politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Longstanding Brexiteer, Peter Oborne, says now is not the time
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Longstanding Brexiteer, Peter Oborne, says now is not the time to leave the EU
The prominent right wing commentator and strong Brexiter, Peter Oborne, has published an article raising doubts and some powerfil arguments over whether now is the right time to leave.
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The points about hyperbolic language and the GFA are reasonable ones.
Night all.
Or maybe the majority will shake hands and call it quits, leaving the nutters to fulminate?
That’s where my Brexit head is at the moment.
Petty I know but the ERG have tested my patience.
They had a Brexit that honours the referendum and they shat all over it.
As Gove says No Deal doesn’t honour the referendum we’re in for a long extension or I can’t believe it’s not a/the customs union.
Leavers need to ask themselves why Ken Clarke has done more to deliver Brexit than the ERG.
Con 35%
Lab 29%
UKIP 13%
LD 11%
Others 12%
https://electionsetc.com/2016/05/04/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2015-and-2016/
But he is saved from my wrath by the line "When hedge-fund managers and the Communist Party see eye-to-eye on any question, it’s time to be concerned"
That's what we want - and so I have ruled. (Latin translation of I have ruled is REXI).
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/437770-warren-places-third-in-2020-poll-of-massachusetts
https://twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/1113700476539817984
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1114947507157647361
https://twitter.com/Bocephus7/status/1114953875671351296
They don’t realise when the waves of change come, they take all with them. Andrea Jenkyns won’t be saved in a Tory wipeout because she held off a 95% brexit because it wasn’t pure enough.
Interesting that Chuka's party is nowhere to be seen.
The Heinlein book in which the female protagonist avidly practices incest within her family is "To Sail Beyond The Sunset". The one under discussion is "Job: A Comedy of Justice", in which a man, tormented by being frequently moved between alternate universes, is drawn into Heaven during the Rapture but moves to Hell in order to be with his Odinist wife. Much amusement is drawn from the quirks of each universe and his counterintuitive description of Hell as merely a hypercapitalist society: not so much a torture room, more a place of struggle and competition. Like much of Heinlein's later books, it consist of characters who talk like Heinlein arguing with other characters who talk like Heinlein trying to talk like somebody else and failing. It's readable but it is, and he was, very strange.
Buttigieg on Meet the Press:
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/full-buttigieg-i-m-about-as-different-from-this-president-as-it-gets-1478322243505
'Indirectly we will all be disadvantaged. The biggest and immediate losers, however, will be working-class people from England’s north-east, who are widely said to support Brexit. Some of them currently enjoy relatively well-paid and secure jobs thanks to foreign investment. A lot of those jobs will slowly vanish
I can’t help noticing that those most vocal in advocating Brexit are two opposing camps. On the one hand traders in financial assets – in particular hedge-fund managers – relish the speculative opportunities created by Brexit volatility. The city state of Singapore is held up as one economic model. The United States is another. I cannot see that there is any popular desire for us to follow the business and employment cultures of such countries.
On the other side we have the far Left, which wants out of the European Union for the exact opposite reason. The Left sees the EU as a capitalist conspiracy because of the protections it offers for private property and the restraints against centralised economic power, in particular state aid. A very substantial faction around Jeremy Corbyn, including former members of the Communist Party, is looking forward to British departure from the EU because they rightly see that the EU prevents the imposition of socialism.
When hedge-fund managers and the Communist Party see eye-to-eye on any question, it’s time to be concerned.
If Brexiteers are clear-eyed about the economic consequences of Brexit, a further question arises. Do they really think that the economic disruption that lies ahead – along with the serious threat to our own union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – is worth it?'
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/
So from the Remainer side we could take "Remaining In" and from the Leaver side we could take "the European Union". Can't say fairer than that.
A fundamental difficulty in Mrs May's approach is that she's so apparently secretive about it. It's difficult for her most loyal supporters to argue the case for her new plan when they don't know what it is. All my less political friends have pretty much given up trying to follow it, and are just waiting to see what happens.
The other possibility is that she doesn't know either, and is just working from day to day, hoping something will turn up.
Wow.
I don't see such a simple excuse in Oborne's argument. So for that reason I do not think it will ease the way for large numbers of Leavers to follow him in changing their mind.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/07/jeremy-corbyn-unfit-pm-says-jewish-labour-movement-passes-no/
Yet still there are those that claim to see nothing
Regarding the discussion about movies with dubious premises, may I submit "The Breakfast Club", in which a beautiful proto-Goth (it was the 80's, they were American, one makes allowances) is forced thru peer pressure to dress like a normal person in order to be accepted by the local jock. As opposed to kicking him in the nuts and telling them to fuck off, the bastards. Ally Sheedy. It was that, then "War Games", then a string of forgettable stuff. Oh, no ironic reappraisal, no Tarantino cameo, just a guest spot on "X-Men: Apocalypse" gawdelpus.
Fifteen years later, they pulled off the same stupidity with "The Faculty". Seriously! This was a thing in American movies. Grrrr!
And don't get me started on "Pretty in Pink". Nice poor girl ignores her poor best friend in favour of first one, then the other local rich kid whilst the poor best friend is left alone. Seriously, was it rewritten after previews? The ending doesn't match the rest of the film! Besides, Ducky should have gotten off with Annie Potts, then they could have gone to New York and temp'd for the Ghostbusters. I would have watched the shit out of that film. But oh no, she had to go with James Fucking Spader: hello, I have floppy hair and Daddy bought me a Beemer. Well he's old and fat and bald now, so fuck him. Aaargh!
Pause.
Anyhoo, back with the betting. Brexit, huh? What's that about, eh?
(I think I got away with it: nobody noticed, what a relief...
Buttigieg for all the hype is Mayor of a city that has had a Democratic Mayor since 1972, I fail to see how that shows how he beats Trump in the rustbelt swing states
Yet the real world hasn't obliged.
If we leave the EU and single market and Customs Union without a transition deal or free trade agreement then both the City and even more manufacturing in the UK will suffer significant damage to its growth prospects if not fall into outright recession.
Meanwhile my pensions and investments have grown appreciably in value as has the value of my house.
But that's real world isn't it.
Rather than hypothetical bollox or the predictions of certain year long recession which Remainers pedaled before the Refererendum.
And any such level of growth in the UK would likely have seen an inflationary bubble, balance of payments crisis and significant interest rate rises.
Meanwhile we have managed to see some economic rebalancing in the UK and that is far more important than a little more debt fueled consumption or rising house prices led growth.
"People often ask me what the hell's happening with Brexit luv? And I tell them the truth is I don't have the first ******* idea"
[the unreleased "Santa Brexit" episode of the "Mr Men" series. Followed by "Extreme Measures" with Trevor Eve, Friday at 9, BBC1]
May has all the instincts of a strong leader, but combined with no majority, poor judgement and chronic indecisiveness it’s not her.
Britain might just have their Trump very soon.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/price-of-brexit-66-billion-recession-2019-4-1028090841
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/04/07/britain-have-toughest-internet-laws-world-government-backs-duty/
But the awkward question that Leavers have no answer for is what is Brexit improving? Because it certainly isn’t helping build a united country, civic structures or improve the nation’s standing.
When the thing is actually decided, there are going to be howls of disappointment (quite possibly from everyone, as is May's forte) and we could see some quite dramatic poll swings and a hit on Tory ratings for the elections.
What does Cameron have as a legacy? Apart from the obvious. The only potentially interesting thing about his book would be his inside track on making the coalition work.
If we ever do leave then, whatever form that takes, companies, institutions and citizens will adapt to the new reality with varying degrees of speed but the inherent advantages and problems that Britain possess will still be there. From a Leaver's perspective, I would say that we would then be in a position respectively to maximise and tackle those on a national level which is, in my view the best and most democratic way of doing so (though I recognise that other regard multilateralism as the best way).
In short, Leavers take the long view. The long view of remaining, especially after trying unsuccessfully to leave does not seem rosy to me, either internally (given the bitterness it will cause among frustrated leavers) nor externally (our national standing will be much more damaged both within and without the EU if we back down now).