If only he hadn't poured opprobrium on Theresa's deal in the first place and then flounced off in DD's wake. Had he stayed in the government to fight the case - maybe, just maybe, he would have won round enough of the ultras. Too late now surely.
Much of the pain of voting for this deal is going to come from the ridicule he receives:
If only he hadn't poured opprobrium on Theresa's deal in the first place and then flounced off in DD's wake. Had he stayed in the government to fight the case - maybe, just maybe, he would have won round enough of the ultras. Too late now surely.
Much of the pain of voting for this deal is going to come from the ridicule he receives:
When the WA fails today what is TMs plan B : resign?, revoke?, referendum? GE?, No Deal Exit? She must have thought through what her next step is, surely ?
The Nandy amendment looks like it could deliver a fair few Labour votes if the government accepts it. I do think it is rather sweet that any Labour MP would trust the government to deliver on it in any meaningful way, though.
Can they accept an amendment that the speaker didn't select?
They could I think put a new motion to the House.
I think though that the government intends to cut the majority to -80 today and then engage with (they hope) 25 or so more Lab switchers.
I thought they had to get the WA approved today at the latest?
To get the May 22 extension as currently agreed, yes.
But does anyone really think this will pass today?
This is only an idicative vote, isn't it? MPs could pass the vote to get the extension and then throw out the WA when it comes to a meaningful vote.
If only he hadn't poured opprobrium on Theresa's deal in the first place and then flounced off in DD's wake. Had he stayed in the government to fight the case - maybe, just maybe, he would have won round enough of the ultras. Too late now surely.
Much of the pain of voting for this deal is going to come from the ridicule he receives:
Remainers seem obsessed with Boris - he simply isn't going to be leader - he's finished and not worth the attention some place on him.
He's second favourite in the betting. I've been laying him bigtime so I agree with you, but others clearly disagree.
Boris has only one thing going for him in a leadership contest - high recognition.
A leadership contest would a) reduce the unknown factor of others and b) expose Boris's weaknesses.
He can't win a "contest". Why JRM etc back him is a mystery.
You can say what you want about Gove but he trashed his standing in the party by firstly backing Leave on principle, and by stabbing Boris in the back. We have to assume if Boris stands that his reasons will be passed on to the other contenders to take him down again.
On topic I still think Javid is in with a very good chance. Gove has the teachers against him, and the doctors don’t like Hunt. There are significant negatives. Javid is a clean skin with a great backstory.
If only he hadn't poured opprobrium on Theresa's deal in the first place and then flounced off in DD's wake. Had he stayed in the government to fight the case - maybe, just maybe, he would have won round enough of the ultras. Too late now surely.
Much of the pain of voting for this deal is going to come from the ridicule he receives:
Remainers seem obsessed with Boris - he simply isn't going to be leader - he's finished and not worth the attention some place on him.
He's second favourite in the betting. I've been laying him bigtime so I agree with you, but others clearly disagree.
Boris has only one thing going for him in a leadership contest - high recognition.
A leadership contest would a) reduce the unknown factor of others and b) expose Boris's weaknesses.
He can't win a "contest". Why JRM etc back him is a mystery.
You can say what you want about Gove but he trashed his standing in the party by firstly backing Leave on principle, and by stabbing Boris in the back. We have to assume if Boris stands that his reasons will be passed on to the other contenders to take him down again. .
Ditching Boris looks like the correct move by Gove in the long run.
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
On the amendments, looking at the Order paper, there were three tabled. One from the SNP and PC seeking to make any deal conditional on agreement from Scotland and Wales, one from Ken Clarke and some Labour MPs calling on the government to bring forward legislation to revoke, and the Labour rebel one about the future process for the PD.
All of these raise important points and I expect the Speaker realised he had the choice between taking them all or taking none and keeping things simple.
One of the worst things about these endless meaningful votes if having to listen to the ludicrous Cox shout his way through the debate, a relic of the 1950s.
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
We only need to approve the WA to get to 22 May. Of course to get past the 22 May we would still need the full WA+PD.
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
Apparently the EU will accept it although again apparently it doesn't satisfy our Withdrawal Act.
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
We only need to approve the WA to get to 22 May. Of course to get past the 22 May we would still need the full WA+PD.
Noting it isn't being formally approved but approved "in principle". Which appears to be good enough under International Law to secure the 22 May extension.
Is this a good betting tip or am I making a bad mistake? I just took the Betfair exchange "lay" at short odds on Vince Cable ceasing to be leader of the Lib Dems in April to June 2019. It seems to me to be good value, but it's dependent on Betfair interpretation of market rules. Although Cable has said he will resign at some point soon, the terms of the market require him to "officially cease to be leader". Under the LDs' constitution an election will take place when he gives notice of intention to resign "on election of a new leader". So, he won't cease to be leader officially until a new one's elected, he's not even fired the starting gun on the process, and I'd think that a full membership ballot's unlikely to happen within 3 months given he will want to pass the critical weeks of the Brexit process.
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
Approve the WDA today and we do get the extension
No deal on the 12th April is rocketing if the deal falls
The extension is guaranteed if the HOC passes it today, no other extension is at all certain due to the 27 needing to pass it unanimously and the uncompromising attitude coming out of France and others
They do not want us to take part in their EU elections next month and I am not at all sure the UK wants to be involved
It looks likely that the government will lose today's vote by between 50 and 100 votes. Theresa May surely isn't about to do anything other than seek to bring about a fourth vote, and will be a block to any alternative course of action.
On the amendments, looking at the Order paper, there were three tabled. One from the SNP and PC seeking to make any deal conditional on agreement from Scotland and Wales, one from Ken Clarke and some Labour MPs calling on the government to bring forward legislation to revoke, and the Labour rebel one about the future process for the PD.
All of these raise important points and I expect the Speaker realised he had the choice between taking them all or taking none and keeping things simple.
And anyway those issues will be dealt with in the indicative votes on Monday.
Is this a good betting tip or am I making a bad mistake? I just took the Betfair exchange "lay" at short odds on Vince Cable ceasing to be leader of the Lib Dems in April to June 2019. It seems to me to be good value, but it's dependent on Betfair interpretation of market rules. Although Cable has said he will resign at some point soon, the terms of the market require him to "officially cease to be leader". Under the LDs' constitution an election will take place when he gives notice of intention to resign "on election of a new leader". So, he won't cease to be leader officially until a new one's elected, he's not even fired the starting gun on the process, and I'd think that a full membership ballot's unlikely to happen within 3 months given he will want to pass the critical weeks of the Brexit process.
If there's a coronation then you probably lose.
Layla Moran might get taken out by recent revelations.
Is this a good betting tip or am I making a bad mistake? I just took the Betfair exchange "lay" at short odds on Vince Cable ceasing to be leader of the Lib Dems in April to June 2019. It seems to me to be good value, but it's dependent on Betfair interpretation of market rules. Although Cable has said he will resign at some point soon, the terms of the market require him to "officially cease to be leader". Under the LDs' constitution an election will take place when he gives notice of intention to resign "on election of a new leader". So, he won't cease to be leader officially until a new one's elected, he's not even fired the starting gun on the process, and I'd think that a full membership ballot's unlikely to happen within 3 months given he will want to pass the critical weeks of the Brexit process.
I believe his current intention is to stand down in May after the locals, but as you say this depends on how the Brexcrisis develops. You are right that (if there's a contested election) the LibDem leadership election will take a while. I haven't looked at the terms of the BF bet but going on your description the risks appear to be a) he resigns rather than "resign subject to..", b) a sudden GE looms and actually he decides to go earlier, c) there is only one nominee for leader, d) something pushes the LDs into a very accelerated leadership election (not their way, but you never know)
It looks likely that the government will lose today's vote by between 50 and 100 votes. Theresa May surely isn't about to do anything other than seek to bring about a fourth vote, and will be a block to any alternative course of action.
I don't think that will be possible for her, however, due to multiple factors.
I have a strong feeling now, that if this vote is lost today, she will step down. The move after today is to ask for a long extendtion from the EU, which she has said time and time again she wouldn't do.
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
The aim is to get the WA agreed today so the PD essentially goes by default. Arguably the government is underhand in separating the two and implying they would accept other indicative arrangements, but if you see it as a straight proxy for MV3, it's sort of OK.
The government hates the idea of Euro elections but a long extension is probably there if the UK wants it. We can always ask?
It looks likely that the government will lose today's vote by between 50 and 100 votes. Theresa May surely isn't about to do anything other than seek to bring about a fourth vote, and will be a block to any alternative course of action.
I don't think that will be possible for her, however, due to multiple factors.
Agreed. If the government loses today, initiative passes back to the MPs and IV2.
Cox revealed earlier the government almost decided to let IV2 run today in place of its motion. So falling back to IV2 has to be their next move. Indeed only move, really. They always have the choice of putting the WA into IV2 if it does better today.
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
Approve the WDA today and we do get the extension
No deal on the 12th April is rocketing if the deal falls
The extension is guaranteed if the HOC passes it today, no other extension is at all certain due to the 27 needing to pass it unanimously and the uncompromising attitude coming out of France and others
They do not want us to take part in their EU elections next month and I am not at all sure the UK wants to be involved
The extension to 12th April includes the possibility of a long further extension. The extension to 22nd May excludes that possibility and therefore increases the risk of no deal.
So if the WA is not voted for today we have a No Deal exit in 2 weeks time on 12th April, unless we revoke Article 50 before then or manage to get the WA approved.
If it does get approved we have until May 22 to get all the necessary legislation in place. God knows what happens if that does not happen. May presumably resigns and then we get some other Tory numpty to start the FTA negotiations with the EU.
Since the chances of the WA getting approved are not good, it still looks like No Deal. Or us begging for an extension, assuming Monday’s votes indicate some way forward.
Redwood probably nailing why the WAIB isn't being published - government has worked out it needs to repeal the earlier revocation (subject to exit) of EU powers and reintroduce them for the transition period. Even moderate Brexit Tories wont like that given the likely reaction from their members.
So if the WA is not voted for today we have a No Deal exit in 2 weeks time on 12th April, unless we revoke Article 50 before then or manage to get the WA approved.
If it does get approved we have until May 22 to get all the necessary legislation in place. God knows what happens if that does not happen. May presumably resigns and then we get some other Tory numpty to start the FTA negotiations with the EU.
Since the chances of the WA getting approved are not good, it still looks like No Deal. Or us begging for an extension, assuming Monday’s votes indicate some way forward.
And, in your first para, or we apply for an extension and the EU agrees it. The hope must be that CU and/or PV emerges from IV2 and the EU is happy to then oblige
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
Approve the WDA today and we do get the extension
No deal on the 12th April is rocketing if the deal falls
The extension is guaranteed if the HOC passes it today, no other extension is at all certain due to the 27 needing to pass it unanimously and the uncompromising attitude coming out of France and others
They do not want us to take part in their EU elections next month and I am not at all sure the UK wants to be involved
The extension to 12th April includes the possibility of a long further extension. The extension to 22nd May excludes that possibility and therefore increases the risk of no deal.
It most certainly does not.
On the 12th April we leave with no deal unless the all the 27 EU countries agree, and France strongly indicating they will not, and we have to agree to take part in the EU elections
Furthermore, any extension has to have a majority approved position in the HOC
Can you believe the heads of 27 states jumped through all those hoops to work out a way to give the British time to sort themselves out in such a way that it didn't bollocks up their elections, so what do the British do? Work out a special devious form of procedural trickery to make it possible to bollocks up their elections.
I am so glad I don't pay taxes to support these sordid ratfuckers.
I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
Approve the WDA today and we do get the extension
No deal on the 12th April is rocketing if the deal falls
The extension is guaranteed if the HOC passes it today, no other extension is at all certain due to the 27 needing to pass it unanimously and the uncompromising attitude coming out of France and others
They do not want us to take part in their EU elections next month and I am not at all sure the UK wants to be involved
The extension to 12th April includes the possibility of a long further extension. The extension to 22nd May excludes that possibility and therefore increases the risk of no deal.
It most certainly does not.
On the 12th April we leave with no deal unless the all the 27 EU countries agree, and France strongly indicating they will not, and we have to agree to take part in the EU elections
Furthermore, any extension has to have a majority approved position in the HOC
France is just playing bad cop. The EU will act as one.
Given recent comments they’re likely to move towards a softer Brexit and longer extension. They’ve proven their unionist credentials and can now say we tried but Brexit isn’t as important as the Union .
Good points re: my Vince Cable tip. As someone who bets tiny stakes for fun, I'm happy with the risk/reward ratio. I suspect LD members would be annoyed at a 2nd coronation, so I think he will officially be leader at end of June. I am also happy to have pulled the conversation away from short-term Westminster drama and onto the real "big picture" question facing Britain - the LD leadership.
So if the WA is not voted for today we have a No Deal exit in 2 weeks time on 12th April, unless we revoke Article 50 before then or manage to get the WA approved.
If it does get approved we have until May 22 to get all the necessary legislation in place. God knows what happens if that does not happen. May presumably resigns and then we get some other Tory numpty to start the FTA negotiations with the EU.
Since the chances of the WA getting approved are not good, it still looks like No Deal. Or us begging for an extension, assuming Monday’s votes indicate some way forward.
Yes - today falls no deal rockets and the conservatives will go full broadside on labour for rejecting the WDA which they have agreed to, thereby making no deal very likely and not providing EU citizens with any certainty
It looks likely that the government will lose today's vote by between 50 and 100 votes. Theresa May surely isn't about to do anything other than seek to bring about a fourth vote, and will be a block to any alternative course of action.
I don't think the WA will come back if it fails today. My understanding is if it passes today, extension to 22/5 is a given but if not, given the comments coming out of Paris and elsewhere, we leave without a WA on 12/4.
The next 14 days will have to be about making preparations or confirming those which are hopefully already in place.
Is this a good betting tip or am I making a bad mistake? I just took the Betfair exchange "lay" at short odds on Vince Cable ceasing to be leader of the Lib Dems in April to June 2019. It seems to me to be good value, but it's dependent on Betfair interpretation of market rules. Although Cable has said he will resign at some point soon, the terms of the market require him to "officially cease to be leader". Under the LDs' constitution an election will take place when he gives notice of intention to resign "on election of a new leader". So, he won't cease to be leader officially until a new one's elected, he's not even fired the starting gun on the process, and I'd think that a full membership ballot's unlikely to happen within 3 months given he will want to pass the critical weeks of the Brexit process.
If there's a coronation then you probably lose.
Layla Moran might get taken out by recent revelations.
I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
Given recent comments they’re likely to move towards a softer Brexit and longer extension. They’ve proven their unionist credentials and can now say we tried but Brexit isn’t as important as the Union .
We don't often agree, Malcolm... By the way Nicola is having a good Brexit. I don't think it's going to lead to independence, but it it is cementing the SNP as the only serious political party in Scotland. They are going to go on and on, Fianna Fail style. Not great for governance in Scotland sadly.
So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.
So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.
I would be very happy to see Ken take over as interim PM, as a proper successor is elected
So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.
Are you sure you haven't tipped or backed, at long odds, the whole of the London phone book for next PM/tory leader?
Layla Moran might get taken out by recent revelations.
It's all over for Knuckles Moran.
I'm not sure that's true. She's come out and told what happened - had this appeared in the campaign it would have been infinitely worse. She will have some awkward questions to answer from some in the Party and it's not done her any favours.
I suspect Moran will duck the leadership race this time and run to be Party President in the autumn which she will probably win and be in a position to go for the leadership after the next GE.
I suspect Jo Swinson will be challenged by one or both of Tom Brake and Ed Davey but she is in the leading position.
The problem is with an autumn GE a strong possibility it won't be easy for a new leader to get much recognition before the real campaign starts while the new Conservative leader will have the not inconsiderable advantage of being a) a Conservative and b) the Prime Minister.
Layla Moran might get taken out by recent revelations.
It's all over for Knuckles Moran.
I'm not sure that's true. She's come out and told what happened - had this appeared in the campaign it would have been infinitely worse. She will have some awkward questions to answer from some in the Party and it's not done her any favours.
It looks likely that the government will lose today's vote by between 50 and 100 votes. Theresa May surely isn't about to do anything other than seek to bring about a fourth vote, and will be a block to any alternative course of action.
I don't think the WA will come back if it fails today. My understanding is if it passes today, extension to 22/5 is a given but if not, given the comments coming out of Paris and elsewhere, we leave without a WA on 12/4.
The next 14 days will have to be about making preparations or confirming those which are hopefully already in place.
So it is increasingly likely that the ERG will get their wish - a No Deal Brexit.
(And one J Corbyn will be a happy man - no pesky European rules preventing the creation of his socialist nirvana.)
I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
The "process" is simple - any MP can stand and there are a series of hustings. I attended the London Hustings for both Clegg/Huhne and Farron/Lamb. These are open to all Party members and basically each candidate talks and takes questions.
It's OMOV in our party (no silly colleges). The election will be binary choice if two candidates or STV if three or more.
So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.
Are you sure you haven't tipped or backed, at long odds, the whole of the London phone book for next PM/tory leader?
You should see my next Labour leader book, I think I've either laid or backed more runners than run in the grand national.
Back to the next Tory leader/PM markets I'm very grateful to JRM he totally threw that market out of kilter, he was a great lay but also pushed up the prices of people who were much more realistic contenders than JRM.
Either a shock, or motivating propaganda, it sounds like.
According to the BBC 'Labour whips are locked in worrying conversations as a substantial number of Labour MPs are going to vote with the Tories to get the Withdrawal Agreement through.'
It is just a rumour from a tweet by an SNP MP though!
We don't often agree, Malcolm... By the way Nicola is having a good Brexit. I don't think it's going to lead to independence, but it it is cementing the SNP as the only serious political party in Scotland. They are going to go on and on, Fianna Fail style. Not great for governance in Scotland sadly.
For sure the only grown up politicians in Scotland. The opposition is appalling. I do despair at times of ever seeing independence, unbelievable the crap some people will take and say thanks, but one can hope. PS: Nicola needs to up her game on Indyref2 or else.
So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.
You can't have a GNU without at least one of Labour and the SNP which means their leaders will have a veto on the prime minister, much as Labour refused to work under Chamberlain during the war. I'd suggest that any interim prime minister would head a wholly Conservative government, with confidence and supply from the DUP, precisely as now, and not a GNU.
So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed
I think that would be a superb option. Clarke would make a superb jockey of a gnu.
I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
If only he hadn't poured opprobrium on Theresa's deal in the first place and then flounced off in DD's wake. Had he stayed in the government to fight the case - maybe, just maybe, he would have won round enough of the ultras. Too late now surely.
Much of the pain of voting for this deal is going to come from the ridicule he receives:
Remainers seem obsessed with Boris - he simply isn't going to be leader - he's finished and not worth the attention some place on him.
He's second favourite in the betting. I've been laying him bigtime so I agree with you, but others clearly disagree.
Boris has only one thing going for him in a leadership contest - high recognition.
A leadership contest would a) reduce the unknown factor of others and b) expose Boris's weaknesses.
He can't win a "contest". Why JRM etc back him is a mystery.
You can say what you want about Gove but he trashed his standing in the party by firstly backing Leave on principle, and by stabbing Boris in the back. We have to assume if Boris stands that his reasons will be passed on to the other contenders to take him down again. .
Ditching Boris looks like the correct move by Gove in the long run.
Unfortunately he looks like Pob and is generally hated, so unlikely to get made leader. He could be an important number 2 like slippery Osborne.
Yes and it ought to make no difference at all but it seems to. I'm well aware that there are a significant number of domestic abuse cases where men are the victims and these are far serious than anything Layla Moran did.
And yet...
I'm as ever drawn back to the notion that we cannot and should not be defined by one moment of individual stupidity. Yes, it was wrong but we ought to be better than that. More forgiving and less judgemental. I suspect all of us have done or said things we regret or wish we hadn't - I know I have. I wouldn't want to be defined by those moments or those comments.
Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.
One point which needs to be re-emphasised, as it seems to be getting a bit lost: if the deal is not approved today, then it follows, as night follows day, that we are leaving the EU in exactly two weeks time, in chaos and without any transition, unless parliament agrees something else which the government and the EU accept. (If that something is 'Revoke' then the EU's acceptance is not required).
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
Comments
A leadership contest would a) reduce the unknown factor of others and b) expose Boris's weaknesses.
He can't win a "contest". Why JRM etc back him is a mystery.
On topic I still think Javid is in with a very good chance. Gove has the teachers against him, and the doctors don’t like Hunt. There are significant negatives. Javid is a clean skin with a great backstory.
Isn’t that the current position?
Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.
Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?
All of these raise important points and I expect the Speaker realised he had the choice between taking them all or taking none and keeping things simple.
And I am not expecting this to pass
No deal on the 12th April is rocketing if the deal falls
The extension is guaranteed if the HOC passes it today, no other extension is at all certain due to the 27 needing to pass it unanimously and the uncompromising attitude coming out of France and others
They do not want us to take part in their EU elections next month and I am not at all sure the UK wants to be involved
Layla Moran might get taken out by recent revelations.
The government hates the idea of Euro elections but a long extension is probably there if the UK wants it. We can always ask?
Cox revealed earlier the government almost decided to let IV2 run today in place of its motion. So falling back to IV2 has to be their next move. Indeed only move, really. They always have the choice of putting the WA into IV2 if it does better today.
So if the WA is not voted for today we have a No Deal exit in 2 weeks time on 12th April, unless we revoke Article 50 before then or manage to get the WA approved.
If it does get approved we have until May 22 to get all the necessary legislation in place. God knows what happens if that does not happen. May presumably resigns and then we get some other Tory numpty to start the FTA negotiations with the EU.
Since the chances of the WA getting approved are not good, it still looks like No Deal. Or us begging for an extension, assuming Monday’s votes indicate some way forward.
https://twitter.com/euvoteleave23rd/status/1111426426404651009?s=21
On the 12th April we leave with no deal unless the all the 27 EU countries agree, and France strongly indicating they will not, and we have to agree to take part in the EU elections
Furthermore, any extension has to have a majority approved position in the HOC
I am so glad I don't pay taxes to support these sordid ratfuckers.
Given recent comments they’re likely to move towards a softer Brexit and longer extension. They’ve proven their unionist credentials and can now say we tried but Brexit isn’t as important as the Union .
Thats starting to get close....
The next 14 days will have to be about making preparations or confirming those which are hopefully already in place.
Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.
If the upshot of today's events is that we leave with No Deal on 12th April Parliament will throw Bercow to the wolves the day after IMO.
I suspect Moran will duck the leadership race this time and run to be Party President in the autumn which she will probably win and be in a position to go for the leadership after the next GE.
I suspect Jo Swinson will be challenged by one or both of Tom Brake and Ed Davey but she is in the leading position.
The problem is with an autumn GE a strong possibility it won't be easy for a new leader to get much recognition before the real campaign starts while the new Conservative leader will have the not inconsiderable advantage of being a) a Conservative and b) the Prime Minister.
(And one J Corbyn will be a happy man - no pesky European rules preventing the creation of his socialist nirvana.)
Bahrain practice starts at 11am, I think.
It's OMOV in our party (no silly colleges). The election will be binary choice if two candidates or STV if three or more.
Back to the next Tory leader/PM markets I'm very grateful to JRM he totally threw that market out of kilter, he was a great lay but also pushed up the prices of people who were much more realistic contenders than JRM.
It is just a rumour from a tweet by an SNP MP though!
Perhaps Lisa Nandy will save Brexit?!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-47696409
PS: Nicola needs to up her game on Indyref2 or else.
Jeremy Hunt is PM in waiting.
https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/1111555698918330370
And yet...
I'm as ever drawn back to the notion that we cannot and should not be defined by one moment of individual stupidity. Yes, it was wrong but we ought to be better than that. More forgiving and less judgemental. I suspect all of us have done or said things we regret or wish we hadn't - I know I have. I wouldn't want to be defined by those moments or those comments.
OK...
Given that MPs are still faffing about discussing how many of their favourite unicorns can fit on a pin-head, and the fact that two weeks is not exactly ample time, the danger is pretty obvious, isn't it?
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer