@NickP, the current polls are not just noise, they are in fact an indication that swing back is now happening in the run up to the next GE on the back of the economic recovery. This should worry the Labour Leadership a lot more than it appears to be doing right now. Put simple, the Labour party has simple never managed to build up or sustain the kind of polling leads that indicates or will even lead to an electoral mood that wants to turn out at the polling booths for a change of Government at the next GE. And neither has the Labour Leader or his Shadow Chancellor impressed the electorate enough to shift either David Cameron's lead in the Leadership/PM ratings or on economic competence.
While some have talked of a vote-less economic recovery for this Government, or the fact that it hasn't impacted on Labour's continuing but shrinking lead in the polls. What exactly does that mean? To me, its not so much an indication of this Government might fail to benefit from the economic recovery, but more about the fact that there is a real risk of an apathetic turnout at the next GE as a result of a healthy recovery vs the Labour stick about austerity. And that would be far more of a danger to the current Labour Opposition than the current Government incumbents. The polls maybe be indicating a Labour lead, but they are not showing any real drive or enthusiasm for a change of Government or economic direction. Delve deeper into the poll findings, and we see the economic competence polling favouring Cameron/Osborne, and their lead is widening as the good economic news continues to roll in.
Pt2 @NickP, It really is worth noting how Labour led the SNP in the polls up here in Scotland after the last GE in the run up to the Holyrood elections, and while Alex Salmond left Ian Gray in his dust when it came to their personal ratings. And then look at what the result was after a short campaign on the back of a well flagged up and booked election date without four years of media hype or uncertainty leading to any excitement of an early election being called. And this happened during the recession and without any continuously steady economic good news rolling in month after month up here in Scotland at the time! The current polls are not just noise right now, and there is something genuine happening, Labour's lead is gradually shrinking even without the imminent threat or any media hype about an imminent and early GE as the economy keeps on recovering.
PB has been far too focussed on the failure of the boundary changes and 'Labour's' inherent electoral advantages while forgetting to pay enough attention to voter turnout at the next GE. I have waded through reams of criticism of why David Cameron failed to gain a majority on the back of those years of polling leads while in Opposition, often totally ignoring the fact that he took a party from less than 200 MP's to damn near a majority. But just look at GE voter turn out in those intervening years since Blair won that historic victory after 18 years of Tory Governance back in 1997.
There is no way the next GE will match the turnout of 1992 or 1997 going by the records of the last decade, but does anyone think it will match or surpass the turnout of 2010 on the current polling evidence? There will be a GE next May, and I don't think that either Ed Miliband or Ed Balls have done enough to produce a turnout that will see a change of Government under the current economic narrative. Throw in a decisive No in the Scottish Indy Referendum where the current Coalition have led the charge to keep the Union together, and then add in the appalling record of the Labour lead administration in the Welsh assembly. And apathy for another Labour Government running the country anywhere in the UK may beat the anti Tory vote so often talked about on this site.
Its a shortened form/slang version of Alex. Despite my best efforts, my first two son's have had their very Scottish first names which both double as Clan surnames shortened in a similar fashion. But not the third son who has a predominantly Gaelic forename that didn't allow this to happen.
No to any of those suggestions, just suffering a rather nasty dose of flu right now that sees me back up very late with a lemsip. Like OGH, I used to post nocturnally far more often a few years ago, I suffered a slipped disc and had problems sleeping with the pain for long periods without a break to ease the discomfort. Peter from Putney was also a nocturnal poster back then, and we used to try to make it a bit of a fun competition to disappear before OGH appeared during the middle of the night to post an early morning article.
No to any of those suggestions, just suffering a rather nasty dose of flu right now that sees me back up very late with a lemsip. Like OGH, I used to post nocturnally far more often a few years ago, I suffered a slipped disc and had problems sleeping with the pain for long periods without a break to ease the discomfort. Peter from Putney was also a nocturnal poster back then, and we used to try to make it a bit of a fun competition to disappear before OGH appeared during the middle of the night to post an early morning article.
Comments
While some have talked of a vote-less economic recovery for this Government, or the fact that it hasn't impacted on Labour's continuing but shrinking lead in the polls. What exactly does that mean? To me, its not so much an indication of this Government might fail to benefit from the economic recovery, but more about the fact that there is a real risk of an apathetic turnout at the next GE as a result of a healthy recovery vs the Labour stick about austerity. And that would be far more of a danger to the current Labour Opposition than the current Government incumbents. The polls maybe be indicating a Labour lead, but they are not showing any real drive or enthusiasm for a change of Government or economic direction. Delve deeper into the poll findings, and we see the economic competence polling favouring Cameron/Osborne, and their lead is widening as the good economic news continues to roll in.
PB has been far too focussed on the failure of the boundary changes and 'Labour's' inherent electoral advantages while forgetting to pay enough attention to voter turnout at the next GE. I have waded through reams of criticism of why David Cameron failed to gain a majority on the back of those years of polling leads while in Opposition, often totally ignoring the fact that he took a party from less than 200 MP's to damn near a majority. But just look at GE voter turn out in those intervening years since Blair won that historic victory after 18 years of Tory Governance back in 1997.
There is no way the next GE will match the turnout of 1992 or 1997 going by the records of the last decade, but does anyone think it will match or surpass the turnout of 2010 on the current polling evidence? There will be a GE next May, and I don't think that either Ed Miliband or Ed Balls have done enough to produce a turnout that will see a change of Government under the current economic narrative. Throw in a decisive No in the Scottish Indy Referendum where the current Coalition have led the charge to keep the Union together, and then add in the appalling record of the Labour lead administration in the Welsh assembly. And apathy for another Labour Government running the country anywhere in the UK may beat the anti Tory vote so often talked about on this site.
cheers