politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?

To win the Conservative leadership – and quite probably the office of Prime Minister – the successful candidate is assumed to need three things.
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Anyone but IDS0
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I think you are looking at the next but 1 leader rather than the Tories next leader.
And then you have to ask yourself what exactly will the Tory party look like in 5 years time..0 -
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Meh vs. Average vs. Nope0
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I'm glad I visited it last year. I suspect I won't see it complete again in my life time (and I expect to live another 40 years or so).Theuniondivvie said:Man, that looks torched. Horrible.
https://twitter.com/khentekas/status/11178352062731878440 -
Horrible scenes at Notre Dame.
The PoW refurbishment project should take note. The second palace could easily befall the fate of the first during restoration.0 -
FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks
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Problem with Cleverly is that he isn’t very Conservative and is a bit* wet.
Mercer a better bet.
*very0 -
Not looking good at all. Seat of the fire is right in the middle of the cathedral, top of the roof or base of the spire. Scaffolding around suggests works in progress.
https://twitter.com/fraser_rush/status/11178381003932876800 -
A single fire engine - seems a bit pathetic.
Still a poignant Paris in flames motif..0 -
I like James Cleverly, he comes over as a solid bloke, free of malice, but ironically given the name I sense he does not have quite enough up top to be a credible party leader.0
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The next Tory leader needs to be a charismatic figure who can talk like a human being and maybe even win a ******* election. They need to be 'populist' in the sense of speaking to and exciting the voters with their promises - populist parties of the right are taking the world by storm, except of course in Britain, where our dullards can't hit an open goal from 5 feet away.0
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Have fun, good luck with life and see you soon! I think the politics of the last few months has got to a lot of us.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks0 -
There will be a genocide of rats there. The grounds around Notre Dame are teaming with themAndyJS said:0 -
So no one in the parliamentary party then?blueblue said:The next Tory leader needs to be a charismatic figure who can talk like a human being and maybe even win a ******* election. They need to be 'populist' in the sense of speaking to and exciting the voters with their promises - populist parties of the right are taking the world by storm, except of course in Britain, where our dullards can't hit an open goal from 5 feet away.
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Fingers crossed.Casino_Royale said:Horrible scenes at Notre Dame.
The PoW refurbishment project should take note. The second palace could easily befall the fate of the first during restoration.0 -
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Thank you for your kind remarks. I do feel very relaxed but very sorry to see Notre Dame on fireSandpit said:
Have fun, good luck with life and see you soon! I think the politics of the last few months has got to a lot of us.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks0 -
Hard to see the membership not picking a hard Brexiteer like Boris or Raab if they get to the final 2.
If not a fresh faced Leaver like Cleverly might be possible0 -
...0
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No one who leaps to mind. Ideally, I'd like a time machine back to 2016 Boris, when he could perhaps have been that leader. But today - who the hell knows?brokenwheel said:
So no one in the parliamentary party then.blueblue said:The next Tory leader needs to be a charismatic figure who can talk like a human being and maybe even win a ******* election. They need to be 'populist' in the sense of speaking to and exciting the voters with their promises - populist parties of the right are taking the world by storm, except of course in Britain, where our dullards can't hit an open goal from 5 feet away.
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That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history0
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The world's smartest man solved Boeing's problems this morning, let's see what he has had to say this afternoon.
So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 15 April 20190 -
That strategy was such a no-brainer that the implications for the Tories' collective IQ is really quite terrifying.isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
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And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.0 -
Even more so when you consider that May dished out more than £350m subsequently - and it has done the Tories no good.isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
They had another chance to do the £350m thing in the June 2017 election. As, ahem, some of us on here were screaming for them to do. But that would have vindicated Boris, made hm the heir apparent - and that wouldn't do. Wouldn't do at all....0 -
I remember the York Minster fire. Thankfully the cathedral is still a magnificent sight today.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Fingers crossed.Casino_Royale said:Horrible scenes at Notre Dame.
The PoW refurbishment project should take note. The second palace could easily befall the fate of the first during restoration.0 -
I see the Brexiteer Crew are still labouring under the delusion that a leaver would have done better.
And when their choice is Boris ...
Hahahahahaha.
Ha.
Ha.0 -
I meant fingers crossed the other way. ... .JosiasJessop said:
I remember the York Minster fire. Thankfully the cathedral is still a magnificent sight today.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Fingers crossed.Casino_Royale said:Horrible scenes at Notre Dame.
The PoW refurbishment project should take note. The second palace could easily befall the fate of the first during restoration.0 -
0
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glw said:
The world's smartest man solved Boeing's problems this morning, let's see what he has had to say this afternoon.
So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 15 April 2019
LOL, just about the one method of firefighting that could cause more problems that it would solve?0 -
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Will any part of the building be recoverable?Theuniondivvie said:Spire collapsed
https://twitter.com/pzf/status/11178489691056455680 -
👍Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks0 -
Not looking good atm.RobD said:
Will any part of the building be recoverable?Theuniondivvie said:Spire collapsed
https://twitter.com/pzf/status/11178489691056455680 -
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Why? One of the biggest multi-cultural cities on the planet didn't exactly fall into the Thames on his watch.....JosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.0 -
If Donald Trump went there and verbally repeated his last 50 tweets, the amount of wind might blow the fire out.glw said:The world's smartest man solved Boeing's problems this morning, let's see what he has had to say this afternoon.
So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 15 April 2019
On a serious note that looks extremely bad. Can't see how they save anything east of the transepts in these pictures.0 -
One can only hope so.Casino_Royale said:Horrible scenes at Notre Dame.
The PoW refurbishment project should take note. The second palace could easily befall the fate of the first during restoration.0 -
Terrible terrible scenes.
Devastating news to hear the spire has collapsed.0 -
I’d say arson could constitute a significant threat.matt said:
One can only hope so.Casino_Royale said:Horrible scenes at Notre Dame.
The PoW refurbishment project should take note. The second palace could easily befall the fate of the first during restoration.
I hope you’re not serious. Desecration of such an iconic national monument would be a tragedy.0 -
Well, the current set up was built (and considerably modernised) when the original Palace of Westminster burned down in 1834. Perhaps a second conflagration would give a chance to do what that sentimental old duffer Churchill flunked on after the Blitz and build something new and effective.matt said:
One can only hope so.Casino_Royale said:Horrible scenes at Notre Dame.
The PoW refurbishment project should take note. The second palace could easily befall the fate of the first during restoration.0 -
Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.0
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Good luck to these lads.Paristonda said:Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/11178535320764047360 -
You would have thought however intense the flames, the walls will remain largely intact.Paristonda said:Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.
But the interior, the woodwork, the glass, possibly the bells...
It could easily be like a larger scale version of Coventry.
Edit - you also have to wonder, even if they can save the east end, how badly the organ will be damaged. Smoke, soot and electrical surges do not mix with delicate pipe work.0 -
Cleverly would be a very good choice; he's a leaver, not from the Eton/Oxfordocracy, and has a brain.0
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Evening all
On topic for a moment, put bluntly, no.
There are three scenarios it seems to this non-Conservative observer - the "In Government" election, the "250" election and the "150" election.
If May steps down voluntarily (Cameron) or is forced from office (Thatcher) while the Conservatives remain in Government, it's much more likely the successor will come from the Cabinet so Hunt, Javid, Rudd perhaps?
The "250" election is when the Conservatives have lost power but only narrowly - they are a strong Opposition and it looks likely they will be out for only one term or less. Had such an event occurred in 1997 and for example Portillo had survived, would Hague have become leader from the position of Shadow Welsh Secretary? Seems improbable. Again you are looking at a youngish senior ex-Cabinet member who can re-invigorate the Party in a couple of years and take them back to power.
The "150" election is the 1997 scenario - the Conservatives have been given the dockside hooker treatment (to paraphrase Me Eagles) and a number of those who might have led the party have either fallen or realise that two terms minimum puts them out of the running. At that point even those in their late 40s among the survivors such as Tugendhat and Cleverly look unlikely. It's also worth mentioning Braintree was Labour from 1997 to 2005 there's no guarantee Cleverly would be among the survivors.
The obvious younger candidates to this observer are Kemi Badenoch and Rishi Sunak whose seats survived the 1997 purge and would likely survive again. Both would be a notable contrast to an ageing Labour frontbench and would be worth considering but only if returning to power looked like a 10-year project.0 -
Really horrible news on Notre Dame0
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Is Trump taking the piss?0
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Have a look at low carb/keto diets. People have put T2D into remission with a low carb diet, and lost shedloads of weight. It works.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks0 -
I don't think there's been anything that's happened of late that has convinced me that he has any particular competence.isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Would he have been organisationally superior in terms of long-term No Deal planning from the start? There's nothing in his background that suggests the methodical "putting the pieces in place" would have happened under his watch.
Would he have been more inclusive, in terms of reaching out across the House of Commons to assemble a coalition? Unlikely.
Would he have had the electoral disaster of 2016? Well, probably not. But that's a massive f*cking counterfactual.
Ultimately, the facts of negotiating with the EU would not have changed due to the presence of Boris on the team. Maybe he'd have had more red lines early on. Maybe he could have done a better job. But he is not a man with an eye for detail, and it seems more likely he would have handwaved something through, not realising its significance until later.
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This is quite shocking. It's very sad that future generations are not going to be able to appreciate such a beautiful piece of architecture.0
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Yes thank you. I am following a strict diet and am determined to recover the control I have had for the last 10 yearsJohnLilburne said:
Have a look at low carb/keto diets. People have put T2D into remission with a low carb diet, and lost shedloads of weight. It works.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks0 -
Only visited Paris once, 20 years ago, but sad news about Notre Dame0
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The desperation stage seems to have been reached quickly.
The Conservatives need a leader who all of them can at least speak with. I appreciate that limits the field considerably. They also need one that all of them can take seriously. That limits it further.
The Conservatives will probably choose a candidate who fails one or other of these tests, reasoning along the lines that Aaron Bell does. But for me it comes down to the same unpalatable choice between Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and maybe Matthew Hancock.0 -
The desperation stage seems to have been reached quickly.
The Conservatives need a leader who all of them can at least speak with. I appreciate that limits the field considerably. They also need one that all of them can take seriously. That limits it further.
The Conservatives will probably choose a candidate who fails one or other of these tests, reasoning along the lines that Aaron Bell does. But for me it comes down to the same unpalatable choice between Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and maybe Matthew Hancock.0 -
The desperation stage seems to have been reached quickly.
The Conservatives need a leader who all of them can at least speak with. I appreciate that limits the field considerably. They also need one that all of them can take seriously. That limits it further.
The Conservatives will probably choose a candidate who fails one or other of these tests, reasoning along the lines that Aaron Bell does. But for me it comes down to the same unpalatable choice between Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and maybe Matthew Hancock.0 -
Well, yes, they’re more likely - but shorter prices! Though I think, given the membership role, we might yet be in for a surprise. For fuller disclosure my best four results (across the Con leader and PM markets) are Cleverly, Hancock, Hunt & Javid - in that order at present.stodge said:Evening all
On topic for a moment, put bluntly, no.
There are three scenarios it seems to this non-Conservative observer - the "In Government" election, the "250" election and the "150" election.
If May steps down voluntarily (Cameron) or is forced from office (Thatcher) while the Conservatives remain in Government, it's much more likely the successor will come from the Cabinet so Hunt, Javid, Rudd perhaps?
Notre Dame is just heartbreaking.0 -
IANAE, but fire and stonework - especially stonework - is not good. Intense fire can change the colour of stone, cause chemical changes, make it friable and cause spalling, and thermal shock can destroy walls (yet alone falling woodwork levering out and knocking down walls).ydoethur said:
You would have thought however intense the flames, the walls will remain largely intact.Paristonda said:Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.
But the interior, the woodwork, the glass, possibly the bells...
It could easily be like a larger scale version of Coventry.
Edit - you also have to wonder, even if they can save the east end, how badly the organ will be damaged. Smoke, soot and electrical surges do not mix with delicate pipe work.
There is a chance that the walls will not be structurally sound for the sort of weight they have to hold afterwards.
On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, they magnificently restored York Minster's South Transept. Except they're sayingg the entire interior is ablaze.0 -
That fire isn't going out anytime soon, no matter how many times Dermot Murnaghan says it looks like the French fireys have got it under control. It'll be burning for hours if not days under the rubble of the roof, the rubble acting like a huge charcoal oven consuming any wooden structures or furniture that currently remain. No easy way to fight it, you can't commit crews inside due to risk of further collapse, and it's not easy getting big water onto it. The Pompiers will be earning their pay tonight.0
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10 kg weight loss is the key to getting remission according to Prof Taylor of the DiRECT trial:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes thank you. I am following a strict diet and am determined to recover the control I have had for the last 10 yearsJohnLilburne said:
Have a look at low carb/keto diets. People have put T2D into remission with a low carb diet, and lost shedloads of weight. It works.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks
https://www.diabetes.org.uk/research/research-round-up/research-spotlight/research-spotlight-low-calorie-liquid-diet
There are other useful positives for blood pressure, and arthritis too in such weight loss.
Keeping it off is the tough bit.0 -
Maybe Mrs May's ambition is to be the last Tory Prime Minister?0
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Reports at the moment that the wooden structure is destroyed. Horrifying.twistedfirestopper3 said:That fire isn't going out anytime soon, no matter how many times Dermot Murnaghan says it looks like the French fireys have got it under control. It'll be burning for hours if not days under the rubble of the roof, the rubble acting like a huge charcoal oven consuming any wooden structures or furniture that currently remain. No easy way to fight it, you can't commit crews inside due to risk of further collapse, and it's not easy getting big water onto it. The Pompiers will be earning their pay tonight.
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“What is civilisation? I don’t know. I can’t define it in abstract terms, yet. But I think I can recognise it when I see it, and I’m looking at it now.”
https://youtu.be/w6qYjisp51M0 -
Terrible news from Paris.
If it had been St Pauls the Brexit metaphors would be queuing round the block....0 -
The person who tipped the balance in the campaign would have had the chance to take responsibility instead of the neither here or there nonsense we’ve had sinceJosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.0 -
JosiasJessop said:
IANAE, but fire and stonework - especially stonework - is not good. Intense fire can change the colour of stone, cause chemical changes, make it friable and cause spalling, and thermal shock can destroy walls (yet alone falling woodwork levering out and knocking down walls).
They've been trying to get repairs done for years, apparently the stonework was already in pretty rotten shape (perhaps inevitably given it's 900 years old).
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Thanks Dr Foxy. I have lost 7 kg so far and will achieve 10 kg and I appreciate the benefit on blood pressure and my osteoarthritis. It is a no brainer reallyFoxy said:
10 kg weight loss is the key to getting remission according to Prof Taylor of the DiRECT trial:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes thank you. I am following a strict diet and am determined to recover the control I have had for the last 10 yearsJohnLilburne said:
Have a look at low carb/keto diets. People have put T2D into remission with a low carb diet, and lost shedloads of weight. It works.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks
https://www.diabetes.org.uk/research/research-round-up/research-spotlight/research-spotlight-low-calorie-liquid-diet
There are other useful positives for blood pressure, and arthritis too in such weight loss.
Keeping it off is the tough bit.0 -
I don’t particularly think he’s any good. But they’d probably have won a majority with him in charge promising £350m pw for the NHS in the manifesto and taking on Jez on tv than May saying she’s going to nick your pension and ducking the debatesrcs1000 said:
I don't think there's been anything that's happened of late that has convinced me that he has any particular competence.isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Would he have been organisationally superior in terms of long-term No Deal planning from the start? There's nothing in his background that suggests the methodical "putting the pieces in place" would have happened under his watch.
Would he have been more inclusive, in terms of reaching out across the House of Commons to assemble a coalition? Unlikely.
Would he have had the electoral disaster of 2016? Well, probably not. But that's a massive f*cking counterfactual.
Ultimately, the facts of negotiating with the EU would not have changed due to the presence of Boris on the team. Maybe he'd have had more red lines early on. Maybe he could have done a better job. But he is not a man with an eye for detail, and it seems more likely he would have handwaved something through, not realising its significance until later.0 -
As has been discussed on here many times, he had a rather (ahem) laid-back management style, and his achievements were few. But worst of all was the Garden Bridge project: a vanity scheme to benefit him and his chums, and he treated the inquiry with aloof contempt. It cost £53 million, and they didn't even get a spade in the ground.MarqueeMark said:
Why? One of the biggest multi-cultural cities on the planet didn't exactly fall into the Thames on his watch.....JosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.0 -
He continues to talk utter rubbish commenting on things he cannot possibly know.twistedfirestopper3 said:That fire isn't going out anytime soon, no matter how many times Dermot Murnaghan says it looks like the French fireys have got it under control. It'll be burning for hours if not days under the rubble of the roof, the rubble acting like a huge charcoal oven consuming any wooden structures or furniture that currently remain. No easy way to fight it, you can't commit crews inside due to risk of further collapse, and it's not easy getting big water onto it. The Pompiers will be earning their pay tonight.
A perfect example of the poor level of journalism generally and in particular on brexit0 -
Again, I refer you to Boris' track record ...isam said:
The person who tipped the balance in the campaign would have had the chance to take responsibility instead of the neither here or there nonsense we’ve had sinceJosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.0 -
It is utterly heartbreaking to see.eek said:
I'm glad I visited it last year. I suspect I won't see it complete again in my life time (and I expect to live another 40 years or so).Theuniondivvie said:Man, that looks torched. Horrible.
https://twitter.com/khentekas/status/11178352062731878440 -
It will have to be rebuilt.
The French State owns the building (despite separation of church and state in 1905), so they can pay.
No expense should be spared for such an iconic building.0 -
An evil little part of me says they should rebuild Notre-Dame from scaffolding, as that appears to be holding up well ...0
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If Coventry could withstand incendiaries, there is a reasonable chance the walls might survive this.JosiasJessop said:
IANAE, but fire and stonework - especially stonework - is not good. Intense fire can change the colour of stone, cause chemical changes, make it friable and cause spalling, and thermal shock can destroy walls (yet alone falling woodwork levering out and knocking down walls).ydoethur said:
You would have thought however intense the flames, the walls will remain largely intact.Paristonda said:Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.
But the interior, the woodwork, the glass, possibly the bells...
It could easily be like a larger scale version of Coventry.
Edit - you also have to wonder, even if they can save the east end, how badly the organ will be damaged. Smoke, soot and electrical surges do not mix with delicate pipe work.
There is a chance that the walls will not be structurally sound for the sort of weight they have to hold afterwards.
On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, they magnificently restored York Minster's South Transept. Except they're sayingg the entire interior is ablaze.
But if the interior is on fire...0 -
I seem to recall that the reason they put stone vaulted roofs in the gothic cathedrals in the middle ages was to save them in the event of a fire. Have there been any reports that the vaulting has collapsed?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Reports at the moment that the wooden structure is destroyed. Horrifying.twistedfirestopper3 said:That fire isn't going out anytime soon, no matter how many times Dermot Murnaghan says it looks like the French fireys have got it under control. It'll be burning for hours if not days under the rubble of the roof, the rubble acting like a huge charcoal oven consuming any wooden structures or furniture that currently remain. No easy way to fight it, you can't commit crews inside due to risk of further collapse, and it's not easy getting big water onto it. The Pompiers will be earning their pay tonight.
0 -
The prefect said they were waiting to see if the vaulting would protect it.Benpointer said:
I seem to recall that the reason they put stone vaulted roofs in the gothic cathedrals in the middle ages was to save them in the event of a fire. Have there been any reports that the vaulting has collapsed?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Reports at the moment that the wooden structure is destroyed. Horrifying.twistedfirestopper3 said:That fire isn't going out anytime soon, no matter how many times Dermot Murnaghan says it looks like the French fireys have got it under control. It'll be burning for hours if not days under the rubble of the roof, the rubble acting like a huge charcoal oven consuming any wooden structures or furniture that currently remain. No easy way to fight it, you can't commit crews inside due to risk of further collapse, and it's not easy getting big water onto it. The Pompiers will be earning their pay tonight.
But it's one thing protecting the interior from a fire in the wooden roof, and quite another to expect it to withstand the spire collapsing on it.0 -
More imbecilic comments from the moron in the WH .
Would he ever just STFU .0 -
Who has a good comparable record? At least he’s won a couple of mayoralties and the referendum.JosiasJessop said:
Again, I refer you to Boris' track record ...isam said:
The person who tipped the balance in the campaign would have had the chance to take responsibility instead of the neither here or there nonsense we’ve had sinceJosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.
As I say I can take him or leave him, but at least he has energy and ideas. And the 350m a week promise was a no brainer
Lets be fair, you used to argue with me that UKIP should get rid of Farage if they wanted to prosper... hardly a great track record of predictions0 -
A Donald Trump tweet is like a Game of Thrones episode. There are around 200 characters and something unimaginably dreadful happens.nico67 said:More imbecilic comments from the moron in the WH .
Would he ever just STFU .
(With apologies to the person who memorably came up with that line about Richard Dawkins.)0 -
Prof Taylor is an enthusiast for his liquid diet, which is rather bland but works, but when I have seen him speak has been quite open that any diet that delivers the weight loss works. He is quite sceptical about exercise as he thinks this inhibits weight loss because of raised metabolism and hunger.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Dr Foxy. I have lost 7 kg so far and will achieve 10 kg and I appreciate the benefit on blood pressure and my osteoarthritis. It is a no brainer reallyFoxy said:
10 kg weight loss is the key to getting remission according to Prof Taylor of the DiRECT trial:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes thank you. I am following a strict diet and am determined to recover the control I have had for the last 10 yearsJohnLilburne said:
Have a look at low carb/keto diets. People have put T2D into remission with a low carb diet, and lost shedloads of weight. It works.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks
https://www.diabetes.org.uk/research/research-round-up/research-spotlight/research-spotlight-low-calorie-liquid-diet
There are other useful positives for blood pressure, and arthritis too in such weight loss.
Keeping it off is the tough bit.
A kg of fat is about 9000 Calories, so to lose 10kg* means consuming 1500 fewer Calories per day for 60 days. Abdominal fat is the bit that matters for diabetes, and waist at belly button level should be less than half of height is a simple metric.
*Initial weight loss is stored glycogen and water, so quicker.
0 -
Why?isam said:
Who has a good comparable record? At least he’s won a couple of mayoralties and the referendum.JosiasJessop said:
Again, I refer you to Boris' track record ...isam said:
The person who tipped the balance in the campaign would have had the chance to take responsibility instead of the neither here or there nonsense we’ve had sinceJosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.
As I say I can take him or leave him, but at least he has energy and ideas. And the 350m a week promise was a no brainer
Lets be fair, you used to argue with me that UKIP should get rid of Farage if they wanted to prosper... hardly a great track record of predictions
0 -
Much will probably depend on the type of stone, and the length of the fire it is subjected to. They also didn't rebuild Coventry; just because the walls are standing does not mean they're strong enough to support the hundreds of tonnes of structure that used to stand above them.ydoethur said:
If Coventry could withstand incendiaries, there is a reasonable chance the walls might survive this.JosiasJessop said:
IANAE, but fire and stonework - especially stonework - is not good. Intense fire can change the colour of stone, cause chemical changes, make it friable and cause spalling, and thermal shock can destroy walls (yet alone falling woodwork levering out and knocking down walls).ydoethur said:
You would have thought however intense the flames, the walls will remain largely intact.Paristonda said:Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.
But the interior, the woodwork, the glass, possibly the bells...
It could easily be like a larger scale version of Coventry.
Edit - you also have to wonder, even if they can save the east end, how badly the organ will be damaged. Smoke, soot and electrical surges do not mix with delicate pipe work.
There is a chance that the walls will not be structurally sound for the sort of weight they have to hold afterwards.
On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, they magnificently restored York Minster's South Transept. Except they're sayingg the entire interior is ablaze.
But if the interior is on fire...
I hope I'm being too pessimistic.
If something good can come out of this, it may be that we start to appreciate the marvellous architecture that surrounds us, and that we often take too much for granted.
Except Brutalist ...0 -
Thank you again. I do agree on exercise which I am restricted due to my arthritisFoxy said:
Prof Taylor is an enthusiast for his liquid diet, which is rather bland but works, but when I have seen him speak has been quite open that any diet that delivers the weight loss works. He is quite sceptical about exercise as he thinks this inhibits weight loss because of raised metabolism and hunger.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thanks Dr Foxy. I have lost 7 kg so far and will achieve 10 kg and I appreciate the benefit on blood pressure and my osteoarthritis. It is a no brainer reallyFoxy said:
10 kg weight loss is the key to getting remission according to Prof Taylor of the DiRECT trial:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes thank you. I am following a strict diet and am determined to recover the control I have had for the last 10 yearsJohnLilburne said:
Have a look at low carb/keto diets. People have put T2D into remission with a low carb diet, and lost shedloads of weight. It works.Big_G_NorthWales said:FPT
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks
https://www.diabetes.org.uk/research/research-round-up/research-spotlight/research-spotlight-low-calorie-liquid-diet
There are other useful positives for blood pressure, and arthritis too in such weight loss.
Keeping it off is the tough bit.
A kg of fat is about 9000 Calories, so to lose 10kg* means consuming 1500 fewer Calories per day for 60 days. Abdominal fat is the bit that matters for diabetes, and waist at belly button level should be less than half of height is a simple metric.
*Initial weight loss is stored glycogen and water, so quicker.0 -
Boris has energy? One of the complaints against him as MoL is exactly the opposite: he was lazy.isam said:
Who has a good comparable record? At least he’s won a couple of mayoralties and the referendum.JosiasJessop said:
Again, I refer you to Boris' track record ...isam said:
The person who tipped the balance in the campaign would have had the chance to take responsibility instead of the neither here or there nonsense we’ve had sinceJosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.
As I say I can take him or leave him, but at least he has energy and ideas. And the 350m a week promise was a no brainer
Lets be fair, you used to argue with me that UKIP should get rid of Farage if they wanted to prosper... hardly a great track record of predictions
I think your last paragraph is incorrect: I doubt that was me.0 -
That wasn't the reason they didn't rebuild Coventry, though, so I don't think that's relevant. Some repairs and strengthening would have been needed, but a full restoration would have been a viable option. It was rejected because it was felt the ruin was a more fitting memorial to the Coventry Blitz.JosiasJessop said:
Much will probably depend on the type of stone, and the length of the fire it is subjected to. They also didn't rebuild Coventry; just because the walls are standing does not mean they're strong enough to support the hundreds of tonnes of structure that used to stand above them.ydoethur said:
If Coventry could withstand incendiaries, there is a reasonable chance the walls might survive this.JosiasJessop said:
IANAE, but fire and stonework - especially stonework - is not good. Intense fire can change the colour of stone, cause chemical changes, make it friable and cause spalling, and thermal shock can destroy walls (yet alone falling woodwork levering out and knocking down walls).ydoethur said:
You would have thought however intense the flames, the walls will remain largely intact.Paristonda said:Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.
But the interior, the woodwork, the glass, possibly the bells...
It could easily be like a larger scale version of Coventry.
Edit - you also have to wonder, even if they can save the east end, how badly the organ will be damaged. Smoke, soot and electrical surges do not mix with delicate pipe work.
There is a chance that the walls will not be structurally sound for the sort of weight they have to hold afterwards.
On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, they magnificently restored York Minster's South Transept. Except they're sayingg the entire interior is ablaze.
But if the interior is on fire...
I hope I'm being too pessimistic.
If something good can come out of this, it may be that we start to appreciate the marvellous architecture that surrounds us, and that we often take too much for granted.
Except Brutalist ...0 -
Not to diminsh it but it was a wooden spire, not stone. Quite a lot of lead on there too but I guess that will melt and run off the vaulting.ydoethur said:
The prefect said they were waiting to see if the vaulting would protect it.Benpointer said:
I seem to recall that the reason they put stone vaulted roofs in the gothic cathedrals in the middle ages was to save them in the event of a fire. Have there been any reports that the vaulting has collapsed?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Reports at the moment that the wooden structure is destroyed. Horrifying.twistedfirestopper3 said:That fire isn't going out anytime soon, no matter how many times Dermot Murnaghan says it looks like the French fireys have got it under control. It'll be burning for hours if not days under the rubble of the roof, the rubble acting like a huge charcoal oven consuming any wooden structures or furniture that currently remain. No easy way to fight it, you can't commit crews inside due to risk of further collapse, and it's not easy getting big water onto it. The Pompiers will be earning their pay tonight.
But it's one thing protecting the interior from a fire in the wooden roof, and quite another to expect it to withstand the spire collapsing on it.0 -
I'd really say to do more exercise if you can. 1 mile (20 minutes walking) is 70-100 calories depending on build, terrain and weight carried. Contrary to what you say above, I also find that exercise reduces my appetite. Just five or six miles a day can make a difference.Foxy said:Prof Taylor is an enthusiast for his liquid diet, which is rather bland but works, but when I have seen him speak has been quite open that any diet that delivers the weight loss works. He is quite sceptical about exercise as he thinks this inhibits weight loss because of raised metabolism and hunger.
A kg of fat is about 9000 Calories, so to lose 10kg* means consuming 1500 fewer Calories per day for 60 days. Abdominal fat is the bit that matters for diabetes, and waist at belly button level should be less than half of height is a simple metric.
*Initial weight loss is stored glycogen and water, so quicker.
Exercise also really helps mental wellbeing: at least in my case.0 -
If several tons of flaming wood fell on me, I assure you I would collapse.Benpointer said:
Not to diminsh it but it was a wooden spire, not stone. Quite a lot of lead on there too but I guess that will melt and run off the vaulting.ydoethur said:
The prefect said they were waiting to see if the vaulting would protect it.Benpointer said:
I seem to recall that the reason they put stone vaulted roofs in the gothic cathedrals in the middle ages was to save them in the event of a fire. Have there been any reports that the vaulting has collapsed?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Reports at the moment that the wooden structure is destroyed. Horrifying.twistedfirestopper3 said:That fire isn't going out anytime soon, no matter how many times Dermot Murnaghan says it looks like the French fireys have got it under control. It'll be burning for hours if not days under the rubble of the roof, the rubble acting like a huge charcoal oven consuming any wooden structures or furniture that currently remain. No easy way to fight it, you can't commit crews inside due to risk of further collapse, and it's not easy getting big water onto it. The Pompiers will be earning their pay tonight.
But it's one thing protecting the interior from a fire in the wooden roof, and quite another to expect it to withstand the spire collapsing on it.
The reports are that the interior has caught fire. Although hey also say that salvage is underway. Whether either or both are correct I don't know and I suspect we won't know before tomorrow.0 -
I am a rather puritanical Christian, so prefer a far simpler architectural and litergical style, but am very saddened to see such loss of artistic and cultural heritage. It is part of all our history, not just the French.JosiasJessop said:
Much will probably depend on the type of stone, and the length of the fire it is subjected to. They also didn't rebuild Coventry; just because the walls are standing does not mean they're strong enough to support the hundreds of tonnes of structure that used to stand above them.ydoethur said:
If Coventry could withstand incendiaries, there is a reasonable chance the walls might survive this.JosiasJessop said:
IANAE, but fire and stonework - especially stonework - is not good. Intense fire can change the colour of stone, cause chemical changes, make it friable and cause spalling, and thermal shock can destroy walls (yet alone falling woodwork levering out and knocking down walls).ydoethur said:
You would have thought however intense the flames, the walls will remain largely intact.Paristonda said:Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.
But the interior, the woodwork, the glass, possibly the bells...
It could easily be like a larger scale version of Coventry.
Edit - you also have to wonder, even if they can save the east end, how badly the organ will be damaged. Smoke, soot and electrical surges do not mix with delicate pipe work.
There is a chance that the walls will not be structurally sound for the sort of weight they have to hold afterwards.
On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, they magnificently restored York Minster's South Transept. Except they're sayingg the entire interior is ablaze.
But if the interior is on fire...
I hope I'm being too pessimistic.
If something good can come out of this, it may be that we start to appreciate the marvellous architecture that surrounds us, and that we often take too much for granted.
Except Brutalist ...0 -
It was you, but don’t worry about it I’m watching the football now.JosiasJessop said:
Boris has energy? One of the complaints against him as MoL is exactly the opposite: he was lazy.isam said:
Who has a good comparable record? At least he’s won a couple of mayoralties and the referendum.JosiasJessop said:
Again, I refer you to Boris' track record ...isam said:
The person who tipped the balance in the campaign would have had the chance to take responsibility instead of the neither here or there nonsense we’ve had sinceJosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.
As I say I can take him or leave him, but at least he has energy and ideas. And the 350m a week promise was a no brainer
Lets be fair, you used to argue with me that UKIP should get rid of Farage if they wanted to prosper... hardly a great track record of predictions
I think your last paragraph is incorrect: I doubt that was me.0 -
Ishmael_Z said:
Why?isam said:
Who has a good comparable record? At least he’s won a couple of mayoralties and the referendum.JosiasJessop said:
Again, I refer you to Boris' track record ...isam said:
The person who tipped the balance in the campaign would have had the chance to take responsibility instead of the neither here or there nonsense we’ve had sinceJosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.
As I say I can take him or leave him, but at least he has energy and ideas. And the 350m a week promise was a no brainer
Lets be fair, you used to argue with me that UKIP should get rid of Farage if they wanted to prosper... hardly a great track record of predictions
Who could say it was a lie on the side of a bus if he did it?0 -
Fair enough about Coventry. I think the main point still stands.ydoethur said:
That wasn't the reason they didn't rebuild Coventry, though, so I don't think that's relevant. Some repairs and strengthening would have been needed, but a full restoration would have been a viable option. It was rejected because it was felt the ruin was a more fitting memorial to the Coventry Blitz.JosiasJessop said:
Much will probably depend on the type of stone, and the length of the fire it is subjected to. They also didn't rebuild Coventry; just because the walls are standing does not mean they're strong enough to support the hundreds of tonnes of structure that used to stand above them.ydoethur said:
If Coventry could withstand incendiaries, there is a reasonable chance the walls might survive this.JosiasJessop said:
IANAE, but fire and stonework - especially stonework - is not good. Intense fire can change the colour of stone, cause chemical changes, make it friable and cause spalling, and thermal shock can destroy walls (yet alone falling woodwork levering out and knocking down walls).ydoethur said:
You would have thought however intense the flames, the walls will remain largely intact.Paristonda said:Horrific images. Can see smoke in the sky from the flat. Looks like it's burning from the inside out and it's clearly too intense at the moment for them to risk lives to save a monument, no matter how important it is.
But the interior, the woodwork, the glass, possibly the bells...
It could easily be like a larger scale version of Coventry.
Edit - you also have to wonder, even if they can save the east end, how badly the organ will be damaged. Smoke, soot and electrical surges do not mix with delicate pipe work.
There is a chance that the walls will not be structurally sound for the sort of weight they have to hold afterwards.
On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, they magnificently restored York Minster's South Transept. Except they're sayingg the entire interior is ablaze.
But if the interior is on fire...
I hope I'm being too pessimistic.
If something good can come out of this, it may be that we start to appreciate the marvellous architecture that surrounds us, and that we often take too much for granted.
Except Brutalist ...0 -
How are uncosted promises usually attacked in a general election?isam said:
Who could say it was a lie on the side of a bus if he did it?Ishmael_Z said:
Why?isam said:
Who has a good comparable record? At least he’s won a couple of mayoralties and the referendum.JosiasJessop said:
Again, I refer you to Boris' track record ...isam said:
The person who tipped the balance in the campaign would have had the chance to take responsibility instead of the neither here or there nonsense we’ve had sinceJosiasJessop said:
And then what?isam said:That the Tory party in 2016 didn’t just give the job to Boris with instructions to dole out £350m a week to the NHS has got to be one of the biggest rickets in party political history
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.
As I say I can take him or leave him, but at least he has energy and ideas. And the 350m a week promise was a no brainer
Lets be fair, you used to argue with me that UKIP should get rid of Farage if they wanted to prosper... hardly a great track record of predictions0