politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-CON leader betting favourite, Javid, drops sharply amidst r

First! Like... Boris?

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1115958619982503941

Devonshire dockyard evacuated. Bae confirm on going incident, rumours of a bomb on one of the Asture class subs! This is zero hedge though.......

What is truly remarkable is both the diversity and spread of the field. One of May's few remaining strengths is that there is no consensus at all on who should replace her. This inclines more to hold onto nurse than might otherwise be the case. If you are a Javid supporter do you feel it is worth risking Boris? Or Raab? As with Brexit far more are against any one candidate than support any other.

We can't go on like this-v-OMG, we can't have that. It's a tough call.

I wouldn't read too much into either the current odds or movements in them. A lot will depend on the exact timing of any contest, the crucial question of which candidates are best at organising a campaign amongst MPs and setting up alliances, and on how the leading candidates perform in the campaign both at the MP level and the membership level. Javid certainly has a decent chance but I have the impression that Jeremy Hunt (who is fishing in similar waters) is ahead on campaign readiness.

The one big anomaly in the market IMO is that the odds on Boris are far too short.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1115958619982503941

So Steve Baker would jump from a plane, Mark Francois would have a shotgun put in his mouth, are the hardliners looking to create Remainer fantasies or is that just a windfall benefit?

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

May 1.09 to go before the year end. I know it's likely, but the Tory coup machine has faultered recently.
"Now is not the time" and all that may mean she sees out the year...

~10-1 for May to survive the year is a good price I think.

Javid was doing well just a few months ago so I doubt Islamophobia has much to do with it.

I think it's just that as Remainer May has screwed up Brexit the idea Con would have another Remain leader while Brexit is unresolved is a bit far-fetched.

I doubt he did himself any favours with his internet clampdown this week either...

Pulpstar said:

May 1.09 to go before the year end. I know it's likely, but the Tory coup machine has faultered recently.
"Now is not the time" and all that may mean she sees out the year...

~10-1 for May to survive the year is a good price I think.

I don't think they'll get her out. Not even with a brillo pad, plenty of elbow grease and a packet of Dettol wipes.

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Whilst public transport is certainly something that needs active policy to manage, I'm not sure the government should be concerned with whether consumer shopping is online or not..

Even if it results in the death of the High Street?

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Yes, it's an excellent piece and a decent reflection of how it is in many parts of supposedly affluent south and south east England and the notion they are becoming part of the London megacity.

This was the line which resonated with me:

"Maybe the die was cast 40 years ago, when leading Tories embraced the credo of market fundamentalism and began to forget about civic pride and active government"

2008 was as existential a crisis for the economic model as the 1970s. The answer then was to repudiate Butskellism in favour of monetarism. The response to 2008 was austerity and even that has been discredited leaving Corbyn's socialism the only "new" thinking in town.

So many of our issues start from the economic model which is still rooted in the notions of the 80s.We need to change our thinking of how the economy works to benefit society and how government should work to actually provide good government for all.

TGOHF said:

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The LAB issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

Labour can't even bring themselves to elect a woman. Like the Lib Dems it's got to be male, pale and stale.

Blair was 43, to be fair. Just as well Corbyn holds him up as the light of progress within the party, isn't it

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BrookesTimes/status/1115929787267207173

Brookes at his best!

dyedwoolie said:

Cities for living in. Essential development.

Indeed - the notion of regeneration of city centres purely in terms of retail is long dead. Many of the developments coming forward are predicated on the notion of "place" where you live, work and relax in the same physical environment. Flats on top of small start-up units or common working areas with excellent wifi surrounded by smaller retail opportunities are the new models.

Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.

The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.

TGOHF said:

dyedwoolie said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Whilst public transport is certainly something that needs active policy to manage, I'm not sure the government should be concerned with whether consumer shopping is online or not..

Even if it results in the death of the High Street?

You can't get a haircut, a pint of beer in the sun or a cooked meal on the internet.

Pedestrianise the high street, convert upper stories into flats and make them places for people to gather and socialise. If you want to buy a spanner - go online.

Cities for living in. Essential development.

In 1734 I used to be able to walk down the main street and have a choice of blacksmiths to get my horses reshod - now there isn't a single one - disgraceful that the government has let this happen..

Without coaching inns how the hell is one to ride into town? Cities will become primarily residential again, offices, flats, cafe bars and niche businesses. No shops.

Pulpstar said:

May 1.09 to go before the year end. I know it's likely, but the Tory coup machine has faultered recently.
"Now is not the time" and all that may mean she sees out the year...

~10-1 for May to survive the year is a good price I think.

I agree. I laid that for a fair amount at 1.08 last week.

OK she's going, all agree - I agree - but she is the PM, she has the job and will not be giving it up easily.

And then there is the real phenomenon of inertia. Inertia makes it hard for things of any great import to happen. In extremis it stops them happening altogether.

Perhaps business rates have had their day?

All we need is another £30bn per year source of tax revenue.

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Whilst public transport is certainly something that needs active policy to manage, I'm not sure the government should be concerned with whether consumer shopping is online or not..

Even if it results in the death of the High Street?

You can't get a haircut, a pint of beer in the sun or a cooked meal on the internet.

Pedestrianise the high street, convert upper stories into flats and make them places for people to gather and socialise. If you want to buy a spanner - go online.

In fairness, I often need a spanner/tool within a few minutes, I don't want to wait a day or more to get it.

But, I agree with much of the rest of your post.

RoyalBlue said:

Perhaps business rates have had their day?

All we need is another £30bn per year source of tax revenue.

£100 fine for anyone who mentions Brexit.

TGOHF said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Whilst public transport is certainly something that needs active policy to manage, I'm not sure the government should be concerned with whether consumer shopping is online or not..

Even if it results in the death of the High Street?

You can't get a haircut, a pint of beer in the sun or a cooked meal on the internet.

Pedestrianise the high street, convert upper stories into flats and make them places for people to gather and socialise. If you want to buy a spanner - go online.

Isn't that essentially the point John Harris is making - that the move to online shopping means that there there is a need for policy changes in areas such as planning and taxation, which aren't currently being given sufficient attention?

London seems to have led the way with congestion charges and investment in transport.

Not a single city, town has followed (apart from 1 street in Durham).

Is that central government's fault ?

There was a proposal to set up a congestion charge in Manchester – but, with the wisdom of fools, the numpties up there chose to put it to a referendum. Amazing as it might seem, it was voted down.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TGOHF said:

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The LAB issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

Labour can't even bring themselves to elect a woman. Like the Lib Dems it's got to be male, pale and stale.

Blair was 43, to be fair. Just as well Corbyn holds him up as the light of progress within the party, isn't it

Interesting to reflect that of the four subsequent leaders (counting Harman) only one was born after Blair.

_Anazina_ said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Whilst public transport is certainly something that needs active policy to manage, I'm not sure the government should be concerned with whether consumer shopping is online or not..

Even if it results in the death of the High Street?

You can't get a haircut, a pint of beer in the sun or a cooked meal on the internet.

Pedestrianise the high street, convert upper stories into flats and make them places for people to gather and socialise. If you want to buy a spanner - go online.

In fairness, I often need a spanner/tool within a few minutes, I don't want to wait a day or more to get it.

But, I agree with much of the rest of your post.

3d printing will obliterate the need for specialized tool shops and the like. You just buy the blueprint. Clothing will be printed too, the next 20 years will see quite the change

TGOHF said:

_Anazina_ said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Whilst public transport is certainly something that needs active policy to manage, I'm not sure the government should be concerned with whether consumer shopping is online or not..

Even if it results in the death of the High Street?

You can't get a haircut, a pint of beer in the sun or a cooked meal on the internet.

Pedestrianise the high street, convert upper stories into flats and make them places for people to gather and socialise. If you want to buy a spanner - go online.

In fairness, I often need a spanner/tool within a few minutes, I don't want to wait a day or more to get it.

But, I agree with much of the rest of your post.

Amazon do same day delivery in many regions now...

Ironmongers are a good thing - they don't have to be on the high street - in fact they are probably more competitive if they aren't.

I find I can rarely – if ever – find the tools I need for a job on same-day (as yet). That said ScrewFix click and collect is pretty good and it means I can turn over the pick up in an hour or so.

Highly doubt Macron actually wants to force no deal. France's traditional role is bad cop when it comes to the UK, he will just want to squeeze out a few more concessions and humiliate us a bit more as is to be expected when you have your old rival on the ropes. I would be far more worried if it was Merkel pushing for no deal.

France is very closely tied with the UK and it would suffer more than the average European country in no deal. If I was going to take a stab at ranking how bad it would be for each country

1. Ireland
2. The UK
3. The Netherlands
4. France
5. Germany
6. Spain
7. Poland maybe

Scott_P said:

dyedwoolie said:

3d printing will obliterate the need for specialized tool shops and the like. You just buy the blueprint. Clothing will be printed too, the next 20 years will see quite the change

Where do you get the specialized tools to repair your broken 3D printer?

Lol

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The LAB issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

The last Labour leader was Jewish (culturally, anyway), as is the prince beyond the water the PLP wish would come back.

Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The places worst placed to deal with the decline of the high street are those where retail is the main focus of the place. Since places which have other offices or industries are already doing better, the effect is to widen the gap between the succeeding and the failing parts of the country.

The Americans have the right idea - ghost towns - if there is no reason for the town to exist then it simply doesn't.

Excellent market efficiency.

I found this article on the future of American Shopping Malls interesting

https://www.axios.com/future-of-malls-retail-columbus-5a46a516-a907-4119-bd97-0d2bd1dab5ae.html

148grss said:

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The LAB issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

The last Labour leader was Jewish (culturally, anyway), as is the prince beyond the water the PLP wish would come back.

Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.

Okaaaay...

So just to be clear - because the right wing press were nasty to Miliband (and Howard, let it not be forgotten) it's OK for the current Labour leader to appear with Holocaust deniers?

Richard_Nabavi said:

148grss said:

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The LAB issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

The last Labour leader was Jewish (culturally, anyway), as is the prince beyond the water they all hope will come back.

Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.

No-one has ever suggested that Labour was an antisemitic party before Corbyn became leader. It's a recent development.

Your comments about the 'right-wing press' are just silly.

Actually, that's not true. A poster depicting Howard and Letwin as pigs had to be pulled after allegations of anti-semitism.

Wasn't there also a campaign portraying Howard as Fagin, or am I confusing that with something else?

Scott_P said:

dyedwoolie said:

3d printing will obliterate the need for specialized tool shops and the like. You just buy the blueprint. Clothing will be printed too, the next 20 years will see quite the change

Where do you get the specialized tools to repair your broken 3D printer?

From another 3D printer?

Basically, it's 3D printers all the way down.

Anorak said:

From another 3D printer?

Basically, it's 3D printers all the way down.

Dadge said:

dyedwoolie said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

TGOHF said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Whilst public transport is certainly something that needs active policy to manage, I'm not sure the government should be concerned with whether consumer shopping is online or not..

Even if it results in the death of the High Street?

You can't get a haircut, a pint of beer in the sun or a cooked meal on the internet.

Pedestrianise the high street, convert upper stories into flats and make them places for people to gather and socialise. If you want to buy a spanner - go online.

Cities for living in. Essential development.

Government has the power to set taxes appropriately to remove the online advantage.

But not the convenience, delivery to your or your instructed recipients door, 24 hour availability, massive range available instantly and competitive price (if they don't tax it out of existence).

Shopping and the High Street has changed. Maintenance by taxation isn't likely to succeed.

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Perhaps business rates have had their day?

All we need is another £30bn per year source of tax revenue.

£100 fine for anyone who mentions Brexit.

That could literally be the most popular tax in history!

ydoethur said:

148grss said:

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The LAB issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

The last Labour leader was Jewish (culturally, anyway), as is the prince beyond the water the PLP wish would come back.

Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.

Okaaaay...

So just to be clear - because the right wing press were nasty to Miliband (and Howard, let it not be forgotten) it's OK for the current Labour leader to appear with Holocaust deniers?

I'm not saying antisemitism is okay in Labour or on the right. I'm saying that to many lefties within Labour it seems like an issue used to attack the left and ignored on the right, and therefore a hypocritical partisan issue, not one that should be dealt with in the manner many would agree it should. The attacks from the right wing on George Soros are rarely called out as antisemitic, but that is what they are.

On Right Wing antisemitism towards Ed Miliband specifically:

https://forward.com/opinion/world/306666/the-strangeness-of-ed-miliband/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/06/sun-front-page-antisemitic-save-our-bacon-ed-miliband

timmo said:

O/T
For those who have sat in meetings with Javid they know that he is not up to the job. He has no empathy and to many he has the ego the size of a planet.If it gets as far as the members he has no chance unless he is up against Hammond i suppose.

Anyway the job is impossible, the Tories are completely unleadable. Even if Javid had the leadership skills of Moses he could not find a Brexit policy agreeable to both Mark Francois and Dominic Grieve.

Looking at the betting / polling on the Tory leaders, is this gonna be like the GOP 2012 race, where everyone got there 5 minutes on top of polling, but in the end to favourite wins? I understand the way GOP primaries work is VERY different from the way the CON leadership works, but can CON MPs really justify not picking Johnson, for instance, to get to the final 2 if 30-40% of the membership want him as leader?

148grss said:

The last Labour leader was Jewish (culturally, anyway), as is the prince beyond the water the PLP wish would come back.

Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.

I think there IS an issue in Labour but it is also true that it is exaggerated and cynically exploited by political opponents.

Amongst the 500,000 members there are a tiny fraction (but because of the large membership it is not an insignificant absolute number) who are antisemitic, either through a belief in softhead "Jewish capitalists run the World" conspiracy theories, and/or through an over-identification with, and an immersion over the years in, the Palestine cause.

It needs stamping out, it really does. However, I do not believe should a Corbyn led Labour government come to power that there is the remotest prospect of antisemitism influencing any policy that they might consider or pursue, or of the lives of Jewish people in the UK being adversely impacted in any way.

If I did, I would not vote for them.

matt said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Is the line about under 40's and property true or the view from London transposed across the country?

It is ceasing to be the case. Rates of home ownership are starting to rise again, among people aged over 25. 750,000 people became first time buyers in the past two years.

Housing became unaffordable for loads of people, as property prices rose by 320% from 1996 to 2007. Outside London, and a few hotspots, they've barely moved since then.

148grss said:

ydoethur said:

148grss said:

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The LAB issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

The last Labour leader was Jewish (culturally, anyway), as is the prince beyond the water the PLP wish would come back.

Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.

Okaaaay...

So just to be clear - because the right wing press were nasty to Miliband (and Howard, let it not be forgotten) it's OK for the current Labour leader to appear with Holocaust deniers?

I'm not saying antisemitism is okay in Labour or on the right. I'm saying that to many lefties within Labour it seems like an issue used to attack the left and ignored on the right, and therefore a hypocritical partisan issue, not one that should be dealt with in the manner many would agree it should. The attacks from the right wing on George Soros are rarely called out as antisemitic, but that is what they are.

On Right Wing antisemitism towards Ed Miliband specifically:

https://forward.com/opinion/world/306666/the-strangeness-of-ed-miliband/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/06/sun-front-page-antisemitic-save-our-bacon-ed-miliband

Yeah agree it should be called out wherever it appears. And often is.

https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-criticised-for-anti-semitic-howard-poster-488998.html

Edit I see @ydoethur got there before me.

Richard_Nabavi said:

148grss said:

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The LAB issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

The last Labour leader was Jewish (culturally, anyway), as is the prince beyond the water they all hope will come back.

Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.

No-one has ever suggested that Labour was an antisemitic party before Corbyn became leader. It's a recent development.

Your comments about the 'right-wing press' are just silly. Let's not forget that the bacon-butty farce was a Labour photo-shoot! Nothing to do with the press, right-wing or otherwise.

That is stretching a point, to put it mildly. The bacon mis-munch was a freeze-frame deliberately chosen by the press to make EM look awkward. I challenge you to be videoed or shot eating and not look ugly or inelegant in a single still.

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

matt said:

AndyJS said:

Another excellent state of the nation John Harris article.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity

"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."

Is the line about under 40's and property true or the view from London transposed across the country?

It is ceasing to be the case. Rates of home ownership are starting to rise again, among people aged over 25. 750,000 people became first time buyers in the past two years.

Housing became unaffordable for loads of people, as property prices rose by 320% from 1996 to 2007. Outside London, and a few hotspots, they've barely moved since then.

Or, in the case of the northeast fallen by 7.1% between 2007 and 2017. Source ONS.

A chart might be more useful than looking relative to an arbitrary date. Sean did say it was starting to rise again, implying a more recent turnaround.

TOPPING said:

148grss said:

ydoethur said:

148grss said:

kinabalu said:

There is a difference. The
issue goes right to the heart of the party’s leadership while nobody is saying that Theresa May is in anyway sympathetic or involved.

OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.

(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)

The last Labour leader was Jewish (culturally, anyway), as is the prince beyond the water the PLP wish would come back.

Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.

Okaaaay...

So just to be clear - because the right wing press were nasty to Miliband (and Howard, let it not be forgotten) it's OK for the current Labour leader to appear with Holocaust deniers?

I'm not saying antisemitism is okay in Labour or on the right. I'm saying that to many lefties within Labour it seems like an issue used to attack the left and ignored on the right, and therefore a hypocritical partisan issue, not one that should be dealt with in the manner many would agree it should. The attacks from the right wing on George Soros are rarely called out as antisemitic, but that is what they are.

On Right Wing antisemitism towards Ed Miliband specifically:

https://forward.com/opinion/world/306666/the-strangeness-of-ed-miliband/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/06/sun-front-page-antisemitic-save-our-bacon-ed-miliband

Yeah agree it should be called out wherever it appears. And often is.

https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-criticised-for-anti-semitic-howard-poster-488998.html

Edit I see @ydoethur got there before me.

#newprofilepic?



Available for the coinage of your choice at Hornchurch Airfield Tesco

The bacon butty jibe against Ed Miliband was not antisemitic.