politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast on the Tory leader runners an

AlastairMeeks said:

Looking on twitter, it seems fair to say that Boris Johnson's decision seems to have satisfied almost no one, Leaver or Remainer.

Twitter over represents the politically engaged more than anywhere else on the internet except here

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Stereotomy said:

SouthamObserver said:

kjohnw said:

When the WA fails today what is TMs plan B : resign?, revoke?, referendum? GE?, No Deal Exit? She must have thought through what her next step is, surely ?

The Nandy amendment looks like it could deliver a fair few Labour votes if the government accepts it. I do think it is rather sweet that any Labour MP would trust the government to deliver on it in any meaningful way, though.

Can they accept an amendment that the speaker didn't select?

They could I think put a new motion to the House.

I think though that the government intends to cut the majority to -80 today and then engage with (they hope) 25 or so more Lab switchers.

I thought they had to get the WA approved today at the latest?

To get the May 22 extension as currently agreed, yes.

But does anyone really think this will pass today?

This is only an idicative vote, isn't it? MPs could pass the vote to get the extension and then throw out the WA when it comes to a meaningful vote.

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1111571100083896320

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Stark_Dawning said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris decides to accept the Carthaginian peace:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1111564131071676416

If only he hadn't poured opprobrium on Theresa's deal in the first place and then flounced off in DD's wake. Had he stayed in the government to fight the case - maybe, just maybe, he would have won round enough of the ultras. Too late now surely.

Much of the pain of voting for this deal is going to come from the ridicule he receives:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1111565337848352768

Remainers seem obsessed with Boris - he simply isn't going to be leader - he's finished and not worth the attention some place on him.

He's second favourite in the betting. I've been laying him bigtime so I agree with you, but others clearly disagree.

Boris has only one thing going for him in a leadership contest - high recognition.

A leadership contest would a) reduce the unknown factor of others and b) expose Boris's weaknesses.

He can't win a "contest". Why JRM etc back him is a mystery.

You can say what you want about Gove but he trashed his standing in the party by firstly backing Leave on principle, and by stabbing Boris in the back. We have to assume if Boris stands that his reasons will be passed on to the other contenders to take him down again.

On topic I still think Javid is in with a very good chance. Gove has the teachers against him, and the doctors don’t like Hunt. There are significant negatives. Javid is a clean skin with a great backstory.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cox is a very powerful orator on this

Cox is disingenuous to an extreme. MPs are a cynical audience. I can't see them falling for his rhetoric.

On the amendments, looking at the Order paper, there were three tabled. One from the SNP and PC seeking to make any deal conditional on agreement from Scotland and Wales, one from Ken Clarke and some Labour MPs calling on the government to bring forward legislation to revoke, and the Labour rebel one about the future process for the PD.

All of these raise important points and I expect the Speaker realised he had the choice between taking them all or taking none and keeping things simple.

One of the worst things about these endless meaningful votes if having to listen to the ludicrous Cox shout his way through the debate, a relic of the 1950s.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/rossthomson_mp/status/1111570246542999553?s=21

That is a significant conversion.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Cyclefree said:

I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.

Isn’t that the current position?

Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.

Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?

We only need to approve the WA to get to 22 May. Of course to get past the 22 May we would still need the full WA+PD.

Noting it isn't being formally approved but approved "in principle". Which appears to be good enough under International Law to secure the 22 May extension.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1111571413536854016

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1111565825109123073

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1111565825109123073

Obviously responding directly to @Cyclefree's post.

IanB2 said:

On the amendments, looking at the Order paper, there were three tabled. One from the SNP and PC seeking to make any deal conditional on agreement from Scotland and Wales, one from Ken Clarke and some Labour MPs calling on the government to bring forward legislation to revoke, and the Labour rebel one about the future process for the PD.

All of these raise important points and I expect the Speaker realised he had the choice between taking them all or taking none and keeping things simple.

And anyway those issues will be dealt with in the indicative votes on Monday.

Johnson of the Remove. 'The Shameless Charlatan'

OblitusSumMe said:

It looks likely that the government will lose today's vote by between 50 and 100 votes. Theresa May surely isn't about to do anything other than seek to bring about a fourth vote, and will be a block to any alternative course of action.

I don't think that will be possible for her, however, due to multiple factors.

I have a strong feeling now, that if this vote is lost today, she will step down. The move after today is to ask for a long extendtion from the EU, which she has said time and time again she wouldn't do.

WhisperingOracle said:

OblitusSumMe said:

It looks likely that the government will lose today's vote by between 50 and 100 votes. Theresa May surely isn't about to do anything other than seek to bring about a fourth vote, and will be a block to any alternative course of action.

I don't think that will be possible for her, however, due to multiple factors.

Agreed. If the government loses today, initiative passes back to the MPs and IV2.

Cox revealed earlier the government almost decided to let IV2 run today in place of its motion. So falling back to IV2 has to be their next move. Indeed only move, really. They always have the choice of putting the WA into IV2 if it does better today.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.

Isn’t that the current position?

Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.

Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?

Approve the WDA today and we do get the extension

No deal on the 12th April is rocketing if the deal falls

The extension is guaranteed if the HOC passes it today, no other extension is at all certain due to the 27 needing to pass it unanimously and the uncompromising attitude coming out of France and others

They do not want us to take part in their EU elections next month and I am not at all sure the UK wants to be involved

The extension to 12th April includes the possibility of a long further extension. The extension to 22nd May excludes that possibility and therefore increases the risk of no deal.

Thanks for the replies.

So if the WA is not voted for today we have a No Deal exit in 2 weeks time on 12th April, unless we revoke Article 50 before then or manage to get the WA approved.

If it does get approved we have until May 22 to get all the necessary legislation in place. God knows what happens if that does not happen. May presumably resigns and then we get some other Tory numpty to start the FTA negotiations with the EU.

Since the chances of the WA getting approved are not good, it still looks like No Deal. Or us begging for an extension, assuming Monday’s votes indicate some way forward.

Redwood probably nailing why the WAIB isn't being published - government has worked out it needs to repeal the earlier revocation (subject to exit) of EU powers and reintroduce them for the transition period. Even moderate Brexit Tories wont like that given the likely reaction from their members.

Cyclefree said:

Thanks for the replies.

So if the WA is not voted for today we have a No Deal exit in 2 weeks time on 12th April, unless we revoke Article 50 before then or manage to get the WA approved.

If it does get approved we have until May 22 to get all the necessary legislation in place. God knows what happens if that does not happen. May presumably resigns and then we get some other Tory numpty to start the FTA negotiations with the EU.

Since the chances of the WA getting approved are not good, it still looks like No Deal. Or us begging for an extension, assuming Monday’s votes indicate some way forward.

And, in your first para, or we apply for an extension and the EU agrees it. The hope must be that CU and/or PV emerges from IV2 and the EU is happy to then oblige

Dura_Ace said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Layla Moran might get taken out by recent revelations.

It's all over for Knuckles Moran.

Astonishingly low number of plays on words based on the Derek & The Dominoes Song wrt Moran. Is it down to the @NickPalmer pun tax?

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cox is a very powerful orator on this

G , he is a preening cocksure cretinous buffoon, suits the Tory cabinet perfectly.

At least he gives the superficial impression he might know what he is doing, which puts him ahead of the others.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

I am getting confused. Since the WA and PD have not been approved, we have no extension until 22 May. So now, we exit without a deal on April 12 ie in 2 weeks time unless we Revoke Article 50.

Isn’t that the current position?

Conceivably we could seek another long extension to Article 50 but this would need unanimity from all 27 states (very possible that the French would not agree), would require us to join in the European elections and would definitely require a proper political plan from the UK to resolve the impasse.

Am I missing anything? Isn’t today’s vote both pointless and meaningless?

Approve the WDA today and we do get the extension

No deal on the 12th April is rocketing if the deal falls

The extension is guaranteed if the HOC passes it today, no other extension is at all certain due to the 27 needing to pass it unanimously and the uncompromising attitude coming out of France and others

They do not want us to take part in their EU elections next month and I am not at all sure the UK wants to be involved

The extension to 12th April includes the possibility of a long further extension. The extension to 22nd May excludes that possibility and therefore increases the risk of no deal.

It most certainly does not.

On the 12th April we leave with no deal unless the all the 27 EU countries agree, and France strongly indicating they will not, and we have to agree to take part in the EU elections

Furthermore, any extension has to have a majority approved position in the HOC

France is just playing bad cop. The EU will act as one.

Good points re: my Vince Cable tip. As someone who bets tiny stakes for fun, I'm happy with the risk/reward ratio. I suspect LD members would be annoyed at a 2nd coronation, so I think he will officially be leader at end of June. I am also happy to have pulled the conversation away from short-term Westminster drama and onto the real "big picture" question facing Britain - the LD leadership.

Cyclefree said:

Thanks for the replies.

So if the WA is not voted for today we have a No Deal exit in 2 weeks time on 12th April, unless we revoke Article 50 before then or manage to get the WA approved.

If it does get approved we have until May 22 to get all the necessary legislation in place. God knows what happens if that does not happen. May presumably resigns and then we get some other Tory numpty to start the FTA negotiations with the EU.

Since the chances of the WA getting approved are not good, it still looks like No Deal. Or us begging for an extension, assuming Monday’s votes indicate some way forward.

Yes - today falls no deal rockets and the conservatives will go full broadside on labour for rejecting the WDA which they have agreed to, thereby making no deal very likely and not providing EU citizens with any certainty

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737

Thats starting to get close....

Mrs May needs to read up on the Rump Parliament.

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737

Thats starting to get close....

Lose by 20?! Where are these votes coming from?

So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed

malcolmg said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/rossthomson_mp/status/1111570246542999553?s=21

Dear God, another useless loser waste of space.

We don't often agree, Malcolm... By the way Nicola is having a good Brexit. I don't think it's going to lead to independence, but it it is cementing the SNP as the only serious political party in Scotland. They are going to go on and on, Fianna Fail style. Not great for governance in Scotland sadly.

Nigel_Foremain said:

So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed

My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed

My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.

I would be very happy to see Ken take over as interim PM, as a proper successor is elected

Dura_Ace said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Layla Moran might get taken out by recent revelations.

It's all over for Knuckles Moran.

I'm not sure that's true. She's come out and told what happened - had this appeared in the campaign it would have been infinitely worse. She will have some awkward questions to answer from some in the Party and it's not done her any favours.

I suspect Moran will duck the leadership race this time and run to be Party President in the autumn which she will probably win and be in a position to go for the leadership after the next GE.

I suspect Jo Swinson will be challenged by one or both of Tom Brake and Ed Davey but she is in the leading position.

The problem is with an autumn GE a strong possibility it won't be easy for a new leader to get much recognition before the real campaign starts while the new Conservative leader will have the not inconsiderable advantage of being a) a Conservative and b) the Prime Minister.

stodge said:

OblitusSumMe said:

It looks likely that the government will lose today's vote by between 50 and 100 votes. Theresa May surely isn't about to do anything other than seek to bring about a fourth vote, and will be a block to any alternative course of action.

I don't think the WA will come back if it fails today. My understanding is if it passes today, extension to 22/5 is a given but if not, given the comments coming out of Paris and elsewhere, we leave without a WA on 12/4.

The next 14 days will have to be about making preparations or confirming those which are hopefully already in place.

So it is increasingly likely that the ERG will get their wish - a No Deal Brexit.

(And one J Corbyn will be a happy man - no pesky European rules preventing the creation of his socialist nirvana.)

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737

Thats starting to get close....

Lose by 20?! Where are these votes coming from?

Either a shock, or motivating propaganda, it sounds like.

GIN1138 said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737

Thats starting to get close....

If it is 20 it's fair to assume it would probably have passed if Bercow had allowed amendments.

If the upshot of today's events is that we leave with No Deal on 12th April Parliament will throw Bercow to the wolves the day after IMO.

Even if some in parliament might, I very much doubt the majority of the population would blame Bercow for no-deal..

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1111580443458060293

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1111580443458060293

So that's two Brexit Secretaries and a Foreign Secretary who resigned over the deal are now backing the deal?

WhisperingOracle said:

GIN1138 said:

Slackbladder said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1111577629117812737

Thats starting to get close....

If it is 20 it's fair to assume it would probably have passed if Bercow had allowed amendments.

If the upshot of today's events is that we leave with No Deal on 12th April Parliament will throw Bercow to the wolves the day after IMO.

Even if some in parliament might, I very much doubt the majority of the population would blame Bercow for no-deal..

The population might not but just wait for MPs to turn on him... They'll be looking for a patsy to take the heat off themselves and Bercow will be it.

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1111571100083896320

Playing the man not the ball.

And displaying stunning ignorance of the facts at the same time.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1111581628822941696

So this means pollsters will have to start including TIG in their VI questions.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed

My 80/1 on Ken Clarke as next PM hopes so, my one nation Toryism also wants it.

You can't have a GNU without at least one of Labour and the SNP which means their leaders will have a veto on the prime minister, much as Labour refused to work under Chamberlain during the war. I'd suggest that any interim prime minister would head a wholly Conservative government, with confidence and supply from the DUP, precisely as now, and not a GNU.

Nigel_Foremain said:

So as Ken Clarke has presented the only option that has come close to getting over the mark, I wonder what the odds would be on him leading a temporary GNU. He would be far more respected by the EU than anyone else, and consequently would probably get us a very good deal. He could have a couple of the slightly more sensible leavers in cabinet, and some of the grown ups form Labour. It could be agreed for him to use the remainder of this FTPA term, or complete the deal whichever the sooner and then step down and call a GE. It isn't going to happen, but he would be able to bring together a coalition, much like Churchill did, so the wartime narrative will help all the swivel-eyed

I think that would be a superb option. Clarke would make a superb jockey of a gnu.

Endillion said:

I don't think they'll allow a coronation. If Moran gets taken out then either Brake or Hobhouse, possibly Lamb, will be persuaded to stand against Swinson (and who knows, one of them might fancy it anyway), just to take out the "second successive leader without a proper mandate" line of attack.

Either way I'm staying well clear of the market because I don't know how the process works and have been totally unable to find out.

Nominations by local parties, followed by hustings, then an all-member ballot: https://www.libdems.org.uk/constitution

TGOHF said:

Nemtynakht said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Stark_Dawning said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Boris decides to accept the Carthaginian peace:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1111564131071676416

If only he hadn't poured opprobrium on Theresa's deal in the first place and then flounced off in DD's wake. Had he stayed in the government to fight the case - maybe, just maybe, he would have won round enough of the ultras. Too late now surely.

Much of the pain of voting for this deal is going to come from the ridicule he receives:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1111565337848352768

Remainers seem obsessed with Boris - he simply isn't going to be leader - he's finished and not worth the attention some place on him.

He's second favourite in the betting. I've been laying him bigtime so I agree with you, but others clearly disagree.

Boris has only one thing going for him in a leadership contest - high recognition.

A leadership contest would a) reduce the unknown factor of others and b) expose Boris's weaknesses.

He can't win a "contest". Why JRM etc back him is a mystery.

You can say what you want about Gove but he trashed his standing in the party by firstly backing Leave on principle, and by stabbing Boris in the back. We have to assume if Boris stands that his reasons will be passed on to the other contenders to take him down again.
.

Ditching Boris looks like the correct move by Gove in the long run.

Unfortunately he looks like Pob and is generally hated, so unlikely to get made leader. He could be an important number 2 like slippery Osborne.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1111581628822941696

They’ll get my vote

Is it a reasonable interpretation that Corbyn and McDonell are trying to achieve a no deal Brexit whilst appearing not to? Today may be the last chance for the Labour moderates.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1111581628822941696

Change the UK - By keeping everything the same?

OK...

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1111580805405519873?s=21

Woah, we're half way there
Woah, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand, we'll make it I swear
Woah, livin' on a prayer