politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast on the Tory leader runners and riders
On this week’s Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by David Herdson to review who might replace Theresa May as Tory leader when the time comes.
Theresa May, 14th Jan: "The link between them [withdrawal agreement + political declaration] means that the commitments of one cannot be banked without the commitments of the other."
Theresa May, 14th Jan: "The link between them [withdrawal agreement + political declaration] means that the commitments of one cannot be banked without the commitments of the other."
Theresa May, 28th Mar: ...except when I say that they can after all.
I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
Theresa May, 14th Jan: "The link between them [withdrawal agreement + political declaration] means that the commitments of one cannot be banked without the commitments of the other."
Theresa May, 28th Mar: ...except when I say that they can after all.
Disappointed that neither David or Keiran mentioned in the podcast the facts that I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1 in this market, nor did they mention I tipped Javid at 60/1.
Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.
I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
Where do you go now though? It’s downhill from here on in.
I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
Disappointed that neither David or Keiran mentioned in the podcast the facts that I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1 in this market, nor did they mention I tipped Javid at 60/1.
Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.
They didnt mention David L's amazing achievement either.
Peston pushing the no deal line again . Apparently a few close to May say she’ll go for no deal on April 12 th .
Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.
Rumour that Labour is preparing a combined CU plus PV option for Monday. Good news if true.
If they won it, which they won't as it has Labour behind it, May would not implement it anyway, though it suggests what could happen if May loses a VONC and Corbyn becomes PM after a snap general election
Disappointed that neither David or Keiran mentioned in the podcast the facts that I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1 in this market, nor did they mention I tipped Javid at 60/1.
Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.
Thanks to TSE, I am on Hunt, Liddington and Hancock. Fingers crossed.
My own, surely equally, legendary modesty prevents me from adding that I tipped Pete Buttigieg for POTUS at 250/1 a while back...
I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
Where do you go now though? It’s downhill from here on in.
Peston pushing the no deal line again . Apparently a few close to May say she’ll go for no deal on April 12 th .
Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.
Surely it gives ERG's a disincentive to vote for it and hope Peston is correct.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
Who knows? I can see a sub 20% turnout, I certainly will not be voting for the first time in my adult life. That makes it a crap shoot based on differential turnout and it just might favour remainers more than leavers.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
Who knows? I can see a sub 20% turnout, I certainly will not be voting for the first time in my adult life. That makes it a crap shoot based on differential turnout and it just might favour remainers more than leavers.
I think the six million revokers are more likely to turnout than the kippers.
Peston pushing the no deal line again . Apparently a few close to May say she’ll go for no deal on April 12 th .
Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.
Surely it gives ERG's a disincentive to vote for it and hope Peston is correct.
Mays plan of telling each side different things hasn’t worked . The likely outcome the EU ask for a very long extension , May says no . Then as it’s cut to one year she proclaims victory . She resigns and a new leader comes in during that time . The DUP are screwed with no deal , the Tories are aswell .
Disappointed that neither David or Keiran mentioned in the podcast the facts that I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1 in this market, nor did they mention I tipped Javid at 60/1.
Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.
Thanks to TSE, I am on Hunt, Liddington and Hancock. Fingers crossed.
My own, surely equally, legendary modesty prevents me from adding that I tipped Pete Buttigieg for POTUS at 250/1 a while back...
I am deeply grateful to you, or at least I will be if his odds continue to tighten.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
Who knows? I can see a sub 20% turnout, I certainly will not be voting for the first time in my adult life. That makes it a crap shoot based on differential turnout and it just might favour remainers more than leavers.
I think the six million revokers are more likely to turnout than the kippers.
Agreed. I can see UKIP in particular losing a lot of seats.
I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
One of those great moments where it’s an honour simply to bear witness to. One day I can tell my grandchildren simply that I was there...
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
Who knows? I can see a sub 20% turnout, I certainly will not be voting for the first time in my adult life. That makes it a crap shoot based on differential turnout and it just might favour remainers more than leavers.
I think the six million revokers are more likely to turnout than the kippers.
Agreed. EU election turnout has never reached 40% in the UK; anything close to 30% would be average.
I of course couldn't have done it without the support of my family, my dear wife, everyone I have ever met, those that I might have met, just everyone really. It is more than I deserve. Truly.
One of those great moments where it’s an honour simply to bear witness to. One day I can tell my grandchildren simply that I was there...
Have you checked your S button mine was stuck for a while?
For context May got 165 MPs in the first round in 2016, even Leadsom got 66, so not quite 'shock and awe' from Hunt especially with Javid also on manoeuvres according to the Article.
In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere and it maybe the next Tory leader ends up Leader of the Opposition not PM if she then loses a VONC and ERG support after proposing we contest the European elections and there is a snap general election
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
For context May got 165 MPs in the first round in 2016, even Leadsom got 66, so not quite 'shock and awe' from Hunt especially with Javid also on manoeuvres according to the Article.
In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere and it maybe the next Tory leader ends up Leader of the Opposition not PM if she then loses a VONC and there is a snap general election
He's locked those 75 down apparently, which makes them sound like he's keeping them in a basement or something.
In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere
If I rated May's cunning a bit higher, I'd be inclined to think this was the plan all along. Get everyone to repeat the "she's only leaving if the deal goes through" line enough to premptively kill off the "if the deal fails, she should resign/be forced out" talk that happened last time
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
How much would they cost? I’ve seen one figure of £100m or similar. Are MPs who daily call for more cash for x y and z really going to sanction it?
Of course they will.
Whether the parties can afford it might be a better question. It is only last week we heard Tory donors are keeping their hands in their pockets, and Labour too over a longer period. It could be that both main parties make token efforts only.
Peston pushing the no deal line again . Apparently a few close to May say she’ll go for no deal on April 12 th .
Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.
Surely it gives ERG's a disincentive to vote for it and hope Peston is correct.
"hope Peston is correct"??
And Santa is real, the Easter bunny brings chocolate eggs, May is credible and...okay, I've reached my limits.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
Considering how the current kipper MEPs are rather prone to punching each others lights out, the convicted Felon and mortgage fraudster S Y-L will be a poor supporting act.
For context May got 165 MPs in the first round in 2016, even Leadsom got 66, so not quite 'shock and awe' from Hunt especially with Javid also on manoeuvres according to the Article.
In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere and it maybe the next Tory leader ends up Leader of the Opposition not PM if she then loses a VONC and there is a snap general election
He's locked those 75 down apparently, which makes them sound like he's keeping them in a basement or something.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
We have a half decent singer this year, and the song was written by John Lundvik who is also singing for Sweden having won Melodifestivalen.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
We have a half decent singer this year, and the song was written by John Lundvik who is also singing for Sweden having won Melodifestivalen.
Could go Top 10...
So you are saying it is going to be less embarrassing than the buffoons, imbeciles and mental incompetents we traditionally elect to the European Parliament? That's a pretty high bar you are setting yourself there.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
I was thinking in terms of the likes of Tommy Robinson, who's a slightly different kettle of fish to Nigel Farage.
There’s a ceiling on support for TR and his ilk (in much the way there is - at a higher level - for Corbyn). Farage’s main achievement was convincing people that UKIP.. or at least the ones allowed on telly like him and Suzanne.. were normal people you wouldn’t be embarrassed talking about. Most importantly, he sold the story it wasn’t about race. It may have been bollocks further down the food chain, but it worked.
If there are more than 10 per cent of voters who’d consider picking Batten and Robinson, I’d be surprised.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
The songs can be somewhat lacking in originality. Next year, I propose a UK entry that extols the myriad virtues of a pound consisting of 240 pence.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
We have a half decent singer this year, and the song was written by John Lundvik who is also singing for Sweden having won Melodifestivalen.
Could go Top 10...
So you are saying it is going to be less embarrassing than the buffoons, imbeciles and mental incompetents we traditionally elect to the European Parliament? That's a pretty high bar you are setting yourself there.
We've sent far far worse.
I've been watching this bunfight since 1981, I've seen some sights I can tell you.
However, given there are 26 songs in the Final and 41 countries voting, anything could happen.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
The songs can be somewhat lacking in originality. Next year, I propose a UK entry that extols the myriad virtues of a pound consisting of 240 pence.
That'll go down a treat in Azerbaijan.
The Italians will probably love it though. They have been looking for that sort of sneaky inflation ever since they joined the Euro.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
They start from a pretty high base, it's totally plausible that they could lose seats.
I thought they'd already had nearly half their MEPs defect, so technically they might not.
It depends how much of the anti-EU vote would go to Farage's new party. UKIP is established and a well known brand, so probably not a high percentage, despite the direction UKIP has taken.
Big congratulations, David, on your premiership. But let the words of Kipling guide you. If you can meet with triumph or disaster, treat those two imposters just the same.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
I was thinking in terms of the likes of Tommy Robinson, who's a slightly different kettle of fish to Nigel Farage.
There’s a ceiling on support for TR and his ilk (in much the way there is - at a higher level - for Corbyn). Farage’s main achievement was convincing people that UKIP.. or at least the ones allowed on telly like him and Suzanne.. were normal people you wouldn’t be embarrassed talking about. Most importantly, he sold the story it wasn’t about race. It may have been bollocks further down the food chain, but it worked.
If there are more than 10 per cent of voters who’d consider picking Batten and Robinson, I’d be surprised.
Problem: what percentage of clueless habit voters are going to go into the polling booth not even realising that UKIP has changed management?
I distinctly recall that, in a previous European election, some total non-entity in Cornwall (IIRC) polled over ten thousand votes standing as a Literal Democrat. Many voters are remarkably careless and/or dense.
Big congratulations, David, on your premiership. But let the words of Kipling guide you. If you can meet with triumph or disaster, treat those two imposters just the same.
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
If things do get to that point then I wouldn't want to even attempt to guess the overall result. It's not inconceivable, for example, that a fanatically pro-EU slate could emerge from the ether and win a slew of seats.
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
I'm a lot more concerned about our recent entries to the Eurovision Song Contest. Firstly, it is a lot more high profile, secondly it impacts much more on ordinary life and thirdly, our recent entries have been truly embarrassing.
We reached the dizzy heights of 15th place, two years ago, just 11 months after EUref.
We were 11th in 2011, and ten years back, we came 5th!
The danger is that holding the Euro Elections in this country would be a fest for populists.
They’d struggle to make gains versus the 2014 result.
I was thinking in terms of the likes of Tommy Robinson, who's a slightly different kettle of fish to Nigel Farage.
There’s a ceiling on support for TR and his ilk (in much the way there is - at a higher level - for Corbyn). Farage’s main achievement was convincing people that UKIP.. or at least the ones allowed on telly like him and Suzanne.. were normal people you wouldn’t be embarrassed talking about. Most importantly, he sold the story it wasn’t about race. It may have been bollocks further down the food chain, but it worked.
If there are more than 10 per cent of voters who’d consider picking Batten and Robinson, I’d be surprised.
In the W. Midlands, that could possibly yield them precisely zero seats. Currently the seven seats in the region are divided up:
Comments
You deserve it
I for one am really chuffed for you
Blindfold Brexit from Jezza on news at 10.
Really really disappointed as my legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning my tips and I'm reliant on others reminding the wider world of my tips.
Terrible oversight IMO
Bet TIG vote against as will probably also result in a GE
Are these the same few who also said the same about March 29 . Another apparent leak designed to try and frighten Labour and others into voting for her WA.
My own, surely equally, legendary modesty prevents me from adding that I tipped Pete Buttigieg for POTUS at 250/1 a while back...
"MEPS “TRICKED” INTO VOTING WRONG WAY OVER ARTICLE 13"
https://order-order.com/2019/03/28/meps-tricked-voting-wrong-way-article-13/
Mail under the ex-Sunday MoS editor seems to have railed back from earlier less Brexity ways when he first took over.
100 MPs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/28/jeremy-hunt-tells-cabinet-colleagues-can-secure-backing-100/
I appear to have left the sarcasm button depressed.
I think it may be still on actually
Don't suppose they're going to be all that happy by tomorrow evening, then.
I meant those from the bottom of my heart
Checks its off
https://twitter.com/Saczak1/status/1111269110707617792?s=19
A) the deal with Raab, whether it ever existed (I mean, who the hell believed that??) is off.
B We are now in full blown leader election time.
But will May engineer at GE before they get chance?
For context May got 165 MPs in the first round in 2016, even Leadsom got 66, so not quite 'shock and awe' from Hunt especially with Javid also on manoeuvres according to the Article.
In any case if May's Deal does not go through tomorrow she is not going anywhere and it maybe the next Tory leader ends up Leader of the Opposition not PM if she then loses a VONC and ERG support after proposing we contest the European elections and there is a snap general election
On the other hand, I'm rather less concerned about the prospect of Nigel Farage being re-elected than I am about Mr Yaxley-Lennon and 15 or 20 of his closest friends being let loose in the European Parliament. If you thought that our reputation couldn't sink any lower in that particular forum, think again.
Goodnight All
Tomorrow brings 3rd strike and your out presumably
And Santa is real, the Easter bunny brings chocolate eggs, May is credible and...okay, I've reached my limits.
Could go Top 10...
"You are flogging a horse so dead that it is already a glue stick"
If there are more than 10 per cent of voters who’d consider picking Batten and Robinson, I’d be surprised.
That'll go down a treat in Azerbaijan.
I've been watching this bunfight since 1981, I've seen some sights I can tell you.
However, given there are 26 songs in the Final and 41 countries voting, anything could happen.
It depends how much of the anti-EU vote would go to Farage's new party. UKIP is established and a well known brand, so probably not a high percentage, despite the direction UKIP has taken.
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1111400149371150338
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/the-erg-are-remains-useful-idiots/
I distinctly recall that, in a previous European election, some total non-entity in Cornwall (IIRC) polled over ten thousand votes standing as a Literal Democrat. Many voters are remarkably careless and/or dense.
We were 11th in 2011, and ten years back, we came 5th!
3 UKIP
2 Tory
2 Labour
0 LD or Green.