labour clearly outbid the LibDems on the crazy stakes. Are the Tories about to outbid Labour? A vaguely sensible Lib Dem leader might well ‘clean up’ those who Jezza and Bozza don’t reach.

Charles said:

Roger said:

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

Indeed. Tony wanted to focus his talents on making money for himself and his family

Nothing wrong by with that, but he thought that public service in the Lords would restrict his ability to do so.

And would oblige him to identify his clients...

Wr're talking knighthood not HEREDITARY baronetcies like the Thatchers

TheJezziah said:

malcolmg said:

TOPPING said:

malcolmg said:

Icarus said:

Good to meet Dr Foxy at the hustings on Saturday. Agree with his comments though way the meeting was organised with questions submitted before hand and usually read by the chair didn't really challenge the candidates. A Question Time approach with comments from audience members might have been better.

Both candidates good. swung towards Davey during the meeting but am probably going to vote for Jo. Davey cant help being a white male but think there is merit in having a woman candidate and Jo seemed to have some passion which I hope she can bring to the fore in a general election.

The Lib Dems Rory, full of soundbites and as much use as a chocolate teapot, she is crap.

Malcolm as far as I can work out for the past few weeks you have determined that everything and everyone is "crap". Such anger and negativity can't be good for your health.

Perhaps another cruise is due.

Unfortunately Topping , they are all crap , hard to see any of them with a modicum of skill, principles or decency. I defy anyone to name me any decent current politician apart from Ken Clarke or Joanna Cherry.

If they are 'all' crap then crap is average and only the very crap are actually below average.

Having had a lifetime's experience of crap, and having had to change the little 'uns nappies until recently, I can assure PBes that there is a near-infinite range of crap.

Some crap is nasty.
Some crap is ugly.
Some crap is literally a relief

Moving off the scatological, I'd argue that saying someone is 'crap' is rather one-dimensional: we are all crap at some things, and most of us are good at other things. I'd play a crap piano concerto, but I can (hopefully!) code reasonably well.

Blithely saying "He's crap!" without a "at (insert topic here)" clause probably reflects more on the person saying it than the target.

Except for Chris Grayling. He's 100% crap.

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I'll be voting for Ed Davey but, so far, I think I'm the only active member of my local branch to declare for him. All of my closest friends in the local party are backing Jo Swinson.

It was a very close call for me though and, truth be told, I'll be equally happy with either outcome.

Yes, it is hard to judge an audience at a party hustings as even these are not representative of the wider membership. Ed Davey was going down well though.

Ed was one of the original Orange Bookers, and that was always something that I was in tune with. I think the Coalition years are getting distant enough for a more objective evaluation, and seen as better than the current blue and red menaces.

That said, I rather liked Jo Swinson too. She doesn't seem to have quite the same CV of achievement, but surely one has to allow for relative youth as well as maternity breaks? She has great potential, and could perhaps reach a wider audience.

Mentioning Brexit did get a rather pantomime response from the audience, but I was relieved to have a much wider discussion of issues facing the country.

All in all an enjoyable evening, and pleasing to mert @Icarus in fleshworld

I resigned from the LibDems because of the orangebookery during the coalition - pro austerity, private good, public bad etc, neoliberalism. I don't agree with that at all and I suspect the majority of LibDem members don't either. But they might not know of Davey's leanings that way. I hope he doesn't get the leadership.

Politics is about compromise, and I think Davey did well in government as one of the more effective ministers. His comments on fracking were interesting, in that he was under great pressure to allow a free for all by the Tories, so did permit it but with sufficient environmental and safety regulations that it is effectively a moratorium. I agree with him that now we should no longer be doing it because renewables are so cost effective and greener.

Unless we LDs win a working majority, we will have to work with other parties, or remain in opposition. I wouldn't want to be in perpetual opposition as there are too many important things to do.

A busy day ahead, so will drop by much later.

Roger said:

Charles said:

Roger said:

Thanks. An informative header. I'm immediately prejudiced against Sir Ed Davey because of his acceptance of a poltical honour. It tells you rather more about the person's character than anything he might have done as an MP. John Redwood and Bill Cash's recent honours havent helped but I note Tony Blair whose achievments eclipse all of them is still plain 'Tony'.

Indeed. Tony wanted to focus his talents on making money for himself and his family

Nothing wrong by with that, but he thought that public service in the Lords would restrict his ability to do so.

And would oblige him to identify his clients...

Wr're talking knighthood not HEREDITARY baronetcies like the Thatchers

I agree with Roger that Sir Ed Davey has a bad ring to it. Can’t think of what he actually did to deserve it.

Jonathan said:

TheJezziah said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The Lib Dems are making the same mistake in 2019 that they made in 2015, picking their leader before they know who they’re up against.

Always felt Tim Farron had the rug completely pulled from underneath him by Labour choosing Corbyn, if they had gone for a New Labour type he would have cleaned up.

Labour clearly outbid the LibDems on the crazy stakes. Are the Tories about to outbid Labour? A vaguely sensible Lib Dem leader might well ‘clean up’ those who Jezza and Bozza don’t reach.

Why can't the Lib Dems choose a looney as well?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1140261425887272960

Is there a betting market on the next leader but one yet?

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1140516308058103808

That's rory's saving grace then. He may not make it through the next ballot, but he'll get more than Raab and not come last.

I think Javid comes last, Raab has already picked up Stephen Metcalfe's endorsement over the weekend and will get some McVey and Leadsom voters, Javid has had no new endorsements and hard yo see where his extra votes come from if Hancock's voters are splitting between Boris and Rory. Maybe Harper but I would have thought his backers will go to Stewart, Gove and Hunt

YBarddCwsc said:

" Ed Davey was on home turf, having been born and schooled in Nottinghamshire with a backstory of being orphaned at the age of 11..."

It is always interesting to see how a private education is finessed.

Let me try.

"Ruislip and Uxbridge is local ground for Boris Johnston. His constituency is just over 10 miles away from his Slough educational roots."

Boris was not orphaned at 11 though unlike Davey.

I see Raab also lost his father at age 12, interesting how some senior politicians lost at least one parent relatively young, May and Blair too. It may add to drive

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1140520078364020737

Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.

Roger said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1140520078364020737

Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.

Roger said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1140520078364020737

Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.

It must hurt to be Gove. All those years positioning himself as the sensible Brexiteer blown away.

Scott_P said:

Assuming BoZo makes it, essentially unchallenged, the party are going to spend the next few years asking "Why didn't we pick Rory..."

Well, it would make a change from asking themselves why they didn't pick Kenneth Clarke.

Jonathan said:

Roger said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1140520078364020737

Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.

Roger said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1140520078364020737

Gove is a mess. All over the place. Nonsensical interview with Humphrys. The coke accusations have completely thrown him. I was working with someone shortly after he was exposed by the Sun and he said he couldn't think clearly. He was obsessed that that was all anyone was thinking about.

It must hurt to be Gove. All those years positioning himself as the sensible Brexiteer blown away.

To be fair there are less challenging positions to aim for.

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

" Ed Davey was on home turf, having been born and schooled in Nottinghamshire with a backstory of being orphaned at the age of 11..."

It is always interesting to see how a private education is finessed.

Let me try.

"Ruislip and Uxbridge is local ground for Boris Johnston. His constituency is just over 10 miles away from his Slough educational roots."

Boris was not orphaned at 11 though unlike Davey.

I see Raab also lost his father at age 12, interesting how some senior politicians lost at least one parent relatively young, May and Blair too. It may add to drive

Perceptive point.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1140516308058103808

That's rory's saving grace then. He may not make it through the next ballot, but he'll get more than Raab and not come last.

I think Javid comes last, Raab has already picked up Stephen Metcalfe's endorsement over the weekend and will get some McVey and Leadsom voters, Javid has had no new endorsements and hard yo see where his extra votes come from if Hancock's voters are splitting between Boris and Rory. Maybe Harper but I would have thought his backers will go to Stewart, Gove and Hunt

"I didn't come last in the second round of the conservative leader's campaign" is not really a great selling point.