Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
yes
spend time with your wife and child and stop wasting it on politics
Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health Sec
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.
Indeed
It did for those farmers that weren't large enough or didn't get suitably efficient quickly enough.
Just because things are fine in NZ now doesn't mean that a lot of farmers didn't suffer and things changed.
Change is a constant of life and business. No reason why farmers should be immune. Part of Britain’s woeful productivity is resistance to change.
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!
If someone reached out to me I would push back.
Yep. I've done some Googling and it's apparently not that new, but I only started noticing it about four-five years ago when agents started using it, and it drives me crazy every time.
New report says what we really need is a high-quality private rental market like Switzerland and Germany not higher home ownership, that would also improve flexibility in the economy and and keep UK unemployment down
Load of bollocks, reports by the parasites for the parasites.
It makes the point Spain for example has 80% home ownership and 20% unemployment compared to Germany which has less than 5% unemployment and lower home ownership. It also has looked at US states and found stated with lower home ownership and more private renting had lower unemployment since 1950
High home ownership rates are no guarantee of a happy population, or a booming economy. One of the big problems Italy has had is that house prices have been declining (albeit gently) since the late 1990s. The consequence of this is that Italians see their personal balance sheets shrink every month, and it discourages spending and risk taking.
The Italian approach to housing is completely different from ours, though. Properties tend to stay in families and people don't move around every few years like we do. Nor do people see housing as an investment. Young people either stay in the family home and either work locally or commute (often surprisingly long distances by train); when they pair up the alternative is renting a flat. One day they inherit the family home. They wouldn't dream of seeing the family home as a "pension" to be sold on retirement. The rate of churn in the housing market is consequently much lower and a reasonable proportion of the sales are distress sales. Obviously broad brush generalisations. But in such a culture the level of house prices isn't nearly such an issue.
Meanwhile Callaghan is arguing that far from offering change Thatcher just wants to take us back to 1970. Not a line that has aged well.
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health Sec
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.
I would be quite happy to see farmers subsidies, along with tariffs and NTBs scrapped.
Cheaper food, lower taxes. What is not to like?
One country's NTB is another country's food safety.
If the people of the UK vote to prohibit the sale of GMOs, shouldn't that be their right?*
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement. Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
Btw, the SNP seemed to be having a good war to date but did they stuff up by not supporting Clarke's option yesterday?
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!
She said please. Thanks after the request works.
We will have to disagree. One should not sign off with "thanks" (or even worse, "thanks in advance"!) The addressee has the option to decline the request and should not feel compelled.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last. It's going through the motions by at least attempting to vote on it given the agreement we would leave in May if it passed this week, and it was the easiest way to get it back without taking on Bercow.
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
I don't think there is a majority for a second ref, more likely Customs Union
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
I don't think this person is really getting it - most people voting against the WA want a very long extension and participation in EU elections. It makes remain easier, or gives time to try to get super soft Brexit or a GE. They know very well what voting it down means - after all, it is what has finally driven a few more Tories to back it. https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1111352698207653888 Labour 'rebels' come out to confirm that they still won't vote for the WA yet, with a comment that May is jolly rude to them to boot?
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
If parliament coalesces around her deal, good for her.
If parliament coalesces around a referendum, we get a referendum without it being her fault which is good for her.
If parliament coalesces around a soft Brexit, it provides an incentive for hard Brexiteers to back a Deal/Remain referendum which is also good for her.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
On the other hand, there have been many comments stating that May should have asked parliament what to do before starting negotiations. Yesterday's votes rather severely damage that argument, as it shows there would probably have been no consensus two years ago.
May is not a dictator - and she is being held back by parliament. That *should* be a good feature of the system ...
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
You’d think so but so much of what she has done recently has been half-assed I’m just not sure.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
You think May has a strategy? Whatever gives you that idea?
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
I don't think there is a majority for a second ref, more likely Customs Union
The key point however is that any alternative approach needs a long extension, and during that extension the possibility of a referendum remains in play (particularly if that alternative itself becomes unpopular and runs toward the same pickles as May's deal); unless it is massively rejected on Monday - which looks unlikely - the PV campaign will go on.
I had forgotten what a good speaker Callaghan was. Now Steel for the Libs.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
Resigns surely, saying I understand the Commons view but don’t feel I can personally credibly pursue it.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
Speaking of Bercow, I've always been ambivalent about him but last nite I had the greatest sympathy with his attempts to contain rude and unruly behaviour. Was that Christopher Chope chuntering away while Letwin was trying to speak? And who are the loudmouths who sit by the Speaker's chair and yelled like loutish soccer fans when Soubry was asked to speak?
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,
It's not TIG winning the election Leavers need to be worried about. It's the very real possibility of TIG defections from the Tories once we embark on our ill-advised extension (usual suspects including Greening Grieve Lee etc) and a consequent no confidence vote in the gov't. The resulting general election assuming an alternative government couldn't be found may contrary to the nutters expectations result in an even less Brexit friendly parliament and a second ref/revocation especially if Corbyn, rumoured to be contemplating standing down, does so.
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no deal
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,
It's not TIG winning the election Leavers need to be worried about. It's the very real possibility of TIG defections from the Tories once we embark on our ill-advised extension (usual suspects including Greening Grieve Lee etc) and a consequent no confidence vote in the gov't. The resulting general election assuming an alternative government couldn't be found may contrary to the nutters expectations result in an even less Brexit friendly parliament and a second ref/revocation especially if Corbyn, rumoured to be contemplating standing down, does so.
Why would an extension make the moderate Tories defect to TIG?
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
They've been surprised by the level of objection every time. They have acted as though blindsided every time the DUP confirm they still have not changed their minds. They were blindsided by Bercow's ruling on MV3 even though he as much as told everyone he would do so the week before. They have switched position to get votes through one day with no plan to get through the next week.
I really don't think they've wargamed this. I think they are just stumbling through day by day - for a few hours this week they saw some hope as the ERG wavered, before the DUP killed the last remaining hope. WIthout them, there is no hope at all, and there's surely nothing more to offer them, so it seems more just a procedural activity to keep people focused that the WA does still have 230-270 votes, which is more than many options.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
She has space to move now and if the HOC agrees an option I expect she will implement it and then stand down
Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
Whilst PB comes over all nappy happy, and why not as we welcome our newest junior member, perhaps I might be permitted to recount a rather charming tale.
The son and wife of close friends of the family were blessed with twin boys. The boys room was fitted with cameras and he and his wife would often pass time enchanted by their growing infants and their sibling ways.
Dad would also sit in their room watching the boys sleep but once fell asleep himself, only to wake up some time later to see his boys watching him, cooing and smiling to each other and him. All caught on camera.
It is a precious 10 minutes or so of family film and when Mrs JackW and I saw it there was tears of joy from her indoors. I might have blubbed too ....
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
On the other hand, there have been many comments stating that May should have asked parliament what to do before starting negotiations. Yesterday's votes rather severely damage that argument, as it shows there would probably have been no consensus two years ago.
May is not a dictator - and she is being held back by parliament. That *should* be a good feature of the system ...
Give Parliament some credit - if they'd spent months having indicative votes not making any progress then that would be a fair criticism, but they've only actually had one day of considering the options in isolation and it still told us more than we'd learned in the last couple of years.
I think it is true though to say that it's the imminent deadlines that will focus the minds within the HoC.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
They've been surprised by the level of objection every time. They have acted as though blindsided every time the DUP confirm they still have not changed their minds. They were blindsided by Bercow's ruling on MV3 even though he as much as told everyone he would do so the week before. They have switched position to get votes through one day with no plan to get through the next week.
I really don't think they've wargamed this. I think they are just stumbling through day by day - for a few hours this week they saw some hope as the ERG wavered, before the DUP killed the last remaining hope. WIthout them, there is no hope at all, and there's surely nothing more to offer them, so it seems more just a procedural activity to keep people focused that the WA does still have 230-270 votes, which is more than many options.
I agree. Implying they are planning ahead or have wargamed this can be filed alongside "surely there's a plan for Brexit?" Also they fear Parliament taking control and just need to do something before we get to IV2
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
Resigns surely, saying I understand the Commons view but don’t feel I can personally credibly pursue it.
That would have been the honorable action some while back, accompanied by the honest admission that Brexit has been such a feck up that the only sensible thing would be to stop, and start again in order to create a plan and a consensus which could credibly be put to the people at some later date.
But she was never going to do that, and she won't resign unless forced to.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
Speaking of Bercow, I've always been ambivalent about him but last nite I had the greatest sympathy with his attempts to contain rude and unruly behaviour. Was that Christopher Chope chuntering away while Letwin was trying to speak? And who are the loudmouths who sit by the Speaker's chair and yelled like loutish soccer fans when Soubry was asked to speak?
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.
I lack sympathy for him on that regard because he indulges in it just as much as they do, and appears to take great pleasure in the opportunities to test out his new insults and put downs. I think he would be disappointed if they acted differently. He doesn't contribute to improving the tone of the debate, he helps set the tone.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
If parliament coalesces around her deal, good for her.
If parliament coalesces around a referendum, we get a referendum without it being her fault which is good for her.
If parliament coalesces around a soft Brexit, it provides an incentive for hard Brexiteers to back a Deal/Remain referendum which is also good for her.
We are on the same page. Her resignation announcement has freed up space for her
This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement. Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
To me Barnier comes across as keen to go to no deal. Every sentence is variation on its up to London, he will simply change it to its all London’s fault. Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no deal
She will just revoke when push comes to shove, but maybe not if she’s confident no deal will be less worse for the tories than revoke ?
Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
How do you think she gets the general election? Labour aren’t obligingly going to vote for an election that ensures a no deal Brexit.
Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
And we likely end up with a Corbyn minority government, Sturgeon calling the shots and Single Market and Customs Union BINO
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!
She said please. Thanks after the request works.
We will have to disagree. One should not sign off with "thanks" (or even worse, "thanks in advance"!) The addressee has the option to decline the request and should not feel compelled.
Of course someone has the option of declining but there is nothing rude about saying please and thank you, quite the opposite. Please was used at the correct place, thanks is an appropriate sign-off for electronic communication.
Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
The campaign would have a series of very personalised local adverts in Leave-voting Labour seats.
Whilst PB comes over all nappy happy, and why not as we welcome our newest junior member, perhaps I might be permitted to recount a rather charming tale.
The son and wife of close friends of the family were blessed with twin boys. The boys room was fitted with cameras and he and his wife would often pass time enchanted by their growing infants and their sibling ways.
Dad would also sit in their room watching the boys sleep but once fell asleep himself, only to wake up some time later to see his boys watching him, cooing and smiling to each other and him. All caught on camera.
It is a precious 10 minutes or so of family film and when Mrs JackW and I saw it there was tears of joy from her indoors. I might have blubbed too ....
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no deal
She will just revoke when push comes to shove, but maybe not if she’s confident no deal will be less worse for the tories than revoke ?
Parliament will not allow No Deal. You saw how popular it was in the indicative vote.
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
I am not, I expect the Commons would vote to contest the EU elections and lengthy extension over No Deal and ultimately settle on BINO
For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.
The investment consensus seems to be that the US is the most overvalued. But then the consensus is often wrong.
As long as we don't crash out accidentally, sterling will strengthen. So I am waiting to invest in overseas shares. Strong sterling will buy more.
I have been buying UK shares since last November. They are historically cheap and very attractive to overseas investors who can buy at weak sterling prices. As sterling strengthens the UK market rises in $ terms, I'll soon sell my UK shares before overseas investors cash in their profits.
This is all predicated on us not crashing out. If we crash out I won't invest at all but sit on my cash.
I am with you, and on the other wise of viewcode's trade. Both of us are gambling on no no deal. As you say.
I'm not trying to maximise my potential gains, I'm trying to minimise my potential losses. Which is why I'm on this side of the trade...
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The last - and a sign of desperation, and a displacement activity.
Blame game I suspect but not likely to be successful even with that limited objective.
I can’t work out what Theresa May does if, as now looks likely, Parliament coalesces around an option she has ruled out. She looks checkmated whatever she does.
Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health Sec
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.
Indeed
It did for those farmers that weren't large enough or didn't get suitably efficient quickly enough.
Just because things are fine in NZ now doesn't mean that a lot of farmers didn't suffer and things changed.
That's right. Transitioning to a sustainable (subsistence free) state was extremely painful in New Zealand. The move somewhat mirrors what happened in the UK in the 1980s, as unprofitable industries across the country were shut down.
But here's the big difference.
The Conservative Party of 2019 holds all the rural seats.
For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.
The investment consensus seems to be that the US is the most overvalued. But then the consensus is often wrong.
As long as we don't crash out accidentally, sterling will strengthen. So I am waiting to invest in overseas shares. Strong sterling will buy more.
I have been buying UK shares since last November. They are historically cheap and very attractive to overseas investors who can buy at weak sterling prices. As sterling strengthens the UK market rises in $ terms, I'll soon sell my UK shares before overseas investors cash in their profits.
This is all predicated on us not crashing out. If we crash out I won't invest at all but sit on my cash.
I am with you, and on the other wise of viewcode's trade. Both of us are gambling on no no deal. As you say.
I'm not trying to maximise my potential gains, I'm trying to minimise my potential losses. Which is why I'm on this side of the trade...
If soft Brexit is agreed, or there's a long extension, or even revocation, the £ will soar, and won't you lose out? Thanks.
Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
The campaign would have a series of very personalised local adverts in Leave-voting Labour seats.
"Your MP voted to block Brexit 3 times...."
Presumable also in Somerset...
Though it does seem as if the biggest switchers to Remain are the WWC, so might well help Labour
For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.
40 years ago we were on the verge of the Thatcher revolution following a collapsing government.
Now we could be on the verge of a Jezza revolution following a collapsing government.
Thatcher won a majority of 40 I cannot see Corbyn matching that, if he gets in it will be the SNP.
It was in any case Attlee who was the real counterpart to Thatcher from a left-wing perspective, I cannot see Corbyn matching him either. In fact I would expect a Corbyn government to be as abysmal and hapless as that of Hollande in France whose own 'socialist revolution' quickly collapsed
I think you are being optimistic/generous. It will either be a short lived fiasco or a dangerous tragedy.
Socialist governments do not last long unless they become dictatorships, Attlee lasted 6 and barely held its majority after only 1 term, Wilson's last 6 and then with Callaghan (and neither were as left as Corbyn), Hollande lasted only 1 term and had Macron not emerged Hollande would have been trounced by Sarkozy or Fillon for re election, in Greece Syriza now trails the centre right badly etc
Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
How, when the decision has to be taken by the 12th April
Whatever follows is uncertain but there is nothing uncertaain about the 12th April, it is mandated to the following
TM deal
No deal
The rest are all subject to us taking part in the EU elections commencing 12th April
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,
It's not TIG winning the election Leavers need to be worried about. It's the very real possibility of TIG defections from the Tories once we embark on our ill-advised extension (usual suspects including Greening Grieve Lee etc) and a consequent no confidence vote in the gov't. The resulting general election assuming an alternative government couldn't be found may contrary to the nutters expectations result in an even less Brexit friendly parliament and a second ref/revocation especially if Corbyn, rumoured to be contemplating standing down, does so.
Why would an extension make the moderate Tories defect to TIG?
Because we are not talking about the soft Brexiteers in their ranks but the outright Remainers. Not many of them but enough to tip a confidence vote.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
I am not, I expect the Commons would vote to contest the EU elections and lengthy extension over No Deal and ultimately settle on BINO
Oh. Thought you were back in the real world, where Parliament can’t negotiate with EU just the executive.
I don’t want to be cheeky, but I am saying you are not admitting the assumptions you are basing your view on. You are assuming EU will always grant extensions to avoid no deal? You are assuming whichever party leader in power will always go to Brussels and beg for extension and participation in EU elections, in other words always put country before party?
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no deal
She will just revoke when push comes to shove, but maybe not if she’s confident no deal will be less worse for the tories than revoke ?
She cannot just revoke. The HOC need to mandate it
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
Remarkable the way HY swings from one wild prediction to another. It's just as well he doesn't gamble! Still, if TIG do "win the next GE comfortably" we read it here first,
Only in the event of No Deal would TIG I think win but No Deal would probably require a Boris or Raab government winning a snap general election after May's Deal fails, Corbyn cannot become PM without the SNP who will demand renegotiating with the EU BINO as the price of their support. So TIG would really be winning the general election after next
Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
The campaign would have a series of very personalised local adverts in Leave-voting Labour seats.
"Your MP voted to block Brexit 3 times...."
Mine hasn't ! I expect his battle will be for reselection, but even the Lib Dems are a bit leavey round these parts so I think Mann will hold.
Forcing a GE could actually ensure we leave the EU , she blames labour for blocking the deal, the DUP are no longer in play , and she goes to the country promising to step down for a new PM to carry on the negotiations
The campaign would have a series of very personalised local adverts in Leave-voting Labour seats.
"Your MP voted to block Brexit 3 times...."
Good Luck with the "Weve been in power for 3 years come up with a shit Tory BREXIT that was so shit most of our own MPs hated it so much they forced a GE" strategy
If as expected the WA fails tomorrow under what scenario is it even remotely possible we could still no deal exit, surely parliament will just approve second vote on Monday and TM will shrug her shoulders either way the Tory party is screwed
Are you serious. No deal is becoming very likely and no, the HOC will not just approve a second vote and that is it. Legislation is needed in just 14 days to stop no deal
She will just revoke when push comes to shove, but maybe not if she’s confident no deal will be less worse for the tories than revoke ?
Parliament will not allow No Deal. You saw how popular it was in the indicative vote.
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
Speaking of Bercow, I've always been ambivalent about him but last nite I had the greatest sympathy with his attempts to contain rude and unruly behaviour. Was that Christopher Chope chuntering away while Letwin was trying to speak? And who are the loudmouths who sit by the Speaker's chair and yelled like loutish soccer fans when Soubry was asked to speak?
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.
I lack sympathy for him on that regard because he indulges in it just as much as they do, and appears to take great pleasure in the opportunities to test out his new insults and put downs. I think he would be disappointed if they acted differently. He doesn't contribute to improving the tone of the debate, he helps set the tone.
Yeah, I can see that he kind of asks for it, but Chope repeatedly interrupting Letwin? The thugs grinning as they shouted down Soubry? This was Parliament's chance to show its mettle, to show it was up to the challenge?
How do you think it looked to the rest of the world?
Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health Sec
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.
Indeed
It did for those farmers that weren't large enough or didn't get suitably efficient quickly enough.
Just because things are fine in NZ now doesn't mean that a lot of farmers didn't suffer and things changed.
That's right. Transitioning to a sustainable (subsistence free) state was extremely painful in New Zealand. The move somewhat mirrors what happened in the UK in the 1980s, as unprofitable industries across the country were shut down.
But here's the big difference.
The Conservative Party of 2019 holds all the rural seats.
Good point, the Rogernomics reforms and removal of subsidies was a NZ Labour party initiative, with a predominately urban and Maori electorate.
This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement. Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
To me Barnier comes across as keen to go to no deal. Every sentence is variation on its up to London, he will simply change it to its all London’s fault. Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?
I sense Tusk keen to keep fighting to keep us in. But it’s not decision for commission, and I sense Germany and France have decided to let us fall out, so they can pick up the pieces and move on.
Signing off, but fingers crossed that Letwin and co can help move things along soon, as goodness only knows the government cannot, no matter how hard it tries. A part of me still hopes they can agree something which only results in a short extension, but I just cannot see it - so many people benefit, or think they benefit, from a long, long extension.
This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement. Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
Yes, whenever I give a quote to a potential client and they go somewhere else, I expect them to signal that they will pay what I intended to charge if they want to come back for a quote on anything else.
The UK's leverage in such a situation would be (and what an joy it would be) to BLAME THE FRENCH. (1) It could well be Macron's reported obstructiveness that causes an 'accidental' no-deal, (2) of the EU27 it would be France where the no-deal hit would be felt most keenly (the Irish border of course staying quite miraculously open), and (3) Macron's not looking too hot in the Euro polling, below LePen for six months now.
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it.
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Te a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway
Good to see you talking no deal brexit HY after ruling it out up until now.
I am not, I expect the Commons would vote to contest the EU elections and lengthy extension over No Deal and ultimately settle on BINO
Oh. Thought you were back in the real world, where Parliament can’t negotiate with EU just the executive.
I don’t want to be cheeky, but I am saying you are not admitting the assumptions you are basing your view on. You are assuming EU will always grant extensions to avoid no deal? You are assuming whichever party leader in power will always go to Brussels and beg for extension and participation in EU elections, in other words always put country before party?
And the executive leader, May, has already said the Commons has voted against No Deal and if it will not back her Deal the only alternative is to contest the EU Parliament elections and lengthy extension and Tusk has also recommended the UK be allowed to contest the EU elections and extension if the Commons votes for it which they would over No Deal.
As I said below the only way we likely get No Deal is if Boris or Raab win a general election on a No Deal and try for unicorn Canada FTA Deal ticket if May's Deal loses and she loses a VONC as a result
OK, so just catching up, what's the PB consensus - is May's "separate the WA and PD from the MV" idea (so many acronyms) genius, insane, desperate or does it not matter either way cos it's not going to get voted through anyway?
The latter, and IMO it's not so much an "idea" as a last resort to get out of Bercow's straightjacket.
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
Speaking of Bercow, I've always been ambivalent about him but last nite I had the greatest sympathy with his attempts to contain rude and unruly behaviour. Was that Christopher Chope chuntering away while Letwin was trying to speak? And who are the loudmouths who sit by the Speaker's chair and yelled like loutish soccer fans when Soubry was asked to speak?
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.
I lack sympathy for him on that regard because he indulges in it just as much as they do, and appears to take great pleasure in the opportunities to test out his new insults and put downs. I think he would be disappointed if they acted differently. He doesn't contribute to improving the tone of the debate, he helps set the tone.
Yeah, I can see that he kind of asks for it, but Chope repeatedly interrupting Letwin? The thugs grinning as they shouted down Soubry? This was Parliament's chance to show its mettle, to show it was up to the challenge?
How do you think it looked to the rest of the world?
I don't care how it looks to the rest of the world, some places are even worse with actual fistfights and the like. I very much don't like how parliamentarians conduct themselves generally, although a certain level of rowdy debate is not in itself a bad thing, and don't support the examples you provide, but it is not that Bercow asks for it, it is that I think he's a hypocrite in condemning it because he enjoys it so much. It doesn't make the behaviours of others ok, but it puts his own theatrics in context.
This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement. Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
To me Barnier comes across as keen to go to no deal. Every sentence is variation on its up to London, he will simply change it to its all London’s fault. Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?
I sense Tusk keen to keep fighting to keep us in. But it’s not decision for commission, and I sense Germany and France have decided to let us fall out, so they can pick up the pieces and move on.
There are reports that we have got to the point where the EU thinks the cost to them of us leaving with No Deal is now little moe than the cost of us staying, especially if a long extension is involved.
This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement. Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
To me Barnier comes across as keen to go to no deal. Every sentence is variation on its up to London, he will simply change it to its all London’s fault. Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?
I sense Tusk keen to keep fighting to keep us in. But it’s not decision for commission, and I sense Germany and France have decided to let us fall out, so they can pick up the pieces and move on.
I think you make a valid point. France and Germany could see no deal as an opportunity for them to steal business and the city from London . They want to pick away our corpse. Especially the french
I don’t see any reason not to take the figures pretty much at face value. The various analyses of the data have strikingly shown very normal patterns.
1%ish so only 50,000 odd. I thought it’d be much more
The main thing to take away is there are an awful lot of very steamed up Remainers. Obvious from the polling but external indicators are always helpful.
Nah, the Russian bots are pro Brexit, they are the ones attacking the petition.
I'm unsure that's correct. You need to start from what the Russians want. They do not directly want Brexit, but they want chaos in their opponents, which are the EU and, more directly, the UK. It might well be in their interests to encourage one side or the other, or even both, at any one time.
Comments
spend time with your wife and child and stop wasting it on politics
Meanwhile Callaghan is arguing that far from offering change Thatcher just wants to take us back to 1970. Not a line that has aged well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vfs9ncmHC8
If the people of the UK vote to prohibit the sale of GMOs, shouldn't that be their right?*
* Personally, I'm a fan.
Hearing Thomas's Welsh tones as Speaker brings back memories
Btw, the SNP seemed to be having a good war to date but did they stuff up by not supporting Clarke's option yesterday?
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1111352698207653888
Labour 'rebels' come out to confirm that they still won't vote for the WA yet, with a comment that May is jolly rude to them to boot?
If parliament coalesces around a referendum, we get a referendum without it being her fault which is good for her.
If parliament coalesces around a soft Brexit, it provides an incentive for hard Brexiteers to back a Deal/Remain referendum which is also good for her.
May is not a dictator - and she is being held back by parliament. That *should* be a good feature of the system ...
I had forgotten what a good speaker Callaghan was. Now Steel for the Libs.
The world has been watching these debates with great interest. It wasn't exactly an edifying spectacle last nite.
I really don't think they've wargamed this. I think they are just stumbling through day by day - for a few hours this week they saw some hope as the ERG wavered, before the DUP killed the last remaining hope. WIthout them, there is no hope at all, and there's surely nothing more to offer them, so it seems more just a procedural activity to keep people focused that the WA does still have 230-270 votes, which is more than many options.
The son and wife of close friends of the family were blessed with twin boys. The boys room was fitted with cameras and he and his wife would often pass time enchanted by their growing infants and their sibling ways.
Dad would also sit in their room watching the boys sleep but once fell asleep himself, only to wake up some time later to see his boys watching him, cooing and smiling to each other and him. All caught on camera.
It is a precious 10 minutes or so of family film and when Mrs JackW and I saw it there was tears of joy from her indoors. I might have blubbed too ....
I think it is true though to say that it's the imminent deadlines that will focus the minds within the HoC.
But she was never going to do that, and she won't resign unless forced to.
Barnier still had ambition two years ago but knows he’s finished now?
"Your MP voted to block Brexit 3 times...."
That reminds me of this: warning: unbearable cuteness:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX_3Jj2Hqkk
At least I have heard of Yanis...
But here's the big difference.
The Conservative Party of 2019 holds all the rural seats.
Though it does seem as if the biggest switchers to Remain are the WWC, so might well help Labour
https://www.survation.com/what-does-the-british-public-now-think-about-brexit/
Now the SNP
Whatever follows is uncertain but there is nothing uncertaain about the 12th April, it is mandated to the following
TM deal
No deal
The rest are all subject to us taking part in the EU elections commencing 12th April
Referendum
GE
Extension but has to be for a specific reason
Revoke
https://fullfact.org/europe/possible-repeatedly-sign-parliamentary-petition/
500,000?
Macron will probably be sat on, so this is unlikely, but still...
The tax deductible for nannies and waistcoat manufacturers are looking good kids.
I don’t want to be cheeky, but I am saying you are not admitting the assumptions you are basing your view on. You are assuming EU will always grant extensions to avoid no deal? You are assuming whichever party leader in power will always go to Brussels and beg for extension and participation in EU elections, in other words always put country before party?
Long extension is the first line of defence. Revocation the second, either forced upon the government, or by bringing it down.
Sounds worse then Dementia Tax to me
How do you think it looked to the rest of the world?
The UK's leverage in such a situation would be (and what an joy it would be) to BLAME THE FRENCH. (1) It could well be Macron's reported obstructiveness that causes an 'accidental' no-deal, (2) of the EU27 it would be France where the no-deal hit would be felt most keenly (the Irish border of course staying quite miraculously open), and (3) Macron's not looking too hot in the Euro polling, below LePen for six months now.
As I said below the only way we likely get No Deal is if Boris or Raab win a general election on a No Deal and try for unicorn Canada FTA Deal ticket if May's Deal loses and she loses a VONC as a result