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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next generation: the best outside bet for the Tory crown?
To win the Conservative leadership – and quite probably the office of Prime Minister – the successful candidate is assumed to need three things.
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And then you have to ask yourself what exactly will the Tory party look like in 5 years time..
https://twitter.com/khentekas/status/1117835206273187844
The PoW refurbishment project should take note. The second palace could easily befall the fate of the first during restoration.
I haven't been posting much recently as I am concentrating on getting my diabetes under control with weight loss and exercise. I was diagnosed with diabetes in 2009 and to date have not required medication but as is so often the case, I took liberties with bread, biscuits, chocolates, cakes and fizzy drinks and need to regain control. Have lost 1 stone in last three weeks so doing ok so far.
As for politics I have decided to let it all flow over me for a while, and while I do lurk from time to time, I am not posting as frequently but rest assured it is not because I am upset or out of sorts with anyone, it is just maybe time for a little rest
I have not gone away folks
Mercer a better bet.
*very
https://twitter.com/fraser_rush/status/1117838100393287680
Still a poignant Paris in flames motif..
If not a fresh faced Leaver like Cleverly might be possible
Boris' time as MoL does not bode well.
They had another chance to do the £350m thing in the June 2017 election. As, ahem, some of us on here were screaming for them to do. But that would have vindicated Boris, made hm the heir apparent - and that wouldn't do. Wouldn't do at all....
And when their choice is Boris ...
Hahahahahaha.
Ha.
Ha.
https://twitter.com/pzf/status/1117848969105645568
LOL, just about the one method of firefighting that could cause more problems that it would solve?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1117844987293487104
Jesus, what an imbecile.
On a serious note that looks extremely bad. Can't see how they save anything east of the transepts in these pictures.
Devastating news to hear the spire has collapsed.
I hope you’re not serious. Desecration of such an iconic national monument would be a tragedy.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1117853532076404736
But the interior, the woodwork, the glass, possibly the bells...
It could easily be like a larger scale version of Coventry.
Edit - you also have to wonder, even if they can save the east end, how badly the organ will be damaged. Smoke, soot and electrical surges do not mix with delicate pipe work.
On topic for a moment, put bluntly, no.
There are three scenarios it seems to this non-Conservative observer - the "In Government" election, the "250" election and the "150" election.
If May steps down voluntarily (Cameron) or is forced from office (Thatcher) while the Conservatives remain in Government, it's much more likely the successor will come from the Cabinet so Hunt, Javid, Rudd perhaps?
The "250" election is when the Conservatives have lost power but only narrowly - they are a strong Opposition and it looks likely they will be out for only one term or less. Had such an event occurred in 1997 and for example Portillo had survived, would Hague have become leader from the position of Shadow Welsh Secretary? Seems improbable. Again you are looking at a youngish senior ex-Cabinet member who can re-invigorate the Party in a couple of years and take them back to power.
The "150" election is the 1997 scenario - the Conservatives have been given the dockside hooker treatment (to paraphrase Me Eagles) and a number of those who might have led the party have either fallen or realise that two terms minimum puts them out of the running. At that point even those in their late 40s among the survivors such as Tugendhat and Cleverly look unlikely. It's also worth mentioning Braintree was Labour from 1997 to 2005 there's no guarantee Cleverly would be among the survivors.
The obvious younger candidates to this observer are Kemi Badenoch and Rishi Sunak whose seats survived the 1997 purge and would likely survive again. Both would be a notable contrast to an ageing Labour frontbench and would be worth considering but only if returning to power looked like a 10-year project.
Would he have been organisationally superior in terms of long-term No Deal planning from the start? There's nothing in his background that suggests the methodical "putting the pieces in place" would have happened under his watch.
Would he have been more inclusive, in terms of reaching out across the House of Commons to assemble a coalition? Unlikely.
Would he have had the electoral disaster of 2016? Well, probably not. But that's a massive f*cking counterfactual.
Ultimately, the facts of negotiating with the EU would not have changed due to the presence of Boris on the team. Maybe he'd have had more red lines early on. Maybe he could have done a better job. But he is not a man with an eye for detail, and it seems more likely he would have handwaved something through, not realising its significance until later.
The only thing is, it isn't funny.
The Conservatives need a leader who all of them can at least speak with. I appreciate that limits the field considerably. They also need one that all of them can take seriously. That limits it further.
The Conservatives will probably choose a candidate who fails one or other of these tests, reasoning along the lines that Aaron Bell does. But for me it comes down to the same unpalatable choice between Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and maybe Matthew Hancock.
The Conservatives need a leader who all of them can at least speak with. I appreciate that limits the field considerably. They also need one that all of them can take seriously. That limits it further.
The Conservatives will probably choose a candidate who fails one or other of these tests, reasoning along the lines that Aaron Bell does. But for me it comes down to the same unpalatable choice between Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and maybe Matthew Hancock.
The Conservatives need a leader who all of them can at least speak with. I appreciate that limits the field considerably. They also need one that all of them can take seriously. That limits it further.
The Conservatives will probably choose a candidate who fails one or other of these tests, reasoning along the lines that Aaron Bell does. But for me it comes down to the same unpalatable choice between Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and maybe Matthew Hancock.
Notre Dame is just heartbreaking.
There is a chance that the walls will not be structurally sound for the sort of weight they have to hold afterwards.
On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, they magnificently restored York Minster's South Transept. Except they're sayingg the entire interior is ablaze.
https://www.diabetes.org.uk/research/research-round-up/research-spotlight/research-spotlight-low-calorie-liquid-diet
There are other useful positives for blood pressure, and arthritis too in such weight loss.
Keeping it off is the tough bit.
https://youtu.be/w6qYjisp51M
If it had been St Pauls the Brexit metaphors would be queuing round the block....
They've been trying to get repairs done for years, apparently the stonework was already in pretty rotten shape (perhaps inevitably given it's 900 years old).
A perfect example of the poor level of journalism generally and in particular on brexit
The French State owns the building (despite separation of church and state in 1905), so they can pay.
No expense should be spared for such an iconic building.
But if the interior is on fire...
But it's one thing protecting the interior from a fire in the wooden roof, and quite another to expect it to withstand the spire collapsing on it.
Would he ever just STFU .
As I say I can take him or leave him, but at least he has energy and ideas. And the 350m a week promise was a no brainer
Lets be fair, you used to argue with me that UKIP should get rid of Farage if they wanted to prosper... hardly a great track record of predictions
(With apologies to the person who memorably came up with that line about Richard Dawkins.)
A kg of fat is about 9000 Calories, so to lose 10kg* means consuming 1500 fewer Calories per day for 60 days. Abdominal fat is the bit that matters for diabetes, and waist at belly button level should be less than half of height is a simple metric.
*Initial weight loss is stored glycogen and water, so quicker.
I hope I'm being too pessimistic.
If something good can come out of this, it may be that we start to appreciate the marvellous architecture that surrounds us, and that we often take too much for granted.
Except Brutalist ...
I think your last paragraph is incorrect: I doubt that was me.
Exercise also really helps mental wellbeing: at least in my case.
The reports are that the interior has caught fire. Although hey also say that salvage is underway. Whether either or both are correct I don't know and I suspect we won't know before tomorrow.
Who could say it was a lie on the side of a bus if he did it?