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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: March 6th 2014

SystemSystem Posts: 11,698
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: March 6th 2014

Wye on Ashford (Conservative Defence)
Last election to council (2011): Conservatives 30, Independents 6, Labour 5, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 17)
Last election in ward (2011): Conservative 392 (39%), Ashford Independent 318 (32%), Labour 112 (11%), United Kingdom Independence Party 97 (10%), Liberal Democrats 89 (9%).

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Comments

  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,971
    Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,971
    Oh and second :-)
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Well I know that UKIP have at least two votes in Ramsbottom ;-)
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.

    Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.

    The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.

  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.

    Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.

    The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.

    Yes RT, should be interesting tonight.
    Are you going to add to the pot, Avery?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.

    Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.

    The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.

    Osborne is useless
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Brighton version of a 'there is no money left' note:

    http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/11059763.Council_gives_i360_green_light_with___36m_government_loan/?ref=var_0
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    CarlottaVance said:

    especially for malcolmg.....

    Brian Monteith eschews the usual proprietaries over intruding into the private grief of others - in this case, Labour in Scotland:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2014/03/brian-monteith-now-its-labours-turn-to-take-the-fight-to-the-nationalists.html

    This is good stuff:
    It has to be remembered that the long term trend for Scottish MPs is that thanks to devolution it will become harder to attain high office as they are unlikely to be chosen by future governments to populate ministerial responsibilities that are covered by devolved administrations in their own constituencies. The example of Labour’s John Reid being Health Secretary is probably the last and should not be expected again – the same goes for many other departments such as Education, Transport and Agriculture.

    That being the case, and with many items of legislation under discussion at Westminster that do not apply outside England, Scots Labour MPs have seen their influence and opportunities for experience wane to the point where they often feel they are only lobby fodder. This low self-esteem is fed and evidenced by their relative invisibility in the Scottish media. Just what do they do to justify their salary and expenses when their cousins at the Scottish Parliament are dealing with health, education, transport, culture, – and much, much more?
    But the final sentence is a cracker:
    ... giving Conservatives an incentive to cut a deal and win seats in Perthshire and beyond.
    :)

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,113
    Fox News General Election 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    •Chris Christie (R) 38%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
    •Jeb Bush (R) 38%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
    •Ted Cruz (R) 36%
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,113
    Better news for Jeb's son George P Bush as he wins the GOP nomination for Texas Land Commissioner
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573553/Babys-ballot-George-P-Bush-votes-son-Prescott-easily-wins-Republican-nomination-political-seat.html
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Many voters were alienated by Blairite policies and Scottish MPs preference for Westminster.
    The failure of the first referendum on Scottish devolution in 1979 caused acri­mony, bitterness and disillusion among its supporters. Jim Turnbull’s cartoon in the Glasgow Herald the day after the result was announced, depicting the Scottish lion cowering in a cage with the door wide open and mumbling “I’m feart”, exactly captured the mood of despondency and recrimination in the Yes camp.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/2014/02/road-independence
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,881
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Many voters were alienated by Blairite policies and Scottish MPs preference for Westminster.

    The failure of the first referendum on Scottish devolution in 1979 caused acri­mony, bitterness and disillusion among its supporters. Jim Turnbull’s cartoon in the Glasgow Herald the day after the result was announced, depicting the Scottish lion cowering in a cage with the door wide open and mumbling “I’m feart”, exactly captured the mood of despondency and recrimination in the Yes camp.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/2014/02/road-independence

    Thanks. There's a lot more in that piece. Whch is by Tom Devine - one of the best modern historians of Scotland.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think the Hamiltons prefer used notes to bouncing cheques!

    Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.
    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.

    Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.

    The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    Carola said:

    Brighton version of a 'there is no money left' note:

    http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/11059763.Council_gives_i360_green_light_with___36m_government_loan/?ref=var_0

    The best bit of that report:
    And in an added bonus the council would receive 50% of any extra cash created if the attraction does better than expected, to repay the loan early.
    As they say, LOL.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    Once again depressing to see all the councils are dominated by their ruling parties, I prefer things be a little closer so the administrations have to worry about potentially losing their grip. I'll take a chance and say two will not be won by the defending party. With Labour not standing maybe UKIP haev a chance in Burnham, the rest have so many candidate standing without local knowledge hard to judge.

    Funny to see the Ramsbottom one had a tied vote decided by drawing lots not long ago. What must it feel like to lose out in such circumstances?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    foxinsoxuk said:

    I think the Hamiltons prefer used notes to bouncing cheques!

    Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.

    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.

    Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.

    The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.

    Agreed. Seems like giving UKIP a free run at the anti-Tory vote, as well as siphoning off some of the former Tory vote.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    HYUFD said:

    Fox News General Election 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    •Chris Christie (R) 38%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
    •Jeb Bush (R) 38%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
    •Ted Cruz (R) 36%

    They still including Christie on those? I thought he was done for?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to nine points: CON 31%, LAB 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Mr. P, the polls are naturally bouncy. We saw this back with the first trackers during conference season. Not worth getting excited or depressed by a single poll.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    YouGov is pretty erratic at the moment!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    edited March 2014
    Fun fact, Ethandune was apparently what they used to think was the site of what is now called the Battle of Edington, also in the area, where Alfred beat the viking king Guthrum, helping to pave the way for the peace that established the Danelaw and the Wessex/Mercia boundary, and thus the existenc eof England itself.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Edington
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    RedStarJerichoRedStarJericho Posts: 6
    Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.

    Definitely very Chelsea in some of the villages, but also definitely no EU migration other than French bankers with second homes. It's all barley barons up there, so they don't need Poles to come in and pick stuff like they do down on the Fens.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    No results in yet?

    Putin would have this sorted well before 22:05.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RedStarJericho said:

    Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.

    Definitely very Chelsea in some of the villages, but also definitely no EU migration other than French bankers with second homes. It's all barley barons up there, so they don't need Poles to come in and pick stuff like they do down on the Fens.

    Welcome to PB, Mr. Jericho.

    I'd get those walls looked at by a structural engineer.

    There's a lot of posters with loud trumpets around.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    BobaFett said:

    YouGov is pretty erratic at the moment!

    You often get volatility before major long term shifts.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    AveryLP said:

    BobaFett said:

    YouGov is pretty erratic at the moment!

    CROSSOVEEEEEER
    You often get volatility before major long term shifts.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    AveryLP said:

    No results in yet?

    Putin would have this sorted well before 22:05.

    Well before 07:00.

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.

    Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.

    The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.

    Yes RT, should be interesting tonight.
    Are you going to add to the pot, Avery?
    I bought a tombola ticket at the last fund raiser, Mike.

    Won a lovely home baked fruit cake.

    Delicious.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,972
    The US and EU are being real blowhards over Crimea:



    The EU and US have joined Ukraine's government in condemning as "illegal" a move by the Crimea region to set up a referendum to endorse joining Russia.

    If they want to join Russia who the hell are we to stop them ?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Alanbrooke said:

    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Good to see UKIP fielding candidates in all the council elections today.

    Must mean Paul Sykes's cheque hasn't bounced.

    The Hamiltons will be cracking open a bottle.

    Osborne is useless
    An unique finding, Mr. Brooke.

    Have you thought of motoring over to Leamington to get your research findings protected?
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    JosiasJessop said:

    Carola said:

    Brighton version of a 'there is no money left' note:

    http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/11059763.Council_gives_i360_green_light_with___36m_government_loan/?ref=var_0

    The best bit of that report:
    And in an added bonus the council would receive 50% of any extra cash created if the attraction does better than expected, to repay the loan early.
    As they say, LOL.

    From what I've read - which isn't much tbh, as I worry I'll get an attack of the DailyMailies - they'll need over a thousand visitors a day. Every day. Arf.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,113
    kle4 Apart from maybe Paul Ryan, Christie still polls best of the GOP top tier
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    edited March 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    The US and EU are being real blowhards over Crimea:



    The EU and US have joined Ukraine's government in condemning as "illegal" a move by the Crimea region to set up a referendum to endorse joining Russia.

    If they want to join Russia who the hell are we to stop them ?

    I think its the precedent of Russia moving troops around russian speaking areas in other countries and then gracefully accepting their wish to join russia that the west wishes to avoid. That's fair enough. Crimea does seem to want to be Russian, but although Russia has at least not been violent about this, having Russian forces preemptively pretty much take control before the area takes the decision to formally be russian is diplomatically the wrong order. No-one will make too much of a stink about it, so it's just making a point about not liking the outcome, in uch the way Russia expressed its dislike of how things went down in the west of the country.

    There is nothing wrong about the west commenting upon it one way or another, just as Russia is free to comment upon things the west gets up to.


    Found Henry Kissenger's points about this whole thing a bit contradictory in truth. He says

    1. Ukraine should have the right to choose freely its economic and political associations, including with Europe.

    2. Ukraine should not join NATO, a position I took seven years ago, when it last came up.

    3. Ukraine should be free to create any government compatible with the expressed will of its people.

    among other things, but 1 and 3 are not universally compatible with 2. It might be prudent for them to choose those options, so as to be free to choose without outright pissing off Russia, but what if there free government expressing the will of the people wanted to join NATO? Then his whole plan falls apart.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    bigjohnowls said:

    AveryLP said:

    BobaFett said:

    YouGov is pretty erratic at the moment!

    CROSSOVEEEEEER
    You often get volatility before major long term shifts.
    Quiet please, BJO.

    You'll alarm compouter and cause him to drop a goalpost.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    I'm actually hoping for some low turnout landslides here, as I need to get to bed early. Come on people!
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    Labour Majority=2.46
    No Overall majority = 2.48

    CROSSOVEEEEEER LOL
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Theuniondivvie said:

    AveryLP said:

    No results in yet?

    Putin would have this sorted well before 22:05.

    Well before 07:00.

    And the Nats praise the political skills of Eck.

    A pygmy in comparison.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236
    AveryLP said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    AveryLP said:

    No results in yet?

    Putin would have this sorted well before 22:05.

    Well before 07:00.

    And the Nats praise the political skills of Eck.

    A pygmy in comparison.

    That dashed sentimental attachment to democracy! It'll be his 'Downfall'.

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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Say what you like about McTernan, but at least he is man enough to make some predictions, eg:

    IndyRef = NO

    Caithness and Sutherland = LAB GAIN from LD

    North East Fife = CON GAIN from LD

    'John McTernan: What next for Scots after No vote?'
    ... The political classes only have so much attention. For them, the referendum is over. A done deal. It’s going down. The question is what’s next?

    This may seem harsh, particularly to the voters who have yet to cast a single ballot, but it’s how all markets work – even political ones. They deal in futures, and after a certain point the future is priced and the circus moves on. That’s where we are. Independence is dead, long live Devo.

    ... While debate rages within the SNP about their future direction, the 2015 general election comes round. Here is where the Liberal Democrats pay the iron price. They formed a government with Scotland’s mortal enemy – the Conservative Party. And in a bitter irony the Tories stand to be the biggest winners. In Aberdeenshire, Gordon, North East Fife and the Borders they stand to gain from Lib Dem pain.

    The Tories will lose the 2015 general election, but – at least in Scotland – they may win seats, doubling, tripling or even quadrupling the size of their parliamentary group. And for those who think Labour have maxed out the number of Scottish seats they hold there will be the surprise gain of Caithness and Sutherland. A long-term Labour seat returning to the fold. Plus the outside chance that increasingly urban Inverness will drop the king of cuts – Danny Alexander – and go Labour again.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-mcternan-what-next-for-scots-after-no-vote-1-3331737

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014
    Scott_P said:

    Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead back up to nine points: CON 31%, LAB 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%

    Basil is apoplectic with rage. Those goalposts feel very heavy tonight.

    http://th00.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/i/2010/181/1/a/Mad_Squirrel_by_KKaju.png
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    AveryLP said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    AveryLP said:

    No results in yet?

    Putin would have this sorted well before 22:05.

    Well before 07:00.

    And the Nats praise the political skills of Eck.

    A pygmy in comparison.

    That dashed sentimental attachment to democracy! It'll be his 'Downfall'.

    It is the work ethic, McDivvie.

    Just look at what Volodya can achieve in a single day.

    The Autonomous Republic of Crimea has formed its own bodies of power independent from the authorities in Ukraine’s capital Kiev, as follows from a resolution adopted at Thursday’s urgent full-scale meeting of the autonomy’s legislature.

    According to the Crimean parliament’s press-service, the autonomy has established its own ministries of justice, internal affairs, emergency situations, industrial policies, fuel and energy, and information and mass communications.

    Crimea has also formed its own prosecutors’ offices, security service, customs, tax and penitentiary services and also social funds independent from Ukraine.

    “The resolution was adopted with the aim to improve the management of the social and economic development of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, optimize the executive bodies of power, guarantee the rights and freedoms of the autonomy’s residents, ethnic and civic accord, law, order and public security, as well as effective and well-coordinated operation of the executive authorities,” the statement runs.

    Given the same time, Eck wouldn't have reached the first green in regulation.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Re the Burnham by election , I doubt that UKIP will be even close . Their candidate had to be imported from Kings Lynn and the conservatives have a strong local candidate
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The local paper Bury Times has a live blog on the Ramsbottom by election . Early comments say it is very close between Lab and Con .
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    As predicted with my report from the constituency, the Ramsbottom result is very close. I hope my little effort for the cause helps Sarah become the newest member of Bury council.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MarkSenior said:

    The local paper Bury Times has a live blog on the Ramsbottom by election . Early comments say it is very close between Lab and Con .

    http://www.burytimes.co.uk/news/11059769.Ramsbottom_by_election/?ref=var_0
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BobaFett said:

    Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.

    I wouldn't go so far as brilliant. Dimbleby allowed him to ramble on for ever.

    But his key point, that the west should be developing an alliance of trust with Russia, was sound and well put.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Ashford Wye is an Ashford Ind gain from Con

    Ash Ind 323 Con 240 UKIP 97 Green 55 Lab 22 LD 13
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited March 2014
    I had a very congenial evening in a pub full of Portuguese workers near Burnham a few years ago, but it may have been a bit further East towards Fakenham.

    No LD either, though not far from Norman Lambs constituency.
    RedStarJericho said:

    Burnham in west Norfolk looks interesting. A straight Tory/ UKIP fight. The Burnhams are very "Chelsea by Sea" with a smattering of good old boys. Quite a bit of EU migration to work on the fields. Strange that Labour did not put anyone up when they got 27% last time.

    Definitely very Chelsea in some of the villages, but also definitely no EU migration other than French bankers with second homes. It's all barley barons up there, so they don't need Poles to come in and pick stuff like they do down on the Fens.



  • Options
    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MarkSenior said:

    The local paper Bury Times has a live blog on the Ramsbottom by election . Early comments say it is very close between Lab and Con .

    Two pensioners walked up to me in the street and told me they only remembered to vote when they saw me wearing two Labour stickers as I walked past. They happily told me they voted Labour. If Sarah wins by two votes It woz me wot won it.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    compouter2 said:

    As predicted with my report from the constituency, the Ramsbottom result is very close. I hope my little effort for the cause helps Sarah become the newest member of Bury council.

    'Sal' surely if she's the Labour candidate, 'pouter.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    edited March 2014
    AveryLP said:

    BobaFett said:

    Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.

    I wouldn't go so far as brilliant. Dimbleby allowed him to ramble on for ever.

    But his key point, that the west should be developing an alliance of trust with Russia, was sound and well put.
    Does Russia want an alliance of trust with us? We're hardly helping to create one either, but it takes two to tango.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Freggles said:

    Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.

    It is just a pity that a crimper's pair of scissors couldn't do for her voice what it has done for her hair.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    Tory leader Cllr Iain Gartside says he thinks his party may have edged it or that there may be a recount
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AveryLP said:

    compouter2 said:

    As predicted with my report from the constituency, the Ramsbottom result is very close. I hope my little effort for the cause helps Sarah become the newest member of Bury council.

    'Sal' surely if she's the Labour candidate, 'pouter.
    Having been campaigning with her today, she would make a fine councillor. Also her first time at standing at an election.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    AveryLP said:

    BobaFett said:

    Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.

    I wouldn't go so far as brilliant. Dimbleby allowed him to ramble on for ever.

    But his key point, that the west should be developing an alliance of trust with Russia, was sound and well put.
    The way he destroyed DavidA's argument was impressive though
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Ashford Wye is an Ashford Ind gain from Con

    Ash Ind 323 Con 240 UKIP 97 Green 55 Lab 22 LD 13

    LD 13. From 89. Oh dear.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Scottish Rouble - you know it makes sense.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Bury turnout a decent 32.56 % overall but 1249 postal votes returned out of 1900 around 65%
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Not Rachel Reeves, the far more charming and human Liz Kendall:

    http://www.lizkendall.org/

    Freggles said:

    Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Ashford Wye is an Ashford Ind gain from Con

    Ash Ind 323 Con 240 UKIP 97 Green 55 Lab 22 LD 13

    LD 13. From 89. Oh dear.
    The Labour vote fell even more than the Lib Dem
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tory leader Cllr Iain Gartside says he thinks his party may have edged it or that there may be a recount

    Not another recount, cable ties at the ready.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    edited March 2014
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Ashford Wye is an Ashford Ind gain from Con

    Ash Ind 323 Con 240 UKIP 97 Green 55 Lab 22 LD 13

    LD 13. From 89. Oh dear.
    Lab 22 from 112. Almost as bad a drop percentage wise.

    UKIP 97 from 97. Can't fault the consistency I guess.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    kle4 said:

    AveryLP said:

    BobaFett said:

    Hezza brilliant on QT on Crimea.

    I wouldn't go so far as brilliant. Dimbleby allowed him to ramble on for ever.

    But his key point, that the west should be developing an alliance of trust with Russia, was sound and well put.
    Does Russia want an alliance of trust with us? We're hardly helping to create one either, but it takes two to tango.
    I am certain Russia won't vote for a return to communism after its taste of 'free' market economy.

    It is an immensely proud, strong and self-reliant country which is paradoxically fascinated by the West. If the West shows rather than tells, and is patient and humble, Russia will adopt and imitate. But for each two steps forward there will be one back.

    As Heseltine suggested, building trust is a twenty year goal not an overnight tactic.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Dr. Sox

    I regret that it is very much Rachel.
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Not Rachel Reeves, the far more charming and human Liz Kendall:

    http://www.lizkendall.org/



    Freggles said:

    Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    From Bury Times "I sound like a broken record, but all indications are that it is too close to call. Several Councillors think there may be a recount".
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    The Purple Columnist ‏@PurpleColumnist 9m
    RECOUNT EXPECTED in Ramsbottom (Bury). Too close to call.
    Lab Cllr for local area has admitted UKIP is taking votes equally off Lab and Con.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2014
    Well, here's a headline worthy of Night Hawks at TSE's best:

    http://tinyurl.com/mcs2r9o
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    "Tories seem confident. Cllr bevan just raised his eyebrows at me and smiled"..booooooo!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Oh dear!

    She does rather remind me of the disembodied voice that warns us to "mind the gap" when travelling on the circle line.

    But perhaps that is the attraction for Sunil!
    AveryLP said:

    Dr. Sox

    I regret that it is very much Rachel.

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Not Rachel Reeves, the far more charming and human Liz Kendall:

    http://www.lizkendall.org/



    Freggles said:

    Doesn't Sunil fancy Rachel Reeves? Not quite what I expected.

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Looks like my two pensioners weren't enough to win it. Tories have won in Ramsbottom.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    compouter2 said:

    Looks like my two pensioners weren't enough to win it. Tories have won in Ramsbottom.

    My sympathies, compouter.

    At least you can take comfort that the polls indicated otherwise.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AveryLP said:

    compouter2 said:

    Looks like my two pensioners weren't enough to win it. Tories have won in Ramsbottom.

    My sympathies, compouter.

    At least you can take comfort that the polls indicated otherwise.
    It was quite enjoyable all the same.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Well, here's a headline worthy of Night Hawks at TSE's best:

    http://tinyurl.com/mcs2r9o

    Carola to dine on turtle soup.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Seems that Labour have held Nottingham Clifton with a majority of around 150 . A good result for them as Conservatives had an easier task there than in Ramsbottom
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    compouter2 said:

    Looks like my two pensioners weren't enough to win it. Tories have won in Ramsbottom.

    Any figures yet?

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014
    Top spinning going on at Ramsbottom:

    Mike Connolly - Labour - It is very close

    Ian Bevan - Tory - We are well ahead
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014
    Bit of a back track from the Tories "Tory leader Cllr Gartside tells me he thinks they have won. Says if there is a recount it will be in the Tories favour". They were saying they were well ahead ten minutes ago. Result imminent.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Tories with 350 majority in Ramsbottom.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    compouter2 said:

    Tories with 350 majority in Ramsbottom.

    Have you Baxtered that compouter?

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014
    Using the Monte Carlo through Dickie Davies formula that means there is a 750% chance of a Tory majority of 390 or more.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Nottingham

    Lab 1,179
    Con 1,025
    UKIP 536
    Bus-Pass Elvis Party 67
    LD 56
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AveryLP said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tories with 350 majority in Ramsbottom.

    Have you Baxtered that compouter?

    In 2008 the Conservative majority was 1,138
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    From 10th April 1982, The Buggles with "Lenny":

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JYeveXiGH0&amp
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2014
    Romsbottom
    Con 1398 Lab 1033 UKIP 351 Green157 LibDem 38
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ramsbottom result:

    Tory 1398
    Lab 1033
    Ukip 351
    Green 157
    Lib Dem 38
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A recount with a majority of 350 votes in a council ward???
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    There has not been any recount.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Nottingham

    Lab 1,179
    Con 1,025
    UKIP 536
    Bus-Pass Elvis Party 67
    LD 56

    Not a bad result for the Tories in a place like a Nottingham.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndyJS said:

    A recount with a majority of 350 votes in a council ward???

    Labour have never been any good at figures.

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AndyJS said:

    A recount with a majority of 350 votes in a council ward???

    There was no recount. Cannot see how anyone could say that was close and both parties were talking of a recount about twenty minutes ago.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel 5m
    Clifton North result for Nottingham City Council: LAB 41.2% (-9.7), CON 35.8% (-13.3), #UKIP 18.7% (+18.7), BUS-PASS ELVIS 2.3%, LDEM 2.0%.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AveryLP said:

    AndyJS said:

    A recount with a majority of 350 votes in a council ward???

    Labour have never been any good at figures.

    Neither obviously is the Tory leader in the council.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    I doubt that the Conservatives will be whinging about the number of postal votes in Bury tonight .
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I'm off to bed. Nite all.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,358
    Congrats to the Tories on Bury - very impressive postal vote effort there and a striking outcome. I was briefly involved in the Clifton one (by way of returning the favour of people who'd helped canvassing in Broxtowe). The ward felt like the less Guardian/Telegraph bits of Broxtowe, right down to the tram construction chaos plus a long street of houses largely evacuated for environmental cladding. UKIP's candidate was a local shopkeeper with a big on-street stand and getting a good personal vote. Labour's result is good for a split ward, especially as the reason for the election wasn't great (the sole Labour councillor in the ward had apparently just decided to call it a day). Embarrassing LibDem result - beaten by Elvis!

    As for YouGov - yeah, whatever. We're ahead by 5-6, +/- noise, with nothing genuinely happening at the moment.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    In addition to the Westminster seats UKIP "won" in the 2013 local elections, they also came close in:

    Eastleigh (LD)
    Folkestone and Hythe (Con)
    Harwich and North Essex (Con)
    Northampton North (Con)
    South Norfolk (Con)
    North Norfolk (LD)
    Lewes (LD)
    Basildon and Billericay (Con)

    http://www.columnist.org.uk/2014/03/02/revealed-the-nineteen-constituencies-ukip-won-or-nearly-won-in-2013/
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Just how low can the Lib Dems go?

    http://redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/red-rag-lib-dems-hit-new-low-beaten-by.html
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