politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is an early general election punters have no clear vi

Punters have no clear idea who will win the next general election as virtually every poll predicts yet another hung parliament.

Indeed the local and Euro elections are more likely to see both main parties facing losses to minor parties and apathy than any mid 1990s surge for Labour as Blair achieved pre 1997

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Perhaps the root of the daily life protocols thing.

https://twitter.com/BingoLittle75/status/1116432437633069058

"Wikipedia founder" though

Jimmy will be ragin'.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Perhaps the root of the daily life protocols thing.

https://twitter.com/BingoLittle75/status/1116432437633069058

"Wikipedia founder" though

Jimmy Wales will be mightily upset at that suggestion!!

Theuniondivvie said:

Perhaps the root of the daily life protocols thing.

https://twitter.com/BingoLittle75/status/1116432437633069058

He has effectively imposed an 8 year sentence on himself through choice, had he faced the music he would probably have been out after a year

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1116440109564534785

If there was an election now I think Lab would win it: Assuming they won on a Cameronesque renegotiate+referendum, Remain fans would mostly suck it up and vote for them where it counted, whereas Brexit enthusiasts are seriously miffed at the government so it's hard to see them being tactical.

However, the problem with the bet is that the Tories are somewhat in control of when the next election happens, and they won't call one unless they either think they'll win it - most likely because they get a new leader - or they completely run out of road.

Drutt said:

ROCKET NEWS: Elon tweets that wind shear is high and unless it drops then the launch is prolly off.

Another extension, then.



Edit 1 Wait, am I watching yesterday's tweets overlaid on on today's pics?
Edit 2 Yes. ROCKETS ARE STILL GO!

Looks like they’re gonna go through the motions again before scrubbing, same as yesterday.

Launch window is 22:35-00:31GMT, no sign of a countdown clock yet though.

Edit: The Israelis also came damn close to putting a lander on the moon tonight, great effort from them but sadly the landing was uncontrolled after a systems failure a couple of minutes from touchdown.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1116443005509087247

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1116445135120867328

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1116443005509087247

Theresa may regret telling MPs to go away and "reflect" over Easter.

On reflection they may all decide that times up for Mrs May!

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1116443005509087247

Theresa may regret telling MPs to go away and "reflect" over Easter.

On reflection they may all decide that times up for Mrs May!

The current lot of tories seem as useless as the labour mps in gordo time...they couldnt organize a coup either. There were two things you could count on with the tories, sensible business friendly economic policies and being able to knife a useless leader...they aint much on either front these days .

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1116424423953903616

Sandpit said:

Drutt said:

ROCKET NEWS: Elon tweets that wind shear is high and unless it drops then the launch is prolly off.

Another extension, then.



Edit 1 Wait, am I watching yesterday's tweets overlaid on on today's pics?
Edit 2 Yes. ROCKETS ARE STILL GO!

Looks like they’re gonna go through the motions again before scrubbing, same as yesterday.

Launch window is 22:35-00:31GMT, no sign of a countdown clock yet though.

Edit: The Israelis also came damn close to putting a lander on the moon tonight, great effort from them but sadly the landing was uncontrolled after a systems failure a couple of minutes from touchdown.

Yes, rotten luck. The failure was the space equivalent of having the computer restart and install all its updates just as you're printing everything for an important meeting in ten minutes.

Except on land you have to make five minutes of excuses and in space your four-hundred-million shekel spacecraft lawndarts into the Sea of Tranquillity at 300mph.

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1116443005509087247

Theresa may regret telling MPs to go away and "reflect" over Easter.

On reflection they may all decide that times up for Mrs May!

The current lot of tories seem as useless as the labour mps in gordo time...they couldnt organize a coup either. There were two things you could count on with the tories, sensible business friendly economic policies and being able to knife a useless leader...they aint much on either front these days .

Tories have lose their ruthlessness haven't they?

I blame the Posh Boys!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1116447656346300417

dr_spyn said:

This might have to explained very carefully to Corbyn and Abbott. https://twitter.com/LordCFalconer/status/1116435813838073856

He'll have to resign for that...

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

Except that the USA wasn't involved in the Assange case until today - everything up until now has been related to his charge of sexual assault in Sweden and of being unlawfully at large in the UK.

Oh, and Corbyn voted for that overmighty US extradition treaty, when the government of his party proposed it.

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

HMG will be hoping Sweden renews their extradition request and the extradition to America can then become someone elses problem!

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1116445135120867328

What is the possible range of sentence here? One toward the upper end of the range seems warranted given the circumstances, though no doubt some people will try to claim the personally inflicted hardships he has suffered to date make that unfair, or the unrelated extradition request make it unfair.

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

Except that the USA wasn't involved in the Assange case until today - everything up until now has been related to his charge of sexual assault in Sweden and of being unlawfully at large in the UK.

Oh, and Corbyn voted for that overmighty US extradition treaty, when the government of his party proposed it.

The Swedish details and shit smearing won't be the story when he is in the supermax with Chelsea

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1116447656346300417

Doesn’t there need to be another SI to update the exit day in the EUWA at some point before Friday?

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

Oh, I'm sure it will not be an entirely unpopular decision. The americans are after him. That he jumped bail on an extradition to sweden on unrelated matters will be conveniently forgotten by politicians and easily forgotten by the public.

Assange took refuge in the embassy in 2012 to avoid extradition to Sweden over a sexual assault case that has since been dropped.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47891737

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1116445135120867328

What is the possible range of sentence here? One toward the upper end of the range seems warranted given the circumstances, though no doubt some people will try to claim the personally inflicted hardships he has suffered to date make that unfair, or the unrelated extradition request make it unfair.

He’s facing a year for jumping bail, plus however long the extradition warrants take to get finally decided and appealed, probably all the way to the Supreme Court and Home Secretary. No judge is going to bail him in the meantime, for obvious reasons. Three more years in the British big house, maybe, if he’s lucky.

He’ll be in the “proper” prison too, not the white-collar open prison. He’s a Grade A escape risk, having the means and ability to get out if there was an opportunity to be taken.

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

A journalist blowing the whistle on illegal assassinations by the US military is quite a powerful argument. Corbyn's growing on me

AndyJS said:

17 consecutive leads for the Canadian Conservatives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Pre-campaign_period

More than we'll be able to say about UK the Conservative Party anytime soon...

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

A journalist blowing the whistle on illegal assassinations by the US military is quite a powerful argument. Corbyn's growing on me

You not in the slightest concerned that Jules appears to be very closely linked to Putin and all the info that was hacked was passed to him in order to aid Trump campaign against Clinton?

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

A journalist blowing the whistle on illegal assassinations by the US military is quite a powerful argument. Corbyn's growing on me

I'd have thought you'd be against Assange just on principle that he's supposedly been smearing shit on walls in the Ecuadorian Embassy...

I mean talk about common as muck...

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

17 consecutive leads for the Canadian Conservatives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Pre-campaign_period

More than we'll be able to say about UK the Conservative Party anytime soon...

Probably not, but they had 17 consectuive leads or at least ties which ended less than a month ago, and 11 consecutive leads in that time. Things change quickly, especially when you consider it is not as though the Tories were in a comfortable place from mid january to mid march 2019.

Danny565 said:

LMAO at the BBC 10pm news airing a Merseyside vox-pop with an "ordinary local businessman", who tells us that politicians should just pass May's deal, and neglecting to mention that said ordinary local businessman was also....an official Tory candidate at the 2017 election.

What a joke.

A Tory candidate in Knowsley, Labour's safest seat? I thought they didn't exist.

edmundintokyo said:

If there was an election now I think Lab would win it: Assuming they won on a Cameronesque renegotiate+referendum, Remain fans would mostly suck it up and vote for them where it counted, whereas Brexit enthusiasts are seriously miffed at the government so it's hard to see them being tactical.

However, the problem with the bet is that the Tories are somewhat in control of when the next election happens, and they won't call one unless they either think they'll win it - most likely because they get a new leader - or they completely run out of road.

Huge assumption there - that the EU would renegotiate and that Labour would offer a referendum with Remain as a choice.

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

A journalist blowing the whistle on illegal assassinations by the US military is quite a powerful argument. Corbyn's growing on me

I'd have thought you'd be against Assange just on principle that he's supposedly been smearing shit on walls in the Ecuadorian Embassy...

I mean talk about common as muck...

That made me laugh! Nothing wrong with being shallow.

Cyclefree said:

edmundintokyo said:

If there was an election now I think Lab would win it: Assuming they won on a Cameronesque renegotiate+referendum, Remain fans would mostly suck it up and vote for them where it counted, whereas Brexit enthusiasts are seriously miffed at the government so it's hard to see them being tactical.

However, the problem with the bet is that the Tories are somewhat in control of when the next election happens, and they won't call one unless they either think they'll win it - most likely because they get a new leader - or they completely run out of road.

Huge assumption there - that the EU would renegotiate and that Labour would offer a referendum with Remain as a choice.

Of course they would offer it with remain as a choice. The whole point of a referendum is to remain. It's about people having changed their minds and all that.

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

17 consecutive leads for the Canadian Conservatives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Pre-campaign_period

More than we'll be able to say about UK the Conservative Party anytime soon...

It's still very difficult to say which of the main two parties will get most votes at both the local elections and the Euro elections, which makes those elections all the more interesting.

Locals will be a very strong Labour win (10%+) Con in freefall.

EU elections much more difficult to predict but Con will face an absolute pummeling whatever else happens...

My local semi-rural Conservative area is the same from what I am hearing. Everyone is going to vote for Brexit parties, or they will abstain.
I think the Tories face total annihilation. It will be a complete humiliation and politically shocking. Theresa May will be forced out shortly after? I think probably yes.

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

AndyJS said:

Good to see Corbyn sticking up for Assange. The first time I've said anything positive about Jezza.

Save that we established on the previous thread that Corbyn voted for the Extradition Act which implemented the US-UK extradition treaty. There were lots of people campaigning against it precisely because of its overmighty reach but Corbyn was not one of them.

AndyJS said:

Danny565 said:

LMAO at the BBC 10pm news airing a Merseyside vox-pop with an "ordinary local businessman", who tells us that politicians should just pass May's deal, and neglecting to mention that said ordinary local businessman was also....an official Tory candidate at the 2017 election.

What a joke.

A Tory candidate in Knowsley, Labour's safest seat? I thought they didn't exist.

Hey, they have lept to second place in the seat now, so it is practically a target seat.

Newsnight:

Baroness Kennedy (Labour): difficult to know whether Assange can get a fair trial in the US.

MikeSmithson said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

A journalist blowing the whistle on illegal assassinations by the US military is quite a powerful argument. Corbyn's growing on me

I'd have thought you'd be against Assange just on principle that he's supposedly been smearing shit on walls in the Ecuadorian Embassy...

I mean talk about common as muck...

That made me laugh! Nothing wrong with being shallow.

Come on. Cut the crap guys

Yeah, leave the stool pigeon alone.

Cyclefree said:

Pulpstar said:

Decent ratio for Jezza on his tweet to be fair. Assange sounds like a shitty house guest but Corbyn has struck a chord with his implied concern about what many particularly on the left see as an overmighty US extradition system.

AndyJS said:

Good to see Corbyn sticking up for Assange. The first time I've said anything positive about Jezza.

Save that we established on the previous thread that Corbyn voted for the Extradition Act which implemented the US-UK extradition treaty. There were lots of people campaigning against it precisely because of its overmighty reach but Corbyn was not one of them.

It will be very interesting if that point can be made to stick. It does seem hard to object to the principle of the apparently over generous to the US extradition treaty if he supported it himself. Did he not know what he was doing? Even if we believe that, he was far from shy from speaking his mind and voting his own way if he disagreed with his party, so when he votes for something one has to assume he backed it, not that he was just being a loyal soldier.

New party registered with the Electoral Commission, Progressive People's Party - a better name than ChangeUK?

Axiomatic said:

kle4 said:

I feel like the only person who doesn't care if Assange is extradited or not. Seems like quite a few people out there are eager to use him as a proxy to express their dislike of american policy and that's the only thing that matters. It just doesn't seem like a political issue to me until the court process plays out and it lands on the Home Secretary of the day's desk. Granted there's interesting speculation based on who that might be, but it's all a bit jumping the gun

Axiomatic said:

With Corbyn's latest remarks on Assange, adopting the SWP position, and deeply antagonising our major ally, this mild centrist is provoked to ask: what does Corbyn have to do to get "dealt with" by MI6?

If there is a clear and present danger to the UK, it is not Brexit (which I dislike intensely), it is Corbyn. It is therefore the job of the Deep State to remove him from the picture. The fact Corbyn sails towards power tells us that 1. the idea of a Deep State is a myth, and 2. MI6 must be staffed by inept and cowardly idiots who couldn't assassinate a chicken stuck in a shoebox.

The deep state is a myth, but I would be wary of even in jest talking of politicians being 'dealt with'.

I thought it was obvious i was parodying the paranoid views of the Corbynite left,

That's why I said 'even in jest' - too close to some real beliefs out there!

AndyJS said:

Newsnight:

Baroness Kennedy (Labour): difficult to know whether Assange can get a fair trial in the US.

I think that a genuine issue, and by the look of him his mental and physical condition has deteriated to the point that he needs medical and psychological assessment first.

Sure he blew the whistle on some dodgy atrocities, but he also leaked a lot of other stuff that was quite malicious concerning our intelligence gathering.

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

Danny565 said:

LMAO at the BBC 10pm news airing a vox-pop with an "ordinary local businessman", who informs us that politicians should just "get behind May's deal", and neglecting to mention that said ordinary local businessman was also....an official Tory candidate at the 2017 election.

What a joke.

Probably trying to make it up to Tories who have complained about various 'ordinary' people interviewed on various matters who turn out to be official campaigners for some Labour policy or whatever. They moan about that all the time, I cannot say I've bothered to check how often the complaint is true.

I mean, sure, journalists can't be expected to trawl through every tweet someone has ever made to check they're not biased towards one party. But in the case of "local businessman" Tony Caldeira, it would've taken the BBC's researchers about 5 seconds:

https://twitter.com/tony4ww/with_replies?lang=en

But journalists are quite happy to trawl through every Tweet of a young actress who just got her big break taken away:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6911599/Emmerdale-EXCLUSIVE-Shila-Iqbal-FIRED-using-N-word.html

And much more seriously, of the woman who's just been elected chairperson of the Students' Union. MI5 will have a large file on her.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2019/04/10/new-nus-president-has-said-thatshe-wanted-oppress-white-people/

Cyclefree said:

edmundintokyo said:

If there was an election now I think Lab would win it: Assuming they won on a Cameronesque renegotiate+referendum, Remain fans would mostly suck it up and vote for them where it counted, whereas Brexit enthusiasts are seriously miffed at the government so it's hard to see them being tactical.

However, the problem with the bet is that the Tories are somewhat in control of when the next election happens, and they won't call one unless they either think they'll win it - most likely because they get a new leader - or they completely run out of road.

Huge assumption there - that the EU would renegotiate and that Labour would offer a referendum with Remain as a choice.

I didn't say the EU would renegotiate, I said Labour would run on renegotiating.

AndyJS said:

Newsnight:

Baroness Kennedy (Labour): difficult to know whether Assange can get a fair trial in the US.

She's probably right. I do wonder though whether she was as concerned about whether the NatWest Three - extradited under the Labour government's Extradition Act 2003 which presumably will apply in Assange's case - could get a fair trial in the US.

HYUFD said:

Punters have no clear idea who will win the next general election as virtually every poll predicts yet another hung parliament.

Indeed the local and Euro elections are more likely to see both main parties facing losses to minor parties and apathy than any mid 1990s surge for Labour as Blair achieved pre 1997

Lay hung parliament is the bet, if previous hypothetical long term polls are any guide

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

edmundintokyo said:

If there was an election now I think Lab would win it: Assuming they won on a Cameronesque renegotiate+referendum, Remain fans would mostly suck it up and vote for them where it counted, whereas Brexit enthusiasts are seriously miffed at the government so it's hard to see them being tactical.

However, the problem with the bet is that the Tories are somewhat in control of when the next election happens, and they won't call one unless they either think they'll win it - most likely because they get a new leader - or they completely run out of road.

Huge assumption there - that the EU would renegotiate and that Labour would offer a referendum with Remain as a choice.

The WA is closed, but a different PD is very likely under Labour.

Indeed with CU, and close alignment locked into consumer, environmental and workers rights I could live with it. Clearly inferior to full membership, but streets ahead of Boris Britain.

But the WA is a legally binding Treaty, and the PD is meaningless political bollocks. At the insistance of the EU, who have all put their requests in the first document and all the British requests in the second.

Could someone in favour of a CU arrangement please state why it's a positively good idea.

Cyclefree said:

kle4 said:

Cyclefree said:

edmundintokyo said:

If there was an election now I think Lab would win it: Assuming they won on a Cameronesque renegotiate+referendum, Remain fans would mostly suck it up and vote for them where it counted, whereas Brexit enthusiasts are seriously miffed at the government so it's hard to see them being tactical.

However, the problem with the bet is that the Tories are somewhat in control of when the next election happens, and they won't call one unless they either think they'll win it - most likely because they get a new leader - or they completely run out of road.

Huge assumption there - that the EU would renegotiate and that Labour would offer a referendum with Remain as a choice.

Of course they would offer it with remain as a choice. The whole point of a referendum is to remain. It's about people having changed their minds and all that.

You seem very certain. i have only ever heard Labour talk about a “confirmatory referendum” which sounds like weasel words to me.

Oh, of that I have no doubt. Some on here who didn't want remain to be an option tried consoling themselves that an ordinary reading of those words could not possibly mean one of the options was remain. But my certainty is just a matter of the politics of it, whatever words they use - I could believe Corbyn and some others in the leadership clique would be satisfied with a confirmatory referendum without remain satisfying things, depending on what they were confirming, but for so many of the MPs and members the point is to remain, and given the extension and revoke now being so openly popular, I just don't see how, if Labour get the chance to dictate the choice, that remain is not included as an option.

People forget Corbyn has been leader for quite some time now, and he is more canny and flexible than people think he is - after this much aggravation and annoyance he wouldn't give up his chance at power by half arsing it with a confirmatory referendum if he needed to keep the members happy with a remain option.

rpjs said:

Sandpit said:

Drutt said:

ROCKET NEWS: Elon tweets that wind shear is high and unless it drops then the launch is prolly off.

Another extension, then.



Edit 1 Wait, am I watching yesterday's tweets overlaid on on today's pics?
Edit 2 Yes. ROCKETS ARE STILL GO!

Looks like they’re gonna go through the motions again before scrubbing, same as yesterday.

Launch window is 22:35-00:31GMT, no sign of a countdown clock yet though.

Edit: The Israelis also came damn close to putting a lander on the moon tonight, great effort from them but sadly the landing was uncontrolled after a systems failure a couple of minutes from touchdown.

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1116442323477381120

Looks like we could be on for tonight, launch window opens in 45 minutes and fuelling underway.

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

edmundintokyo said:

If there was an election now I think Lab would win it: Assuming they won on a Cameronesque renegotiate+referendum, Remain fans would mostly suck it up and vote for them where it counted, whereas Brexit enthusiasts are seriously miffed at the government so it's hard to see them being tactical.

However, the problem with the bet is that the Tories are somewhat in control of when the next election happens, and they won't call one unless they either think they'll win it - most likely because they get a new leader - or they completely run out of road.

Huge assumption there - that the EU would renegotiate and that Labour would offer a referendum with Remain as a choice.

The WA is closed, but a different PD is very likely under Labour.

Indeed with CU, and close alignment locked into consumer, environmental and workers rights I could live with it. Clearly inferior to full membership, but streets ahead of Boris Britain.

But the WA is a legally binding Treaty, and the PD is meaningless political bollocks. At the insistance of the EU, who have all put their requests in the first document and all the British requests in the second.

Could someone in favour of a CU arrangement please state why it's a positively good idea.

Because it would damage the Conservatives.

Foxy said:

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

17 consecutive leads for the Canadian Conservatives.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Pre-campaign_period

More than we'll be able to say about UK the Conservative Party anytime soon...

On that subject:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1116452301806481410?s=19

Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!