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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Andy Warhol was wrong, in the future everyone will stand to be Tory leader
I am running to be Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister – go to https://t.co/MShWaI9qmR to join the journey of national renewal. #BackSamsPlan pic.twitter.com/7mVkytZAm6
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> Definitely not first.
You're not the first to be wrong about being first you know.
> It's good everyone is running. If two dozen run then around 1-2 will have actual ideas, not just slogans and an upbeat attitude.
And will likely be eliminated in the first couple of rounds...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0
> > @Nigelb said:
> > Definitely not first.
>
> You're not the first to be wrong about being first you know.
Though if I had been referring to the redoubtable Mr. Gyimah’s chances...
(And I was relying on TSE’s known fondness for modesty to persuade him not to manipulate the results this time.)
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @Nigelb said:
> > > Definitely not first.
> >
> > You're not the first to be wrong about being first you know.
>
> Though if I had been referring to the redoubtable Mr. Gyimah’s chances...
>
>
You'd not be the last to condemn him to last place.
> Definitely not first.
Correct, you were zeroth.
Appeal overturned on review, and 15 runs...
> If my maths are correct, with 13 candidates and 313 MPs you would need at least 24 votes to guarantee not being knocked out in the first round.
In 1997 there was a tie and the first round had to be rerun because Davis and Ancram refused to drop out. There must be a good chance of another tie this time.
> Definitely not first.
Bit like the tories then....
> Hi TSE -- you should have been here last night -- we were all watching a football match that BT streamed live on Youtube.
That's not really his bag, to be honest.
> Definitely not first.
>
> Wrong again Nigel
You’re late to the party, malcolm.
If Boris had done that in 2016, he might well be the prime minister meeting President Trump. Likewise Andrea Leadsom.
Mrs Paradock goes .. to answer the knock. ..
Mrs Paradock There's somebody at the door wanting you to form a government
Bro Paradock looks at her in astonishment. Several seconds elapse.
Mr Paradock What does he look like?
Mrs Paradock He says he's working through the street directory.
Pause
Simpson was a leading exponent of the "theatre of absurd".
62 years ahead of his time.
No way would Boris have made the final two. That's why he didn't stand.
twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1134537560691290112
> Re dropping out. After last time when Theresa May won by default after everyone else dropped out, I suspect even candidates with fewer votes than declared supporters will be tempted to hang around and see what happens.
>
>
>
> If Boris had done that in 2016, he might well be the prime minister meeting President Trump. Likewise Andrea Leadsom.
>
> That is a very strange characterisation of what happened. She didn't 'win by default' she won a second ballot so overwhelmingly that the second placed candidate withdrew.
>
> No way would Boris have made the final two. That's why he didn't stand.
Your reckon? I always thought it odd that Boris dropped out because of Gove. It might have been close, but surely leadsom's support was boosted greatly by Boris dropping out.
It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
By deciding not to stand, he built up a Brown-style dolschstoss myth that really it was his time and that nasty Gove stole it from him.
But in any case, the point is irrelevant. May won because she had the support of as near as dammit 2/3 of the PCP on the second ballot and Boris would not have changed that.
> Too many of the candidates want to be and too few want to do.
Sounding a bit Tony there.
It is getting rather silly now. I think there ought to be the equivalent of lost deposit in order to discourage frivolous standing.
Something like - if you stand and don't make the final 20 you have to resign your seat and spend the first 6 months of your enforced inactivity watching CH 4 news on a loop.
> Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
>
> It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
Gove for me
He's been endorsed by Ken Clarke and that's good enough for me.
However I expect he won't make it to the final two so I'd back Gove.
> Your reckon? I always thought it odd that Boris dropped out because of Gove. It might have been close, but surely leadsom's support was boosted greatly by Boris dropping out.
>
> I don't think he would have done even if he had been the sole Leaver candidate. He was too mistrusted and too disliked, which is why Gove stood against him. Also, they had the horrible warning of Corbyn as to what happens when disorganised populists beloved of the grassroots who are simply not up to it become leader. Corbyn has since of course changed that narrative.
>
> By deciding not to stand, he built up a Brown-style dolschstoss myth that really it was his time and that nasty Gove stole it from him.
>
> But in any case, the point is irrelevant. May won because she had the support of as near as dammit 2/3 of the PCP on the second ballot and Boris would not have changed that.
I thought Leadsom dropped out after she said something about being a mother?
> > @another_richard said:
> > Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
> >
> > It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
>
> Gove for me
Are you willing to keep the tally ?
Spurs are where we were last year, after losing the Champions League final we went and backed Jurgen Klopp and spent £176 million improving the squad and look at us today.
Daniel Levy needs to get his chequebook out and back Poch.
> Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
>
> It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
Is it just for PB Conservative members or for all PB peeps?
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > Too many of the candidates want to be and too few want to do.
>
>
>
> Sounding a bit Tony there.
>
>
>
> It is getting rather silly now. I think there ought to be the equivalent of lost deposit in order to discourage frivolous standing.
>
>
>
> Something like - if you stand and don't make the final 20 you have to resign your seat and spend the first 6 months of your enforced inactivity watching CH 4 news on a loop.
>
> Blimey. You don't mess about when it comes to torture, do you?
☺
Well for a Tory I think that is indeed whips and chains.
Love it myself obviously, although Snow needs to hang up his whatevers now before he soils his ... legacy.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1135146694121840641
> > @another_richard said:
> > Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
> >
> > It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
>
> Gove for me
Snap. Head and shoulders.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
> > >
> > > It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
> >
> > Gove for me
>
> Snap. Head and shoulders.
Rory for me.
But I would take Gove of the likely Brexiteer front runners. He at least seems capable of being PM.
> Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
>
> It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
McVey all the way.
I'll simply put up the names in a sequence of posts and anyone who wants to vote simply "likes" that post.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
> > >
> > > It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
> >
> > Gove for me
>
> Snap. Head and shoulders.
Gove for me as well. He strikes me as the only one with the ability to get us out of the EU in the face of the huge Parliamentary opposition at the moment.
> Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
>
>
>
> It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
>
> I'm voting for Rory.
>
> He's been endorsed by Ken Clarke and that's good enough for me.
>
> However I expect he won't make it to the final two so I'd back Gove.
Are you really a Conservative party member?
> > @another_richard said:
> > Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
> >
> > It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think.
>
> McVey all the way.
I'm still pushing my WWF Royal Rumble rules idea. McVey as the winner having thrown runner up Graham Brady over the top rope would be fun
"Can I suggest a PB poll on the Conservative contenders.
It might be fun to compare what we think with what Conservative MPs think."
..................................................................................................................
Except the only more duplicitous electorate than Conservative MP's are the magisterial denizens of PB ....
(held up by a "spam block")
> This is some thread. Are we at a FPTP tipping point:
>
> https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1135146694121840641
The bit of the equation that he only touches on is the "I'll vote for the least worst option" part. Those who voted Ukip in 2015 clearly did not care which of Cameron or Miliband won. I'd include myself in that. That clearly changed in 2017.
We just don't know the circumstances in which the next GE will take place. But as things stand, I don't think saying "vote Brexit/Lib Dems and you'll get Corbyn/Tories" will be particularly effective for either the Tories or Labour.
> So far: Michael Gove 4, Rory Stewart 1
And a silent army of Boristas....
It I can imagine myself a Tory I would probably go for Cleverly and fall back to Hunt.
(I can't "Like" my own post)
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
>
> > 24th like Sam Gyimah
>
> >
>
> > Any chance of a professional review of the various candidates' videos?
>
>
>
> Are they available to be seen?
>
> Good question.
>
> Michael Gove's is
>
> Other than that, it might be a case of mining twitter feeds. There was some controversy about whether Rory was merely pretending to film himself.
>
> Dominic Raab put out this attacking Labour on antisemitism
> https://www.dominicraab2019.com/corbynsantisemitism
>
> (So far, only Sajid Javid has criticised Boris for Islamophobic language but I expect Dominic Raab will soon be all over it.)
>
> Update: this is Dominic Raab's campaign video:
I found Gove's to be trite self regarding and derivitive. It was like a test reel to see how you perform infront of a camera after you've finished a short course in presentation. Everything about it felt fake. I found it uncomfortable to watch 5/10.
Raab's was much better. More believable and better shot. It looked as though a professional had at least cast an eye over it. The exterior face to camera was interestingly framed in a 16x9 format and he looked relaxed. He focussed on what he planned to do rather than what he'd done. When you think who their electorate is anything else would have been unnecessary 7/10
https://twitter.com/AaronBell80/status/1134371933708066816
> I'm for Javid at the moment. The only one talking tax cuts and resolving the crime issue we have.
Talking about tax cuts is a little optimistic (I could put it a little stronger than that). Even many Conservative supporters will admit that services have been heavily cut, and with the consequences of Brexit coming along, plus I fear a downturn (whether caused by Brexit or not), then I see little room for any further cuts.
And 'resolving the crime issue' will be difficult with more funding for the police, the justice system and perhaps even social services. Without tax rises, that money will have to come from somewhere else. With tax cuts it just adds more pressure.
I'm also far from convinced that talking about tax cuts will play well with the GBP.
> NF Simpson's play "A resounding tinkle" (1957) starts with a knock on the door.
>
> Mrs Paradock goes .. to answer the knock. ..
> Mrs Paradock There's somebody at the door wanting you to form a government
> Bro Paradock looks at her in astonishment. Several seconds elapse.
> Mr Paradock What does he look like?
> Mrs Paradock He says he's working through the street directory.
> Pause
>
> Simpson was a leading exponent of the "theatre of absurd".
> 62 years ahead of his time.
---
I saw 'A Resounding Tinkle' a few years back.
It has not aged well -- definitely a play better read than performed.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > Re dropping out. After last time when Theresa May won by default after everyone else dropped out, I suspect even candidates with fewer votes than declared supporters will be tempted to hang around and see what happens.
> >
> >
> >
> > If Boris had done that in 2016, he might well be the prime minister meeting President Trump. Likewise Andrea Leadsom.
> >
> > That is a very strange characterisation of what happened. She didn't 'win by default' she won a second ballot so overwhelmingly that the second placed candidate withdrew.
> >
> > No way would Boris have made the final two. That's why he didn't stand.
>
> Your reckon? I always thought it odd that Boris dropped out because of Gove. It might have been close, but surely leadsom's support was boosted greatly by Boris dropping out.
I agree. It's nigh on impossible to judge the mood of the Parliamentary party from outside, but my view was always that he'd have survived the first round or two and it's likely plenty of the MPs would have come back to him as time passed and others (esp Gove) were knocked out. Personally I think he'd be PM now had he not given up.
Interestingly, there was one poll of Tory party members taken before Boris dropped out but after Cameron resigned - in a head to head matchup she won 55-38%.
Not if their vote total is derisory and/or they come over as pig-ignorant weapons.* It will be a battle of ego vs reality.
Not that It appears to have harmed people like Duncan-Smith, for whom we can add private sector sackable CV misleading.
Michael Gove 7, Rory Stewart 7, Esther McVey 1, Jeremy Hunt 1, James Cleverly 1(1), Sajid Javid (1), Mark Harper (1)
Thumbs down: Steve Baker 2, Graham Brady 1.
https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1135239661645893632
https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1135212911603924995
Edit - Apologies to Gorgeous George, they both worked in a pit.
> George being gorgeous.
>
> https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1135212911603924995
>
>
What's up with the extra punctuation in Isreal?
List could grow to 20, and non-runner dismisses some hopefuls as ‘vanity candidates’
Graham Brady, Penny Mordaunt, Priti Patel, Jesse Norman, Steve Baker, Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, and Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, have not ruled themselves out. Should all of these run, it would take the number of candidates to 20."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/02/tories-call-for-rule-change-as-13th-name-enters-leadership-race
> George being gorgeous.
>
> https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1135212911603924995
>
>
Leaving aside Galloway's usual and expected shittiness, I have a perhaps silly question: why does he put an umlaut above the 'e' of 'Israel' ?
I think I've seen it before somewhere, but it's not common here in the UK.
Edit: beaten by RobD. But at least I spelt 'Israel' correctly ...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/02/pollsters-blatant-dishonesty-brexit-ruining-public-trust/
#enjoy PB
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > George being gorgeous.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1135212911603924995
> >
> >
>
> What's up with the extra punctuation in Isreal?
I presume that's suppose to reproduce the Arabic pronunciation which always sounds like it has an extra glottal stop somewhere in it.