politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (an
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)
Conservatives announce first round ballot for the leadership race next Thursday, then all wrapped up the following week to decide final two.
Comments
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1.
Thank God the announcement says "fewer" when it means fewer, not less.0 -
Second like Hunt.0
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He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.Scott_P said:
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.0 -
Not first - Like Jezza. Again. And again. And again. And again.
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Fifth like the Tories0
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It's going to be an annoying month. A lot of promises that cannot be kept, talking to themselves to feel better rather than facing the choices actually before them.0
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So this is what taking back control and giving it to a sovereign Parliament looks like.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/11359993518206238800 -
So if May is staying on as Tory leader until the election of a replacement, she actually pre-announced the pre-announcement of her departure the week before last.
On June 7th nothing will have changed.0 -
Yes, but it's not less than 5%/10% because the Tories have fewer than 321 MPs. Tsk.Ishmael_Z said:1.
Thank God the announcement says "fewer" when it means fewer, not less.0 -
The 1922 appointed TM as acting leader until the 22nd July.SandyRentool said:So if May is staying on as Tory leader until the election of a replacement, she actually pre-announced the pre-announcement of her departure the week before last.
On June 7th nothing will have changed.
TM did not appoint herself in that role0 -
How is she going to "unprorogue" the European commission to bring about the "managed" bit?TheScreamingEagles said:So this is what taking back control and giving it to a sovereign Parliament looks like.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/11359993518206238800 -
As a mother she can multitask and do the job of the European commission as well.alex. said:
How is she going to "unprorogue" the European commission to bring about the "managed" bit?TheScreamingEagles said:So this is what taking back control and giving it to a sovereign Parliament looks like.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/11359993518206238800 -
She's furiously spinning now
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1136000281395830784
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/11360010704702259260 -
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?kle4 said:
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.Scott_P said:
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.0 -
'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?1 -
I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."
My ego needs constant adoration.0 -
I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.Theuniondivvie said:'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?1 -
Just as some people feel we have to no deal (however bad it may be) because doing so it the only way to ultimately lance the boil of anti-EU extremism by demonstrating iso maybe a lot of Tory MPs feel he has to become leader because he has to be seen to fail hopelessly before they can move on. With the added bonus that they may be able to subsequently wrestle the power to choose leaders back from the membership.Theuniondivvie said:'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?0 -
When are you announcing your leadership bid?TheScreamingEagles said:My ego needs constant adoration.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.Theuniondivvie said:'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?
I'd assumed that. You are not necessarily as other Tories though.0 -
"People always ask me the same question, they say, 'Is Boris a very very clever man pretending to be an idiot?' And I always say, 'No.'" Ian Hislop.dodrade said:
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?kle4 said:
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.Scott_P said:
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.
I have always found that damning as Hislop has no political axe to grind, and tries to present a nice friendly persona (which is why the Eye is so gutless under him).0 -
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I’ll be disappointed and surprised if Boris wins.Theuniondivvie said:'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?
I also expect him to be crap as a PM. He might win a GE for the Cons though. But he will be unremarkable- a scruffier Cameron.0 -
Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.0
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Q: Why should you never wear Ukrainian boxer shorts?
A: Chernobyl fallout.
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Come on, Andrea, drop out and piss off.0
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It is rubbish though, because a June exit is out from 2-ish earlier today to 9 now on Betfair. It should be May really does end in July. Unless it is June which has just come back in a couple of points. What you should have written is Brandon Lewis is the Chris Grayling of betting markets.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."
My ego needs constant adoration.0 -
Not up to your usual high standard imo. Sorry.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."
My ego needs constant adoration.0 -
His puns are usually pretty august.Benpointer said:
Not up to your usual high standard imo. Sorry.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."
My ego needs constant adoration.0 -
The editing of the Wikipedia pages on Friday will be something to behold.DecrepitJohnL said:
It is rubbish though, because a June exit is out from 2-ish earlier today to 9 now on Betfair. It should be May really does end in July. Unless it is June which has just come back in a couple of points. What you should have written is Brandon Lewis is the Chris Grayling of betting markets.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."
My ego needs constant adoration.0 -
Boris is odds-on now.Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
Gove 4/1
Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.0 -
It could be, ofcourse, that many MP's know that Johnson will not last more than a few months if he does what he says, but that could be a crucial few months in terms of buying time against the Brexit party ; because the current speed of decline at the hands of the BXP looks extremely dangerous for the Tories, to put it mildly.
At the same time, if he doesn't do what he says, they know he could last a lot longer ; and many of them also know he often doesn't do what he says.0 -
I want us to leave on October 31st, but achieving that via No Deal via proroguing the House would be a constitutional abomination.TheScreamingEagles said:So this is what taking back control and giving it to a sovereign Parliament looks like.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/11359993518206238800 -
What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf0 -
You will enjoy being a Lib Dem. Beards are all the rage with good muslim boys* and I am sure that you will adapt your footwear fashion to sandalsTheScreamingEagles said:
I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.Theuniondivvie said:'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?
*Eid Mubarak btw!0 -
If I were CCHQ I'd worry about the optics of all stale, male and pale hustings. The 1922 really has got this all wrong, with the month-long resignation of Theresa May contrasting with the sudden faux urgency and late rule change.Casino_Royale said:Come on, Andrea, drop out and piss off.
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Thank you.Foxy said:
You will enjoy being a Lib Dem. Beards are all the rage with good muslim boys* and I am sure that you will adapt your footwear fashion to sandalsTheScreamingEagles said:
I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.Theuniondivvie said:'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?
*Eid Mubarak btw!
Just been to a party celebrating Eid, all my Mum's friends tried to marry me off, again.
I really don't like Eid, I'm still sore about paying the Zakat as well.0 -
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.0 -
Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is odds-on now.Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
Gove 4/1
Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath0 -
Will it be a Red October?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."
My ego needs constant adoration.0 -
Lol. "A call for candidates will be made on June 7th". Is that for anyone who hadn't heard there might be a vacancy going?0
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So the splitters have split.
It did cause one of the rare political discussions at my work with the JPF and PFJ referenced.
Even by current standards they brought incompetence and mendacity to new heights.0 -
Only if there is a lot of MarchingSunil_Prasannan said:
Will it be a Red October?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."
My ego needs constant adoration.0 -
Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for GoveThe_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.0 -
What about all the BXP infiltrators who might decide to vote in the perceived interests of their party, as opposed for the most Brexity candidate?The_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.0 -
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Michael Portillo once said of Boris Johnson that he needs to decide whether he is a serious politician or someone who makes jokes and tries to amuse people. I don't think he can change it is a fundamental part of his personality. I don't think he is cut out to be PM, I suspect he would have difficulty making decisions that the office requires.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is odds-on now.Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
Gove 4/1
Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath0 -
Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for GoveThe_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.0 -
Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12MarqueeMark said:What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf0 -
A friend in Eid is a friend in deed?TheScreamingEagles said:
Thank you.Foxy said:
You will enjoy being a Lib Dem. Beards are all the rage with good muslim boys* and I am sure that you will adapt your footwear fashion to sandalsTheScreamingEagles said:
I'd sooner vote for Mark TPD Reckless before I reconcile myself to Boris as PM.Theuniondivvie said:'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?
*Eid Mubarak btw!
Just been to a party celebrating Eid, all my Mum's friends tried to marry me off, again.
I really don't like Eid, I'm still sore about paying the Zakat as well. 0 -
Should be able to knock it out on a few pages of A4 i guess.Scott_P said:0 -
Either the Conservatives win an election in the 30s or lose catastrophically badly in the teens, IMHO.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12MarqueeMark said:What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf
I don't see much inbetween.0 -
Its a possibility, mind you I would have thought if the other members of the Tories or TBP become aware of dual membership they will be expelled. The Tories certainly would and I know of Local Conservative parties in the past who have had to take action against infiltrators as it is usually common knowledge if people were active in other political parties.alex. said:
What about all the BXP infiltrators who might decide to vote in the perceived interests of their party, as opposed for the most Brexity candidate?The_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.0 -
I've made peace with Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is odds-on now.Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
Gove 4/1
Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
If it started with him then maybe it's poetic that it ends with him, whatever that end is.0 -
Of course we are behind the curve.Scott_P said:
The Americans have had their requirements on their web site for months (and take note, anyone who thinks you should keep the other side guessing in negotiations) whereas we have Liam Fox.0 -
Shameless stuff. I won't ask how dumb he thinks everyone is to believe it, because it works, so he is right.Scott_P said:0 -
Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?Scott_P said:0 -
So Conservatives are saying that we must achieve Brexit or the Conservative party will be destroyed; but I haven't heard any of them say that we must achieve Brexit because that is what is best for the economy and integrity of the UK.
The obvious reason for them not saying that is that there is no evidence that Brexit would be best for the economy and integrity of the UK. so it's all about self interest.
And that's a really good reason to consign the Conservatives to history. When David Owen's SDP were beaten by the Official Monster Raving Loonies in a by election, that was the end of the SDP. So come on good people of Peterborough, do your civic duty on Thursday. Vote Loony, the only sensible thing to do.
(Sorry if you have already read this; originally accidentally posted on an old thread)0 -
I do miss the reports of potential leadership candidates having telephone lines installed.
Showing my age.0 -
I'm kind of done with identity politics.DecrepitJohnL said:
If I were CCHQ I'd worry about the optics of all stale, male and pale hustings. The 1922 really has got this all wrong, with the month-long resignation of Theresa May contrasting with the sudden faux urgency and late rule change.Casino_Royale said:Come on, Andrea, drop out and piss off.
If she's not good enough to make the cut she's not good enough to make the cut.
I think both Mordaunt and McVey would make more compelling candidates but they're not at the party.0 -
Foolscap.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
My wife is a Northern Scot from a fishing community and Gove has Scottish fishing connections. My family really like his work as Environment Food and Rural affairs Secretary and his performances recently at the dispatch box have been very powerfulThe_Taxman said:
Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for GoveThe_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.
Furthermore, he is not Boris and a brexiteer is needed as PM0 -
Really? Boris seems to be difficult to keep out of the top 2 based on known declarations and where followers of ones like Raab will likely fall.DecrepitJohnL said:0 -
Personally I don't want any of our politicians negotiating trade deals.DecrepitJohnL said:
Of course we are behind the curve.Scott_P said:
The Americans have had their requirements on their web site for months (and take note, anyone who thinks you should keep the other side guessing in negotiations) whereas we have Liam Fox.0 -
A comment for simplicity's sake: For each candidate there is, realistically, only one question which they need to answer convincingly, unambiguously and without unicorns: What is your plan which is (a) not TM's deal (b) will be agreed by the EU (c) delivers Brexit and (d) convinces us that it will pass through the Commons and the Lords, and how are you to persuade us that you are right?0
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Sorry boss, it was crap.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not feeling the love for my awesome line of 'May really does end in June."
My ego needs constant adoration.
(Awaits ban hammer)0 -
A core vote strategy if Brexit is not delivered will probably be employed by the Tories. I suspect the Tories can bank 30% + of the vote as they did in 1997 and 2001 against Blair who was a much harder opponent from the Tory perspective compared to say Corbyn. If Brexit is delivered I still think a core vote strategy will be required mainly focused on an economic offer. I suppose it depends on the type of Brexit and any disruption associated with it.Casino_Royale said:
Either the Conservatives win an election in the 30s or lose catastrophically badly in the teens, IMHO.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12MarqueeMark said:What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf
I don't see much inbetween.0 -
Far too sophisticated a reference for me to know if he would indeed do so.dodrade said:
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?kle4 said:
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.Scott_P said:
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.0 -
There would be so many ridiculously tight contests though....could be twenty short, majority of 40.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12MarqueeMark said:What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf0 -
I have too but I wont vote for him but rather look like Boris is well on the way to being PMCasino_Royale said:
I've made peace with Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is odds-on now.Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
Gove 4/1
Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
If it started with him then maybe it's poetic that it ends with him, whatever that end is.
One benefit is he will give Corbyn a run for his money0 -
Is Trumpton still here?0
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Gove is the only one who could be a radical transformative PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife is a Northern Scot from a fishing community and Gove has Scottish fishing connections. My family really like his work as Environment Food and Rural affairs Secretary and his performances recently at the dispatch box have been very powerfulThe_Taxman said:
Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for GoveThe_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.
Furthermore, he is not Boris and a brexiteer is needed as PM
The rest are just continuity May or Cameron/Blair. Or mad.0 -
that would be the twentiesCasino_Royale said:
Either the Conservatives win an election in the 30s or lose catastrophically badly in the teens, IMHO.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12MarqueeMark said:What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf
I don't see much inbetween.0 -
Most people, MPs definitely included, are cowards. Faced with difficult reality or a pleasant fantasy, or faced with belief it won't be so bad to give in vs certain defeat, they'd rather give in. Just look at Labour MPs who think moaning about Corbyn means anything when they want to make him PM, the same will happen with most Tory MPs.Theuniondivvie said:'for the first time I’m getting concerned about my long standing laying of Boris, although the first phase of this contest will be determined by if Boris Johnson is a transfer friendly candidate.'
I think the canary in the coalmine should be the PB Tories who have long considered Boris entirely unsuitable to lead the party and told us so endlessly, but who are now reconciling themselves to him.
Why should MPs be different, particularly with the (somewhat conjectural) bonus of job preservation?0 -
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores_Anazina_ said:Is Trumpton still here?
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H IV part 2 I think. Might be H V though.kle4 said:
Far too sophisticated a reference for me to know if he would indeed do so.dodrade said:
Could Boris upon coming to power "turn away his former self" as Prince Hal did?kle4 said:
He's just annoying me. All this nonsense about how all you have to do is 'put it to bed' and the like, they all know that, they just don't have the numbers to do so and still would not under the Boris premiership.Scott_P said:
Why is 'we must do something' winning over so many Tory MPs? Even May knew that was true, it didn't help.
Yes I know I am not the target audience for the contest, but I did vote Leave and Tory in 2017, and he's pissing me off royally by pretending a perky attitude gets you past Baker, Grieve, the DUP and the rest of the shits.0 -
Remember, you have to be a member for at least 3 months before having voting rights. That should exclude a fair number of entryists.The_Taxman said:
Its a possibility, mind you I would have thought if the other members of the Tories or TBP become aware of dual membership they will be expelled. The Tories certainly would and I know of Local Conservative parties in the past who have had to take action against infiltrators as it is usually common knowledge if people were active in other political parties.alex. said:
What about all the BXP infiltrators who might decide to vote in the perceived interests of their party, as opposed for the most Brexity candidate?The_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.
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Back of a fag packet if it is FarageSunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Thanks, I suppose he is quite effective. I always think he is trying to hard to be reasonable though as he is pretty machiavellian! Mind you it worked for the fictitious Francis Urquhart so it might work for Gove.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife is a Northern Scot from a fishing community and Gove has Scottish fishing connections. My family really like his work as Environment Food and Rural affairs Secretary and his performances recently at the dispatch box have been very powerfulThe_Taxman said:
Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for GoveThe_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.
Furthermore, he is not Boris and a brexiteer is needed as PM0 -
Without unicorns? How are they to win a members vote without that?!algarkirk said:A comment for simplicity's sake: For each candidate there is, realistically, only one question which they need to answer convincingly, unambiguously and without unicorns: What is your plan which is (a) not TM's deal (b) will be agreed by the EU (c) delivers Brexit and (d) convinces us that it will pass through the Commons and the Lords, and how are you to persuade us that you are right?
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Its a very 1990s reference - post privatisation, pre mobiles.SandyRentool said:I do miss the reports of potential leadership candidates having telephone lines installed.
Showing my age.
In the leadership contests of the 1970s it would have taken six months for the Post Office to install a telephone.0 -
One rather dependent on Labour and LDs staying precisely level too. Put the LDs up 3 or 4 and they will win plenty more, mostly from the Tories. Put Labour up 3 or 4 and they keep a lot more. Many from the Tories.MarqueeMark said:
There would be so many ridiculously tight contests though....could be twenty short, majority of 40.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Electoral Calculas. Conservative majority of 12MarqueeMark said:What the hell kind of Parliament would PM Boris getting 29%, Labour 22%, LibDems 22%, Brexit Party 13% gives us? (Guido obtained private YouGov polling with the "Boris bounce")
https://order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LordBell_190529_VotingIntentions_w1.pdf0 -
Is Farage now a country or something? What the fuck does he think he is doing?another_richard said:
Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?Scott_P said:
More than a touch of hubris going on, I feel.
I hope we don't have to wait long for nemesis.0 -
Don’t forget the beer mat for the finer details.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Back of a fag packet if it is FarageSunil_Prasannan said:0 -
To do that he would need to win an election to get a majority. And sadly he's unelectable...TGOHF said:
Gove is the only one who could be a radical transformative PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My wife is a Northern Scot from a fishing community and Gove has Scottish fishing connections. My family really like his work as Environment Food and Rural affairs Secretary and his performances recently at the dispatch box have been very powerfulThe_Taxman said:
Why Gove if you don't mind me asking just out of interest?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Both my wife and I retain our membership and hope that we can vote for GoveThe_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.
Furthermore, he is not Boris and a brexiteer is needed as PM0 -
What does it matter if he acts more mature before the MPs if his plan is still just ruling out all options (even ones not within his power to rule out) other than believing hard enough? Their positions can be pretty darn detailed and still not be feasible.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is odds-on now.Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
Gove 4/1
Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath0 -
Wasn't the entryism campaign by Leave.EU started 6 months ago? At the time it may have been to vote for a Brextremist. Intentions may have changed in the interim.JohnO said:
Remember, you have to be a member for at least 3 months before having voting rights. That should exclude a fair number of entryists.The_Taxman said:
Its a possibility, mind you I would have thought if the other members of the Tories or TBP become aware of dual membership they will be expelled. The Tories certainly would and I know of Local Conservative parties in the past who have had to take action against infiltrators as it is usually common knowledge if people were active in other political parties.alex. said:
What about all the BXP infiltrators who might decide to vote in the perceived interests of their party, as opposed for the most Brexity candidate?The_Taxman said:
It would be interesting to know how many real Tory members quit over not delivering Brexit as it could have ramifications for the leadership ballot. People confuse voter anger for member anger. I know many Tory members are Eurosceptic but there are also people who are members for economic/Social/ Traditional and Hereditary reasons (By this I mean people who have just become Tory members because that is the social situation they were born into and they are not ideologically driven).GIN1138 said:
He has no chance with Con members. Whichever Brexiteer he's up against with the membership he'll lose to (except maybe Gove)Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Waste of money.0 -
He will achieve his destiny to destroy the Conservatives soon enough, and then we can focus on worrying about Corbyn.Cyclefree said:
Is Farage now a country or something? What the fuck does he think he is doing?another_richard said:
Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?Scott_P said:
More than a touch of hubris going on, I feel.
I hope we don't have to wait long for nemesis.0 -
Some racy stories in Michael Wolff's second book in his series on Trump including the President telling confidents Nikki Haley had performed a lewd act on him and Trump's boast as to why he does not need Viagra
https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/books/siege-trump-under-fire-by-michael-wolff-book-review-a4158336.html0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veIQe5xPqmc_Anazina_ said:Is Trumpton still here?
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No wonder Melania feels the need to get back at him with all her strange outfits at regular intervals.HYUFD said:Some racy stories in Michael Wolff's second book in his series on Trump including the President telling confidents Nikki Haley had performed a lewd act on him and Trump's boast as to why he does not need Viagra
https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/books/siege-trump-under-fire-by-michael-wolff-book-review-a4158336.html0 -
When Boris gets elected you were supposed to be leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have too but I wont vote for him but rather look like Boris is well on the way to being PMCasino_Royale said:
I've made peace with Boris.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Nicky Morgan has just said on Sky that Boris was much more serious in his presentation to tonight's hustings. She went on to say that candidates are having to explain their positions in detail.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is odds-on now.Andrew said:Market seems to really like Jezza the Hunt after today's changes.
Boris 10/11 or evens in a couple of places
Gove 4/1
Hunt 8/1
I'm green on Hunt, break even on Gove and am red on Boris.
Maybe we will see a more mature Boris but I am not holding my breath
If it started with him then maybe it's poetic that it ends with him, whatever that end is.
One benefit is he will give Corbyn a run for his money0 -
He does drink a lot of alcohol, he might be deluded! He must realise the Brexit media are using him to force the Tories into delivering Brexit. But if he is deluded he will think it is the real deal....Cyclefree said:
Is Farage now a country or something? What the fuck does he think he is doing?another_richard said:
Doesn't Farage know that DD and OwenPatz have already negotiated a trade deal with Oklahoma ?Scott_P said:
More than a touch of hubris going on, I feel.
I hope we don't have to wait long for nemesis.0
