politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove
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yesmurali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
spend time with your wife and child and stop wasting it on politics0 -
Change is a constant of life and business. No reason why farmers should be immune. Part of Britain’s woeful productivity is resistance to change.eek said:
It did for those farmers that weren't large enough or didn't get suitably efficient quickly enough.viewcode said:
IndeedAmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Just because things are fine in NZ now doesn't mean that a lot of farmers didn't suffer and things changed.0 -
Yep. I've done some Googling and it's apparently not that new, but I only started noticing it about four-five years ago when agents started using it, and it drives me crazy every time.Chris said:
If someone reached out to me I would push back.viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!0 -
The Italian approach to housing is completely different from ours, though. Properties tend to stay in families and people don't move around every few years like we do. Nor do people see housing as an investment. Young people either stay in the family home and either work locally or commute (often surprisingly long distances by train); when they pair up the alternative is renting a flat. One day they inherit the family home. They wouldn't dream of seeing the family home as a "pension" to be sold on retirement. The rate of churn in the housing market is consequently much lower and a reasonable proportion of the sales are distress sales. Obviously broad brush generalisations. But in such a culture the level of house prices isn't nearly such an issue.rcs1000 said:
High home ownership rates are no guarantee of a happy population, or a booming economy. One of the big problems Italy has had is that house prices have been declining (albeit gently) since the late 1990s. The consequence of this is that Italians see their personal balance sheets shrink every month, and it discourages spending and risk taking.HYUFD said:
It makes the point Spain for example has 80% home ownership and 20% unemployment compared to Germany which has less than 5% unemployment and lower home ownership. It also has looked at US states and found stated with lower home ownership and more private renting had lower unemployment since 1950MaxPB said:
Load of bollocks, reports by the parasites for the parasites.HYUFD said:New report says what we really need is a high-quality private rental market like Switzerland and Germany not higher home ownership, that would also improve flexibility in the economy and and keep UK unemployment down
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-home-ownership-and-what-it-really-costs-the-workforce-a4103281.html
Meanwhile Callaghan is arguing that far from offering change Thatcher just wants to take us back to 1970. Not a line that has aged well.0 -
Hey, IanB2, pick up the phone!IanB2 said:
What's up?viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vfs9ncmHC80 -
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?0
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One country's NTB is another country's food safety.Philip_Thompson said:
I would be quite happy to see farmers subsidies, along with tariffs and NTBs scrapped.AmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Cheaper food, lower taxes. What is not to like?
If the people of the UK vote to prohibit the sale of GMOs, shouldn't that be their right?*
* Personally, I'm a fan.0 -
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway0 -
Pointing out that somebody's attack on free speech is an attack on free speech is not in itself an attack on free speech.AmpfieldAndy said:viewcode said:
I fail to see how a commitment to free speech is compatible with haranguing a charity for advertising on a site one disapproves of.Sunil_Prasannan said:Rachel Riley - the best thing to come from Essex after Depeche Mode (um, and Blur!)
No reasonable person could construe her tweet as “haranguing”. If you really value free speech, why can’t you value hers.0 -
so basically Barnier is shitting himselfdots said:This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit0 -
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories0 -
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
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Steve Double sounded as if though he'd been thoroughly outwitted in his r5l interview today0
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Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
Btw, the SNP seemed to be having a good war to date but did they stuff up by not supporting Clarke's option yesterday?0 -
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,dots said:
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway0 -
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed0
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We will have to disagree. One should not sign off with "thanks" (or even worse, "thanks in advance"!) The addressee has the option to decline the request and should not feel compelled.Philip_Thompson said:
She said please. Thanks after the request works.viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!0 -
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
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The last. It's going through the motions by at least attempting to vote on it given the agreement we would leave in May if it passed this week, and it was the easiest way to get it back without taking on Bercow.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
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I don't think there is a majority for a second ref, more likely Customs Unionkjohnw said:If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
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Callaghan's double lock !0
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She must have thought through the decision to bring this vote back tomorrow knowing it would fall. They must have wargamed what will happenAlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
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I don't think this person is really getting it - most people voting against the WA want a very long extension and participation in EU elections. It makes remain easier, or gives time to try to get super soft Brexit or a GE. They know very well what voting it down means - after all, it is what has finally driven a few more Tories to back it.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1111352698207653888
Labour 'rebels' come out to confirm that they still won't vote for the WA yet, with a comment that May is jolly rude to them to boot?0 -
If parliament coalesces around her deal, good for her.AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
If parliament coalesces around a referendum, we get a referendum without it being her fault which is good for her.
If parliament coalesces around a soft Brexit, it provides an incentive for hard Brexiteers to back a Deal/Remain referendum which is also good for her.0 -
On the other hand, there have been many comments stating that May should have asked parliament what to do before starting negotiations. Yesterday's votes rather severely damage that argument, as it shows there would probably have been no consensus two years ago.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
May is not a dictator - and she is being held back by parliament. That *should* be a good feature of the system ...0 -
You’d think so but so much of what she has done recently has been half-assed I’m just not sure.kjohnw said:She must have thought through the decision to bring this vote back tomorrow knowing it would fall. They must have wargamed what will happen
AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
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You think May has a strategy? Whatever gives you that idea?kjohnw said:She must have thought through the decision to bring this vote back tomorrow knowing it would fall. They must have wargamed what will happen
AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
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The key point however is that any alternative approach needs a long extension, and during that extension the possibility of a referendum remains in play (particularly if that alternative itself becomes unpopular and runs toward the same pickles as May's deal); unless it is massively rejected on Monday - which looks unlikely - the PV campaign will go on.Pulpstar said:
I don't think there is a majority for a second ref, more likely Customs Unionkjohnw said:If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
I had forgotten what a good speaker Callaghan was. Now Steel for the Libs.0 -
Resigns surely, saying I understand the Commons view but don’t feel I can personally credibly pursue it.AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
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Speaking of Bercow, I've always been ambivalent about him but last nite I had the greatest sympathy with his attempts to contain rude and unruly behaviour. Was that Christopher Chope chuntering away while Letwin was trying to speak? And who are the loudmouths who sit by the Speaker's chair and yelled like loutish soccer fans when Soubry was asked to speak?IanB2 said:
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.0 -
It's not TIG winning the election Leavers need to be worried about. It's the very real possibility of TIG defections from the Tories once we embark on our ill-advised extension (usual suspects including Greening Grieve Lee etc) and a consequent no confidence vote in the gov't. The resulting general election assuming an alternative government couldn't be found may contrary to the nutters expectations result in an even less Brexit friendly parliament and a second ref/revocation especially if Corbyn, rumoured to be contemplating standing down, does so.IanB2 said:
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,dots said:
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
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Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no dealkjohnw said:If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
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Is it possible she could make the vote a confidence issue and scare the **** out of Tory mps to back her0
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Steel arguing for fixed term parliaments for the Liberals. We got there in the end.0
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Steel advocating a fixed parliament !0
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Why would an extension make the moderate Tories defect to TIG?Norm said:
It's not TIG winning the election Leavers need to be worried about. It's the very real possibility of TIG defections from the Tories once we embark on our ill-advised extension (usual suspects including Greening Grieve Lee etc) and a consequent no confidence vote in the gov't. The resulting general election assuming an alternative government couldn't be found may contrary to the nutters expectations result in an even less Brexit friendly parliament and a second ref/revocation especially if Corbyn, rumoured to be contemplating standing down, does so.IanB2 said:
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,dots said:
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway0 -
They've been surprised by the level of objection every time. They have acted as though blindsided every time the DUP confirm they still have not changed their minds. They were blindsided by Bercow's ruling on MV3 even though he as much as told everyone he would do so the week before. They have switched position to get votes through one day with no plan to get through the next week.kjohnw said:She must have thought through the decision to bring this vote back tomorrow knowing it would fall. They must have wargamed what will happen
AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
I really don't think they've wargamed this. I think they are just stumbling through day by day - for a few hours this week they saw some hope as the ERG wavered, before the DUP killed the last remaining hope. WIthout them, there is no hope at all, and there's surely nothing more to offer them, so it seems more just a procedural activity to keep people focused that the WA does still have 230-270 votes, which is more than many options.0 -
She has space to move now and if the HOC agrees an option I expect she will implement it and then stand downAlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
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Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations0
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Whilst PB comes over all nappy happy, and why not as we welcome our newest junior member, perhaps I might be permitted to recount a rather charming tale.
The son and wife of close friends of the family were blessed with twin boys. The boys room was fitted with cameras and he and his wife would often pass time enchanted by their growing infants and their sibling ways.
Dad would also sit in their room watching the boys sleep but once fell asleep himself, only to wake up some time later to see his boys watching him, cooing and smiling to each other and him. All caught on camera.
It is a precious 10 minutes or so of family film and when Mrs JackW and I saw it there was tears of joy from her indoors. I might have blubbed too ....
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Give Parliament some credit - if they'd spent months having indicative votes not making any progress then that would be a fair criticism, but they've only actually had one day of considering the options in isolation and it still told us more than we'd learned in the last couple of years.JosiasJessop said:
On the other hand, there have been many comments stating that May should have asked parliament what to do before starting negotiations. Yesterday's votes rather severely damage that argument, as it shows there would probably have been no consensus two years ago.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
May is not a dictator - and she is being held back by parliament. That *should* be a good feature of the system ...
I think it is true though to say that it's the imminent deadlines that will focus the minds within the HoC.0 -
I agree. Implying they are planning ahead or have wargamed this can be filed alongside "surely there's a plan for Brexit?" Also they fear Parliament taking control and just need to do something before we get to IV2kle4 said:
They've been surprised by the level of objection every time. They have acted as though blindsided every time the DUP confirm they still have not changed their minds. They were blindsided by Bercow's ruling on MV3 even though he as much as told everyone he would do so the week before. They have switched position to get votes through one day with no plan to get through the next week.kjohnw said:She must have thought through the decision to bring this vote back tomorrow knowing it would fall. They must have wargamed what will happen
AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
I really don't think they've wargamed this. I think they are just stumbling through day by day - for a few hours this week they saw some hope as the ERG wavered, before the DUP killed the last remaining hope. WIthout them, there is no hope at all, and there's surely nothing more to offer them, so it seems more just a procedural activity to keep people focused that the WA does still have 230-270 votes, which is more than many options.0 -
That would have been the honorable action some while back, accompanied by the honest admission that Brexit has been such a feck up that the only sensible thing would be to stop, and start again in order to create a plan and a consensus which could credibly be put to the people at some later date.trawl said:
Resigns surely, saying I understand the Commons view but don’t feel I can personally credibly pursue it.AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
But she was never going to do that, and she won't resign unless forced to.0 -
I lack sympathy for him on that regard because he indulges in it just as much as they do, and appears to take great pleasure in the opportunities to test out his new insults and put downs. I think he would be disappointed if they acted differently. He doesn't contribute to improving the tone of the debate, he helps set the tone.Peter_the_Punter said:
Speaking of Bercow, I've always been ambivalent about him but last nite I had the greatest sympathy with his attempts to contain rude and unruly behaviour. Was that Christopher Chope chuntering away while Letwin was trying to speak? And who are the loudmouths who sit by the Speaker's chair and yelled like loutish soccer fans when Soubry was asked to speak?IanB2 said:
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.0 -
We are on the same page. Her resignation announcement has freed up space for herwilliamglenn said:
If parliament coalesces around her deal, good for her.AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
If parliament coalesces around a referendum, we get a referendum without it being her fault which is good for her.
If parliament coalesces around a soft Brexit, it provides an incentive for hard Brexiteers to back a Deal/Remain referendum which is also good for her.0 -
To me Barnier comes across as keen to go to no deal. Every sentence is variation on its up to London, he will simply change it to its all London’s fault.Alanbrooke said:
so basically Barnier is shitting himselfdots said:This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit
Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?0 -
Steel now advocating devolution. So many of the Liberal ideas of that era are now a reality.0
-
She will just revoke when push comes to shove, but maybe not if she’s confident no deal will be less worse for the tories than revoke ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no dealkjohnw said:If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
0 -
How do you think she gets the general election? Labour aren’t obligingly going to vote for an election that ensures a no deal Brexit.kjohnw said:Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
0 -
And we likely end up with a Corbyn minority government, Sturgeon calling the shots and Single Market and Customs Union BINOkjohnw said:Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
0 -
Somewhere in a drawer I still have my "The real fight is for Britain" poster from 19790
-
Of course someone has the option of declining but there is nothing rude about saying please and thank you, quite the opposite. Please was used at the correct place, thanks is an appropriate sign-off for electronic communication.viewcode said:
We will have to disagree. One should not sign off with "thanks" (or even worse, "thanks in advance"!) The addressee has the option to decline the request and should not feel compelled.Philip_Thompson said:
She said please. Thanks after the request works.viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!0 -
The campaign would have a series of very personalised local adverts in Leave-voting Labour seats.kjohnw said:Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
"Your MP voted to block Brexit 3 times...."0 -
Marvellous.JackW said:Whilst PB comes over all nappy happy, and why not as we welcome our newest junior member, perhaps I might be permitted to recount a rather charming tale.
The son and wife of close friends of the family were blessed with twin boys. The boys room was fitted with cameras and he and his wife would often pass time enchanted by their growing infants and their sibling ways.
Dad would also sit in their room watching the boys sleep but once fell asleep himself, only to wake up some time later to see his boys watching him, cooing and smiling to each other and him. All caught on camera.
It is a precious 10 minutes or so of family film and when Mrs JackW and I saw it there was tears of joy from her indoors. I might have blubbed too ....
That reminds me of this: warning: unbearable cuteness:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX_3Jj2Hqkk0 -
Parliament will not allow No Deal. You saw how popular it was in the indicative vote.kjohnw said:
She will just revoke when push comes to shove, but maybe not if she’s confident no deal will be less worse for the tories than revoke ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no dealkjohnw said:If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
0 -
I am not, I expect the Commons would vote to contest the EU elections and lengthy extension over No Deal and ultimately settle on BINOdots said:
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
0 -
Congratulations Murali!0
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Mortgage rates of 10 odd percent, inflation way up. 70s sound like an economic mess0
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I'm not trying to maximise my potential gains, I'm trying to minimise my potential losses. Which is why I'm on this side of the trade...IanB2 said:
I am with you, and on the other wise of viewcode's trade. Both of us are gambling on no no deal. As you say.Barnesian said:
As long as we don't crash out accidentally, sterling will strengthen. So I am waiting to invest in overseas shares. Strong sterling will buy more.IanB2 said:
The investment consensus seems to be that the US is the most overvalued. But then the consensus is often wrong.viewcode said:For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.
I have been buying UK shares since last November. They are historically cheap and very attractive to overseas investors who can buy at weak sterling prices. As sterling strengthens the UK market rises in $ terms, I'll soon sell my UK shares before overseas investors cash in their profits.
This is all predicated on us not crashing out. If we crash out I won't invest at all but sit on my cash.
0 -
Shamekjohnw said:She must have thought through the decision to bring this vote back tomorrow knowing it would fall. They must have wargamed what will happen
AlastairMeeks said:
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.Peter_the_Punter said:
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.AlastairMeeks said:
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
0 -
The QT panel tonight.
At least I have heard of Yanis...0 -
That's right. Transitioning to a sustainable (subsistence free) state was extremely painful in New Zealand. The move somewhat mirrors what happened in the UK in the 1980s, as unprofitable industries across the country were shut down.eek said:
It did for those farmers that weren't large enough or didn't get suitably efficient quickly enough.viewcode said:
IndeedAmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Just because things are fine in NZ now doesn't mean that a lot of farmers didn't suffer and things changed.
But here's the big difference.
The Conservative Party of 2019 holds all the rural seats.0 -
If soft Brexit is agreed, or there's a long extension, or even revocation, the £ will soar, and won't you lose out? Thanks.viewcode said:
I'm not trying to maximise my potential gains, I'm trying to minimise my potential losses. Which is why I'm on this side of the trade...IanB2 said:
I am with you, and on the other wise of viewcode's trade. Both of us are gambling on no no deal. As you say.Barnesian said:
As long as we don't crash out accidentally, sterling will strengthen. So I am waiting to invest in overseas shares. Strong sterling will buy more.IanB2 said:
The investment consensus seems to be that the US is the most overvalued. But then the consensus is often wrong.viewcode said:For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.
I have been buying UK shares since last November. They are historically cheap and very attractive to overseas investors who can buy at weak sterling prices. As sterling strengthens the UK market rises in $ terms, I'll soon sell my UK shares before overseas investors cash in their profits.
This is all predicated on us not crashing out. If we crash out I won't invest at all but sit on my cash.0 -
LD Gain??Pulpstar said:Steve Double sounded as if though he'd been thoroughly outwitted in his r5l interview today
0 -
Presumable also in Somerset...MarqueeMark said:
The campaign would have a series of very personalised local adverts in Leave-voting Labour seats.kjohnw said:Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
"Your MP voted to block Brexit 3 times...."
Though it does seem as if the biggest switchers to Remain are the WWC, so might well help Labour
https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/0 -
Socialist governments do not last long unless they become dictatorships, Attlee lasted 6 and barely held its majority after only 1 term, Wilson's last 6 and then with Callaghan (and neither were as left as Corbyn), Hollande lasted only 1 term and had Macron not emerged Hollande would have been trounced by Sarkozy or Fillon for re election, in Greece Syriza now trails the centre right badly etcNorthofStoke said:
I think you are being optimistic/generous. It will either be a short lived fiasco or a dangerous tragedy.HYUFD said:
Thatcher won a majority of 40 I cannot see Corbyn matching that, if he gets in it will be the SNP.GIN1138 said:
40 years ago we were on the verge of the Thatcher revolution following a collapsing government.IanB2 said:For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.
Now we could be on the verge of a Jezza revolution following a collapsing government.
It was in any case Attlee who was the real counterpart to Thatcher from a left-wing perspective, I cannot see Corbyn matching him either. In fact I would expect a Corbyn government to be as abysmal and hapless as that of Hollande in France whose own 'socialist revolution' quickly collapsed
0 -
I had forgotten the 1979 debate was the very day before the Liberal by-election win in Liverpool
Now the SNP0 -
How, when the decision has to be taken by the 12th Aprilkjohnw said:Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
Whatever follows is uncertain but there is nothing uncertaain about the 12th April, it is mandated to the following
TM deal
No deal
The rest are all subject to us taking part in the EU elections commencing 12th April
Referendum
GE
Extension but has to be for a specific reason
Revoke0 -
Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?0 -
Because we are not talking about the soft Brexiteers in their ranks but the outright Remainers. Not many of them but enough to tip a confidence vote.IanB2 said:
Why would an extension make the moderate Tories defect to TIG?Norm said:
It's not TIG winning the election Leavers need to be worried about. It's the very real possibility of TIG defections from the Tories once we embark on our ill-advised extension (usual suspects including Greening Grieve Lee etc) and a consequent no confidence vote in the gov't. The resulting general election assuming an alternative government couldn't be found may contrary to the nutters expectations result in an even less Brexit friendly parliament and a second ref/revocation especially if Corbyn, rumoured to be contemplating standing down, does so.IanB2 said:
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,dots said:
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
0 -
If Macron blocks an extension, how will they do this? Revoke? Would they dare?Peter_the_Punter said:
Parliament will not allow No Deal. You saw how popular it was in the indicative vote.
Macron will probably be sat on, so this is unlikely, but still...
0 -
JRM will be next CoE.
The tax deductible for nannies and waistcoat manufacturers are looking good kids.0 -
Oh. Thought you were back in the real world, where Parliament can’t negotiate with EU just the executive.HYUFD said:
I am not, I expect the Commons would vote to contest the EU elections and lengthy extension over No Deal and ultimately settle on BINOdots said:
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
I don’t want to be cheeky, but I am saying you are not admitting the assumptions you are basing your view on. You are assuming EU will always grant extensions to avoid no deal? You are assuming whichever party leader in power will always go to Brussels and beg for extension and participation in EU elections, in other words always put country before party?0 -
She cannot just revoke. The HOC need to mandate itkjohnw said:
She will just revoke when push comes to shove, but maybe not if she’s confident no deal will be less worse for the tories than revoke ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no dealkjohnw said:If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
0 -
Only in the event of No Deal would TIG I think win but No Deal would probably require a Boris or Raab government winning a snap general election after May's Deal fails, Corbyn cannot become PM without the SNP who will demand renegotiating with the EU BINO as the price of their support. So TIG would really be winning the general election after nextIanB2 said:
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,dots said:
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway0 -
The EU has a collective position; talk of national veto is just posturing.AnotherEngineer said:
If Macron blocks an extension, how will they do this? Revoke? Would they dare?Peter_the_Punter said:
Parliament will not allow No Deal. You saw how popular it was in the indicative vote.
Macron will probably be sat on, so this is unlikely, but still...
Long extension is the first line of defence. Revocation the second, either forced upon the government, or by bringing it down.0 -
Mine hasn't ! I expect his battle will be for reselection, but even the Lib Dems are a bit leavey round these parts so I think Mann will hold.MarqueeMark said:
The campaign would have a series of very personalised local adverts in Leave-voting Labour seats.kjohnw said:Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
"Your MP voted to block Brexit 3 times...."0 -
Good Luck with the "Weve been in power for 3 years come up with a shit Tory BREXIT that was so shit most of our own MPs hated it so much they forced a GE" strategyMarqueeMark said:
The campaign would have a series of very personalised local adverts in Leave-voting Labour seats.kjohnw said:Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
"Your MP voted to block Brexit 3 times...."
Sounds worse then Dementia Tax to me0 -
"The number of these signatures on the article 50 petition is within the normal range—around 1%."isam said:Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?0 -
were they all Russians ?isam said:Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?0 -
How thoughPeter_the_Punter said:
Parliament will not allow No Deal. You saw how popular it was in the indicative vote.kjohnw said:
She will just revoke when push comes to shove, but maybe not if she’s confident no deal will be less worse for the tories than revoke ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no dealkjohnw said:If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
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SlackersJosiasJessop said:
"The number of these signatures on the article 50 petition is within the normal range—around 1%."isam said:Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?0 -
Yeah, I can see that he kind of asks for it, but Chope repeatedly interrupting Letwin? The thugs grinning as they shouted down Soubry? This was Parliament's chance to show its mettle, to show it was up to the challenge?kle4 said:
I lack sympathy for him on that regard because he indulges in it just as much as they do, and appears to take great pleasure in the opportunities to test out his new insults and put downs. I think he would be disappointed if they acted differently. He doesn't contribute to improving the tone of the debate, he helps set the tone.Peter_the_Punter said:
Speaking of Bercow, I've always been ambivalent about him but last nite I had the greatest sympathy with his attempts to contain rude and unruly behaviour. Was that Christopher Chope chuntering away while Letwin was trying to speak? And who are the loudmouths who sit by the Speaker's chair and yelled like loutish soccer fans when Soubry was asked to speak?IanB2 said:
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.
How do you think it looked to the rest of the world?0 -
I don’t see any reason not to take the figures pretty much at face value. The various analyses of the data have strikingly shown very normal patterns.isam said:Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?0 -
Good point, the Rogernomics reforms and removal of subsidies was a NZ Labour party initiative, with a predominately urban and Maori electorate.rcs1000 said:
That's right. Transitioning to a sustainable (subsistence free) state was extremely painful in New Zealand. The move somewhat mirrors what happened in the UK in the 1980s, as unprofitable industries across the country were shut down.eek said:
It did for those farmers that weren't large enough or didn't get suitably efficient quickly enough.viewcode said:
IndeedAmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Just because things are fine in NZ now doesn't mean that a lot of farmers didn't suffer and things changed.
But here's the big difference.
The Conservative Party of 2019 holds all the rural seats.0 -
I sense Tusk keen to keep fighting to keep us in. But it’s not decision for commission, and I sense Germany and France have decided to let us fall out, so they can pick up the pieces and move on.dots said:
To me Barnier comes across as keen to go to no deal. Every sentence is variation on its up to London, he will simply change it to its all London’s fault.Alanbrooke said:
so basically Barnier is shitting himselfdots said:This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit
Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?0 -
Signing off, but fingers crossed that Letwin and co can help move things along soon, as goodness only knows the government cannot, no matter how hard it tries. A part of me still hopes they can agree something which only results in a short extension, but I just cannot see it - so many people benefit, or think they benefit, from a long, long extension.0
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Yes, whenever I give a quote to a potential client and they go somewhere else, I expect them to signal that they will pay what I intended to charge if they want to come back for a quote on anything else.dots said:This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit
The UK's leverage in such a situation would be (and what an joy it would be) to BLAME THE FRENCH. (1) It could well be Macron's reported obstructiveness that causes an 'accidental' no-deal, (2) of the EU27 it would be France where the no-deal hit would be felt most keenly (the Irish border of course staying quite miraculously open), and (3) Macron's not looking too hot in the Euro polling, below LePen for six months now.0 -
And the executive leader, May, has already said the Commons has voted against No Deal and if it will not back her Deal the only alternative is to contest the EU Parliament elections and lengthy extension and Tusk has also recommended the UK be allowed to contest the EU elections and extension if the Commons votes for it which they would over No Deal.dots said:
Oh. Thought you were back in the real world, where Parliament can’t negotiate with EU just the executive.HYUFD said:
I am not, I expect the Commons would vote to contest the EU elections and lengthy extension over No Deal and ultimately settle on BINOdots said:
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.HYUFD said:
Both Labour and the Te a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anywaydots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
I don’t want to be cheeky, but I am saying you are not admitting the assumptions you are basing your view on. You are assuming EU will always grant extensions to avoid no deal? You are assuming whichever party leader in power will always go to Brussels and beg for extension and participation in EU elections, in other words always put country before party?
As I said below the only way we likely get No Deal is if Boris or Raab win a general election on a No Deal and try for unicorn Canada FTA Deal ticket if May's Deal loses and she loses a VONC as a result0 -
Nah, the Russian bots are pro Brexit, they are the ones attacking the petition.Alanbrooke said:
were they all Russians ?isam said:Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?
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I don't care how it looks to the rest of the world, some places are even worse with actual fistfights and the like. I very much don't like how parliamentarians conduct themselves generally, although a certain level of rowdy debate is not in itself a bad thing, and don't support the examples you provide, but it is not that Bercow asks for it, it is that I think he's a hypocrite in condemning it because he enjoys it so much. It doesn't make the behaviours of others ok, but it puts his own theatrics in context.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, I can see that he kind of asks for it, but Chope repeatedly interrupting Letwin? The thugs grinning as they shouted down Soubry? This was Parliament's chance to show its mettle, to show it was up to the challenge?kle4 said:
I lack sympathy for him on that regard because he indulges in it just as much as they do, and appears to take great pleasure in the opportunities to test out his new insults and put downs. I think he would be disappointed if they acted differently. He doesn't contribute to improving the tone of the debate, he helps set the tone.Peter_the_Punter said:
Speaking of Bercow, I've always been ambivalent about him but last nite I had the greatest sympathy with his attempts to contain rude and unruly behaviour. Was that Christopher Chope chuntering away while Letwin was trying to speak? And who are the loudmouths who sit by the Speaker's chair and yelled like loutish soccer fans when Soubry was asked to speak?IanB2 said:
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.solarflare said:OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.
How do you think it looked to the rest of the world?0 -
There are reports that we have got to the point where the EU thinks the cost to them of us leaving with No Deal is now little moe than the cost of us staying, especially if a long extension is involved.dots said:
I sense Tusk keen to keep fighting to keep us in. But it’s not decision for commission, and I sense Germany and France have decided to let us fall out, so they can pick up the pieces and move on.dots said:
To me Barnier comes across as keen to go to no deal. Every sentence is variation on its up to London, he will simply change it to its all London’s fault.Alanbrooke said:
so basically Barnier is shitting himselfdots said:This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit
Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?0 -
Weird to hear Plaid and the SNP talking about policy..0
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1%ish so only 50,000 odd. I thought it’d be much moreAlastairMeeks said:
I don’t see any reason not to take the figures pretty much at face value. The various analyses of the data have strikingly shown very normal patterns.isam said:Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?0 -
I think you make a valid point. France and Germany could see no deal as an opportunity for them to steal business and the city from London . They want to pick away our corpse. Especially the frenchdots said:
I sense Tusk keen to keep fighting to keep us in. But it’s not decision for commission, and I sense Germany and France have decided to let us fall out, so they can pick up the pieces and move on.dots said:
To me Barnier comes across as keen to go to no deal. Every sentence is variation on its up to London, he will simply change it to its all London’s fault.Alanbrooke said:
so basically Barnier is shitting himselfdots said:This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit
Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?0 -
The main thing to take away is there are an awful lot of very steamed up Remainers. Obvious from the polling but external indicators are always helpful.isam said:
1%ish so only 50,000 odd. I thought it’d be much moreAlastairMeeks said:
I don’t see any reason not to take the figures pretty much at face value. The various analyses of the data have strikingly shown very normal patterns.isam said:Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?0 -
I'm unsure that's correct. You need to start from what the Russians want. They do not directly want Brexit, but they want chaos in their opponents, which are the EU and, more directly, the UK. It might well be in their interests to encourage one side or the other, or even both, at any one time.Foxy said:
Nah, the Russian bots are pro Brexit, they are the ones attacking the petition.Alanbrooke said:
were they all Russians ?isam said:Not to besmirch the potential Theresa May Murderer’s petition, but how many people do you reckon signed it twice?
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?0 -
Congratulations to Murali and Mrs Murali - best wishes for you and your new arrival sir.0
