politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
Comments
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Hypocrisy is causing the damage and there's no escaping that now for Gove.0
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Second like the LibDems0
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It's that ole devil called Gove!0
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I think Gove's revelations will probably mean that Hunt, not Gove, comes second to Boris on Thursday especially if as reported Rudd, Hammond, Clark etc are ready to endorse Hunt.
However I would not count Gove out, as of today he still has 1 more MP backing him than Hunt and once McVey and Leadsom go out I would expect more of their support to go to him than Hunt and he might well pick up a few from Hancock, Stewart and Gyimah too. If he then knocks out Raab and Javid I suspect more of the former's MPs would back him over Hunt and he would at least split the difference with Hunt with The Saj's supporters and have a chance of overtaking Hunt to get to the runoff with Boris0 -
I do wonder if his demise isn't a bit overblown - particularly given how many other candidates have made similar admissions. Maybe this does sink him, but he's picked up a couple of new endorsements today and I don't know of any backers publicly renouncing him.0
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Nah the most extraordinary betting part is Leadsom's price.1
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fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-0901427940 -
I topped up a fiver at 21.0 but Hunt is happily a better result for me anyway.Quincel said:I do wonder if his demise isn't a bit overblown - particularly given how many other candidates have made similar admissions. Maybe this does sink him, but he's picked up a couple of new endorsements today and I don't know of any backers publicly renouncing him.
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I prefer Raab's plan tbhScott_P said:0 -
The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?0 -
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:
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I think it is the media (specifically the Brexit supporting media) who are gunning for Gove, maybe it is his past deeds in relation to Boris Johnson or maybe Gove is seen as the biggest competitor to Johnson. I am sorry to bang on about the Brexit supporting media but they seem to have disproportionate influence in our countries future. They want Boris as PM and will do anything to achieve this even if it means destroying the career of Gove who is a fellow journalist!Quincel said:I do wonder if his demise isn't a bit overblown - particularly given how many other candidates have made similar admissions. Maybe this does sink him, but he's picked up a couple of new endorsements today and I don't know of any backers publicly renouncing him.
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And still he's rated at less than a quarter the chance of Leadsom according to Betfair !Scott_P said:0 -
Nonetheless there are intriguing signs that Boris, has - finally - been doing some proper hard thinking, or at least has employed people to think for him, given that he is a fat, lazy, oversexed bastard.Pulpstar said:
I prefer Raab's plan tbhScott_P said:
His campaign has been a model of discretion and modesty. It must have been tricky for him. But he is doing it.0 -
Javid is probably the one they should go for.Scott_P said:0 -
I will laugh if Leadsom gets 50+ votes on Thursday.0
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That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?0 -
I'm currently+£300 on Boris and +£950 on Hunt so this suits me.0
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Caroline Nokes, Victoria Atkins, but who's Williams? Someone in the Lords?0
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Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.0 -
Poor Govey. But it's a race of also rans against the Boris machine at the momenty anyway. Hunt will be smiling for the moment at any rate, though I guess as per posts below Javid still has a chance to make the final cut, particularly if he can pick up Gove's backers.0
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Who is the home office minister "Williams" ?0
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It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.0 -
My word you have dug hard on LeadsomCasino_Royale said:I'm currently+£300 on Boris and +£950 on Hunt so this suits me.
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That's presumably because he has done virtually nothing else in the last few years other than think about his leadership campaign. It's given him no time to think about other things, given it took him near 6 months to realise not Brexiting might lead to No Brexit, and he had better vote for the WA after all.Byronic said:
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It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.0 -
So the weird thing about this race is that nobody really knows who the voters are. Tory members *used* to live tax cuts for rich people but many of those people have left, and what about the brexit-enthusiastic entryists?0
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There isn't time for this to blow over, the process starts tomorrow and Gove has just had a whole weekend of bad press. He may not have much chance of winning now but there's nothing stopping him staying in and trying to take Boris down in the debates/hustings.0
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It’s exactly what he did in London for eight years. Avoid press conferences and difficult interviews, talk to friendly journalists, make speeches with no follow-up Q&A. Johnson has never been big on scrutiny. For obvious reasons.Byronic said:
Nonetheless there are intriguing signs that Boris, has - finally - been doing some proper hard thinking, or at least has employed people to think for him, given that he is a fat, lazy, oversexed bastard.Pulpstar said:
I prefer Raab's plan tbhScott_P said:
His campaign has been a model of discretion and modesty. It must have been tricky for him. But he is doing it.
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Promise them no deal and they could not care less I suspect, but it's nice that they candidates are at least attempting to come up with some ideas on issues besides Brexit to differentiate themselves.edmundintokyo said:So the weird thing about this race is that nobody really knows who the voters are. Tory members *used* to live tax cuts for rich people but many of those people have left, and what about the brexit-enthusiastic entryists?
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Raising the 40p from 50-80k probably shores up some seats in the Southeast I think.0
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But it may not legally owe the amount, both sides accept about half may be unenforceable. You can't ask a non-member if an organisation to pay membership fees.Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
As I said, the market will give no fucks about it, the sovereign debt default aspect is complete rubbish. The effect is limited to our future relationship with the EU, but that also cuts both ways. If the EU is unwilling to take the necessary steps to avoid the scenario from playing out then they will be as culpable as the government. Again, there's no black and white scenario here, of all people I'd expect you to understand that.1 -
£50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere toonico67 said:
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:0 -
Boris is an empty vessel every single different wing of the party is pouring its hopes into. Everyone sees what they want to see.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
It is pretty impressive.
Obviously it collapses the moment he takes office but its betting him the job.0 -
Boris will almost certainly still have to contest a membership vote, unlike May and unlike Brown.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
Boris also has charisma, May and Brown did not and the biggest determinant of who wins an election these days tends to be which party has the more charismatic leader
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it really really ISN'T. May and Brown enjoyed a coronation. Which turned out calamitous for us - and for them and their careers.Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
Boris is being tested in a campaign, and he is, so far, campaigning rather cleverly. Hence his position as faraway front runner.
Does this augur well, if he becomes PM? Let us hope so.0 -
Boris has not said he will not pay, his words were he would "withhold" payment. We withheld paying back the Iranians the 300mill they paid for tanks, made us such a pariah in the world.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.0 -
Agreed.SouthamObserver said:
It’s exactly what he did in London for eight years. Avoid press conferences and difficult interviews, talk to friendly journalists, make speeches with no follow-up Q&A. Johnson has never been big on scrutiny. For obvious reasons.Byronic said:
Nonetheless there are intriguing signs that Boris, has - finally - been doing some proper hard thinking, or at least has employed people to think for him, given that he is a fat, lazy, oversexed bastard.Pulpstar said:
I prefer Raab's plan tbhScott_P said:
His campaign has been a model of discretion and modesty. It must have been tricky for him. But he is doing it.0 -
Boris vs Hunt = Corbyn vs Kinnock.0
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Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
And then we found that a blank space was all she was.
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.0 -
If Javid knocks out Gove and it is a final 4 of Boris, Hunt, Javid and Raab and he then knocks out Raab too I would make Javid favourite over Hunt to make the final two with Boris as more of Raab's backers will likely go to Javid than Huntkle4 said:Poor Govey. But it's a race of also rans against the Boris machine at the momenty anyway. Hunt will be smiling for the moment at any rate, though I guess as per posts below Javid still has a chance to make the final cut, particularly if he can pick up Gove's backers.
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Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.0 -
Seems like an extraordinary hike, would put me into the basic rate which I find quite incredible really. There will surely be conjuring tricks, so they claw back the money elsewhere. It would be an massive giveaway to people in my income bracket otherwise.Pulpstar said:Raising the 40p from 50-80k probably shores up some seats in the Southeast I think.
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A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.HYUFD said:
£50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere toonico67 said:
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:
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The new £80k bracket sounds nice. Get rid of allowance withdrawal and the additional rate and we might finally have a Tory PM worthy of the title.1
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TBF there's no way anyone's getting a realistic achievable plan for Brexit past the membership, so if anybody has one their only moves are either to STFU for the duration of the campaign or to lie about it.Cyclefree said:
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.0 -
Worth bearing in mind that Boris himself is potentially defending a marginal seat in Greater London.HYUFD said:
£50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere toonico67 said:
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:0 -
Not bad for taxpayers either.SouthamObserver said:
A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.HYUFD said:
£50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere toonico67 said:
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:0 -
OblitusSumMe said:
Hypocrisy is causing the damage and there's no escaping that now for Gove.
I’m surprised that anyone is surprised, or cares.0 -
Oh great, more money for me that should absolutely be going to places where it's needed instead.MaxPB said:The new £80k bracket sounds nice. Get rid of allowance withdrawal and the additional rate and we might finally have a Tory PM worthy of the title.
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Must be Baroness Williams.Pulpstar said:Who is the home office minister "Williams" ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Williams,_Baroness_Williams_of_Trafford0 -
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.0 -
And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?Cyclefree said:
Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
And then we found that a blank space was all she was.
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.
Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.
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You’re making a bizarre analogy . The UK s biggest market is the EU , pissing off Iran isn’t going to hurt trade and the EU globally is much more powerful than Iran .ralphmalph said:
Boris has not said he will not pay, his words were he would "withhold" payment. We withheld paying back the Iranians the 300mill they paid for tanks, made us such a pariah in the world.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
It’s quite delusional for some Leavers to think you can walk out , fail to pay your bills and the EU will say great let’s do a trade deal now .
In fact the way Bozos going he’ll end up the shortest PM in history .0 -
No. It isn't. Yawn.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.0 -
But Boris is shit..Byronic said:
And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?Cyclefree said:
Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
And then we found that a blank space was all she was.
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.
Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.0 -
It's not Johnson making the mistake, it's the people voting for him.Byronic said:
And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?Cyclefree said:
Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
And then we found that a blank space was all she was.
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.
Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.0 -
Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
0 -
That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.2 -
Why and how? Genuine question.TGOHF said:
But Boris is shit..Byronic said:
And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?Cyclefree said:
Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
And then we found that a blank space was all she was.
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.
Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.0 -
And handily just above an MP’s salary.MaxPB said:The new £80k bracket sounds nice. Get rid of allowance withdrawal and the additional rate and we might finally have a Tory PM worthy of the title.
1 -
-
Get real. If Britain leaves with no deal, it will be looking for friends. It won’t be the EU which will be blamed because Britain has decided that ignoring agreements it previously entered into is the way to start on its post-Brexit future.MaxPB said:
But it may not legally owe the amount, both sides accept about half may be unenforceable. You can't ask a non-member if an organisation to pay membership fees.Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
As I said, the market will give no fucks about it, the sovereign debt default aspect is complete rubbish. The effect is limited to our future relationship with the EU, but that also cuts both ways. If the EU is unwilling to take the necessary steps to avoid the scenario from playing out then they will be as culpable as the government. Again, there's no black and white scenario here, of all people I'd expect you to understand that.
That will be taken into account in the price which Britain will be charged for everything it wants, from the EU or anyone else.
0 -
Very good news for well-off ones, for sure.TGOHF said:
Not bad for taxpayers either.SouthamObserver said:
A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.HYUFD said:
£50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere toonico67 said:
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:
0 -
You are making a different argument to Macron and the people on here that we would suffer internationally for mot paying the ransom. You are now sating the EU would be annoyed. Well no shit sherlock, I agree.nico67 said:
You’re making a bizarre analogy . The UK s biggest market is the EU , pissing off Iran isn’t going to hurt trade and the EU globally is much more powerful than Iran .ralphmalph said:
Boris has not said he will not pay, his words were he would "withhold" payment. We withheld paying back the Iranians the 300mill they paid for tanks, made us such a pariah in the world.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
It’s quite delusional for some Leavers to think you can walk out , fail to pay your bills and the EU will say great let’s do a trade deal now .
In fact the way Bozos going he’ll end up the shortest PM in history .0 -
Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenuesSouthamObserver said:
Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.1 -
Did you miss the Foreign Secretary months ?Byronic said:
Why and how? Genuine question.TGOHF said:
But Boris is shit..Byronic said:
And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?Cyclefree said:
Sorry. All it does is set him up for failure as PM. It is simply a carbon copy of Mrs May. She gave little away. She seemed to be competent and relied on what seemed to be her long good record at the Home Office. She seemed popular. Remember those polls. She allowed everyone to doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space. Some even though that her silence and caution were evidence of a cunning plan and strategy.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
And then we found that a blank space was all she was.
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.
Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.0 -
-
People are quite capable of suddenly caring intensely about things even if, unlike in this case, they already knew about matter at hand. It's curious._Anazina_ said:OblitusSumMe said:Hypocrisy is causing the damage and there's no escaping that now for Gove.
I’m surprised that anyone is surprised, or cares.0 -
-
I think refusing to pay is the road to ruin, more pain and the usual characters will claim we can take it whilst they will feel little of it. Trump gets away with that sort of tactic as the US is No.1 economically and militarily at the moment. If the UK was No.1 in the world we could turn around and say screw you to the EU but the very fact we are less significant than we were internationally 75 or 100 years ago is the very reason we joined the EU! Our relationship with the EU is all about money , trade and future development prospects. We say F??? you and we end up hitting ourselves economically...Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.0 -
You don’t expand economic growth by reducing your opportunities to trade and increasing your borrowing costs.HYUFD said:
Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenuesSouthamObserver said:
Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
0 -
Well, Gove was the remainers' leaver, but I guess with him flailing there are not remainer friendly leavers to back.AndyJS said:0 -
-
As I said, it's a load of crap, the UK has and will maintain the confidence of the markets regardless of the outcome of the exit bill.Cyclefree said:
Get real. If Britain leaves with no deal, it will be looking for friends. It won’t be the EU which will be blamed because Britain has decided that ignoring agreements it previously entered into is the way to start on its post-Brexit future.MaxPB said:
But it may not legally owe the amount, both sides accept about half may be unenforceable. You can't ask a non-member if an organisation to pay membership fees.Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
As I said, the market will give no fucks about it, the sovereign debt default aspect is complete rubbish. The effect is limited to our future relationship with the EU, but that also cuts both ways. If the EU is unwilling to take the necessary steps to avoid the scenario from playing out then they will be as culpable as the government. Again, there's no black and white scenario here, of all people I'd expect you to understand that.
That will be taken into account in the price which Britain will be charged for everything it wants, from the EU or anyone else.
I think you need to separate market reality from media perception of the market.1 -
Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etcThe_Taxman said:
Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
0 -
Yes and No. They need to promise things like that to win among the members, so they have kept their sense in doing so. The problems will be if they try to do those things and there is an external backlash, or they don;t try to do them and there is an internal backlash.Scott_P said:
We've not moved on from May yet, all of them are focused on getting through the next five minutes and that's about it.0 -
i think this is right. The credit agencies and global finance are not exactly fans of the international body which created the dysfunctional idiocy that is the "eurozone".MaxPB said:
That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
A dispute with Brussels won't harm us (or them in Europe), nor will it hurt us (or them). It will be seen as a minor but niggling dispute (which it is, in the global scheme). It will be two divorcees settling bills. Everyone will look away. In boredom.
1 -
Brexit done well will expand opportunities to trade across the globe, especially in fast growing AsiaSouthamObserver said:
You don’t expand economic growth by reducing your opportunities to trade and increasing your borrowing costs.HYUFD said:
Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenuesSouthamObserver said:
Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.1 -
"Instead of sending £39bn to Brussels, let's spend it on the rich instead"0
-
A No Deal Brexit is not Brexit done well. We already have huge opportunities in Asia.HYUFD said:
Brexit done well will expand opportunities to trade across the globe, especially in fast growing AsiaSouthamObserver said:
You don’t expand economic growth by reducing your opportunities to trade and increasing your borrowing costs.HYUFD said:
Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenuesSouthamObserver said:
Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
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I don't doubt you but can you show me the Peter Hitchens column backing Bozza ?HYUFD said:
Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etcThe_Taxman said:
Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.0 -
Hunt is apparently 'a serious leader for serious times' according to Rudd, so basically much the same as Brown and May thenScott_P said:0 -
Indeed and it will benefit a lot of voters thereCasino_Royale said:
Worth bearing in mind that Boris himself is potentially defending a marginal seat in Greater London.HYUFD said:
£50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere toonico67 said:
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:0 -
A second chance that a lot of people don't get.0
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How do you fund £10 million of ongoing tax cuts annually from a one off pot?Scott_P said:
I know it’s all funny money anyway but it doesn’t really add up.0 -
Yes, this idea that the whole world will be watching with baited breath is quaint, but completely wrong. Nobody is going to care. It's probably a bit depressing more than anything else, but such is the reality of the market.Byronic said:
i think this is right. The credit agencies and global finance are not exactly fans of the international body which created the dysfunctional idiocy that is the "eurozone".MaxPB said:
That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
A dispute with Brussels won't harm us (or them in Europe), nor will it hurt us (or them). It will be seen as a minor but niggling dispute (which it is, in the global scheme). It will be two divorcees settling bills. Everyone will look away. In boredom.0 -
Jeremy Hunt puts head in hands and wails "Please no."AndyJS said:0 -
If we go to No Deal we will need to cut taxes to continue to attract business and investment and higher earners here so this will help with that. If you want higher taxes you will never vote Tory anywaySouthamObserver said:
A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.HYUFD said:
£50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere toonico67 said:
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:0 -
He said Hitchens does NOT support BojoPulpstar said:
I don't doubt you but can you show me the Peter Hitchens column backing Bozza ?HYUFD said:
Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etcThe_Taxman said:
Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.0 -
As for Hunt - Rudd and Hammond backing you might be a poisoned chalice.0