politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democra
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Survivors of the Nazi holocaust in Europe, as well as Jews from other parts of the world, continued to migrate to Eretz-Israel, undaunted by difficulties, restrictions and dangers, and never ceased to assert their right to a life of dignity, freedom and honest toil in their national homeland.RodCrosby said:
I have never stated that Obama wasn't born in the USA, and I merely reject the application of a trademark coined in the 1970s to describe the complex and tragic events in Europe in the 1940s...TheLastBoyScout said:
He lives in the realms of pure fantasy that guy - thinks the Holocaust didn't happen and that Obama wasn't born in the States.Neil said:Rod will explode - having previously told us how Hillary cant win because ex-SoSs cant run for the Presidency the thought of two of them going for it could overwhelm him completely.
http://www.knesset.gov.il/docs/eng/megilat_eng.htm
Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, 14 May 19480 -
In case you missed it, today's YouGov Scottish Sub-sample.Stuart_Dickson said:
Scottish split: Lab 35%, SNP 32%, Con 16%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 32 (-1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://t.co/kY1Ktuvvsj
Lab 36, Con 30, SNP 24, LD 60 -
Actually if you talk to people in Jerusalem they say that the British Mandate was pretty beneficial (e.g. the water system was built by the Brits). A lot of the issues were caused by the French...Stuart_Dickson said:
The Middle East mess was a catastrophe created by the British Establishment. Nothing new there: they've created thousands of them.CarlottaVance said:
You started the topic by presenting it as a UK mess - I was merely adding detail..Stuart_Dickson said:
Isn't it fun how the MIddle East mess is presented as a Scottish creation because Arthur Balfour was born in East Lothian.Theuniondivvie said:
A boner fidee ethnic nationalist!CarlottaVance said:
As for the mess in the Middle East, while were bandying blame around, let us not forget where the author of the Balfour Declaration was born.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_James_Balfour0 -
All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.MarqueeMark said:AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"
Ooh you little tease!
If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!
Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?0 -
Still shows SNP well up on 2010, despite YG's idiotic weightings.TheScreamingEagles said:
In case you missed it, today's YouGov Scottish Sub-sample.Stuart_Dickson said:
Scottish split: Lab 35%, SNP 32%, Con 16%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 32 (-1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://t.co/kY1Ktuvvsj
Lab 36, Con 30, SNP 24, LD 60 -
Yes, the global climate models overestimated the warming, but the trend for global temperatures is still up (though not as fast as predcited).
The slowdown in the warming can be attributed to cyclical global patterns - the cool phase of the PDO, ENSO predominately in a neutral or La-Nina state etc.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
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Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?0 -
Right, the Israeli goal since forever has been to make it look like a proper Palestinian state that they don't control is right around the corner, but not quite happening yet. Once they admit that they intend to hang onto the territory forever they have to answer all kinds of awkward questions about how long they're going to keep the apartheid system going, and why they won't give the people who live there the vote.Charles said:Mike, you do realise that "50/50" is Israeli for "It's not going to happen but I want the other side to veto it"?
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PM me and we'll arrange it.GeoffM said:
As someone who was called an "extreme right winger" on here the other night, I assume I'm included here. I'll take that bet.murali_s said:OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1
The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.
It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.
Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?0 -
"... a mind that just can't register really big numbers ..."
Very few people understand big numbers and even fewer really big numbers. Probably a good proportion of educated people could tell you that a billion in a thousand million (US definition seems to have become generally accepted) but very few of them understand the scale of the difference. A trillion is just outside the imagination of the vast majority.0 -
Don't!TheScreamingEagles said:
Con 30Stuart_Dickson said:
Scottish split: Lab 35%, SNP 32%, Con 16%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 32 (-1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://t.co/kY1Ktuvvsj
Some of the surgers are getting on and can't take much excitement.
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Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
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I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment, so that will presumably have a massive impact on comparing these figures with previous years.AveryLP said:Public Finances
...
The smaller January surplus this year may suggest lower than expected tax revenues but is more likely to be a phasing issue. January is usually the peak month for tax receipts (corporation tax installments and Self Assessed Income Tax payments are both due in January) ONS has warned though that there can be substantial drift of receipts into February and are promising a full breakdown and analysis in next month's bulletin...
This is unfortunate, because I was hoping that the tax receipts from self-assessment would show whether the boom in self-employment is primarily a result of a genuine growth in self-initiated economic activity, or mostly a DWP ruse to reduce the unemployment numbers.0 -
If you've been following the peace process, you'll know that the current Israeli government is further away from the agreement brought in by Bill Clinton than any one since that time, and Abbas has less credibility with the Palestinians than ever. A peace deal isn't going to happen. Even if one did, it would need to get through the Senate where the Republicans will have at least half the seats and still consider every foreign policy compromise as a Neville Chamberlain sell-out. Even if he did get the deal, Kerry wouldn't have a fundraising outfit, as the one he used in 2004 was the North East machine that's now firmly committed to Clinton. In addition, the base of the party has concluded he was a poor performing candidate, and, if they don't get Clinton, would rather someone from the liberal wing of the party.
You might make some money trading odds, but this has as much chance of happening as Jon Huntsman getting the GOP nod last time.0 -
Shhh. Just let them roll with it.Theuniondivvie said:
Don't!TheScreamingEagles said:
Con 30Stuart_Dickson said:
Scottish split: Lab 35%, SNP 32%, Con 16%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: New Populus VI: Lab 38 (=); Cons 32 (-1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 13 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://t.co/kY1Ktuvvsj
Some of the surgers are getting on and can't take much excitement.0 -
And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
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You are not listening, obviously, or the point is too subtle for you... I said the use of "The H" [proprietary "the" and capital "H"] did not appear until the 1970s.CarlottaVance said:
Survivors of the Nazi holocaust in Europe, as well as Jews from other parts of the world, continued to migrate to Eretz-Israel, undaunted by difficulties, restrictions and dangers, and never ceased to assert their right to a life of dignity, freedom and honest toil in their national homeland.
http://www.knesset.gov.il/docs/eng/megilat_eng.htm
Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, 14 May 19480 -
You should try doing it in Chinese! We put the comma after every 3 zeroes - so talk in millions, billions, trillions. They put the comma after every 4 zeroes and think in terms of how many 10,000s or how many 100,000,000s. We would say 4.5 million, they would say 4,500 Wan (one Wan being 10,000). We think of their population as 1.3 billion. They think of it as 13 Yi (one Yi being a hundred million). Translating big numbers correctly into Chinese is a nightmare.HurstLlama said:"... a mind that just can't register really big numbers ..."
Very few people understand big numbers and even fewer really big numbers. Probably a good proportion of educated people could tell you that a billion in a thousand million (US definition seems to have become generally accepted) but very few of them understand the scale of the difference. A trillion is just outside the imagination of the vast majority.0 -
I wasn't aware of HMRC's extended deadline so thanks on that Oblitus. It would explain ONS's unusual reticence to back this month's figures as solid.OblitusSumMe said:
I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment, so that will presumably have a massive impact on comparing these figures with previous years.AveryLP said:Public Finances
...
The smaller January surplus this year may suggest lower than expected tax revenues but is more likely to be a phasing issue. January is usually the peak month for tax receipts (corporation tax installments and Self Assessed Income Tax payments are both due in January) ONS has warned though that there can be substantial drift of receipts into February and are promising a full breakdown and analysis in next month's bulletin...
This is unfortunate, because I was hoping that the tax receipts from self-assessment would show whether the boom in self-employment is primarily a result of a genuine growth in self-initiated economic activity, or mostly a DWP ruse to reduce the unemployment numbers.
An additional factor may be the introduction of the 45% top rate. As the self employed generally pay tax assessed on a prior year basis then this month's receipts are likely to be distorted in a similar way to last year's PAYE receipts (though less so because bonuses will pay a smaller role in the earnings of most self employed). Robert Chote has been banging on about this in his commentaries on the last two months Public Finances bulletins.0 -
And that matters because?RodCrosby said:
You are not listening, obviously, or the point is too subtle for you... I said the use of "The H" [proprietary "the" and capital "H"] did not appear until the 1970s.CarlottaVance said:
Survivors of the Nazi holocaust in Europe, as well as Jews from other parts of the world, continued to migrate to Eretz-Israel, undaunted by difficulties, restrictions and dangers, and never ceased to assert their right to a life of dignity, freedom and honest toil in their national homeland.
http://www.knesset.gov.il/docs/eng/megilat_eng.htm
Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, 14 May 1948
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The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.Theuniondivvie said:
And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
Then in December last year
Belgium: EU is closed to Scots
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece0 -
"2014 GE" - now that would be an interesting yellow box !AveryLP said:
All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.MarqueeMark said:AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"
Ooh you little tease!
If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!
Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
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There is enough uncertainty that it is reasonable to argue for adaptation rather than prevention, and there is also the advantage that it does not require comprehensive international cooperation - making it appealing to a more isolationist outlook. I don't agree with that judgement, but I think the climate debate would be a lot healthier if that was the ground it was fought on.SeanT said:
It's possible to believe in GW (I think I do), it's possible to believe in AGW (I'm open to persuasion) and still believe that we need to adapt to it, rather than fight it.CarlottaVance said:
You do know it's perfectly possible to acknowledge the data in GW without "believing" (again, the language of faith, not science) in AGW?murali_s said:OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?
You think describing sceptics as "right wing nutters" makes your case either stronger or more persuasive?
For those who look for self-interest as a primary motivation it's worth noting that an adaptation strategy is the one that involves most spending on climate science, as one requires large improvements in the precision of the predictions in order to correctly prioritise adaptation spending. It is interesting, therefore, that many climate scientists argue for prevention of global warming, even though this would go against their self-interest.0 -
"I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment... "
Really, nobody told me and nobody told my accountant either, and I got the usual January reminder from HMRC about the dire penalties I would be subject to if the paperwork wasn't filed by 31st January. If they extended the deadline that meant I didn't leave it to the last minute and I paid earlier then I actually had to. Damn, I hate doing that when it come to money to HMG.0 -
The Palestinian Authority has had presidential and parliamentary elections in 1996 and 2005 (the reason why there hasn't been any since is because Hamas and the PLO can't agree on terms to hold an election, not Israeli obstructionism) and local elections in 2005, 2010 and 2012, and of course Arabs in Israel proper have voted in every Knesset election since 1960 or so. That's a heck of a lot of voting for people who are supposedly denied the vote - more in fact than in most of the rest of the Arab middle-east - but then I've long since observed that actual facts are if anything an obstacle to discussing Israel-related issues:-/edmundintokyo said:
Right, the Israeli goal since forever has been to make it look like a proper Palestinian state that they don't control is right around the corner, but not quite happening yet. Once they admit that they intend to hang onto the territory forever they have to answer all kinds of awkward questions about how long they're going to keep the apartheid system going, and why they won't give the people who live there the vote.Charles said:Mike, you do realise that "50/50" is Israeli for "It's not going to happen but I want the other side to veto it"?
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OblitusSumMe
Is the issue not that if we spend on prevention we will anyway fail as cliamte change is outside the ability of any one country (possibly all of mankind) to control. You will have to spend on the adaptation piece anyway - and so pay twice. Is it not better to forget prevenetation and just get busy with adaptation (flood defences, irrigation schemes, etc)?0 -
You can place early orders for increased customer satisfaction.Neil said:
My prediction is for a surge in yellow box production.AveryLP said:
As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!
I can even do a changes in funding of government pension plans yellow box if you want to idle away the weekend!
But the information is so terse that it is difficult to see whether George is repairing holes or just building up provisions for future release.
If you don't already have the figures then it may be useful to get your input on what is truly going on.
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Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...CarlottaVance said:And that matters because?
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Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):TheScreamingEagles said:
The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.Theuniondivvie said:
And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
Then in December last year
Belgium: EU is closed to Scots
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
And those say that set eyes on him,
When happy, loveable was he,
And meek and sweet in company,
But those with him in battle saw
Another countenance he wore!
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That's a good point.OblitusSumMe said:
One thing to bear in mind is that he would need an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan to be reached early enough for him to throw his hat into the nomination battle.antifrank said:40/1 on John Kerry is an enterprising bet, but not for the faint-hearted. Just because it has the potential to look silly doesn't mean it's a bad bet. Our host has made money out of enough of these for me to respect this.
The Iowa caucus kicks off the formal process at the start of 2016, but how early in 2015 would Kerry need a deal secured so that it wouldn't look like he was abandoning the process halfway through to have another tilt at the Presidency?
While I accept the point also made downthread that if Hillary doesn't run then there's a vacancy for an established heavyweight with foreign policy credentials, that fits Biden too, to a degree. I disagree however that Kerry would come in disproportionately. On the contrary: if a Middle East peace process (MEPP) was going on in earnest, it would be more difficult for him to retire from that fray to enter a presidential primary race.
Also, while a MEPP settlement should boost Kerry's chances if concluded early enough (is there really time when no-one's seriously talking at the moment?), how much publicity would he get from it? Unless Obama wanted to promote him as his continuity candidate, the president will be there for all the big dealing towards the end of the process and take the credit himself. It's not like he can do much domestically and he might even finally earn that Nobel Prize he's already won.0 -
Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.RodCrosby said:
Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...CarlottaVance said:And that matters because?
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NeilNeil said:
My prediction is for a surge in yellow box production.AveryLP said:
As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!
Yesterday, I found this article from 2007, by Brian Coleman. It made me reach for the mind bleach.
Though I did like this bit
About Brian Coleman - Brian Coleman was first elected to the London Assembly in June 2000. Widely outspoken he is best known for his groundbreaking policy of removing traffic calming measures
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/brian-coleman/2007/06/lady-thatcher-gay-tory
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Look again.TGOHF said:
Looking at those NOAA maps its a curious spot of ill fortune that the warmer bits are in the middle of the sea an the colder bits are where people live - and presumably there are more weather stations...murali_s said:
Meh - now you've cherry-picked 1997 as a reference point. As you may or may not know, 1998 was a very strong El-Nino year. Why don't you remove that 'outlier' from the time series and check for trends. Yes, the warming trend has been slower in the last 15 years but it's still there!TGOHF said:
Meh - you have cherry picked "January" - how very convenient.murali_s said:OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1
The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.
It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.
Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?
"In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/
Bad luck for humans eh ?
There are no gridboxes on the globe that fall into the "record coldest" category.
There are 86 gridboxes that fall into the "record warmest" category, 28 of these are over land.
You are seeing what you want to see, rather than what is actually there. Some people might be comforted to know that such cognitive bias is a very common human failing. Or you may find it hard to accept that you are so alike your fellow man.0 -
Whoops! I must have got carried away counting the billions of Tory votes!TGOHF said:
"2014 GE" - now that would be an interesting yellow box !AveryLP said:
All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.MarqueeMark said:AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"
Ooh you little tease!
If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!
Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
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This is quite concerning. Does George not appreciate that I have risked £50 of my hard earned that he will bring PSBR ex in at a lower level than in the last financial year? He is still ahead but I frankly thought he would be out of sight by now.AveryLP said:
All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.MarqueeMark said:AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"
Ooh you little tease!
If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!
Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
The man has no sense of priorities!
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Without ever having heard of tim or SeanT - he must have had Edmund's widget on overdrive!TheWatcher said:
Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.RodCrosby said:
Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...CarlottaVance said:And that matters because?
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Regardless of who the Palestinians vote for, all the key features of the country, including the borders, are controlled by Israel.Random said:
The Palestinian Authority has had presidential and parliamentary elections in 1996 and 2005 (the reason why there hasn't been any since is because Hamas and the PLO can't agree on terms to hold an election, not Israeli obstructionism) and local elections in 2005, 2010 and 2012, and of course Arabs in Israel proper have voted in every Knesset election since 1960 or so. That's a heck of a lot of voting for people who are supposedly denied the vote - more in fact than in most of the rest of the Arab middle-east - but then I've long since observed that actual facts are if anything an obstacle to discussing Israel-related issues:-/edmundintokyo said:
Right, the Israeli goal since forever has been to make it look like a proper Palestinian state that they don't control is right around the corner, but not quite happening yet. Once they admit that they intend to hang onto the territory forever they have to answer all kinds of awkward questions about how long they're going to keep the apartheid system going, and why they won't give the people who live there the vote.Charles said:Mike, you do realise that "50/50" is Israeli for "It's not going to happen but I want the other side to veto it"?
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Or is a re-tread...TheWatcher said:
Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.RodCrosby said:
Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...CarlottaVance said:And that matters because?
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I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.Theuniondivvie said:
Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):TheScreamingEagles said:
The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.Theuniondivvie said:
And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
Then in December last year
Belgium: EU is closed to Scots
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
And those say that set eyes on him,
When happy, loveable was he,
And meek and sweet in company,
But those with him in battle saw
Another countenance he wore!
Fascinating era.0 -
Be careful to specify which temperature dataset you use. On a borderline year they will not all give the same answer to the wager.GeoffM said:
As someone who was called an "extreme right winger" on here the other night, I assume I'm included here. I'll take that bet.murali_s said:OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1
The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.
It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.
Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?0 -
To be fair my contacts in Israel (and they are on the liberal end of the spectrum) do want a solution, if only because they see hanging on for the bitter end as a long-term losing position. The real roadblock is the right of return - solve that and you could get to a overall solution pretty quickly.edmundintokyo said:
Right, the Israeli goal since forever has been to make it look like a proper Palestinian state that they don't control is right around the corner, but not quite happening yet. Once they admit that they intend to hang onto the territory forever they have to answer all kinds of awkward questions about how long they're going to keep the apartheid system going, and why they won't give the people who live there the vote.Charles said:Mike, you do realise that "50/50" is Israeli for "It's not going to happen but I want the other side to veto it"?
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The deadline was only extended for certain cases....not for everyone,.HurstLlama said:"I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment... "
Really, nobody told me and nobody told my accountant either, and I got the usual January reminder from HMRC about the dire penalties I would be subject to if the paperwork wasn't filed by 31st January. If they extended the deadline that meant I didn't leave it to the last minute and I paid earlier then I actually had to. Damn, I hate doing that when it come to money to HMG.0 -
In the Nick v Nige debate, I really hope Nige hammers Nick on Nick's crass claim that three million jobs would be lost by our leaving the EU. He really deserves a damn good slapping down over that. Get Nick on the back foot on that - and all his other scare-mongering and fanciful claims start looking very shaky too.0
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Does the Widget work on archive browsing?Neil said:
Without ever having heard of tim or SeanTTheWatcher said:
Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.RodCrosby said:
Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...CarlottaVance said:And that matters because?
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Robert Chote will release a year end forecast of PSNB ex between noon and one o'clock.DavidL said:
This is quite concerning. Does George not appreciate that I have risked £50 of my hard earned that he will bring PSBR ex in at a lower level than in the last financial year? He is still ahead but I frankly thought he would be out of sight by now.AveryLP said:
All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.MarqueeMark said:AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"
Ooh you little tease!
If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!
Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
The man has no sense of priorities!
His commentary should be an interesting read given the supplementary estimates released in the last couple of weeks although he may delay full comment on what is going on until the budget EFO.
It is quite clear to me that Osborne is managing public finances on the basis on net cash rather than the ONS headline PSNB figures. With all the shifts in expenditure and receipts going on, the NCR gets reduced by a measly £1 billion.
Too early yet to see what effect the changes will have on PSNB but I doubt that he will allow it to surge ahead of last year's figure. What he is up to is increasing government spend to match the additional cash coming in rather than using the cash receipts to reduce the deficit.
Got to keep growth going!
0 -
It's not as horrible as the thought of Coleman being in bed with an Arsenal striker.TheScreamingEagles said:
NeilNeil said:
My prediction is for a surge in yellow box production.AveryLP said:
As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!
Yesterday, I found this article from 2007, by Brian Coleman. It made me reach for the mind bleach.
Though I did like this bit
About Brian Coleman - Brian Coleman was first elected to the London Assembly in June 2000. Widely outspoken he is best known for his groundbreaking policy of removing traffic calming measures
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/brian-coleman/2007/06/lady-thatcher-gay-tory
0 -
2 of the three brave knights that sought to achieve his request were namesakes of mine. (We will skip over the bit when they managed to get to Spain when they were supposed to be going to Jerusalem)Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
0 -
OblitusSumMe said:
Look again.TGOHF said:
Looking at those NOAA maps its a curious spot of ill fortune that the warmer bits are in the middle of the sea an the colder bits are where people live - and presumably there are more weather stations...murali_s said:
Meh - now you've cherry-picked 1997 as a reference point. As you may or may not know, 1998 was a very strong El-Nino year. Why don't you remove that 'outlier' from the time series and check for trends. Yes, the warming trend has been slower in the last 15 years but it's still there!TGOHF said:
Meh - you have cherry picked "January" - how very convenient.murali_s said:OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1
The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.
It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.
Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?
"In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/
Bad luck for humans eh ?
There are no gridboxes on the globe that fall into the "record coldest" category.
There are 86 gridboxes that fall into the "record warmest" category, 28 of these are over land.
You are seeing what you want to see, rather than what is actually there. Some people might be comforted to know that such cognitive bias is a very common human failing. Or you may find it hard to accept that you are so alike your fellow man.
I never mentioned "record cold" - if warmists were to stop lying and misrepresenting people you might stop the people losing faith in your industry.
0 -
I think that they extended it only for those who wereusing self-assessment for the first time due to the child benefit claw-back. (Which will be some, but not extensive)HurstLlama said:"I recall hearing that HMRC extended the 31st January deadline for self-assessment... "
Really, nobody told me and nobody told my accountant either, and I got the usual January reminder from HMRC about the dire penalties I would be subject to if the paperwork wasn't filed by 31st January. If they extended the deadline that meant I didn't leave it to the last minute and I paid earlier then I actually had to. Damn, I hate doing that when it come to money to HMG.
0 -
The climate models match the response to the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo very well, so to say that they are 100% wrong is an obvious falsehood, even leaving aside whether the comparison of the trend has been done in an unbiased way.SeanT said:And while we're talking about global warming, and how we should change our lifestyles and develop gills etc, here is a sobering graph of 44 climate models, and their predictions of global warming, juxtaposed with What Actually Happened.
http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017d42dfdbb4970c-pi
All 44 models were wrong, and over-estimated warming; all of them. And some of them were wildly wrong. A science which gets things 100% wrong 100% of the time is not really a science, is it? It's more like astrology.0 -
Best novel I've read on the Crusades is Alfred Duggan's Knight With Armour (though I love all his books); cynical, funny and a real sense of 'Y'know, it might actually have been like that'.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.Theuniondivvie said:
Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):TheScreamingEagles said:
The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.Theuniondivvie said:
And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
Then in December last year
Belgium: EU is closed to Scots
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
And those say that set eyes on him,
When happy, loveable was he,
And meek and sweet in company,
But those with him in battle saw
Another countenance he wore!
Fascinating era.
0 -
The man has no sense of priorities!
Unusually I'm not sure what to make of this analysis of the Budget numbers.
All I know is that if Osborne doesn't have room for low and middle earner tax reliefs between now and 2015 the tories are finished, and they deserve to be.
People do not sympathise with mere numbers showing the economy is growing. They need to see the evidence in their pockets.0 -
The duck has learned to cluck - but it still waddles.TheWatcher said:
Does the Widget work on archive browsing?Neil said:
Without ever having heard of tim or SeanTTheWatcher said:
Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.RodCrosby said:
Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...CarlottaVance said:And that matters because?
0 -
Your tactical analysis is entirely accurate. However, the current Israeli government simply isn't rational like that. Likud is in the same paranoid grip that the GOP in the US is. Israel will eventually realise the game is up for endless occupation, but it won't happen for a while.SeanT said:
Likewise, on all counts.NickPalmer said:While I'm a bit sceptical about the bet, the trip sounds fascinating,and I've noticed the relative absence of extreme rhetoric in the region recently. A peace deal there would be the most important development of the last decade. Looking forward to Mike's article.
Israel needs a deal because America's power - and interest in the Middle East (and its oil) - and desire to be the world's policeman - is swiftly dwindling. Cf Syria. I'm not convinced a Democrat president would unilaterally bomb Iran even if it was proved to be very close to nukes.
I'm not convinced ANY future president will ever again put a US army on the ground, in the Middle East, unless Israel is about to be overrun.
So the American umbrella which has shielded Israel from reality is closing. Israel needs to fix a peace soon, before the odds turn against her. The boycott is also a serious and growing threat.
While he was cherry picking months, you're cherry picking years. 1997 was clearly an outlier to the trend, and unless you artificially start the time series from that point, it clearly hasn't been static for so long. There's been a pause, but not since 1997.TGOHF said:
Meh - you have cherry picked "January" - how very convenient.murali_s said:OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1
The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.
It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.
Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?
"In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/0 -
Et tu, Brute!AveryLP said:
Robert Chote will release a year end forecast of PSNB ex between noon and one o'clock.DavidL said:
This is quite concerning. Does George not appreciate that I have risked £50 of my hard earned that he will bring PSBR ex in at a lower level than in the last financial year? He is still ahead but I frankly thought he would be out of sight by now.AveryLP said:
All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.MarqueeMark said:AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"
Ooh you little tease!
If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!
Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
The man has no sense of priorities!
His commentary should be an interesting read given the supplementary estimates released in the last couple of weeks although he may delay full comment on what is going on until the budget EFO.
It is quite clear to me that Osborne is managing public finances on the basis on net cash rather than the ONS headline PSNB figures. With all the shifts in expenditure and receipts going on, the NCR gets reduced by a measly £1 billion.
Too early yet to see what effect the changes will have on PSNB but I doubt that he will allow it to surge ahead of last year's figure. What he is up to is increasing government spend to match the additional cash coming in rather than using the cash receipts to reduce the deficit.
Got to keep growth going!
0 -
As a general point, removing outliers is a perfectly normal and valid part of statistical analysis, and not necessarily a symptom of an unscientific mindset.Random said:
Seriously? Your argument is "if you remove everything that doesn't confirm to the trend (let's call it an "outlier" instead...) then the trend is obvious"? That isn't science - that's religion. It is however typical of the global warming cultists - if the facts don't fit the theory, then the facts have to change:-/murali_s said:
Meh - now you've cherry-picked 1997 as a reference point. As you may or may not know, 1998 was a very strong El-Nino year. Why don't you remove that 'outlier' from the time series and check for trends. Yes, the warming trend has been slower in the last 15 years but it's still there!TGOHF said:
Meh - you have cherry picked "January" - how very convenient.murali_s said:OT/ Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Globally, Janaury 2014 was the fouth warmest January ever recorded (time series commencing 1880) according to NOAA. The globe remains anomalously warm....
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1
The facts are overwhelming - AGW is happening - scientists know it, politicians of all hues know it, the general public know it.
It's only the right-wing lunatics on here who think the earth is not warming alarmingly.
Anyway, I'll wager anyone of the right-wing nutters who don't believe in AGW that 2014 will be in the top 5 of warmest years ever recorded. Any takers?
"In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/newsbytes-nasa-noaa-confirm-global-temperature-standstill-continues/
It does have to be done with some caution depending on the specifics of the particular situation, so discussion of whether it is a valid approach in this instance is more complicated and not something that I want to get into at this time, but your over-reaction is typical of the ...0 -
You'd better get out another yellow box for this.AveryLP said:
Now don't be silly, Ben.BenM said:
No it isn't.AveryLP said:
Central Government Net Cash Requirement is much better measure of real borrowing
Borrowing is running just £4bn lower than 2012-13.
Which raises lots of interesting questions about the real underlying strength of this very Tory looking "recovery".
The Treasury remit to the Debt Management Office for Gilt and Treasury Bill Issuance is dependent upon the Central Government Net Cash Requirement (CGNCR). At the time of the Autumn Forecast, Osborne reduced the planned amount of gilt/tbill issuance by £15.5 billion over the final quarter of this fiscal year on the basis of the first nine months CGNCR outturns. In other words, the cash position of the government was so good three quarters of the way into the fiscal year that Osborne was able to cancel 10% of the DMO's net borrowing plans (net of needs to roll over existing borrowing as gilts and bills mature)
You could argue that the wider measure of Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (PSNCR) is more properly the driver of actual borrowing but due to the interventions into the banking sector the PSNCR has consistently delivered surpluses so can be mostly disregarded for the purposes of calculating the cash needed to be raised in the markets.
As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!
PoliticsHome @politicshome
Public sector borrowing figures were worse than expected in January. http://polho.me/1hAX3l8
"The public sector finances showed a surplus of £4.7bn, down from £6bn last January, while retail sales dropped 1.5% month-on-month – the largest fall in nearly two years.
0 -
Why do people endlessly feel the need to speculate about the identity of newer posters? Especially those who have given a discreet nod in their name to earlier identities?
Posters should be judged on the content of what they write rather than on who they may or may not be.0 -
Whatever happened to Bobajob?TheWatcher said:
Does the Widget work on archive browsing?Neil said:
Without ever having heard of tim or SeanTTheWatcher said:
Little Boy Scout must have been lurking for years.RodCrosby said:
Look, there's a ban on this subject being discussed here, which is revealing in itself. The rest of the problems with "the H" construct I leave you to ponder privately...CarlottaVance said:And that matters because?
0 -
Very much so. I discovered him in cheap 2/hand paperbacks when I was a student - had had no idea of the spread of the Normans and Crusader realms more widely in places like the Morea till I read books such as Count Bohemond. His other novels are also well worth a look. In fact I must fish out my old copies and reread them ...Theuniondivvie said:
Best novel I've read on the Crusades is Alfred Duggan's Knight With Armour (though I love all his books); cynical, funny and a real sense of 'Y'know, it might actually have been like that'.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.Theuniondivvie said:
Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):TheScreamingEagles said:
The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.Theuniondivvie said:
And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
Then in December last year
Belgium: EU is closed to Scots
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
And those say that set eyes on him,
When happy, loveable was he,
And meek and sweet in company,
But those with him in battle saw
Another countenance he wore!
Fascinating era.
0 -
You'd better get out another yellow box for this.
If the deficit isn't coming down and there's no room for tax cuts, the tories can wave 2015 goodbye right now.
0 -
I've clearly less aware than you are, and I'm clearly not nuanced enough to pick up the discreet nods. There's only one poster I'm aware of that is new profile for an older one that I'm aware of, and I picked that up from their arguments/posting style rather than any clues. How many do you know of?antifrank said:Why do people endlessly feel the need to speculate about the identity of newer posters? Especially those who have given a discreet nod in their name to earlier identities?
Posters should be judged on the content of what they write rather than on who they may or may not be.0 -
OT.
Kerry wont run for president, period.
Although it wouldn't surprise me that is drafted as VP on a Democratic ticket.0 -
Yes, well, no wonder Balls is in such political difficulty - Osborne stole his policy.AveryLP said:
All I can say is that from the figures I have been looking at over the past couple of days is that Messrs. Osborne and Alexander are turning into very skillful if slippery conjurors.MarqueeMark said:AveryLP: "As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!"
Ooh you little tease!
If I were to whisper a £35 billion increase this fiscal year in unbudgetted government spending financed and offset by a matching £36 billion unbudgetted increase in cash receipts, then you might conclude St George has decided to slay the red dragon before he slays the red balance!
Someone wants to go no further than 50% deficit reduction by the time of the 2014 GE. I wonder why?
What has the £35bn been spent on? Do you not think it's a bit dishonest, given that Cameron told the voters his number one priority would be cutting the deficit?
0 -
Agree - if this extra spending is being brought forward to this year for some reason then fine - if it is at the expense of an 18p rate then GO will have failed.taffys said:You'd better get out another yellow box for this.
If the deficit isn't coming down and there's no room for tax cuts, the tories can wave 2015 goodbye right now.
0 -
On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.0
-
New SIndy Survation poll for the Mail (can't find it on the Mail website, not yet up on Survation), SNP take:
The poll found that 53.9% of respondents believe that David Cameron – as leader of the Westminster Government that the No campaign wants to leave in charge - should debate Scotland’s First Minister as part of the referendum campaign. Both the Prime Minister and First Minister are due to hold separate Cabinet meetings in the North East on Monday, giving them an easy opportunity to debate.
The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/feb/poll-majority-say-cameron-must-debate-salmond
On the Lamont point, looks like the single biggest group is agreeing with Lamont that 'Scotland is on pause'....but I guess we'll have to see the tables....0 -
No discussions of the Holocaust and no speculating/discussing on new posters being older posters. Are we clear0
-
Socrates said:
On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.
C02 helps plants grow - it isn't a dangerous poison.Socrates said:On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.
0 -
"no speculating/discussing on new posters being older posters"
May I ask what the reasoning behind this is? I won't argue, I just wanted to understand the reasoning to the rule.0 -
DavidL said:
Those bloody early SatNavs, huh?Stuart_Dickson said:(We will skip over the bit when they managed to get to Spain when they were supposed to be going to Jerusalem)
"In two leagues, take a right turn at the leper colony..."0 -
Good point and one I'd missed. Noticing the absence of something is one of the most under-rated skills in analysis.NickPalmer said:While I'm a bit sceptical about the bet, the trip sounds fascinating,and I've noticed the relative absence of extreme rhetoric in the region recently. ...
0 -
Rather ironic that the EU has brokered the deal in the Ukraine, given what sparked it all off in the first place.0
-
Osborne is a most political of Chancellors. I think we can assume that he knows the score...TGOHF said:
Agree - if this extra spending is being brought forward to this year for some reason then fine - if it is at the expense of an 18p rate then GO will have failed.0 -
It deters new posters from posting.Socrates said:"no speculating/discussing on new posters being older posters"
May I ask what the reasoning behind this is? I won't argue, I just wanted to understand the reasoning to the rule.0 -
I fear 2nd hand paperbacks may be the only way to obtain a lot of his books. A few of my favourite authors are out of print, which is slightly depressing.Carnyx said:
Very much so. I discovered him in cheap 2/hand paperbacks when I was a student - had had no idea of the spread of the Normans and Crusader realms more widely in places like the Morea till I read books such as Count Bohemond. His other novels are also well worth a look. In fact I must fish out my old copies and reread them ...Theuniondivvie said:
Best novel I've read on the Crusades is Alfred Duggan's Knight With Armour (though I love all his books); cynical, funny and a real sense of 'Y'know, it might actually have been like that'.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.Theuniondivvie said:
Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):TheScreamingEagles said:
The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.Theuniondivvie said:
And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
Then in December last year
Belgium: EU is closed to Scots
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
And those say that set eyes on him,
When happy, loveable was he,
And meek and sweet in company,
But those with him in battle saw
Another countenance he wore!
Fascinating era.
0 -
Thanks, I'll try and locate a copy.Theuniondivvie said:
Best novel I've read on the Crusades is Alfred Duggan's Knight With Armour (though I love all his books); cynical, funny and a real sense of 'Y'know, it might actually have been like that'.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm reading his Wiki now, it was a couple of years ago, I really started reading into the English and Scottish contributions to the Crusades.Theuniondivvie said:
Just looked up the Black Douglas on Wiki. Barbour's poem may anticipate the Cybernat (modesty forbids me to make a direct claim):TheScreamingEagles said:
The omen could happen again, it was in Flanders that they heard about Alfonso The IX's sojourn to the Middle East.Theuniondivvie said:
And Spain buggered it up. Not an omen I hope..Stuart_Dickson said:
Bruce.TheScreamingEagles said:Since we're talking about Scots and The Middle East.
Which Scot called his closest friend and most loyal compatriot just before he died, to his bedside and requested that the knight carry his heart to Jerusalem and deposit in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre ?
Then in December last year
Belgium: EU is closed to Scots
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1347509.ece
And those say that set eyes on him,
When happy, loveable was he,
And meek and sweet in company,
But those with him in battle saw
Another countenance he wore!
Fascinating era.
Edit: Yay it is available for the kindle0 -
Can we speculate on whether or not "new" posters might be Notts Forest supporters?0
-
Thanks.PBModerator said:
It deters new posters from posting.Socrates said:"no speculating/discussing on new posters being older posters"
May I ask what the reasoning behind this is? I won't argue, I just wanted to understand the reasoning to the rule.0 -
Oxygen helps you breathe. You can still kill people with it.TGOHF said:Socrates said:On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.
C02 helps plants grow - it isn't a dangerous poison.Socrates said:On AGW, pumping carbon into the atmosphere causes another environmental problem, acidification of the oceans, which also seems like a mistake. I've yet to hear the sceptics weigh in on this though.
PS. It might help your credibility when you debate the issue if you used an O rather than a 0 for the chemical symbol for carbon dioxide.0 -
I assume it's the same Survation poll of this week, just the secondary questions?CarlottaVance said:New SIndy Survation poll for the Mail (can't find it on the Mail website, not yet up on Survation), SNP take:
The poll found that 53.9% of respondents believe that David Cameron – as leader of the Westminster Government that the No campaign wants to leave in charge - should debate Scotland’s First Minister as part of the referendum campaign. Both the Prime Minister and First Minister are due to hold separate Cabinet meetings in the North East on Monday, giving them an easy opportunity to debate.
The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/feb/poll-majority-say-cameron-must-debate-salmond
On the Lamont point, looks like the single biggest group is agreeing with Lamont that 'Scotland is on pause'....but I guess we'll have to see the tables....
0 -
Assuming for a second that you accept the IPCC consensus as the scientific basis then my opinion is that there is not sufficiently accurate evidence either way to be certain whether prevention or adaptation will be cheaper or more effective.Patrick said:OblitusSumMe
Is the issue not that if we spend on prevention we will anyway fail as cliamte change is outside the ability of any one country (possibly all of mankind) to control. You will have to spend on the adaptation piece anyway - and so pay twice. Is it not better to forget prevenetation and just get busy with adaptation (flood defences, irrigation schemes, etc)?
There are too many large uncertainties in the climate science, the economics and the politics.
You can use a risk-based approach that will account for the first two of these uncertainties and I think that is roughly what Stern did in 2006, when he concluded that prevention would likely be the superior option. Personally, I feel there is less confidence in the economics than the climate science.
As to the politics, well that mostly comes down to different philosophical outlooks really. Sometimes international cooperation works and sometimes it doesn't, so whether you want to rely upon it depends on how large you estimate the benefits of success will be and how much you trust other countries to play fair, etc.0 -
Israel-Palestine, eh?
Well I suppose it had to be something big to knock the Indyref off the agenda.0 -
I'm looking forward to this debate. Has a date been set?MarqueeMark said:In the Nick v Nige debate, I really hope Nige hammers Nick on Nick's crass claim that three million jobs would be lost by our leaving the EU. He really deserves a damn good slapping down over that. Get Nick on the back foot on that - and all his other scare-mongering and fanciful claims start looking very shaky too.
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Provided someone is not slipping out of a wager, I cannot see a change of name as a problem. I do have a bet outstanding with tim that I might want to collect, but the result will not be in for a while.antifrank said:
Why do people endlessly feel the need to speculate about the identity of newer posters? Especially those who have given a discreet nod in their name to earlier identities?
Posters should be judged on the content of what they write rather than on who they may or may not be.0 -
Wow, most of his books are on Kindle. The modern world eh?TheScreamingEagles said:
Thanks, I'll try and locate a copy.
Edit: Yay it is available for the kindle
A few are set in the classical era, though no Hannibal afaicr.
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No - all thats published from that poll is on Currency & the EU.....and now I've read all the way to the end:Theuniondivvie said:
I assume it's the same Survation poll of this week, just the secondary questions?CarlottaVance said:New SIndy Survation poll for the Mail (can't find it on the Mail website, not yet up on Survation), SNP take:
The poll found that 53.9% of respondents believe that David Cameron – as leader of the Westminster Government that the No campaign wants to leave in charge - should debate Scotland’s First Minister as part of the referendum campaign. Both the Prime Minister and First Minister are due to hold separate Cabinet meetings in the North East on Monday, giving them an easy opportunity to debate.
The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/feb/poll-majority-say-cameron-must-debate-salmond
On the Lamont point, looks like the single biggest group is agreeing with Lamont that 'Scotland is on pause'....but I guess we'll have to see the tables....
The Scottish Government believes an independent Scotland should be a member of the European Union. If Scotland becomes independent, do you think the Scottish Government should hold a referendum on European Union membership?
Yes: 63
No: 23
Scottish Government ministers have described the comments from the President of the European Commission as “preposterous”, saying that as Scotland is already inside the EU there would be no difficulty in an independent Scotland maintaining continued membership.
Which statement do you most closely agree with?
EU: 45
Scot Govt: 34
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That's SNP spin wotthy of a LibDem bar chart. Not only does it assign the middle option (don't know) to "no", it actually contradicts itself in the same sentence ("disagreed"..."neither agreeing nor disagreeing").Theuniondivvie said:
The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.
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There is a hypothesis to be made that perhaps some accept that 'on pause' is a necessary condition until the referendum is done. If not and the being on pause has entirely negative connotations, I'm sure we'll soon see a surge in support for Johann and her party?NickPalmer said:
That's SNP spin wotthy of a LibDem bar chart. Not only does it assign the middle option (don't know) to "no", it actually contradicts itself in the same sentence ("disagreed"..."neither agreeing nor disagreeing").Theuniondivvie said:
The poll also found that a majority of people expressing an opinion disagreed with Johann Lamont’s repeated claims that Scotland is on pause during the referendum campaign, with just 44.8% backing the Labour leader’s stance, and 48.4% disagreeing or neither agreeing or disagreeing.
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A vast amount of presidential politicking is pure nonsense. Look at Biden; nonsense personified.Socrates said:
The main purpose of the VP is to step in if the President croaks. Not much sense in choosing a 70 year old for that.MikeK said:OT.
Kerry wont run for president, period.
Although it wouldn't surprise me that is drafted as VP on a Democratic ticket.0 -
You'd be surprised how many books I want to read aren't available as ebooks.Theuniondivvie said:
Wow, most of his books are on Kindle. The modern world eh?TheScreamingEagles said:
Thanks, I'll try and locate a copy.
Edit: Yay it is available for the kindle
A few are set in the classical era, though no Hannibal afaicr.
No Hannibal is not an issue, I've read all that is to be read about it, and nothing will change my mind he is so inept, he could easily be mistaken for a SLAB strategist or Andy Robinson.0 -
1 April?anotherDave said:
I'm looking forward to this debate. Has a date been set?MarqueeMark said:In the Nick v Nige debate, I really hope Nige hammers Nick on Nick's crass claim that three million jobs would be lost by our leaving the EU. He really deserves a damn good slapping down over that. Get Nick on the back foot on that - and all his other scare-mongering and fanciful claims start looking very shaky too.
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Whatever wrongs Brian may have committed, he didn't deserve that.Sean_F said:
It's not as horrible as the thought of Coleman being in bed with an Arsenal striker.TheScreamingEagles said:
NeilNeil said:
My prediction is for a surge in yellow box production.AveryLP said:
As for the "very Tory looking "recovery" you mention, Ben, my advice is to keep in touch over the weekend. You are guaranteed to be shocked at what is truly going on!
Yesterday, I found this article from 2007, by Brian Coleman. It made me reach for the mind bleach.
Though I did like this bit
About Brian Coleman - Brian Coleman was first elected to the London Assembly in June 2000. Widely outspoken he is best known for his groundbreaking policy of removing traffic calming measures
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/brian-coleman/2007/06/lady-thatcher-gay-tory0 -
Who would want to write, let alone read, a novel in which the hero is a serial loser who ends up committing suicide whilst working as a mercenary?TheScreamingEagles said:
You'd be surprised how many books I want to read aren't available as ebooks.Theuniondivvie said:
Wow, most of his books are on Kindle. The modern world eh?TheScreamingEagles said:
Thanks, I'll try and locate a copy.
Edit: Yay it is available for the kindle
A few are set in the classical era, though no Hannibal afaicr.
No Hannibal is not an issue, I've read all that is to be read about it, and nothing will change my mind he is so inept, he could easily be mistaken for a SLAB strategist or Andy Robinson.0 -
Good spot Mike, I've had fifty bob's worth to win £100 with William Hill.
If nothing else this looks like a great trading prospect.0 -
I know I am late to this discussion, but you are absolutely throwing your money with a punt on Kerry. Success in the Middle East will add nothing to his prospects. The only defeated presidential candidate to make a successful comeback was Nixon, and that was after having been Vice President and was connected to the uniquely tumultuous politics of the 1960s.
Kerry has few real friends within the Democratic establishment, he is seen even by those sympathetic to him as being an insufferable bore, pretentious, and wooden. His enemies have far worse to say about him. He enjoys being freed from the electoral cycle, which is why he has thrown himself so strongly into the Middle East. It has been said that part of why he is pushing the issue so hard is because he believes that the only reason previous Secretaries of State failed was because they were not John Kerry (though in this he shares something in common with Nixon's attitude to Vietnam).
Kerry is not going to run. The biggest threat to Hilary's nomination is the prospect of a sharp generational dividing line between a throwback to the past, HRC, and a young and fresh Republican with seemingly fresh ideas, such as Rubio. The Dems are not going to trade down a throw back to the past who stands a strong chance of winning (partly on the back of her big strength among women) for a blast from the past who carries the Swiftboated Loser tag.
If you want good arb opportunities, get your money on Ted Cruz. He is a Tea Party darling and will at some point in the cycle have some of the big mo. I have revised my opinion on Christie: I think he is toast. The bridge scandal did what an effective scandal needs to do: it confirmed in the public mind the nagging concern that has always existed about him that he is a bully. It matters little what the actual outcome of the scandal is from here on it. His USP has been shot to pieces.
At this point my money is on a Scott Walker/Steve Beshear ticket. Walker provides the conservative backbone, while Beshear (Kentucky governor who has successfully rolled out Obamacare in his state) provides the moderating influence on the ticket. It also provides the GOP with the opportunity to convincingly move on from 'repeal' to 'repair' Obamacare.
If you want a long shot, put your money on Maggie Hassan for Vice President or the Dem Veep slot.
You heard it here first.0
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