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They need to sock it to Corbyn and do the right thing for the country?malcolmg said:
Methinks you have that the wrong way round.steve_garner said:Today's the day for Labour Moderates to do the right thing for the country and sock it to Corbyn simultaneously by voting for the deal.
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That is still a sovereign decision we have made.Charles said:
But if we are not willing to leave with the backstop and the backstop is the only way to leave then our sovereignty is diminishedAlistair said:
No, we are acknowledging we don't like leaving with the backstop in place.Charles said:
Not if we revoke - we are acknowledging that we need the backstop to leaveTheScreamingEagles said:
Of course we can Leave.Charles said:Fundamentally nothing has changed in months
Once Ireland and the EU insisted on the backstop then the path was set
Either that is acceptable to the UK parliament or it isn’t
If it isn’t then it’s no deal or revoke
But if we revoke then we are acknowledging we can never leave without the agreement of Ireland and hence are not sovereign
The difference is that Vote Leave said we could leave cost free without any disruption, ‘we hold all the cards’ etc and that’s untrue.
PS - The universe loves irony. I mean for how long did we take Ireland’s sovereignty?0 -
Danger of what? If you want to stay in, then better to vote against the WA and hope to revoke next time. If you want to leave at all costs, then yes, vote for a bird in the hand today.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?0 -
Whatever you think about Boris. That he is an utter, utter tosser for example, there is no doubt that he is showbiz. If he is due to speak somewhere, there is a tangible buzz in the air before he arrives and his every word is lapped up with relish. That is worth a lot of votes to those who aren't aware of his tosserness.0
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Didn't he vote for no deal in the indicative votes?AlastairMeeks said:
That is a significant conversion.williamglenn said:0 -
Agreed, that is more likely, but Ken does have the gravitas to pull a team of "all the talents", and I think the SNP would have little problem with him compared to most Tories, and plenty of Labour MPs compliment him on his integrity.DecrepitJohnL said:
You can't have a GNU without at least one of Labour and the SNP which means their leaders will have a veto on the prime minister, much as Labour refused to work under Chamberlain during the war. I'd suggest that any interim prime minister would head a wholly Conservative government, with confidence and supply from the DUP, precisely as now, and not a GNU.TheScreamingEagles said:
My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.Nigel_Foremain said:So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
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So who hates the Uk participating in the EU elections more - the EU or the govt ?Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?0 -
Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs0 -
I agree the SNP have come out of this well in terms of credibility and respect for their politicians.malcolmg said:
For sure the only grown up politicians in Scotland. The opposition is appalling. I do despair at times of ever seeing independence, unbelievable the crap some people will take and say thanks, but one can hope.FF43 said:
We don't often agree, Malcolm... By the way Nicola is having a good Brexit. I don't think it's going to lead to independence, but it it is cementing the SNP as the only serious political party in Scotland. They are going to go on and on, Fianna Fail style. Not great for governance in Scotland sadly.malcolmg said:
Dear God, another useless loser waste of space.williamglenn said:
PS: Nicola needs to up her game on Indyref2 or else.
But Brexit has probably killed off much chance of Indy - all opponents will have to do is remind people of the Brexit fiasco. If we escape from all this, Scots aren't going to want to go through this themselves. If it goes ahead and does damage, the focus will be on getting the UK back into the EU and again Scots wont want to compound the damage. In the unlikely third scenario where Brexit proceeds and doesn't do damage, the SNP lose the lever of damage having been imposed on Scotland.0 -
'Hope to revoke'. Well, quite.DecrepitJohnL said:
Danger of what? If you want to stay in, then better to vote against the WA and hope to revoke next time. If you want to leave at all costs, then yes, vote for a bird in the hand today.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?0 -
Oh yeah, that's all fine, I meant the timescales. As in, how plausible is it that Cable announces he'll stand down in May but remains in post until conference.stodge said:
The "process" is simple - any MP can stand and there are a series of hustings. I attended the London Hustings for both Clegg/Huhne and Farron/Lamb. These are open to all Party members and basically each candidate talks and takes questions.Endillion said:
I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
It's OMOV in our party (no silly colleges). The election will be binary choice if two candidates or STV if three or more.0 -
What time is the MV vote? Should it happen...0
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I heard this live - the most sensible and coherent Brexiteer interview for quite some time.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs0 -
Also, isn't it going to be open to non-MPs?Endillion said:
Oh yeah, that's all fine, I meant the timescales. As in, how plausible is it that Cable announces he'll stand down in May but remains in post until conference.stodge said:
The "process" is simple - any MP can stand and there are a series of hustings. I attended the London Hustings for both Clegg/Huhne and Farron/Lamb. These are open to all Party members and basically each candidate talks and takes questions.Endillion said:
I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
It's OMOV in our party (no silly colleges). The election will be binary choice if two candidates or STV if three or more.0 -
To be honest, Boris and raab aside all the rest are polling pretty much of muchness.TheScreamingEagles said:Even Tory voters don't think Boris is up to the job of PM.
Jeremy Hunt is PM in waiting.
https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/11115556989183303700 -
Yes, I spent a day with him and we were besieged by people wanting selfies with him. In his more popular days, tbf, when he could still be all things to all people. That's gone, now, and showbiz doesn't translate directly into political support.TOPPING said:Whatever you think about Boris. That he is an utter, utter tosser for example, there is no doubt that he is showbiz. If he is due to speak somewhere, there is a tangible buzz in the air before he arrives and his every word is lapped up with relish. That is worth a lot of votes to those who aren't aware of his tosserness.
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The other thing will be the SNP have given plenty of hostages to fortune in their words used to describe Brexit and their policy which will be thrown back at them.IanB2 said:
I agree the SNP have come out of this well in terms of credibility and respect for their politicians.malcolmg said:
For sure the only grown up politicians in Scotland. The opposition is appalling. I do despair at times of ever seeing independence, unbelievable the crap some people will take and say thanks, but one can hope.FF43 said:
We don't often agree, Malcolm... By the way Nicola is having a good Brexit. I don't think it's going to lead to independence, but it it is cementing the SNP as the only serious political party in Scotland. They are going to go on and on, Fianna Fail style. Not great for governance in Scotland sadly.malcolmg said:
Dear God, another useless loser waste of space.williamglenn said:
PS: Nicola needs to up her game on Indyref2 or else.
But Brexit has probably killed off much chance of Indy - all opponents will have to do is remind people of the Brexit fiasco. If we escape from all this, Scots aren't going to want to go through this themselves. If it goes ahead and does damage, the focus will be on getting the UK back into the EU and again Scots wont want to compound the damage. In the unlikely third scenario where Brexit proceeds and doesn't do damage, the SNP lose the lever of damage having been imposed on Scotland.0 -
I've never heard anything like it from John Humphrys. He didn't challenge King barely once. Mervyn King may have given a reasonable account of himself, but John Humphrys most certainly didn't.TGOHF said:
I heard this live - the most sensible and coherent Brexiteer interview for quite some time.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs0 -
It means IV2 has to identify a majority-supported decision on Monday, and then the government has to (by desire, compulsion or replacement) make parliamentary time available later next week to get the necessary extension application agreed and made.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?0 -
Without the DUP there’s no chance this deal gets through . They’re acting as a human shield for some of the ERG . It also allows more pro EU Tories to come under less pressure to vote for the deal . Labour MPs won’t move across unless they were very sure it would pass with them .
Much closer for May but a 50 majority against seems more likely .0 -
I went straight to the much superior Teardrop Explodes pun with her name but it went sadly unappreciated.isam said:
Astonishingly low number of plays on words based on the Derek & The Dominoes Song wrt Moran. Is it down to the @NickPalmer pun tax?Dura_Ace said:
It's all over for Knuckles Moran.TheScreamingEagles said:
Layla Moran might get taken out by recent revelations.0 -
You stole the wind from your own sail thereRichard_Nabavi said:... it follows, as night follows day, ... unless ...
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He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs
#WrongThenWrongNow0 -
If that is true, surely we will start to hear about lots of one on one meetings with the PM shortly.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737
Thats starting to get close....0 -
No - that got thrown out. I posted a link a few weeks ago when I saw it reported, but can't find it now.rottenborough said:
Also, isn't it going to be open to non-MPs?Endillion said:
Oh yeah, that's all fine, I meant the timescales. As in, how plausible is it that Cable announces he'll stand down in May but remains in post until conference.stodge said:
The "process" is simple - any MP can stand and there are a series of hustings. I attended the London Hustings for both Clegg/Huhne and Farron/Lamb. These are open to all Party members and basically each candidate talks and takes questions.Endillion said:
I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
It's OMOV in our party (no silly colleges). The election will be binary choice if two candidates or STV if three or more.0 -
1430 with a result around 1445, I believerottenborough said:What time is the MV vote? Should it happen...
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And that decision has to be specific and realistic, and Labour have to stop playing cynical games, and the EU have to accept whatever it is, unanimously, and the government has to be able and willing to implement it.IanB2 said:
It means IV2 has to identify a majority-supported decision on Monday, and then the government has to (by desire, compulsion or replacement) make parliamentary time available later next week to get the necessary extension application agreed and made.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
What is the cumulative probability of that? 5%?0 -
If Theresa managed to pull this off, it would be one of the great political escape acts for many years, despite her impending resignation.FrancisUrquhart said:
If that is true, surely we will start to hear about lots of one on one meetings with the PM shortly.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737
Thats starting to get close....0 -
Correction for stodge - AV not STVEndillion said:
Oh yeah, that's all fine, I meant the timescales. As in, how plausible is it that Cable announces he'll stand down in May but remains in post until conference.stodge said:
The "process" is simple - any MP can stand and there are a series of hustings. I attended the London Hustings for both Clegg/Huhne and Farron/Lamb. These are open to all Party members and basically each candidate talks and takes questions.Endillion said:
I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
It's OMOV in our party (no silly colleges). The election will be binary choice if two candidates or STV if three or more.
It would be credible in a normal quiet political summer.0 -
Neither the Govt, Labour nor the EU want a hard brexit in 2 weeks - so can't see how there will be one under any circumstances.Richard_Nabavi said:
And that decision has to be specific and realistic., and Labour have to stop playing cynical games, and the EU have to accept whatever it is, unanimously, and the government has to be able and willing to implement it.IanB2 said:
It means IV2 has to identify a majority-supported decision on Monday, and then the government has to (by desire, compulsion or replacement) make parliamentary time available later next week to get the necessary extension application agreed and made.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
What is the cumulative probability of that? 5%?
Long extension into the long grass.0 -
Any reason why no amendments? Seems like they are allowed on practically anything and at least one would have been helpful.Big_G_NorthWales said:Speaker not allowing amendments
Cox on his feet0 -
Jesus what if they don’t win?!GIN1138 said:
Walk out in disgust? Call for a rerun? Revoke the election?
On past form the anti democrats simply don’t accept the public/party members decision as more worthy than their high opinion of themselves0 -
Lmao . This has been put out to get more Labour and ERG on board .FrancisUrquhart said:
If that is true, surely we will start to hear about lots of one on one meetings with the PM shortly.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737
Thats starting to get close....0 -
What you tend to get is a regionalisation. For example, the London parties might well nominate Ed Davey or Tom Brake while Wear Hobhouse might get support from the north, Jo Swinson from Scotland and Layla Moran from the central southern England branches.Commentator said:
Nominations by local parties, followed by hustings, then an all-member ballot: https://www.libdems.org.uk/constitutionEndillion said:I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.0 -
Quel surprise, we would not want anyone with an ounce of sense or principles involved, would we.DecrepitJohnL said:
You can't have a GNU without at least one of Labour and the SNP which means their leaders will have a veto on the prime minister, much as Labour refused to work under Chamberlain during the war. I'd suggest that any interim prime minister would head a wholly Conservative government, with confidence and supply from the DUP, precisely as now, and not a GNU.TheScreamingEagles said:
My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.Nigel_Foremain said:So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
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If you remove the rather surprising result for TMay, it otherwise looks a bit like the indicative vote. More dislikes than likes .It does look like I am not the only Tory voter that thinks Dominic Raab is a lightweight and Boris Johnson is a tosserFrancisUrquhart said:
To be honest, Boris and raab aside all the rest are polling pretty much of muchness.TheScreamingEagles said:Even Tory voters don't think Boris is up to the job of PM.
Jeremy Hunt is PM in waiting.
https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/11115556989183303700 -
He seemed to take the view no amendments was the easy answerkle4 said:
Any reason why no amendments? Seems like they are allowed on practically anything and at least one would have been helpful.Big_G_NorthWales said:Speaker not allowing amendments
Cox on his feet0 -
They didn't seem to be very relevant to the motion, and the first two have been rejected before anyway.kle4 said:
Any reason why no amendments? Seems like they are allowed on practically anything and at least one would have been helpful.Big_G_NorthWales said:Speaker not allowing amendments
Cox on his feet0 -
Tories on here panicking big time, Carlotta rallying the troopsNorthofStoke said:Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
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Thanks. Annoying, I will probably be out around then.IanB2 said:
1430 with a result around 1445, I believerottenborough said:What time is the MV vote? Should it happen...
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No, much higher. Remember both most MPs and the EU wants it to succeed. We were granted this short extension specifically to focus on identifying a new way forward, and to push May into going.Richard_Nabavi said:
And that decision has to be specific and realistic., and Labour have to stop playing cynical games, and the EU have to accept whatever it is, unanimously, and the government has to be able and willing to implement it.IanB2 said:
It means IV2 has to identify a majority-supported decision on Monday, and then the government has to (by desire, compulsion or replacement) make parliamentary time available later next week to get the necessary extension application agreed and made.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
What is the cumulative probability of that? 5%?
The decision doesn't have to have all its details ticked off to get the extension, but does need to appear realistic as you say. Already the options are narrowing to WA+CU, WA+CU+PV, or just possibly WA+PV.
I don't see much chance the EU wont give us time to develop any of these.
The problem is what political chaos at home ensues when the majority of the Tory Party realises its impotence, yet is still nominally in power.
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Typically reserved and non inflammatory front page from George Osborne
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/11115883122072903680 -
Another bizarre obsession of yours. The man has a grandiose, some might even say pompous, manner of delivery. Why does that agitate you so much?_Anazina_ said:One of the worst things about these endless meaningful votes if having to listen to the ludicrous Cox shout his way through the debate, a relic of the 1950s.
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"After much sucking up to the swivel-eyed nutters in my constituency party association...."Alistair said:
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Mr. Eagles, it also means they're now CUTIG. When they have internal disagreement they'll be split into Cutie and Tigger factions
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Win win for Con party long term malcmalcolmg said:
Tories on here panicking big time, Carlotta rallying the troopsNorthofStoke said:Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
Useless May offski either way
Chance of a clean Brexit is up
If vote wins then some sort of Brexit nailed down.
Precedent set that leaving unions is unpleasant - ooops for Nicla..
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It is a point I have been making over and over, above and below the line.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
Too many in the UK are hoping that the EU will come to our rescue......oh the irony!0 -
Defeat by 90ish is my guess for today. Not sure how they'll play that vs the votes on Monday.0
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On paper, government heading for defeat of 70-80, with approx. 40 Cons against, balanced surprisingly evenly Leave/Remain.
Rumours of a defeat of 20 must surely be government encouragement to Labour rebels, even though (as the above numbers indicate) a defeat of 20 would have to be AFTER Labour rebels are counted and not before.0 -
Well, exactly. Simply on the narrow question of implementing what MPs actually agree on, even assuming that they agree on anything, there won't be a government capable of implementing it. The process is completely shot full of holes.IanB2 said:
...
The problem is what political chaos at home ensues when the majority of the Tory Party realises its impotence, yet is still nominally in power.0 -
Bit racist that from George ? The educated white saviour against the angry ignorant black man.TheScreamingEagles said:Typically reserved and non inflammatory front page from George Osborne
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/11115883122072903680 -
Eh? Hobhouse is MP for Bath. Are you just thinking her name sounds northern?stodge said:
What you tend to get is a regionalisation. For example, the London parties might well nominate Ed Davey or Tom Brake while Wear Hobhouse might get support from the north, Jo Swinson from Scotland and Layla Moran from the central southern England branches.Commentator said:
Nominations by local parties, followed by hustings, then an all-member ballot: https://www.libdems.org.uk/constitutionEndillion said:I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
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Brexit is a lose lose for all of the UK, but particularly for the Tories, the ex-party of the economy and sensible government.TGOHF said:
Win win for Con party long term malcmalcolmg said:
Tories on here panicking big time, Carlotta rallying the troopsNorthofStoke said:Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
Useless May offski either way
Chance of a clean Brexit is up
If vote wins then some sort of Brexit nailed down.
Precedent set that leaving unions is unpleasant - ooops for Nicla..0 -
Voting for that pigs breakfast is the opposite of what you propose.Nemtynakht said:
They need to sock it to Corbyn and do the right thing for the country?malcolmg said:
Methinks you have that the wrong way round.steve_garner said:Today's the day for Labour Moderates to do the right thing for the country and sock it to Corbyn simultaneously by voting for the deal.
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I'll be in the middle of a political lunch at a local Italian. The four of us meet once a quarter to discuss political developments. I use arguments and insights I've rehearsed or learned on here. Today will be something special. We'll glance at our smartphones at 2:45. Don't think there will be any surprise except for what the PM says immediately afterwards.rottenborough said:
Thanks. Annoying, I will probably be out around then.IanB2 said:
1430 with a result around 1445, I believerottenborough said:What time is the MV vote? Should it happen...
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The question however at this stage is simply whether an extension would be granted, and I think the probability in that circumstance is up over 75%.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, exactly. Simply on the narrow question of implementing what MPs actually agree on, even assuming that they agree on anything, there won't be a government capable of implementing it. The process is completely shot full of holes.IanB2 said:
...
The problem is what political chaos at home ensues when the majority of the Tory Party realises its impotence, yet is still nominally in power.0 -
Theresa May stole his dog and refused to give it back unless he voted for the WA?Nigel_Foremain said:
"After much sucking up to the swivel-eyed nutters in my constituency party association...."Alistair said:
#PetTheftAwarenessWeek?
https://twitter.com/RossThomson_MP0 -
That was the old wet establishment May's Remain Tories Nigel. They are finished forever.Nigel_Foremain said:
Brexit is a lose lose for all of the UK, but particularly for the Tories, the ex-party of the economy and sensible government.TGOHF said:
Win win for Con party long term malcmalcolmg said:
Tories on here panicking big time, Carlotta rallying the troopsNorthofStoke said:Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
Useless May offski either way
Chance of a clean Brexit is up
If vote wins then some sort of Brexit nailed down.
Precedent set that leaving unions is unpleasant - ooops for Nicla..0 -
Everyone in the House including IDS are very confident they will make such an offer - I think they are right but there is a lack of awareness that there is a not insignificant risk somebody will say no (or agree but with absolutely humiliating conditions where the UK will be a curtailed member, not allowed to exercise its membership properly)Cyclefree said:
It is a point I have been making over and over, anove and below the line.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
Too many in the UK are hoping that the EU will come to our rescue......oh the irony!0 -
I agree leaving a real union is unpleasant , not so much stopping being a colonyTGOHF said:
Win win for Con party long term malcmalcolmg said:
Tories on here panicking big time, Carlotta rallying the troopsNorthofStoke said:Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
Useless May offski either way
Chance of a clean Brexit is up
If vote wins then some sort of Brexit nailed down.
Precedent set that leaving unions is unpleasant - ooops for Nicla..0 -
You can't blame him for rubbing salt into Theresa May's incompetence. Her approach to him was the first sign of her total inability to build alliances with people she doesn't like, right at the time when it was most neededTheScreamingEagles said:Typically reserved and non inflammatory front page from George Osborne
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/11115883122072903680 -
My guess is that they'll look at the number of yes votes, which could be up there with the better options in IV1, and then decide to throw the WA into IV2. Effectively its a route to MV4 but (probably) under AV.kle4 said:Defeat by 90ish is my guess for today. Not sure how they'll play that vs the votes on Monday.
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I don't see any risk free options?kingbongo said:
Everyone in the House including IDS are very confident they will make such an offer - I think they are right but there is a lack of awareness that there is a not insignificant risk somebody will say no (or agree but with absolutely humiliating conditions where the UK will be a curtailed member, not allowed to exercise its membership properly)Cyclefree said:
It is a point I have been making over and over, anove and below the line.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
Too many in the UK are hoping that the EU will come to our rescue......oh the irony!0 -
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Buzzfeed move Damian Collins and Simon Clarke to Support0
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No, some talked up overoptimistic opinions are getting close. It means nothing at all.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737
Thats starting to get close....0 -
Ah yes, replaced by Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg, those fine old-Etonian anti-establishment figures. Guffaw!TGOHF said:
That was the old wet establishment May's Remain Tories Nigel. They are finished forever.Nigel_Foremain said:
Brexit is a lose lose for all of the UK, but particularly for the Tories, the ex-party of the economy and sensible government.TGOHF said:
Win win for Con party long term malcmalcolmg said:
Tories on here panicking big time, Carlotta rallying the troopsNorthofStoke said:Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
Useless May offski either way
Chance of a clean Brexit is up
If vote wins then some sort of Brexit nailed down.
Precedent set that leaving unions is unpleasant - ooops for Nicla..
Just like with the Labour Party, the grown ups will eventually have to come back to clear up the play room.0 -
If that is correct that means about 20 remainer Tory MP voting against the WA which if I recall correctly is at least double the figure from MV2. I think you can draw your own conclusions as to why that might be.TheWhiteRabbit said:On paper, government heading for defeat of 70-80, with approx. 40 Cons against, balanced surprisingly evenly Leave/Remain.
Rumours of a defeat of 20 must surely be government encouragement to Labour rebels, even though (as the above numbers indicate) a defeat of 20 would have to be AFTER Labour rebels are counted and not before.0 -
Such excessive talk-up carries risks the other way in expectation management, ofcourse ; which is why I think it must be at least a bit significantly closer than before, it not that much.eristdoof said:
No, some talked up overoptimistic opinions are getting close. It means nothing at all.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737
Thats starting to get close....0 -
Neither Boris nor JRM will be anywhere near being leader.Nigel_Foremain said:
Ah yes, replaced by Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg, those fine old-Etonian anti-establishment figures. Guffaw!TGOHF said:
That was the old wet establishment May's Remain Tories Nigel. They are finished forever.Nigel_Foremain said:
Brexit is a lose lose for all of the UK, but particularly for the Tories, the ex-party of the economy and sensible government.TGOHF said:
Win win for Con party long term malcmalcolmg said:
Tories on here panicking big time, Carlotta rallying the troopsNorthofStoke said:Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
Useless May offski either way
Chance of a clean Brexit is up
If vote wins then some sort of Brexit nailed down.
Precedent set that leaving unions is unpleasant - ooops for Nicla..
Just like with the Labour Party, the grown ups will eventually have to come back to clear up the play room.
0 -
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Talking it up may help switch those who don't like being on the losing side.WhisperingOracle said:
Such excessive talk-up carries risks the other way in expectation management, ofcourse - which is why I think it must be at least a bit significantly closer than before, it not that much closer.eristdoof said:
No, some talked up overoptimistic opinions are getting close. It means nothing at all.Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737
Thats starting to get close....0 -
But would or should the government agree to any of them? When only 33 Tory MPs out of over 300 voted for the terrible Customs Union idea? And when May goes and the ~280 Tory MPs opposed to a terrible Customs Union choose two candidates opposed to it . . . and the members choose a new PM opposed to it . . . what then?IanB2 said:
No, much higher. Remember both most MPs and the EU wants it to succeed. We were granted this short extension specifically to focus on identifying a new way forward, and to push May into going.Richard_Nabavi said:
And that decision has to be specific and realistic., and Labour have to stop playing cynical games, and the EU have to accept whatever it is, unanimously, and the government has to be able and willing to implement it.IanB2 said:
It means IV2 has to identify a majority-supported decision on Monday, and then the government has to (by desire, compulsion or replacement) make parliamentary time available later next week to get the necessary extension application agreed and made.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
What is the cumulative probability of that? 5%?
The decision doesn't have to have all its details ticked off to get the extension, but does need to appear realistic as you say. Already the options are narrowing to WA+CU, WA+CU+PV, or just possibly WA+PV.
I don't see much chance the EU wont give us time to develop any of these.
The problem is what political chaos at home ensues when the majority of the Tory Party realises its impotence, yet is still nominally in power.0 -
The Hahn/Nield round-robin letter came from the Cambridge hotbed of radical economic naïvity. It is true that Mervyn did sign it when he was at Birmingham. He became much wiser since. I did not sign it, and many other academic economists I know also refused to sign it.TheScreamingEagles said:
He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs
#WrongThenWrongNow
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I'm not sure if it's technically practical to attach conditions to make the UK a curtailed member, but since everybody's still pretending this is just a temporary state of affairs until the details are sorted out rather than an eternal state of Gimp Remain I can't see anyone would be particularly bothered if they had restricted voting rights or whatever.kingbongo said:
Everyone in the House including IDS are very confident they will make such an offer - I think they are right but there is a lack of awareness that there is a not insignificant risk somebody will say no (or agree but with absolutely humiliating conditions where the UK will be a curtailed member, not allowed to exercise its membership properly)0 -
I know this should appeal to a few PBers.
Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-160457730 -
I don’t think legally curtailing the UK’s rights as a member would work. But there could certainly be some humiliating conditions.kingbongo said:
Everyone in the House including IDS are very confident they will make such an offer - I think they are right but there is a lack of awareness that there is a not insignificant risk somebody will say no (or agree but with absolutely humiliating conditions where the UK will be a curtailed member, not allowed to exercise its membership properly)Cyclefree said:
It is a point I have been making over and over, anove and below the line.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
Too many in the UK are hoping that the EU will come to our rescue......oh the irony!
There is IMO an appreciable risk that they will say that there is no clear political strategy or plan justifying an extension (if the vote is lost today and Monday’s votes bring no clarity) and, therefore, there will be no extension but Britain is free to revoke and remain a member as before. That has the advantage from their perspective that it puts the blame for a No Deal exit very firmly on Britain. It also puts pressure on those MPs trying to cobble together a deal to get a move on.
They may well also make clear that any future talks on anything are conditional on the full £39 billion being paid etc ie don’t assume that just because you’ve left with No Deal you walk away from your obligations.0 -
Well hopefully it should keep the plebs from ever thinking about going anywhere decent.TheScreamingEagles said:I know this should appeal to a few PBers.
Nando's is giving away free food in Manchester from TODAY, with giant loyalty cards across the UK
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/nandos-free-food-manchester-printworks-160457730 -
Such silly nonsense you spout, As I said the other day, Scots have been massively overrepresented in the British state and were responsible for leading colonialism in the hay day of Empire. The number of politicians and generals who either were Scottish or had Scottish lineage is too big to list; you could say that the Scots have colonised Britain! Nationalists the world over get off on their own lies and fake grievances, but few can out-do the mendacity of the Scottish variety.malcolmg said:
I agree leaving a real union is unpleasant , not so much stopping being a colonyTGOHF said:
Win win for Con party long term malcmalcolmg said:
Tories on here panicking big time, Carlotta rallying the troopsNorthofStoke said:Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
Useless May offski either way
Chance of a clean Brexit is up
If vote wins then some sort of Brexit nailed down.
Precedent set that leaving unions is unpleasant - ooops for Nicla..0 -
He was so wise he didn’t even spot the credit crisis of 2007.geoffw said:
The Hahn/Nield round-robin letter came from the Cambridge hotbed of radical economic naïvity. It is true that Mervyn did sign it when he was at Birmingham. He became much wiser since. I did not sign it, and many other academic economists I know also refused to sign it.TheScreamingEagles said:
He should get 363 fellow economists to write a letter to The Times saying that.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs
#WrongThenWrongNow0 -
So - are you complaining that he didn't interrupt and prevent Mr King from putting forward his answers to the questions - like most of the BBC reporters fail to do when interviewing Remainers.WhisperingOracle said:
I've never heard anything like it from John Humphrys. He didn't challenge King barely once. Mervyn King may have given a reasonable account of himself, but John Humphrys most certainly didn't.TGOHF said:
I heard this live - the most sensible and coherent Brexiteer interview for quite some time.geoffw said:Mervyn King's interview on Today this morning was excellent. He favours leaving without a deal but with an agreement to hold the status quo for 6 months to manage the inevitable disruption.
(from 2hrs:37mins)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0003jvs0 -
Sorry that's not the implication - as far as I'm aware there are no new rebels (we shall see...)Norm said:
If that is correct that means about 20 remainer Tory MP voting against the WA which if I recall correctly is at least double the figure from MV2. I think you can draw your own conclusions as to why that might be.TheWhiteRabbit said:On paper, government heading for defeat of 70-80, with approx. 40 Cons against, balanced surprisingly evenly Leave/Remain.
Rumours of a defeat of 20 must surely be government encouragement to Labour rebels, even though (as the above numbers indicate) a defeat of 20 would have to be AFTER Labour rebels are counted and not before.
I just wanted to challenge this idea that the Con rebels are ERGers. As Leavers decide to back the deal, the remaining rebels are, well, more and more Remainers0 -
Everything else has been designed for the Tory Party, if the Tory Party needs votes from other parties to pass its stuff then they could and should suck it up and compromise. But if they don't want to do that then a new election is also an option for them.Philip_Thompson said:
But would or should the government agree to any of them? When only 33 Tory MPs out of over 300 voted for the terrible Customs Union idea? And when May goes and the ~280 Tory MPs opposed to a terrible Customs Union choose two candidates opposed to it . . . and the members choose a new PM opposed to it . . . what then?IanB2 said:
No, much higher. Remember both most MPs and the EU wants it to succeed. We were granted this short extension specifically to focus on identifying a new way forward, and to push May into going.Richard_Nabavi said:
And that decision has to be specific and realistic., and Labour have to stop playing cynical games, and the EU have to accept whatever it is, unanimously, and the government has to be able and willing to implement it.IanB2 said:
It means IV2 has to identify a majority-supported decision on Monday, and then the government has to (by desire, compulsion or replacement) make parliamentary time available later next week to get the necessary extension application agreed and made.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
What is the cumulative probability of that? 5%?
The decision doesn't have to have all its details ticked off to get the extension, but does need to appear realistic as you say. Already the options are narrowing to WA+CU, WA+CU+PV, or just possibly WA+PV.
I don't see much chance the EU wont give us time to develop any of these.
The problem is what political chaos at home ensues when the majority of the Tory Party realises its impotence, yet is still nominally in power.0 -
Yes, but listening to IDS this morning it seems like if the WA does miraculously pass today we then have less than eight weeks of failing to get the ERG to vote for the legal detail of what they vote for today, and then having a choice between no deal, or revoking without Euro elections and smashing up the legal order of the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
So that could end up being worse.0 -
They have already made that clear, except that they didn't name a specific figure. Presumably that part of the estimated £39bn which relates to payments during the transition would apply only if there were a similar transition period. I'm not sure how any transition could legally work if we were applying from the outside.Cyclefree said:They may well also make clear that any future talks on anything are conditional on the full £39 billion being paid etc ie don’t assume that just because you’ve left with No Deal you walk away from your obligations.
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