politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-CON leader betting favourite, Javid, drops sharply amidst r
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-CON leader betting favourite, Javid, drops sharply amidst reports of plots to block him
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
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Certainly shot himself in the foot.
Not a great look rn
Edit - although as ever Zerohedge has sensationalized what looks like a possibly false bomb threat
We can't go on like this-v-OMG, we can't have that. It's a tough call.
Has anyone mentioned this curious polling offering?
https://hanburystrategycloud.filecloudonline.com/ui/core/index.html?mode=single&path=/SHARED/data/gux0YC3cc8BBIHJB
For those who can't be arsed to read the tables, LAB 40% CON 31%.
Yes, I know...
The one big anomaly in the market IMO is that the odds on Boris are far too short.
The Union Jacks would be flying and May's path would be strewn with rose petal where'er she trod.
Presumably the actual impact of leaving without a WA might depress the Conservative numbers in a couple of weeks which might not be good for the local elections but as Sean F pointed out most of those voting now do so by post so the votes will be in before things get too serious.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/07/theresa-may-berks-bucks-thames-valley-tory-austerity
"With Brexit eating the Tories up, any notion of how to address such modern issues as the state of local public services, the migration of consumer spending online or our awful public transport now seems to be beyond their collective grasp; by way of ideas, all they have to cling on to is the old ideal of the property-owning democracy, which has long since shut out people under 40, and thus proved to be not very democratic at all."
"It is a truism among a certain sort of Leaver that Britain is, economically, a bit of a catch – if only we sold ourselves better. If we only showed a bit more confidence we could do so much better for ourselves. Rule Britannia and all that. Even Cabinet ministers – who really should know better – go in for this stuff. Even in private."
"Now is not the time" and all that may mean she sees out the year...
~10-1 for May to survive the year is a good price I think.
I think it's just that as Remainer May has screwed up Brexit the idea Con would have another Remain leader while Brexit is unresolved is a bit far-fetched.
I doubt he did himself any favours with his internet clampdown this week either...
She's toast.
https://youtu.be/-FpQJgpQJHM
OTOH, if the Tory membership are reluctant to have a leader who is Muslim, whereas the Labour membership would be happy with a Jewish one provided that he or she was sufficiently left wing and sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, that would also be a difference.
(The 'if' is not currently provable, I realize that.)
This was the line which resonated with me:
"Maybe the die was cast 40 years ago, when leading Tories embraced the credo of market fundamentalism and began to forget about civic pride and active government"
2008 was as existential a crisis for the economic model as the 1970s. The answer then was to repudiate Butskellism in favour of monetarism. The response to 2008 was austerity and even that has been discredited leaving Corbyn's socialism the only "new" thinking in town.
So many of our issues start from the economic model which is still rooted in the notions of the 80s.We need to change our thinking of how the economy works to benefit society and how government should work to actually provide good government for all.
https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1115933203032887297
Pedestrianise the high street, convert upper stories into flats and make them places for people to gather and socialise. If you want to buy a spanner - go online.
That may be true. But a failure to act, swiftly or decisively enough, to stop this sort of problem - even if it is now small - will likely result in it getting worse. The Tories really cannot afford to be thought of as hostile to Muslims and there is a risk that they already are or that they will be, if they don't deal with this sort of issue.
They would do well to learn from this - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/
Not a single city, town has followed (apart from 1 street in Durham).
Is that central government's fault ?
Public services are looking at "hubs" where all public services are co-located and access to one part of the public sector equals access to them all.
The next thing to go will be the traditional suburb - horrendously outmoded and ill-suited to a world where there will be less requirement to travel or commute but where social interaction will still be needed.
OK she's going, all agree - I agree - but she is the PM, she has the job and will not be giving it up easily.
And then there is the real phenomenon of inertia. Inertia makes it hard for things of any great import to happen. In extremis it stops them happening altogether.
(In fact, both men are avowed atheists – how can Javid be classed as a Muslim when he doesn't believe in Allah?)
All we need is another £30bn per year source of tax revenue.
Excellent market efficiency.
But, I agree with much of the rest of your post.
Ironmongers are a good thing - they don't have to be on the high street - in fact they are probably more competitive if they aren't.
“If Brexit is overturned, and it was just a scream against life in 2016, what have politicians got to offer the 52%?”
The towns Harris describes sound like my neck of the woods, the high street is dead.
I think the answer is Blue Labour
See diesel gate as an example.
That is one vested interest that could do with being reigned in.
France is very closely tied with the UK and it would suffer more than the average European country in no deal. If I was going to take a stab at ranking how bad it would be for each country
1. Ireland
2. The UK
3. The Netherlands
4. France
5. Germany
6. Spain
7. Poland maybe
For those who have sat in meetings with Javid they know that he is not up to the job. He has no empathy and to many he has the ego the size of a planet.If it gets as far as the members he has no chance unless he is up against Hammond i suppose.
Again, one of the wild issues with the "Labour are super antisemitic" issue is they did have a Jewish leader in Ed Miliband, and it was the right wing press who were antisemitic towards him and his family, and nobody on the right batted an eye. His father was othered, he was othered and literally turned into a sneaky, opportunist who'd stab his own brother in the back for power who literally couldn't eat pork like a normal person.
I found this article on the future of American Shopping Malls interesting
https://www.axios.com/future-of-malls-retail-columbus-5a46a516-a907-4119-bd97-0d2bd1dab5ae.html
Your comments about the 'right-wing press' are just silly. Let's not forget that the bacon-butty farce was a Labour photo-shoot! Nothing to do with the press, right-wing or otherwise.
So just to be clear - because the right wing press were nasty to Miliband (and Howard, let it not be forgotten) it's OK for the current Labour leader to appear with Holocaust deniers?
Wasn't there also a campaign portraying Howard as Fagin, or am I confusing that with something else?
Basically, it's 3D printers all the way down.
A friend of mine recently built a house, and was frustrated by the electrician who turned up every day, looked at the day's work, then drove to the wholesaler to buy parts (wasting an hour each time). It seemed strange that the guy didn't buy dozens of sockets and reels of T&E at the start of the job. In any case, he didn't buy a new screwdriver each day.
Shopping and the High Street has changed. Maintenance by taxation isn't likely to succeed.
Yet your point about tradesmen stands – it's baffling. See also materials. Electricians particularly seem to often lack the right cable/bulb/part etc and you think, 'are these really that rare?' Answer is, 'no', It's just bad prep on their part.
On Right Wing antisemitism towards Ed Miliband specifically:
https://forward.com/opinion/world/306666/the-strangeness-of-ed-miliband/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/06/sun-front-page-antisemitic-save-our-bacon-ed-miliband
Sainsburys? KFC? NO!
They will kill the traditional small shops.
Pedestrianisation? NO! People want to park right outside the shop. And clog up traffic, pollute the streets, etc.
Festivals? NO! Too noisy, bring undesirable elements in.
Meanwhile, everything shuts and people go elsewhere. Their answer? More parking spaces...
Amongst the 500,000 members there are a tiny fraction (but because of the large membership it is not an insignificant absolute number) who are antisemitic, either through a belief in softhead "Jewish capitalists run the World" conspiracy theories, and/or through an over-identification with, and an immersion over the years in, the Palestine cause.
It needs stamping out, it really does. However, I do not believe should a Corbyn led Labour government come to power that there is the remotest prospect of antisemitism influencing any policy that they might consider or pursue, or of the lives of Jewish people in the UK being adversely impacted in any way.
If I did, I would not vote for them.
The problem is we have a major party led by a man who has repeatedly and wilfully made common cause with extreme racists. Now, it's easy to shoot the messenger, but let's not lose sight of the fact that the press are not having to invent anything. It's his own backbenchers who are accusing him (and Formby, who has a similarly problematic record) of anti-Semitic behaviour.
Now is he personally anti-Semitic? Probably not. But in a sense that's actually less excusable because he should not then be going with their views. Arguably, the worst thing it it shows he is thick as five posts, but in itself that should be good reason to get rid of him.
The New York Times (hardly 'right wing') has done a series of articles on this: this is typical:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/29/opinion/jeremy-corbyn-anti-semite.html?module=inline
Housing became unaffordable for loads of people, as property prices rose by 320% from 1996 to 2007. Outside London, and a few hotspots, they've barely moved since then.
Javid tripped the same lightweight alarm that Burnham did.
That said, Burnham would still be a far better leader than the incumbent, so...
https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-criticised-for-anti-semitic-howard-poster-488998.html
Edit I see @ydoethur got there before me.
Available for the coinage of your choice at Hornchurch Airfield Tesco
Talking about coinage I have vowed not to use cash to pay for almost anything again especially anything that isn't a round figure (ie £5, £10, etc). For example if I buy a salmon sushi set at ITSU for £4.09 it effectively costs me £4.20 as I am very unlikely to use the 10p anywhere and will never use the 1p.
Just thought I'd mention it.