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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next month’s local and EU elections
To get a good sense of how voting intention polls are going I always think it is best to look at all the recent surveys to spot the trend. And this April there is one big and clear message – the Tories are in a mass as we edge towards next week’s local elections and of course the Euro Parliament elections three weeks later.
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Unsurprisingly really.
The Euro elections are basically a free hit, neither supporters of Leave or Remain have cause to support the Tories at this stage.0 -
Are all the brexitty members going to leave the Tories? Because that would seriously affect both the leadership outlook (not so no-deal-ish) and the ability to remove TMay (if the headbangers are gone, it's safe to hold an election).0
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The local elections may be more interesting in some ways, because they'll be more of a traditional battle between the three main parties, without the Brexit Party and the TIGers.asjohnstone said:Unsurprisingly really.
The Euro elections are basically a free hit, neither supporters of Leave or Remain have cause to support the Tories at this stage.0 -
They might well hang around long enough to make sure the party is beyond repair first.edmundintokyo said:Are all the brexitty members going to leave the Tories? Because that would seriously affect both the leadership outlook (not so no-deal-ish) and the ability to remove TMay (if the headbangers are gone, it's safe to hold an election).
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Off-topic: I do wonder how different the history of Northern Ireland would be if smartphones and the like had been around in the 1960s.
Bellingcat have got an article (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/04/19/an-open-source-survey-of-the-shooting-of-lyra-mckee/) on research into the shooting of lyra McKee, and it shows just how much open-source information was available.
If there had been another five or ten extra cameras around on Bloody Sunday, would it have proven one way or another who fired first (*), thrown more light on what happened, and made things like the Widgery whitewash impossible? Might it have eased, rather than escalated tensions in the long run?
(*) Not that that necessarily excuses the actions of the soldiers.0 -
Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.0
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If they'd announced that from the start it might have flown, too late to do it now though...DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
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No, they're not going to leave the party; they are going to take it over.Nigelb said:
They might well hang around long enough to make sure the party is beyond repair first.edmundintokyo said:Are all the brexitty members going to leave the Tories? Because that would seriously affect both the leadership outlook (not so no-deal-ish) and the ability to remove TMay (if the headbangers are gone, it's safe to hold an election).
It's entirely possible the vast bulk of conservative membership will vote against their own official candidates next month0 -
Absolutely agree. These elections really matter as they directly impact the provision of services to voters. The EU elections are all a bit theoretical.AndyJS said:
The local elections may be more interesting in some ways, because they'll be more of a traditional battle between the three main parties, without the Brexit Party and the TIGers.asjohnstone said:Unsurprisingly really.
The Euro elections are basically a free hit, neither supporters of Leave or Remain have cause to support the Tories at this stage.
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That’s hardly incompatible with what I said...asjohnstone said:
No, they're not going to leave the party; they are going to take it over.Nigelb said:
They might well hang around long enough to make sure the party is beyond repair first.edmundintokyo said:Are all the brexitty members going to leave the Tories? Because that would seriously affect both the leadership outlook (not so no-deal-ish) and the ability to remove TMay (if the headbangers are gone, it's safe to hold an election).
It's entirely possible the vast bulk of conservative membership will vote against their own official candidates next month
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Our biggest problem in a nutshell . The news May is to try unicorning again confirms they never believe the options will be reduced to two. If it could be then we would get an answer one way or another, but with extension and pretend party negotiations they'll never do that.rcs1000 said:
Similarly, I suspect much of the ERG - if the choice genuinely was between Remain and Deal - would choose the Deal.JackJack said:That may be the case but the only way parliament will vote for it is in a forced choice between deal and no deal. Just get Raab or whoever to fail to agree to any extension the week before the leave date and parliament will have to choose one way or another. The can kicking doesn't work with an unwilling PM.
It seems highly likely to me that Deal is the clear Condorcet winner, if the choices are No Deal, Deal, and Remain.
The problem is that the options the HoC believes they have in front of them are: Deal, No Deal, Unicorns, and Remain.
And, Unicorns keep winning.
And yes I call them pretend negotiations. The issues before our parties are difficult but not complex- they know the options in front of them, and it would not take long to discuss what each is prepared to do and not do, not even to assess potential party support for each option.
Likely, not just possible. The Tory party is the no deal Brexit party, its MPs just havent caught up with that. Baker and co are not wrong when they claim to speak for the members better than others even though there are holdouts.asjohnstone said:
No, they're not going to leave the party; they are going to take it over.Nigelb said:
They might well hang around long enough to make sure the party is beyond repair first.edmundintokyo said:Are all the brexitty members going to leave the Tories? Because that would seriously affect both the leadership outlook (not so no-deal-ish) and the ability to remove TMay (if the headbangers are gone, it's safe to hold an election).
It's entirely possible the vast bulk of conservative membership will vote against their own official candidates next month0 -
The local elections will be a practical demonstration of the fact that Brexit is utterly irrelevant to most of the problems facing Britain, but will nonetheless dominate our politics for the foreseeable future.0
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A world of difference between boycotting one by election and the EP elections. And on a practical level they have to accept we might be staying in and having zero MEPs does then no good.edmundintokyo said:
If they'd announced that from the start it might have flown, too late to do it now though...DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
Being third is I think survivable if humiliating, particularly if they hold up better than expected in the locals. But they really need to set their shit out before the elections to limit the damage.
Unfortunately they cannot sort their shit out without a Brexit resolution and they need labour for that, who have no reason to give them one.0 -
Jared Diamond has a new book out, which is not entirely irrelevant to the current contrite,ps:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/apr/21/jared-diamond-upheaval-migration-minorities-how-countries-solve-crisis
I didn’t realise he’s now in his 80s.0 -
How did contretemps become contrite,ps ??Nigelb said:Jared Diamond has a new book out, which is not entirely irrelevant to the current contrite,ps:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/apr/21/jared-diamond-upheaval-migration-minorities-how-countries-solve-crisis
I didn’t realise he’s now in his 80s.
Autocorrect surrealism.
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Her time always seems borrowed.0
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Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.0 -
its not about Conservatives boycotting elections, its about voters boycotting the ConservativesIanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.0 -
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FPT
williamglenn said:
Ezra Klein
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@ezraklein
That monopolies answer by Warren in her CNN townhall was killer. A master class is how to clearly explain a complex policy that’s without collapsing into jargon.
The idea that Warren isn’t a charismatic speaker is insane. This is the stuff people gushed over Bill Clinton for.
15.3K
1:15 AM - Apr 23, 2019
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3,460 people are talking about this
She's spot on about this. This sums it up for me:
"you can be the umpire in the baseball game and you can run an honest platform. Or you can be a player, that is, you can have a business or you can have a team in the game. But you don’t get to be the umpire and have a team in the game."
This is, in my view, one of the most urgent issues for the future competitiveness of western economies.0 -
Andy says Tories have led in 30 of last 46 polls though!!!0
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On topic there is no question that the Tories made a serious mistake not boycotting the Euro elections. Had they done so they would be facing less of a backlash in the local elections too.
Boycotting would have made them the party of Brexit giving Farage a real problem. Trying to get MEPs elected to a Parliament that their membership, activists and most of their supporters want absolutely nothing to do with is, well, stupid is the word that comes to mind.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.0 -
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.0 -
We are just starved of politicians who are able to articulate policy in a way that people can get. So many switch people off. From the same article:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.0 -
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.0 -
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:
We are just starved of politicians who are able to articulate policy in a way that people can get. So many switch people off. From the same article:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=190 -
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:
We are just starved of politicians who are able to articulate policy in a way that people can get. So many switch people off. From the same article:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
The interesting thing is Labour is also well down on the 40% it got at GE17 in almost all the above polls, the main shift is Tory to Brexit Party and UKIP rather than Tory to Corbyn Labour0
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No, they don't want to get more of their voters into the habit of voting Brexit Party or UKIP or indeeed CUK than they have toDecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
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Comres had Remain ahead even on eve of referendum.Foxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=200 -
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:
We are just starved of politicians who are able to articulate policy in a way that people can get. So many switch people off. From the same article:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
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Yes, I am sure that for CHUK, keeping May in the driving seat as the Tories head towards the cliffedge is in their interests.HYUFD said:0 -
It is unbelievably glib - as well as poor statistics - simply to dismiss one poll you don’t like purely on the back of performance in one earlier event. Who is to say what changes to method may have been made since then?HYUFD said:
Comres had Remain ahead even on eve of referendum.Foxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=200 -
Thanks. Minority Report had advertising boards in shops that welcomed you by name (courtesy of the great Philip K Dick of course). Sounds like it is not far off.Foxy said:
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:Morris_Dancer said:
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
So Brexit Party down by 4 points, and 6 weeks to go...HYUFD said:
Comres had Remain ahead even on eve of referendum.Foxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=200 -
The implications for the security services acting against organisations like the New IRA are potentially useful, but the potential for the commercial sector is rather more sinister.DavidL said:
Thanks. Minority Report had advertising boards in shops that welcomed you by name (courtesy of the great Philip K Dick of course). Sounds like it is not far off.Foxy said:
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:Morris_Dancer said:
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
It is also unbelievably complacent of Remainers like you to completely dismiss the Brexit Party and suggest we are heading for a landslide Remain victory in a second referendumIanB2 said:
It is unbelievably glib - as well as poor statistics - simply to dismiss one poll you don’t like purely on the back of performance in one earlier event. Who is to say what changes to method may have been made since then?HYUFD said:
Comres had Remain ahead even on eve of referendum.Foxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=200 -
Too late, anyway.DavidL said:On topic there is no question that the Tories made a serious mistake not boycotting the Euro elections. Had they done so they would be facing less of a backlash in the local elections too.
Boycotting would have made them the party of Brexit giving Farage a real problem. Trying to get MEPs elected to a Parliament that their membership, activists and most of their supporters want absolutely nothing to do with is, well, stupid is the word that comes to mind.
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I don't believe I have done either. All I have done is try to encourage you to think round things a little before filling these forums with your simplistic observations.HYUFD said:
It is also unbelievably complacent of Remainers like you to completely dismiss the Brexit Party and suggest we are heading for a landslide Remain victory in a second referendumIanB2 said:
It is unbelievably glib - as well as poor statistics - simply to dismiss one poll you don’t like purely on the back of performance in one earlier event. Who is to say what changes to method may have been made since then?HYUFD said:
Comres had Remain ahead even on eve of referendum.Foxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=200 -
The counter-terrorism game has certainly moved on since the good old days. From 2023 the RAF will have an armed drone (MQ-9B) that they can have over the 6 counties 24/7.Foxy said:
The implications for the security services acting against organisations like the New IRA are potentially useful, but the potential for the commercial sector is rather more sinister.0 -
But the growth potential for the blackmail industry is enormous. Especially when it gets easier and easier to put your face on someone else's body.Foxy said:
The implications for the security services acting against organisations like the New IRA are potentially useful, but the potential for the commercial sector is rather more sinister.DavidL said:
Thanks. Minority Report had advertising boards in shops that welcomed you by name (courtesy of the great Philip K Dick of course). Sounds like it is not far off.Foxy said:
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:Morris_Dancer said:
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
As opposed to your PhD analysis completely ignoring the fact Comres was very wrong before the last referendum so why should we trust them as gospel this time?IanB2 said:
I don't believe I have done either. All I have done is try to encourage you to think round things a little before filling these forums with your simplistic observations.HYUFD said:
It is also unbelievably complacent of Remainers like you to completely dismiss the Brexit Party and suggest we are heading for a landslide Remain victory in a second referendumIanB2 said:
It is unbelievably glib - as well as poor statistics - simply to dismiss one poll you don’t like purely on the back of performance in one earlier event. Who is to say what changes to method may have been made since then?HYUFD said:
Comres had Remain ahead even on eve of referendum.Foxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=20
The final EUref Comres in 2016 had Remain 8% ahead
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum0 -
That's not all that's changed: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/not-in-our-name-rip-lyra-new-graffiti-in-derry-signals-change-1.3868485Dura_Ace said:
The counter-terrorism game has certainly moved on since the good old days. From 2023 the RAF will have an armed drone (MQ-9B) that they can have over the 6 counties 24/7.Foxy said:
The implications for the security services acting against organisations like the New IRA are potentially useful, but the potential for the commercial sector is rather more sinister.0 -
It's ironical that for the first time politicians are really interested in who gets most seats in the Euros, precisely at the moment when it probably won't affect any legislation regardless of who wins.asjohnstone said:
Absolutely agree. These elections really matter as they directly impact the provision of services to voters. The EU elections are all a bit theoretical.AndyJS said:
The local elections may be more interesting in some ways, because they'll be more of a traditional battle between the three main parties, without the Brexit Party and the TIGers.asjohnstone said:Unsurprisingly really.
The Euro elections are basically a free hit, neither supporters of Leave or Remain have cause to support the Tories at this stage.
The poll variation displayed on this thread is startling, partly down to the Lab/Green split. On the YouGov figures the Green will win several seats. On the ComRes figures a Green vote will probably be almost entirely wasted in terms of seats, as will CHUK, LibDem and UKIP. The BREX figures may reflect whether Farage was getting more coverage when the poll was taken - the previous figures may well reflect the launch coverage.0 -
We have a government not worthy of the name ... and then we have this
https://order-order.com/2019/04/23/341262/0 -
If that is the case, then i am no longer a Tory, and as I cannot ever vote for Corbtn, that leaves a pretty bleak future for this country.kle4 said:
Our biggest problem in a nutshell . The news May is to try unicorning again confirms they never believe the options will be reduced to two. If it could be then we would get an answer one way or another, but with extension and pretend party negotiations they'll never do that.rcs1000 said:
Similarly, I suspect much of the ERG - if the choice genuinely was between Remain and Deal - would choose the Deal.JackJack said:That may be the case but the only way parliament will vote for it is in a forced choice between deal and no deal. Just get Raab or whoever to fail to agree to any extension the week before the leave date and parliament will have to choose one way or another. The can kicking doesn't work with an unwilling PM.
It seems highly likely to me that Deal is the clear Condorcet winner, if the choices are No Deal, Deal, and Remain.
The problem is that the options the HoC believes they have in front of them are: Deal, No Deal, Unicorns, and Remain.
And, Unicorns keep winning.
And yes I call them pretend negotiations. The issues before our parties are difficult but not complex- they know the options in front of them, and it would not take long to discuss what each is prepared to do and not do, not even to assess potential party support for each option.
Likely, not just possible. The Tory party is the no deal Brexit party, its MPs just havent caught up with that. Baker and co are not wrong when they claim to speak for the members better than others even though there are holdouts.asjohnstone said:
No, they're not going to leave the party; they are going to take it over.Nigelb said:
They might well hang around long enough to make sure the party is beyond repair first.edmundintokyo said:Are all the brexitty members going to leave the Tories? Because that would seriously affect both the leadership outlook (not so no-deal-ish) and the ability to remove TMay (if the headbangers are gone, it's safe to hold an election).
It's entirely possible the vast bulk of conservative membership will vote against their own official candidates next month0 -
Yep - we are fucked - great legacy Cameron and May.Slackbladder said:
If that is the case, then i am no longer a Tory, and as I cannot ever vote for Corbtn, that leaves a pretty bleak future for this country.kle4 said:
Our biggest problem in a nutshell . The news May is to try unicorning again confirms they never believe the options will be reduced to two. If it could be then we would get an answer one way or another, but with extension and pretend party negotiations they'll never do that.rcs1000 said:
Similarly, I suspect much of the ERG - if the choice genuinely was between Remain and Deal - would choose the Deal.JackJack said:That may be the case but the only way parliament will vote for it is in a forced choice between deal and no deal. Just get Raab or whoever to fail to agree to any extension the week before the leave date and parliament will have to choose one way or another. The can kicking doesn't work with an unwilling PM.
It seems highly likely to me that Deal is the clear Condorcet winner, if the choices are No Deal, Deal, and Remain.
The problem is that the options the HoC believes they have in front of them are: Deal, No Deal, Unicorns, and Remain.
And, Unicorns keep winning.
And yes I call them pretend negotiations. The issues before our parties are difficult but not complex- they know the options in front of them, and it would not take long to discuss what each is prepared to do and not do, not even to assess potential party support for each option.
Likely, not just possible. The Tory party is the no deal Brexit party, its MPs just havent caught up with that. Baker and co are not wrong when they claim to speak for the members better than others even though there are holdouts.asjohnstone said:
No, they're not going to leave the party; they are going to take it over.Nigelb said:
They might well hang around long enough to make sure the party is beyond repair first.edmundintokyo said:Are all the brexitty members going to leave the Tories? Because that would seriously affect both the leadership outlook (not so no-deal-ish) and the ability to remove TMay (if the headbangers are gone, it's safe to hold an election).
It's entirely possible the vast bulk of conservative membership will vote against their own official candidates next month0 -
And people for some reason think labour wont be fine in the euros . Even second would be no big dealFoxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=190 -
I see the new IRA think Brexit and hard border already happened.0
-
They could... But #FRIT springs to mind.DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
0 -
They've got a good 5 years, there has to be some chance that Brexit will be cancelled within that time.NickPalmer said:
It's ironical that for the first time politicians are really interested in who gets most seats in the Euros, precisely at the moment when it probably won't affect any legislation regardless of who wins.
I mean, the PM thinks it's dumb, all the member states think it's dumb, business leaders think it's dumb, trade union leaders think it's dumb, it's only happening because the voters thought it was clever, but per available polling, the voters now also think it's dumb. Added to which, nobody knows how to do it.
I know indefinite Gimp Remain is the path of least resistance, but as a prolonged state of affairs it's also *extremely* dumb, no matter what you think of brexit.0 -
I am not complacent, but these are certainly not easy elections to poll for. Turnout and certainty to vote have no real precedent and make massive assumptions that render the raw data to pieces.HYUFD said:
It is also unbelievably complacent of Remainers like you to completely dismiss the Brexit Party and suggest we are heading for a landslide Remain victory in a second referendumIanB2 said:
It is unbelievably glib - as well as poor statistics - simply to dismiss one poll you don’t like purely on the back of performance in one earlier event. Who is to say what changes to method may have been made since then?HYUFD said:
Comres had Remain ahead even on eve of referendum.Foxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=20
Then there is the tactical element, so in the East Midlands I am torn between my party, the Greens (best placed to take a Remain seat) and Labour, who have put up decent candidates and under Dehondt best placed to kick the Tories and UKIP in the arse.0 -
Ed Miliband came second in the 2014 Euros behind UKIP, fat lot of good it did him in 2015kle4 said:
And people for some reason think labour wont be fine in the euros . Even second would be no big dealFoxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=190 -
But you point out the problem with the strategy. We still have David Davis.DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
0 -
Fundamentally Google and Amazon are natural monopolies. As such they should be regulated like utilities and only allowed a limited return on capital.DavidL said:
We are just starved of politicians who are able to articulate policy in a way that people can get. So many switch people off. From the same article:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.
(As an aside I saw my 21 year old cousin over the weekend. He tells me that none of the 18 year olds he knows are on Facebook. FWIW)0 -
I would walk straight out of any shop that did that and I’m sure I wouldn’t be alone in finding it unacceptable. It wouldn’t take long for retailers to get the message.DavidL said:
Thanks. Minority Report had advertising boards in shops that welcomed you by name (courtesy of the great Philip K Dick of course). Sounds like it is not far off.Foxy said:
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:Morris_Dancer said:
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
If they said that they are breaking the law.Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:
We are just starved of politicians who are able to articulate policy in a way that people can get. So many switch people off. From the same article:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e
It would be predatory pricing0 -
Morning all
Boycotting elections is part of the political game - when Zac Goldsmith resigned the Conservative Party and vowed to stand as an Independent in Richmond Park, the Conservatives opted not to put up a candidate against him. This enabled Conservative activists to work for Goldsmith without any issue since, as I understand it, if your Party isn't standing in an election, as an activist you are free to work for another candidate if you so wish.
I'm sure this May there will be many local examples of Parties not contesting seats against certain Independents.
In the EU Referendum, the official position of the Conservative Party was one of neutrality which meant that while the Conservative PM backed REMAIN it was perfectly possible for Conservative MPs and activists to support LEAVE as they weren't actively working against their own party which is a hanging offence in all parties.
Boycotting the EU elections would free up Conservative members and activists to campaign for the Brexit Party but would mean no Conservative MEPs elected. As I understand it, even voting against the candidates of your party is awkward if you are a member or activist but of course that can never be proved. If, however, as a Conservative activist you publicly work for the candidates of another party, I'd have thought that would warrant suspension if not expulsion.
Choosing not to work for your own party's candidates in a given election on the other hand may disappoint the Party at national or even local level but it's your time and energy and if you don't want to that's up to you.0 -
It might be against the law, but it doesn't help you when they have much more deeper pockets for lawyers than you do.Charles said:
If they said that they are breaking the law.Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:
We are just starved of politicians who are able to articulate policy in a way that people can get. So many switch people off. From the same article:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e
It would be predatory pricing0 -
What message? The supermarket already knows what you buy, because you stick all your shopping in the same trolley. Then you pay by card so they know you are you. If you use a loyalty points card, they know your address as well but that is the least important part.Streeter said:
I would walk straight out of any shop that did that and I’m sure I wouldn’t be alone in finding it unacceptable. It wouldn’t take long for retailers to get the message.DavidL said:
Thanks. Minority Report had advertising boards in shops that welcomed you by name (courtesy of the great Philip K Dick of course). Sounds like it is not far off.Foxy said:
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:Morris_Dancer said:
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e
ETA: they might even know your car thanks to anpr in the supermarket car park. I don't know if anyone goes to the trouble of correlating customers with car registration numbers but they could.
But yes, saying "Welcome back Steve" would be too in-your-face for most customers!0 -
High Street retailers have other issues. The number of people walking into physical shops is not growing rapidlyStreeter said:I would walk straight out of any shop that did that and I’m sure I wouldn’t be alone in finding it unacceptable. It wouldn’t take long for retailers to get the message.
0 -
Someone got very excited last night about Pete Buttigieg. He got backed as low as 4.6 for the Democrat nomination.0
-
A pretty obvious lay then.AlastairMeeks said:Someone got very excited last night about Pete Buttigieg. He got backed as low as 4.6 for the Democrat nomination.
0 -
It's a subtle balance, isn't it? I really like Eritrean food and I'd be quite pleased to get a text saying "You are just 500 metres from an Eritrean restaurant at High Road 43." Similarly I don't mind getting a moderate amount of spam on computer games as I'm interested in what's coming out. But personalising is intrusive in a very American way, like the staff in restaurants who say ,"Hi, I'm Cindy, and I'm gonna make sure you have a great time today!" It's the false chumminess that I react against, not the relevant information.Streeter said:
I would walk straight out of any shop that did that and I’m sure I wouldn’t be alone in finding it unacceptable. It wouldn’t take long for retailers to get the message.DavidL said:
Thanks. Minority Report had advertising boards in shops that welcomed you by name (courtesy of the great Philip K Dick of course). Sounds like it is not far off.Foxy said:
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:Morris_Dancer said:
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
As it happens, I managed to lay all I wanted at 5.3. The usual mixed emotion about having got a good price and wishing I'd got the very best one.Peter_the_Punter said:
A pretty obvious lay then.AlastairMeeks said:Someone got very excited last night about Pete Buttigieg. He got backed as low as 4.6 for the Democrat nomination.
0 -
That’s why I’d be surprised if they said it - it would be black and white evidence. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did itSlackbladder said:
It might be against the law, but it doesn't help you when they have much more deeper pockets for lawyers than you do.Charles said:
If they said that they are breaking the law.Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:
We are just starved of politicians who are able to articulate policy in a way that people can get. So many switch people off. From the same article:Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. L, sounds like an interesting answer.
Also, Vanilla decided to sign me out. Lovely.
"Warren explained it clearly by using a hypothetical brand called “Pet Pillows” selling their doggie goods on Amazon:
Every time you go to buy something, they get your information and they aggregate it with the other information they had about you. Every time you come to sell something, they get information. And then they see that, whoa, over there it looks like Pet Pillows is starting to make a big profit. Huh, says Amazon. I know what we’ll do. Let’s jump in front of Pet Pillows and do “Amazon pet pillows” and move Pet Pillows from the front page back to page 16. And the consequence is that Amazon, because of its superior information, can come in and knock out all of the [competition] ...
Here’s what we know: As a consequence of this ... the area around these giants are referred to by venture capitalists, investors, as the “dead zone” — because it means you try to start up a business, you just run the risk that Amazon steps in front of you or Google steps in front of you or they buy you out before you have a chance to get started."
Last year the investments our pension funds had in these tech giants went up 20%. 20% growth in the largest companies in the world. That is either the biggest bubble of all time or recognition of the power of monopoly. It needs to be stopped.
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e
It would be predatory pricing0 -
Meanwhile last month's man Beto O'Rourke was last matched at 25.
Anyone care to speculate on who next month's flavour of the month might be?0 -
It's possible for the Conservative Party to do ok at the Locals if voters decide to vote on local issues and the quality of candidates rather than for tribal reasons.
I've often thought this is the way it should be. You shouldn't vote in the locals on the performance of the Westminster bunch; it makes no sense and encourages poor local government. The practical problem is that it's difficult for the ordinary Joe and Joanna to assess just how well his and her local Council is performing, and which if any of the Councillors are worth supporting regardless of Party.
I will be voting in Tewkesbury's Council Elections for the first time in May. The Council is pretty much solid Tory and my general impression is that it does a decent job. I am intrigued to note that two of the Candidates that stood and won last time as Conservatives are standing as Independents this time round and opposing the official Blue Rosettes.
No, I don't know what the back story is but will do some research. Meanwhile, if anyone here can help.....0 -
I think you’re writing off Pete too early. I expect the primaries to turn into a contest between Bernie and a moderate. Assuming Biden self-destructs, I don’t see which of the moderates is more appealing.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile last month's man Beto O'Rourke was last matched at 25.
Anyone care to speculate on who next month's flavour of the month might be?0 -
As I said, it is idiotic to promote or dismiss a polling company because of one incidence of past performance. ComRes was the closest of the BPO companies for GE2015, which would equally be no reason to big up its latest findings. Do try to find a sounder basis for your commentary.HYUFD said:
As opposed to your PhD analysis completely ignoring the fact Comres was very wrong before the last referendum so why should we trust them as gospel this time?IanB2 said:
I don't believe I have done either. All I have done is try to encourage you to think round things a little before filling these forums with your simplistic observations.HYUFD said:
It is also unbelievably complacent of Remainers like you to completely dismiss the Brexit Party and suggest we are heading for a landslide Remain victory in a second referendumIanB2 said:
It is unbelievably glib - as well as poor statistics - simply to dismiss one poll you don’t like purely on the back of performance in one earlier event. Who is to say what changes to method may have been made since then?HYUFD said:
Comres had Remain ahead even on eve of referendum.Foxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
BoyDecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=19
Yougov has the Brexit Party ahead and was very accurate in the 2014 European Parliament elections
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118642347984683009?s=20
The final EUref Comres in 2016 had Remain 8% ahead
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum0 -
Nobody ever buys at the bottom, or sells at the top. You should know that, Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:
As it happens, I managed to lay all I wanted at 5.3. The usual mixed emotion about having got a good price and wishing I'd got the very best one.Peter_the_Punter said:
A pretty obvious lay then.AlastairMeeks said:Someone got very excited last night about Pete Buttigieg. He got backed as low as 4.6 for the Democrat nomination.
(Why is Vanilla logging me out each time I post?)0 -
Oh, and more relevantly to here, I hate those political letters that are mock-personalised. "Nick, it's really important to vote next Thursday. We know you want to stop the Tories, Nick, and this is your chance to do it." Do they think we're idiots that we don't know about mail merge?NickPalmer said:
It's a subtle balance, isn't it? I really like Eritrean food and I'd be quite pleased to get a text saying "You are just 500 metres from an Eritrean restaurant at High Road 43." Similarly I don't mind getting a moderate amount of spam on computer games as I'm interested in what's coming out. But personalising is intrusive in a very American way, like the staff in restaurants who say ,"Hi, I'm Cindy, and I'm gonna make sure you have a great time today!" It's the false chumminess that I react against, not the relevant information.0 -
It's a stretch, but what about Jay Inslee?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile last month's man Beto O'Rourke was last matched at 25.
Anyone care to speculate on who next month's flavour of the month might be?
He's standing explicitly on a single-issue campaign on climate change, hoping to receive enough donations to make the debates and try to put climate change higher up the political agenda. Suppose the Extinction Rebellion protests were to spread to the US in a major way there would be a wave for someone to ride.0 -
Or the London hotel receptionist turning to one’s wife and saying “we have put a feather pillow on your side of the bed, as you asked for when you both checked in to our Paris hotel last week...” Which is a shame as one’s wife wasn’t with you in Paris.NickPalmer said:
It's a subtle balance, isn't it? I really like Eritrean food and I'd be quite pleased to get a text saying "You are just 500 metres from an Eritrean restaurant at High Road 43." Similarly I don't mind getting a moderate amount of spam on computer games as I'm interested in what's coming out. But personalising is intrusive in a very American way, like the staff in restaurants who say ,"Hi, I'm Cindy, and I'm gonna make sure you have a great time today!" It's the false chumminess that I react against, not the relevant information.Streeter said:
I would walk straight out of any shop that did that and I’m sure I wouldn’t be alone in finding it unacceptable. It wouldn’t take long for retailers to get the message.DavidL said:
Thanks. Minority Report had advertising boards in shops that welcomed you by name (courtesy of the great Philip K Dick of course). Sounds like it is not far off.Foxy said:
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:Morris_Dancer said:
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e0 -
I'm not writing him off. I just think his price is too short. And while I'm not a backer of Joe Biden either, you can't just assume he'll self-destruct.RoyalBlue said:
I think you’re writing off Pete too early. I expect the primaries to turn into a contest between Bernie and a moderate. Assuming Biden self-destructs, I don’t see which of the moderates is more appealing.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile last month's man Beto O'Rourke was last matched at 25.
Anyone care to speculate on who next month's flavour of the month might be?
My general strategy on races of this type is to lay at short prices rather than back (I may make exceptions for very long-priced candidates with possibilities).0 -
https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1
I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.0 -
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I don't understand why at the Euro's new parties can't be run alongside the EP groupings??El_Capitano said:https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1
I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.
this is idiotic.0 -
I didn't say I thought they would top the GE as a result. I think that for separate reasons.HYUFD said:
Ed Miliband came second in the 2014 Euros behind UKIP, fat lot of good it did him in 2015kle4 said:
And people for some reason think labour wont be fine in the euros . Even second would be no big dealFoxy said:
And it is not just Leavers that will annihilate them:DavidL said:
So what? And there is not going to be much of a Tory voice anyway. They are going to be annihilated.logical_song said:
... and if our Euro MPs end up staying for months or years it removes a Tory voice in the EU.IanB2 said:
Boycotts are always difficult. Parties are set up to contest elections, and this principal purpose is written into their constitutions. And while we enjoy the spectacle and uncertainty, there are real people with (*possibly) real jobs and incomes at stake, and forcing someone into involuntary retirement is a difficult thing to be doing (at Westminster the financial leaving terms are better if you are defeated at election - no idea whether this applies in Brussels or not).DecrepitJohnL said:Could the Conservatives boycott the European elections? Just not put up any candidates. It would save a sack of cash, avoid humiliation, and blunt any Farage wins. Labour did this in David Davis's by-election.
In practice doing so would be extremely problematic, and potentially open to challenge, before you get to the embarassment and PR risk.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1118869993259786240?s=19
And this poll puts the Faragists in 3rd, with another swing to Remain favouring parties.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118859517620572163?s=190 -
Time to have a small interest? Is his meh-ness a blip or the true Beto?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile last month's man Beto O'Rourke was last matched at 25.
Anyone care to speculate on who next month's flavour of the month might be?0 -
Also if TIG fails, then thats a crying shame for democracy in this country. The stranglehold of both labour and the tories need to be smashed so new ideas and policies and people can come through.0
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I hate anything mock-personalised from anyone who does not actually know me. Thank goodness for spam folders. The recent change in data law enabled a big clean up of my email when I unsubscribed from loads of stuff. Very refreshing.NickPalmer said:
Oh, and more relevantly to here, I hate those political letters that are mock-personalised. "Nick, it's really important to vote next Thursday. We know you want to stop the Tories, Nick, and this is your chance to do it." Do they think we're idiots that we don't know about mail merge?NickPalmer said:
It's a subtle balance, isn't it? I really like Eritrean food and I'd be quite pleased to get a text saying "You are just 500 metres from an Eritrean restaurant at High Road 43." Similarly I don't mind getting a moderate amount of spam on computer games as I'm interested in what's coming out. But personalising is intrusive in a very American way, like the staff in restaurants who say ,"Hi, I'm Cindy, and I'm gonna make sure you have a great time today!" It's the false chumminess that I react against, not the relevant information.0 -
Come on, seriously? It's the only opportunity voters have between elections to register their view on the progress or otherwise of any Government. Yes it's tough on the local councillors but that's politics and I imagine were the Conservatives 20 points ahead there'd be plenty on here urging people to back the Government.Peter_the_Punter said:It's possible for the Conservative Party to do ok at the Locals if voters decide to vote on local issues and the quality of candidates rather than for tribal reasons.
I've often thought this is the way it should be. You shouldn't vote in the locals on the performance of the Westminster bunch; it makes no sense and encourages poor local government. The practical problem is that it's difficult for the ordinary Joe and Joanna to assess just how well his and her local Council is performing, and which if any of the Councillors are worth supporting regardless of Party.
As to "how well the local Council is performing", everyone has their standards and there's no point comparing your Council with the Council next door because, short of moving house, you can't change the Council that provides your service though you can change its leadership and policy direction.
In any case, Council performance is in the eye of the beholder and what's important to you. Clean streets may matter more to you than adequate care for the elderly or it may not.
I am sure there will be plenty of Councillors who will blame their defeat on "national factors" and it is unfair sometimes but perhaps it's also a question of the divergence of importance between what the local council does and what the national Government does.0 -
Guardian rolling blog says it all:
"Good morning. I hope you all had a good Easter. And welcome back to the Brexit Groundhog Day vortex of doom."0 -
Same here, but for Eritrean food. Not being a metropolitan elite I've never had the opportunity to sample itNickPalmer said:
It's a subtle balance, isn't it? I really like Eritrean food and I'd be quite pleased to get a text saying "You are just 500 metres from an Eritrean restaurant at High Road 43." Similarly I don't mind getting a moderate amount of spam on computer games as I'm interested in what's coming out. But personalising is intrusive in a very American way, like the staff in restaurants who say ,"Hi, I'm Cindy, and I'm gonna make sure you have a great time today!" It's the false chumminess that I react against, not the relevant information.Streeter said:
I would walk straight out of any shop that did that and I’m sure I wouldn’t be alone in finding it unacceptable. It wouldn’t take long for retailers to get the message.DavidL said:
Thanks. Minority Report had advertising boards in shops that welcomed you by name (courtesy of the great Philip K Dick of course). Sounds like it is not far off.Foxy said:
Who’s using your face? The ugly truth about facial recognitionDavidL said:
Can't read that. What is the article called?Foxy said:
I know an entrepreneur in just that position with a very innovative start up. Amazon offered to buy him out at a knockdown price, telling him that they would set up their own version and under cut him if he refused. It really is classic monopoly bullying. He has held out so far though.DavidL said:Morris_Dancer said:
It gets much more sinister once the facial recognition software starts to work properly. The Cambridge Analytica stuff is going to look pretty insignificant next to this.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf19b956-60a2-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e
0 -
Well it’s unlikely to come from a party with no new ideas or policies is it?Slackbladder said:Also if TIG fails, then thats a crying shame for democracy in this country. The stranglehold of both labour and the tories need to be smashed so new ideas and policies and people can come through.
0 -
I'd expect the locals to be 2012-14 level of bad for the Conservatives , not 1993-96. The Conservatives' ratings are dire, but so too are their opponents'Peter_the_Punter said:It's possible for the Conservative Party to do ok at the Locals if voters decide to vote on local issues and the quality of candidates rather than for tribal reasons.
I've often thought this is the way it should be. You shouldn't vote in the locals on the performance of the Westminster bunch; it makes no sense and encourages poor local government. The practical problem is that it's difficult for the ordinary Joe and Joanna to assess just how well his and her local Council is performing, and which if any of the Councillors are worth supporting regardless of Party.
I will be voting in Tewkesbury's Council Elections for the first time in May. The Council is pretty much solid Tory and my general impression is that it does a decent job. I am intrigued to note that two of the Candidates that stood and won last time as Conservatives are standing as Independents this time round and opposing the official Blue Rosettes.
No, I don't know what the back story is but will do some research. Meanwhile, if anyone here can help.....0 -
The democratic primaries should be fun - recalling past Republican ones pretty much everyone had their brief moments as front runner.0
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That does need time. But they can't be a one-policy thing.brokenwheel said:
Well it’s unlikely to come from a party with no new ideas or policies is it?Slackbladder said:Also if TIG fails, then thats a crying shame for democracy in this country. The stranglehold of both labour and the tories need to be smashed so new ideas and policies and people can come through.
0 -
It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.El_Capitano said:https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1
I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.0 -
Possibly. He's not done anything awful, he's just suffered by comparison. He seems very bland though. You also don't get a second chance to make a first impression.Theuniondivvie said:
Time to have a small interest? Is his meh-ness a blip or the true Beto?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile last month's man Beto O'Rourke was last matched at 25.
Anyone care to speculate on who next month's flavour of the month might be?
0 -
It is, but on the other hand I've never heard a local councillor say "frankly we've been a bit shit recently but we did ok in the elections because our party is doing so well nationally", so my sympathy for them on that point is limited.stodge said:I am sure there will be plenty of Councillors who will blame their defeat on "national factors" and it is unfair sometimes
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In practice at the moment the only party who arent a one policy party are labour! And only then because Corbyn of all people is not obsessed with Brexit.Slackbladder said:
That does need time. But they can't be a one-policy thing.brokenwheel said:
Well it’s unlikely to come from a party with no new ideas or policies is it?Slackbladder said:Also if TIG fails, then thats a crying shame for democracy in this country. The stranglehold of both labour and the tories need to be smashed so new ideas and policies and people can come through.
0 -
A perfect summation of my betting strategy.kle4 said:The democratic primaries should be fun - recalling past Republican ones pretty much everyone had their brief moments as front runner.
0 -
I would say that it is not impossible that just about the entire existing house of commons MPs will be swept aside when a GE is finally called, judging by these focus group findings.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/23/30-years-research-never-seen-public-despondent-politics/0
This discussion has been closed.