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Maybe 20% is fair, but I'm not convinced. It feels like Labour have basically stepped back from the talks already, if May ever really meant to compromise anyway.
https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1115622044337623040?s=21
Suspect going for a PV later this year avoids a no deal / revoke cliffedge scenario though.....
if Theresa resigns as Con leader and triggers a leadership election when she flies in to the UK on Thursday we could have a new leader/PM in place by end of May.
Would leave July free for a general election.
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1115729603589439489
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
Which makes it all very exciting.
Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.
And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.
And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
3%+ Trump wins at a canter
2.5-3% Trump clear favourite
2-2.5% Evens
1.5-2% Democrats favoruite
1.5% or less Democrats win easily
There is no evidence MPs cannot take decisions, the problem is they all take different ones.
It is no coincidence the rather less charismatic Mondale, Dole, Kerry and Romney all failed to repeat Reagan's feat
For all the qualms some have with a soft or very soft Brexit, the hard core of remainers seemed to believe that any formal leaving would be the end for their hopes, in the medium term at least, while outside the ERG core of leavers most seemed to realise that long extension, and participation in the EP elections, meant Brexit might well be over. One side won, it just hasn't worked itself through yet. Leaving will increasingly find itself in a losing battle in the year to come.
Is it Remaining? Is it Leaving? Yes and No, and also No and Yes. And therein lies the beauty. Everybody utterly befuddled. A country reunited.
Question for you; how many of the previous Mayors won reelection with more than 80% of the vote.
Including half the Cabinet!!!
Or rather, simply blaming Brussels is too lazy.
Probably two thirds of MPs think that voting through the Withdrawal Agreement is the right thing for the country. (The other third is made up of those too thick to understand it properly, and those who wish to overturn the 2016 electoral result.)
But of those two-thirds, some wish to virtue signal that it's not Brexity enough. While others see partisan advantage in voting it down, thinking it is likely to lead to a General Election.
That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
We are not what we were.
Which means I am hoping and praying for a real "Brother Can You Spare A Dime?" affair hitting the States next year.
Would be nice if it was a 'smart' recession impacting only those who voted for Trump in 2016 but I guess that is too much to ask for.
How many points down is Trump in the key swing states that delivered his win last time? It's an awful lot, and there's nothing that's going to rejuvenate his popularity short of a war:
https://shareblue.com/trump-approval-tanks-2016-swing-states/
In Morning Consult's most recent survey, Trump is down in the following swing states: Florida (-24 points), Ohio (-20), Michigan (-19), Wisconsin (-18), and Pennsylvania (-17).
In 2016, Trump won all of those states, which together represent 93 electoral votes. Trump's electoral vote margin of victory was 74 points that year.
Think about what theories they believe in.
Do not forget when the Corn Laws were repealed the minority of free trading Peelites left the Tories and ultimately joined the Liberals leaving the Tory Party in the hands of protectionists.
Remainers might win the Brexit battle as the Peelites won the Corn Laws battle but they will lose the party
I have no clue how many Mayors won more than 80% but I expect it is a high number
Apart from one tiny thing, the bit about a war. Because if a war is what it would take to get him re-elected, and he realizes this, I have no doubt whatsoever that Trump will manage to have one.
Hammond and Gauke and Rudd I doubt
Having said that I would not want to be a Tory candidate with a UKIP, Brexit Party or even English Democrats' or well known Independent candidate also on the ballot paper
The Democrats have long needed someone who is openly and unapologetically religious.
That he manages to do that while being gay is a bonus.
Another Conservative MP, Andrew Bridgen, said the UK’s EU membership had turned the country from a Michelin-starred restaurant to one reliant on microwave meals.
He said: “We used to create these fantastic dishes from scratch and over the years this has been corrupted and we have been deskilled.
“Now we accept our laws pre-packed from Brussels, ready to go in the microwave. We’ve become a chicken ding parliament with chicken ding politicians.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/09/may-faces-growing-tory-unrest-mps-approve-brexit-delay
Very good
https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/1115728381566492678?s=20
Numerous cabinet sources confirmed to the Guardian that a plan had been discussed to bring forward the withdrawal agreement bill, which could be a way to attempt to bypass a meaningful vote in parliament'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/09/may-considers-plan-to-let-mps-to-thrash-out-brexit-deal-if-talks-fail
[Genuinely: have you got the cart before the horse there?]