politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove
Comments
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HYUFD said:
I fancy Hancock if May goes if the Tories stay in Government, Boris if the new leader is picked in opposition.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Remember if May's Deal passes tomorrow as a result of Labour MPs from Leave seats backing the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure Brexit but leaving the PD to be decided later then the DUP will still back a VONC and we will have a snap general election perhaps even with May leading the Tories.
If the Deal fails again No 10 is clear May will stay and perhaps call a snap general election to get a majority for her Deal anyway
I’d like to see someone from the back benches myself - Sunak, Cleverley, even Mercer. Won’t happen though. Not for a party supposedly in Gov. Don’t see any merit in Hancock myself - I’d prefer Raab to Hancock.0 -
If it is the majority view many conservatives will be on board and as far as the ERG are concerned I could not care lessBenpointer said:
Yes, you might have a point. Mind you won't it go ballistic anyway?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do not agree Ben. She did not have the space then.Benpointer said:
If so, it will represent an enormous political cock-up on her part; she could have agreed the Deal with a confirmatory referendum back in December (and stayed on btw).Big_G_NorthWales said:I think this is clever politics by TM
Putting the WDA in front of the HOC gives the opportunity for the ERG, DUP and labour to defeat it heavily, thereby ending the deal and leaving on the 22nd May
There are many comments on what happens next but most of them ignore the fact that what happens next is the 12th April and the ERG and DUP dream of no deal
There has to be an agreement next week in the HOC that is actually douable, and has sufficient support to put in place the legislation to stop no deal. There is no point in saying labour want a GE and should support a second referendum as that decision would be out of time
The HOC needs to agree an extension to the 12th April that accepts we elect MEPs in May and has a proposition that the EU can agree to, including a referendum, as the EU will not permit this to continue
Today has seen many in the EU expressing horror at us being in their new Parliament and the demands for no deal by the EU are at the highest level so far
Next monday needs to see the elimination of the amendments until a majority view emerges and TM creates the political space to accept the verdict, as she cannot be sacked now she is going
Could TM final act be to agree to the deal with a confirmation referendum and then put in place her succession
Fantasy or possibility ?
The conservative party would have gone crackers0 -
I doubt youd get your fingers back if you shook hands with boris.IanB2 said:
If I had to lend one of them some money I think I'd have more chance of seeing it again with GoveAmpfieldAndy said:
No one like a turncoat or those who stab others in the back - no matter what Johnson’s failings. Gove has shown he can’t be trusted.OblitusSumMe said:
Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.0 -
If Labour get in, we’ll all have much bigger problems.Benpointer said:
Pah the big farmers (i.e. landowners) will see their EU subsidies replaced by similar from any Conservative govt.AmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Whereas if Labour get in they might be wwishing we were still in the EU!0 -
Not sure about that, it is the Withdrawal Agreement which sets the terms of the transition and its passage is needed for a transition period and to make the backstop legally binding.TheWhiteRabbit said:"There's almost no chance of getting out of the backstop ever without the political declaration being attached."
Bridgen doesn't understand does he?
We will only go into transition with both the WA and PD signed and ratified by means of resolution. So no backstop without a PD.
The PD merely gives a starting point for negotiations on the future relationship during the transition
https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-timeline/0 -
Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.0 -
Congratulations.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many though it would be.
Never ever change the nappy, let your other half do that.0 -
Liz Truss is not a candidate?
That. Is. A. Disgrace.0 -
I think the confirmatory amendment would have to be written into the MV or whatever passes the WA in the style of "...this House approves the WA subject to a confirmatory public vote but if that public vote rejects the WA the government will revoke Artivcle 50"JosiasJessop said:
IMV either (any) choice inn a referendum has to be passed by parliament (both houses) *before* it is held.Black_Rook said:
The assumption is that the EU will allow an extension for a referendum *IF* the proposition is Deal vs Remain. This gives the EU certainty, with two outcomes either of which they can accept, eliminating No Deal.Gallowgate said:@Big_G_NorthWales and what happens if the public says ‘no’ to the deal in this ‘confirmatory referendum’? We’re back to square one in interpreting the result. Does it mean the country wants no deal, a different deal or remain?
Awful idea all round.
A referendum in which rejection puts us back to square one is a non-starter. The EU won't swallow it, and all of the MPs who are backing a referendum are doing it with the express intention of persuading the public to vote to stay in.
In other words, parliament passes both yes and no results, subject to the result of the referendum. Only then is the referendum held.
To add extra complexity, both results would also need to be agreed with the EU, so we know neither yes nor no campaign is selling unicorn flatulence to parliament and the public - as leave did last time.
This will almost certainly be a very loooonnnnnggggg and convoluted process, and is therefore sadly improbable. It also requires intelligence within the government and parliament as a whole, which makes it impossible.
Or if you prefer "... the government will leave the EU with no deal" but this latter version will not get the support of the HoC imo.
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I think the rest of the PB indicated :Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the restJackW said:
You lost me after the first sentence ....Big_G_NorthWales said:I think this is clever politics by TM
Putting the WDA in front of the HOC gives the opportunity for the ERG, DUP and labour to defeat it heavily, thereby ending the deal and leaving on the 22nd May
There are many comments on what happens next but most of them ignore the fact that what happens next is the 12th April and the ERG and DUP dream of no deal
There has to be an agreement next week in the HOC that is actually douable, and has sufficient support to put in place the legislation to stop no deal. There is no point in saying labour want a GE and should support a second referendum as that decision would be out of time
The HOC needs to agree an extension to the 12th April that accepts we elect MEPs in May and has a proposition that the EU can agree to, including a referendum, as the EU will not permit this to continue
Today has seen many in the EU expressing horror at us being in their new Parliament and the demands for no deal by the EU are at the highest level so far
Next monday needs to see the elimination of the amendments until a majority view emerges and TM creates the political space to accept the verdict, as she cannot be sacked now she is going
Could TM final act be to agree to the deal with a confirmation referendum and then put in place her succession
Fantasy or possibility ?
"Computer Says No"
Not sure the Maybot hair suits though ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJQ3TM-p2QI0 -
Many congrats. No tips - we went down a similar route over many years but without the same success at the end. Enjoy your good fortune.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
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Just wonderful news and my wife and my heartiest congratulationsmurali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
As both parents and grand parents my wife and I would say to both of you, and your family, to enjoy every single minute of every day and forget brexit, it does not matter, your family time does and you will be greatly enriched in the days and years to come0 -
@murali_s, congratulations on the birth of your new child. Children are a great source of joy and comfort in old age. @Casino_Royale 's wife has just given birth to his daughter so he will no doubt have tips for you.
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So many congratulations. Hope mother and child are well (and not too frazzled). Sorry to hear you had problems, but you must be so happy now.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
As for tips:
*) Muslins. Buy loads of muslins. We were told six would be enough, but we ended up with dozens either hanging on the line, scattered around the house or tucked into the back of my trousers. Muslins are so useful in the first year.
*) Enjoy it whilst you can. Take every moment you can with them, for they change so rapidly. Our little 'un is approaching five, and I miss him being younger, even whilst I want him to grow up.
*) Don;t get too concerned. We were concerned by every tiny thing, and they all turned out okay in the end. Keep a watching brief, but be aware that 99% of your concerns will be unfounded.
Again, congrats.0 -
Deleted0
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It was aimed at Ben then, so he should be mortified.IanB2 said:
I think the blockquotes might have been off in the thread. It was aimed at whoever was suggesting people needed to appreciate how Europe should be the biggest issue in their lives.Benpointer said:
Perceptive and accurate. But I assumed @IanB2 was referring to @Casino_Royale... else I'd have been mortified!Sean_F said:
I don't think @benoointer is a Tory.IanB2 said:
Lol @ the usual Tory activist trying to persuade everyone to get worked up about Europe rather than trivia like housing, health and transport.Benpointer said:
Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?Casino_Royale said:FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.
That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.
I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.
I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.
Perhaps less of the hairtrigger from you might save you some embarrassment.0 -
For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.0 -
I do, but I suspect the emphasis that you and I would place on that as to why might be slightly different.Benpointer said:
Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?Casino_Royale said:FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.
That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.
I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.
I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.
Whatever happens over the next few months (years) this isn’t going to go away as an issue.0 -
40 years ago today!IanB2 said:For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.0 -
I'll let it pass. It won't divert me from my lifelong record of never having voted Tory!Casino_Royale said:
It was aimed at Ben then, so he should be mortified.IanB2 said:
I think the blockquotes might have been off in the thread. It was aimed at whoever was suggesting people needed to appreciate how Europe should be the biggest issue in their lives.Benpointer said:
Perceptive and accurate. But I assumed @IanB2 was referring to @Casino_Royale... else I'd have been mortified!Sean_F said:
I don't think @benoointer is a Tory.IanB2 said:
Lol @ the usual Tory activist trying to persuade everyone to get worked up about Europe rather than trivia like housing, health and transport.Benpointer said:
Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?Casino_Royale said:FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.
That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.
I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.
I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.
Perhaps less of the hairtrigger from you might save you some embarrassment. 0 -
I would be quite happy to see farmers subsidies, along with tariffs and NTBs scrapped.AmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Cheaper food, lower taxes. What is not to like?0 -
Warm congratulations. I wish you and Mrs murali_s great joy of your new arrival.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.0 -
Sean_F said:
It's easy to predict to the DUP's response to any proposal.kle4 said:Aren't the DUP constantly telling us how they won't change position, what else exactly do they think is changing? As he says he expects no rabbits, so why not just say they will never ever vote for anything May is currently proposing?
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1111336132195897344
No.
If it were possible to win over the 31 opposition MP's who oppose a 2nd referendum, I'd say f*ck the DUP.
It’s remarkable they’ve cooperated over the last two years, to be honest.0 -
No embarrassment - it is the attitude of a fair few Tory activists I have encountered over the years. Perhaps Ben is embarrassed!Casino_Royale said:
It was aimed at Ben then, so he should be mortified.IanB2 said:
I think the blockquotes might have been off in the thread. It was aimed at whoever was suggesting people needed to appreciate how Europe should be the biggest issue in their lives.Benpointer said:
Perceptive and accurate. But I assumed @IanB2 was referring to @Casino_Royale... else I'd have been mortified!Sean_F said:
I don't think @benoointer is a Tory.IanB2 said:
Lol @ the usual Tory activist trying to persuade everyone to get worked up about Europe rather than trivia like housing, health and transport.Benpointer said:
Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?Casino_Royale said:FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.
That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.
I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.
I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.
Perhaps less of the hairtrigger from you might save you some embarrassment.0 -
The news you've all been waiting for. The entries 25 strong for the nutters steeplechase
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1111351553363980288
PS remind not to vote for Raab when the time comes.0 -
JosiasJessop said:
So many congratulations. Hope mother and child are well (and not too frazzled). Sorry to hear you had problems, but you must be so happy now.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
As for tips:
*) Muslins. Buy loads of muslins. We were told six would be enough, but we ended up with dozens either hanging on the line, scattered around the house or tucked into the back of my trousers. Muslins are so useful in the first year.
*) Enjoy it whilst you can. Take every moment you can with them, for they change so rapidly. Our little 'un is approaching five, and I miss him being younger, even whilst I want him to grow up.
*) Don;t get too concerned. We were concerned by every tiny thing, and they all turned out okay in the end. Keep a watching brief, but be aware that 99% of your concerns will be unfounded.
Again, congrats.
Bloody hell! Was I the only one to read that number 1) as Muslims initially?! *Shudders*0 -
I hate anything to do with poo - always have, always will. I could never be a nurse if it meant I had to wipe someone else's backside. Therefore my biggest concern about having a baby was about nappies, given that I was to be the primary carer. How would I cope?TheScreamingEagles said:
Congratulations.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many though it would be.
Never ever change the nappy, let your other half do that.
And you know what? It didn't matter. I just got on and did it. True, it wasn't pleasant, and there were some interesting colours and odours - particularly early on - but I just dealt with it. I didn't have much choice.
Real men change nappies.
(Actually, one of the realest, hardest men I know only ever changed two nappies for his kids- but that's because he was in farming, and as he was always dirty his wife thought it unhygienic for him to be changing them. I thought that was a brilliant way out of it.)0 -
I just watched last nights Peston. I didn't think she was that good. Lightweight for a Minister let alone PM. Her views seem to have moved since her SDP days as well.Philip_Thompson said:Liz Truss is not a candidate?
That. Is. A. Disgrace.0 -
Congratulations! You must be so proud!murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.0 -
True but BoJo has shot his bolt with the true-believer membership has he not?Norm said:The news you've all been waiting for. The entries 25 strong for the nutters steeplechase
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1111351553363980288
PS remind not to vote for Raab when the time comes.0 -
For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.0
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I shudder to think why I'd have muslims tucked into the back of my trousers. I mean, I have kinks, but that's going a bit far ...Benpointer said:
Bloody hell! Was I the only one to read that number 1) as Muslims initially?! *Shudders*JosiasJessop said:
So many congratulations. Hope mother and child are well (and not too frazzled). Sorry to hear you had problems, but you must be so happy now.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
As for tips:
*) Muslins. Buy loads of muslins. We were told six would be enough, but we ended up with dozens either hanging on the line, scattered around the house or tucked into the back of my trousers. Muslins are so useful in the first year.
*) Enjoy it whilst you can. Take every moment you can with them, for they change so rapidly. Our little 'un is approaching five, and I miss him being younger, even whilst I want him to grow up.
*) Don;t get too concerned. We were concerned by every tiny thing, and they all turned out okay in the end. Keep a watching brief, but be aware that 99% of your concerns will be unfounded.
Again, congrats. 0 -
New Survation poll finds 56% of Scots would be more likely to vote for independence if the UK Leaves the EU without a Deal
https://www.progressscotland.org/research/first-progress-scotland-poll-shows-brexit-impact0 -
Congratulations on the new arrivalmurali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.0 -
The investment consensus seems to be that the US is the most overvalued. But then the consensus is often wrong.viewcode said:For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.
0 -
Congrats!murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
Tips? Enjoy it and take loads of photos. They change so quickly0 -
The EU have also “offered” to make the PD more binding to get the WA passed.HYUFD said:
Not sure about that, it is the Withdrawal Agreement which sets the terms of the transition and its passage is needed for a transition period and to make the backstop legally binding.TheWhiteRabbit said:"There's almost no chance of getting out of the backstop ever without the political declaration being attached."
Bridgen doesn't understand does he?
We will only go into transition with both the WA and PD signed and ratified by means of resolution. So no backstop without a PD.
The PD merely gives a starting point for negotiations on the future relationship during the transition
https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-timeline/
In other words, to avoid a Tory (or Tory led) government ratting on a full CU if that’s the basis on which the WA passes.0 -
I was mentally prepared to change nappies, what I wasn't expecting was for him to do a poo and wee wee during a nappy change.JosiasJessop said:
I hate anything to do with poo - always have, always will. I could never be a nurse if it meant I had to wipe someone else's backside. Therefore my biggest concern about having a baby was about nappies, given that I was to be the primary carer. How would I cope?TheScreamingEagles said:
Congratulations.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many though it would be.
Never ever change the nappy, let your other half do that.
And you know what? It didn't matter. I just got on and did it. True, it wasn't pleasant, and there were some interesting colours and odours - particularly early on - but I just dealt with it. I didn't have much choice.
Real men change nappies.
(Actually, one of the realest, hardest men I know only ever changed two nappies for his kids- but that's because he was in farming, and as he was always dirty his wife thought it unhygienic for him to be changing them. I thought that was a brilliant way out of it.)
I think I spent the next week in the shower and googling how to put your kids up for adoption.0 -
If the backstop is such a big deal for Raab why did he ever take the Brexit secretary job!?Norm said:The news you've all been waiting for. The entries 25 strong for the nutters steeplechase
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1111351553363980288
PS remind not to vote for Raab when the time comes.
So, anyway, time for predictions
25 absolute core ERG at least. 10 DUP. I'm guessing 20 sundry other Tories against (Grievers, a few more ERGers, and a few others who had backed MV2 but are now focused on getting a better, softer option). I'll be bold and suggest 1 or 2 more Labour votes, but that might be proven wrong and it could be fewer than the 3.
So an aye vote in the mid to late 260s, majority against of around 100ish, with May allies once again trying to suggest 'under 100' as their margin for victory..0 -
Congratulations! Fox jr was our last roll of the dice at IVF after 3 years of torment. What a relief and pleasure.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
The important thing is that babies are their own people from the word go, not a mini Mum or Dad. Don't expect them to either like or dislike what you did at the same age, or to live life vicarously through them. Enjoy what they bring to the family and thrive on the unexpected. Rediscover the small pleasures of childhood. Fox jr would spend hours throwing rocks into the sea. Once you get into it you rediscover the fun of it.
0 -
@murali_s
Keep an eye on the wife for the next few weeks !!!!!!!!!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-477291180 -
Nice of the EU, but the problem is parliament doesn't want to pass anything, no matter how binding or not things are.Casino_Royale said:
The EU have also “offered” to make the PD more binding to get the WA passed.HYUFD said:
Not sure about that, it is the Withdrawal Agreement which sets the terms of the transition and its passage is needed for a transition period and to make the backstop legally binding.TheWhiteRabbit said:"There's almost no chance of getting out of the backstop ever without the political declaration being attached."
Bridgen doesn't understand does he?
We will only go into transition with both the WA and PD signed and ratified by means of resolution. So no backstop without a PD.
The PD merely gives a starting point for negotiations on the future relationship during the transition
https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-timeline/
In other words, to avoid a Tory (or Tory led) government ratting on a full CU if that’s the basis on which the WA passes.0 -
Congratulations!murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
I’m a 2 month old Dad myself.
My advice is to ignore everyone else’s advice.
It’s your journey to explore with yourself and your wife (or partner). It’s not that bad, one heck of an experience and just enjoy every moment of it.
I have!0 -
Given that Bercow has really boxed them into designing a different approach in order to be able to table the MV again, I would have thought MV4 is now all but impossible.kle4 said:
If the backstop is such a big deal for Raab why did he ever take the Brexit secretary job!?Norm said:The news you've all been waiting for. The entries 25 strong for the nutters steeplechase
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1111351553363980288
PS remind not to vote for Raab when the time comes.
So, anyway, time for predictions
25 absolute core ERG at least. 10 DUP. I'm guessing 20 sundry other Tories against (Grievers, a few more ERGers, and a few others who had backed MV2 but are now focused on getting a better, softer option). I'll be bold and suggest 1 or 2 more Labour votes, but that might be proven wrong and it could be fewer than the 3.
So an aye vote in the mid to late 260s, majority against of around 100ish, with May allies once again trying to suggest 'under 100' as their margin for victory..
Back in 1979 Callaghan is beginning his response. The quality of debate was good back then, and in between laughter and hear hears there is a politeness and quietness that has gone from Parliament nowadays.
0 -
No surprise that Labour are opposing the WA tomorrow (sans PD) regardless.
I wonder how many rebels they’ll have.0 -
I fail to see how a commitment to free speech is compatible with haranguing a charity for advertising on a site one disapproves of.Sunil_Prasannan said:Rachel Riley - the best thing to come from Essex after Depeche Mode (um, and Blur!)
0 -
Hancock for a half hour?Benpointer said:
Boris Johnson - for 6 weeks?Fenman said:Pub Quiz question 2030. Who was PM between Theresa May and Layla Moran?
0 -
Kids grow up so quickly these days but that's amazing !!!!!! .....Casino_Royale said:
Congratulations!murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
I’m a 2 month old Dad myself.
0 -
High home ownership rates are no guarantee of a happy population, or a booming economy. One of the big problems Italy has had is that house prices have been declining (albeit gently) since the late 1990s. The consequence of this is that Italians see their personal balance sheets shrink every month, and it discourages spending and risk taking.HYUFD said:
It makes the point Spain for example has 80% home ownership and 20% unemployment compared to Germany which has less than 5% unemployment and lower home ownership. It also has looked at US states and found stated with lower home ownership and more private renting had lower unemployment since 1950MaxPB said:
Load of bollocks, reports by the parasites for the parasites.HYUFD said:New report says what we really need is a high-quality private rental market like Switzerland and Germany not higher home ownership, that would also improve flexibility in the economy and and keep UK unemployment down
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-home-ownership-and-what-it-really-costs-the-workforce-a4103281.html0 -
Congrats, and good work. For a new baby, sleep is the key. Yours, your o/h's, and baby's:murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
1. Both of you don't need to get up. One of you can feed, burp, change and rock MiniMurali, and you don't have to both get up out of some misguided solidarity. A full cycle of sleep for one of you is much more important.
2. Go to sleep immediately MiniMurali does. No need to watch them sleep, they'll tell you if there's a problem.
3. Get MM used to sleeping in their crib, as opposed to on you or next to you. A Sleepyhead is about eighty quid but works wonders.
4. Later, get MM used to feeding without properly waking up, so you can leave them lying down whie you feed them and they drift straight off to sleep again with going through the Putting The Baby Down Without It Waking Up And Going Apeshit routine.
Why not read Sean T's old Speccy piece about how brexit is like having kids?0 -
Principle. He new what a disaster Boris would be for the country.Theuniondivvie said:
Do people think Gove performed this service on some point of principle or was it down to a chat with his missus about how the association was damaging The Gover's long term prospects?OblitusSumMe said:
Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
'But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail.'
0 -
Yeah, poo, wee and sick are fine when you get used to them.JosiasJessop said:
I hate anything to do with poo - always have, always will. I could never be a nurse if it meant I had to wipe someone else's backside. Therefore my biggest concern about having a baby was about nappies, given that I was to be the primary carer. How would I cope?TheScreamingEagles said:
Congratulations.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many though it would be.
Never ever change the nappy, let your other half do that.
And you know what? It didn't matter. I just got on and did it. True, it wasn't pleasant, and there were some interesting colours and odours - particularly early on - but I just dealt with it. I didn't have much choice.
Real men change nappies.
(Actually, one of the realest, hardest men I know only ever changed two nappies for his kids- but that's because he was in farming, and as he was always dirty his wife thought it unhygienic for him to be changing them. I thought that was a brilliant way out of it.)
Never go anywhere with out a muslin in the first year. Essential kit!
Be strict about bed time, and if they cannot sleep, stay with them reading soporiphic stories. Once they are in bed, they cannot come down until morning! If you let them come down you will never get another quiet night. Wake them up for a feed before you go to bed, that way you should sleep at least four hours.
0 -
Before Parliament was televised, of course, so it’s just radio.IanB2 said:For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.
I suspect a niche taste, but interesting for us buffs as you say.0 -
As long as we don't crash out accidentally, sterling will strengthen. So I am waiting to invest in overseas shares. Strong sterling will buy more.IanB2 said:
The investment consensus seems to be that the US is the most overvalued. But then the consensus is often wrong.viewcode said:For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.
I have been buying UK shares since last November. They are historically cheap and very attractive to overseas investors who can buy at weak sterling prices. As sterling strengthens the UK market rises in $ terms, I'll soon sell my UK shares before overseas investors cash in their profits.
This is all predicated on us not crashing out. If we crash out I won't invest at all but sit on my cash.0 -
Oh I agree, and I think they knew that even before Bercow since they'd delayed things from the originally leaked dates for an MV3, when the whispers were the plan was for MV4 all along, I presume because they knew they'd only get one chance to pass it. Tomorrow is that chance, official MV3 or not. Were it not for the 22 May offer being dependent on something passing by the weekend, I doubt they'd have brought anything.IanB2 said:
Given that Bercow has really boxed them into designing a different approach in order to be able to table the MV again, I would have thought MV4 is now all but impossible.kle4 said:
If the backstop is such a big deal for Raab why did he ever take the Brexit secretary job!?Norm said:The news you've all been waiting for. The entries 25 strong for the nutters steeplechase
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1111351553363980288
PS remind not to vote for Raab when the time comes.
So, anyway, time for predictions
25 absolute core ERG at least. 10 DUP. I'm guessing 20 sundry other Tories against (Grievers, a few more ERGers, and a few others who had backed MV2 but are now focused on getting a better, softer option). I'll be bold and suggest 1 or 2 more Labour votes, but that might be proven wrong and it could be fewer than the 3.
So an aye vote in the mid to late 260s, majority against of around 100ish, with May allies once again trying to suggest 'under 100' as their margin for victory..
I assume, therefore, that in addition to the vote being to help blame Labour in the event of no deal, its purpose is to show it has more support now, so that whatever is voted on on Monday has to do even better or they will at least argue the WA should go to referendum or whatever.
0 -
He is not trusted less for than of itself but for that then declaring himself a leadership candidate when he repeatedly denied he’d stand.Richard_Tyndall said:
Principle. He new what a disaster Boris would be for the country.Theuniondivvie said:
Do people think Gove performed this service on some point of principle or was it down to a chat with his missus about how the association was damaging The Gover's long term prospects?OblitusSumMe said:
Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
'But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail.'0 -
I am with you, and on the other wise of viewcode's trade. Both of us are gambling on no no deal. As you say.Barnesian said:
As long as we don't crash out accidentally, sterling will strengthen. So I am waiting to invest in overseas shares. Strong sterling will buy more.IanB2 said:
The investment consensus seems to be that the US is the most overvalued. But then the consensus is often wrong.viewcode said:For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.
I have been buying UK shares since last November. They are historically cheap and very attractive to overseas investors who can buy at weak sterling prices. As sterling strengthens the UK market rises in $ terms, I'll soon sell my UK shares before overseas investors cash in their profits.
This is all predicated on us not crashing out. If we crash out I won't invest at all but sit on my cash.0 -
Enjoying dipping in to the 1979 confidence debate on BBC Parliament.. Callaghan didn't pull any punches. And when he said the SNP and Libs were walking into a trap, he was right.0
-
Just passed the Turkeys voting for Christmas gag.Casino_Royale said:
Before Parliament was televised, of course, so it’s just radio.IanB2 said:For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.
I suspect a niche taste, but interesting for us buffs as you say.0 -
40 years ago we were on the verge of the Thatcher revolution following a collapsing government.IanB2 said:For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.
Now we could be on the verge of a Jezza revolution following a collapsing government.0 -
Callaghan sounds rather competent, commanding and statesmanlike to me. Rather surprising.
Different breed back then.0 -
All leadership contenders repeatedly deny they'd stand.AmpfieldAndy said:
He is not trusted less for than of itself but for that then declaring himself a leadership candidate when he repeatedly denied he’d stand.Richard_Tyndall said:
Principle. He new what a disaster Boris would be for the country.Theuniondivvie said:
Do people think Gove performed this service on some point of principle or was it down to a chat with his missus about how the association was damaging The Gover's long term prospects?OblitusSumMe said:
Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
'But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail.'0 -
Very many congratulations. It completely changes your life. Get as much sleep as you can - you're going to need it.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many thought it would be.
I vividly remember the birth of my eldest son 49 years ago. I was dazed and euphoric. My wife even more so. I went home and lit a cigar and grinned broadly before I told family and friends.0 -
Our little 'un peed into his own mouth. I *wish* I'd had a camera when he'd done that. Anecdotally it's quite common for baby boys. It might be more difficult for baby girls...TheScreamingEagles said:
I was mentally prepared to change nappies, what I wasn't expecting was for him to do a poo and wee wee during a nappy change.JosiasJessop said:
I hate anything to do with poo - always have, always will. I could never be a nurse if it meant I had to wipe someone else's backside. Therefore my biggest concern about having a baby was about nappies, given that I was to be the primary carer. How would I cope?TheScreamingEagles said:
Congratulations.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many though it would be.
Never ever change the nappy, let your other half do that.
And you know what? It didn't matter. I just got on and did it. True, it wasn't pleasant, and there were some interesting colours and odours - particularly early on - but I just dealt with it. I didn't have much choice.
Real men change nappies.
(Actually, one of the realest, hardest men I know only ever changed two nappies for his kids- but that's because he was in farming, and as he was always dirty his wife thought it unhygienic for him to be changing them. I thought that was a brilliant way out of it.)
I think I spent the next week in the shower and googling how to put your kids up for adoption.0 -
viewcode said:
I fail to see how a commitment to free speech is compatible with haranguing a charity for advertising on a site one disapproves of.Sunil_Prasannan said:Rachel Riley - the best thing to come from Essex after Depeche Mode (um, and Blur!)
No reasonable person could construe her tweet as “haranguing”. If you really value free speech, why can’t you value hers.0 -
Not sure about that.Philip_Thompson said:
All leadership contenders repeatedly deny they'd stand.AmpfieldAndy said:
He is not trusted less for than of itself but for that then declaring himself a leadership candidate when he repeatedly denied he’d stand.Richard_Tyndall said:
Principle. He new what a disaster Boris would be for the country.Theuniondivvie said:
Do people think Gove performed this service on some point of principle or was it down to a chat with his missus about how the association was damaging The Gover's long term prospects?OblitusSumMe said:
Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
'But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail.'0 -
Generation WWII.Casino_Royale said:Callaghan sounds rather competent, commanding and statesmanlike to me. Rather surprising.
Different breed back then.0 -
Thanks all for your kind words and advice.
And @Big_G, you are right, I couldn't give a monkeys about Brexit right now, just in this wonderful zone with my my family now - is that selfish or natural? - just don't know!
And @Casino_Royale, congrats! Beat me to it!0 -
Londoners are inclined to remember him as a genial Mayor whose pro-EU views chimed with the general consensus of the voting public.AmpfieldAndy said:
He is not trusted less for than of itself but for that then declaring himself a leadership candidate when he repeatedly denied he’d stand.Richard_Tyndall said:
Principle. He new what a disaster Boris would be for the country.Theuniondivvie said:
Do people think Gove performed this service on some point of principle or was it down to a chat with his missus about how the association was damaging The Gover's long term prospects?OblitusSumMe said:
Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
'But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail.'0 -
Can I argue with that - unlike large parts of the rest of the UK my house is now worth the same (or less) than it was in 2004 due to the council allowing enough houses to be built to support the rising population.rcs1000 said:
High home ownership rates are no guarantee of a happy population, or a booming economy. One of the big problems Italy has had is that house prices have been declining (albeit gently) since the late 1990s. The consequence of this is that Italians see their personal balance sheets shrink every month, and it discourages spending and risk taking.HYUFD said:
It makes the point Spain for example has 80% home ownership and 20% unemployment compared to Germany which has less than 5% unemployment and lower home ownership. It also has looked at US states and found stated with lower home ownership and more private renting had lower unemployment since 1950MaxPB said:
Load of bollocks, reports by the parasites for the parasites.HYUFD said:New report says what we really need is a high-quality private rental market like Switzerland and Germany not higher home ownership, that would also improve flexibility in the economy and and keep UK unemployment down
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-home-ownership-and-what-it-really-costs-the-workforce-a4103281.html
That means that others can afford to live where I do without the worry of excessive house prices. It's nice to go out and about and see people enjoying a night out - which makes a change from the South East where it's usually retired baby boomers and other seriously rich people eating out.
Heck my brother and Sister in law earn £100k between them and still only eat out when others are paying (house prices are a killer if you didn't get on the ladder before 2002)...0 -
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!
0 -
There is also the question of whether to put the WA up for Monday's IV2. Nicky Morgan on Peston said it had been considered by Cabinet. If it does better they may do so.kle4 said:
Oh I agree, and I think they knew that even before Bercow since they'd delayed things from the originally leaked dates for an MV3, when the whispers were the plan was for MV4 all along, I presume because they knew they'd only get one chance to pass it. Tomorrow is that chance, official MV3 or not. Were it not for the 22 May offer being dependent on something passing by the weekend, I doubt they'd have brought anything.IanB2 said:
Given that Bercow has really boxed them into designing a different approach in order to be able to table the MV again, I would have thought MV4 is now all but impossible.kle4 said:
If the backstop is such a big deal for Raab why did he ever take the Brexit secretary job!?Norm said:The news you've all been waiting for. The entries 25 strong for the nutters steeplechase
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1111351553363980288
PS remind not to vote for Raab when the time comes.
So, anyway, time for predictions
25 absolute core ERG at least. 10 DUP. I'm guessing 20 sundry other Tories against (Grievers, a few more ERGers, and a few others who had backed MV2 but are now focused on getting a better, softer option). I'll be bold and suggest 1 or 2 more Labour votes, but that might be proven wrong and it could be fewer than the 3.
So an aye vote in the mid to late 260s, majority against of around 100ish, with May allies once again trying to suggest 'under 100' as their margin for victory..
I assume, therefore, that in addition to the vote being to help blame Labour in the event of no deal, its purpose is to show it has more support now, so that whatever is voted on on Monday has to do even better or they will at least argue the WA should go to referendum or whatever.0 -
Though the Commons has to make up its mind on the PD firstCasino_Royale said:
The EU have also “offered” to make the PD more binding to get the WA passed.HYUFD said:
Not sure about that, it is the Withdrawal Agreement which sets the terms of the transition and its passage is needed for a transition period and to make the backstop legally binding.TheWhiteRabbit said:"There's almost no chance of getting out of the backstop ever without the political declaration being attached."
Bridgen doesn't understand does he?
We will only go into transition with both the WA and PD signed and ratified by means of resolution. So no backstop without a PD.
The PD merely gives a starting point for negotiations on the future relationship during the transition
https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-timeline/
In other words, to avoid a Tory (or Tory led) government ratting on a full CU if that’s the basis on which the WA passes.0 -
Maybe it’s just nostalgia but listening to both Maggie and Callaghan they sound like titans compared with today’s front benches.Casino_Royale said:Callaghan sounds rather competent, commanding and statesmanlike to me. Rather surprising.
Different breed back then.
0 -
If someone reached out to me I would push back.viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!0 -
What's up?viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!0 -
What home ownership does offer though is an asset and more security than rentingrcs1000 said:
High home ownership rates are no guarantee of a happy population, or a booming economy. One of the big problems Italy has had is that house prices have been declining (albeit gently) since the late 1990s. The consequence of this is that Italians see their personal balance sheets shrink every month, and it discourages spending and risk taking.HYUFD said:
It makes the point Spain for example has 80% home ownership and 20% unemployment compared to Germany which has less than 5% unemployment and lower home ownership. It also has looked at US states and found stated with lower home ownership and more private renting had lower unemployment since 1950MaxPB said:
Load of bollocks, reports by the parasites for the parasites.HYUFD said:New report says what we really need is a high-quality private rental market like Switzerland and Germany not higher home ownership, that would also improve flexibility in the economy and and keep UK unemployment down
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-home-ownership-and-what-it-really-costs-the-workforce-a4103281.html0 -
I thought it was because he was opposed to a third runway at Heathrow - and the fact he wasn’t Red Ken.Peter_the_Punter said:
Londoners are inclined to remember him as a genial Mayor whose pro-EU views chimed with the general consensus of the voting public.AmpfieldAndy said:
He is not trusted less for than of itself but for that then declaring himself a leadership candidate when he repeatedly denied he’d stand.Richard_Tyndall said:
Principle. He new what a disaster Boris would be for the country.Theuniondivvie said:
Do people think Gove performed this service on some point of principle or was it down to a chat with his missus about how the association was damaging The Gover's long term prospects?OblitusSumMe said:
Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
'But screw your courage to the sticking place,
And we'll not fail.'0 -
IndeedAmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.0 -
Thanks shows that you expect the person being asked to perform the task, please implies you hope that they will do as you asked them to...viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!0 -
It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it. Lols LIKE THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE. 🙃
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
Instead of playing games, the government should lead us out the mess they have led us into!
But, seriously, things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
In hindsight, based on each tactic they tried, the sequencing, the timings, you have to ask, did No. 10 really want UK to leave with a deal, or are they really that incompetent?
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.0 -
This is going rather off-topic, but I have few problems with pee or puke - I don't exactly go searching them out, but I can deal with their consequences with little thought. Poo is a very different matter. Sometimes even my own.Foxy said:
Yeah, poo, wee and sick are fine when you get used to them.JosiasJessop said:
I hate anything to do with poo - always have, always will. I could never be a nurse if it meant I had to wipe someone else's backside. Therefore my biggest concern about having a baby was about nappies, given that I was to be the primary carer. How would I cope?TheScreamingEagles said:
Congratulations.murali_s said:Hey folks - hope you are all well.
Been busy recently - finally became a Dad over the weekend. We are absolutely thrilled (particularly with the journey we have had to go through - miscarriages galore, multiple failed IVFs etc.).
I know some of you are parents - any tips?
Back to politics, Brexit is turing out to be disaster that many though it would be.
Never ever change the nappy, let your other half do that.
And you know what? It didn't matter. I just got on and did it. True, it wasn't pleasant, and there were some interesting colours and odours - particularly early on - but I just dealt with it. I didn't have much choice.
Real men change nappies.
(Actually, one of the realest, hardest men I know only ever changed two nappies for his kids- but that's because he was in farming, and as he was always dirty his wife thought it unhygienic for him to be changing them. I thought that was a brilliant way out of it.)
(Snip)
I'd say I'm odd, but I daresay most of us have similar oddities. I hope! 0 -
Agree. Callaghan doesn't sound like a PM on the ropes about to be turfed out of office.trawl said:
Maybe it’s just nostalgia but listening to both Maggie and Callaghan they sound like titans compared with today’s front benches.Casino_Royale said:Callaghan sounds rather competent, commanding and statesmanlike to me. Rather surprising.
Different breed back then.
Also interesting how the substance of political debate has changed - all this focus on trade, oil prices, balance of payments and industry.0 -
It did for those farmers that weren't large enough or didn't get suitably efficient quickly enough.viewcode said:
IndeedAmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Just because things are fine in NZ now doesn't mean that a lot of farmers didn't suffer and things changed.0 -
Thatcher won a majority of 40 I cannot see Corbyn matching that, if he gets in it will be the SNP.GIN1138 said:
40 years ago we were on the verge of the Thatcher revolution following a collapsing government.IanB2 said:For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.
Now we could be on the verge of a Jezza revolution following a collapsing government.
It was in any case Attlee who was the real counterpart to Thatcher from a left-wing perspective, I cannot see Corbyn matching him either. In fact I would expect a Corbyn government to be as abysmal and hapless as that of Hollande in France whose own 'socialist revolution' quickly collapsed0 -
Speaking of affluent retirees there’s a certain kind who act very badly together in groups, cackling, disrupting other diners, drinking excessively and making inappropriate comments, almost like teenagers.eek said:
Can I argue with that - unlike large parts of the rest of the UK my house is now worth the same (or less) than it was in 2004 due to the council allowing enough houses to be built to support the rising population.rcs1000 said:
High home ownership rates are no guarantee of a happy population, or a booming economy. One of the big problems Italy has had is that house prices have been declining (albeit gently) since the late 1990s. The consequence of this is that Italians see their personal balance sheets shrink every month, and it discourages spending and risk taking.HYUFD said:
It makes the point Spain for example has 80% home ownership and 20% unemployment compared to Germany which has less than 5% unemployment and lower home ownership. It also has looked at US states and found stated with lower home ownership and more private renting had lower unemployment since 1950MaxPB said:
Load of bollocks, reports by the parasites for the parasites.HYUFD said:New report says what we really need is a high-quality private rental market like Switzerland and Germany not higher home ownership, that would also improve flexibility in the economy and and keep UK unemployment down
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-home-ownership-and-what-it-really-costs-the-workforce-a4103281.html
That means that others can afford to live where I do without the worry of excessive house prices. It's nice to go out and about and see people enjoying a night out - which makes a change from the South East where it's usually retired baby boomers and other seriously rich people eating out.
Heck my brother and Sister in law earn £100k between them and still only eat out when others are paying (house prices are a killer if you didn't get on the ladder before 2002)...
My wife and I have had a couple of poor experiences over the past two years where we asked to be moved table.0 -
It’s quite interesting listening to Callaghan attacking the free market in principle, as if it’s a bad thing, and explaining the need for a command economy where the Government and Unions decide.trawl said:
Maybe it’s just nostalgia but listening to both Maggie and Callaghan they sound like titans compared with today’s front benches.Casino_Royale said:Callaghan sounds rather competent, commanding and statesmanlike to me. Rather surprising.
Different breed back then.0 -
Good point, thank youIanB2 said:
The investment consensus seems to be that the US is the most overvalued. But then the consensus is often wrong.viewcode said:For those who replied to my article, I have just converted X GBP into EUR, where X is a four-figure. Much as I would like to say it was the product of considered thought, it was simply because my USD holdings are larger and it brought my EUR up to my USD. As for the person who suggested an investment ISA biased towards American companies, it's not a bad idea, I will look at it. To the person who suggested a Betfair bet on no-deal, in order to open a betting account I will have to get permission from my employers (I changed jobs recently and I have to run it past Compliance) and that is a slow process that might not be completed in time.
0 -
She said please. Thanks after the request works.viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh!0 -
Absolutely right to be in your wonder zone.murali_s said:Thanks all for your kind words and advice.
And @Big_G, you are right, I couldn't give a monkeys about Brexit right now, just in this wonderful zone with my my family now - is that selfish or natural? - just don't know!
And @Casino_Royale, congrats! Beat me to it!
I still am today with our three now 52, 48, and 44 plus our grandchildren, 16, 10, 7 and 50 -
Did he mention the credit crunch?Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite interesting listening to Callaghan attacking the free market in principle, as if it’s a bad thing, and explaining the need for a command economy where the Government and Unions decide.trawl said:
Maybe it’s just nostalgia but listening to both Maggie and Callaghan they sound like titans compared with today’s front benches.Casino_Royale said:Callaghan sounds rather competent, commanding and statesmanlike to me. Rather surprising.
Different breed back then.0 -
IanB2 said:
What's up?viewcode said:
Parenthetically (and nothing to do with Ms Riley) I am sick unto death of people who use "Thanks" when they should have used "Please". She was making a request, not issuing a command.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another annoying thing is when counter staff say "Are you alright" when they mean "Can I help you". And don't get me started on "reach out" which is exactly wrong. And as for the phrase "bring you along/forward" for "train you" it sets my teeth on edge.
Aaargh! 0 -
Both Labour and the Tories would see defections to TIG if No Deal.dots said:It’s easy to see how Labour will take this gimmicky vote apart tomorrow.
Everyone knows what the government put in the PD. Now they have taken scissors to it, snipped that bit off and saying it’s changed now vote for it. Lols LIKE THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE. 🙃
It’s political game playing. It’s a game of trying to pass the brexit blame. It’s sixth form standard even by the standard of May’s hapless business managers.
Instead of playing games, the government should lead us out the mess they have led us into!
But, seriously, things have taken a darker turn the last few days. It’s not even entertaining anymore. If there were still bridges between government and DUP, tomorrow’s gimmick of trying to pin brexit on Labour burns those bridges down. If passed it stitches the DUP up with the backstop. It’s a tactic screaming government have given up trying to get the DUP on board. Is it not?
And if there was ever a chance of getting enough Labour MPs to make a difference, Mays resignation, prospect of harder Brexit PM and negotiation team, and the blanker the brexit cheque asking Labour MPs to sign up to has probably closed off that route for passing WA too.
In hindsight, based on each tactic they tried, the sequencing, the timings, you have to ask, did No. 10 really want UK to leave with a deal, or are they really that incompetent?
Having said all that, Labour really do have to take this last chance to avoid the no deal exit. If they keep spurning these opportunities and the result is no deal exit, its the Labour Party that dies, not the Conservatives.
TIG would probably win the next general election comfortably after the economic damage of No Deal on a SM and or CU BINO or rejoin the EU ticket and become the UK En Marche.
Indeed given Corbyn can only become PM with SNP support it may be the SNP who force the switch to SM and Customs Union BINO otherwise they will demand indyref2 if we are in a No Deal scenario and have a good chance of winning it in which case Corbyn loses power anyway0 -
I think you are being optimistic/generous. It will either be a short lived fiasco or a dangerous tragedy.HYUFD said:
Thatcher won a majority of 40 I cannot see Corbyn matching that, if he gets in it will be the SNP.GIN1138 said:
40 years ago we were on the verge of the Thatcher revolution following a collapsing government.IanB2 said:For political history buffs: BBC Parliament is now playing (sound only) all three hours of the 1979 No Confidence motion in the Labour Government. Mrs T currently moving.
The tone of debate sounded more serious back then.
Now we could be on the verge of a Jezza revolution following a collapsing government.
It was in any case Attlee who was the real counterpart to Thatcher from a left-wing perspective, I cannot see Corbyn matching him either. In fact I would expect a Corbyn government to be as abysmal and hapless as that of Hollande in France whose own 'socialist revolution' quickly collapsed0 -
This article was post earlier, but for the wage slaves amongst us here is evidence not just of EU thinking how to rescue us after no deal, but Plenty of decisions for lame duck before trexit
39 billion decisions
It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
Ambassadors agreed they would expect the UK to come back to the negotiating table “pretty soon with an ask to ensure the vital lines and procedures needed for the UK to survive”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/eu-discusses-terms-for-talks-after-no-deal-brexit0 -
"Odd" ?!? ...Perhaps Scat(ty) ....JosiasJessop said:This is going rather off-topic, but I have few problems with pee or puke - I don't exactly go searching them out, but I can deal with their consequences with little thought. Poo is a very different matter. Sometimes even my own.
I'd say I'm odd, but I daresay most of us have similar oddities. I hope!
0 -
Worth noting that Rogernomics took place after 15 years of economic stagnation, brought about by NZ losing its largest trading partner in 1973.eek said:
It did for those farmers that weren't large enough or didn't get suitably efficient quickly enough.viewcode said:
IndeedAmpfieldAndy said:
Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.Gallowgate said:
Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.AmpfieldAndy said:
A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health SecStereotomy said:
The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.AmpfieldAndy said:Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.
Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.
Just because things are fine in NZ now doesn't mean that a lot of farmers didn't suffer and things changed.
NZ farmers suffered in the short term, but have done reasonably well in the long term. NZ does have the advantage of having some of the cheapest prime agricultural land, with reliable weather and warm enough winters that grass grows midwinter, keeping winter feeding costs down. Those do not all apply here.0 -
JackW said:
"Odd" ?!? ...Perhaps Scat(ty) ....JosiasJessop said:This is going rather off-topic, but I have few problems with pee or puke - I don't exactly go searching them out, but I can deal with their consequences with little thought. Poo is a very different matter. Sometimes even my own.
I'd say I'm odd, but I daresay most of us have similar oddities. I hope! 0 -
murali_s said:
Thanks all for your kind words and advice.
And @Big_G, you are right, I couldn't give a monkeys about Brexit right now, just in this wonderful zone with my my family now - is that selfish or natural? - just don't know!
And @Casino_Royale, congrats! Beat me to it!
Many thanks.0
