politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: March 6th 2014
Wye on Ashford (Conservative Defence)
Last election to council (2011): Conservatives 30, Independents 6, Labour 5, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 17)
Last election in ward (2011): Conservative 392 (39%), Ashford Independent 318 (32%), Labour 112 (11%), United Kingdom Independence Party 97 (10%), Liberal Democrats 89 (9%).
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Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.0
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Oh and second :-)0
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Well I know that UKIP have at least two votes in Ramsbottom ;-)0
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Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.Richard_Tyndall said:Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.
The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.
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Yes RT, should be interesting tonight.AveryLP said:
Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.Richard_Tyndall said:Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.
The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.
Are you going to add to the pot, Avery?0 -
Osborne is uselessAveryLP said:
Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.Richard_Tyndall said:Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.
The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.
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Brighton version of a 'there is no money left' note:
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/11059763.Council_gives_i360_green_light_with___36m_government_loan/?ref=var_00 -
Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.0
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This is good stuff:CarlottaVance said:especially for malcolmg.....
Brian Monteith eschews the usual proprietaries over intruding into the private grief of others - in this case, Labour in Scotland:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2014/03/brian-monteith-now-its-labours-turn-to-take-the-fight-to-the-nationalists.htmlIt has to be remembered that the long term trend for Scottish MPs is that thanks to devolution it will become harder to attain high office as they are unlikely to be chosen by future governments to populate ministerial responsibilities that are covered by devolved administrations in their own constituencies. The example of Labour’s John Reid being Health Secretary is probably the last and should not be expected again – the same goes for many other departments such as Education, Transport and Agriculture.
But the final sentence is a cracker:
That being the case, and with many items of legislation under discussion at Westminster that do not apply outside England, Scots Labour MPs have seen their influence and opportunities for experience wane to the point where they often feel they are only lobby fodder. This low self-esteem is fed and evidenced by their relative invisibility in the Scottish media. Just what do they do to justify their salary and expenses when their cousins at the Scottish Parliament are dealing with health, education, transport, culture, – and much, much more?... giving Conservatives an incentive to cut a deal and win seats in Perthshire and beyond.
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Fox News General Election 2016
•Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
•Chris Christie (R) 38%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
•Jeb Bush (R) 38%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
•Ted Cruz (R) 36%
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Better news for Jeb's son George P Bush as he wins the GOP nomination for Texas Land Commissioner
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573553/Babys-ballot-George-P-Bush-votes-son-Prescott-easily-wins-Republican-nomination-political-seat.html0 -
Many voters were alienated by Blairite policies and Scottish MPs preference for Westminster.
The failure of the first referendum on Scottish devolution in 1979 caused acrimony, bitterness and disillusion among its supporters. Jim Turnbull’s cartoon in the Glasgow Herald the day after the result was announced, depicting the Scottish lion cowering in a cage with the door wide open and mumbling “I’m feart”, exactly captured the mood of despondency and recrimination in the Yes camp.
http://www.newstatesman.com/2014/02/road-independence0 -
http://www.newstatesman.com/2014/02/road-independenceStuart_Dickson said:Many voters were alienated by Blairite policies and Scottish MPs preference for Westminster.
The failure of the first referendum on Scottish devolution in 1979 caused acrimony, bitterness and disillusion among its supporters. Jim Turnbull’s cartoon in the Glasgow Herald the day after the result was announced, depicting the Scottish lion cowering in a cage with the door wide open and mumbling “I’m feart”, exactly captured the mood of despondency and recrimination in the Yes camp.
Thanks. There's a lot more in that piece. Whch is by Tom Devine - one of the best modern historians of Scotland.
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I think the Hamiltons prefer used notes to bouncing cheques!
Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.AveryLP said:
Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.Richard_Tyndall said:Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.
The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.0 -
The best bit of that report:Carola said:Brighton version of a 'there is no money left' note:
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/11059763.Council_gives_i360_green_light_with___36m_government_loan/?ref=var_0And in an added bonus the council would receive 50% of any extra cash created if the attraction does better than expected, to repay the loan early.
As they say, LOL.0 -
Once again depressing to see all the councils are dominated by their ruling parties, I prefer things be a little closer so the administrations have to worry about potentially losing their grip. I'll take a chance and say two will not be won by the defending party. With Labour not standing maybe UKIP haev a chance in Burnham, the rest have so many candidate standing without local knowledge hard to judge.
Funny to see the Ramsbottom one had a tied vote decided by drawing lots not long ago. What must it feel like to lose out in such circumstances?0 -
Agreed. Seems like giving UKIP a free run at the anti-Tory vote, as well as siphoning off some of the former Tory vote.foxinsoxuk said:I think the Hamiltons prefer used notes to bouncing cheques!
Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.AveryLP said:
Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.Richard_Tyndall said:Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.
The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.
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Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to nine points: CON 31%, LAB 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%0
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Mr. P, the polls are naturally bouncy. We saw this back with the first trackers during conference season. Not worth getting excited or depressed by a single poll.0
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YouGov is pretty erratic at the moment!0
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Fun fact, Ethandune was apparently what they used to think was the site of what is now called the Battle of Edington, also in the area, where Alfred beat the viking king Guthrum, helping to pave the way for the peace that established the Danelaw and the Wessex/Mercia boundary, and thus the existenc eof England itself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Edington0 -
Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.
Definitely very Chelsea in some of the villages, but also definitely no EU migration other than French bankers with second homes. It's all barley barons up there, so they don't need Poles to come in and pick stuff like they do down on the Fens.0 -
No results in yet?
Putin would have this sorted well before 22:05.0 -
Welcome to PB, Mr. Jericho.RedStarJericho said:Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.
Definitely very Chelsea in some of the villages, but also definitely no EU migration other than French bankers with second homes. It's all barley barons up there, so they don't need Poles to come in and pick stuff like they do down on the Fens.
I'd get those walls looked at by a structural engineer.
There's a lot of posters with loud trumpets around.0 -
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I bought a tombola ticket at the last fund raiser, Mike.MikeK said:
Yes RT, should be interesting tonight.AveryLP said:
Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.Richard_Tyndall said:Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.
The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.
Are you going to add to the pot, Avery?
Won a lovely home baked fruit cake.
Delicious.
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The US and EU are being real blowhards over Crimea:
The EU and US have joined Ukraine's government in condemning as "illegal" a move by the Crimea region to set up a referendum to endorse joining Russia.
If they want to join Russia who the hell are we to stop them ?
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An unique finding, Mr. Brooke.Alanbrooke said:
Osborne is uselessAveryLP said:
Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.Richard_Tyndall said:Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.
The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.
Have you thought of motoring over to Leamington to get your research findings protected?
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As they say, LOL.JosiasJessop said:
The best bit of that report:Carola said:Brighton version of a 'there is no money left' note:
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/11059763.Council_gives_i360_green_light_with___36m_government_loan/?ref=var_0And in an added bonus the council would receive 50% of any extra cash created if the attraction does better than expected, to repay the loan early.
From what I've read - which isn't much tbh, as I worry I'll get an attack of the DailyMailies - they'll need over a thousand visitors a day. Every day. Arf.0 -
kle4 Apart from maybe Paul Ryan, Christie still polls best of the GOP top tier0
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I think its the precedent of Russia moving troops around russian speaking areas in other countries and then gracefully accepting their wish to join russia that the west wishes to avoid. That's fair enough. Crimea does seem to want to be Russian, but although Russia has at least not been violent about this, having Russian forces preemptively pretty much take control before the area takes the decision to formally be russian is diplomatically the wrong order. No-one will make too much of a stink about it, so it's just making a point about not liking the outcome, in uch the way Russia expressed its dislike of how things went down in the west of the country.Pulpstar said:The US and EU are being real blowhards over Crimea:
The EU and US have joined Ukraine's government in condemning as "illegal" a move by the Crimea region to set up a referendum to endorse joining Russia.
If they want to join Russia who the hell are we to stop them ?
There is nothing wrong about the west commenting upon it one way or another, just as Russia is free to comment upon things the west gets up to.
Found Henry Kissenger's points about this whole thing a bit contradictory in truth. He says
1. Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.
2. Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it last came up.
3. Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people.
among other things, but 1 and 3 are not universally compatible with 2. It might be prudent for them to choose those options, so as to be free to choose without outright pissing off Russia, but what if there free government expressing the will of the people wanted to join NATO? Then his whole plan falls apart.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html0 -
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I'm actually hoping for some low turnout landslides here, as I need to get to bed early. Come on people!0
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Labour Majority=2.46
No Overall majority = 2.48
CROSSOVEEEEEER LOL0 -
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That dashed sentimental attachment to democracy! It'll be his 'Downfall'.AveryLP said:
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Say what you like about McTernan, but at least he is man enough to make some predictions, eg:
IndyRef = NO
Caithness and Sutherland = LAB GAIN from LD
North East Fife = CON GAIN from LD
'John McTernan: What next for Scots after No vote?'... The political classes only have so much attention. For them, the referendum is over. A done deal. It’s going down. The question is what’s next?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-mcternan-what-next-for-scots-after-no-vote-1-3331737
This may seem harsh, particularly to the voters who have yet to cast a single ballot, but it’s how all markets work – even political ones. They deal in futures, and after a certain point the future is priced and the circus moves on. That’s where we are. Independence is dead, long live Devo.
... While debate rages within the SNP about their future direction, the 2015 general election comes round. Here is where the Liberal Democrats pay the iron price. They formed a government with Scotland’s mortal enemy – the Conservative Party. And in a bitter irony the Tories stand to be the biggest winners. In Aberdeenshire, Gordon, North East Fife and the Borders they stand to gain from Lib Dem pain.
The Tories will lose the 2015 general election, but – at least in Scotland – they may win seats, doubling, tripling or even quadrupling the size of their parliamentary group. And for those who think Labour have maxed out the number of Scottish seats they hold there will be the surprise gain of Caithness and Sutherland. A long-term Labour seat returning to the fold. Plus the outside chance that increasingly urban Inverness will drop the king of cuts – Danny Alexander – and go Labour again.
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Basil is apoplectic with rage. Those goalposts feel very heavy tonight.Scott_P said:Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to nine points: CON 31%, LAB 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
http://th00.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/i/2010/181/1/a/Mad_Squirrel_by_KKaju.png0 -
It is the work ethic, McDivvie.Theuniondivvie said:
That dashed sentimental attachment to democracy! It'll be his 'Downfall'.AveryLP said:
Just look at what Volodya can achieve in a single day.
The Autonomous Republic of Crimea has formed its own bodies of power independent from the authorities in Ukraine’s capital Kiev, as follows from a resolution adopted at Thursday’s urgent full-scale meeting of the autonomy’s legislature.
According to the Crimean parliament’s press-service, the autonomy has established its own ministries of justice, internal affairs, emergency situations, industrial policies, fuel and energy, and information and mass communications.
Crimea has also formed its own prosecutors’ offices, security service, customs, tax and penitentiary services and also social funds independent from Ukraine.
“The resolution was adopted with the aim to improve the management of the social and economic development of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, optimize the executive bodies of power, guarantee the rights and freedoms of the autonomy’s residents, ethnic and civic accord, law, order and public security, as well as effective and well-coordinated operation of the executive authorities,” the statement runs.
Given the same time, Eck wouldn't have reached the first green in regulation.0 -
Re the Burnham by election , I doubt that UKIP will be even close . Their candidate had to be imported from Kings Lynn and the conservatives have a strong local candidate0
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Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.0
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The local paper Bury Times has a live blog on the Ramsbottom by election . Early comments say it is very close between Lab and Con .0
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As predicted with my report from the constituency, the Ramsbottom result is very close. I hope my little effort for the cause helps Sarah become the newest member of Bury council.0
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http://www.burytimes.co.uk/news/11059769.Ramsbottom_by_election/?ref=var_0MarkSenior said:The local paper Bury Times has a live blog on the Ramsbottom by election . Early comments say it is very close between Lab and Con .
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Ashford Wye is an Ashford Ind gain from Con
Ash Ind 323 Con 240 UKIP 97 Green 55 Lab 22 LD 130 -
I had a very congenial evening in a pub full of Portuguese workers near Burnham a few years ago, but it may have been a bit further East towards Fakenham.
No LD either, though not far from Norman Lambs constituency.RedStarJericho said:Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.
Definitely very Chelsea in some of the villages, but also definitely no EU migration other than French bankers with second homes. It's all barley barons up there, so they don't need Poles to come in and pick stuff like they do down on the Fens.
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Two pensioners walked up to me in the street and told me they only remembered to vote when they saw me wearing two Labour stickers as I walked past. They happily told me they voted Labour. If Sarah wins by two votes It woz me wot won it.MarkSenior said:The local paper Bury Times has a live blog on the Ramsbottom by election . Early comments say it is very close between Lab and Con .
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'Sal' surely if she's the Labour candidate, 'pouter.compouter2 said:As predicted with my report from the constituency, the Ramsbottom result is very close. I hope my little effort for the cause helps Sarah become the newest member of Bury council.
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Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.0
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Does Russia want an alliance of trust with us? We're hardly helping to create one either, but it takes two to tango.AveryLP said:
I wouldn't go so far as brilliant. Dimbleby allowed him to ramble on for ever.BobaFett said:Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.
But his key point, that the west should be developing an alliance of trust with Russia, was sound and well put.
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Tory leader Cllr Iain Gartside says he thinks his party may have edged it or that there may be a recount0
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Having been campaigning with her today, she would make a fine councillor. Also her first time at standing at an election.AveryLP said:
'Sal' surely if she's the Labour candidate, 'pouter.compouter2 said:As predicted with my report from the constituency, the Ramsbottom result is very close. I hope my little effort for the cause helps Sarah become the newest member of Bury council.
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The way he destroyed DavidA's argument was impressive thoughAveryLP said:
I wouldn't go so far as brilliant. Dimbleby allowed him to ramble on for ever.BobaFett said:Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.
But his key point, that the west should be developing an alliance of trust with Russia, was sound and well put.
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LD 13. From 89. Oh dear.MarkSenior said:Ashford Wye is an Ashford Ind gain from Con
Ash Ind 323 Con 240 UKIP 97 Green 55 Lab 22 LD 130 -
Scottish Rouble - you know it makes sense.0
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Bury turnout a decent 32.56 % overall but 1249 postal votes returned out of 1900 around 65%0
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Not Rachel Reeves, the far more charming and human Liz Kendall:
http://www.lizkendall.org/Freggles said:Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.
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The Labour vote fell even more than the Lib DemStuart_Dickson said:
LD 13. From 89. Oh dear.MarkSenior said:Ashford Wye is an Ashford Ind gain from Con
Ash Ind 323 Con 240 UKIP 97 Green 55 Lab 22 LD 130 -
Not another recount, cable ties at the ready.bigjohnowls said:Tory leader Cllr Iain Gartside says he thinks his party may have edged it or that there may be a recount
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Lab 22 from 112. Almost as bad a drop percentage wise.Stuart_Dickson said:
LD 13. From 89. Oh dear.MarkSenior said:Ashford Wye is an Ashford Ind gain from Con
Ash Ind 323 Con 240 UKIP 97 Green 55 Lab 22 LD 13
UKIP 97 from 97. Can't fault the consistency I guess.0 -
I am certain Russia won't vote for a return to communism after its taste of 'free' market economy.kle4 said:
Does Russia want an alliance of trust with us? We're hardly helping to create one either, but it takes two to tango.AveryLP said:
I wouldn't go so far as brilliant. Dimbleby allowed him to ramble on for ever.BobaFett said:Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.
But his key point, that the west should be developing an alliance of trust with Russia, was sound and well put.
It is an immensely proud, strong and self-reliant country which is paradoxically fascinated by the West. If the West shows rather than tells, and is patient and humble, Russia will adopt and imitate. But for each two steps forward there will be one back.
As Heseltine suggested, building trust is a twenty year goal not an overnight tactic.0 -
Dr. Sox
I regret that it is very much Rachel.foxinsoxuk said:Not Rachel Reeves, the far more charming and human Liz Kendall:
http://www.lizkendall.org/Freggles said:Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.
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From Bury Times "I sound like a broken record, but all indications are that it is too close to call. Several Councillors think there may be a recount".0
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The Purple Columnist @PurpleColumnist 9m
RECOUNT EXPECTED in Ramsbottom (Bury). Too close to call.
Lab Cllr for local area has admitted UKIP is taking votes equally off Lab and Con.0 -
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"Tories seem confident. Cllr bevan just raised his eyebrows at me and smiled"..booooooo!0
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Oh dear!
She does rather remind me of the disembodied voice that warns us to "mind the gap" when travelling on the circle line.
But perhaps that is the attraction for Sunil!AveryLP said:Dr. Sox
I regret that it is very much Rachel.foxinsoxuk said:Not Rachel Reeves, the far more charming and human Liz Kendall:
http://www.lizkendall.org/Freggles said:Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.
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Looks like my two pensioners weren't enough to win it. Tories have won in Ramsbottom.0
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My sympathies, compouter.compouter2 said:Looks like my two pensioners weren't enough to win it. Tories have won in Ramsbottom.
At least you can take comfort that the polls indicated otherwise.0 -
It was quite enjoyable all the same.AveryLP said:
My sympathies, compouter.compouter2 said:Looks like my two pensioners weren't enough to win it. Tories have won in Ramsbottom.
At least you can take comfort that the polls indicated otherwise.0 -
Carola to dine on turtle soup.Richard_Nabavi said:Well, here's a headline worthy of Night Hawks at TSE's best:
http://tinyurl.com/mcs2r9o0 -
Seems that Labour have held Nottingham Clifton with a majority of around 150 . A good result for them as Conservatives had an easier task there than in Ramsbottom0
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Any figures yet?compouter2 said:Looks like my two pensioners weren't enough to win it. Tories have won in Ramsbottom.
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Top spinning going on at Ramsbottom:
Mike Connolly - Labour - It is very close
Ian Bevan - Tory - We are well ahead0 -
Bit of a back track from the Tories "Tory leader Cllr Gartside tells me he thinks they have won. Says if there is a recount it will be in the Tories favour". They were saying they were well ahead ten minutes ago. Result imminent.
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Tories with 350 majority in Ramsbottom.0
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Using the Monte Carlo through Dickie Davies formula that means there is a 750% chance of a Tory majority of 390 or more.0
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Nottingham
Lab 1,179
Con 1,025
UKIP 536
Bus-Pass Elvis Party 67
LD 560 -
In 2008 the Conservative majority was 1,138AveryLP said:
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From 10th April 1982, The Buggles with "Lenny":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JYeveXiGH0&0 -
Romsbottom
Con 1398 Lab 1033 UKIP 351 Green157 LibDem 380 -
Ramsbottom result:
Tory 1398
Lab 1033
Ukip 351
Green 157
Lib Dem 380 -
A recount with a majority of 350 votes in a council ward???0
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There has not been any recount.0
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Not a bad result for the Tories in a place like a Nottingham.AndreaParma_82 said:Nottingham
Lab 1,179
Con 1,025
UKIP 536
Bus-Pass Elvis Party 67
LD 560 -
There was no recount. Cannot see how anyone could say that was close and both parties were talking of a recount about twenty minutes ago.AndyJS said:A recount with a majority of 350 votes in a council ward???
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Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 5m
Clifton North result for Nottingham City Council: LAB 41.2% (-9.7), CON 35.8% (-13.3), #UKIP 18.7% (+18.7), BUS-PASS ELVIS 2.3%, LDEM 2.0%.0 -
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I doubt that the Conservatives will be whinging about the number of postal votes in Bury tonight .0
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I'm off to bed. Nite all.0
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Congrats to the Tories on Bury - very impressive postal vote effort there and a striking outcome. I was briefly involved in the Clifton one (by way of returning the favour of people who'd helped canvassing in Broxtowe). The ward felt like the less Guardian/Telegraph bits of Broxtowe, right down to the tram construction chaos plus a long street of houses largely evacuated for environmental cladding. UKIP's candidate was a local shopkeeper with a big on-street stand and getting a good personal vote. Labour's result is good for a split ward, especially as the reason for the election wasn't great (the sole Labour councillor in the ward had apparently just decided to call it a day). Embarrassing LibDem result - beaten by Elvis!
As for YouGov - yeah, whatever. We're ahead by 5-6, +/- noise, with nothing genuinely happening at the moment.0 -
In addition to the Westminster seats UKIP "won" in the 2013 local elections, they also came close in:
Eastleigh (LD)
Folkestone and Hythe (Con)
Harwich and North Essex (Con)
Northampton North (Con)
South Norfolk (Con)
North Norfolk (LD)
Lewes (LD)
Basildon and Billericay (Con)
http://www.columnist.org.uk/2014/03/02/revealed-the-nineteen-constituencies-ukip-won-or-nearly-won-in-2013/0 -
Just how low can the Lib Dems go?
http://redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/red-rag-lib-dems-hit-new-low-beaten-by.html0
